Trying to Make Heads or Tails about Recessions


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics Re-Posted Jul 28, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Looking at Socrates,  do you think that these people who were constantly calling for a recession because there were two quarters that declined with covid really need revision? Socrates was correct, no recession. But it is showing major turning points in 2024 which seem to align with your old ECM forecast calling for commodity inflation into 2024. How would you define a recession?

EJ

ANSWER: In trading, reactions are 1 to 3 time units. I believe that the same definition should be used for classifying a recession. They define a recession as two consecutive quarterly declines. If you look at the “Great Recession” of 2008-2009, you will see three consecutive quarterly declines and a rebound. If we look at the COVID recession caused by locking everyone down, that was just two consecutive quarterly declines.

I personally would argue that a true economic recession MUST exceed three consecutive declines. Here is the chart of GNP from 1929 to 1940. There were three years of negative growth. I simply think that this definition of two quarters is wrong. You can have a slight decline of 1 to even 5%, but that does not suggest a recession. In the case of 1929, that was a decline of 9.5% in 1930 – the first year. Now look at the COVID Crash, which was also a decline of 9.53%. But the difference is that the COVID decline was forced and not natural. That is why it rebounded so quickly. Now the so-called “Great Recession” of 2008-2009 only saw a decline in GDP of 3.47%.

The “Great Recession” was not really so great. It wiped out real estate and bankers but did not fundamentally alter the economy. So who is right and who is wrong will always depend upon the definition. Yes, the AI Timing Arrays point to a recession starting Next Year by their definition. This will most likely be caused by the decline in confidence that will lead to UNCERTAINTY, and as such, the consumer will contract. Up to now, the continued expansion of the economy into 2024 has also been fueled by the shift in assets from public to private.

As originally forecast, we should have seen a commodity boom into 2023,

and we should expect a highly authoritarian attempt by 2028.

CBDC & the Fall of Western Society


Armstrong Economics Blog/Cryptocurrency Re-Posted Jul 28, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: You said that when Rome fell it took 700 years before gold coins reappeared. Are we facing something like that again?

PO

ANSWER: Yes, when Rome fell, gold continued in the East under the Byzantine and Islamic Empires. However, in Europe, the last Western emperor was Romulus Augustus (475-476AD) who was a puppet anyhow. He was a young son, whereas today, we have senile leaders who are puppets and incapable of independent rational thought. The first gold coin to reappear in Western Europe was that of Frederick II of Sicily (1231-1250AD). The Augustale was a gold denomination of about 5 and a half grams which Frederick II introduced to Sicily in 1231AD, and it was primarily issued for international trade.

Fibonacci-1

Actually, Fibonacci (1170-1240 AD) published in 1202 his “Liber Abaci” (Book of Abacus). He introduced Hindu-Arabic numerals into Western culture. Suddenly, this allowed the calculation of numbers that were not taught in schools and was unknown in Christian circles. Only a very small group of intellectuals had access to translations of the Arab mathematician al-Khwarizmi (780-850 AD). The techniques that Fibonacci introduced were groundbreaking to re-establish a culture that lost its identity with the fall of Rome. Fibonacci illustrated practical problems on how to calculate profit margin, money changing, barter, conversion of weights and measures, partnerships, and, last but not least, interest. He also introduced some geometry and algebra.

However, Fibonacci’s work was so earth-shattering it became the topic of discussion and caught the attention of King Frederick II of Sicily. I believe it was Fibonacci’s introduction to mathematics that also inspired Frederick II to even reintroduce gold coinage in order to trade with the outside world. At the time, that included the Arabs as well as the Byzantines. The gold dinar was the Islamic medieval gold coin first issued in 696–697AD by Caliph Abd al-Malik ibn Marwan with a weight of 4.25 grams. Frederick II made his coin about 1 gram heavier in order to project economic power.

The introduction of CBDC is highly dangerous in war; even a nuclear blast also sends out an EM pulse that will destroy electronics. If I were Russia or China, I would NOT move to any sort of digital currency and then use an EMP against the United States. The entire economy would collapse. People would not even be able to buy anything. We have idiots in power who are so greedy, looking at the power this will place in their hands, they are ignoring the risks. This could mark the collapse of Western society, sending us back to the days of Barter.

The Post-2032 era would most likely be fragmented rather than national states as we know them today. There will most likely emerge regional currencies, as we have witnessed throughout history many times. Even during the Great Depression, over 200 US cities resorted to issuing their own money.

