Posted originally on Apr 28, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Marty, Socrates seems to be pointing to a C$ bounce. Does this imply that Carney will lose, or does it mean the bounce will be brief on his nonsense and then turn south?
RE
ANSWER: The only hope that Carney has is a coalition. Comparing the Conservatives to the Liberals in Canada provides an interesting picture. Trudeau was able to be the leader of Canada with 32% of the vote. The computer clearly shows that Carney will beat Justin Trudeau, who was first elected as Prime Minister of Canada on October 19, 2015, and served until his recent resignation in January 2025. He led the Liberal Party to victory in three federal elections during his tenure. In 2015, he had 39.47% of the vote. Then in 2019, he won with 33.1%. Then in 2021, he won with 32.6% while the Conservatives beat him with 33.7%. This is the problem with a Parliamentary system – it allows fragmentation and coalitions.
Trump threw his 2 cents into the ring on Truth Social. That could help Carney. Canada would never become the 51st state. Each province would become a separate state, and that would mean each gets two senators, and they could join the Democrats and kill the US economy with their EQUALITY that has killed Canadian productivity. Canada’s once-thriving economy is now facing severe challenges, from a housing bubble that has pushed debt beyond GDP to a massive brain drain of skilled workers. With real estate prices climbing over 300% in two decades while wages lag far behind, homeownership is slipping further out of reach for most Canadians. At the same time, Canada’s productivity is declining, with the average worker producing 30% less than their U.S. counterpart. With rising discontent, increasing financial strain, and a lack of strong leadership. This has led to the question of how much longer Canada can hold on before a major economic crisis?
In the last election, the Conservatives beat Trudeau with 33.7% vs 32.6%. To get a majority, they need 172 seats. The Liberals will most likely carry the East – Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick, Quebec, and Ontario. This election could ignite the separation fires burning beneath the surface in the West. Our model warns that it was the completion of a 72-year cycle in the 2021 election for the Liberals, and that should be the low point. They have a fighting chance this time and will beat Trudeau’s numbers.
We still have the risk of war in May. Germany has just instructed Zelensky not to agree to any peace deal with Trump. The key level will become 7225 in the future, going into May.
Posted originally on Apr 28, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
The Failure of the London peace talks last Week was a critical defining moment. The “peace talks,” which were meant to take place in London on Wednesday, April 23, 2025, collapsed as US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Steve Wytkoff cancelled their attendance. Instead, Wytkoff headed for Moscow for his fourth meeting with Vladimir Putin. This was indeed what some will refer to as a watershed moment for European powers, demonstrating that they are not about to lure Trump into supporting their war of conquest and vengeance against Russia for the days of the Bolsheviks.
Zelensky now knows that he cannot play Trump as a fool. Now he has cleverly tried to con Trump into still creating World War III by changing the label again. He met with Trump at the Vatican for the Pope’s funeral. Zelensky’s new scheme is to get NATO protection without being a member of NATO. His proposal is now that he could not join NATO, which will provide the security guarantees with pretend peace-keepers against future Russian aggression, when this entire war began with Ukrainian aggression against the Russians in the Donbas.
The solution has always been to honor the Minsk Agreement, which Merkel and France intentionally lied about when they negotiated, playing Putin for a fool while Ukraine built an army. Honor that peace agreement, and 1.1 million Ukrainians would still be alive today, and 8 million would not have had to flee their country.
Putin even tried to explain the importance of the Minsk Agreement to avoid conflict. Zelensky understood that he was throwing his country into the meat-grinder all on the orders of the Neocons and NATO, who he now says they acknowledge he cannot join NATO, so they will provide the same protection just as a security guarantee without membership.
Allow the Donbas to vote and separate, as took place in former Yugoslavia, also resulting in countless deaths in the Kosovo War. It was the West that lied and wanted this war, pretending that they were defending Ukraine’s territory, which they could have also said about the breakup of Yugoslavia. Why not oppress all those ethnic groups to stay together?
