Bidenomics – Home Values Continue Dropping Quickly, Especially on West Coast – Meanwhile Rents Continue Increasing


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 25, 2022 | Sundance 

As inflation bites the working-class hard, U.S. household savings rates continue dropping fast.  When combined with drops in home values the loss in home equity compounds the issue.  American families are getting poorer much more quickly under Joe Biden’s economic policies.

According to the Wall Street Journal home values dropped in August at their highest monthly rate of decrease since 2011 {link}.  In part this is driven by higher mortgage rates which are pricing home buyers out of the market.  However, the regional impact is worse on the west coast than east or southeast.

[…] The housing market has slowed abruptly this year due to a rapid increase in mortgage rates, which has raised borrowing costs for home buyers and pushed many prospective buyers out of the market. Existing-home sales fell for eight straight months through September. (link)

As noted in The Daily Mail review of a similar analysis: “It’s Northern California that leads the way, with San Jose experiencing a drop of 10.8 percent since September, followed by San Francisco at 8.5 percent, then it’s Seattle at 8.2 percent, Denver at 5.8 percent, San Diego 5.2 percent, Portland 5.1 percent, Las Vegas 4.8 percent and Phoenix at 4.4 percent.” (link)

What we are seeing is a confluence of events, generally brought about by the outcomes of larger Biden administration policy.  Massive increases in energy costs are the result of energy policy; those increases are fueling inflation from the supply side on food, fuel, electricity, home heating etc.  Simultaneously, Fed monetary policy is driving consumer demand down.  The recession debate continues amid the economic think-tanks while Main Street outcomes show we have been in a recessionary period all year.

The majority of consumers have stopped purchasing nonessential goods and services. As a result, the only thing holding the economy together is employment.  Sooner or later, as the natural lags in the economy bite down, the lack of consumer spending (noted in increased inventories) is going to result in lay-offs and unemployment.  It’s almost a guarantee at this point once the boxcar impact of the prior supply chain shortages straightens out.

The third wave of food price increases is now here, and we are all likely starting to see those price increases in retail food stores.  Depending on how much higher energy prices go this winter (gasoline, natural gas, home heating oil etc.) the middle class will again be making tough checkbook decisions on spending.

On a MACRO level (nationwide averages) I would not be surprised to see home prices drop to where they were in the beginning of the second quarter of 2021.  Home sales have dropped quickly, and home inventories are now climbing.  Home buyers are now in the position to negotiate for much lower prices as fewer home buyers are in the market.

If you did not purchase a home in the past year, you likely have stable equity.  Depending on region, those who did purchase a home this year will have to wait quite a while before the price level returns.  Meanwhile rents continue increasing as middle-class workers are stuck between diminishing real wages (Biden inflation) and higher home borrowing costs (Biden monetary policy).

New York Supreme Court Orders Reinstatement of Employees Fired Over Vaccine Status with Back Pay


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 25, 2022 | Sundance

The New York Supreme Court has ordered reinstatement for all employees fired over their nonvaccinated status and ordered back pay for those who were unlawfully terminated from employment [Full pdf Ruling Here].

The state supreme court found that being vaccinated does not stop the spread of COVID-19, saying the vaccine mandate and firing of the non-compliant employees was “arbitrary and capricious.”  This is a strong rebuke to the totalitarian fiats created by state leaders including the state governor, mayor of New York City and health commissioner.

(SOURCE)

NEW YORK – The New York state Supreme Court has reinstated all employees who were fired for not being vaccinated, ordering back pay and saying their rights had been violated.

The court found Monday that “being vaccinated does not prevent an individual from contracting or transmitting COVID-19.” New York City Mayor Eric Adams claimed earlier this year that his administration would not rehire employees who had been fired over their vaccination status.

NYC alone fired roughly 1,400 employees for being unvaccinated earlier this year after the city adopted a vaccine mandate under former Mayor Bill de Blasio. (read more)

Iranians Fighting with Russians – This is Not a Test


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Oct 24, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Reports first circulated that Iranian soldiers were training Russians to operate drones after numerous reports of technical failures. Both Tehran and Moscow denied the allegations, but the writing was on the wall. Now, there are reports of at least ten Iranians dying from Ukrainian air strikes.

