Category BIDENomics

Oct 14 2022

New Interview: The Plot to Seize Russia


Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Oct 14, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Watch the video above or click here to listen to my latest interview.

Commentary from Rico Potkaars:

"Historian and Economist Martin Armstrong, as a computer programmer created the system called socrates that analyses history, current affairs and the flow of money and extrapolates to what may lie ahead. It gave him the nickname ‘the Forecaster’ and a documentary that to this day is forbidden in the USA.

Armstrong through FOIA retreived information from the Clinton Library about what happened after the Soviet Union fell. He’s written that down in a book called ‘the Plot to Seize Russia.

In this interview we discuss his upcoming book, the current state of collapsing global finance and the inescapable war on Russia as a result of that.."
Oct 14 2022

Grand Theatrics on Final Day, J6 Committee Votes Unanimously to Subpoena President Trump


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 13, 2022 | Sundance

The J6 Committee attempted to culminate their super serious grand theatrical performance with their closing effort.  A vote to subpoena President Trump and compel him to testify before the sham committee.   The made-for-television production was as ridiculous as it sounds.  WATCH:

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There is no precedent for the legislative branch to subpoena a former President of the United States, the executive branch.  No court, including the Supreme Court, would validate a congressional subpoena against the President.  The separation of powers would not permit the enforcement mechanism and there is no constitutional authority within the legislative branch to compel the executive. Period.

As a result, the effort of the J6 committee is essentially a made for television performance intended to create some goofy October surprise in advance of the November midterm election.  The transparency of the insufferable political nonsense is clear.   President Trump responded via Truth Social:

As even Politico admits, “There is little precedent for such a move against a former president, which would raise thorny separation of powers issues that have rarely, if ever, been litigated. Only one former president has ever been subpoenaed by Congress — Harry Truman in 1953 — and he defied the summons, contending it would set a dangerous separation-of powers precedent.”

The committee will likely create some ridiculous multi hundred-page report, created under the auspices of some authority they have manufactured out of thin air.  The entire enterprise has been a massive waste of taxpayer funds as the baseline for the committee itself is nothing more than a partisan election effort.

Even die-hard democrats acknowledge the pantomime is a grand waste of time.

Oct 14 2022

NBC Nibbles Carefully During Report on Fall Harvest Inflation


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 13, 2022 | Sundance

In this brief segment on fall harvest inflation, NBC notes consumer prices for food stuffs continue increasing regardless of the economic action by the Biden administration. The reason is very simple and is outlined within the segment by Jacob Goebbert, the Goebbert’s farm general manager.  WATCH:

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The current inflation is embedded in the cost of products, because it’s a supply side issue.

Financial “experts” can shout all day long about the fiscal policy (spending) being the origin of inflation (ie. demand side), they’re wrong.  Our current inflation cycle, most notably evident within massive increases in food prices, is a supply side issue created by the increased energy costs.  Full stop.  It’s a Biden policy outcome.

Oct 14 2022

Social Security Administration Announces 2023 Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) at 8.7 Percent, Biggest Inflation Driven Increase Since Jimmy Carter Era


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 13, 2022 | Sundance

Joe Biden’s economic and energy policies have resulted in another record matching former President Jimmy Carter.  The Social Security Administration (SSA) has announced an inflation driven increase in SAA benefits of 8.7% beginning in January 2023.  This is the largest cost of living adjustment in 40 years.

(Social Security Administration) – Approximately 70 million Americans will see a 8.7% increase in their Social Security benefits and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments in 2023. On average, Social Security benefits will increase by more than $140 per month starting in January.

Federal benefit rates increase when the cost-of-living rises, as measured by the Department of Labor’s Consumer Price Index (CPI-W). The CPI-W rises when inflation increases, leading to a higher cost-of-living. This change means prices for goods and services, on average, are higher. The cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) helps to offset these costs.

We will mail COLA notices throughout the month of December to retirement, survivors, and disability beneficiaries, SSI recipients, and representative payees. But if you want to know your new benefit amount sooner, you can securely obtain your Social Security COLA notice online using the Message Center in your personal my Social Security account. You can access this information in early December, prior to receiving the mailed notice. Benefit amounts will not be available before December. Since you will receive the COLA notice online or in the mail, you don’t need to contact us to get your new benefit amount.

If you prefer to access your COLA notice online and not receive the mailed notice, you can log in to your personal my Social Security account to opt out by changing your Preferences in the Message Center. You can update your preferences to opt out of the mailed COLA notice, and any other notices that are available online. Did you know you can receive a text or email alert when there is a new message waiting for you? That way, you always know when we have something important for you – like your COLA notice. If you don’t have an account yet, you must create one by November 15, 2022 to receive the 2023 COLA notice online. (more)

A 25% increase in the rate for those who qualify for federal food stamp assistance….

