Category Destruction of the Supply Chain

Jul 29 2022

To Lower Natural Gas Use World’s Largest Chemical Company Announces Making Less Ammonia, Fertilizer Production Will Shrink Further


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 28, 2022 | Sundance 

The energy crisis in Germany is now a confluence of terrible events that will snowball well into next year.

The world’s largest chemical company, BASF, has announced they will cut down the production of ammonia in order to use less natural gas.

In the short term this will help Germany build up natural gas supplies to survive a cold winter with predicted rationing still planned.  However, in the long term the shortage of ammonia means less fertilizer which will mean future shortages and increased costs for farmers; ultimately creating lower yields next year.

FRANKFURT, July 27 (Reuters) – Germany’s BASF (BASFn.DE), the world’s largest chemical company, is cutting ammonia production further due to soaring natural gas prices, it said on Wednesday, with potential ramifications from farming to fizzy drinks.

Germany’s biggest ammonia maker SKW Piesteritz and number four Ineos also said they could not rule out production cuts as the country grapples with disruption to Russian gas supplies.

Ammonia plays a key role in the manufacturing of fertiliser, engineering plastics and diesel exhaust fluid. Its production also yields high-purity carbon dioxide (CO2) as a byproduct, which is needed by the meat and fizzy drinks industries.

“We are reducing production at facilities that require large volumes of natural gas, such as ammonia plants,” BASF Chief Executive said in a media call after the release of quarterly results, confirming an earlier Reuters report.

[…] Unlike many European countries, Germany has no liquefied natural gas (LNG) port terminals to replace Russian pipeline gas. That means companies are under political and commercial pressure to reduce gas intensive activities if gas deliveries are cut further.

[…] Russia resumed pumping gas via its biggest pipeline to Europe, Nord Stream 1, on July 21 after a 10-day maintenance outage, but Gazprom (GAZP.MM) on Monday said supplies to Germany would drop to just 20% of capacity. (read more)

Like I told Olaf, food is so overrated…

Jul 29 2022

Secretary Yellen Reminds Good Citizens Their “Household Finances are Strong”, We are Experiencing Abundance and Not Being Happy is Disinformation


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 28, 2022 | Sundance

July 28, 2022 | Sundance | 134 Comments

Comrades, Secretary Janet Yellen reminds everyone how important it is to smile and support the policies of Dear Leader as they manage our overwhelming happiness through this period of exceptionally wonderful abundance.

The secretary reminds us that our “household finances are strong” and we have good employment to keep ourselves industrious and valuable on behalf of the state.  WATCH:

The beet and potato harvest will provide soup for everyone, but only if we continue to do our best.  All of the best comrade citizens are cheerful and happy.

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“I’m told that’s what it looks like… but we just don’t see it”…

Jul 28 2022

The Power of Siberia


Armstrong Economics Blog/China Re-Posted Jul 28, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Sanctions strengthened Putin and caused “unfriendly nations” to form a closer alliance against the West. As the West suffers from an energy crisis with no solution in sight, Russia is benefitting from this in more ways than one. You may have heard of the China–Russia East-Route Natural Gas pipeline or the Yakutia–Khabarovsk–Vladivostok pipeline. Construction was approved in 2007, and in 2012, Putin ordered Gazprom to begin construction and renamed the project “Power of Siberia.” China and Russia signed a 30-year deal for $400 billion in 2014, and by December 2019, the pipeline was functional.

The mainstream media focuses on the failure of the Nord Stream 2 Pipeline at the hands of German politicians but forgets that Russia has alternative options for exporting fuel. Deliveries through the Power of Siberia have only reached $3.81 billion since December 2019, but China and Russia have plans to ramp up distribution. China received 16.5 billion cubic meters of gas from the pipeline in 2021. The deal has become so lucrative that Beijing and Moscow created a second pipeline – the Power of Siberia 2. This could double exports from Russia to China with a pipeline that would pass through Mongolia as well.

In the first six months of 2022, Gazprom exported 7.5 billion cubic meters of gas to China, marking a 63.4% uptick in volume. Prior to the invasion of Ukraine in early February, China and Russia agreed to ramp up distribution by 10 billion cubic meters. Reuters believes this could increase sales by $37.5 billion in the next 25 years, but this could increase given the high demand and low availability.

The West, namely Europe, needed Russian energy; Russia did not need Europe. President Biden admitted long ago that sanctions do not work, but in this instance, they completely backfired and have left the West with no leverage over Russian energy.