Some ask whether it would be safer for Russian soldiers to train in Iran, but they’re missing the point. The “training” is no different than fighting alongside Russian troops. Over 20 Iranian instructors have been spotted in Crimea and Kherson Oblast.

“The Russians took Iranian instructors to the territory of the temporarily occupied Kherson Region and Crimea to launch Shahed-136 kamikaze drones,” the Ukrainian Nation Resistance Center claimed. “They teach the Russians how to use kamikaze drones, and directly monitor the launch of drones on Ukrainian civilian targets, including strikes on Mykolaiv and Odesa.”

This open door is an invitation for foreign troops to fight alongside Ukraine or Russia under the premise of training. It matters not who is holding the controls as the training is taking place in an active warzone. Ukraine is already asking foreign nations to begin “testing” their military defenses on their soil, pointed at the Russians. “Today hundreds of Iranian drones are undergoing ‘test runs’ on our land, killing civilians,” the Defense Ministry wrote on Twitter. “These drones were not intended for use against Ukraine. To have a strategic advantage over its enemy, Israel should conduct a ‘test run’ of its air defenses Ukraine is the best testing ground.”

Iran could turn around and declare this an act of war or use this as an excuse to fuel the flames. If someone from the West or an Asian ally were training Ukrainian forces in a warzone, their individual government would certainly escalate the situation if Russians killed their soldiers. Iranians are already on the ground fighting alongside Russians, paving the way for other nations to join the fighting on the frontlines.

NBC Pushes Midterm Media Poll


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 23, 2022 | Sundance

NBC’s Mark Murray {Eyeroll} produces a midterm media poll {DATA HERE} to frame the 2022 election and claim a tight race for both Democrats and Republicans.  Despite collapsing economic numbers, widespread inflation and disapproval on every category, NBC finds the #1 issue for all voters is “The Threat to Democracy.”

NBC’s Chuck Todd gives the spin on the outcome:

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71% of the country say we are on the wrong track (20% approve).

57% of the country disapproves of the job Biden is doing with the economy (38% approve).

50% of the country says things will get worse (20% think will improve)….

…. But it’s a close election?…

…. And the #1 concern is “the threat to democracy?

It’s all propaganda.

Lee Smith Nails a Key Point, The Fourth Branch of Government and Media Operate Together


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 23, 2022 | Sundance |

Lee Smith makes an important point in this brief podcast excerpt. {Direct Rumble Link Here}  We have outlined his point on these pages for several years.

Essentially, the point Lee Smith drives home is how the U.S. Corporate Media, and the Big Tech monopolies, are the front force of the new national security and intelligence state.  It is a relationship that extends far beyond the customary leanings of media, and now covers a full synergistic relationship.  WATCH:

“We’re all familiar with the fact that the press has historically leaned to the left. That’s not what we’re looking at now. We’re looking at something very, very different. We’re looking at the press as being a part of the intelligence community. They are the ones who is putting these operations out there.”

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The New York Times and Politico are the public relations firms for Main Justice, the DOJ and FBI.  The Washington Post handles the needs of the Intelligence Community (IC) and the Central Intelligence Agency.  Meanwhile CNN is managed by the needs of the U.S. State Dept.   These direct relationships have been discussed here for several years.

Montage of Washington Claiming Vaccines Prevent Transmission


Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption Re-Posted Oct 22, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Joe Biden Struggles with 2024 Question During Live Broadcast


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 21, 2022 | Sundance

I’m not sure what’s more remarkable; the transparency of Joe Biden’s cognitive decline, or MSNBC broadcasting it.  Then again, this was live at around 5:30pm ET, so there wasn’t an opportunity to edit out the disturbing part.  Sundowning?

During a live MSNBC interview broadcast today, Joe Biden was asked about his decision to run for reelection in 2024.  When a short follow-up question is asked, things got weird and uncomfortable.  WATCH:

BIDEN: “It’s my intention to run again.”

MSNBC: “Dr. Biden is for it?”

BIDEN: crickets

MSNBC: (Uncomfortable) “Mr. President?”

BIDEN: (Confused) “Dr. Biden thinks that uh, my wife thinks that uh, that I uh, that, that we’re, that we’re doing something very important.”

