The Euro & Optimistic Fool


COMMENT: Marty; I see what you mean that it does not matter what the fundamentals are, markets move based upon what people belief be it right of wrong. To what the euro rally reminds me of the DOT.COM bubble. Blue skies forever.

REPLY: Yes. Human nature is such that we act always in anticipation of future events. This is why professional traders have always said – buy the rumor but sell the news. Markets simply MUST push to the extremes in both directions. That sucks the fools in to always buy the high and sell the low. That reminds me of the 1940 song Fools Rush In (Where Angels Fear to Tread) by Frank Sinatra.

Only the smart ones go on to try to analyze why they lost and learn from their mistakes. The majority, will not buy that instrument again and look for some other investment to reach the “blue skies forever” as you put it.

Angela Merkel Reflects Fear and Loathing Amid EU Elites…


German Chancellor Angela Merkel delivered some rather strongly worded remarks in advance of the upcoming G20 summit in Hamburg Germany.  Reuters frames the Merkel statements as a warning to U.S. President Donald Trump.

(Reuters) German Chancellor Angela Merkel promised to fight for free trade and press on with multilateral efforts to combat climate change at the G20 summit next week, challenging the “America First” policies of U.S. President Donald Trump.

In a defiant speech to parliament a week before she will host a summit of the world’s top economic powers in Hamburg, the northern port city where she was born, Merkel did not mention Trump by name but said global problems could not be solved with protectionism and isolation. (read more)

However, seeking control is a reaction to fear.  Ms. Merkel, the EU, and the larger multinational global interests therein, fear Trump… and for good reason, he’s winning.

President Trump has put a jaw-dropping U.S. energy platform solidly into place.  You can learn more about them HERE and HERE.  The announcements last week are tectonic in consequence though seemingly lost amid the chafe of media reporting over twitter spats.

Everything President Trump’s team does is connected to a bigger, much bigger, picture than most people are paying attention to.  However, those who control the levers of multinational power are paying very close attention.

At it’s core and central elements ‘America-First’ is about prosperity and national security through the utilization of leveraged economic power.   For four decades, as he built out his empire of holdings, every-single-day at every-single-opportunity, Donald Trump voiced vociferous frustration that politicians were allowing the U.S. to be controlled, lessened, weakened and robbed by multinational economic interests.

The historic fact of Trump’s decades-long position must be understood in order to understand the severity, consequence, deliberateness and thoughtfulness of his corrective plan of action.  You cannot overemphasize how strong these positions are.  Inasmuch as you inherently care for the guardianship of your child, likewise does Donald Trump view the United States with such a disposition of care, concern and stewardship.

In Trump’s mind, failure in his goal to reestablish American economic power, economic strength and economic dominance is no more an option than a mother failing to grasp the hand of her child walking amid edge of a sheer cliff.  It just is. It will be. There is no alternative. Period.

While the rest of the chattering class have overlooked it, President Trump, Rick Perry, Steven Mnuchin, Wilbur Ross, Robert Lighthizer, Ryan Zinke and Scott Pruitt have already moved America passed “energy independence”.

Stop.  Realize what that sentence says.

America has already passed the goal of “energy independence”.

We are now beyond the previously optimistic goal of energy independence.  It’s only been 5 months.

We ran past the goal of energy independence so fast, that no-body seemingly noticed it.  It’s like a race car lapping the traffic and now positioning for the lead of the pack again.  As the crowd watches the race and positioning, the jostling, they seemingly missed, or forgot, the fact the Trump car was so fast it’s already a full lap ahead of the current cars and now back in the pack attempting to lead by two laps.

Stunning.

President Trump’s economic team is now selling energy as an economic export product.

Now, just stop for a moment and contemplate this.

Our national GDP has always been based on the fact we create energy products (oil, gas, coal, renewable etc.), but we have also needed to import energy (traditionally oil).  The import aspect reduces the overall economic value of a fully functional GDP.  We shipped dollars overseas to pay for energy.  Those dollars come from your pocket (gas prices mostly).

