Monthly Archives: July 2018

Jul 26 2018

Climate Change is Real – Do Droughts Last 8.6 Years?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate

Re-Posted Jul 26, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

 

It is time to begin to really investigate Climate Change for what our computer is forecasting is like a dramatic rise in volatility or a Panic Cycle to be more accurate. What does that mean? We are going to experience extremes on both sides. You will see record temperature in the summer of 100+ F and in the winter, bitterly cold freezing. The admixture of these types of trend plays hell with crops. We are looking at severe droughts. In Australia, we are looking at drought conditions that match the ‘Federation drought‘ which took place during the late 1880s and early 1890s. This also contributed to the rise in socialism. There was a major drought in the outback areas of New South Wales, Queensland, Victoria and South Australia killed many animals. There was a major loss of vegetative cover that led to erosion and a dust bowl. Many native edible plant species vanished with devastating consequences. Between 1895 and 1903 there was a major drought that impacted most of the country. They came to name it the ‘Federation drought‘ which lasted interestingly 8.6 years.

The American Dust Bowl also became known as “the Dirty Thirties” which began in 1930. Regular rainfall did not return to the region until the end of 1939, which finally brought the Dust Bowl years to a close. The severe drought hit the Midwest and Southern Great Plains during 1930. This resulted in major dust storms that began the following year in 1931 coinciding with the Sovereign Debt Crisis. By 1934, an estimated 35 million acres of formerly cultivated land had been rendered completely useless for farming.  Another 125 million acres was rapidly losing its topsoil. Once again, we have a period of 8.6 years.

Again, the next drought which began in late 1949 continued into late 1957 to early 1958 covering once more a duration of 8.6 years. This was also a severe drought in the United States. It did begin during the late 1940s in the Southwestern United States, which expanded into New Mexico and Texas during 1950 and 1951. The drought hit very hard in the Central Plains, Midwest and certain of the Rocky Mountain States, particularly between the years 1953 and 1957.  During 1956, it spread to parts of central Nebraska. From 1950 to 1957, Texas experienced the most severe drought in recorded history. By the time the drought ended, 244 of Texas’s 254 counties had been declared federal disaster areas. California was also hit very hard with some natural lakes drying up completely in 1953. It was Southern California that has been hit hard very hard by the drought during 1958-1959. There was also a widespread dust storm as was the case during the Dust Bowl which impacted the Plains with winds of up to 100 mph (161 km) that reached some 3 feet in depth (a meter).

From a cyclical perspective, the drought cycle has turned up in 2017. We do not expect this to peak until 2025

Jul 26 2018

The Great Alignment on Schedule


Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles

Re-Posted Jul 26, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Dear Martin,

I’ve been revisiting your notes over and over, and it seems that the potential for a False Move is finally in the making, both in the Dow, Gold, Dollar, etc.

You gave 2018 and 2020 as the key turning points for this to unfold, for the trading trap to suck people in, before the markets align. Is this window of time still valid? Will 2020 be the final alignment, with 2032 the next big turning point to complete the cycle?

Always grateful for your work,
SB

 

ANSWER: What these people who also tout gold will rise and nothing else fail to understand, is when confidence in government collapses, EVERYTHING rises. The Great Alignment appears to be on schedule. Part of this has been the Trump Revolution which is really a worldwide event and it is NOT a LEFT v RIGHT event – it is really just throw out the career politicians whoever they may be because people are tired of the lies. Therefore, this alignment is far more than just markets. It’s a shift in CONFIDENCE that drives many trends. It also incorporates the Pension Crisis which helps to undermine the belief system of the people in government.

Therefore, I am bringing all the events around the world together so you can connect the dots. Some people think I am simply supporting Trump. They miss the entire point. Trump is part of this change in trend. He beat 17 career politicians. This is not about if he says crazy things or whatever. He is there BECAUSE this is part of the entire trend just as the new 28-year old waitress/bartender suddenly changed the Democratic Party. You have to look beyond the image to pierce deeply into the substance to see the trend

Jul 25 2018

30 Hours at Trump-Speed…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree house on July 25, 2018 by

Daughnworks247 encapsulates a media cycle at Trump-Speed:  In the last 30 hours:

1. President Trump dropped a MOAB on the state of Georgia for Brian Kemp, and wiped the floor with the establishment GOPe, winning by 39 points.

