Category Economic Subjects

May 15 2017

The Coming Central Bank Crisis


Armstrong Economics Blog/Banking Crisis

Re-Posted May 15, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

 

I have warned that whenever a government creates a solution to any crisis, that solution becomes the next crisis. This is what I have called the Paradox of Solution.The unfolding of the exit of the central banks from the Quantitative Easing monetary policy will become a much more serious threat to the financial markets than anyone suspects. The Federal Reserve has already exited and begun to raise rates while also announcing it will NOT be reinvesting the money when the government debt they bought expires. The Federal Reserve is already shortening their balance sheet. Bills of $426 billion will be due at the Fed in 2018, and again about $357 billion a year later. So the Fed will not repurchase that debt. The US economy is absorbing this because US dollars are effectively the only real reserve currency in the world right now.

The real problem lies with the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Japanese central bank and when they exit their Quantitative Easing programs, their economies are not the reserve currency and lack a solid bid from international capital. The end of QE will lead to a sharp increase in yields on the bond markets, and thus the financing costs for the states will explode far more rapidly today than at any time in past history. It is also possible that other sectors of the financial system, such as the stock markets and the foreign exchange markets in peripheral economies to the USA, will be cast into turmoil experiencing great difficulties without the financial support of the central banks.

Since 2008, the Bank of Japan recorded an increase of 107 trillion yen. The ECB has more than doubled its balance sheet from EUR 2 trillion to EUR 4.1 trillion and holds 40% of member state debt while tensions rise against the EU. The crisis emerges when governments, who are the ones who have been subsidized since 2008, find no bid for their paper. This will really send rates upward at a rapid pace.

As central banks appeared as omnipotent purchasers of government bonds to the un-savvy trader, the yields of the debt by no means reflect the risk of a default in the country’s payments. The decline in yields masked the rising risks from fiscal mismanagement that has been widespread.

While the Federal Reserve had recently announced that it would no longer reinvest its gains on government bonds that had matured into new US securities, the US bond market will need to find new buyers to absorb the additional supply. That may not be a problem right now, but as other government debt moves into crisis, we will see the capital flight from bonds to equities unfold.

The balance sheets of both the Japanese central bank and the ECB are unlikely to follow the Fed just yet. A withdrawal of the ECB’s purchases of securities could produced the most widespread damage in Europe since the Dark Ages.

May 14 2017

BitCoin & Alternative Currencies


Armstrong Economics Blog/Foreign Exchange

Re-Posted May 14, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: I very much look forward to reading your blog every day and feel that I am learning much. I don’t know much about BitCoin but I note that it has almost doubled since the beginning of the year. Does your model have any insight into the future of cryptocurrencies like BitCoin.

MR

ANSWER: The problem with BitCoin is precisely that. It is akin to the problem that existed when the bubble burst in 1966 with mutual funds because they were listed back then. People bid the funds up beyond net asset value so when the crash came, people lost everything when they though it was a secure investment. The net underlying assets may have dropped 20%, but they paid 20% over net asset value and then sold at 50% of net asset value. Ever since, mutual funds are no longer allowed to be listed. You go in and out at net asset value.

In this way, BitCoin is not ready for prime time. However, that is a separate and distinct problem from the technology. For now, BitCoin represents a threat to governments for it is used to get money out of places, avoid taxes, and is an alternative currency. Throughout history there have been alternative currencies and as long as people accept them, at times, they have become the major currency when government crash and burn. (see Two-Tier Monetary Systems & Local Alternative Currencies)

Longer-term, this technology may be the future after the crash and burn

May 14 2017

California is Highest Taxes State in USA and should join the EU


Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes

Re-Posted May 14, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Governor Jerry Brown never saw a problem that could not be solved by just raising more taxes. This time, the state pension fund is going broke as we have been warning with the building Pension Crisis thanks to mismanagement and low interest rates thanks to Larry Summers. California has already increased its gasoline tax by 50% in the past decade. Now to bailout the state employee Pension fund,  Gov. Brown has proposed a 42% increase in gasoline taxes and, get this, a 141% increase in vehicle registration fees. Nobody talks about cutting government employee pensions. NEVER! Why when you have a population to milk like the cow

