In the Before Times….


Posted originally on the CTH on January 17, 2023 | sundance

Be rebellious and have fun doing it.

Live your best life.

Interview: Martin Armstrong on 32% Inflation


Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Jan 14, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Sketchy at Best Labor Report Shows 223,000 Jobs Gained in December, Year-Over-Year Wage Rate Growth 4.6%


Posted originally on the CTH on January 6, 2023 | Sundance 

The Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) released the December jobs report today [DATA HERE] showing 223,000 jobs gained in December ’22.

Most of the job growth was in the “leisure and hospitality” sector (+67,000), healthcare (+55,000), construction (+28,000) and social assistance (+20,000).  Additionally, average hourly earnings rose by 0.3%, with a year-over-year measure of wage growth at 4.6%.

At this point in the history of our economic pretending game, we are well aware the employment numbers are heavily manipulated in order to support the government policymaking that is destroying the same workforce they claim to represent.   It’s all a ruse, just look around your community and you will see what I am talking about.

The financial pundits, Wall Street, government policy makers and various individuals and economic gaslighters are concerned that worker wage growth could drive inflation.  This is one of the most aggravating aspects to reviewing the majority of economic punditry. [Example:]

This knuckleheaded narrative engineer from the New York Times/Atlantic even has the audacity to say, “let prices continue to fall to target,” as if there is a single item at any price that is dropping.  His spin is a good example of gaslighting just from the use of the statement “price inflation is falling back towards where we want it.

Price inflation is not price.  ‘Price inflation’ is the rate of increase.  There’s a BIG DIFFERENCE between “inflation falling back” and prices dropping. Inflation falling back is merely a lessening of the rate of price increase.  The price does not drop, and never will.

This reality is why it is infuriating to see government policymakers and pundits decry wage growth as a bad thing that might cause inflation.

Government monetary, fiscal and energy policy created inflation.  Devalued currency from spending, simultaneous to massive government policy changes driving up supply side energy costs, exploded inflation.

Prices for energy, oil, gas, home heating, fuel and food all skyrocketed as a result.  Workers need pay raises to afford these essential costs of life.  However, the same people who created the inflation are now worried that wage rate increases may drive inflation.  The mindset at work here is infuriating.

Consider these empirical data points.   In August of 2021 the Biden administration permanently increased food stamp benefits by 25% for everyone who needed the subsidy {LINK}.  This permanent benefit increase was delivered at the same time as the administration was claiming “inflation was transitory.”  They knew it wasn’t transitory. They were lying.

The Social Security Benefits were also raised in 2022 by 8.7% for the largest ever cost of living adjustment in 2023 {LINK}.  Both the 25% food stamp increase and the 8.7% SSI COLA were needed to offset the inflation created by government policy….  However, the same government doesn’t want wages to rise.  Can you see the hypocrisy.

Workers are being crushed by the outcomes of policy, and those who created the policy making the outcomes do not want worker wages to offset the policy.

We need to see wage growth in the 20% range just to keep pace with the increased cost of living created by policy.  Food costs 40% more, energy 30% more, housing 20% more and the list keeps going.

The prices for many goods have already doubled, worker wages need to compensate for those increases.   However, government, Wall Street, corporations and policy makers do not want to see wage growth that will offset the price of goods because they fear those wage gains will drive inflation.

The financial media, Wall Street, govt policy makers (republican & democrats) and corporations are lying to us and simultaneously killing the working-class. We, the workforce, are in an abusive relationship with govt…. and they have the nerve to blame us for inflation.

Our food costs +40%, energy +30%, housing +20%, all of it.. with interest rates now climbing, making it worse. Yet, they now clutch pearls and worry about our need for higher wages to afford these costs (from their policy) driving inflation higher?

Yet we are supposed to be concerned about giving an entitled republican control of the speaker position in congress because.. why?

Probably the same reason they want us looking at Ukraine, or transgender issues, or queer/gay rights, or climate change, or (fill_in_the_blank with something Ron DeSantis is promoting) all to keep us from realizing our economic life is being destroyed all around us while this constant and insufferable game of pretending continues.

A pox on all their houses! 

I hate them all right now.

18th Century Copper Riots & Private Money


Armstrong Economics Blog/Civil Unrest Re-Posted Jan 6, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

During the reign of King George III (1760–1820) the first issue of halfpennies actually was not issued until 10 years after his accession to the throne in 1770. Consequently, the vast number of halfpennies in circulation were actually all counterfeits. Indeed, counterfeiting became rampant at first because there was a coin shortage. In 1771, it was declared that counterfeiting copper coins were to be a serious crime. Nevertheless, this really made no difference. Over the course of the next twenty years, the majority of copper coins in circulation were forgeries. Even in the American Colonies, a favorite pastime was to counterfeit British halfpennies.