The national security angle of this entire issue is transparent, ie. war for oil etc., and we have always been hostage to OPEC pricing, regardless of which political ideology was in power and the relationship therein.  In short we’ve always been a customer.  No-more.

Dakota Access is approved.  Keystone is approved.  Multiple new coastal oil refineries are coming on line (Louisiana, Texas), and we are exporting fuel and LNG (Liquified Natural Gas).   Light-Sweet Crude is stable at low market value, and U.S. gas prices are at their lowest point in decades with even lower prices yet to come.  Oh, and the coal business, driven mostly by export, is up over 7% in less than 3 months.

Hello.

You’ve heard me talk about the economics of energy, probably more than you want.  But think about this…. really think about this.  It’s all connected.

Need to pay down the deficit to invest in infrastructure?  Kinda easy to put a .25 cent gas tax into place when you drop the price of gas by $1.00+,  AND control the future pricing of gas because you control the market, because you are energy independent.  See how this works?

Everything is about the economics, and every outcome can be distilled down to a review of the underlying economics.

Arab Summit? Well, we are no longer beholden to OPEC.  So, when the GCC need to ensure the big cats are kept in their big terror cat cages, what do they need?  [Remember, oil reliance, is no longer part of the exchange conversation with the U.S.]   GCC needs friends, allies, and independent weapons now.   Independent weapons, because the vested U.S. economic interest to be the force in command those weapons is now gone.

Mexico’s entire energy sector is roughly $28 billion.  Mexico’s reliance on monetary wire transfers of U.S. dollars by individuals (non business) is roughly $29 billion.  Wilbur Ross, Robert Lightizer confront the former, while Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin controls guardianship of regulations on the latter.

NAFTA? Leverage? See how that works?

Inside the reversal of Obama’s Cuban policies, is the U.S. Treasury Secretary’s control over Cuban Remittances.  Economic leverage.  Sure U.S. Companies can do business there, but they still have to adhere to financial rules on foreign investment.  And CFIUS (Council on Foreign Investment in U.S.) works the economic/NatSec equation in both directions.

In reality Steven Mnuchin has more control over National Security than Secretary of Defense General Mattis or Secretary of State Rex Tillerson….

But no-one ever fully understood the national security trade leverage, apart from economic sanctions aspect, other than businessman Donald Trump, then candidate Donald Trump, and now President Donald Trump and his views/policies on all things economic.

Under President Trump energy as an export commodity is an entire new aspect to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP ), the economics of the U.S., that never existed before.  And Team Trump are right now positioning their energy trade race to lap all competitors.

Remember, we’ve already passed “independence”, we lapped it.  Now we’re competing for the lead inside a race where we are already a lap ahead of our competition…

That’s one of the reasons why Germany’s Angela Merkel is lashing out.

Remember #1:

REUTERS – Germany’s powerful car industry said Europe would need to reassess its environmental standards to remain competitive after the United States said it would withdraw from the Paris climate pact.”

Remember #2:

REUTERS – Investors with more than $15 trillion of assets under management urged governments led by the United States to implement the Paris climate accord to fight climate change despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to pull out.

“As long-term institutional investors, we believe that the mitigation of climate change is essential for the safeguarding of our investments,” according to the letter signed by 214 institutional investors and published on Monday.

“We urge all nations to stand by their commitments to the Agreement,” it said. Signatories of the letter included the California Public Employees Retirement System and other pension funds from Sweden to Australia.  (read more)

President Trump was very smart about the long-term ramifications to the ‘Paris treaty’.  The heavily influenced industrialized nations committed themselves to this agreement and anchored their economic manufacturing base within a tiered system of ridiculously burdensome regulations and agreements.

India, China and S.E.A.N.  (Southeast Asian Nations) were essentially exempt from the worst economic energy restrictions within the treaty.

The strategic benefit to the United States stems from not participating in the regulatory stranglehold that accompanies the agreement. Obviously all nations that compete with the U.S on international trade agreements would, for once, be at a disadvantage; and we have just made energy an export commodity within the trade equation.