May 13 2017

Draghi Says Anyone Leaving the EU Must Pay But EU Will Not Refund Surpluses


Armstrong Economics Blog/European Union

Re-Posted May 13, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

In the Netherlands, the Forum For Democracy leader Thierry Baudet confronted Mario Draghi of the ECB asking that since he had said anyone leaving must pay the ECB and exit fee of whatever they owe, he said that since the Netherlands had €100bn surplus at the ECB they should get it back is others who owe the ECB must pay.
Mario Draghi stated bluntly, NO! In other words,  the view at the ECB is what is yours is their’s and what is their is their’s.  We have put together a very important report on the Euro covering all the issues and why it is really doomed.

While some analysts claim the Euro is here to stay, it is obvious that such people have no real insight or sources behind the curtain. The consequences of the failure to euro are far greater than anyone suspects.

Nobody thought that BREXIT was the end of the Euro since the UK was not a member of the Eurozone. What is much more serious has been the rising anti-Euro base throughout Europe which is about now one-third. However, Le Pen defeated all mainstream parties so the election came down to Macron who began his own party last August and Le Pen. This was a major victory in itself for the anti-establishment forces. None of this touches upon the brewing banking crisis, the EU passage of Bail-Ins for banks, or the political crisis. The European Central Bank is the single central bank in crisis and at risk of actually failing. This may be the most shocking threat on the horizon for Europe. Merkel’s victory in the fall will be the final signal that then end is near over the next 3 years for it will guarantee no reforms. The EU has already rejected the platform of Macron that he used to get elected. When the French see that nothing will really change and his push for dictatorial powers, expect civil unrest to rise.

This report will be available after the Hong Kong Conference

May 13 2017

Interrogation By Bankers to Do Anything With Your Money


Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes

Re-Posted May 13, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: A bank manager at a local bank called and began asking questions about a wire transfer to Panama that we had some difficulty sending. We are purchasing a small house and land in Panama and this was the earnest money of $16,000. She was asking why I was buying the land, when I planned to move there, where I got the money, (I have several business accounts at this bank with large sums of cash in some of them). Do I have an obligation to give her the info? What are the repercussions if I refuse to answer her questions. The interrogation lasted for 25 minutes.

HW

ANSWER: The hunt for money is getting really bad. Everyone is now simply guilty and you must prove you have nothing to hide. It is getting really insane. We have 3 accounts at a major bank. I went to open another for a local company. I was told I had to mail a letter addressed to myself to our legal headquarters in Delaware to prove I received it and then mail it back to myself. When I pointed out that was just the incorporation address and this was a registered Florida company, it made no difference. When I pointed out we already had three accounts with them, they said that did not matter and they could not look at that and must treat every account as if they did not know who the person was. I just walked out and went to a different bank.

Everything these people are doing is just nuts. We cannot sell 1 year subscriptions anymore despite the fact we have done so for 40 years. Some person in the back office is making up rules they think are to prevent the bank from any liability and are filling files on everyone as a cover-your-ass requirement. The rules differ from bank to bank,

The repercussion are not legal. They will just close your current accounts.

Categories: The Hunt for Taxes
May 12 2017

IMF Proposed a Capital Levy – Tax on Money in Bank Accounts & Raise Property Taxes


Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes

Re-Posted May 12, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is always the cheerleader to raise taxes to support government. They are instructing Germany to raise taxes and also talking about just imposing a 10% tax on all money that deposits in banks throughout Europe. Yes – you read that one correctly.

The IMF has told Germany it should raise its property tax, cut social welfare contributions and invest more to reduce income inequality. The demands are contentious in an election year. Once again the IMF has demanded higher taxes on savings deposits in Germany. Germany must do more for to raise taxes to impose more socialistic idea to somehow tax the rich to create a broader participation of all citizens in the fruits of economic growth, if somehow raising taxes actually ever creates economic growth. The IMF warns that there is a relatively high tax burden on lower incomes with a comparatively low burden on assets.