Top Men Close Investigation into White House Cocaine – Secret Service Say Too Difficult to Trace Ownership


Posted originally on the CTH on July 13, 2023 | Sundance 

Well, I guess that’s that.  The top men in charge of investigating the cocaine that was found in the west wing of the White House have said it was too difficult to figure out where it came from. The case is now closed.

CNN — The Secret Service has concluded its investigation into the small bag of cocaine found at the White House and has been unable to identify a suspect, according to a statement from the US Secret Service.

Secret Service officials combed through “security systems” and indexed “several hundreds individuals” who entered the West Wing in the days preceding the discovery and were unable to identify a suspect, according to the USSS statement. The Secret Service said FBI lab results from the packaging found “insufficient DNA” and could not retrieve any fingerprints. “Therefore, the Secret Service is not able to compare evidence against the known pool of individuals,” a statement from the USSS said.

Investigators were also unable to identify the particular moment or day when the baggie was left inside the West Wing cubby near the lower-level entrance where it was discovered.

“There was no surveillance video footage found that provided investigative leads or any other means for investigators to identify who may have deposited the found substance in this area,” the agency’s statement said. “Without physical evidence, the investigation will not be able to single out a person of interest from the hundreds of individuals who passed through the vestibule where the cocaine was discovered. At this time, the Secret Service’s investigation is closed due to a lack of physical evidence.” (more) 

The Least Popular President in 70 Years        


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Jul 6, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Every poll imaginable shows Biden and Harris steeply declining in popularity. Biden’s favorability is now lower than the past 13 presidents. I cannot imagine any sane person supporting him after what he has done to the nation in the past three years. No one can honestly say they are better off under Biden.

This man received more votes than any other president in US history. Despite his rapidly declining poll numbers, he refuses to campaign. His handlers know that they do not need to campaign because the election results have already been decided. They want to keep him far from the public eye because he embarrasses himself at every speaking engagement.

White House physician Kevin O’Connor stated Biden was “fit for duty,” but he clearly is in a state of cognitive decline. A YouGov survey showed 67% of voters, 48% of who identified as Democrats, believe Biden is too old to run for a second term. His age is the least of his worries as there is clearly an underlying degenerative disorder. Biden slipped up and admitted he “sold a lot of state secrets.” Information has been pouring in about Biden’s illegal dealings with Ukraine and China. He campaigned on the Build Back Better platform and has run America into the ground to the point where it will be extremely difficult to ever build it back, let alone better.

It really all comes down to finances. Biden has been on a rampage of a spending spree since he took office. None of his policies eased inflation. Shelter, food, fuel, and all the basic necessities of survival are at unsustainable levels. People may have hated Trump all they wanted, but at least they could afford to fill their fridges and pay rent. Under any other circumstance, the POTUS would campaign as much as their schedule permitted to win over the people. He is not doing that because they know a false flag event will happen before the 2024 US Presidential Election to ensure one of the least capable presidents in history remains in power.

Supreme Court Rules Biden Student Loan Forgiveness Program Exceeds Constitutional Constraints


Posted originally on the CTH on June 30, 2023 | Sundance 

After a legal debate about standing in the case of Biden v Nebraska, the Supreme Court took up the issue of whether the President could unilaterally forgive student debt without an act of Congress.  In a 6-3 ruling {pdf here}, the court determined the executive authority of the Dept of Education did not permit such action.

Joe Biden campaigned in 2020 on a promise to eliminate student debt unilaterally, without congressional approval.  The court opinion released today affirms that Congress must be involved in their role as decision-makers of federal spending.  Justice John Roberts wrote the majority opinion.

[SCOTUS BLOG] – […] When the Biden administration announced the program in August 2022, student-loan repayments had already been on hold for over two years. Betsy DeVos, who served as the secretary of education during the Trump administration, suspended both repayments and the accrual of interest on federal student loans at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. She relied on the HEROES Act, a law passed in the wake of the Sept. 11 attacks that gives the secretary of education the power to respond to a national emergency by “waiv[ing] or modify[ing] any statutory or regulatory provision” governing the student-loan programs so that borrowers are not worse off financially because of the emergency.

[…]  The HEROES Act, Roberts emphasized, gives the secretary of education the power to “waive or modify” laws and regulations governing the student-loan programs. Congress’s use of the word “modify” means that the Biden administration can make “modest adjustments and additions to existing provisions,” Roberts wrote, “not transform them.” But the debt-relief program, Roberts stressed, instead “created a novel and fundamentally different loan forgiveness program.” The plan “modifies” student-loan laws and regulations, Roberts suggested, “only in the same sense that the French Revolution ‘modified’ the status of the French nobility — it has abolished them and supplanted them with a new regime entirely.”  

