First Quarter GDP +1.1% Reflects Military Spending on Ukraine War, and Drop in Domestic Investment Along with Inventories


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 27, 2023 | Sundance

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released their first quarter estimate of economic growth [DATA HERE] and the result of 1.1% growth shows how the U.S. economy has become dependent on government spending money we don’t have. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) calculation is a valuation of all goods and services created within the U.S. economy, minus the value of goods and services imported.

Keep in mind that all calculations are in dollar terms. Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) prices increased 4.2% in the first quarter after increasing 3.7% in the fourth quarter. Excluding food and energy, the PCE “core” price index increased 4.9% after increasing 4.4%.   Two-thirds of the increased spending on goods was driven by higher prices, only one third by consumers purchasing more stuff.

Looking at Table 2 (the percentage change by sector) the increase in prices provided 2.48% lift to the GDP but the actual purchasing of goods only delivered 1.45%.  Meanwhile the decline in inventories subtracted 2.26% from the GDP, a major factor, and domestic investment has dropped subtracting 2.34%.

Government expenditures (+0.81) drove more than 70% of the total GDP growth as national defense spending (Ukraine War) was a major federal component.  The local and state government spending increase was driven by higher wage rates.   Don’t forget there’s $2.2 trillion in Inflation Reduction Act (Green New Deal) spending that is also within the economy.

Overall, this is a dark picture.  Inflation is still raging. Inventories are dropping as consumer purchasing is squeezed, and replacements goods are not being manufactured. Companies are tightening their belts.  The federal government is spending to try and assist the economy, but the private sector is contracting economic activity.

When households evaluate their checkbooks, a Biden administration claim of a growing economy falls flat – because the only part of the economy that is growing is the part that fuels the energy and security needs of Europe.  Main Street USA is suffering through the massive inflation that Joe Biden has created, and purchases of anything other than necessities have come to a near halt.

REMINDER: Inflation was at 1.4% When Biden Took Office


Armstrong Economics Blog/Inflation Re-Posted Apr 27, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Inflation was only 1.4% when Biden took office. He began implementing policies on his first day that directly created the energy crisis in the US. He refused to reopen the economy under the pretense of COVID for as long as possible, disrupting the supply chain and damaging small businesses. Biden has created multi-trillion dollar spending programs that saddled the nation with more debt and increased price volatility. His team has been working to divide the people and create civil unrest. I could go on about his failures, but his worst move was involving America in the Russia-Ukraine war. Inflation has steadily risen to unsustainable levels nearly every month since Biden took office.

Biden’s team toys with the numbers to tout that inflation has gone down, but they are comparing the high and low both created under Biden. Wages cannot support the increase in costs and absolutely no one is better off under Biden. Considering the dire situation, it is infuriating that the US had a 1.4% inflation rate not long ago.

Inflation has soared by over 15% since Biden’s inauguration in January 2021. The “Presidential Inflation Rate,” (PIR) developed by the Winston Group, measures a president’s progress in handling inflation over time, from their inauguration month to the month of the most recent CPI report. As of March, inflation under Biden is 15%, which makes him the most inflationary president since Carter. Biden’s 24% “Presidential Inflation Rate” for rising electricity costs is higher than any of the previous seven presidents as it is now up 37.2%. The cost of food rose 18.3% under Biden, and eggs alone have soared by nearly 80%. Shelter costs are now at a 42-year high, and Biden’s PIR for rent has surpassed 13.5%.

Joe Biden takes no responsibility for the inflation caused by his policies and failures as a president. Inflation will continue to increase under Biden. He has absolutely no plans to address the issue, and the legislation he creates to address the problem only exacerbates it. Biden is a corrupt politician who lines his pockets with money from Ukraine and China. The investigation into his crime family that the media is sweeping under the rug reveals the truth. This man needs to be removed from office immediately, but the people alone must decide when they’ve had enough.

Biden’s Let’s Finish the Job


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Apr 27, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Biden’s announcement that he is running was crafted like a Twitter post – not live and posted at 6AM. His message is highly questionable for all he is saying is that the Republicans are radicals and therefore vote for him and he will maintain the status quo. There is a void of any new proposal and there is undoubtedly no message about the economy or inflation that is running away and reducing the livelihood of the average American. Quite frankly, this is the most controversial campaign that naturally the media will never even discuss. How do you “finish the job” without knowing what has been accomplished and what remains “finished” in a second term? The total absence of any claim that he accomplished anything from COVID to having 7 aids that are LGBTQ leaves a huge void.

