Tag Archives: China

Dec 14 2021

U.S. Consumer Survey Expectations of Inflation at Least Doubling Wage Gains – Middle Class Storm Building


Posted Originally on the conservative tree house on December 13, 2021 | Sundance | 156 Comments

The New York Federal Reserve survey reflects the obvious.  Consumers see staple food and energy price increases far outpacing any wage gains, and the outlook moving forward does not show signs of improvement.

The distance between the inflation line and the wage line is the intensity of the hurricane coming our way.

We are in this very weird place where the politically motivated Fed cannot stop purchasing debt created by legislative spending.  At the same time, the political Fed is going to have to raise interest rates or we will enter an impossible spiral of policy caused inflation.  There are three options:  (1) stop buying debt; (2) increase interest rates; or (3) deploy some COVID mechanism to shut down people and hit the demand side.

Considering that Omicron didn’t work, and further panic pushing does not seem politically viable, that only leaves the two options of the Fed stops buying debt, and/or the Fed raises interest rates. Now, considering that these same political ideologues will not stop pushing the Build Back Better legislative agenda, that means the Fed cannot stop buying debt.  That leaves one option remaining, increase interest rates.

Dec 13 (Reuters) – U.S. consumers’ short-term inflation expectations pushed higher in November and expectations for future earnings growth dropped, suggesting they anticipate price increases will outpace wage gains at an even faster rate in the near term, according to a survey released on Monday by the New York Federal Reserve.

Prices for food and other goods are rising at the fastest pace since 1982, according to data released by the Labor Department last week, posing political challenges for President Joe Biden’s administration and cementing expectations the Fed will raise interest rates next year.  (read more)

Dec 14 2021

Topline for Candidates, There Is Only One Donald Trump and Economic Security Is National Security


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on December 13, 2021 | Sundance | 263 Comments

“It must be remembered that there is nothing more difficult to plan, more doubtful of success, nor more dangerous to manage than a new system. For the initiator has the enmity of all who would profit by the preservation of the old institution and merely lukewarm defenders in those who gain by the new ones.” ~ Niccolo Machiavelli

Never has that quote been more apropos than when considering the MAGA movement and the rise of Donald Trump.  Thankfully, we are now in an era when the largest coalition of American voters have awakened to the reality that, to quote the former president: “Economic Security is National Security.”

As we live through the consequences of a Biden administration hell bent on eroding the middle class of the United States, there are numerous pundits contemplating 2024 Republican presidential candidates other than Donald Trump; consider this group the lukewarm defenders Machiavelli noted.

At the same time the leftist coalition, writ large, are apoplectic about the base of the Republican Party now belonging to Donald Trump.  This group consists of those affluent Wall Street agents and politicians set on retaining the profits derived from decades of institutional objectives.

Institutional Democrats hate him and institutional Republicans are lukewarm, at best, in defending him.

Both wings of the DC UniParty want a different direction.

In this outline, I rise to explain why Donald Trump is the only option for the America First MAGA coalition; and I make my case not on supposition, but on empirical reference points that most should understand.

If you accept that at its essential core elements the phrase “economic security is national security” is true; meaning the lives of the American citizen, person, worker, individual or family are best when their economic position is secure; then any potential leader for our nation must be able to initiate policies that directly touch the economics of a person’s life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.  As a result, economic security and economic policy must be the fulcrum of their platform.

Now, look around and ask yourself this question: “What separated Donald J. Trump from the remaining field of 17 GOP candidates in 2016?”   An honest topline answer would be immigration (border control), and his views on American economic policy.   In essence, what set Donald Trump apart from all other candidates was his view on the U.S. economy, and that was the driving factor behind ‘Make America Great Again’, MAGA.

Now, look around.  Look at every other potential candidate for political office. Is there another person in the field of your political view who comes from the starting point that economic security is national security?

Put aside all other issues and shiny things that may change from moment to moment as the political winds swirl and settle, and ask yourself that question.  Who can deliver MAGA, if not the central person who lives, eats, sleeps and thinks about U.S. economic security from every angle at every second of every hour of every day.  That’s Donald J. Trump.

Trump knows the extremely consequential sequence of BIG things that lead to a structurally strong American economic foundation.   We don’t have to guess at whether Trump can deliver on that policy sequence, we have reference points.