Roberts rejected the Biden administration’s contention that the secretary of education also has the power to “waive” laws and regulations relating to the student-loan program. When the secretary has invoked this power in the past, Roberts observed, he has done so for a specific legal requirement, such as the requirement that a student provide a written request for a leave of absence. But in this case, Roberts noted, the secretary has not indicated that he is waiving a specific provision.

Roberts also rebuffed the Biden administration’s argument that the debt-relief program is consistent with the purpose of the HEROES Act – that is, to give the secretary of education the power to provide relief to borrowers during a national emergency. “The question here,” Roberts countered, “is not whether something should be done; it is who has the authority to do it.” On this point, Roberts invoked the “major questions” doctrine, which is the idea that if Congress wants to give an administrative agency the power to make decisions of vast economic or political significance, it must say so clearly. But in this case, Roberts said, the HEROES Act did not authorize the debt-relief program at all, much less clearly. (read more

Additionally, the court also released a decision on a Colorado law that forced a Christian website designer to create wedding websites against her First Amendment right to free speech and freedom of religion.  {pdf HERE}

The court ruled the state cannot enforce a state anti-discrimination law against a Christian website designer who does not want to create wedding websites for same-sex couples, because doing so would violate her First Amendment right.

The First Amendment, Gorsuch explained, “protects an individual’s right to speak his mind,” even when others may regard that speech as “deeply misguided” or it may cause “anguish.” And the First Amendment generally also protects an individual from being required by the government to voice a particular message.

In this case, Gorsuch observed, even the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 10th Circuit agreed that the websites that Smith wants to create are speech. But if Smith wants to speak, he stressed, she must choose between following her conscience, which means only creating wedding websites for opposite-sex couples, and violating Colorado law, or following the law and violating her religious beliefs.

Under the Supreme Court’s cases interpreting the First Amendment, Gorsuch concluded, “that is enough, more than enough, to represent an impermissible abridgment of the First Amendment’s right to speak freely.” (read more)

Critics of the decision argue this precedent now permits public businesses to discriminate based on all sorts of issues they will define as their speech rights.  However, public businesses are currently permitted to discriminate, as long as that discrimination does not violate constitutional rights (ex. freedom of religious belief) or specifically tailored categories.  States cannot pass laws that force or compel people to violate their First Amendment rights.

The conservative-right and the moonbat-left will never give him credit, but Trump’s three SCOTUS appointments are delivering measured positive results.

Biden: I Sold A Lot of State Secrets


Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption Re-Posted Jun 28, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

PRESIDENT BIDEN:  Okay.  We — I was just thanking the — anyway, I started off without you, and I sold a lot of state secrets and a lot of very important things that we shared.  (Laughter.)

The only time Joe Biden speaks the truth is when he goes off script. He has said it before that his people would be mad at him for speaking without direction. Biden is currently (not) under investigation for selling state secrets to Ukraine and China. We know without a shadow of a doubt that his son Hunter obtained lucrative business contracts overseas while traveling on Air Force Two. We’ve heard, “10% for the big guy,” with no investigation. Now, the POTUS is openly mocking us for being above the law.

“We’re — we’re going to see more technol- — technological change — you’ve heard me say this a number of times — in the next 10 years than we saw in the last 50 years — and maybe in the next few years — the last 50 years,” Biden eloquently said. “Sometimes it’s a little difficult to say too much in front of all the press present here,” Indian PM Modi responded, likely glad he has the BRICS pact to rely on after seeing Biden’s mental decline on full display. You can see Modi’s absolute shock when Biden ADMITS to selling state secrets. That was not a joke but a slip of the tongue.

Biden embarrassed the entire nation during his meeting with Modi in India. He saluted the Indian national anthem before slowly lowering his hand after his handlers told him that “The Star-Spangled Banner” was not playing. He refused to let go of Modi’s hand after walking down the podium, and his wife Jill was clearly flustered, not knowing where to stand. America looks weak because our leader is weak.

Biden has made a mockery of America and the due process of law. He implemented laws as a senator to punish men for crimes his own son committed without penalty. He has had his political opponents arrested in true dictator fashion. The intelligence agencies work for him, or at least for the deep state propping him up. And now, days after the WhatsApp message revealed Hunter used his father’s name for power, he “jokes” about selling state secrets. To quote Joe Biden himself, “This man cannot remain in power.”