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Twitter Stuff, Reports of Anticipated Turnover of Employees, Combined with Reports of Treasury Dept Considering CFIUS Review


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 21, 2022 | Sundance 

Whenever we begin to evaluate how the U.S. government may respond to Elon Musk buying out Twitter and changing the dynamic behind Jack’s Magic Coffee Shop, it is always worth remembering a key point.  Elon Musk is not in an adversarial relationship with the U.S. government.  Indeed, almost every Musk venture is tied into the matrix of multiple government institutions.

That said, only Elon Musk knows the full intent of his objective to utilize Twitter and his larger aspirations to open information systems to all people (Iran example).

Having listened to a lot of Musk’s explanations for his endeavors, I’ve yet to nail down how his statements mesh with the public-private partnership that forms the baseline of revenue for his various engagements.

The Washington Post is reporting that Musk may RIF (reduction in force) to 75% of Twitter employees.  “Elon Musk told prospective investors in his deal to buy the company that he planned to get rid of nearly 75 percent of Twitter’s 7,500 workers, whittling the company down to a skeleton staff of just over 2,000.” {link}

(WaPo) […] On Thursday evening, Twitter’s top lawyer Sean Edgett sent out a note to all employees saying the company did not have any confirmation from Musk about his plans. Twitter’s own, smaller-scale “cost savings discussions” were put on hold once the merger agreement was signed, Edgett said, according to an email viewed by The Post.

In internal Slack groups, Twitter employees reacted to the news with anger and resignation, supporting each other and making jokes about the turmoil of the past few months, according to people familiar with the conversations.

Twitter and Musk are expected to close the purchase by Oct. 28. Planning for the closing is moving forward in apparent good faith after months of legal battles, say people familiar with the negotiations who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. If the deal closes, Musk would immediately become Twitter’s new owner. (read more)

Meanwhile Bloomberg was reporting yesterday the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US (CFIUS), a Treasury Dept agency, was considering a national security review of the purchase due to foreign nationals investing and participating in the funding mechanisms for the buyout.  However, Bloomberg updated that angle today noting any CFIUS review would be unlikely:

(Bloomberg) Alarm over Elon Musk’s recent Russia-friendly tweets is driving Biden administration officials to explore using a secretive review panel to assess the national-security risks of his business interests.

Yet experts say that deploying the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US to investigate Musk’s dealings — including his pending $44 billion purchase of Twitter — is unlikely to work and would face legal challenges. 

There may be an argument for some sort of CFIUS review, but it’s thin, according to Emily Kilcrease, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security. The panel would only get involved if foreign investors were taking a controlling stake in the new company, she said, something Musk doesn’t appear ready to allow.

CFIUS has the right to look at foreign investors, not Musk, Kilcrease said. “So if there’s concerns around Musk, CFIUS is a really messy, imperfect tool to try to deal with that — and I suspect would be subject to legal challenge,” she said. (read more)

Two things about Twitter and the U.S. government are true, and that makes predicting where this ends up quite challenging to game out.

♦First, the U.S. intelligence apparatus is actively involved in the background operations of Twitter.  The extent of the IC involvement may be debatable, but the IC being involved in Twitter is fundamentally true.

♦Second, if the U.S. government wanted to stop Elon Musk from purchasing Twitter, they could – very easily.  As noted, Musks network of business operations is heavily dependent on a partnership with the U.S. government (SpaceX, Starlink, Tesla, etc.)  The State Dept, Pentagon, NASA, FAA, and various intelligence agencies are all parts of a deep network of relationships with Musk’s organizations.

The fact that the U.S. government does not intervene in any Musk effort, including Twitter, is not evidence of Musk being outside the system.  Factually, it would be challenging to find another company with tentacles as wide, far reaching and connected to the U.S. government.

Musk is purchasing Twitter because the U.S. government wants to allow Musk to purchase Twitter.  Musk may be ‘dirty dancing‘ with the government while trying to retain the patina of an outsider, but the network of his company attachments to the U.S. government run counter to that outlook.

Again, I don’t know what Musk’s intent is, and hopefully the Twitter outcome is something much more open and transparent than currently exists.  However, that said, we should not assign too much weight to any media outline of the dynamic until we have actual reference points to any possible change.