♦ Donald Trump knew that independent U.S. energy policy was a condition for a strong U.S. economy. He also knew there would be negative consequences to allies and partners if the U.S. energy policy was independent.  Trump knew that OPEC nations in general would be negatively impacted, and he knew that Saudi Arabia specifically would be weakened geopolitically.   That is why the very first foreign trip by Donald Trump was to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States that make up the majority of OPEC.

Look at what President Trump did on that trip.  First, he assured Saudi Arabia that the United States would stand with the Gulf Cooperation Council and Mid-East nations as it pertained to their security.  Trump knew making the largest energy consuming nation independent from foreign oil would be adverse to the economic stability of the Mid-East, and as an outcome, could open a door to destabilization from extremist or ideological groups therein.

Take away top-line economic revenue from Saudi et al, and the leaders of those oil economies have a more difficult time remaining stable and controlling unrest and extremism.  Generations of Arab citizens know nothing other than the trickle down benefits of oil exports.  President Trump knew this, and he approached our need for energy independence by first assuring the Arab states of his commitment to their stability and safety.

President Trump delivered to those states a list of approved arms and defense agreements during that trip.  In essence, what he was doing was putting the promise of security into actual delivery of tools to retain that security.  Actions speak louder than words.  President Trump also promised to work diligently on peace in the region; a real substantive and genuine peace that would provide security in the big picture.

Over the course of the next few years, Trump delivered on that set of promises with the Abraham accords.   Yes, economic security as national security applies to our allies as well as ourselves.  Again, actions speak louder than words.

With the U.S. energy independence program in place, President Trump then moved in sequence to the next big thing.

♦ Donald Trump moved to face the challenge of China.   A major shift in U.S. policy that is likely considered the biggest geopolitical shift in the last 75 years.  Trump strategically began with Trade Authority 302 national security Steel and Aluminum tariffs at 25% and 10% not only toward China but targeted globally.

The entire multinational system was stunned at the bold step with tariffs.   But remember, before Trump went to Saudi Arabia, he held a meeting with Chairman Xi Jinping in Mar-a-Lago.  The global trade world was shocked by the tariff announcement, but I’ll bet you a doughnut Chairman Xi was not.

That February 2017 meeting, only one month after his inauguration, was President Trump graciously informing Chairman Xi, in the polite manner that respectful business people do, that a new era in the U.S-China relationship was about to begin.  New trade agreements, new terms and conditions were to be expected in the future.  The tariff announcement hit Wall Street hard, but not Beijing – who knew it was likely.

U.S. financial pundits proclaimed the sky was surely falling.  These tariffs would cause prices to skyrocket, the global order of all things around trade was under attack by Trump.  They waxed and shouted about supply chains being complicated and intertwined amid the modern manufacturing era that was too complex for President Trump to understand with such a heavy handed tariff hammer.   Remember all of that?  Remember how cars were going to cost thousands more, and beer kegs would forever be lost because the orange man had just triggered steel and aluminum tariffs?

Did any of that happen?  No. Of course it didn’t. Actually, the opposite was true and no one could even fathom it.  Communist China first responded by subsidizing all of their industries targeted by the tariffs with free energy and raw materials, etc.  China triggered an immediate reaction to lower their own prices to offset tariffs.  Beijing did not want the heavy industries and factories to start back up again in the U.S, so they reacted with measures to negate the tariff impact.

China’s economy started to feel the pressure and panda was not happy.  Eventually, as the tariffs expanded beyond Steel and Aluminum to other specific segments and categories, China devalued their currency to lower costs even further for U.S. importers.  The net result was something no one could have imagined.  With lower prices, and increased dollar strength, we began importing all Chinese products at cheaper rates than before the tariffs were triggered.  Yes, we began importing deflation.  No one saw that coming…. but Trump did.

While all that initial U.S-China trade shock was taking place, Donald Trump took his next foreign trip to… wait for it…. Southeast Asia.

Just like in the example of the trip to Saudi Arabia, economically-minded Trump told partners and leaders in the export producing countries of Japan, Malaysia, South Korea, Vietnam, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and ASEAN nations to prepare for additional business and new trade agreements with the U.S., as factories inside China might start to decouple.   Look at how they responded, they did exactly what Trump said would be in their best interests.