Sunday Talks – Miranda Devine and Peter Schweizer Discuss the Details of Biden’s Bribery Operation and the DOJ Coverup


Posted originally on the CTH on June 26, 2023 | Sundance 

New York Post columnist Miranda Devine and Government Accountability Institute President Peter Schweizer appear with Maria Bartiromo to review the whistleblower evidence against Hunter and Joe Biden.

The House Ways and Means Committee has evidence from the IRS investigators turned whistleblowers, not only about the Hunter Biden criminal conduct, but also about how the DOJ ran a coverup operations to protect Joe and Hunter Biden from criminal accountability surrounding bribery and government corruption.

Schweizer also notes there is another AT&T phone number from the Hunter Biden laptop material that connects to Joe Biden.  WATCH: 

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Fetterman and Biden – Why We Need Cognitive Tests for Politicians


Blog/Politics

Posted Jun 21, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

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I-95, a major roadway going through Philadelphia, collapsed. People were understandably concerned and looked to their elected officials for answers. I cannot imagine a more inept team than Biden and Fetterman. Some joke and mock the two men, but if you step back and really look at what is happening within the Democrat Party, it is completely astonishing. This is why confidence in America is declining rapidly.

When will everyone agree that the Democrats have gone too far? I am not mocking these men for having cognitive impairments, but they are completely unfit to serve their country. They would step down gracefully instead of clinging to power if they actually loved their nation and cared about the people. Cut off the puppet strings. In no other profession would people turn a blind eye to this behavior. A teacher could not stand in front of a classroom and mumble through a lecture spouting nonsense, and a businessman could not attend a meeting and forget his speaking points. No one could turn up to work in a sweatshirt and shorts to be relatable, as they would not be taken seriously. This is not acceptable. Do the people voting for these characters realize they’re in charge of making major decisions that affect our society? Look at Dianne Feinstein and others who refuse to relinquish their seats even though they cannot serve.

Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley is demanding both term limits and cognitive tests for politicians. She wants politicians over 75 to receive these exams, but ALL should be subject to one. You could not serve in the military or serve your community without a clear mind. I have long stated that permanent politicians must be removed from office. They are leeches to our society and serve no purpose other than serving themselves and their donors. Haley’s comments on cognition tests for those over 75 were also intended as a jab at Donald Trump, who is now 77. “ANYBODY running for the Office of President of the United States should agree to take a full & complete Mental Competency Test,” Trump said in response. We must question those who believe that the people are not entitled to know if their leaders are fit to serve.

Biden – Admits He is a Puppet


Aemstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Jun 17, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: You are just anti-Democrat and always against Biden.

WU

REPLY: Sorry, you are so biased you cannot look objectively at anything. When Biden utters the phrase “I’m deviating from the script, and I going to get in trouble” don’t you understand that someone is scolding him if he speaks his own mind? I’m sorry. That is irrefutable evidence that he is nothing more than a puppet.

You obviously do not care who is really calling the shots. So far, these people behind the curtain using Biden have destroyed the world economy by corrupting SWIFT, the sanctions on Russia have only divided the world economy ending globalism. Then they have the audacity to threaten China that if they supply arms to Russia there will be sanctions against them. All of this is when the US is supplying arms to Ukraine. They have transformed the USA from the policeman of the world to the arrogant world dictator.

There was the One China policy and the Biden administration has abandoned decades of peace ensuring now that China has no choice but to invade Taiwan or appear subservient to the United States. Then these people have NATO expanding opening in Japan to spread their version of world peace by bombing the hell out anyone they dislike exercising their dictatorial power. NATO is no the greatest threat to Europe. The only country that sees this is France. NATO will destroy all of Europe.

So feel free to vote for Biden if you are over 70 and have no family members then you will not be drafted which may go up to 65 years old this time and include girls. Otherwise, a vote for Biden will be a vote to send your children or grandchildren to die on some foreign battlefield all for the glory of the NEOCONS. The United States is in the midst of a coup. The NEOCONS are in full control – their dream has come true. A vote for Biden is a vote for the NEOCONS. Vote for RFK, Jr. but not Biden if you care about your country. Biden is the patsy. He is not making these decisions.

You have no idea how this works. For nearly 50 years, FBI director J. Edgar Hoover (1895-1972) amassed secret files on America’s most prominent figures. He then used those files to blackmail and smear presidents and politicians. You did what he ORDERED or he would use the dirt on you to end your career or imprison you as they are doing to Trump right now. The NEOCONS have done that to Biden and his family. He does what he is told – OR ELSE!

Biden Wannabe Dictator? No Way.


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Jun 15, 2023 by Martin Armstrong