The IMF argues for higher taxes on property  are in fact necessary and that the government should demand higher wages to also give impetus to the growth in Germany, yet this is magically creating no inflationary impact. Years ago, Italy simply imposed a tax on money in one’s account. This was called a “capital levy”. This was a one-time charge as an exceptional measure to restore the sustainability of the debt. The IMF is also suggesting that measure be invoked to help the coming Sovereign Debt Crisis. The attractiveness of such a measure is that such a one-time tax can be levied before a tax evasion can even occur, especially if cash is eliminated and money can only exist in bank accounts. This requires the belief that this measure is unique and never repeated.

The IMF has already calculated how much the measure would cost every Eurozone citizen:

“The amount of the tax would have to bring the European sovereign debt back to the pre-crisis level. In order to reduce the debt to the level of 2007 (for example in the euro area countries), a tax of about 10 percent is needed for households with a positive asset. “

As you can see, there is NEVER any discussion about reducing taxes or the size of government. The solution is always to raise taxes and to not even look at the old Italian trick of a 10% seizure of all cash in your account. We highly recommend to diversify to assets that are MOVABLE and not subject to taxation merely to possess.

May 11 2017

Macron to Hand All Sovereignty to Brussels


Armstrong Economics Blog/France

Re-Posted May 11, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Emmanuel Macron’s victory promises no change for Europe and it has been the blessing Brussels wanted so badly to further advance the federalization of Europe. Macron will surrender far more French sovereignty to Brussels than anyone suspects. Macron is a technocrat and the youngest President in France ever at 39. His message of surrendering the sovereignty of France was the subtle use at his rally in Paris of the European anthem, Beethoven’s “Ode to Joy,” rather than the Marseillaise. This was indeed a powerful gesture of a surrender to Brussels that will be full and complete. It also signal there will be no change in direction or reform.

The New York Times called the defeat of Marine Le Pen, was a battle against the evil forces of “xenophobic nationalism exploited by President Donald Trump.” They also reported that this is the end of populism as expected for they classified BREXIT as “Britain’s dismal decision last year to leave the European Union, and in the face of Trump’s woeful anti-European ignorance, was critical” to Macron’s victory. It is just stunning how the New York Times cheers on the EU and socialism yet never looks at the data to see if they are correct in pronouncing that the EU has created growth rather than destroyed it.

The New York Times and their biased position will NEVER bother to just look at the numbers. GDP growth in Britain peaked in 1973 and has declined ever since joining the EU. So what’s the problem? Are the people at the New York Times blind, stupid, the party idiot, or just too corrupt to be objective?

If Macron was in the USA, they would be calling for the prosecution of his wife as a child molester. They met when he was 15 years old and she was his high school teacher at 40 years old. When his parents found out he was romantically involved with his teacher when she was still married to the father of her three children. His were so stunned, they removed their teen son from the school and sent him to finish his education in Paris. Now he is the leader of France.

May 10 2017

If the Majority Must Always Be Wrong – Can that Ever Change?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles

Re-Posted May 10, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: I find it interesting that you say the majority must always be wrong. I read Kenneth Rogoff’s comment on Davos and how the predictions there are always wrong. Do you think this can ever change or is it just how it works?

ANSWER: Yes, I reported on that comment by Rogoff. The MAJORITY must always be wrong for they are the fuel that moves markets as well as politics. I have been stating persistently that the Dow cannot “C R A S H” when the majority are bearish and retail participation is at historic lows. The question you pose is a very interesting one indeed.

I would have  to say NO. I do not believe that can ever change. Human nature is such that it never changes throughout the centuries. The issues may change with technology, but human responses will always be the same. A mother still cries for her son lost in war today as she did in ancient times.