This is in addition to American manufacturing and our industrial base now being able to take strategic advantage.  In larger terms Trump’s refocused policy objectives remove the political benefit from Wall Street and places it back with Main Street, reversing a three decade long shift. This approach is adverse to the interests of the globalists.

President Trump’s economic team are well aware of the strategic advantage is walking away from the Paris Climate Treaty. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and their entire economic team know what is needed to reverse the decades long construct and defeat the interests of the global elites.

The primary concern for every multinational corporation and multinational band surrounds economics, not climate.  “Climate” issues were/are the Trojan horse, the false ruse, the talking point, the scheme to get economic systems in place -yes, political systems- to control the distributive flow of larger economic wealth within all nations.  Period.

What ObamaCare was to our loss of healthcare individualism, so too was the Paris Treaty a political tool to deconstruct America’s national economic individualism.  FULL-STOP.

To understand the larger objectives of the global and financial elite it is important to understand the three-decade global financial construct they seek to protect. Global financial exploitation of national markets:

♦Multinational corporations purchase controlling interests in various national elements of developed industrial western nations.
♦The Multinational Corporations making the purchases are underwritten by massive global financial institutions, multinational banks.
♦The Multinational Banks and the Multinational Corporations then utilize lobbying interests to manipulate the internal political policy of the targeted nation state(s).
♦With control over the targeted national industry or interest, the multinationals then leverage export of the national asset (exfiltration) through trade agreements structured to the benefit of lesser developed nation states – where they have previously established a proactive financial footprint.

The ‘America First’ Trump-Trade Doctrine upsets the entire construct of this multinational export/control dynamic.  Team Trump focuses exclusively on bilateral trade deals with specific policy only looking out for the national interests of the United States.

Under President Trump’s Trade positions exfiltration of U.S. national wealth is essentially stopped.  This puts the multinational corporations, globalists who previously took a stake-hold in the U.S. economy with intention to export the wealth, in a position of holding interest of an asset they can no longer exploit.

If you can see the ramifications, and can grasp the inherent anger, you can begin to understand the severity of the opposition to President Trump.

Multinational corporations and billionaire financiers used climate change, the energy sector control mechanism, as a tool toward furtherance of global wealth collection and redistribution that they control.

It’s not a conspiracy, it’s just the way global financial markets, driven by global financial interests, work.   The top-tier strategy is quite simple, and has been played out for several cycles at various points in the modern economic life-cycle.  Create an institutional trade instrument (housing/bond financial bubble example), control it, drive the pricing to an apex and reap the financial rewards.

Their expressed holy grail for human control is a global tax on all people more commonly known as a “carbon-trading tax”.  A planetary tax on personage, behavior and activity, through a market-based trade vehicle (Paris Agreement), which they exclusively control; and which subverts the national economic interests of sovereign nations.

The “Carbon Trading” fundamental financial instrument is the foundational block of the financial interests behind modern climate change.  The latest exhibition of a decades long series of international construct was the Paris Climate Change agreement.

President Donald Trump is deconstructing this entire decades-long institutional system of control. There are trillions at stake and the efforts of entire generations of billionaire left-wing elites on the line.

This is why those same global elites worked diligently to install French President Emmanuel Macron; and this is why Macron’s boss, Germany’s Angela Merkel, is so angry.

France’s President Says He is TOO SMART to Communicate with the Fools Who Voted For Him


The French President Emmanuel Macron will break with the long-standing tradition of the President making a speech on Bastille Day to celebrate winning independence. He says his “complex thoughts” may prove too much for journalists. The truth is, his agenda is to surrender the independence of France and hand it to Brussels. He has no interest in celebrating Independence Day when he intends to end that Independence. Just astonishing. We now have a president in France who is too intelligent to communicate with the scum beneath time for they are just stupid fools. Perhaps so – since they elected him.

Are Bail-Ins Supported by Free Market Philosophy?