Coppers of this type are thought to have been minted from mid-1787 through 1788 and probably into 1789. Interestingly, it appears Thomas Machin first produced halfpence dated to the contemporary year as well as examples backdated to 1778. As the mints in Connecticut, New Jersey, and Vermont failed, their equipment ended up at Machin’s Mills. Along with imitation British halfpence, Machin’s Mills also produced illegal Connecticut coppers and some legal Vermont Coppers, with most of their Vermont coins being struck over counterfeit Irish halfpence. The illegal coining operation continued at Machin’s Mills until around early 1790, which was longer than any of the legal mints in New England.

John Adams wrote to John Jay on April 10. 1787

“There is a vast sum in Circulation here of base Copper: to the amount of Several hundreds of thousands of Pounds. very lately these half Pence are refused every where: I suppose in Consequence of some Concerted Scheme. and it is supposed that they will be all purchased for a trifle and Sent to the United States where they will pass for good metal, and consequently our Simple Country men be cheated of an immense sum.2 The Board of Treasury, may be ordered with out the avowed Interposition of Congress, to give the alarm to our Citizens. and the seperate States would do well to prohibit this false Money from being paid or received.3

There was religious tension in Britain that still lingers to this day against Catholics. The Gordon Riots of 1780 took place over several days instigated by the anti-Catholic sentiment that again erupted with the passage of the Papists Act of 1778. That was an attempt to reduce official discrimination against British Catholics with the first legislation of the Popery Act of 1698. At the time, Lord George Gordon was the head of the Protestant Association. He argued that the law would enable Catholics to join the British Army and once in they would then use the army to plot treason. The protest became the excuse to burn people’s possessions, engaged in widespread rioting and looting, and they even used the opportunity to attack both Newgate Prison and the Bank of England. This was by far the most destructive riot in the history of London.

alexis-i-copper-riot-1662

From the mid-1600s, the world money supply was increased largely with copper coins. Russia, in particular, began to overvalue the copper coins. Money is always fiat for its value is typically dictated by the government. Overvaluing copper as in the 17th and 18th centuries, led to the same trend of overvaluing silver during the 19th century. The result of this monetary manipulation by the Russian government led to what became known as the Copper Riots of 1662.

The Russian government began producing copper coins and monetizing them to be of equal value to silver Kopek currency with an average weight of about half of a gram to meet expenses during the mini-Ice Age. The effort failed and silver vanished from circulation as people began hoarding them causing the entire economy to collapse. The copper money was naturally devalued in purchasing power and then there were widespread counterfeiting operations since the official value of the copper coinage became far in excess of the cost of production. The economy collapsed into a deflationary black hole as businesses shut down and unemployment rose dramatically. This erupted into what has become known as the Copper Riots of 1662.

The German bankers, the Fuggers, emerged as the leading Augsburg merchant-banker, who then provided loans to local rulers secured with the silver produce of their mines. The discovery of vast silver mines eventually led to the development in 1525 of the one-ounce silver coin that was the thaler from which we derive the name “dollar” as the alternative to the British pound after the American Revolution. The Joachimsthaler of the Kingdom of Bohemia was therefore the first thaler ideally with a weight of 31 grams or one troy ounce.

copper-panic-1662

As the silver mines were declining, the decline in the supply of silver led to the rise of copper coinage during the next century. This was not an isolated incident confined to Russia. There was a shortage of precious metals going into 1662. It was most profound in Russia. Nevertheless, the price of gold rose sharply from the low of 1655 in a 7-year bull market. This also reflected the deflationary atmosphere that was emerging thanks also to the mini-Ice Age which was peaking during the 17th century yet would last well into the mid-19th century.

It was Spain’s silver mine known as the great red Cerro Rico or ‘Rich Hill’ that towered over the city of Potosí in Bolivia. It had been mined since 1545 by drafted armies of natives. The great silver boom of c1575-1635 was when Potosí alone produced nearly half the world’s silver. But the mine’s yield was starting to decline. By 1678, native workers became scarce and the output of the mines began to dwindle. This was the royal mint that produced vast amounts of ‘pieces of eight’, which became the precursor of the American dollar. The shortage of labor ended up being augmented by purchasing African slaves from the Dutch who were buying them under the pretense that they were the spoils of war, which had been the justification for slaves from ancient times.

As the quantity of new silver in the world monetary system was declining, we begin to see the rise of copper coinage make its first appearance under James I of England (1603-1625). Due to a shortage of small coins, James I authorized John Harrington to issue tin-coated bronze farthings in 1613, and three main types were minted – the last being a slightly larger copper farthing without the tin coating. The first halfpenny was introduced in 1672 by Charles II (1660-1685). Charles II issued some copper halfpennies and farthings in 1672 for a single year but issued farthings again in 1873. The next issue of a farthing was struck in a tin but during 1684 and 1685.