To seriously gather the focus of this SE Asia group, President Trump started direct talks with North Korea and Chairman Kim Jong-un for peace and regional stability.  It’s easy to forget just how stunning this was at the time, but generations of people in Asia were jaw-agape at the U.S. President confronting China, engaging with North Korea, and opening his arms to new trade deals with ASEAN partners.

On the world stage of geopolitics and global trade, any one of these moves would be a monumental legacy initiative all by itself.  But together, simultaneously, you can see how the entire continent physically stopped midstride and stood staring at this, this man, this American President, who was just about to step across the Demilitarized Zone in North Korea and shake hands with Chairman Kim…. and, wait for it…. they are smiling.

√ Energy security triggered and friends in Mid-East supported.

√ Mid-East peace initiatives triggered.

√ A return of heavy industry and manufacturing security triggered.

√ A confrontation of Chinese economic influence triggered.

√ Stability between South Korea and North Korea, triggered.

√ New trade deals and economic partnerships with Japan and South Korea, triggered.

And then, as if that was not enough… just as multinational investment groups started realizing they needed to change their outlooks and drop the decades long view of the U.S. as a “service driven economy”… just as they realized they needed to start investing domestically inside the United States for their own growth and financial security… as if all that wasn’t enough… President Trump kicks off an entirely new trade deal and renegotiated standard for all North American trade via NAFTA.

We don’t have to guess at whether Donald Trump can put together a program to ensure Economic Security is National Security.  We don’t have to guess at whether Donald Trump can deliver on economic policy.  We don’t have guess if Trump’s policy platform, proposals and initiatives would be successful.  We have the experience of it.  We have the results of it.  We have felt the success of it.

We also don’t need to guess at who is the best candidate to lead Making America Great Again, we already know who that is.

There is no other 2024 Presidential Candidate who I am aware of who could possibly achieve what Donald John Trump has achieved, or who could even fathom contemplating how to achieve a quarter of what President Trump achieved.

Do not tell me Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is a better option. DeSantis is an unknown commodity, a blank slate, when it comes to big picture economic outlooks. DeSantis doesn’t have an economic agenda inside his administration from which to contemplate or analyze his economic views.

Governor Ron DeSantis has a lot of really good skills and policies on the domestic front unique to his position in Florida; however, it is not a slight toward him to point out he has never expressed any larger economic proposal that would give any confidence in a national economic policy.

Look at the sum total of it, and there’s so much more that could be outlined to what Donald Trump achieved and could yet still achieve achieve, it’s not even a close question.

And that my friends is exactly why Donald Trump is under relentless attack from both wings of the UniParty in DC.  Additionally, it is clear the Wall Street republicans are trying to position Ron DeSantis as an alternative to another Trump term.  Look carefully at the current advocates for DeSantis, Nikki Haley and/or Kristi Noem, and you will note every one of those early voices are attached to favorable Wall Street politics and multinational corporate advocacy.

Look at what Donald J. Trump was able to achieve while he was under constant political attack.  Just imagine what Trump 2.0 would deliver.

They, the leftist Democrats and Wall Street Republicans, are yet again absolutely petrified of that.

Dec 13 2021

Loyalty – Family or Government?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Police State Re-Posted Dec 13, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

America’s sweetheart, Dr. Fauci, would like to divide families this holiday season by urging people to ensure their relatives and friends are vaccinated. Fauci said only vaccinated groups should gather so that “vaccinated people can feel comfortable.” So tell your grandfather with the pacemaker to stay home alone this Christmas. Perhaps tell your cousin not to bring her unvaccinated baby too. “That’s the reason why people should, if they invite people over their home, essentially ask and maybe require that people show evidence that they are vaccinated,” Dr. Fauci actually said out loud.

This is exactly what the Stasi did in former East Germany until the Ministry for State Security (Stasi) was abolished in March 1990. The Stasi encouraged people to spy on neighbors, friends, and relatives. Children were expected to turn their parents into the state. Under their premise, your loyalty should stand with the state first and foremost.

Snowden’s leak stated that today’s NSA can compile 5 billion mobile records per day, and 42 billion internet records per month. The FBI recently released a document stating they can hack into iMessage and WhatsApp within 15 minutes. The advancement in technology has paved the way for a police state to control the public far beyond anything the Stasi pulled. The government is not your family.