An 8.7% increase in the rate for those who qualify for Social Security benefits….

Meanwhile real wages decreased 3.8% in September and the borders are wide open for cheap labor to pour in.

Oct 14 2022

September Consumer Price Index Shows Inflation Continuing to Rise More Than Expected, Fed Raising Rates Having No Impact Because it is NOT Demand Side Inflation


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 13, 2022 | Sundance

The Bureau of Labor and Statistics released the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) today [DATA HERE].  The financial and business media call the continued rise of consumer inflation “unexpected,” however, the results are not a surprise to those who are not pretending.

This CNBC headline highlights the economic pretense still entrenched: “Inflation increased 0.4% in September, more than expected despite rate hikes.”  Those who are not pretending fully understand the economic dynamic, but you will not find reality expressed by the mainstream media.

FED rate hikes can only impact the demand side of the inflation issue. U.S (and global) inflation is NOT the result of excess demand. It has not been driven by demand for over a year.  The root cause of inflation is on the supply side. That root is grounded in the energy policy making everything entering the marketplace more expensive.

The historic rise in energy prices; the result of Joe Biden’s specific energy policy to limit oil, gas and coal as energy resources; are what have driven inflation throughout the economy.  The monetary policy (Fed policy) continues to pretend this dynamic does not exist.  The FED is trying to support the political policy, but the bloom is off the ruse.

Overall inflation increased 0.4% in September, leading to a result of 8.2% year over year.  Food and energy prices continue driving inflation, additionally core inflation (everything except food and energy) continues to be driven by the originating issue of extreme energy costs.

Everything costs more because energy costs more.  That is the reality of this inflation issue.

[Modified Table-1, removing the noise]

(CNBC) […] “The Federal Reserve has made it very clear they’re committed to price stability, they’re committed to reducing the inflationary pressures,” said Michelle Meyer, chief U.S. economist at the Mastercard Economics Institute. “The more inflation comes in above expectations, the more they’re going to have to prove that commitment, which means higher interest rates and cooling in the underlying economy.”

Another large jump in food prices boosted the headline number. The food index rose 0.8% for the month, the same as August, and was up 11.2% from a year ago.

That increase helped offset a 2.1% decline in energy prices that included a 4.9% drop in gasoline. Energy prices have moved higher in October, with the price of regular gasoline at the pump nearly 20 cents higher than a month ago, according to AAA.

Closely watched shelter costs, which make up about one-third of CPI, rose 0.7% and are up 6.6% from a year ago. Transportation services also showed a big bump, increasing 1.9% on the month and 14.6% on an annual basis. Medical care services costs rose 1% in September.

The rising costs meant more bad news for workers, whose average hourly earnings declined 0.1% for the month on an inflation-adjusted basis and are off 3% from a year ago, according to a separate BLS release.  Inflation is rising despite aggressive Federal Reserve efforts to get price increases under control. (more)

I feel like we are living in a parallel universe, where this grand game of pretense continues.

Every financial pundit knows the root cause of inflation is Joe Biden’s energy policy, yet they maintain the lies in order to protect the regime.

Raising interest rates in a supply side inflation economy only does one thing, it makes the economy contract faster.  The only reason to intentionally shrink the economy is to try and reduce the demand for energy resources as part of the “transition to a green economy.”  Together, the Biden administration and Federal Reserve are trying to lower economic output to meet a lowered amount of energy being produced.  That is the reality of our situation.

They are destroying the working and middle class in order to chase their climate change agenda.  These people must be removed from power.

Oct 14 2022

Real Average Hourly Wages Continue to Decline as Inflation Destroys Economy and Now Hours Worked is Contracting


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 13, 2022 | Sundance

The Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) released the September wage report [DATA HERE] delivering worse economic news for workers.

Real wages are dropping at a historic rate as inflation continues to rise and as a result wages buy less.

[BLS] “Real average hourly earnings decreased 3.0 percent, seasonally adjusted, from September 2021 to September 2022. The change in real average hourly earnings combined with a decrease of 0.9 percent in the average workweek resulted in a 3.8-percent decrease in real average weekly earnings over this period.” (link)

REAL WAGE CHART:

As the Biden economic/energy policy and Federal Reserve monetary policy merge together, the economy shrinks.  As the economy shrinks, fewer goods and services are purchased.  As less consumer goods are purchased, employment hours drop.  As employment hours drop, wages decline.

Declining wages combined with increased inflation forms the perfect storm against middle-class and working-class families.  This dynamic means lowered income and higher prices for essential goods and services like food, fuel, energy and housing.  It’s not difficult to see why this is happening.

The declining wage rates, and the more substantive drop in real wage rates due to massive inflation, are specifically hitting the lower tier of the working class harder.  Yet despite this, Biden is intent on importing even more economic migrants to put even more downward pressure on wages for the working class.

