Category Budapest Agreement 1994

Sep 11 2022

Is Russia Losing?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Russia Re-Posted Sep 10, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The Ukrainian army is at least one-third larger than it was last year and some claim it has doubled in size. They have been concentrating their effort, not on the Donbas, but on Ukraine’s Kharkov region. The Russian Defense Ministry has confirmed that Russia has withdrawn its troops from multiple locations across Ukraine’s Kharkov region pulling back to the Donbas in the face of a major Ukrainian offensive in the area. The Ministry has actually stated: “In order to achieve the goals of the special military operation, a decision was made to regroup troops in the areas of Balakleya and Izyum in order to build up efforts in the Donetsk direction.”

The troops that were stationed in the Kharkov area have been “re-deployed” over the past three days pulling back to the Donetsk People’s Republic. It also stated that during its withdrawal, the military had performed a “number of distracting and demonstration activities imitating the real action of troops.”  It did not elaborate. It was attacking the Ukrainians to allow the withdrawal with artillery, missile, and aircraft attacks to provide cover. They claimed that they destroyed over 100 armor pieces and artillery and eliminated “more than 2,000 Ukrainian and foreign fighters” in the past three days. The Ukrainian offensive was launched in the Kharkov Region on Thursday, but they were not as successful.

The real problem will emerge with the coming winter and is likely to be a very tough winter. While NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg keeps urging Ukraine to continue fighting against Russia, it puts out this urging saying that otherwise, the country may “cease to exist” as an independent nation. From the outset, Putin did not seek to conquer all of Ukraine. One must wonder if the West is not propagating this war claiming Ukraine will cease to exist unless it fights Russia. That certainly eliminates any settlement or a peace treaty. NATO needs war with Russia and Putin by now has to understand that his real enemy is NATO and the USA. The propaganda fueling this agenda can be seen in the words of Stoltenberg who told the AP:

“If President [Vladimir] Putin and Russia stop fighting, then we will have peace. If Ukraine stops fighting, then Ukraine will cease to exist as an independent nation.” 

Stoltenberg admitted that there has been “no sign” that Putin or Moscow is giving up its objectives in Ukraine. He keeps insisting that Russia’s ultimate goal in the conflict is “taking control of Ukraine.” He knows that is not true and perhaps is begging Putin to adopt that goal. If that were true, Putin should do as the USA did in Iraq – (1) take down the power grid, (2) take down the communications, (3) attack the water supply, and (4) attack the food supply.

“Winter’s coming” as they warned in Game of Thrones. Reuters has reported that the flows of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine were stable at the start of the week. Nord Stream 1 pipeline from Russia to Germany “remained shut and eastbound gas flows via the Yamal-Europe pipeline to Poland from Germany continued at low levels.”

Beware of the feigned-retreat is a military tactic, whereby a military force pretends to withdraw to lure an enemy into a position of vulnerability. Ukraine is now concentrating its forces in Kharkov region. Putin cannot be stupid and with the approach of winter, he should cut off all the gas through Ukraine to Europe and do as Stoltenberg keeps saying. There are two options. Use Tactical nuclear weapons, also called nonstrategic nuclear weapons, are generally designed for battlefield use and have a shorter range than strategic, or long-range, nuclear weapons, which are designed to directly attack an adversary’s homeland.

Herodotus reported that the Ancient Spartans used the feigned-retreat tactic at the Battle of Thermopylae (480BC) to defeat a force of Persian Immortals. Socrates debated a general who said it was cowardly to retreat. Even during the Battle of Agrigentum, in Sicily (262BC) during the First Punic War. Then the Carthaginian general Hanno, son of Hannibal, sent in his cavalry to attack the Roman cavalry and then pulled a feign-retreat drawing the Romans right into the arms of the main Carthaginian army waiting patiently.