The Republicans, on the other hand, are simply rolling out the same agenda of restraining the debt ceiling which will only work to undermine the entire socialist agenda and that is way too late. The warmongers in the Republican Party would rather spend money throwing it into the Ukrainian Black Hole where we are paying the entire salaries and pensions of Ukrainian government officials with no restraint on their salaries whatsoever. So we are to cut the benefits of Americans but keep funding Ukraine? Sorry, that is not an agenda I would be voting for.

Then there is the Abortion issue so they are fighting well-organized propaganda where even Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg said when she got to the Supreme for Roe v Wade, that it was all about population control and eugenics – not women’s rights.

The defense of Roe v Wade is actually hypocritical for the Democrats. The main support comes from Gates and Rockefeller Foundations and it is covertly supported by the United Nations. This is all about the Planned Parenthood agenda to provide abortions to minorities to reduce their population. Now you may think I am being a conspiracy theorist. However, back in 2009, Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg bluntly told the truth, when she was for equal rights for women.

The Democrats successfully won the abortion argument and the Republicans never understood the issue. It is like asking a witness when was the last time you beat your wife. He will then try to defend himself saying never, and even say ask his wife if he ever beat her. She will say no, and then you argue of course she will deny being beaten out of fear you will beat her again when you get home. You created a no-win argument and changed the entire agenda and nobody understands how you manipulated the entire argument.

Ginsberg made it clear: “Frankly, I had thought that at the time Roe was decided, there was concern about population growth and particularly growth in populations that we don’t want to have too many of.” She spoke bluntly in an interview published in the New York Times Magazine which was an article on women on the court. So it was not simply a woman’s rights agenda. That was the cover story to hide the real agenda which has always existed – eugenics and to reduce the population of minorities.

The Republicans have been diverted to argue over religion and never noticed that the Democrats flipped Eugenics into Women’s Rights. This claim it is my body so it is my choice, was entirely ignored by the Biden Administration when it came to COVID Vaccines. Suddenly nobody cared if it was your body, you were being told to take the vaccine or lose your job.

The Republicans are too caught up in their old rhetoric to notice that they have been played like a fiddle and they are the monkey dancing to the organ-grinder’s tune. I fail to see any Republican charging in on a white horse to save the day. They are too distracted to even understand what day it is.

So when Biden says let’s finish the job, he refuses to even say what the job is.

Neil Oliver’s Take on Tucker Carlson Firing


Posted originally on the CTH on April 26, 2023 | Sundance 

For his daily podcast and discussion segment, UK pundit Neil Oliver puts the firing of Tucker Carlson into a unique context of human behavior.  Tucker is taken down like a trophy in the psychology of those who weaponize power.  Additionally, Oliver hits on a few points that are very accurate – albeit with some who would disagree – about the need for control being a reaction to fear.

The decisionmakers in the Carlson issue removed his voice from a position of weakness, not strength.  The decisionmakers, namely the Ruper Murdoch team, fear Carlson.  Lastly, as Oliver accurately notes, history is a wheel – and during travel there are times in the orbit of the wheel when the component part is traveling backwards. WATCH:

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As you listen to the outline, remember the position of Barack Obama’s former campaign manager, David Plouffe, “it is not enough to simply beat Trump. He must be destroyed thoroughly. His kind must not rise again.”…  There is a ring of historical human brutality to it.

Chrysler Cutting 3,500 Union Auto Jobs


Posted originally on the CTH on April 26, 2023 | Sundance | 187 Comments

Earlier GM cut 5,000 salaried workers and several hundred hourly jobs. Ford previously announced it would cut a total of 3,000 salaried and contract jobs, mostly in North America and India.  Now, today, Chrysler parent company Stellantis announces 3,500 auto sector job cuts.

Stellantis owns the Jeep, Ram, Chrysler, Dodge and Fiat brands. Apparently, there is something in the U.S. economy that’s happening despite the great pretending….

Biden in Michigan, speaking to auto-workers, 2020

WASHINGTON, April 25 (Reuters) – Chrysler-parent Stellantis NV (STLAM.MI) wants to cut approximately 3,500 hourly U.S. jobs and is offering voluntary exit packages, according to a United Auto Workers union letter made public Tuesday.

The automaker is looking to reduce its hourly workforce offering incentive packages that include $50,000 payments for workers hired before 2007, UAW Local 1264 said in a letter dated Monday posted on its Facebook page.

