Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 18, 2022 | Sundance
During the White House press briefing today, the administration sent Jared Bernstein to the podium to discuss a recent drop in gasoline prices. Bernstein was claiming that Joe Biden had lowered gasoline prices when journalist James Rosen asked a question. {Direct Rumble Link}
James Rosen asked Bernstein why it was “Putin’s price hikes” when the gasoline prices are increasing, but not “Putin’s price plunge” when gasoline prices are decreasing. Bernstein attempted to clarify his position and ended up looking silly. WATCH:
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Meanwhile, the Dallas Federal Reserve held its energy survey, there was some important feedback noted from the Oil and Gas industry.
“The real energy crisis isn’t even here yet. The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts U.S. oil production to an average 12.5 million barrels per day for the next 30 years. This is all but impossible. Shale will likely tip into terminal decline in about five years as the main shale plays run out of location. Unfortunately, by then, most of the individuals with incumbent knowledge about offshore and international development will have retired. The brain drain in the industry will create a real and much larger crisis in the mid-to-late 2020’s.”
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 18, 2022 | Sundance
Jake Tapper called the latest CNN polling “shocking” as the results deepened his perpetually furrowed brow. Just about every metric surveyed in the poll of Joe Biden’s job performance is the lowest that CNN has ever polled. Unfortunately, despite the entire nation rejecting the Biden administration and having an adverse reaction to the outcomes of Biden policy, there is no indication anything is going to change.
As we have stated from the early moments after the election, Joe Biden is simply a disposable political puppet for the people who are really running the administration. Biden was selected and installed for his unique levels of selfishness, dementia and stupidity. He is the disposable front man for a single term of insane left wing policy execution centered around radical transformation of the U.S. economy via Green New Deal energy and social justice policies. CNN is simply measuring the American response. WATCH:
Posted originally on the conservative tree on July 18, 2022 | Sundance
As expected, the latest National Association of Home Builders survey [Data Here] shows the July confidence opinion of industry professionals now reflects the largest single month drop in the history of the survey (removing pandemic impact).
On a macro level, home values peaked in April/May and have been dropping ever since. Mortage rates have increased borrowing costs and inflation is squeezing home buyers out of their savings and/or down payment. Home sales have stalled in multiple regions and the prices of existing homes for sale are dropping, quickly. Many home building contracts are being cancelled and builders are now dropping prices in order to retain prior sales.
(Via Forbes) – […] Builder confidence in the market for new homes posted its seventh consecutive monthly decline in July, falling 12 points to 55 for its second-biggest single-month drop in history, according to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index released Monday.
[…] In emailed comments, Pantheon Macro chief economist Ian Shepherdson said confidence has “further to fall,” noting that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell last month alluded to the housing market’s “complicated situation,” saying potential home buyers “need a bit of a reset” as mortgage rates normalize at higher levels after remaining historically low during the pandemic.
“This is a meltdown,” says Shepherdson, noting home prices should soon start to drop and warning: “Pretty soon, anyone who has bought a home in recent months will be sitting on a loss.” (read more)
Yet another shake-up among Schwab’s leaders. Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas stepped down from her role on a technicality before being reappointed a day later. Kallas’ Reform Party reached an agreement with the Social Democrats and Isamaa Party to form a new three-party coalition.
Estonia shares a 180-mile border with Russia and has strongly supported Ukraine before the war began. Estonia is a small nation with a population of around 31 million and a GDP of $36.29 billion USD. Their inflation rate is among the highest in Europe after spiking to 22% in June.
Estonia has a large Russian population but has the comfort of being a NATO nation. The new government is aiming to eliminate their Russian ties by banning Russian from being spoken in school. Russians and Belarusians now have a more difficult time immigrating to Estonia or even traveling there without a visa.
Estonia is cracking down on potential spies or intelligence agencies at the border. The poster above has appeared around the border, with the government encouraging people to turn in anyone who they suspect is involved with Russian intelligence agencies. Kallas also has the epigenetic fear of her neighbor as her mother, grandmother, and great-grandmother were once deported to Siberia. The small nation will use its strategic position to help the West’s proxy war, and Kallas herself said that negotiating a peace deal with Putin is off the table.
Housing availability dropped by nearly 50% from December 2021 to March 2022. The situation worsened once borders reopened as visa holders and tourists re-entered the nation. The vacancy rate, according to the CBD, has declined to 1.5% after peaking at 5.7% during the pandemic.