It was former German Chancellor Otto von Bismarck (1815-1898) who in 1888 foretold of a coming great world war that would “come out of some damned foolish thing in the Bakans.” The ethnic hatreds in this entire region are insoluble.
Ukraine MUST be divided like Yugoslavia, or there will NEVER be peace. Zelenksy is playing Trump as the fool all over again. He does not propose NATO’s Article 5 protection, but he did express optimism that there could be guarantees that were like the protection it offers. Trump between not just count his fingers shaking hands with this piece of shit determined to create World War III and the NATO protection as Article-5-like guarantees would still bring all of NATO into Ukraine if it is still not a member. You cannot trust Zelensky or any of the EU leaders, including Starmer.
Trump – you cannot be this stupid!!
The EU was hoping to get Trump to fund the insane war against Russia, as they are building their military in preparation for what will become World War III, the same strategy they pulled with the Minsk Agreement to buy time for Ukraine to create an army. This time, it is an EU army. The phrase “Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me” is attributed to Anthony Weldon, who wrote about it in his 1651 book, “The Court and Character of King James.” The saying emphasizes the importance of learning from past mistakes to avoid being deceived again. They are playing both Trump and Putin for fools once again.
Starmer, Macron, and Zelensky were hoping to fool Trump into providing an open-ended security guarantee for a Zelensky regime while Europe bought time to create its EU Army. They honestly think they are clever and more intelligent than everyone else. Moreover, they were seeking to defraud the United States with Ukraine’s rare earths pretense promising to sign some deal with Trump when last January 16th, 2025 Keir Starmer flew into Kiev and signed a 100-year partnership with Kiev worth £3 billion a year indefinitely while Zelensky signed over the bulk of Ukraine’s resources and infrastructure capital to British interests – not American. The deal was part of this idea of resurrecting Europe to rise against as the leader of the world, as if they were Charlemagne trying to revive the old Roman Empire.
The deal was supposed to boost London’s financial markets. However, as always, they expect the USA to fund the expenses while they reap the profits. Even Boris Johnson explained, without the US security guarantee, “not a penny can flow from this investment.” Indeed, Starmer also confirmed that the “US backstop is vital” for London to reap the profits, which would include rare earths that they would then mark up and sell to the USA. As Marco Rubio explained, “President Trump isn’t going to take that. He’s not going to get gamed. He hopes Zelensky isn’t trying to hustle the United States; that’s not going to be productive here.” This is an outright fraud against the United States.
Of course, Zelensky is a Neonazi and he gets his instructions from the Neocons and London. He pretended to be Christian and joked about confiscating the assets of Russians and Jews. He announced he was suddenly Jewish ONLY after he became president.
This is what the Ukrainians were doing to Jews. They killed the woman and threw her child into a grave alive, so they did not waste bullets on Jewish Children. This is what Zelensky would joke about on stage before becoming president.
These horrible world leaders, willing to sacrifice their own people for personal hatreds, should be in prison. They think that they are smarter than Trump. Sorry to say – he is not Biden! Playing Trump for the fool, both Britain and France had to back off from sending in their peace-keeping troops to Ukraine, which would have protected this deal of strip-mining Ukraine. So now they have revised their scheme to get Trump to agree to NATO protection in an Article-5-like proposal, which they will still use to blame Putin as the aggressor, so they can strip-mine Russia, or so they believe.
They have also played Putin for the fool, assuming he, too, is stupid and would agree to their terms. At the same time, they build a European army to achieve their ultimate goal of conquering Russia and gaining the $75 trillion in assets that Russia has in natural resources. Getting their hands on that, they believe, will elevate Europe to rule the world since that is twice the value of the US national debt.
Upon the death of Pepin, Charlemagne (768-814 AD) became king of the Franks in 768 AD, initially as co-ruler with his brother Carloman I. However, Carloman suddenly died unexpectedly and unexplained in December 771, conveniently leaving Charlemagne as the sole ruler of the Frankish Kingdom. He then began to expand his empire, conquering tribes. He became the King of the Lombards in 774 AD, and then Emperor of the Romans from 800 AD. It was about three intervals of the 309.6-year cycle until another Frenchman sought to conquer Europe – Napoleon. Here we are, 224 years later, with eyes once again on conquering Russia.
