TimcastIRL Published Originally on Rumble on November 24, 2022
Twitter Alternative BACKFIRES On Woke, Leftists Start Getting Banned For Being Whiny Babies
Twitter Alternative BACKFIRES On Woke, Leftists Start Getting Banned For Being Whiny Babies
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Housing Sales to Institutional Investors Dropped 30% in Third Quarter
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on November 24, 2022 | sundance
There is a significant lag in all data within the housing market. That said, the third quarter (July, Aug, Sept) data reflects a significant drop in institutional investment within the housing market.
If you look closely at the timing (keep in mind the data reporting lag) what you will notice is that financial institutions began a big surge in purchasing hard assets, specifically real estate, as soon as Joe Biden took office (Jan ’21), and the economic policy became evident. Intangible financial instruments became an immediate risk as the professional financial control groups recognized energy policy would drive inflation (supply side) and devalued money would fuel it (demand side).
As an offset to predictable inflationary policy (the insiders’ game), institutional money (Blackrock, Vanguard etc) was moved into hard assets with tangible value. This shift in asset allocation, institutional sales, helped fuel a false surge in home prices and their valuations. CTH was writing about this in 2021, and sounding alarms as it took place. 25% of all real estate purchases were being made by institutional investors.
The dynamic was predictable. The Biden administration economic policy, energy policy and monetary policy, was going to cause massive inflation. CTH was shouting about it in early 2021 and warning everyone to prepare for waves of price increases that would naturally surface first on high-turn consumable goods, and then embed into longer-term durable goods.
Despite claims to the contrary, this 2021 inflationary explosion had nothing to do with the pandemic or supply chain shortages. It is entirely self-created by western governmental policy; the collective ‘Build Back Better’ agenda. You can see now from the background moves within the financial sectors, they too knew the reality and their money shifts reflected that despite their ‘transitory’ pretending they were mitigating their own exposure.
We the People were yet again going to be victims of specifically intended monetary, regulatory, energy and economic policy.
The investment class rulers of the WEF assembly shifted assets to avoid the pain that we would feel. We “would own nothing and be happy,” and their shifts would position them to own everything and be in control.
Overall govt spending and regulatory controls drove inflation for these past two years. The ‘demand side’ was blamed, despite the lack of demand. I will be proven right when history is concluded with this. Interest rates were raised by central banks in an effort to support the policies that are driving ‘supply side’ inflation, not demand side.
Energy policy was/is crushing the consumer by driving up the cost of all goods and services. To support the overall goal of changing global energy resource and development (a false and controlled global operation), central banks raised interest rates. Various western economies, including our own, have been pushed deeper into a state of contraction by central banks crushing consumer demand, and eliminating investment via increased borrowing costs.
In short, the goal was/is to lower energy consumption by shrinking the economic activity. This, according to the BBB plan, was needed at the same time as energy development was reduced. These economic outcomes are not organic, they are all being controlled by collective western government agreement.
Within this control dynamic, there was always going to be a point where the reaction of the people to their economic reality means the financial control elements need to shift direction. They will always maximize profit and minimized risk, while knowing what the larger objective remains.
Just like every other durable good, housing demand contracts as prices and costs become unaffordable. The loss of equity within your home is damaging to your own value or ability to borrow against it. From the perspective of an institutional asset, that same equity drop is an investment loss. Thus, just as a consumer would exit the housing market, so too will institutional investment groups now control the slow dumping of the asset to remove the equity they pumped into it.
Much of the investment housing will be retained as rental housing, with the monthly rents being part of the returns on the investments. However, as this dynamic unfolds further purchases of houses stop, because the asset overall is declining in value.
(Via Wall Street Journal) – Investor buying of homes tumbled 30% in the third quarter, a sign that the rise in borrowing rates and high home prices that pushed traditional buyers to the sidelines are causing these firms to pull back, too.
Companies bought around 66,000 homes in the 40 markets tracked by real-estate brokerage Redfin during the third quarter, compared with 94,000 homes during the same quarter a year ago. The percentage decline in investor purchases was the largest in a quarter since the subprime crisis, save for the second quarter of 2020 when the pandemic shut down most home buying.
The investor pullback represents a turnaround from months ago when their purchases were still rising fast. These firms bought homes in record numbers last year and earlier this year, helping to supercharge the housing market.
Now, investors are reducing their buying activity in line with the decline in overall home sales, which have slumped with mortgage rates rising fast. (more)
At a macro level, if you bought a home in the last 18 months, or refinanced your home to pull out equity, you still have significant downside exposure. Home prices will continue dropping until they plateau on the downside at the price that existed in roughly June of 2021.