These are very real outcomes of policy.  Working class Blacks and Latinos will feel this even more, yet this is the special interest group that Democrats claim to support.  The reality is exactly opposite from the narrative sold by the Biden administration.

The Democrats know this. These outcomes are not accidental; they are a feature not a flaw in their policy.  This is why they need to keep spending to retain the ruse.

There’s no way around this.  Despite the pundit and financial class selling a counter-narrative, home prices will crash, and unemployment will go up.  I know this is directly against the current talking points, but the statistical reality is clear.

CTH was the first place who said a year ago that home sales will plummet, that is starting to happen right now.  There’s no way for it not to happen, the big picture tells us why.

Oct 13 2022

Leading Edge of Field to Fork Inflation Starts to Arrive in September Producer Price Index


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 12, 2022 | Sundance 

The “Producer Price Index” (PPI) is essentially the tracking of wholesale prices at three stages: Origination (commodity), Intermediate (processing), and then Final (to wholesale). Today, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) released September price data [Available Here] showing another 8.5% increase year-over-year in Final Demand products at the wholesale level.  However, that’s not the bad news in this data.

While the overall September PPI was higher than expected at 0.4%, the Final Demand Producer Price for food products in September was a whopping 1.2% (14.4% annualized).

The BLS notes the driver by saying, “a major factor in the September increase in prices for final demand goods was a 15.7-percent advance in the index for fresh and dry vegetables. Prices for diesel fuel, residential natural gas, chicken eggs, home heating oil, and pork also moved higher.”

That’s a 15.7% increase in price, in one month, for fresh and dry vegetables.  Annualized that’s a rate of price increase of 188.4% for vegetables.   Remember the warning about farm costs (energy, fertilizer, fuel) driving field to fork inflation at harvest?  This is the leading edge of that third wave of food price increases.

I have modified BLS Table-2 to focus specifically on food costs.  The data is on left.

You will note that ‘row crops’ are the big drivers along with grain and seed products.  This is exactly as we predicted it would be because those specific farming costs are the ones with greatest increase from energy, fuel, fertilizer, weed and insect control, and diesel costs.

All of those higher costs have been growing in the fields and will now surface at harvest.   The higher farm costs transfer from the field to the fork via the food supply chain.  This is only the leading edge of the price increase.

In October 2021 we first warned of the food price increases coming in distinct waves.  The first was Jan, Feb and March 2022.   The second wave was May through July 2022.  This third wave will be bigger than the first two and starts arriving this month, October 2022.

People laughed at me when I said in late 2022 eggs were going to reach .50¢ EACH ($6/doz).

Well, in September the price of fresh eggs jumped 16.7% in a single month.  That’s an annualized rate of price increase for eggs over 200%.

With hindsight you can clearly see the three waves of food price increases (BLS Table A):

Get ready and shop smart.

The October, November and December price increases in the grocery store are going to make the prior fresh food increases look small, as the full increased costs of farming operations starts to arrive at the supermarket.   Unfortunately, this will coincide with a wave of gasoline price increases, and the prices of natural gas are already skyrocketing.

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Oct 11 2022

Connecting Things – Konnech Election Compromise, CCP Infiltration, CEO Arrest, True The Vote and Recent Deep State Misinformation Efforts


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 10, 2022 | Sundance 

Major Hat Tips to Rasmussen [link], Kanekoa News [link] and Catherine Englebrecht of True the Vote [link].

CTH often says don’t get so close to any granules that you miss the big picture.  Rasmussen Reports has drawn attention to that big picture, the timeline tells the story, and with recent announcements about ‘misinformation’ and ‘disinformation’ triggers, it is worth putting the details of the entire dynamic into context.  I would consider all these issues easily connected.

First, it is important to note how the public impression is constructed using the affiliations and relationships CTH continually points out.  When the FBI/DOJ need to get out in front of an issue they use the New York Times (and Politico) to establish the defensive and offensive narrative.   [The State Dept use CNN, and the CIA use the Washington post] These are constants in an ever-changing world of information warfare.

♦On October 3rd New York Times journalist Stuart Thompson writes a hit piece against Catherine Englebrecht and True The Vote, written to cast their election review efforts as conspiracy theories. [link]

♦24 hours later, October 4th, the CEO of  Konnech – a company specializing in proprietary PollChief software to manage election workers – was arrested. [link] Konnech Corporation Chief Executive Officer Eugene Yu was arrested for exploiting access to U.S. election data, including election worker information, and transferring the files to China.

I guarantee journalist Stuart Thompson was used as a tool by FBI officials who knew the arrest was forthcoming.  Essentially, the arrest of Eugene Yu was based on the exact claims of Chinese datamining that Catherine Englebrecht and Gregg Phillips had been outlining since late 2020.  [link] The FBI was/is working to diffuse the truth of U.S. election compromises that True the Vote has been outlining.