Putin is also not dumb. I would NEVER agree to such a proposal involving the EU, which has never told the truth, has its eyes on the conquest of Russia, and I would sign a mutual agreement with China that if one is attacked, the other will come to their defense. Then the old Cold War will rise again, but the EU is just not trustworthy.
Ukraine is engaging in terrorism, not warfare. They are violating every principle of international law, targeting even an engineer in Trussia who worked on the modernization of Russia’s electronic warfare in Ukraine. This is NOT a legitimate target in war. Ukraine is NOT an honorable adversary. All rules of engagement should be forgotten. So, people who design weapons in Ukraine are legitimate targets for assassination now? That was not how wars were fought.
Moscow will dictate the terms of peace if that can even exist. Zelensky has betrayed the Ukrainian people for all the money. He is so hated in Ukraine, and he knows he would never win an election, so he keeps extending the Martial Law, and the politicians who support him keep filling their offshore accounts with untold amounts of money. Zelensky would have to flee Ukraine forever, and even that will not guarantee his safety. It will be a Ukrainian who assassinates this ruthless individual. If he were an Albanian, they would kill Zelensky, his wife, children, and the dog. Just as Ukrainians are engaging in targeted assassinations of civilians, this places all Ukrainians on a list for assassination.
My ADVICE to Trump: insist that an election take place, and send in Americans to monitor the voting. We have the technology to allow online voting securely. All Ukrainians would be allowed to vote in the Donbas, as well as the 8 million hiding in Europe. Let the Ukrainian people vote on their future – not this obvious piece of shit and that disparages “shit” for he is far worse.
Despite all the fake news, Ukraine is losing and will NEVER survive this Neocon war.
This is NOT my opinion – this is the Computer forecast!
Posted originally on Apr 26, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
COMMENT: Martin,
Had to laugh here’s a comment about Janice Stein and Mark Carney.
As my father in law always said, “in the valley of the blind the one eyed man sees the most.”
The world is full of Academics that have no clue, too many people playing business and politics with other people’s money and lives!
“Janice Stein Endorsed Carney . Canada’s Leading, Most Respected Political Scientist and International Affairs Expert Janice Stein saying “Mark Carney is the “World’s Leading Economist” and Could very well lead the “Whole World” through the Trump Crisis, let alone Canada.” Stein isn’t just a leading voice in Canada—she’s recognized worldwide for her expertise in conflict resolution, global governance, and international relations. When someone of her global standing says this, it’s a big deal! Janice Gross Stein is Canada’s leading, most respected political scientist and international affairs expert.”
When a third of the country works for the Government, and a third is living off the Government, it sure makes it hard for the other third to vote for a Government.
Unfortunately, this Monday, Canada will witness another Liberal win, which will confirm your forecast that Canada will split!
It’s just time!
Jim M
REPLY: Carney was a key player in this Net-Zero nonsense, and he has lied about everything and acts like he is running against Trump – nobody else. I have not yet confirmed that the coup at the WEF was also in hopes of supporting Carney to claim he is not truly linked to Schwab, since he is no longer there. Trudeau resigned to avoid a NO CONFIDENCE vote, which would have led to the loss of power for the Liberals. Every step of this game is to retain power for the LEFT.
Carney is the instrument of Canada’s demise, for the LEFT will always burn down their own houses to protest against the RIGHT. Carney offers nothing that will benefit Canada, and the joke that Canada will replace the USA as the new leader of the world is laughable. Canada is highly socialistic, so the “income inequality” is lower, just like Communist Russia and China, which ultimately caused their demise. The productivity of the US compared to Canada explains the cost of the more regulations that Canada adopts, following Marx’s socialist philosophy.
United States: $76,643
Canada: $56,316 The U.S. GDP per capita is about 36% higher than Canada’s in nominal terms.