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Reading between the lines, it seems that you support bank bailouts at taxpayer expense. Is this not counter to free market philosophy?

KE

ANSWER: Yes it is contrary to free market philosophy. However, it is the only reasonable solution at this moment in time without structural reforms to the financial system. If we accept the bail-in that Europe just did in Spain selling the bank for one euro, the reality of that decision compels me to advise clients NOT TO OWN any bank shares. Seizing a bank and auctioning it off for one euro when its value, if liquidated, would have been significantly higher is in itself anti-free market.

The bailout conducted by the Fed was absurd. The theory that they just lend money to banks when in trouble is seriously flawed under the current system. Bill Clinton repealed Glass-Steagall and in doing so he seriously altered the banking system completely. The 1007 crash took place because banks no longer engage in relationship banking but have flipped everything to transactional banking. They make the loan, package it into a security, and then sell it off. The banks say this makes them stronger. Fine, I accept that principle. But then handing bankers trillions to “stimulate” the economy failed because they did not lend the money out and parked it at the Fed in excess reserves. They stopped securitizing debt and would not lend because of risk.

The problem is how our government operates. If they are trying to “stimulate” the economy then they need to cut taxes. You must put money directly into the hands of the people – not the banks who do not lend to the average person. This is why quantitative easing has failed. Mario Draghi needs to get out and really see how the economy functions live.

Under the current terms of the bail-in, I must advise clients to sell bank shares and stay with industrial shares. You can flip the coin. Both sides are anti-free market.

Tell as Lie Often Enough it Becomes the Truth – How Lies Now Defeat Gold & Dollar


A flood of comments from central banks this week has been signalling that the era of easy money is coming to an end. Of course, the nonsense spouted out by the Gold Promoters that hyperinflation was coming has left 10 years of continually wrong forecasts yet the pretend analysts have done far more damage to the marketplace that is only now revealing itself. Note carefully, that gold has declined WITH the dollar. Something else the promoters said would never happen.

Gold had soared to reach record highs at $1,920.30 an ounce back in 2011 on the propaganda of hyperinflation coming because of Quantitative Easing (QE). Now with QE coming to an end, why buy gold? We see the same nonsense setting the euro up ripe for the slaughter. The prospect of QE ending at the European Central Bank (ECB) has been sending the euro up, yet once again to the delusion that all will be reversed and higher interest rates will save the Euro.

The German 10-year government bond yields hit five-week highs and the Euro a 14-month peak as investors geared up for the prospect of the ECB scaling back its massive monetary stimulus program. Comments from ECB’s chief Mario Draghi on Tuesday were seen as opening the door to monetary policy tweaks, while Bank of England Governor Mark Carney also raised the prospect of a UK interest rate hike in the coming months this week. This has all sent the dollar down as the fools rush in where no wise-man would dare go.

Now higher interest rates have miraculously flipped into bullish news. The problem is, the economy has not changed. Higher rates will not reverse the deflation in Europe. The idea is that higher rates will bring capital back to Europe. Nobody is addressing what comes next

European Refugee Crisis Was Created in an Undemocratic Manner


The very issue of the European Refugee Crisis highlights the entire problem with the European Union. There is no democratic union whatsoever. The issue of accepting refugees was a unilateral decision by Merkel alone. It was never put to vote in Europe. Once the migration turned to a full blown crisis, Merkel then insisted that all member state had to accept their share.

The statistics show that 70% of the migrants are young men. Not families or women and children. This is resembling an invading army. Brussels is using the Refugee Crisis to push the federalization of Europe and suppress all member states to second class sovereigns subject to authoritarian power, denying the people any right to vote on any issue in Brussels.

This is now about seizing power in Brussels by virtual dictatorial means. The arrogance of those demanding the surrender of sovereignty over the Refugee Crisis is unbelievable. There is absolutely no consideration whatsoever for the consequences to European culture if they are wrong.