2. President Travels to Kansas City, giving the speech which made us all cry, to the VFW. Embraces a 94 year old Sargent and we immediately fall in love.

3. Our sheer perfection of a FLOTUS stops in Nashville at a children’s hospital. On the way back CNN reporter asks Stephanie Grisham about the Cohen tapes and tries to take a hit on Melania. Stephanie Grisham came UNDONE and wiped the floor with the little witch.

4. VP Pence in Montana, stops what he is doing, leaves is Secret Service, when a boy waiting to see him on the tarmac passes out. VP Pence was “up and in the middle” of the problem. Good man.

5. CRTV does a parody video about Alexandria Cortez and the left reveals —- they have no sense of humor.  Busted.

6. President Trump meets with John-Claude Junker, President of the EU Commission and makes the deal of a lifetime on tariffs, LNG sales to Europe, and soybeans for the Midwest.

7. DOW spikes 170 points in an hour on news of the trade deal. Business channels who support multinationals are in melt-down… because they’ve been hyping a trade war for 6 months.

8. Facebook earnings post, stock loses 24% of market cap in an hour. That’s what happens when you put Ellen Stover and our friends in Facebook jail.  Payback is hell.

9. Secretary Pompeo testifies to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and I swear, it’s probably the best 3 hours of footage, EVER. He was brilliant.
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At one point, Pompeo asked if he could be allowed to submit, for the record, the list of all the things Trump Admin has done to be ‘tough’ on the Russians.
Turd of a Senator agrees.
Pompeo says, “Well then, let’s back the truck up to deliver (his list).”
************
OMG…..  Killed it.

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10. CNN releases recorded tape of Michael Cohen and President Trump—- and it’s a dud. We learned President Trump says “thank you” when he asks for a Coke.

11. CNN reporter refuses to leave the Oval Office during Junker presser and is pushed out and reprimanded by Bill Shine (new WH Press Coordinator) and Sarah Sanders. She keeps asking questions about the Cohen tape when Junker and Trump are in the midst of a trillion dollar trade deal. WH tells her she is not allowed into the next Rose Garden event, and she gets snippy, saying, “I wasn’t planning on attending anyway”.

White House Press Corps has a meltdown.  CNN issues statement saying “We demand better” and gets hammered on social media.

12. Ben Sasse, who was censured by his own Nebraska GOP party by a vote of 400 to 8 said yesterday, “Trump’s trade policies are ‘Making America 1929 Again’” in an attempt to undermine the President ahead of the Junker negotiations.

This afternoon…. Sasse announced he will not run for reelection in 2020. Bwwwhhahaaaaa.

13. News from China senses discord among the ruling class. China is now lowering interest rates, subsidizing industry, and their economy is flat.  Did I mention their stock market is down about 25% this year?

14. And finally, 11 member of the House file impeachment papers against Rosenstein. The vote will probably not ever happen…… but it sure does piss off Rosenstein.  It tastes sweet.

15. And for the Bonus:  Trump has learned how to ‘thread’ multiple tweets on Twitter. May God have mercy upon his enemies.

Can’t wait until tomorrow……..

Remember, he was in Helsinki, just 8 days ago.

[…] He is moving “forward” at speeds Obama could not even dream of.

[…] Get used to it. Trump speed is the new normal. Some will call it flip-flopping, but that’s not what it is. Trump is dodging and weaving through reality faster than the reality can react to disrupt his plans.

[…] Trump is no longer waiting for people to keep up. He is taking his bewildering art-of-the-deal campaign schtick into geopolitics, and for a lot of people who can’t keep up or hold on, it will be a rough ride.

And he has to do this with evil cheerleaders like Warhead, Linderace, Dipsy Dowd, Maggie Haterman, and Fake Yapper trashing him or praising him alternately, no matter which way he goes. They can’t keep up, either.