Dec 13 2021

Inflation Soared to 6.8% in November


Armstrong Economics Blog/Inflation Re-Posted Dec 13, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

Inflation is soaring with no end in sight. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.8% in November, marking a 6.8% increase in inflation YoY. According to the Labor Department, this is the fastest pace of inflation since June 1982. In addition, Core-CPI rose 0.5% last month, amounting to a 4.9% annual increase, the quickest advancement since 1991.

Energy prices alone have spiked 33.3% in the past year, and gasoline prices are up 58.1%. Over the past 12 months, food and energy prices rose at the most rapid pace in 13 years. Shelter costs, amounting to one-third of CPI, rose 3.8% on an annual basis. This level has not been seen since the 2007 housing crisis wreaked havoc on the US real estate market.

Despite pay increases of 4.8% this year, real hourly earnings decreased 1.9% over the past 12-months. Service costs rose at the fastest pace since 2007 as well, advancing 3.4% over the past year. Apparel costs are also up by 5% since last November. Everywhere you look, prices are drastically rising.

Overall, the cost of living is astronomical. Basic necessities such as food and shelter price increases have caused more middle-class Americans to begin living paycheck to paycheck. The Federal Reserve claimed it would step in if inflation reached an unsustainable level. A 6.8% increase is unsustainable, inflation is not transitory, and neither the government nor the Fed has made a valid effort to control this growing problem.

Dec 13 2021

Semiconductor Shortage Hurting Smartphone Industry


Armstrong Economics Blog/Technology Re-Posted Dec 13, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Hi Martin. Thank you for your work. The chip and supply shortage has not improved. I live in America outside a major city. My cellular device failed at the beginning of November so I ordered a replacement directly from Samsung. Best Buy and my cellular provider were both out of the phone I was seeking, and I went to around five stores. Shipping from Samsung was supposed to take a bit over a week, then two weeks, and now the ETA is in January. The stores I went into had Apple iPhones but not Androids. Frustrating.

REPLY: Now is an unfortunate time to need a new phone. Numerous original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) reported failing to secure crucial parts this year due to semiconductor shortages. Counterpoint Research lowered their forecast of global smartphone shipments from 1.45 billion units to 1.41 billion. Their study further suggests that smartphone OEMs only received 80% of the crucial components they need this year to manufacture phones during the second half of the year.

Samsung completely canceled their Galaxy Note series this year as they knew they would not be able to obtain the components. “Samsung, Oppo, Xiaomi have all been affected and we are lowering our forecasts. But Apple seems to be the most resilient and least affected by the AP (application processor) shortage situation,” Tom Kang, a researcher with Counterpoint reported in October. Kang’s research did not indicate why Apple was more immune to the chip shortage. Numerous companies are racing to produce highly in-demand chips, but it will take time for manufacturing to begin.

Dec 13 2021

Sunday Talk Warning, Mohamed El-Erian Concedes His Economic Views Are Now Contingent Upon Climate Change Driving Policy


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on December 12, 2021 | Sundance | 145 Comments

Well, there’s another “economist” who can be set into the folder of ‘no longer useful’.  During his appearance today on CBS Face The Nation, Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser for Allianz, finishes his segment by revealing his underlying precept: Climate Change policy is now the economic policy driver of all his investment advice.

Within the interview, El-Erian said the “characterization of inflation as transitory is probably the worst inflation call in the history of the Federal Reserve.”  Additionally, El-Erian said inflation is likely to remain high into the next year and perhaps beyond.  Unfortunately, other than those two points of generally well educated accuracy, everything else is wrapped up in the political correctness of climate change…. which, you don’t really discover until the very end of the interview. WATCH:

The baseline for El-Erian saying the Build Back Better spending fiasco is a good thing, is based on accepting the pretense that massive amounts of federal spending will be needed to structurally change the U.S. economy from fossil fuel use to the Green New Deal.   If you do not believe in this transformation, there is no merit to any component of the BBB spending proposal. It really is that simple.

As a consequence, El-Erian is staking the position that climate change agenda politics is now the focal point from which all other economic policy will be determined.  He has conceded in his mind and worldview, perhaps based on his associations and peer discussions, that any forward economic analysis must therefore establish itself from the alternative fuel position.

It is only from the position that climate change is baked into forward economic outlooks that El-Erian can state inflation is structurally survivable, at the current level, with additional spending by federal government.

If he’s right…if congress does pass the BBB/GND at a level they are currently debating, then inflation will rise at/near current levels through Jan, Feb, March, then plateau around March/April for a few months, and then spike again -even higher- sometime around the spring 2022.