India Taxing Gold (Hunt for Taxes)


India has been fighting the gold trade for the past few years. They have sought to highly restrict it to prevent the net capital outflow. They even attempted to impose a 18% tax. As of July 1st, 2017, India is imposing a tax on gold bullion be it in coin or bar form of 3%. Gold jewelry in India is subject to a 5% tax. Many families have been rushing to buy gold jewelry in particular before the tax comes at the end of the week, Gold has played a traditional role in Hindu weddings. The “wedding season” actually begins only in the winter, but the advent of the tax is causing a mad rush. We saw the same human response in Japan the monthly prior to the imposition of the sales tax.

Narendra Modi has not merely tried to outlaw cash as much as possible last November, he is also responsible for the introduction of new taxes on the trading of physical gold. Modi has been very repressive in his policy objectives. Over the past few months, several complaints have been filed that financial officials of the government confiscates gold stocks of citizens without giving reasons .

Modi is trying to force India into the 21st century to comply with G20 objectives of eliminating all cash to enable a more efficient tax collection effor

South Australia in Financial Trouble


COMMENT: Marty; Thank you for doing your conference in Hong Kong. It made it really convenient for all us from Downunder. You are probably aware that South Australia is broke and they just imposed a huge tax on the banks. They are calling it the surprise taxof $280 million on the top 5 banks. Many who just hate the banks are cheering. You said at the cocktail party that South Australia was in deep trouble. While most cheer because they hate the bankers, they are missing the real krass here. The government is broke.

Thanks for a great conference, BTW, I attended your Adelaide conference in the nineties.

PK

REPLY: Yes, it is the “krass” point that South Australia is broke. They cheer taxing the bankers, but they are indeed overlooking the cause why they imposed the “surprise tax” in the first place. South Australia is struggling with the country’s highest unemployment rate, which has reduced tax revenues when they expected more.

I haven’t been to Adelaide since then. That was a good conference. I took some time to go into the bush. It was beautiful. Bought a painting of the landscape there I still have.

Hope you met Phil. He attended the Perth Conference around the same time I did that Australian tour

May Forms Government To Retain Power in Britain


Britain’s Prime Minister Theresa May has at last secured a governing majority in the UK Parliament by agreeing to spend £1 billion on top of £500 million previously promised to Northern Ireland. Of course the stability of the May government going forward will be delicate as Jeremy Corbyn does his best to bring down the May government and seize control for Labour.

The deal with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) will provide its 10 members to back May’s minority government over the Queen’s Speech. This will relate to the national security of Britain and maintain Brexit. Theresa May made the public statement:

“I welcome this agreement which will enable us to work together in the interest of the whole United Kingdom, give us the certainty we require as we embark on our departure from the European Union, and help us build a stronger and fairer society at home.”

EU Extends Sanctions Against Russia Killing Their Own Economy


The EU has extended its economic sanctions against Russia for another six months, which really makes no sense. No sanction will cause Putin to abandon a strategic port in Crimea that was originally Russian territory before it gave it to Ukraine to be administered. President Donald Tusk announced it on Twitter interestingly revealing that Chancellor Angela Merkel calls the shots for all of Europe. True, France’s President Emmanuel Macron also was consulted and agreed, naturally he will do as he is told, and then the rest of the Heads of State and Government at the EU summit in Brussels were informed of the decision.

The punitive measures imposed by the sanctions since 2014 in the wake of the Ukraine crisis have produced nothing but a new cold war. The sanctions are now extended until January 2018. Russia naturally imposed counter-sanctions against the EU which hit the European industrial companies as well as the agriculture.

Demonstrating how successful sanctions have been, Russia shocked the world with a surprise where they have entered the airline industry. They had a successful test flight of a new medium range passenger plane owned by the state controlled United Aircraft Corporation. This new plane, the MC-21-300, flew at a speed of 300 kilometers per hour on its maiden flight.

 

The MC-21-300 has a capacity between 163 and 211 passengers and a maximum flight range of 6,000 kilometers. So the sanctions only produced competition for the Boeing 737 and the Airbus A320.