Neither can many around him. I think that half of the problem with advisers crashing into each other is they don’t realize what Trump is doing.

[…] Trump is Jupiter moving through the asteroid belt. He is going to pull people into his orbit. A few will get slung off into space, but most will come along for the ride of their lives.

I am ON the Trump Train for good, even if I scream that I want off and can’t take it.

In the end, I only want to scream “TOO MUCH WINNING!!!” (link)

45

Jul 25 2018

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross Discusses Principles of U.S. / EU Trade Agreement…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on July 25, 2018 by

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross appears on Fox News with Barf Baier to discuss the outlines of the trade agreement between the U.S. and E.U.

While there is overlap and a great deal of synergy depending on the deal being negotiated, within the central U.S. trade team each member has a specific region of responsibility to focus upon: ♦U.S.T.R Ambassador Robert Lighthizer has NAFTA; ♦National Economic Council Chairman Larry Kudlow and White House Manufacturing Policy Director Peter Navarro have China; ♦Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross has the EU.

So it makes sense that Secretary Ross would be the point-person discussing the outlines of the U.S./E.U. trade agreement.

Jul 25 2018

You can Watch The Magnitsky Act Behind the Scenes Here (Must Watch)


Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption

Re-Posted Jul 25, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

Watch The Magnitsky Act: Behind the Scene

Jul 25 2018

Unscheduled: President Trump and EU President Juncker Joint Press Statement – 4:00pm EST…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on July 25, 2018 by

The White House has announced an unanticipated joint press statement/availability between President Trump and EU President Jean Claude Juncker to be held at approximately 4:00pm EST in the Rose Garden.

Apparently the EU has agreed to President Trump’s terms on lowering industrial tariffs to enhance U.S. trade opportunities; lower non-tariff barriers to increase agricultural trade, and committed to increased import of LNG (liquid natural gas) to offset Russian energy dependence.  THIS is a developing story….

WH Livestream Link – Fox News Livestream Link – CBS Livestream Link

Jul 25 2018

President Trump Meets With President Of EU Commission Jean Claude Juncker…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on July 25, 2018 by

EU President Jean Claude Juncker arrives sober at the White House to discuss the ongoing negotiations between the EU position(s) on multiple issues and U.S. interests and concerns as outlined by President Trump.

Their are a few primary issues: An ongoing trade reset, and the pending U.S. sanctions against Iran.  Both issues hold significant financial and economic ramifications for the European Union.  Additionally, the construct of Brexit (the U.K. exit from the EU) will determine how the structure of any bilateral trade deal will be made with Britain.  All three issues are enmeshed as President Trump leverages U.S. economic power and access to the U.S. market.


Jul 25 2018

Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue Outlines Trade Reset and Farm Bridge-Subsidy…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on July 25, 2018 by

Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue appears on Mornings With Maria to discuss the $12 billion bridge-aid for farmers during the ongoing trade negotiations; and concerns over the impact of tariffs.  [Expanded Backstory Here]

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Not surprisingly Secretary Perdue notes the U.S. and Mexico are close to a deal within the agriculture sector. Mexican President-elect Lopez Obrador (AMLO) campaigned heavily on correcting the same BIG-AG multinational trade issues that President Trump is confronting.

Jul 25 2018

Judiciary and Oversight Leaders Meeting With DOJ Officials Seeking Documents After Lisa Page Deposition…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on July 25, 2018 by

Former DOJ lawyer, and special counsel assigned to former FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe, Lisa Page, testified before congress on her knowledge of the issues and details surrounding the Trump investigation known as “spygate”.  As a result of that testimony, House Oversight and Judiciary Committee members are now seeking additional documents from the DOJ.

It is likely the documents relate to the State Department’s involvement in the overall counterintelligence investigation;, as well as McCabe’s role in coordinating the activity by FBI agent Peter Strzok.

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It is worth noting that Andrew McCabe originally contradicted Lisa Page about the media leaks he was coordinating. It was Lisa Page presenting evidence to support her version of events that led to the Page/Strzok text messages being delivered to IG and INSD investigators.