Keep in mind, in order for inflation to spike again in 2022, it will be building upon the prior massive inflationary step of 2021, because inflation is a measure of the percent change in prices year over year.

In 2021, we experienced around a 5% jump in overall CPI prices starting in the spring.  That initial inflation jump cycles through at the same time next year, and you would expect the rate of inflation to drop or stabilize once the comparison period is passed in 2022.   If the BBB bill is passed, the rate will jump again even when it cycles through the calendar.

  • Example: December 2020 bread was $3.00
  • December 2021 bread is $4.00  (25% increase over 2020)
  • June 2022 bread at $5.00 is a 20% increase over 2021.  Price difference same, but the rate of inflation is lower.

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Imagine the prices in the scenario above if the rate of inflation in 2022 is the same or higher than 2021.  That’s the part people need to start thinking about now.

  • Example-2:  December 2020 Gasoline was $2.00/gal
  • December 2021 Gasoline is $3/gal (50% increase)
  • June 2022 Gasoline is $4.50/gal (50% increase), $5/gal, $5.50/gal etc

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The downstream consequences of interim energy policy shifts are major increases in current energy costs.

Few people realize how much everything jumps in price simply because oil, gas and energy costs increase.  The entire process of creating stuff (raw materials), moving stuff, processing stuff (intermediate), transporting stuff, finishing stuff, shipping stuff, storing stuff, distributing stuff and selling stuff becomes a rising cumulative cost inside the supply chain.

When energy prices go up, a snowball effect starts traveling down the mountain getting bigger and bigger as it heads towards your house.

As Obama said, “Under my administration, energy prices will necessarily skyrocket“, but he could never actually do the structural energy change because: (1) Republicans took control of the House in January 2011; and (2) the economic blast damage would have been just too catastrophic for any attempt at re-election in 2012.

Joe Biden frees the leftists from those ideological constraints.

Everything you would normally consider to be a concern, anything that would limit the extremes of any legislative effort, has been removed. They plan to lose next year, so they have nothing to lose right now.

Joe Biden is an appointed figurehead for a background agenda driven by Obama’s Chicago Marxists and the global leftists.

The Biden far-left policy agenda is strategically a massive throw everything at the legislative process, in an effort to create major change in a short period of time.  COVID is being used as the cover story, Biden is the disposable front man, and Nancy Pelosi is the facilitating legislative cohort.

Massive inflation, skyrocketing gas prices, collapsed supply chains, empty shelves or shortages in products, increased crime, devalued dollar, diminished international influence, horrible polling, predictable political consequences, none of this matters because Biden is disposable to the agenda.

Additionally, there are no limits to the obvious lies they will tell, because no one inside the administration cares about any public impact. This current effort is to drive the agenda regardless of political damage that can only catch them, or block them, in the 2022 mid-term election.

The “Green New Deal” legislation *is* the “Build Back Better” legislation.  Once they get that bill passed, it’s mission accomplished.  This is a legacy move for Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, Mitch McConnell and Joe Biden.  This is the fundamental change part.

It appears in the interview with CBS Margaret Brennan, Mohamed El-Erian is accepting this Build Back Better legislation (or something similar) will pass the Senate and be enacted into law.   At the very least, he is accepting that ‘climate change policy’ is now fundamentally accepted by U.S. voters.  That perspective forms the baseline for him saying the climate change agenda is now baked into the U.S. economy, and inflation will have to be accepted – albeit at a debatable scale.

I hope El-Erian is wrong, because he is massively underestimating the scale of what will happen with total economic inflation as a consequence.

Factually, I think his analysis is corrupted by his associations on Wall Street.  The elites (in his circle) think We The People are not smart enough to see what can happen if this complete transformation of the U.S. energy system is changed; or as healthcare policy architect Jonathan Gruber later said publicly, “We relied upon the stupidity of the American voter” to create Obamacare, the transformation in the healthcare system.

I am cautiously optimistic they are both wrong right now, although I can also see how this COVID noise is providing them a lot of cover.

