Global Recession, South Korea Manufacturing Output Shrinks in July, First Time in Two Years


Posted originally on the conservative house on August 1, 2022 | Sundance

We are seeing the cascading impacts of the energy-driven inflation starting to ripple throughout the globe, specifically worsening economies who are dependent on the export of non-essential durable goods.  South Korea manufacturing is the latest example.

The first quarter of 2022 started with a drop in U.S. consumer spending on non-essential durable goods like electronics.  The net result of contracted consumer spending was a 1.6% negative GDP.

Inventories of goods started to build and by April/May of 2022 the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed negative inflation in those sectors as discounts to move inventory were offered.

In June major manufacturer Samsung, headquartered in South Korea, announced they had told suppliers to stop sending component manufacturing parts for finished goods. (link)

By the end of July, the second quarter GDP in the U.S. again showed a contraction of 0.9%. Energy inflation was now creating a consumer spending recession, demand for non-essential goods dropped fast over the first half of the year.

Today, South Korea announces July manufacturing output contracted for the first time in two years, matching the prior announcement by Samsung:

SEOUL, Aug 1 (Reuters) – South Korea’s factory activity shrank in July for the first time in nearly two years, as output and new orders weakened amid continued inflation and supply chain woes, a private-sector survey showed on Monday.

The S&P Global purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to a seasonally-adjusted 49.8 in July from 51.3 in June, falling below 50 for the first time since September 2020. The 50-mark separates expansion from contraction in factory activity from a previous month.

Output fell for a fourth straight month and by the sharpest rate since October 2021, as new orders decreased for the first time in 22 months and those from overseas for the fifth month in a row. (read more)

All economies that are dependent on the manufacturing and export of durable goods are likely now seeing reduced factory outputs as fewer customers exist to purchase the final product.  This will lead to a predictable rise in unemployment amid those same nations.

This situation is the reason why the Bank of Japan did not raise their central bank interest rates.  They are attempting to offset the drop in global economic activity by keeping their currency value low as compared to the rest of the western countries.  This will help move their exported goods at a discount.

Inside countries with large imports, the definition of “non-essential” purchases within each household now starts to shift. Upgrading electronics, jewelry purchasing, and other non-essential goods become the first to feel the impact.  That contraction is then followed by appliances, furniture, clothing and eventually vehicles and high-cost durable goods.

As less and less disposable income is available, consumer spending gets increasingly prioritized.  The service sector is likely starting to feel the consumer belt tightening, particularly those consumer goods and services that are dependent on middle class families.

Inflation in general is a corrosive issue that eats away at the ability of consumers to purchase products and services.  Energy inflation is particularly damaging as it hits every sector of the economy with higher supply-side costs.  Food prices, fuel, transportation costs, electricity rates etc. take a larger portion of the paycheck, leaving less room (if any) for non-essential purchases.

A shrinking global economy is the outcome of an intentionally managed decline to support the Build Back Better, climate change, agenda.

Comment on Woke


Armstrong Economics Blog/Human Rights Re-Posted Jul 29, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

00:22

COMMENT: I went to sign up for a dating site. It asks only if you are interested in men or women. I am really confused since we do not know what a woman is anymore. I think it needs to be more clearly defined.

(1) Someone who identifies as a birthing person

(2) Someone who has been transformed into a birthing person for appearance’s sake

(2) Someone who has been transformed into a birthing person who can give birth

(4) Someone who is a natural birthing person

(5) Someone who is a retired natural birthing person

(6) Someone who is non-binary and identifies as whatever depending on the moment

RP

REPLY: My question is after Harris identifies as a woman, which is now a debatable term, she then states what she is wearing. Maybe I’m too old. But I do not understand why someone would state what they are wearing unless they are saying they are not wearing a traditional dress. Why stop there? Should we now identify the type of underwear she is wearing? I have never gone to a meeting, ever, where you stated what you were wearing. Never in all my meetings with Maggie did she ever once state her gender.

You could tell with COVID their mental state depending if they wore a mask and demanded yours had to be over your nose. But this is far beyond that. This has all gone insane.

Secretary Yellen Reminds Good Citizens Their “Household Finances are Strong”, We are Experiencing Abundance and Not Being Happy is Disinformation


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 28, 2022 | Sundance

July 28, 2022 | Sundance | 134 Comments

Comrades, Secretary Janet Yellen reminds everyone how important it is to smile and support the policies of Dear Leader as they manage our overwhelming happiness through this period of exceptionally wonderful abundance.

