Panic Cycles v Waterfall Events


COMMENT: Hi There,
I suggest you do an article on the terminology you use.For example I noted that on your commentary on centamin Egypt you use the term waterfall pattern. You also you use the term panic cycle.An article on these words and their meaning would be helpful.
Thanks

S

REPLY: We do have terminology is the Glossary on this site. The Waterfall Event is a term I coined to describe what I discovered in the study of the rise and fall of empires, nations, and city-states. This differs from a Panic Cycle which reflects just a short-term increase in volatility, which can exceed the previous session high and penetrate the previous session low or make a big move in one direction.  They do not imply the destruction of the system being observed or an individual market.

I have encountered the Waterfall Events such as the collapse of Venice to the 1931 Sovereign DebtCrisis where the foreign government bonds listed on the New York Stock Exchange simple defaulted and went to zero. Thus, the Waterfall is a sharp collapse that will unfold in a market with a decline of generally greater than 50%.

 

The Difference between 2020 and 2032


QUESTION: Hi Martin,

My girlfriend brought up a point about your work during coffee this morning. Basically, she’s confused about the two dates you often mention, 2020 and 2032. She wants to know which date (2020, 2032) you expect the markets move into crises mode due to the lack of confidence in government. I tried to explain but my insight wasn’t good enough.

Could you explain in a future blog the difference between these dates and what you (Socrates) expect to happen during these points in time?

Thanks,
J

ANSWER: The 2032 date is the conclusion of this Private Wave. That is when the power of the West will begin to shift to China for the next cycle that begins thereafter. The 2020 date is when the confidence begins to noticeably begin to turn down for the AVERAGE person.  You can “feel” it in the air already. What the Democrats have done is simply unbelievable. Sure the people who hate Trump cheer. But they fail to understand the system. Whatever they do to the Republicans sets the stage for what will be considered “normal” for the Republicans to do to the Democrats if power shifts.

I have explained that the Democratic victory in the House was really a disaster for this has allowed nothing but the next two years to be confrontation as we are witnessing on the funding of the wall which is only $5.7 billion. In Fiscal Year 2019, the federal budget will be $4.407 trillion. The U.S. government estimates it will receive $3.422 trillion in revenue. That creates a $985 billion deficit for October 1st, 2018 through September 30, 2019. Not only is this less than a single week’s interest payment of $6.7 billion, it is .001% of the annual budget. It is so meaningless it illustrates my point. The Democrats think all they have to do is demonize Trump and OPPOSE absolutely everything he proposes to win the White House in 2020.

We will be running the computer models on the 2020 election. But preliminary indications show that we will see a sharp rise in violence. Neither side will accept the results.

Central Banks v Clearing


Delos, First Central Bank

QUESTION: Dear Martin

Wonder if you have any insights as to the history of the bank clearing process.
Was the clearing process created mainly so banks could play games and earn interest with peoples’ money
with the reasoning that it was to prevent money laundering?

With technological advances today, one can accept an hour or two for automatic name and account number checks to happen
but 3-7 days seems ridiculous.

Any insights to the creation of the clearing process would be enlightening.

Thank you again

KW

ANSWER: The function of bank clearing began with giro-banking, which originated in the Temple of Delos in Greece. The term refers to the circulation of money. It originated where you could write a check to one person and transfer the payment to their account at the same bank. Effectively, in ancient Greece, you would have an account at the Temple in Delos and instruct a transfer to their account in the Temple. The Romans adopted this concept and thus Roman banking was born.

A central bank emerged after the Dark Ages in the early modern history as a government or state-owned banks. The Dutch were pioneers and financial innovators who not only created this state banking concept, but they also invented insurance. The Wisselbank was the first such bank in Amsterdam which was founded in the Dutch Republic during 1609. The Wisselbank became the model of the central banking system and it spread throughout Europe; first in 1668 in Sweden known as the Sveriges Riksbank and then the Bank of England in 1694.

When smaller private banks began to pop up, the state-owned banks emerged as clearing banks where transfers between the accounts at the central bank took place the same as they did between accounts in ancient Delos.

The Wisselbank actually collapsed in 1790 after it was revealed that the deposits have been used secretly to fund the Dutch East India Company. The manipulation was that they represented themselves as just holding money for safe-keeping. They did not lend money out. So when the bank failed and they had been using the money to fund the Dutch East India Company, the city had to bail out the bank and stand behind the losses.

To eliminate cash, the ECB has a secret project to provide instantaneous transfers for each transaction. Therefore, the central bank was simply a state-owned bank whereas a clearing bank was one where all banks must clear transactions

Life Threatening Winter Storms


Parts of Canada could become the coldest spot on the planet with a winter storm coming with crazy frigid temperatures with wind chill factors in the -40oC level for some. This going to be really dangerous. Quite frankly, the human body was NOT designed to handle conditions like that. This is really very dangerous cold and not hype. Your eyes can actually freeze. Anyone who has ever been in real cold will notice that in cold weather notes your eyes will tear up, which is your body’s natural defense trying to reduce the freezing point. You better start regularly blinking your eyes to prevent them from freezing and going blind.

While your eyes can’t freeze solid, your extremities can. That includes feet, fingers, and toes. They can actually freeze to the point that the can even fall off your body, or else needing to be amputated. The human body is designed to maintain a core temperature of 98.6oF (37oC) exactly! Any deviation from that causes serious problems. When the body temperature begins to drop, that’s when hypothermia sets in. The statistics in Canada show that more than 80 people die from extreme cold, according to Environment Canada. 

People who have died from hypothermia seem to lose brain function and become completely confused. They begin taking off their clothes in their final death throes apparently assuming they are hot rather than cold.

If the migration of the North Pole is contributing to this extremely cold weather nobody really knows. We are definitely moving into Solar Minimum. Our greatest risk at this stage in the game is major volcanic eruptions that throw such much debris into the atmosphere we end up with a volcanic winter

Global Warming is All About PRESSURE


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Isn’t Venus much hotter because its atmosphere is almost 100% CO2?

GH

ANSWER: No. The atmosphere of Venus is extremely dense. At the surface it is over 800 degrees, this is true. However, the pressure at the surface is the same as if you were 3000 feet under water. It is the density of the atmosphere that creates the heat, not even the fact that it is closer to the sun. Additionally, the nights are about the same temperature as the days because there is almost no tilt to the planet as we have, which creates the seasons. Venus is actually hotter than Mercury which is the closest planet to the sun. Mercury varies between  -279 Fahrenheit (-173 Celsius) at night to 801 Fahrenheit during the day. Mercury lacks the atmosphere that helps to cloak a planet, keeping heat from leaking into space. Without an atmosphere, Mercury loses a great deal of heat into space, rather than sharing with its night side. This is why its temperature varies more than any other planet in our system.

A simple example of pressure is the difference between a diesel and a gas engine. The diesel engine functions by compressing the gas so it ignites without the need for a spark plug that is necessary for a gasoline engine. It is PRESSURE that creates the heat. That is basic physics. Take plastic bubble wrap. To burst a bubble you apply PRESSURE. The bubble wrap will pop regardless of the gas inside be it oxygen or CO2. The greater the pressure, the hotter it will be at the surface.