Stellantis spokeswoman Jodi Tinson declined to comment. A person briefed on the matter said the figure might be lower than the figure cited in the UAW letter.

In late February, Stellantis indefinitely halted operations at an assembly plant in Illinois, citing rising costs of electric vehicle production.

The action impacted about 1,350 workers at the Belvidere, Illinois, plant that built the Jeep Cherokee SUV and resulted in indefinite layoffs. The automaker has warned it may not resume operations as it considers other options. (read more)

The Investment Recovery Act (IRA), aka “the green new deal” multitrillion spending bill, was supposed to enhance autoworkers.  Funny how the exact opposite happens.

The incentive packages outlined in the UAW Local 1264 letter included the following details:

  • Incentive Package for Retirement: $50,000 for seniority members hired prior to the 2007 agreement.
  • Voluntary Termination of Employment Program: guaranteed lumpsum benefit payment and is applicable to employees with at least 1 year seniority.

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Overall govt spending and regulatory controls drove inflation for these past two years.  The ‘demand side’ was blamed, despite the lack of demand. I will be proven right when history is concluded with this.  Interest rates were raised by central banks in an effort to support the policies that are driving ‘supply side’ inflation, not demand side.

Energy policy was/is crushing the consumer by driving up the cost of all goods and services.  To support the overall goal of changing global energy resource and development (a false and controlled global operation), central banks raised interest rates.  Various western economies, including our own, have been pushed deeper into a state of contraction by central banks crushing consumer demand, and eliminating investment via increased borrowing costs.

In short, the goal was/is to lower energy consumption by shrinking the economic activity.  This, according to the BBB plan, was needed at the same time as energy development was reduced.

These economic outcomes are not organic, they are all being controlled by collective western government agreement.

Biden 2024 – “Let’s Finish the Job” of Ruining America


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Apr 26, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The worst president in American history is running for re-election under the premise of taking away our remaining freedoms. The media is already stating that the Democrats will not allow any serious challengers. Marianne Williamson, who lost to Biden in 2020, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. both announced that they plan to run, but their own party will likely not back them or allow them to debate Biden. The Washington Post already announced Biden is “not expected to face any serious opposition from elected Democrats for the nomination, despite concerns from some in the party about his age and dissatisfaction among some liberals who say he has not pushed their priorities hard enough.”

Biden is not permitted to speak without a handler and carefully written notes. Journalists toss him easy questions and he still fumbles. Most importantly, the people do not want him to lead. Our way of life has drastically changed for the worse since he first stepped foot in the White House. NBC conducted a poll that found 70% of Americans do not want Biden to run for re-electionThe Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that only 26% of Americans want Biden to remain in power.

Biden has a degenerative cognitive impairment that will only worsen. Already the oldest president in American history, Biden will be 86-years-old if he lives to the end of a second term. Biden was touted as the most popular president in US election history after receiving 81 million votes – let that number sink in as not many people today will openly say they voted for this man. At the time of this writing, Joe Biden’s YouTube channel has 700K subscribers and only 2.4K liked his re-election campaign announcement (they hid the dislike numbers after the Fauci debacle).

This will be one of the dirtiest elections in US history. Civil unrest will turn into division as the people are pitted against each other from every angle. No one will accept defeat, and the elites are fully backing Biden as their ideal puppet president. Gone are the days of fair elections. I must admit that no sitting president was ever ousted from office during a war, and our models indicate serious events unfolding right before the 2024 US Presidential Election. So buckle up because this next year is going to be a wild ride.

Biden Officially Announces Reelection Effort, “Let’s Finish the Job” of Destroying American Dreams


Posted originally on the CTH on April 25, 2023 | Sundance 

Today, 24 hours after Susan Rice ran quickly from the White house, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris officially announced their intention to seek reelection.

The slogan for the campaign is “Let’s Finish the Job,” oddly admitting the collapse of the American middle-class is the goal for 2024.  Everything Biden touches ends up making a total mess for the American people. Then again, this is by design.  Every policy from his administration delivers on the goal of destruction and fundamental change.

The production team behind the false premise that Biden represents, produced a video [SEE HERE] to celebrate the occasion.  However, the rebel alliance produced a more brutally honest video to mark this date in opposition {Direct Rumble Link}. WATCH:

It ain’t Joe

Thoughts on Tucker Carlson’s Firing


Posted originally on the CTH on April 24, 2023 | Sundance 

This is a context you won’t find elsewhere {smiles}. The phone has been blowing up….  Context and some details matter.