The drop in value is directly related to the regional purchases by the institutions. In areas where higher percentages of overall home sales were made by institutional investors, the subsequent drop in value will be larger (see chart above). In areas where actual people purchased homes to live in, the drop in value will be less significant.
I keep getting this buying question, so with the above in mind I will answer it in the most brutally honest way I can present…..
At a macro level, if you are going to purchase a home on this downslope, look at the historic valuation of that property (or a comparable property) in/around approximately the spring of 2021. Start there, and put your offer in that vicinity, then hold firm without any emotional attachment to it. Do not purchase another groups loss.
Thankful for Sunlight
Posted from the conservative tree house on November 24, 2022 | sundance
As I have said: “the primary contest in 2024 is going to be epic, because this time the MAGA scruffnecks will, for the first time in years, clearly see who the enemy within the Republican ranks really are. This makes them so much easier to defeat, and also explains why the corporate and billionaire professional managers within the Club are desperate to keep stuff hidden.”
The recent statements against MAGA by former House Speaker Paul Ryan and former Attorney General Bill Barr, are examples of this increased sunlight. Do not be discouraged by their attacks, we need this clarity. Each moment the corrupt step forward, is a moment to smile.
[Via Dutchman] – I see all SORTS of encouraging news, and Sundance declaring “The Big Ugly” outright WAR between Mainstreet vs Wallstreet is on, is the best news, EVAH. I have been spoiling for this fight, for YEARS.
The Wall Street group are like stealth bombers; their strength is in their stealth; take that AWAY, and they are just another airplane, as vulnerable to AA fire as any other. Actually, MORE vulnerable, because they are designed and pilots are trained with the assumption of having stealth, and so they are terrible at evasive maneuvers.
EVERY battle in which MAGA forces RINO to expose themselves and their true nature, is a victory for US, even if we take casualties.
So, J6 a victory for US, as RINOS said, “let em rot in jail!”
2022 midterms, a victory for us as McCarthy were exposed, donating to MAGA opponents.
Cheer up, we WILL take more casualties, but poor mitch is BUCK NAKED, as are the rest of the effete elites.
The Day the Narratives Collapsed | Hoffman, Harmeet, Bovard, Walker, ALX, Sav| The Charlie Kirk Show
The Charlie Kirk Show Published originally on Rumble on November 23, 2022
All eyes remain fixed on Arizona and we kick off the show with Jake Hoffman, senator-elect and chair of the AZ Freedom Caucus followed by Lake Campaign lawyer, Harmeet Dhillon. Next up we have Rachel Bovard on her NYT column challenging the Trump doomers and Herschel Walker lays out the stakes in Georgia’s Senate runoff. Finally, ALX and Savanah Hernandez talk Twitter and Libby Emmons does a deep dive into just how extensive the FTX fraud and Democrat bribery goes. The Charlie Kirk Show is LIVE on Salem Radio stations across the country and simulcasting on Real America’s Voice.
Famous Dem’s Kid Gets Red-Pilled, Are the Youth Waking Up? | Scott Walker | POLITICS | Rubin Report
The Rubin Report Published originally on Rumble on November 20, 2022
Dave Rubin of “The Rubin Report” talks to former Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker about his reaction to the midterm elections; why Republicans need to do better than just say they don’t like Joe Biden; how Ohio became a red state while Michigan became a blue state; how the abuse of emergency powers during the COVID pandemic exposed who leaders really were; how the real divide is between white collar workers, who had the luxury of remote work, and blue collar workers who didn’t; how even young children are being subjected to communist indoctrination in schools; why YAF is suing Clovis Community College; how Ben Shapiro is able to spread his message to the young, despite liberal colleges not letting him speak; how a Trump 2024 campaign could affect a Ron DeSantis 2024 presidential run; why school choice is vital to protecting the young from indoctrination in school; how charter schools and school vouchers can help people escape a horrible public school education; why the Young America’s Foundation focuses more on the students at liberal colleges; how prominent Democrat Susan Rice ended up with a redpilled son; the growing divide between urban and suburban voters; and much more.
Murkowski Wins Alaska Senate Race with Support from Democrats
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on November 23, 2022 | Sundance
As expected, the insufferable Lisa Murkowski has won reelection in Alaska despite losing the first-round republican vote.
As a result of neither Murkowski or Tshibaka winning 50% in the first round, the ranking system then adds the second choice of all voters. Democrat voters chose Murkowski as their second choice providing her the win in the ranked choice voting system.
JUNEAU, Alaska (AP) — Alaska Republican U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski has won reelection, defeating Donald Trump-endorsed GOP rival Kelly Tshibaka.