Jul 28 2022

Domestic Exodus from US Cities


Armstrong Economics Blog/Real Estate Re-Posted Jul 28, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The US Census Bureau reported that 8.4% of Americans moved in 2021, beneath the 9.3% who moved at the height of the pandemic panic in 2020. Numbers for 2022 may show an uptick in migration to the suburbs or rural areas. Our models indicate that overheating in the housing market will be less prevalent in less populated areas as we are not merely dealing with housing inflation but also mass domestic migration.

Housing may be cheaper in rural areas, but there are additional costs associated with living in the country. There is no public transportation, and people must travel longer distances for work, groceries, shopping, health care, and more. Energy prices are sky-high, and simple trips cost significantly more. Iowa State University professor Dave Peters, as reported by the AP, has been studying the impact inflation has had on rural America. Peters estimates that rural households pay $2,500 more per year for gas alone compared to those living in cities.

Still, prices for housing in the country v the city more than makeup for increased energy costs. Remote work has made rural living a prospect for many Americans. The National Association of Realtors found that rural areas saw a 54.6% uptick in inbound moves in 2021, followed by micropolitan areas (i.e., small towns) at 53.8%.

In January, the Association of Equipment Manufacturers (AEM) said that certain remote workers were enticed by rural life after pandemic burnout. They found that people were seeking to abandon the hustle and bustle of city living, citing lower living costs, safer environments, fewer people, no traffic, lower housing prices, different cultures, and politics.

Gone are the days of people flocking to the cities for opportunities. As long as there is an internet connection, the modern American can work from anywhere. As the average potential buyer is priced out from their hometown, the prospect of rural or small town life is increasingly enticing.

Jul 28 2022

Tucker Carlson Outlines Dueling Insurrections and Two Tiers of Justice


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 27, 2022 | Sundance 

Tucker Carlson used his opening monologue to compare and contrast the different responses from the DOJ to Donald Trump vs Joe Biden.  Carlson outlined the different response from the DOJ/FBI toward the pro-violence statements by various democrat politicians to the DOJ/FBI response currently underway to target Donald Trump.

Essentially, what this boils down to is a system of two-tiered banana republic style justice.  All efforts are exhausted to avoid targeting democrat politicians, and all DOJ/FBI efforts are exhausted to manipulate the targeting of republicans.  The same selective targeting and investigating holds true based on the geographic venue for criminal conduct. WATCH: 

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Jul 28 2022

Joe Manchin and Chuck Schumer Strike a Deal, $370 Billion for Green New Deal Energy Transition, Tax Increases to Pay for it and More IRS Agents


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 27, 2022 | Sundance

Two weeks ago, CTH warned everyone that Joe Manchin’s torpedoing of the $500 billion Green New Deal senate spending program was a head fake; he was always going to sign up to expand the control of the federal government over energy use.  Today Manchin and Chuck Schumer made it official.

The people operating the “energy transition” levers will get $370 billion to spend on bigger windmills, more solar panels and new energy programs to eliminate coal, oil and natural gas.  They will pay for it by raising taxes and hiring a new army of IRS enforcement officials.  In exchange for his vote, the federal government will pay increased health insurance subsidies for West Virginians and pass out lower priced medications.

There you go. Exactly as predicted.  Energy inflation will continue as the energy transition becomes a permanent feature.  Ironically, Joe Manchin made them change the name to “The Inflation Reduction Act,” and pushed the effective dates for all renewals past the 2024 election (where he plans to be a candidate against Gavin Newsom).

WASHINGTON – Joe Manchin and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer on Wednesday reached a deal on a bill that includes energy and tax policy, a turnaround after the two deadlocked earlier this month in talks on Democrats’ marquee party-line agenda. In a joint statement, the two Democrats said the legislation will be on the Senate floor next week. It includes roughly $370 billion in energy and climate spending.

[…] The duo said their bill, dubbed “The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022,” would “fight inflation, invest in domestic energy production and manufacturing, and reduce carbon emissions by roughly 40 percent by 2030.” Moreover, as part of the agreement announced Wednesday, Schumer and Speaker Nancy Pelosi agreed to pass legislation governing energy permits.