First, Carlson was being paid about $20 million a year by Murdoch.  He had about 3 years left on his contract and will be paid the full contract amount.  Carlson found out about 10 minutes before Fox Corp made the announcement.  They did not “part ways,” Tucker Carlson was fired.

(Via WSJ) – Mr. Carlson, whose contract was renewed in 2021, will be paid out for the rest of his contract, people familiar with the matter said. Mr. Carlson is paid about $20 million a year, one of the people said. Mr. Carlson found out he was being let go about 10 minutes before the network announced his departure, the people said. (link)

For financial context, remember Rupert Murdoch paid Megyn Kelly $15 million (Via Harper Collins) for the 2015/2016 operation against Donald Trump.  Paying $60 to $100 million to get rid of Carlson’s antagonistic voice is small money to Murdoch Inc. in the grand scheme of things. [Murdoch has also paid for Ron DeSantis to oppose Trump]

Carlson will not be asked to sign an NDA, is not bound by a “non-compete” clause following the contract nullification by Fox Corp, and will be free to do anything he wants in any venture.  Additionally, he will be free to say whatever he wants about the issues at Fox and speak freely, or not, without any legal or contractual constraints.  Keep all of that in mind.

Prior to 2021, Tucker Carlson was what you might call a Fox News loyalist.  He was very loyal to the organization.  During the COVID-19 era, Tucker Carlson moved his physical location away from Washington DC to his home in Maine.  Fox built him a studio, and Carlson manifest his own destiny free from most production constraints.

Over the past 18+/- months, viewers have watched Tucker Carlson essentially red pill himself each evening.  As he enjoyed the proximity freedom far away from the Eye of Sauron (DC’s control mechanism), Carlson’s eyes opened further to the reality of the situation that blankets our national consciousness.

Disconnected from the machine, free-range in his abilities, and with the intellectual curiosity of the average person, Tucker Carlson started to see the U.S. system as it is, not as media pretend it to be.  This is the increasing red pill absorption you have noted daily.  Along with that came a more pragmatic and brutally honest production quality to the content he shared.

Carlson’s influence grew as the audience grew; the more truth he spoke, the larger the audience.  That free-range influence became a liability to the system operators that hold power, including Rupert Murdoch who is a part of that control system.  In essence, and in the big picture, that’s what led to this event today.

Timing and Fox Digital.  Fox had just settled a lawsuit with Dominion Systems that has been widely reported.  The decision to fire Carlson had only one aspect connected to the Dominion settlement, financial timing.

Fox Corp is going to take a big hit in second quarter (Q2) earnings as part of the Dominion settlement.  If you are going to take a big financial hit, it’s better to go ahead and clear the decks of all financial hits at the same time.

Paying out Carlson simply gets all the big hits in the same quarter.

Digital is where the action is.  Digital subscriber services is where the future of all content is focused.   Understanding this reality gives you a scale of the darkness in the opposition elements facing our nation.  Fox News digital is Fox Nation.  Tucker Carlson and the show Tucker Carlson Today was the anchor of Fox Nation digital.

Fox Nation was struggling prior to Tucker Carlson’s long show broadcasts.  The entire Fox Corp digital streaming service, Fox Nation, was anchored around the Tucker Carlson Today digital streaming service.   Fox News has just torpedoed their anchor, shot their lead dog, destroyed the digital brand.  That gives you some scale and scope to how the elements viewed the threat of influence that Tucker Carlson had become.

Fox Corp, and Murdoch’s stenographers at the Wall Street Journal (SEE HERE), will try to frame the Carlson firing as something of a palate cleansing.  Claims of adversarial viewpoints, controversial views and conflicts with other Fox loyalists on the inside, will be used to frame the narrative.   However, all of those false frameworks are just that, false.  The source of the issue that led to the firing was 100% ideological.

During Tucker’s red pill absorption phase, he changed views on a variety of subjects from the FBI to the Fourth Branch of Government, to vaccination and COVID-19, to his views on Donald Trump as a disruption to an increasingly admitted corrupt political machine.

Context in the Tucker worldview expanded and he began to frame the conflict in a big picture of Good -vs- Evil.  Unfortunately for Carlson, this view was from inside a multinational corporate system spreading the darkness.   He had to be removed.

This is the reality of the situation as it unfolded.   Accept it or not, it matters not.  This is the Carlson reality.

Carlson was connecting the dots of manipulation beyond media, beyond social battles and constructs, and into the realm of finance, economics and ultimately behind the Potemkin Village of UniParty politics.  Blackrock has an increased stake in Fox Corp.