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Dec 13 2021

Panic Hits Meet The Press as They Contemplate Collective Media’s Inability to Destroy Donald Trump and Manipulate Public Opinion


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on December 12, 2021 | Sundance | 319 Comments

The NBC media panel for Meet the Press is absolutely apoplectic about their inability to destroy President Donald Trump and his supportive base of pragmatic, awakened Americans.   The pearl-clutching and fear are palpable, as the leftist roundtable contemplates future elections that may deconstruct decades of election control, manipulation, fraud and falsehood.

What the panel of John Heilemann, Marianna Sotomayor, Kimberly Atkins Stohr and Brendan Buck really fear is the pesky system within our constitutional republic we call ‘federalism’.   They need to keep their attacks against Donald Trump cast in the role of eliminating baby Hitler simply to avoid confronting the flaws in their own ideological arguments.  They fear freedom. They need the collective. Individual liberty is against their own sense of self and purpose.

If you listen through their nonsense (not for the faint of heart), all of the panel apoplexy boils down to individual states in control of their own elections.  What they fear is federalism itself, which makes sense when you remind yourself there are two generations of leftists who were taught that collectivism (the we are the world crap), where only one centralized federal government, of all consuming power and authority, should be allowed to make decisions.  WATCH:

While it would be fun to debate a group like this, the core of their fear is a diminishing ability to control.  As CTH reminds frequently, the need for control is a reaction to fear. This applies in all levels of social society from elections to COVID responses.  Elites need control, because at their core they fear the inherent inequity of freedom.

Sally Struthers pleads into the camera for donations to feed the starving child in her arms in Africa… leftists swoon, and the U.N. activates.  Meanwhile, some pragmatist watching the commercial leans over to her husband and says, “I wonder why the cameraman didn’t just give the kid a sandwich”?

Control is a reaction to fear. Think in terms of politics and society – the fear behind leftist politics is the fear that someone might withhold things (opportunities, money, whatever) from me.  Fear that if you live your life in a way I dislike that it might affect my life. Fear that if you get that job, there will be nothing left for me. Fear that if you make tons of money, it means there’s less money out there for me. So, people who believe in leftist ideologies seek control as a means of trying to create guarantees and safeguards against those circumstances they fear.

The DC UniParty knows exactly how to exploit that fear, and both Democrats and Republicans love to provide those guarantees and safeguards.

Modern “liberals”, leftists, try to control the world and people to enable their comfort and happiness. Which, as we know, is an endless quest. Trying to control others does nothing in the way of making oneself happy. By extension, voting in this mindset so that government can try to control others will also – shocking – not lead to a happier, more comfortable life.

The conservative (and moderate, independent, but for the sake of expediency, the conservative), on the other hand, relies on himself to meet his own needs. And the trade off of being free to live his life as he wishes, is also understanding that he has to make peace with how you live yours. By extension, aware that he wants to be able to hold onto this liberty and freedom forever, the conservative votes accordingly, so that everyone can remain free and in charge of his or her own life.

But here’s the crucial difference, perhaps, particularly where misery on the left stems: The conservative does not worry, so to speak, about you. The conservative knows that you were born with the same access to self-love, self-empowerment, self-determination and self-reliance that we all were, no matter the circumstances into which you were born. (Think about the millions of people this country has allowed to crawl up from poverty into prosperity – the conservative KNOWS this is possible.) And the conservative believes that if you want prosperity, or a good job, or a good education, you can make it happen – but you have to work hard.

The conservative hopes and intends that the free markets bring you all of the affordable and positive opportunities and resources that you need. The conservative also knows that on the other side of that hard work is great reward – material and, more importantly, emotional, spiritual and mental.

The conservative understands that not only is it a waste of time to try to control you, it’s actually impossible. Humans were born to be free. And if we put a roadblock in front of you, you’ll find another way around it. So we see attempts at control as a waste of resources, energy and time at best, and at worst, creating detrimental results that serve to hinder people’s upward mobility or teach dependence. We see much more efficiency, as well as endless opportunity, in leaving you to your own devices. And we want the same in return.

This is where modern democrats misview conservatives as heartless. But really, the conservative believes that there is one and one path only to sustainable success and independence – and that is self-empowerment. All other avenues – welfare, affirmative action, housing loans you can’t actually afford – ultimately risk doing a disservice to people, as they teach dependence on special circumstances, the govt, or arbitrary assistance (that can disappear tomorrow). And the real danger – they will ALWAYS backfire, and leave the recipient in equally or more dire circumstances. Any false improvement will always expire.