[…] Democrats will raise revenues for the legislation by imposing a 15 percent corporate minimum tax, increasing IRS enforcement, reducing drug prices and closing the so-called carried interest loophole. Notably, the legislation also extends the Affordable Care Act subsidies through the 2024 election and the first term of Joe Biden’s presidency, taking a big political headache off the table for Democrats. (more)

Look deeper into the people in Joe Manchin’s life that are tied to the healthcare industry.  There you will find the familial beneficiaries of the deal. “Besides being Joe Manchin’s daughter, Heather Manchin Bresch, born 1969, spent several years as the CEO of Netherlands-based pharmaceutical company Mylan. She held the post from 2012, but stood down in November 2020, as a result of the company’s merging with Pfizer’s Upjohn outfit. Upon assuming the role, Heather Mamchin became the first woman to run a Fortune 500 pharmaceutical company.” LINK

The scheming strategery of Joe Manchin is as predictable as the scheming strategery of Mitch McConnell.

The two wings of the UniParty duck seem still on the surface.  This type of ploy is exactly how DC is able to operate, paddling forward furiously, just below the surface; and almost no one can see what is happening.

Once you see the strings on the political marionettes, you can never return to that moment in the performance when you did not see them.  However, because too few people see them, almost everyone congregates in the lobby during the mid-term intermission asking, “hey, when did Texas become dependent on windmills?”

Jul 28 2022

Fed Chair Announces Addition 0.75% Increase in Interest Rates and There will be More, After They Assess How Much Damage This Creates


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 27, 2022 | Sundance

While admitting that consumer spending had dropped; and while admitting that production of goods and services had “slowed significantly”; and while admitting that consumers have “lower real disposable incomes and tighter financial conditions; and while stating that “activity in the housing sector had weakened”, housing purchases have fallen; and while accepting that “business fixed investment seems to have declined in the second quarter,” Fed Chairman Powell announces his intention to continue targeting excessive demand.

If we accept that monetary policy can only impact the demand side of the economy (regulatory policy impacting the supply side); and if we accept all off the currently existing realities of a declining demand side, as outlined by Powell; then you might wonder what excessive demand is it that he’s targeting?   The answer to that question is the secret sauce.  They want less energy demand.   WATCH (2 mins):

The federal reserve, just like all the central banks around the collective western alliance, is trying to reduce the economy in order to reduce energy use.   This is the monetary policy side supporting the Build Back Better, Climate Change, regulatory policy side. {Go Deep}

They cannot admit openly what they are doing, but the bankers are trying to help the globalist politicians by shrinking their economy.  Raising interest rates into preexisting economic contraction is against their legislative mandate, because it only leads to unemployment and a smaller economy.

Powell is using the pretense of demand side inflation as a justification to raise interest rates.  It’s not demand driving inflation, it’s the energy policy.

Powell is managing the monetary side of the transition to a New Green Deal economy.

Powell is managing the economy into a recession to support the “energy transition”.

This is all being done on purpose.

[…] Mr. Powell said in his news conference following the Fed’s decision to raise rates by by 75 basis points that future rate decisions will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis now that the federal funds rate target range is between 2.25% and 2.5%, which he deemed roughly neutral in terms of its impact on economic activity.

Mr. Powell said the 75-basis-point moves in June and July were unusually large and something similar at the September FOMC “could be appropriate.” But he said that the Fed can no longer provide “clear guidance” and will let the data determine what happens next. He said he still believes monetary policy will need to move to a restrictive stance and will likely be between 3% and 3.5% by year end. (LINK)

Jul 28 2022

Here We go Folks, U.S. Trade Imbalance Shrinks as Imports Plummet


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 27, 2022 | Sundance

Imports are plummeting… should be a good thing… trade imbalance shrinks…. that lifts GDP calculations…. but the problem is…

…. Consumer Demand Has Collapsed.

The state of the U.S. economy is not as difficult as the ‘experts’ always claim.  Simple business and checkbook economics always, always, tell you the future. You just have to be willing to accept things as they are, not as you would wish them to be.  Let’s have an honest chat. We need it.

Remember, it was November 2021, and no one was paying attention but retail hiring was negative.  The month before the 2021 Christmas holiday, when historically businesses would be adding people to their payrolls to support the increase in shopping, and retail businesses did no hiring. In fact, 20,000 retail jobs were LOST the month before Christmas.  Retail sales had plummeted. That was a major flare, no one paid attention. Everyone was distracted with the Supply Chain crisis.