Some estimate that the “economic time bomb” of under-investment in affordable housing will cost taxpayers A$25 billion per year by 2051. Housing All Australians founder Rob Pradolin believes this figure is closer to A$110 billion, and believes a $55 billion investment could deliver a 2:1 cost-benefit ratio. At least 2 million Australian low-income households will be under “housing stress” by 2051. That is an optimistic forecast.
Similar to America, the UK, and many other nations, shelter inflation has caused housing costs to become one of the biggest budget expenses.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison has been accused of being out of touch by suggesting Australians simply buy a house. That is simply not possible for many, especially after the government-imposed lockdowns and shuttered countless businesses during COVID. Morrison has suggested allowing people to access their super (similar to pensions) early in order to purchase a home. Superannuation Minister Jane Hume said that this would result in rising home prices. Labor leader Anthony Albanese also criticized the plan by calling it a desperate “attack on future savings” and future generations. “If you take super away from people, then you’ll have higher deficits and bills from the government in the future,” he told reporters.
Oddly enough, Mr. Morrison vacated his own home, branded “Squat Morrison,” after losing the election to Albanese and taking his time leaving the property.
Unfortunately, Albanese has a worse plan in mind. Low-income residents will have the opportunity to buy a home, with the help of Big Brother government. The government will pay between 30% to 40% of total housing costs for 10,000 buyers annually. Instead of paying back the banks, the people must pay the government back if they can afford to do so.
COMMENT: I thought you were just a Trumper warning what would happen if Biden won. I have come back to your site because I can see inflation approaching 10% as you said and the dollar is rising which made no sense as gold stalled. I think you also said that real estate will decline perhaps into 2023. Has there ever been such a wild combination of events?
Thanks
Pete
ANSWER: It gives me no pleasure to deliver such forecasts. They are NEVER my personal opinion. In all honesty, it truly takes a computer to sort out all the global trends. Personal opinions will not cut it when you enter a period that has not unfolded in a very long time.
I have told the story before that back in 1985 when we were going to open our first office in Europe, I went to lunch with one of the heads of a Swiss bank when I was there. I had a list of names we came up with like European Advisers or something like that because I knew there was a lot of anti-Americanism in Europe. He asked me to name one European analyst. I could not. I was embarrassed but he said there were none.
He then explained that everyone was using our firm on currency because “You do not give a shit if the dollar goes up or down.” He elaborated that in Europe if any analyst ever said their currency would decline it would have been seen as treason since the politicians had used currency to prove they did a good job rebuilding Europe after the war.
I learned many years ago, that the only way to operate was to call the shots as they unfold. My personal opinion means nothing. I cannot make a market rise when its trend is down. I am here to simply deliver what the computer projects. No matter how loud I could scream, it does not matter. What will be – will be.
Real Estate is undergoing three separate trends. First, there has been mass evacuation from cities and high-taxed states thanks also to draconian COVID laws. Secondly, we have the flight of capital to flee banks, etc which is part of just getting capital off the grid. Then thirdly, there has been a flight of international capital fleeing to the United States because of geopolitical instability in Europe.
The standard claim is that real estate will drop by 50% all because of interest rates pointing to some cities declining by 4% in June alone. This is merely confusing the people for they are looking at only the big cities that are already in decline for a separate reason from interest rates.
The claim that interest rate hikes imply that real estate will decline is very old school and once more it presumes everyone is buying on leverage. In 2021, cash sales represented 25% of existing home sales in the key markets that were a level unmatched since 2016. Nationally, buyers paid cash for almost 15% of the homes in 2021 in markets that were booming from migration from other states.
Florida, the Tampa market was even hotter. Single-family homes saw 45.5% more buyers paid cash than in 2020. The number of condo buyers paying cash went up 33.2%. While more people paid cash, the inventory dropped, with 29.2% fewer active listings of single-family homes in the 2021 third quarter than in 2020. Condo listings dropped even more, at 52.2% fewer available. Speaking to a local realtor, houses in excess of $1 million in the Tampa area were 95% cash deals.
This market has been LESS impacted by interest rate hikes than any previous booming market all because of the migration from interstate within the US and the flood of European buyers looking for assets outside of Europe as war keeps getting closer and closer. I have warned that real estate will decline in those states where people are fleeing. It has boomed in places they have been migrating to such as Texas and Florida. Obviously, you can no longer make a blanket forecast in real estate. Then there has been Blackrock which has bought over 20,000 homes in Florida in the lower-end of the market for cash.