The conservative believes in abundance. The liberal believes in scarcity.

The conservative believes man is born free and will be who he is, no matter what arbitrary limitations or rules are put on him. The leftist believes man is perfectible, and by extension, believes a society at large is perfectible, and command and control is justified in the quest to a “perfect” utopian society. (Sounds familiar!)

The conservative tends to be more faithful – and not necessarily in God, but in the ability of the individual to find great strength in himself (or from his God) to get what he needs and to be successful. Therefore the conservative has an outlet for his fear and disappointment – trust and faith in something bigger.

The leftist believes the system must be perfected in order to enable success. Therefore disappointment is channeled as anger and blame at the system. Voids are left to be filled by faith in the govt, which they surely then want to come in and “fix” things.

And therein lie the roots of love and fear respectively. For the conservative, when life presents great struggles, he knows he has the power to surmount them. Happiness stems from internal strength and perseverance. For the modern leftist, when life presents great struggles, the system failed, therefore they were at the mercy of a faulty system, and they believe that only when the system is fixed can their life improve. Happiness is built on systemic contingencies, which they will then seek to control or expect someone else to.

One blames himself. The other blames anyone and everyone but himself.

And there it is. There’s where the meanness comes from. The leftist ideology causes that person to cast anger at the world when things go wrong or appear “unfair.” He constantly chooses only to see the “injustices” – and that makes for a very miserable, mean, blame-casting existence.

One last point that we have seen over and over and over with many (not all) of our leftist friends: Extreme stinginess and cheapness.

In our conservative community growing up, we were always taught that you give when people are in need – make donations to the Red Cross when there’s an earthquake, donate to charity when you can afford it, etc. Even if it’s just $50 here and there – it’s the right thing to do. Conservatives see this as the responsibility that comes with gaining from the capitalistic system; if you happen to benefit greatly from the system, it’s your duty to give back.

The liberal, on the other hand, does not seem to share this same viewpoint, at least not in my experience. They perhaps think this is linked to believing in scarcity, and that your dollar comes at the cost of mine. So it seems that liberals, on some level of consciousness, feel guilty about not being voluntarily charitable. Therefore, to write off their guilt, they outsource their “generosity” to the government by voting for wealth re-distributive policies. Thus, the liberal cheats himself of the joy and addictiveness of direct generosity. (Not to mention – redistributive policies ALWAYS end up disempowering those who they’re meant to help.)

We think the Treehouse is a good armory for those who are doing long distance walking for the sake of our nation. We hope you’ll think so, too. Find yourself a good branch….or just pull up a rock to the campfire.

Dec 13 2021

Even ABC/IPSOS Cannot Manipulate Polls Heavily Enough to Protect Joe Biden from His Pro-crime and Hyper-Inflation Policies


Posted Originally on the Conservative tree house on December 12, 2021 | Sundance | 123 Comments

ABC/IPSOS are trying hard, very hard, to provide cover for Joe Biden. [IPSOS Release Here – pdf data Here]  However, even within what they call a “probability-based sample of pre-selected” Americans, aka “the knowledge panel“, the responses toward Joe Biden show a nationwide rejection of the White House occupant.

A heavily weighted sample of 28% support Biden’s efforts on inflation.  The rest of their pre-selected panel say he sucks.

Another weighted sample shows 36% think Biden is doing a good job on crime.  The rest of their pre-selected panel say no, Biden sucks.

(Via ABC) President Joe Biden is facing significant skepticism from the American public, with his job approval rating lagging across a range of major issues, including new lows for his handling of crime, gun violence and the economic recovery, a new ABC/Ipsos poll finds.

[…] More than two-thirds of Americans (69%) disapprove of how Biden is handling inflation (only 28% approve) while more than half (57%) disapprove of his handling of the economic recovery. 

[T]he survey also reveals weaknesses from Biden’s own party with only a slim majority of Democrats (54%) approving. Biden’s orbit is also hemorrhaging independent voters, with 71% disapproving of his handling of inflation.

[…] As the national murder rates see historic jumps, only a little more than 1 in 3 Americans (36%) approve of Biden’s handling of crime, down from 43% in an ABC News/Ipsos poll in late October. (read more)

The White House strategy to deny chaos created by their policies, and yet demanding that media report good things about Main Street collapsing, does not seem to be working.  Apparently, an overwhelming majority of Americans now believe what they see and feel for themselves. 