The U.S. indeed has higher inequality, so that median income disparities may be less pronounced. The U.S. generally has higher labor productivity due to greater investment in innovation and technology. The U.S. population (332 million) is nearly 9x larger than Canada’s (38 million), the US economy accounts for 25% of the entire world’s consumer spending, which is why the US is the reserve currency of the world because everyone has to sell whatever products for export to Americans – not Canadians.
Carney’s Vision of Replacing the United States as New World Leader
There has been a coup at the World Economic Forum because these very LEFTIST views and agendas are collapsing. So, Carney wants to lead the world on a sinking ship? As one reader put it.
“It appears from here, at first glance, that the WEF is repainting its storefront in an effort to stay in business while narrowing its attacks on the global food supply chain to taking control of the water supply. Same depopulation goal, new coat of paint.”
FA in Arkansas
Military:
The US has one of the largest militaries globally, with approximately 1.3 million active-duty personnel, with 800,000 reserves, which is the highest globally at $877 billion (2023), about 3.5% of GDP.
Canada has around 68,000 active personnel and 27,000 reserves, which cost $26.5 billion (2023), roughly 1.3% of GDP.
The US military is a global powerhouse with unmatched scale and technology, while Canada’s smaller force emphasizes specialized roles, alliances, and domestic/Arctic security. Their cooperation through NATO and NORAD underscores a strategic partnership, with Canada often leveraging US capabilities for broader defense needs. Yet, Carney is claiming that Canada will now lead the world? Differences in budget and scope reflect distinct national priorities.
The 2025 Canadian federal election will be held on April 28 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. The problem with Canada is that the Parliamentary System does not allow the people to vote for who should lead the country. Carney would never become president in the United States, where 42% would be the loser. The problem is that governments are cobbled together with coalitions, and this is what prevents any true economic progress for the future.
The LEFT has been declining since its high in 1949, necessitating coalition governments to remain relevant. Trudeau only won 32.62% of the vote in 2021. Carney should beat that since the 2021 election was most likely the bottom of a 72-year cycle. Additionally, the higher percentage of the workforce employed by the government in Canada naturally gives them an edge over conservatives. The rate of the US workforce employed in government is 13.8%, compared to 18.6% in Canada. This is what has lowered the Marxist view of “income equality” in Canada vs the USA.
We will do an Update on the threat of Canada Splitting soon.
Posted originally on Apr 26, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Nigel Farage said that your WEC events were the “alternative to Davos,” but you also don’t gouge people as Schwab does. He charges between 500,000 and 700,000 CHF to be a member and 27,000 CHF to attend Davos. Your forecasts come true, theirs never do. Our firm did not renew for 2025 after Trump won the election. Our board follows your projections, not those of the World Economic Forum (WEF). You’re correct, you went there only for political connections, not for the forecasts. Their failure to achieve Agenda 2030 is apparent. Schwab’s board members have been placed in high positions, from the ECB and the EU, as well as with the gullible like Trudeau and Carney in Canada.
Nigel’s Reform Party is now also in first place. This is because he shares your philosophy, not Schwab’s.
You are the only real forecaster and the genuine alternative to Davos.
DH
REPLY: Thank you. In all honesty, Schwab was never right because he is an academic caught up in the Marxist theory that the government has the power to control and alter the direction of the economy and society. Nobody has ever been able to change the business cycle, let alone “flatten the curve” of a virus.
He stuffed political positions with his star pupils and bragged about infiltrating so many cabinets, especially those of the Liberal Party in Canada and in New Zealand.
The lockdown destroyed the economy because these people only look at a single issue and cannot understand that (1) we are all connected, and (2) the lockdown failed to reverse the climate change nonsense, which was the fundamental objective, nor did it stop the virus that comes back seasonally. The WEF was proud of the lockdowns.
What they just did to Schwab is consistent throughout history: the LEFT is always the most violent. They always view themselves as the victims of the RIGHT because they work for their money and get ahead. The LEFT revolutions of 1848 and the early 20th century have killed hundreds of millions. Nothing will ever change in this regard.
