Tag Archives: Hunt for Taxes

Aug 8 2018

ECM & the Cycle Inversion?


Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM

Re-Posted Aug 8, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

The Economic Confidence Model (ECM) is a global business cycle. The entire world economy NEVER peaks and bottoms together. This latest turning point of July 12th, 2018 (2018.529) has apparently provided a MAJOR warning that we just could be moving into a major Cycle Inversion from the perspective of the United States. What does that mean? It means that the USA may be moving into a serious high in 2020 against a backdrop of a decline for the world insofar as liquid assets (non-fixed). The China share market has just lost its status as king of the mountain in Asia as Japan has once again reclaimed that lofty position from a value perspective.

The ONLY markets, currency and economy moving against this global bearish trend into 2020 has been the United States. The Dow Jones Industrial Index broke out above the simple Downtrend Line, whereas we do not see this in Europe or Asia.

When we look at the array of world currencies, it is hard to mistake the fact that the dollar is rising. The ONLY other currency to benefit has been Canada. This is reflecting a shift in global capital flows to North America. Canada has been to some extent benefited by its proximity to the United States and has offered some diversification for European and Asian capital outflows.

When we look at the Canadian share market index (TSE), we can see that the July 12th turning point produced the highest closing during July. By the time we reach the World Economic Conference in Orlando on November 16-17, 2018 (Friday & Saturday), we will be approaching the Pi turning point on November 22/23rd, 2018 the next week. Besides the US mid-term elections, we are facing a very critical people in Europe. November is lining up to be an important turning point in the currencies. This is shaping up to ensure that the Orlando WEC event will be a hot topic this year and we hope to strategically set the stage for the balance of the ECM wave from there onward into 2020.

Aug 8 2018

Election Night: MAGA Republican Troy Balderson Holds Ohio CD-12, Schuette Wins Michigan Gov Primary…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on August 7, 2018 by

An important election night finds MAGA Trump Republicans holding and advancing positions in Ohio (CD12), Michigan (Schuette), Missouri (Hawley) and possibly Kansas.

The most watched race was the special election in Ohio CD-12.  Democrats spent a great deal of money supporting Danny O’Conner; the race was close, but it appears Troy Balderson has won with the lift of President Trump’s recent campaign.

Aug 7 2018

Justin From Canada Asks For Help in Saudi Dispute…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on August 7, 2018 by

Apparently Justin from Canada, sans Princess Rainbow Sparkles, has asked the U.K. and United Arab Emirates to intervene after Saudi Arabia puts a ban on commerce, and cancels grain purchase contracts…

(Reuters) – Canada plans to seek help from the United Arab Emirates and Britain to defuse an escalating dispute with Saudi Arabia, sources said on Tuesday, but close ally the United States made clear it would not get involved.

The Saudi government on Sunday recalled its ambassador to Ottawa, barred Canada’s envoy from returning and placed a ban on new trade, denouncing Canada for urging the release of jailed rights activists. Riyadh accused Ottawa on Tuesday of interfering in its internal affairs.

One well placed source said the Liberal government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau – which stresses the importance of human rights – planned to reach out to the United Arab Emirates.

[…] The United States, traditionally one of Canada’s most important friends, stayed on the sidelines. U.S. President Donald Trump – who criticized Trudeau after a Group of Seven summit in June – has forged tighter ties with Riyadh.

“Both sides need to diplomatically resolve this together. We can’t do it for them; they need to resolve it together,” U.S. State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert told a briefing.

[…]  The office of Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland did not respond to requests for comment.  (read more)

Aug 7 2018

Federal Prosecutors Convict Rebellious Septuagenarians For Purchasing Ginseng at Wrong Time of Year…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on August 7, 2018 by

Thankfully we don’t have to worry about those pesky diabetic septuagenarians running amok with bags of illegal Arkansas ginseng any longer.  Today a federal conviction hopes to stomp out the underground treatment of Alzheimers, heart disease, fatigue, erectile dysfunction, hepatitis C, high blood pressure and menopausal symptoms….

MISSOURI – […] The Springfield News-Leader reports 77-year-old Kermit Schofield and his wife, 73-year-old Sandy Schofield were sentenced Tuesday.