However, in 1694 the Bank of England was established to raise money for King William III’s war against France. The Bank started to issue notes in return for deposits. Therefore, the money supply for the first time began to include paper currency. By 1695 the first fraud took place. The authorities prosecuted Daniel Perrismore for forging sixty £100 notes. This incident caused the Bank of England to introduce a watermark in the paper to prevent such fraud. This was further enhanced by making counterfeiting subjected to the death penalty as a felony resulting in the confiscation of all your wealth and throwing your family out of the street as well. Pictured here, is a protest imitation note. The law was being prosecuted on the mere possession of a forged note. The complaint here was that these one-pound notes were easily forged and innocent people were duped, thereby committing a felony by mere possession. They were being hanged with no proof that they created the forgery – merely that they possessed one. This was creating an incentive not to even accept the notes in transactions.

George I, II, and III all issued copper halfpennies. George III’s halfpennies were dated 1770 to 1772. The economic hard times no doubt contributed to the riots of 1780. After those events, at Newgate Prison in March 1782 a female alleged counterfeiter of halfpennies was hanged. She was then fixed to a stake and burned before the debtor’s door at Newgate prison in London as a further example of not to counterfeit.

In a letter to Lord Hawkesbury on April 14th, 1789, Matthew Boulton, who is considered the Grandfather of modern coinage,  commented

“In the course of my journeys, I observe that I receive upon average two-thirds counterfeit halfpence for change at toll-gates, etc., and I believe the evil is daily increasing, as the spurious money is carried into circulation by the lowest class of manufacturers, who pay with it the principal part of the wages of the poor people they employ”.

Boulton’s contract in 1797 to produce the Cartwheel pennies and twopences, thwarting the counterfeiters, did not extend to producing the halfpenny, though Boulton had expected that it would, and had prepared patterns of the appropriate size and weight in accordance with his ideas on the intrinsic value of copper coins. The reason the government gave for the omission of the denomination from the contract was that a large number of de facto halfpennies (including tokens and fakes) would be driven out of circulation and Boulton would be unable to produce enough coins to meet the demand that would ensue.

To avoid being hung for counterfeiting and burned at the stake, there was a multitude of halfpenny tokens. Many were of a political nature as this one complaining about the cost of bread. The government yielded to the private halfpenny tokens which became the majority of the small change. The overall public demand for legal halfpennies soon forced the government to change its mind, and in 1798 a contract was issued to Boulton for him to produce halfpennies and farthings dated 1799.

Interestingly, it was also at this time when inflation sent the price of copper rising, and consequently, the weight of the coins was reduced slightly, which resulted in them not being as popular as expected. In 1806 a further 427.5 tons of copper was struck into halfpennies by Boulton, but the price of copper had risen again and the weight was even less than the 1799 issue. This time, however, there was no unfavorable reaction from the public, so perhaps the national obsession with “intrinsic value” had run its course.

This was a very curious period where private money dominated the money supply for halfpennies. There are other periods where this has emerged in history primarily due to the shortage of real official money. One of the earliest such periods was during the reign of the Roman Emperor Tiberius (14-37AD).

Tiberius was legendary to be a frugal emperor. His deliberate contraction in creating new money led to the Financial Panic of 33AD. As far as Quantitative Easing, that too was nothing new. Tiberius offered loans INTEREST-FREE, but they had a limitation of three years. This was to prevent people from being forced to sell their estates further depressing land values.

There was a major earthquake in Asia, modern Turkey, and this was so devastating, he issued coins stating they were for the relief of Asia. He also waived all taxes in the region for 5 years – something our modern-day politicians would never dream of.

The lesson from history reveals that at times there emerges the acceptance of private money. During the 1870s, we also see private tokens circulating as money in the United States. Collectors call them the Hard Times Tokens. The very same thing took place during the American Civil War.

During the Great Depression, the shortage of money led to more than 200 cities issuing their own paper currency. As long as everyone in town accepted it, these Depressions Scrips enable people to work and to be paid locally when there was simply not enough federal money to go around.

During the Hyperinflation in Germany of the 1920s, there again we see private currency being printed known as NOTGELD. Therefore, in the end, when the confidence in government declines, society is compelled to return to a barter-based society and that is when we begin to see private forms of money take hold.