Posted originally on Apr 25, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Peter Brabeck-Letmathe has replaced Klaus Schwab as the acting CEO of the World Economic Forum in what appears to be a stage coup. The 80-year-old Austrian businessman spent his career working for Nestle, moving through the ranks from 1968 to 1997 when he was appointed CEO, a position he held until 2008. He remained at Nestle as a chairman until 2017, when he was appointed as Chairman Emeritus.
Brabeck-Letmathe held board memberships with Credit Suisse, Roche, Exxon Mobil, L’Oréal, and Salt Mobile SA. He was the founder and chairman of the 2030 Water Resources Group (WRG), a public-private partnership within the World Bank.
The 2030 Water Resources Group (2030 WRG) is a global multi-stakeholder partnership that brings together governments, the private sector, and civil society to address the growing challenges of water scarcity and water management worldwide. This program was first launched at the WEF’s Davos in 2008, and naturally, Nestle is a major partner as well. Demand for water will outweigh supply by 2030, the group insists, and its goal is to manage the world’s water supply.
Nestle extracts free-flowing water, bottles it up in plastic containers, and marks it up for a profit. The company has acquired water extraction rights across North America, permitting it to extract large volumes of water from public lands, springs, and aquifers, often siphoning far more than the law permits. The company effectively found a way to privatize access to water. Many communities have gone without water due to the company’s control over the water supply. The company has no concern for the environment or human rights, and this is merely the tip of the iceberg in terms of their corrupt practices.
What better way to control the masses than to control the water supply? Remember, the World Economic Forum has strongly advocated banning independent farming and gardening. Everything they ban is under the premise of protecting the climate, but as you can see, the new WEF CEO has never cared about the environment.
The WEF partnered with the United Nations to encourage “global policy coherence” and increased investment to manage the world’s water supply. It is no conspiracy – globalist entities are scheming ways to manage our water usage. These unelected entities believe they can deem what constitutes essential and non-essential water usage. Brabeck-Letmathe believes 98.5% of freshwater used for farming and agriculture should be classified as an economic good that is priced according to reduce waste. Controlling the water supply will permit them to also control the food supply.
Peter Brabeck-Letmathe has spent a lifetime studying methods for privatizing water. In the video above, Brabeck-Letmathe said that Klaus Schwab asked him why he wanted to focus on water over CO2 and the Earth’s warming. “I think our real problem is more urgent—it’s on the water side.” He later noted that governments must first believe that they have a water crisis and then partner with the private sector to solve this new problem. Agenda 2030 did not die with Schwab’s departure. There is a new leader at the helm and a new focus to usurp ultimate control over the global population.
There has been a Coup at the WEF for nefarious Reasons,, which we will discuss separately on the weekend
The fragmentation of Canada is bubbling beneath the surface, as we see in the United States as well as in Europe. There is a huge divide between LEFT and RIGHT politics, and never since the late 19th Century to the 1920 period has there ever been such a stark political divide.
There was such a rise in Progressive Socialism that Teddy Roosevelt abandoned the Republican Party, splitting off to create the Progressive Party, also known as the Bull Moose Party, in 1912 following a split within the Republican Party.
There was an ideological split with President William Howard Taft, and these ideas led to the Income Tax in 1913. Roosevelt, a progressive Republican, grew disillusioned with Taft’s conservative policies, such as his support for the Payne-Aldrich Tariff (which raised rates and angered progressives) and his handling of the Ballinger-Pinchot Affair (a dispute over conservation that portrayed Taft as anti-environmental). Roosevelt believed Taft had abandoned progressive reforms
Roosevelt sought the Republican presidential nomination in 1912 but lost to Taft at a contentious convention. Alleging corruption and delegate theft, Roosevelt and his supporters walked out, forming the Progressive Party to continue his Marxist-style agenda. His Progressive Platform was called the “New Nationalism” platform, advocating for:
Strong federal regulation of corporations and monopolies.