The secretary reminds us that our “household finances are strong” and we have good employment to keep ourselves industrious and valuable on behalf of the state.  WATCH:

The beet and potato harvest will provide soup for everyone, but only if we continue to do our best.  All of the best comrade citizens are cheerful and happy.

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“I’m told that’s what it looks like… but we just don’t see it”…

Straight Economic Data from Bartiromo


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 28, 2022 | Sundance

There is less pretending in this segment, but the core of intent is still missing.   As soon as Ms. Bartiromo can admit the monetary policy is specifically designed to create lower economic activity, she will be able to reconcile the policy conflicts which she still views as hypocrisies.

While not outlining the motive, in the segment beginning at 1:07 Ms Bartiromo does a good job outlining the current state of the economy. WATCH:

Comrades, prior to the Joe Biden economy the average American worker was earning 29 onions per hour.  After, the Biden economic policies were put into place, the average American worker is now earning 11 onions per hour.

Facing Public Backlash Activist Manhattan DA Drops Murder Charges Against Bodega Owner Who Was Acting in Self Defense


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 19, 2022

No doubt it was only the public pressure and ridicule against this activist Manhattan District Attorney that caused him to reverse course.

Facing intense public scrutiny for his ideological efforts, Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg has dropped charges against the 61-year-old Latino bodega owner who defended himself against a violent attack by the black boyfriend of an angry customer.

The entire episode, including the ridiculous charges against Jose Alba, was fraught with racist undertones from the district attorney’s office.

NEW YORK – After intense backlash from local bodega workers and city tabloids, Manhattan district attorney Alvin Bragg on Tuesday dropped all charges against bodega clerk Jose Alba, who was allegedly acting in self-defense when he fatally stabbed a man who was attacking him.

The liberal DA’s decision comes after weeks of criticism of Bragg’s decision to send the 61-year-old to Riker’s Island and charge him with second-degree murder in the death of 35-year-old Austin Simon. Bragg first requested Alba’s bail be set at $500,000 before it was lowered to $50,000 in response to criticism from the community. He was later released on a $5,000 bail bond.

Video obtained by the New York Post seems to show Simon advancing on Alba at the bodega where Alba works and violently shoving him against a wall after his girlfriend’s credit card was rejected while trying to buy a bag of chips. Alba could be heard in the video trying to diffuse the situation as Simon walked behind the counter, saying, “Papa, I don’t want a problem, papa.”

While Alba initially tried to walk away from Simon after being shoved, video shows, a struggle between the two men ensued and Alba stabbed Simon repeatedly. The video seems to show Simon’s girlfriend pulling a knife from her purse and attempting to grab Alba’s arm as he stabbed her boyfriend. She then stabbed Alba.

Bragg’s office said Tuesday that “a homicide case against Alba could not be proven at trial beyond a reasonable doubt” after further investigation. (read more)

Starbucks Flees Crime-Ridden Cities


Armstrong Economics Blog/USA Current Events Re-Posted Jul 18, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

People are less likely to splurge for their daily morning $6 coffee amid a looming recession, and Starbucks stock is down over 30% this year. However, another main problem facing Starbucks stores is crime. CEO Howard Schultz announced that the company is closing 16 stores with “many more” closures to come. While potential union busting cannot be counted out as a reason for store closures, there is no denying that crime is running rampant in America right now.

“It has shocked me that one of the primary concerns that our retail partners have is their own personal safety,” Schultz said in a leaked video. “America has become unsafe.” It is of no surprise that the store closures are occurring in Democratic cities such as Philadelphia, Portland, Seattle, Los Angeles, West Hollywood, and Washington, D.C. The coffee giant is also considering banning the public from using its restrooms as safety issues grow. Employees are being trained on how to deescalate situations and, if needed, how to deal with an active shooter in the store.

In fact, stores are closing throughout the aforementioned cities as crime cannot be contained. Manzoor Chughtai, the president of the Franchise Owners Association of Philadelphia, said, “Right now we have a lot of problems with the city of Philadelphia. We are closing left and right. Robbers are coming in, they’re just robbing the place left and right.” Manzoor said that nobody wants to take over these stores as it has become very dangerous even to work in these areas. He estimates that the city has lost up to 20 stores already but will likely lose more solely due to crime.

Los Angeles has been forced to close countless stores after the Californian pro-crime government banned police from arresting shoplifters. I reported in April that the California Retailers Association (CRA) reported that San Francisco and Oakland alone lost $3.6 billion annually due to retail crime. As the economy continually turns down, we can expect crime to move in the opposite direction.