Dec 13 2021

Swamp Gatekeeper Chris Wallace Leaving Fox News Effective Immediately for New Position at CNN


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on December 12, 2021 | Sundance | 359 Comments

It was always Chris Wallace’s job to protect the DC interests by tamping down any sunlight upon corrupt UniParty politics.  That’s the reason why CTH called Wallace the deep swamp ‘gatekeeper‘ for a decade.

Wallace, the top player amid many such players at Fox News, was always a narrative platform provider to distribute media points that supported the institutional administrative state in DC.    However, thanks to the rise of pragmatic conservatism, a movement created by Donald Trump and commonly identified as MAGA, in recent years more people have caught on to how this insufferable media game is played.

Chris Wallace was increasingly becoming naked to his audience, and as a direct outcome, increasingly useless for propaganda distribution.  Today, the functionally obsolescent gatekeeper announced, effective immediately, he was leaving Fox News.  Moments later, CNN announced Chris Wallace was joining them.  In essence, Wallace moves from controlled opposition to direct opposition. WATCH:

The CNN welcome announcement is AVAILABLE HERE.

Wallace was not the first departure.  The increased public awareness of the manipulative construct that is Fox News (writ large) is the same reason why Steve Hayes and Jonah Goldberg were released.  That is also the same motive for Fox hiring Dan Bongino.

Although it is yet to be announced, the Fox News contracts for Sean Hannity and Laura Ingraham also will not be renewed after their current terms expire.   With more people finding more places where genuine source material facts are cited with sunlight, the ability for controlled opposition pundits to thrive is demonstrably lessened.

Traditional cable news is modifying itself accordingly with subscription based services.

If you want to avoid uncomfortable truth, if you want to be fed propaganda, if you want to get talking points just to support your skewed and ideologically flawed world view, and if you want to avoid confronting your own preconceptions, the subscriber services from both Fox News and CNN will now provide the direct injection of propaganda and misinformation you need to retain the status quo.  This is the new business model for cable news platforms.

An entirely new media infrastructure has assembled outside the influence of corporations.  Understanding current events, real news and information based on fact, is no longer dependent on corporations.  Independent researchers and information providers are giving the raw material citations directly to audiences on a variety of platforms.

In the bigger picture, these are the consequences from identifying “fake news” publicly, and yes, we can thank Donald J. Trump for that.  This is the biggest gift that Donald Trump created outside of his America First political agenda.  Donald J. Trump was/is a walking red pill; a “touchstone”: a visible, empirical test or criterion for determining the quality or genuineness of anything political.

Without Trump, the business models of CNN, MSNBC, Fox News and the alphabet broadcasters would never have collapsed as quickly.  He alone accomplished that.

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Dec 12 2021

New Zealand’s Tobacco Industry to Become Obsolete


Armstrong Economics Blog/Regulation Re-Posted Dec 12, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

New Zealand plans to make the tobacco industry obsolete among future generations. Associate Health Minister Dr. Ayesha Verrall announced plans to pass the Smokefree Aotearoa 2025 Action Plan, with the goal of eliminating tobacco in the country in the next four years. As a result, cigarette companies will be prohibited from advertising in New Zealand. When the law goes into effect, teenagers under the age of 14 will never have the ability to purchase legal tobacco in their lifetimes. In addition, the majority of controversial flavored e-cigarettes aside from mint, menthol, and tobacco were banned in August as they are said to appeal to the youth.

The government is also taking measures to help older generations quit by gradually reducing nicotine content in cigarettes and removing filters. Currently, 8,000 retailers have the ability to sell tobacco products in the nation, but that will be reduced to only 500 locations. In four years, the only cigarettes available will contain a very low level of nicotine before they are phased out completely.

Verrall claims the move will save New Zealand $5 billion in healthcare costs. According to estimates, the average smoker in New Zealand spends $238 per week on cigarettes, amounting to $12,400 annually. The move will make New Zealand’s tobacco industry the most restricted in the world, behind Bhutan where cigarette products are prohibited entirely. However, tobacco sales compose around 40% of total convenience retail revenue in the nation. Opponents say that prohibition has never worked, and the ban will lead to an unregulated black market. Small dairies (i.e., grocery stores) are upset over the law as it will deplete much of their revenue, and the government has said it will not step in to bail out businesses affected by the mandate.