Murkowski beat Tshibaka in the Nov. 8 ranked choice election. The results were announced Wednesday, when elections officials tabulated the ranked choice results after neither candidate won more than 50% of first-choice votes. Murkowski wound up with 54% of the vote after ranked choice voting, picking up a majority of the votes cast for Democrat Pat Chesbro after she was eliminated.
“I am honored that Alaskans — of all regions, backgrounds and party affiliations — have once again granted me their confidence to continue working with them and on their behalf in the U.S. Senate,” Murkowski said in a statement. “I look forward to continuing the important work ahead of us.”
Tshibaka in a statement posted on her website congratulated Murkowski but took fault with ranked choice voting.
“The new election system has been frustrating to many Alaskans, because it was indisputably designed as an incumbent-protection program, and it clearly worked as intended,” she said. (read more)
Kari Lake Provides Update on Status of Arizona “Botched Election” Lawsuits
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on November 23, 2022 | Sundance
Arizona Governor candidate Kari Lake appears with Steve Bannon to discuss the status of her campaign lawsuits against Maricopa County officials in advance of a rush to certify the election. {Direct Rumble Link} – WATCH:
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Comrade Citizens, Dear Leader Sends Instructions for Thanksgiving
Posted originally on the conservative treehouse on November 23, 2022 | Sundance
Comrades, Dear Leader wants to help you with correct thoughts this Thanksgiving.
The administration cares about you. With magnanimous intent Dear Leader provides the correct guidance for your discussions. Please follow the transcript as outlined for your family gathering this year. All the best comrade citizens will be reciting it. [Source]
Good citizenship begins at the family table by honoring Dear Leader’s accomplishments.
Dear Leader provides appropriate instructions for the way all good citizens should thank him. It is no longer your burden to say, “this holiday we celebrate and are thankful for friends and family.” Instead, Dear Leader is providing thoughtful guidance, so you do not have to worry about appropriate thinking.
Horrible News – United Furniture (Lane Brand) Lays Off 2,700 Workers Immediately Via Text Message
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on November 23, 2022 | Sundance
This is terrible news for many blue-collar families in Mississippi and North Carolina. Last night, United Furniture, makers of Lane brand, fired all of their manufacturing employees and transportation workers effective immediately.
Fortunately, other manufacturers are quickly messaging the displaced workers with job offers {link}, but the overall message from the collapsed company is alarming.
Read the email letter from today that accompanied the late-night notification:
(Via Furniture Today) – “At the instruction of the Board of Directors of United Furniture Industries, Inc., and all subsidiaries (the “Company”), we regret to inform you that due to unforeseen business circumstances the Company has been forced to make the difficult decision to terminate the employment of all its employees, effective immediately, on November 21, 2022, with the exception of over-the-road drivers that are out on delivery. Your layoff from the Company is expected to be permanent and all benefits will be terminated immediately without provision of COBRA.
Over-the-road drivers that are out on delivery will be paid for the balance of the week. Whether or not you have completed your delivery, please immediately return equipment, inventory, and delivery documents for those deliveries that have been completed to one of the following locations: Winston-Salem, N.C., Verona, Miss., or Victorville, Calif. location. To be clear, do not complete any additional deliveries.
We regret that this difficult and unexpected situation has made this necessary. Additional information will be provided shortly.
Thank you for your service and dedication.
UFI/Lane Corporate Communications” (link)
A few quick points.
First, everyone who is not pretending is well aware the U.S. durable good economy is in a severe state of contraction. This manufacturing announcement is deeply troubling and sad, but unfortunately not unexpected – all things considered.
Second, while understanding that an unexpected loss in operational funding is usually what leads to these “immediate” types of total operational collapse, most often the result of a lender backing away from a desperately needed continuation loan, the callousness of the job loss communication reflects disconnected corporate management.
Third, while the economic framework would preclude it happening on his watch, United Furniture Industries is damn lucky President Donald Trump is not in office right now or there would likely be an eviscerating response to this announcement.
I have never met President Trump, but I have watched closely enough to accept that we are tuned to the same business frequency. This is not the way an American company, or any company for that matter, should conduct itself during crisis.
My prayers are for those families who woke up this morning with the financial rug pulled out from under them.
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Father of mercy and comfort wrap Your loving arms around the families who received notifications of job losses today. Trepidation and financial fear can lead to horrible family stress. Lord God and provider of all security, within Your Word You have said for us to cry out in Your name, and we can receive.
For I know the plans I have for you,” declares the Lord, “plans to prosper you and not to harm you, plans to give you hope and a future;” (Jeremiah 29:11)
And so, I am asking for Your peace and reassurance to lay upon the troubled families and workers. I pray today knowing there but for Your grace we too may find ourselves.
Father, of love and support send Your spirit of strength into the hearts of those who received this employment news. Guide them closer to You and toward financial security in every tomorrow. In Jesus’ powerful name, I believe and pray.