The couple farms and sells herbs in Theodosia, a town of about 250 people near the Missouri-Arkansas border.

Federal prosecutors say that between June 2013 and August 2015 the Schofields illegally bought more than 100 pounds of ginseng in Arkansas. Prosecutors say the couple bought the ginseng outside the permitted time frame for purchasing ginseng in Missouri, and they knew it was illegal transport ginseng out of Arkansas without a state certification. (more)

Aug 7 2018

Trade Report: China May Have To Resume U.S. Soybean purchases Within Weeks…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on August 7, 2018 by

As many have discussed, due to their volume requirements China cannot secure their supply chain for soybeans without purchasing U.S. soybean crops.   China can purchase soybeans from Brazil and Argentina; however, that only leads to Argentina increasing it’s soybean purchases from the U.S.  Amplifying this issue are current lower yields from South America in their soybean crops.

…“There is a risk that China will have to cut back its livestock production, implying higher prices on the domestic market.”…

(Reuters) – China may have to start buying U.S. soybeans again in coming weeks despite the trade war between the two countries as other regions cannot supply enough soybeans to meet China’s needs, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.

In July, China imposed import tariffs on a list of U.S. goods, including soybeans, as part of the trade dispute with the United States. China is the world’s largest soybean importer and has been seeking alternative supplies, especially in South America, where supplies available for export are down.

“China has to resume purchases of U.S. soybeans,” Oil World said in its latest newsletter. “The South American supply shortage will make it necessary for China, in our opinion, to import 15 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans in October 2018/March 2019, even if the current trade war is not resolved.”

Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans could re-start “in coming weeks,” Oil World added.

Soybeans, crushed to make cooking oil and the protein-rich animal feed ingredient soymeal, were the biggest U.S. agriculture export to China last year at a value of $12.3 billion, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.  (read more)

♦The 800lb Panda in the room is that China is arguably the least balanced economy in the modern world. Hence, China has to take extraordinary measures to secure their supply chain. This economic dependency is also why China has recently spent so much on military expansion etc., they must protect their vulnerable interests.

Everything important to the Chinese Economy surrounds their critical need to secure a strong global supply chain of raw material to import, and leveraged trade agreements for export.  China’s economy is deep (manufacturing), but China’s economy is also narrow.

This is why China has now positioned their economic system as dependent on them being an economic bully. They must retain their supply chain: import raw materials – export finished goods, at all costs.

This inherent economic structure is a weakness China must continually address through policies toward other nations. Hence, “One-Belt / One-Road” is essentially their ‘bully plan’ to ensure their supply chain and long-term economic viability.

This economic structure, and the reality of China as a dependent economic model, also puts China at risk from the effects of global economic contraction. But more importantly it puts them at risk from President Trump’s strategic use of geopolitical economic leverage to weaken their economy.

When you plant your trees in another man’s orchard, don’t be surprised when you end up paying for your own apples!

Aug 7 2018

German Automaker Daimler Halts Deal With Iran Following U.S. Sanctions…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on August 7, 2018 by

While European countries criticized the move by Trump to exit the Iran deal, the challenge for their domestic businesses is to weigh the potential loss of American business against deals with Iran that are minuscule by comparison.

U.S. Ambassador Richard Grenell has been meeting with numerous CEO’s within Germany to inform them:  “either do business with Iran or the U.S., but not both.”

(Bloomberg) — U.S. President Donald Trump’s desire to isolate the Iranian economy seems to be working.

Within hours of Washington unveiling its first round of sanctions, German carmaker Daimler AG froze a plan to make Mercedes Benz trucks in Iran. That’s even after the European Union tried to salvage the Iran nuclear deal by pledging to protect firms from Trump’s assault.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if more companies were to follow Daimler out of Iran,” said Frank Biller, a automobile analyst based Stuttgart, Germany for Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg. “With the political situation right now, I’m sure a lot of companies are at least thinking about suspending their activities.”  (more)

.

.

Aug 7 2018

A Discussion With National Economic Council Chairman Larry Kudlow: “I’m having so much fun with Trump”….


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on August 7, 2018 by

The Chairman of the National Economic Council, Larry Kudlow, gives an extensive interview to C-SPAN discussing his life, his career and his role in the White House.