Women’s suffrage.
Workers’ rights (minimum wage, workers’ compensation).
Direct election of senators.
Primary elections to reduce political corruption, with candidates selected as in Parliamentary systems.
Social welfare programs (e.g., pensions, child labor laws).
The party aimed to unify reformers and address growing public demand for economic fairness and government accountability during the Progressive Era. It was launched in August 1912 at the Chicago convention, where Roosevelt was nominated for president. The split in Republican votes between Roosevelt (27%) and Taft (23%) handed victory to Democrat Woodrow Wilson, who signed the income tax into law in 1913. Despite losing, the Progressive Party’s ideas influenced later reforms, such as the New Deal and Progressive Era amendments (e.g., direct Senate elections, income tax).
The party dissolved by 1916, but its platform left a lasting mark on U.S. progressive politics. Roosevelt’s campaign highlighted the power of third-party movements to shift national discourse, even in defeat.
We have reached the critical 112-year half-cycle of FAR-LEFT Progressiveness. It is going crazy everywhere. Now, the famous Democratic Advisor James Carville has come out and said the Democratic Party should split. They lost as Teddy Roosevelt lost, and they are taking the Democratic Party with them. We see the same in Canada with Carney. Europe has also gone extreme to the left, censoring free speech to maintain its ideas.
Throughout History – it is ALWAYS the Left that Destroys Civilization
Posted originally on Apr 16, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Zelensky is a professional con artist. He has been steering Europe into World War III and loading up his offshore accounts. He keeps extending Martial Law so he does not have to stand for election. There is no way he would win an election after what he has been doing, kidnapping people off the street and sending them to die on the front line.
From my sources, Zelensky would be lucky to get 25%. In theory, even those in the Donbas and Crimea should be allowed to vote, and the 8 million who fled Ukraine. Those in the Donbas and Brimea would not vote for him, add that to the 75% in the rest of the country who are against him for prolonging this war, and perhaps he is down to 10%.
He extended the Martial Law on February 5th, 2025, until May 9th, 2025. He and his corrupt buddies will extend it again until August. If there was a peace deal that ended the war, he would have to flee. These people will tear him apart.
Oleksiy Arestovych is the former presidential advisor to Zelensky, resigned and fled to New Zealand for his life for criticizing him over corruption. Arestovych has vowed to run for president and imprison Zelensky and all the politicians supporting him, who are destroying the country and wiping out a whole generation, all to enrich themselves.
This is the former adviser to Zelensky, Alexey Arestovich, who quit in protest. He has publicly stated that “The west deceived Russia. They promised not to push NATO to the east, and they did. They turned Ukraine into a huge anti-Russian country. If I was in Russia’s shoes, I would have done the exact same thing.”He has vowed to run for President when elections are held, and he promises to throw Zelensky in prison for life with his cronies.
Zelensky faces a Hobson’s choice – die by firing squad, or hanging?
Zelensky will have to flee Ukraine if there were an actual election. There is no question about it, he will not live to see old age. His personal hatred of Russians will destroy Europe, and new governments will come to power, and they will see him for what he is, assuming he even makes it that far. I do not know where he would get political asylum if there are no WOKE governments standing after 2026-2028.
Posted originally on Apr 14, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Our Institutional Report covering Europe’s countries with their forecasts generally out to 2032 has been a monumental effort. We greatly appreciate your patience, but this is vital for the decision-making for future investment in Europe. Things are certainly different from the past. Countries like Sweden and Switzerland, which had been neutral during previous world wars, have surrendered their neutrality and will not prove a safe harbor for capital during this conflict. Sweden has joined NATO and even sent jets to Poland. Switzerland gave up all foreigners with accounts and seized over $8 billion of accounts belonging to Russians, abandoning its historic traditions.
This report covers countries that nobody else even covers.
This also addresses the War with Russia & The eventual breakup of the EU itself
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This Report is massive, and the price is $10,000 per institution.
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This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
Centinel2012 