Amen
Reminder, Watch Inside RNC Club Rule Changes and 2024 Moves Next Month
Posted originally on the conservative house on November 23, 2022 | Sundance
In the background of the republican dynamic, CTH has been reminding everyone about the nature of the Republican National Committee (RNC) and Democrat National Committee (DNC) being private clubs, private corporations, unaffiliated with government. Most casual voters do not understand what this key and important distinction means within U.S. elections.
There are two private corporations representing Republicans and Democrats; they are most commonly referred to as political parties. There is no basis for the existence of private political parties in the United States constitution. Both parties’ function from a position as private interests outside the framework of government.
What we commonly refer to as ‘politicians’ are selected representatives to the government from each of the corporations. What we commonly refer to as ‘primary elections’ are suggestions to each of the corporations from citizens expressing their preference for the representative. The corporation can individually choose to accept or decline the suggestion from the voters, and the only thing that binds the corporation to follow the suggestion are the corporate rules.
The corporation of the RNC and DNC exist to serve their own interests. Politics is the RNC and DNC business; however, the income stream -the financial aspects to the business- is what holds influence over the corporate priority. Ideology is part of the equation, but control of the business and generating revenue is the main function of the corporation. Unfortunately, in the reality of the business model, election outcomes are downstream from those two priorities.
It is with this corporate baseline in mind that all ‘primary election’ political analysis should take place. The economics of the thing is what Republican officers in the RNC emphasize. Without money, the corporate mission doesn’t operate. Without money the RNC members -essentially board members- do not function, hold meetings, assemble, or participate in the organization. Therefore, from the standpoint of the corporation, the business of politics (inputs) drives the activity, not election results (outputs).
This facet to U.S. politics is rarely discussed because the corporations and the people who run them do not want this process emphasized. However, if voters do not comprehend this dynamic, they can fall victim to the fallacy of false representative choice.
The corporation is made up of members. The members make the rules. The members have preferences and ideological outlooks about the objective of the corporation as part of their position within it. Inside this dynamic is where you see the changing of rules to benefit the preferences of the members; ultimately influencing outcomes.
Unlike most political sites, CTH watches this inside club dynamic closely because ultimately it explains a lot of ‘consequences’ that we see later discussed. It is easier to just sit back and discuss the consequences than it is to watch the officials inside the club make rule changes proactively. However, it is by watching the rule changes that we can see the roadmaps of influence within game as played by both RNC and DNC corporations.
Any political commentary that does not take this private club dynamic into consideration, and/or explain the consequences from decisions within the club, is not serving the interests of the American electorate.
The winter meeting of the RNC is taking place January 25-27th, in Dana Point California at the Waldorf Astoria – Monarch Beach Resort. There are 168 members who will be in attendance (3 from every state) along with various RNC and national republican leadership.
This RNC corporate meeting, and the votes by the members, will determine the Republican Club rules for the 2024 election cycle. Rules on primary dates, sequence, apportionment of delegates, distribution of delegates, state sequencing, qualifications and much more will be decided.
Rules that govern the candidates and campaigns of those who choose to run on the corporate identity of “Republican” will also be determined. Rules on financial agreements, expectations for data sharing, fundraising, contribution expectations (both directions) and much more will be determined.
It is inside this dynamic where one of the key club control battles is likely to take place. It’s mostly boring and seemingly parliamentary stuff {Example Here}, but it has massive ramifications.
Some RNC members support MAGA, some do not. Some RNC members support the Wall Street alignment, some do not. Some members support the populist movement, others do not. Some RNC members support a big tent approach to a working-class coalition, other RNC members regard the working-class as beneath their representative interests. The key point is that it’s a private club making these decisions.
The majority decision from within the club membership vote will determine each outcome(s). Donald Trump may have earned 100 million voters and supporters, but only 168 unelected members and party officials will determine what that means to their corporate agenda.
There is no guarantee the America-First agenda of Donald Trump is in alignment with the 2023 priorities of the club. Factually, all recent suggestions from the club control officers, the billionaire the Wall Street donors like Ken Griffin, all suggest the removal of Trump and the MAGA agenda from association with the RNC club should be the priority of the assembly. The dynamic of financial influence, income to the corporation, changes the entire mechanism of the outcome.
As noted by ‘Niagara Frontier‘: “I’m watching for last-minute RNC rule changes for the national primaries and the selection of convention delegates. If we start hearing anybody, anywhere float a proposal in favor of Republican super delegates for the national convention, it’s total war.”
Niagara is absolutely correct. The internal battle deep inside the club, fraught with influence, power dynamics and cliques positioning for control, is the part of the political dynamic that everyone should be watching closely.
We will be….
Centinel2012 