I have warned many times that the standard nonsense that gold rises with inflation has been a sales pitch as trustworthy as a used car salesman. Gold rises during the collapse in the confidence of the government. Everyone will respond based on their own currency. As the dollar rises, gold has declined in US$, but the pattern will be different for every other currency.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 17, 2022 | Sundance
If I had to hazard a guess about what this was, I’d say it is most likely: (a) part of the massive Ukrainian stores of mortars and landmines in eastern Ukraine that were moved in order to keep the Russians from capturing them; or (b) the actual arms that were captured by Russian and then sold on the world arms market. Either way, somehow, they end up as part of an arms deal from Serbia to Bangladesh.
With the new and improved western weapons provided by the United States, Ukraine is likely upgrading and selling their old weapons to various nefarious arms dealers.
This shipment happened to crash, and that’s the only reason we are hearing about it.
(Via Daily Mail) – Soldiers in hazmat suits searched for signs of nuclear and chemical substances at the crash site of a Ukrainian cargo plane transporting nearly a dozen tons of mortar shells and land mines.
The Antonov An-12 light aircraft, which was transporting the weapons from Serbia to Bangladesh, had eight Ukrainian crew members onboard. They were all killed.
An official at Kyiv cargo operator Meridian told Reuters: ‘Of course they didn’t survive this.’ Eyewitnesses filmed the fireball crash in the early hours today, with explosions continuing for two hours and the charred wreckage burning until morning.
Drone images from the scene showed debris from the bulking aircraft strewn in fields. Serbia’s defense minister said the plane was carrying 11.5 tonnes of products made by its defense industry and the buyer was Bangladesh defense ministry. Greek authorities could not provide any more information on the aircraft’s cargo. (more)
Previously Russia was reporting to have captured a massive Ukranian military weapons cache near Kharkov (northeastern Ukraine). I wrote about it HERE. However, the video (partial screengrab below) was quickly removed by the internet police.
The doomed weapons shipment supposedly originated from Serbia, so the original source could be either Ukraine or Russia. Who knows? Amid all of the propaganda, Ukraine corruption and furious U.S. arms shipments into Ukraine, there are multiple sketchy participants likely involved in selling the arms on the global black market.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house July 17, 2022 | Sundance
The families of the Uvalde Robb Elementary school shooting victims met privately Sunday with a Texas House committee who released an interim report on the events that took place. [Link to 77-Page Report Here] Following that private meeting the committee held a press conference where they spoke about the report and took questions.
The committee, led by State Rep. Dustin Burrows, shared what they learned as they looked into the school shooting. “If there’s only one thing that I can tell you is there were multiple systemic failures. I would invite everyone to read the entire report,” Burrows said at the press conference. “You cannot cherry-pick one sentence and use it to say everything without reading and without context. But if we need a simple phrase to describe what the report says, again I would tell you multiple systemic failures.” WATCH:
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 17, 2022 | Sundance
Jason Furman is the former Chairman of the National Economic Council under Barack Obama; he is currently a professor at Harvard teaching economics. If you ever wondered why the economy under Obama included the weakest economic recovery in history, the advice of Furman might explain it.
In an interview with CBS this morning, Jason Furman says the best way to get inflation under control is to raise taxes and stop people from spending money. This approach will impact the demand side of the economy and as a result, with no one purchasing stuff, it will lower prices. Seriously, no joke, he said this. WATCH:
Jason Furm: …”Congress should be trying to do their part and helping out if they can cut the deficit, including raising taxes on high income households, that would reduce a bit of spending in the economy, it would cool the economy down a little bit, and actually take some pressure off the Fed.”…
Create a deeper recession to control inflation, brilliant!
Like I have been pointing out for months, these ideologues believe inflation is being driven by the demand side, by consumers purchasing too much. They pretend not to know it is the supply-side issue of energy policy that is driving the CORE inflation they seek to reduce.
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Harvard Economics Professor Jason Furman reminds me of this:
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 17, 2022 | Sundance
On May 31st, Representative Matt Gaetz (R-FL) made an explosive announcement as an outcome of a whistleblower providing information to him and Jim Jordan. The claim was the FBI held a collaborative relationship with the Clinton/DNC law firm Perkins Coie. {Go Deep} Specifically, the explosive element surrounded the FBI having a workspace within the DNC law firm that would give Democrats an open portal into FBI databases for political opposition research.