Then the fourth quarter 2021 GDP result came in at 6.9%, massively higher than the visible reality on Main Street.  The reasoning was identified as a major increase in the value of inventories. While the Biden administration liked the GDP figure, the existence of the unsold inventory was another major flare.  Add unsold inventory units to the massive inflationary value of those units (+8%) and you quickly see the +6.9% was bad news, not good news.  Major increases in the value of goods have no value unless people are purchasing them.  It wasn’t happening.  Again, no one (except us) was paying attention.

Then the first quarter of 2022 GDP result came back with a negative 1.6% result.  With high inflation those inventories were stagnant.  The eight-percentage point GDP swing from the fourth quarter of 2021 to the first quarter of 2022 was another warning flare.  Again, no one was truly paying attention.  Retail sales -as measured in units purchased- had been in a contracting position since June of 2021, when the stimulus ran out.  However, skyrocketing inflation was hiding lower unit sales.

With inventories stagnant, purchase orders to manufacturers stopped. Orders for non-durable consumer goods dropped.

Due to lengthy supply chains, including trans-pacific shipments, the process to stop deliveries in the electronic goods sector takes around 90-days before the drop in retail sales reaches the manufacturer to stop production.  Here is the announcement from Samsung: “Samsung Electronics is temporarily halting new procurement orders and asking multiple suppliers to delay or reduce shipments of components and parts for several weeks due to swelling inventories and global inflation concerns, sources have told Nikkei Asia.” 

Pay attention to the dates.  Prices were dropping because consumers were not spending:

If the USA economy was really in the shape that appeared statistically, you would see it on Main Street.  We did see it on Main Street.  Consumer purchases of non-essential goods had stalled and contracted.  Everyone was paying more for food, energy, housing and fuel.  There was/is no room in the household budget to spend on non-essential purchases.  People are hunkering down.  That was very visible.

When the U.S. consumer stops purchasing goods, the overseas suppliers of those goods need to stop manufacturing and sending them here.  As a result, if the economy was in really bad shape, we would expect that imports would drop dramatically.  This drop in imports would obviously impact the trade deficit.  Well….

WASHINGTON, July 27 (Reuters) – The U.S. trade deficit in goods narrowed sharply in June as exports surged, while business spending on equipment remained strong, reducing the risk that the economy contracted again in the second quarter.

The better-than-expected reports from the Commerce Department on Wednesday left economists scrambling to upgrade their gross domestic product estimates for the last quarter, which had ranged from negative to barely growing. The data were published ahead of the release on Thursday of the advance second-quarter GDP estimate.

[…] The goods trade deficit shrank 5.6% to $98.2 billion, the smallest since last November. Goods exports increased $4.4 billion to $181.5 billion. There were strong gains in exports of food and industrial goods. But fewer capital and consumer goods as well as motor vehicles and parts were exported.

Imports of goods fell $1.5 billion to $279.7 billion. They were pulled down by imports of motor vehicles and food.

[…]  The Commerce Department also reported on Wednesday that wholesale inventories increased 1.9% in June, while stocks at retailers rose 2.0%. Retail inventories were boosted by a 3.1% jump in motor vehicle stocks.  Excluding motor vehicles, retail inventories increased 1.6%. This component goes into the calculation of GDP.

And here comes the kicker….

[…] According to a Reuters survey of economists, GDP likely increased at a 0.5% annualized rate in the second quarter. The survey was conducted before Wednesday’s data. The economy contracted at a 1.6% pace in the first quarter.  Investors have been nervous about another negative quarterly GDP reading, which would mean a technical recession. (read more)

Does that 0.5% look familiar?  It should.

From CTH in June: “We can see no political scenario where the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will report a negative second quarter GDP number, despite the reality of a contracted economy.” … “CTH predicts the BEA is likely to generate a statistical report somewhere in the +0.5% range. Just enough positive GDP to avoid the literal definition of a recession.  The BEA report will be issued at the end of July and if they follow recent patterns, they will likely underestimate the inflation rate as well as under-calculate the import data.”

From CTH in July: “CTH has predicted the people within the BEA research group, ie those who make the determinations of GDP, will circle the statistical wagons and generate something akin to a positive 0.5% GDP figure for Q2.“

Three other factors also impact the import data. (1) Operation hide the ships continues (CA regulation issue). (2) There is an ongoing labor dispute with the west coast longshoreman union, and shippers trying to avoid issues are rerouting to Gulf of Mexico and East coast. And (3) There is an ongoing independent truckers strike and protest happening at California ports.   All of these provide convenient justifications for lower port data, which, conveniently for the Biden administration, inflates GDP.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis is likely to attribute a 0.5% calculation of GDP (release tomorrow) to the lowering of imports (a deduction to GDP) and then apply a liberal dose of inflation to the value of goods and services created by the economy.