Hero Who Stopped Indiana Mall Shooter Identified as 22-Year-Old Eli Dicken, Trained in Firearm Use by his Grandfather


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 18, 2022 | Sundance 

A strong testimonial in favor of concealed carry, self-defense and situational awareness.

A mass shooter named Douglas Sapirman opened fire at the Greenwood Park Mall in Greenwood, Indiana, shooting three people before he was stopped by a 22-year-old who reacted in seconds after the shooting started.

22-year-old Elisjsha Dicken (pictured left) told his girlfriend to get under a table at the mall food court, then engaged the gunman using his pistol.  Dicken fired ten shots, killing the gunman who was armed with a long rifle as he attempted to retreat.   Police are hailing young Mr. Dicken as a hero who likely saved the lives of many.

INDIANA – […] Elisjsha Dicken, an armed bystander, fired on Sapirman. Dicken fired 10 rounds hitting Sapirman as Sapirman tried to retreat into the bathroom but collapsed and died.

Dicken had no police training or military background, according to police. He was carrying under the new “Constitutional Carry” law and did not have a permit. Police said Dicken learned to shoot from his grandfather and that he had no military or police training.

“His actions were nothing short of heroic. He engaged the gunman from quite a distance with a handgun. Was very proficient in that, was tactically sound and as he moved to close in on the suspect, he was also motioning for people to exit behind him,” Ison said about Dicken’s actions. “Many people would have died last night if not for a responsible armed citizen that took action very quickly within the first two minutes of this shooting.”

Dicken has not yet spoken with the media about the shooting. However, his lawyer Guy A. Relford released a statement on Monday that said Dicken is waiting to speak about the shooting to respect the lives lost and the police’s investigation.

The full statement can be read here:

I am proud to serve as Eli Dicken’s attorney and spokesperson. He is a true American hero who saved countless lives during a horrific event that could have been so much worse if not for Eli’s courage, preparedness and willingness to protect others. Because we want to respect the ongoing criminal investigation by the Greenwood Police Department and take time to honor the three innocent lives lost, we won’t be making any substantive comments on Sunday’s events until after the authorities’ investigation is closed.  In the interim, we ask that you respect the privacy of Eli and his family.”  (read more)

A brave young man. Well done Mr. Dicken. Well done.

Police Press Conference:

Former Obama Economic Advisor Says Best Way to Deal with Inflation is to Raise Taxes and Plunge Main Street into a Recession


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 17, 2022 | Sundance 

Jason Furman is the former Chairman of the National Economic Council under Barack Obama; he is currently a professor at Harvard teaching economics.   If you ever wondered why the economy under Obama included the weakest economic recovery in history, the advice of Furman might explain it.

In an interview with CBS this morning, Jason Furman says the best way to get inflation under control is to raise taxes and stop people from spending money.  This approach will impact the demand side of the economy and as a result, with no one purchasing stuff, it will lower prices.   Seriously, no joke, he said this. WATCH:

Jason Furm: …”Congress should be trying to do their part and helping out if they can cut the deficit, including raising taxes on high income households, that would reduce a bit of spending in the economy, it would cool the economy down a little bit, and actually take some pressure off the Fed.”…

Create a deeper recession to control inflation, brilliant!

Like I have been pointing out for months, these ideologues believe inflation is being driven by the demand side, by consumers purchasing too much.  They pretend not to know it is the supply-side issue of energy policy that is driving the CORE inflation they seek to reduce.

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Harvard Economics Professor Jason Furman reminds me of this:

Bank of Canada Raises Interest Rates 1 Percent Claiming Excess Demand in Economy is Driving Inflation


Posted originally on the Conservative tree House on July 13, 2022 | Sundance

Folks, the Build Back Better western alliance are fully vested in the pretending game.  It is just one big insufferable game of pretending, and the citizens of the western government powers, You and Me, are the victims.

Seriously, it’s stunning, yet oddly not surprising, that the same multinational forces who created the global inflation crisis as a result of following the World Economic Forum spending agenda, are now claiming the global economy is simply too hot, too successful, there is just too much demand, and that justifies their raising of interest rates:

OTTAWA, July 13 (Reuters)– The Bank of Canada surprised on Wednesday with a full-percentage-point increase to its policy rate, a super-sized hike last seen in 1998, citing “higher and more persistent” inflation and the increased risk of those price gains becoming entrenched.

The central bank, in a regular rate decision, raised its policy rate to 2.5% from 1.5%, and said more hikes would be needed. The move was more forceful than the 75-basis point increase economists and money markets had forecast.

….”With the economy clearly in excess demand, inflation high and broadening, and more businesses and consumers expecting high inflation to persist for longer, the Governing Council decided to front-load the path to higher interest rates,” the bank said. [LINK]

This is the actual justification from the Bank of Canada.