Additionally, formerly indicted Clinton campaign lawyer, Michael Sussmann, was reportedly in charge of this arrangement within Perkins Coie for the past year. Obviously, the potential ramifications from this joint collaboration are vast. However, have you noticed that not a single media outlet has followed up on the claim?
Generally, in Washington DC when the media ignores an issue, especially a major issue with large consequences; and doesn’t even attempt to snarkily debunk an explosive claim or belittle the person bringing the information; it’s usually because the claim itself has merit and the DC defenders do not want to give it any fuel for further discussion or awareness. {Direct Rumble Link}
So, what happened?
Essentially, what is being claimed is that a portal exists into FBI databases within the law firm that represents democrats. This means access to FBI database searches exists inside the office of the DNC and Clinton legal group. Think about the ramifications here.
If the whistleblower claim is accurate, the FBI can exploit the NSA database to conduct searches of all cell phone, computer, email, text message, social media, electronic communication and all private data/communication belonging to Americans; this would include geolocation. If the FBI was operating within Perkins Coie since 2012, then the democrats have held access to fully intrusive electronic surveillance of their political opposition, or anyone else – anywhere, for a decade.
The FBI and DNC law firm working collaboratively on issues of joint importance goes far beyond the ‘image of impropriety or conflicted interest‘ and extends to the actual corruption within the foundational institutions of government.
Transparently, if these reports are accurate all of the inexplicable dynamics within the “two tiers of justice” suddenly reconcile. The FBI and Perkins Coie having the ability to conduct electronic surveillance of any target is a major level of sunlight, that would reconcile years of visible issues.
Where is the follow-up?
CTH has long claimed there was some kind of direct portal link between the Clinton campaign team and the FBI databases. There were too many trails of extracted non-minimized research evidence in the hands of the Clinton team that CTH could not trace to a transferring FBI official. If Perkins Coie operated a portal in their office that allowed them to conduct search queries of American citizens, then everything would make sense. That access portal is exactly what is being claimed and admitted in this report.
The start date of 2012 is important for several reasons, not the least of which is FISA presiding Judge Rosemary Collyer criticizing the scale and scope of unlawful FBI database access going back to exactly 2012. Keep in mind a FISA-702 search, is simply an unlawful FBI warrantless electronic search of an American (“702” represents the American citizen) into the central database -maintained by the NSA- that contains all electronic data and communication.
I have been in the deep hole of the FISA-702 database search query violations for so long I don’t even need a flashlight.
The report from Matt Gaetz about Perkins Coie access to FBI databases, is in direct alignment with Rosemary Collyer’s prior report on FBI abuses of the database, 702 violations. Notice the dates and scope Judge Collyer references [Source Link].
Non-compliant queries since 2012.
85% of the FBI and contractor searches are unlawful.
Many of those searches involved the use of the “same identifiers over different data ranges.” Put in plain terms, the same people were continually being tracked, searched and surveilled by querying the FBI database over time.
The non-compliant searches go back to 2012. The same date mentioned for the FBI portal to begin operating inside the Perkins Coie office.
This specific footnote is a key. Note the phrase: “([redacted] access to FBI systems was the subject of an interagency memorandum of understanding entered into [redacted])”, this sentence has the potential to expose an internal decision; withheld from congress and the FISA court by the Obama administration; that outlines a process for access and distribution of surveillance data.
Note: “no notice of this practice was given to the FISC until 2016“, that is important.
♦Summary: The FISA court identified and quantified tens-of-thousands of search queries of the NSA/FBI database using the FISA-702(16)(17) system. The database was repeatedly used by persons with contractor access who unlawfully searched and extracted the raw results without redacting the information and shared it with an unknown number of entities.
The outlined process certainly points toward a political spying and surveillance operation. When the DOJ use of the IRS for political information on their opposition became problematic, the Obama administration needed another tool. It was in 2012 when they switched to using the FBI databases for targeted search queries.
This information from Jim Jordan and Matt Gaetz had the potential to be extremely explosive. However, the absence of any follow-up reporting, or even debunking from the traditional guardians of the DC swamp is weird. What’s going on?
I wrote about these suspicions in depth throughout 2017, 2018 and eventually summarized in 2019:
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