Bidenomics – Amazon Announces 18,000 Layoffs, and They Are Not Alone – Imports and Exports Drop


Posted originally on the CTH on January 5, 2023 | Sundance 

That slow grinding creak you hear in the background; that’s the U.S. economic engine running without oil and beginning that slowdown phase just before it stutters and stalls completely.  Alas, the pretending continues…

As noted by the Wall Street Journal, an economic gaslighting institution with a central mission to maintain pretenses, “business surveys show U.S. factory activity declined in December, the Institute for Supply Management and S&P Global both said this week. Separately, S&P Global said Thursday that U.S. services-sector businesses reported a decline in output for the third month running in December.” This comes as “U.S. imports dropped more, by 6.4% on the month, as Americans cut back on holiday-related purchases, including items from other countries such as computers and autos.

Keep in mind, November retail sales—which included consumer spending at stores, online and at restaurants—fell 0.6% from the prior month for their biggest decline of 2022, according to the Commerce Department. Manufacturing output declined in November as well, the Fed reported, while U.S. home sales fell for a record 10th straight month.

Into this mix of economic metrics, driven by a collapse in disposable consumer income and high energy prices, now we begin to see the number one business expense being curtailed.

(Market Watch) […] Amazon.com Inc layoffs will affect more than 18,000 employees, the highest reduction tally revealed in the past year at a major technology company as the industry pares back amid economic uncertainty.

The Seattle-based company in November said that it was beginning layoffs among its corporate workforce, with cuts concentrated on its devices business, recruiting and retail operations. At the time, The Wall Street Journal reported the cuts would total about 10,000 people. Thousands of those cuts began last year. (more)

Amazon is not alone, “Vimeo said Wednesday that it will cut its workforce by 11% as part of a broader effort to reduce costs, citing deteriorating economic conditions” (link).  Additionally, Salesforce Inc. is laying off 10% of its workforce and reducing its office space in certain markets, extending a brutal period for tech job cuts into the new year.”

We can anticipate more reports like this from Reuters, “Samsung Electronics Co Ltd’s quarterly profit will likely plunge 58% to its lowest in six years as a global economic downturn saps demand for electronic devices and clouds the outlook for the memory chip industry.  With consumers and businesses reducing spending and investment in the face of high inflation and climbing interest rates, smartphone makers and other clients held back memory chip orders, while smartphones sold for less as demand suffered, analysts said.”

Electronics, cars, furniture, durable goods of all types and varieties are plummeting in sales.  Consumers are being squeezed by inflation, housing, energy and food costs, and spending priorities are being reevaluated yet again.  Compare the impact on ‘real wages’ -vs- the 2007/2008 economic crisis.

From a purely fraudulent accounting perspective, however, the drop in U.S. imports will help boost calculations of U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter because trade deficits subtract from overall output, or gross domestic product.

U.S. consumers not purchasing imported goods makes the health of the U.S. economy look less bad; but it’s an illusion akin to smiles in the bread lines.

In other economic news, I did some real estate analysis over the past several days and it’s safe to say there is a steep downward trajectory in the data I use.   Again, home values are nuanced on a regional level, but my model is pretty close in averaging.

If buyers do not absorb the seller’s loss in equity (which no one should ever do), in my SWFL area a $450k home listing is going to sell around $380k at the high side (actual value based on economic indicators and buyer ability).   That rough estimate, while slightly offset due to general inflation, should trend nationally over the next 12 to 18 months.   That means macro home prices dropping around 15 to 20% nationally over the next 12 months.

If you are a home buyer, put your offers around 15 to 20% below current asking price without any emotional attachment to it.  Don’t flinch, remain ambivalent and walk away if refused.   The recovery to current price will take around a decade.  If you are a seller and get an offer within -10% of asking, consider yourself lucky and jump on it.

Science is ONLY Possible with Constant Inquiry


Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles Re-Posted Jan 3, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Everybody seems to be up in arms over Musk turning Twitter into a real social media platform. When Klaus Schwab and his World Economic Forum ban Twitter, you know Musk is doing a great job. Bringing an end to all the propaganda from disease to Putin is such a breath of fresh air. Pray for Elon Musk. You can bet they are trying to come up with a disease or a fancy way they can claim he committed suicide.

When I was researching at the Firestone Library at Princeton University, I back friends with a professor there. One day he said to me that I reminded him of Einstein. Was shocked. I said that’s not possible. He said to me that Einstein always attributed his achievements to being curious. He said I had that same curiosity but in economics. I began to understand that ALL scientific inquiry DEMAND curiosity. If we are never curious, we will never discover anything no matter what the field.

No matter what field, you MUST always challenge the status quo. If we do not do that, besides the fact this becomes belief and not science, we will NEVER advance as a society. No matter what the field, without that freedom to inquire, society will collapse just as Communism did. If people are herded into pens like cattle and told they cannot challenge the accepted norm, they are killing humanity. This is why the government has been behind the curtain instructing social media to censor individuals and ideas all for them to desperately retain control. But they feel the world is slipping away. This is why they are fighting so hard to try to stop this trend for they know in the end – this is the decline and fall of western forms of republican governments.