Those who have followed the granular details of the how President Trump put together his team -to carry out decades-long discussed policy- will find this interview interesting. Kudlow has evolved in the past year from a MAGAnomic supporter to a MAGAnomic advocate.

Aug 7 2018

California tackles THE BIG ISSUES


Published on Aug 5, 2018

The electrical grid is inadequate. The roads are third-world. Public sector unions have bankrupted what was once the richest state in the nation. Thank God Cali has got its priorities straight
Aug 7 2018

Is SO2 the Real Threat – not CO2?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Nature

Re-Posted Aug 7, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

It has snowed in Alberta, Canada on August 1st in the dead of summer. Such strange events like this have not been common. Europe is burning from heat when buildings do not even have air conditioning because they never needed it. The concern that we are headed into a volcanic weather event really needs our attention. Volcanos emit C02, but they are a major source of something far worse – SO2. We have all heard of the London Fog. However, in 1952, some 4,000 people in Britain died from breathing in the fog.

The London Fog of 1952 resulted from burning coal excessively because it was a bitterly cold winter. This produced sulfur dioxide in the lower atmosphere, which may have reached 7 times normal levels. This became the perfect storm. The air was stagnant and there no real wind. This combined with high humidity to create a very dense fog. Once the sulfur dioxide was trapped by the fog combining with the high humidity of water vapor, this deadly combination produced sulfuric acid, which many call today acid rain. Despite all the claims of CO2, it is really SO2 that can become lethal.

We have learned about SO2 and have been reducing human emissions since the London Fog of 1952. Despite the constant focus of cars and CO2, it is Power plants and motor vehicles that burn sulfur-containing fuels, especially diesel, that create SO2. It is the Sulfur dioxide that can react in the atmosphere to form fine particles of acrid rain that pose the largest health risks to the atmosphere. CO2 does not have the same effect. This is what the major movement has been for clean air – reducing SO2.

Volcanos emit a lot of Sulfur dioxide (SO2) which smells like rotten eggs. Humans also contribute by burning coal and other fossil fuels which are the largest source of sulfur dioxide from human activities. However, volcanoes and forest fires are THE major natural contributors. What is important to understand is that sulfur dioxide is a pollutant that does impact the climate. Once SO2 is in the atmosphere, it can easily form sulfate ions. These are negatively charged particles made of up of sulfur and oxygen atoms. Since they are negatively charged, sulfate ions combine with water vapor in the atmosphere and then form small droplets of sulfuric acid (H2SO4). You may hear of this as acid rain. CO2 does not act in this manner.

When a volcano erupts. we then see huge amounts of sulfur dioxide are released into the stratosphere which will then convert to sulfates. There is a qualification needed here because sulfates formed at lower altitudes are removed from the atmosphere in just a few weeks through settling and precipitation. However, the SO2 emission from volcanos reach the upper bounds of the atmosphere and create aerosols that are mainly tiny droplets of sulfuric acid that then stay in the atmosphere for about two years. These SO2 droplets reflect incoming solar radiation back into space yet absorb both incoming solar radiation and outgoing infrared radiation. The net result, is simply that SO2 reduces the amount of energy reaching the lower atmosphere and Earth’s surface. Hence, we get global cooling of the lower atmosphere and Earth’s surface.

Consequently, it is the volcanic eruptions are of considerable impact on global climate and are a proven fact rather than theory as is the case with CO2. Following the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, a cooling trend lasted through 1993. This was attributed to the sulfuric acid aerosols that persisted in the stratosphere. Historically, there was a global cooling which followed the 1883 eruption of Krakatoa. The worst such event was the “Year without a summer” which followed the eruption of Tambora in 1815.

The other school of thought has been where many scientists believe that the continuous emission of sulfates would counter any greenhouse gas theory of CO2. As volcanos tend to erupt when the energy output of the sun declines as has been taking place since 2015, we are experiencing uneven concentrations of sulfates around the world. This may be a major issue if turning places that are normally warm to cold and cold to warm. The problem with SO2 is that it remains in the atmosphere much longer and hence the continued trend of erupting volcanos can seriously alter the climate for even more than a decade ahead.