A +0.5% BEA result avoids the pesky technical definition of a recession.

Jul 28 2022

IMF Data, Global Output Contracted in Second Quarter


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 27, 2022 | Sundance 

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) global economic activity, as measured by economic outputs, contracted in the second quarter.  However, when it comes to identifying the cause of the issue, the IMF joins western financial leaders and central banks in playing the game of pretending.

The radical new energy program contained within the Build Back Better agenda, is the root cause of the supply side inflation.  The drop in the production of oil, gas and coal in the same western nations that are following the BBB agenda is origin of the massive spike in energy prices.

Inflation is a major issue, geographically consistent and virtually identical in all the nations who are following the Build Back Better climate change agenda, which is the justification for the energy ‘transition.”  However, not a single leader, central bank or multinational financial institution -including the IMF- will admit the energy policy is the cause of the issue.

(IMF) – The world’s three largest economies are stalling, with important consequences for the global outlook. Inflation is a major concern.

The global economy, still reeling from the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, is facing an increasingly gloomy and uncertain outlook. Many of the downside risks flagged in our April World Economic Outlook have begun to materialize.

Higher-than-expected inflation, especially in the United States and major European economies, is triggering a tightening of global financial conditions. China’s slowdown has been worse than anticipated amid COVID-19 outbreaks and lockdowns, and there have been further negative spillovers from the war in Ukraine. As a result, global output contracted in the second quarter of this year.

[…] In the United States, reduced household purchasing power and tighter monetary policy will drive growth down to 2.3 percent this year and 1 percent next year. In China, further lockdowns, and the deepening real estate crisis pushed growth down to 3.3 percent this year—the slowest in more than four decades, excluding the pandemic. And in the euro area, growth is revised down to 2.6 percent this year and 1.2 percent in 2023, reflecting spillovers from the war in Ukraine and tighter monetary policy. (read more)

Notice the IMF does not generate a single word about the western industrialized nations using the climate change issue to justify their Build Back Better energy programs.

The global pretending continues.

It is very weird to keep seeing all of these global institutions ignoring the origin of the global economic issues.  The World Bank will not say it directly, the EU central bank will not say it directly, the U.S. Federal Reserve will not say it directly, the U.S Treasury Dept will not say it directly, nor will the Australians, U.K. or E.U. Central Commission.

Everyone knows what is happening; everyone knows the root causes; yet no one will say it directly.  Instead, they blame ancillary issues and Russia.  It’s all just weird.

Move along folks, pay no attention to over there…. move along, move along…. Look, shiny things….

Jul 27 2022

Chinese on US Real Estate Spending Spree


Armstrong Economics Blog/Real Estate Re-Posted Jul 27, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The Chinese are keen on investing in tangible assets, namely real estate. Canada implemented restrictions on foreign buyers after accusing them of the real estate shortage and sky-high prices. Chinese buyers are now targeting the American housing market. In fact, Chinese buyers outnumbered buyers from any other foreign country and spent over $6 billion on US real estate from April 2021 to March 2022. Canadians came in second for foreign home buyers, spending $5.5 billion in the same period.

The National Association of Realtors also noted that Chinese buyers tend to purchase more expensive properties, averaging over $1 million at a time when home prices were averaging under $400,000 (prices have risen since then). Around 31% of Chinese buyers selected properties in California and tend to choose wealthier areas for investments.

This is simply a means to park cash. Around 44% of foreign buyers purchased homes in all-cash deals. Non-resident foreign buyers were 60% likely to pay in cash compared to 30% of resident foreign buyers. Yes, this does mean that home prices will rise as foreign buyers can outbid most domestic buyers. This is good news for sellers who may have found themselves with no bid but disastrous for the average citizen who is struggling to find permanent shelter while paying for high rental properties that further remove them from the dream of homeownership.

One thing to consider is geopolitical relations. Look at how the US and others treated  Russian “oligarchs” this past year by seizing all their assets under the pretense of conspiracy. No actual crime needed to be committed for bank accounts and assets to be forfeited. Tensions are rising with China, namely over Taiwan, and it is not unreasonable to think that the US could pull the same move on another nation. The Chinese government is selling off US debt and slowly putting distance between itself and the current top economy. Private investors may follow suit if geopolitical tensions continue to rise.