Talking about what happens behind the false front of the DC village is always a threat.   It is in the research and acceptance of the darkest pretending constructs that you realize how the illusions of choice are presented.

Tucker Carlson was no longer selling the illusions.

There are trillions at stake.

He was removed.

Tucker is free.

Welcome to the rebellion my friend!

“They” Explained


Armstrong Economics Blog/Basic Concepts Re-Posted Apr 25, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

People often ask who I am referencing when I refer to “they.” THEY are the leaders of the pack; the neocons. They are the people who create endless wars and use the people as their toy soldiers for war games—we are the toys.

None of these wars affected our way of life and we had no need to be involved in Ukraine, Vietnam, Afghanistan, you name it. But they will create false flags to bring us into wars. It may be a conspiracy but it is not a theory. They conspire to create these wars and use fake news. There were the weapons of mass destruction in Iraq that never existed. The sinking of the Lusitania that propelled us into World War I was intentional. Former President Johnson admitted that Vietnam never attacked us, and leading neocon Robert McNamara admitted before his death that America was wrong for condemning Communist nations. But he died with the guilt of sacrificing 58,000 American lives on the neocon altar of war.

The neocons have a theory that a regime change will save the day. They demonize the head of state and convince themselves that people will cheer once that individual man is overthrown. Saddam, Gaddafi, the list goes on. They think they can overthrow these leaders and simply install a democracy. The problem is that we do not have a democracy; we have a republic. We cannot vote on whether we go to war or if we want to die for the neocons.

They are the aggressors and the ones who created the current conflict. They are on both sides of the political aisle and are installed in positions of power throughout the world. They create division internally to promote civil unrest so that they can elect the person of their choice who will claim to solve the problems they created. They want to create digital currencies to control everything we do while plundering what they allow us to have. They are pushing society as a whole to a breaking point, and unfortunately, their next war game will not end well.

The Great De-Dollarization Fraud of a Lifetime


Armstrong Economics Blog/USD $ Re-Posted Apr 24, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Marty; I was in a board meeting and I just wanted to let you know one guy who is there simply because his family had a stake in the company with zero worldly experience, started ranting about the end of the dollar he probably read on that biased _____________________. I asked this fool, should we then move all our company funds to Russia or China since Brazil is too small of an economy? Should we stop dealing with Americans? He had no response.

Separating a fool from his money seems to be a never-ending fact about humanity.

Cheers

You are the only sane one out there these days

PY

REPLY: I know what you mean. The people promoting this BRICS nonsense have no understanding of the real world. Institutions cannot park billions in Brazil, China, or Russia. Especially in the face of war. The reason the Euro has failed as a serious reserve currency is that there is NO NATIONAL EURO DEBT! Institutions have to still jockey between the various risks of each country and all the Euro did was transfer the foreign exchange risk to the bond market. Sorry, I just do not see where the dollar is in some state of collapse.

When they came to me to create the Euro, I warned them that there would be no single interest rate without the consolidation of the debt. But Kohl never allowed the German people to vote on joining the Euro, so he would not allow the consolidation of the debt. I was told then that they just had to get the Euro started and they would worry about consolidating the debts later. Of course, that never came. Hence, the volatility in FX simply moved to the debt market. The bottom line – the US dollar is still the ONLY place for major institutions to park money – PERIOD! They are not buying Brazil, China, or Russia.

World Trade as a percent of total world GDP PEAKED in 2008 at 61%. It has been in a bear market that will not bottom before 31.4 years taking us into 2040. The sanctions on Russia have divided the world economy and killed SWIFT but it has also ended globalization. To think that the BRICS can replace the dollar with ZERO capacity for international capital to park in such markets is the delusion of absolute fools. China will surpass the USA, but only after 2032.

So here we go again. This nonsense is leading unsuspecting people to follow the piper to divest of dollars and move into what exactly? Most of this is propagated by the gold bugs who will NEVER listen. They hate the dollar because they think gold will rise then. What kind of a world will exist if their doom and gloom were a reality? You might not have any place to spend your wealth. I own gold NOT as an investment, but because of its neutrality.

There is such a major fraud going on with digital currencies with people reporting that the latest scam is using social media to tell people to transfer all their cash to a digital wallet, and BTW – here is the link! If you believe that one, perhaps you would like to buy the Brooklyn Bridge. NYC has a deficit and they will sell it for all the money in your savings. Wake up!

These people remind me of the famous drawing of a fool and his cat.