Read it carefully: “With the economy clearly in excess demand.”

Yes folks, I have always said that in order to retain their ideological positions, the leftists in control of policy have to pretend not to know things.  That right there is the Bank of Canada pretending not to know the Canadian economy is contracting.  Exactly the same as Treasury Secretary Yellen and Fed Chairman Powell pretending not to know the U.S. economy is contracting.

Do you see what happened, and what they are doing?

The Build Back Better energy policy of the collective western governments’ is driving supply side inflation.  It’s the new climate change energy policy, all being implemented by the same institutional elements, that is creating the massive increases in overall prices.

It’s the energy policy driving inflation, NOT consumer DEMAND.

The western multinationals, government and multinational/central banks, all carry the same ideological mindset.  All of them are collectively supporting the Build Back Better agenda from execution of infrastructure shifts to their direct control over ESG investment in only “sustainable energy” projects.

The fascist assembly of western government and western banks working together to create this great international game of pretending. All of it so they do not have to admit their ideological climate agenda is destroying economies.   Thus, to keep up the pretense, they raise interest rates into a contracting economy.  This is why I keep saying the pretense is what’s going to end up starving people, creating desperation and ultimately killing people.

Energy demand is no different today than it was pre-pandemic 2018 and 2019.  It’s the energy supply, and all of the downstream industrial energy processes that are being blocked, that has created the supply-side issue.

The post-pandemic Build Back Better agenda has shifted the entire energy sector and created all of these inflationary outcomes.

The World Economic Forum, the Bank of Canada, central banks in Europe and Secretary Janet Yellen and Chairman Jerome Powell are all pretending not to know these issues are outcomes of energy policy.  The collective western nations all took the same path.  All of the outcomes are identical, and now all of their denials and pretenses are being maintained in a collective justification filled with bullshit.

June Inflation Jumps 1.3 Percent, Annual Inflation Rate Increases to 9.1 Percent


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 13, 2022 | Sundance

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has released the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) [DATA HERE] showing yet another “surprising” increase in overall inflation.  For the month of June overall inflation increased 1.3% bringing the annual rate of inflation to 9.1% as calculated.

Economists and financial pundits are “shocked”, “surprised” and the proverbial “unexpected” is running amok again amid the typeset.  The reality of Joe Biden energy policy being the origin of our current inflation crisis is being avoided at all costs by the pretenders.  The federal reserve raising interest rates can only impact the demand side, but it’s the supply side (total energy policy) creating the problem.  Table-A shows the overview.

(CNBC) – […] The consumer price index, a broad measure of everyday goods and services related to the cost of living, soared 9.1% from a year ago, above the 8.8% Dow Jones estimate. That marked the fastest pace for inflation going back to November 1981.

[…] “U.S. inflation is above 9%, but it is the breadth of the price pressures that is really concerning for the Federal Reserve.” said James Knightley, ING’s chief international economist. “With supply conditions showing little sign of improvement the onus is the on the Fed to hit the brakes via higher rates to allow demand to better match supply conditions. The recession threat is rising.” (read more)

If you dig into the details, the inflation picture shows just how deep the energy policy is hitting.  Everything is impacted by Joe Biden’s radical energy policy.  Table-1 breaks down the data a bit more specifically.  However, even this data is skewed by the BLS putting a weighting factor on the importance.

♦ The rate of annualized inflation for natural gas is now running at almost 100%.  Meaning if things continue, the current price will double again by this time next year.

♦ The rate of annualized inflation for gasoline is running at 134%.

♦ The annualized rate of energy inflation overall is running at 90%.

These are the results of the people behind Joe Biden implementing the Green New Deal program by executive fiat.

Also, keep in mind the current increases in farming costs at the field have yet to reach wholesale and retail.  The fertilizer, oil, diesel, packaging, transportation and energy costs at the field will not arrive to the fork until later this fall.  That is when food inflation will surpass energy inflation.

Current cattlemen and ranchers are finding it more cost-effective, due to drought and high feed costs, to take their cattle to slaughter.  There is a temporary drop in beef prices for the next several weeks before the supply roller coaster sets up a scenario for massive increases in beef costs this winter.  Consider buying and freezing now for use later this year and into the winter. Try to buy directly from cattle ranchers.

Later this year the next wave (#3) of food inflation will surpass the last two waves.  Things will get ugly because there are also predictably shortages of food coming.  Higher farm costs and global food supply shortages equals much, much higher U.S. prices.   Prepare.