After the arrest of Eugene Yu (October 6th) the New York Times had to try and hide their useful work and affiliation on behalf of the political FBI by posting this update.  The transparency of the coordinated effort is brutally obvious:

Editors’ Note, Oct. 6: After this article was published, the chief executive of Konnech, Eugene Yu, was arrested in connection with an investigation into the possible theft of personal information about poll workers. In communications with The Times for this article, neither Mr. Yu nor a spokesman for Konnech said that the company was the subject of an investigation. They also asserted that all the company’s data was stored on servers in the United States; prosecutors in Los Angeles, who brought the charges against Mr. Yu, said that they had found some company data stored on servers in China. The Times is continuing to report on this story. (link)

A familiar pattern: (1) Write a requested ‘conspiracy theory’ hit piece.  (2) Immediately watch the reality of the next event confirm the ‘conspiracy theory’.  (3) Attempt to recover credibility after the disinfecting sunlight exposes the motive of the effort.  This is what ideological narrative engineers do in their relationships with the corrupt system operators within government.

The FBI takes the information provided by True The Vote, assembles the evidence that supports the claims by the voting integrity watchdog, then takes the information up to the DC FBI leadership and almost immediately the switch is triggered.  True The Vote now becomes the target of the political FBI.  We have watched this outline numerous times, only this example is brutally obvious.

So, we have Chinese Communist Party (CCP) infiltration -via software exploitation- into U.S. election systems and databases.   That’s the bottom line.

Additionally, the FBI is covering up the issue and trying to deflect from the severity of the problem (perhaps to them it is not a problem) by hiding the truth.  Once again, the FBI is weaponized against what they consider “domestic threats,” honest Americans.  Yeah, we have a major institutional problem, and the corruption is metastatic.

It is then appropriate to add another ‘big picture’ layer to the issue….

…Nothing has been done to correct the election integrity issue.  With the U.S. midterm elections taking place only a month after this explosive development unfolds, there is nothing visible to reflect any emergency action has been taken to mitigate the compromise.  Which takes us to the latest issue.

Big Tech, Social Media and even electronic payment processors (PayPal) start beating the drums about using their vast power to target anyone who they would identify as pushing ‘misinformation‘ and/or ‘disinformation‘ about the 2020 election itself.

Now, this latest round of service term updates (2022) should be contextualized against the November 2020 service term updates which included targeting for any individual, site or content that questioned U.S. election integrity.

Put it together, stand back and you can make a solid argument the private sector institutions that are in alignment with corrupt government efforts are proactively positioning to shut down anyone who will research and outline the flawed and/or manipulated outcomes in the 2022 midterm elections.   We have the 2020 background -and major social media purge- as context.

I’m not sure what the solution is, but everyone needs to be on high alert at a precinct level in this election.

Oct 10 2022

Dallas Fed: Over Half of Americans Experienced Real Wage Declines This Year


Armstrong Economics Blog/Inflation Re-Posted Oct 10, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The Dallas Federal Reserve found that the decline in real wages is at a severity not seen in 25 years. Simply put, when adjusted for inflation, American’s paychecks are down despite wages going up. The median decline in real wages surpassed 8.5% this September.

"How severe are the losses for workers experiencing negative real wage growth? For the 53.4 percent of such workers in second quarter 2022, the median decline (that is, half of the declines were larger and half smaller) in real wage growth was 8.6 percent."

After examining real wages over the course of 12 months, the Dallas Fed found that 53.4% of all workers experienced real wage declines. Additional taxes under Biden have added to real wage decline as well. Peter C. Earle of the American Institute for Economic Research estimates that someone earning $70,000 annually now has $4,500 less in buying power in New York. “The bill for the Covid mitigation policies is due,” Earle said. “Record levels of fiscal and monetary policy expansion in the first half of 2020 are wrecking the purchasing power of the dollar. Thus even without a pay cut, wage earners are effectively earning less over time.”

The average median decline over the past 25 years has been 6.5% with real wage declines reaching between 5.7% to 6.8%. Inflation is simply too severe to compensate for any additional wages. The Fed continued to say:

"Despite the stronger wage growth due to the tightness of the labor market, a majority of workers are finding their wages falling even further behind inflation. For workers who experienced a decline in their real wage in second quarter 2022, the median decline was 8.6 percent.

While the past 25 years have witnessed episodes that show either a greater incidence or larger magnitude of real wage declines, the current time period is unparalleled in terms of the challenge employed workers face."
Oct 9 2022

HUGE: The Feds Now Have Enough Information To Charge Hunter


Dinesh D’Souza Published originally on Rumble on October 7, 2022 

This could be big if the Fed’s are honest