What I do believe is we each have our own cycle. We progress through this journey of life hopefully learning from our mistakes. We buy the high and sell the low when we begin following the crowd. As we learn and progress with age, we end up being the person who sells the high to the novice just entering the cycle.

The best we can do is learn and survive ourselves. I do not believe we can change human nature. That is the same reason why Communism failed. It is also why politicians become corrupt. It’s too tempting for them, which is why they cannot stand Trump. He cannot be bought. No amount of money will change his life style of that of his family. It’s now all about accomplishment and being remembered.

 

May 10 2017

Vancouver Real Estate Forecast – Regulation & Currency


Armstrong Economics Blog/Canada

Re-Posted May 10, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: I am new to your services. I purchased the Canadian report on the property markets. I am fascinated by your ability to forecast so many events. I understand it is the computer for sure and no individual has the time to forecast so many markets all the time. It appears your forecast on the real estate in Vancouver was right on target. Am I correct in assuming this was caused by the regulation changes and the trend in the US dollar?

Thank you

DK

ANSWER: Yes to regulation and the dollar. The Savings & Loan (S&L) Crisis in the 1980s was caused by a change in tax code whereby the US Congress wanted to tax the rich so they changed the tax credits in real estate. They took a bull market and turned it into a one-way sellers’ market with no bid. They had to order S&Ls to lend into the real estate market. So when the real estate market collapsed, they then blamed the S&L and went to even criminally prosecute directors. I provided the warning to members of Congress what would happen if they changed the tax code. Of course, they ignored the warning and the crisis unfolded as any person with common sense would have expected.

Charles Humphrey Keating, Jr. (1923–2014) operated the Lincoln Savings and Loan Association in Irvine California. When Lincoln Savings & Loan failed in 1989, it cost the federal government over $3 billion and about 23,000 customers were left with worthless bonds. The government, which caused the fail, then criminally charged Keating and of course they convicted him. The argument was he KNEW he would fail 7 years in advance so the bonds he sold he KNEW he would default on making it a crime. He served four and a half years in prison before those convictions were overturned in 1996. The theory of that case was absurd. I have never encountered the head of any company that was major where the director knew the company would fail 7 years in advance. The government made Keating the scapegoat for whole S&L Crisis Congress created.

Today, just add to this the Vancouver real estate market the trend in China trying to stop the outflow of cash that has been pouring out of the country. If you change the capital flows, you change the markets.

It’s not hard to put this together as long as you keep a global view and an understanding of history and how it unfolds for government is typically the source of all economic crisis. Politicians are absolutely clueless. The regulation changes in the property market in London set in motion the collapse in values there as well and in Australia they even outlawed foreigners from buying real estate.

May 9 2017

Bitcoin Soars Over $1700 – 2017’s Best-Performing Currency


Tyler Durden's picture
by Tyler Durden
Re-Posted from ZERO HEDGE May 9, 2017 8:14 AM

Bitcoin is now up for 16 of the last 18 days, soaring over 50% in the last month and up almost 90% in 2017 – making its the year’s best performing currency.

There appears to be no specitic catalyst for today’s move as the surge in Japanese interest (as we detailed here) and news that Russia is considering, like Japan just did, to allow cryptocurrencies as a legal payment method are outweighing fears over ‘hard forks’, SEC rejections, and Chinese crackdowns.

 

One wonders whether this ‘spurious’ correlation has anything to do with Bitcoin’s rise – as Venezuela’s black market Bolivar plunges into hyperinflationary collapse, non-fiat currencies are bid…

We summarized the ongoing bitcoin frenzy as follows last week: “just as the Chinese bubble frenzy in bitcoin is fading, it may be replaced with a new one, in which thousands of Mrs. Watanabe traders shift their attention away from the FX market and toward digital currencies” and added that “If the transition is seamless, there is no telling just how far this particular bubble can grow.”

Five days later and $250 dollar higher, we are observing first hand how accurate this prediction may have been, although like last week, we have no way of telling how long this particular mania phase will last