Russia sent troops into Ukraine on February 24, citing Kiev’s failure to implement the Minsk agreements that were to provide the regions of Donetsk and Lugansk special status within the Ukrainian state and to vote on their own separation since they were ethnically Russians. That agreement was brokered by Germany and France and was first signed in 2014. Former Ukrainian President Pyotr Poroshenko then admitted that Kiev’s main goal was to use the ceasefire to buy time and “create powerful armed forces.” That is precisely what was done.

The problem now is that this appears to be an all-out war that the West keeps saying Russia is losing. I fear if that were true, then we will be looking at tactical nuclear weapons being used in Ukraine calling the bluff of Europe- Who will be next? Beware of next April and this coming January does not look very quiet on the Western front. The Pi Target from the fall of the USSR comes on April 6th, 2023. The West keeps telling the Ukrainians that Russia is losing and that the overthrow of Putin will bring peace. I fear this is just total propaganda dor the people behind Putin are far worse and think he has been too soft on Ukraine.

Sep 11 2022

U.K Energy Reaches Crisis Point, Britain Announces New Oil and Gas Leases and Lifts Moratorium on Fracking


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 10, 2022 

There is a particular historical irony in the timing.  On the same day King Charles III ascends the throne, previously Europe’s most isolated from consequence – yet loudest voice in chasing the catastrophic climate change energy policies, the British government is forced to reverse course on years of energy regulations and restrictions.

Britain’s new Prime Minister Liz Truss announced, “a new round of oil and gas licensing will come next week with more than 100 licenses issued. A moratorium on fracking will be lifted and planning permission can be sought where there is local support,” in an urgent emergency effort to lower energy costs for British citizens.

The move comes in combination with a government plan to help citizens and businesses cope with skyrocketing prices for electricity and home heating fuel.  The climate change chickens have come home to roost throughout Europe and the British government is urgently trying to head-off the calamitous consequences.

Inside the media announcements of the Truss plan, the biggest concern expressed is how the financial and multinational banking sector (the ESG investment groups) will respond to the government position. After decades of ideological “green” outlooks flowing into the energy industry, the biggest concern expressed in the financial analysis is how a reversal by such a large economic system will reverberate.

The climate change ideology has a stranglehold on the energy sector of the economy, this move by Great Britain would be the most significant push-back in decades.  The minority green activists are apoplectic that they may lose control over the majority of opinion.  The economics of a reversal in energy policy could reverberate throughout the western alliance, particularly in Europe.  It will be interesting to see whether this shift in U.K. policy has ripple effects in the U.S.

LONDON, Sept 8 (Reuters) – Britain’s move to green-light dozens of new oil and gas fields will leave investors and banks with a tough PR job as Britain struggles to shore up its energy security whilst sticking to its climate commitments.

Starting new oil and gas projects runs counter to the world’s shift away from fossil fuels in the fight against global warming and a commitment at last November’s U.N. climate talks to phase down their use.

Yet runaway inflation amid conflict in Ukraine has forced the hand of new British prime minister Liz Truss as Russian President Putin seeks to use energy as a weapon this winter.

Britain will launch a new round of oil and gas licensing next week with more than 100 licenses issued, part of a wider package of measures to tackle the energy crisis announced by Truss on Thursday.

And Britain’s not alone in reassessing its energy strategy. Germany, for example, has been forced to turn back to even dirtier thermal coal to help fuel its power plants and keep the lights on, hampering short-term efforts to rein in climate-damaging carbon emissions.

But for energy companies and the investors, bankers and insurers that finance them, new investment in fossil fuels also presents a challenge given many have made their own pledges to reach net-zero emissions by mid-century.

“This will absolutely hinder companies’ … ability to hit their climate targets,” said Pietro Bertazzi, global director of policy engagement and external affairs at non-profit environmental disclosure platform CDP. (read more)

This is the first crack in the western alliance and the ‘climate change’ agenda of the World Economic Forum as it relates to energy policy and ultimately control over human life within the alliance.

The war in Ukraine was being used as a justification to explain the consequences of European energy policy, particularly rapidly increasing costs for energy and food, but the war in Ukraine was not the cause.  The true root cause of the exploding inflation and economic mess was the Build Back Better agenda, and the series of policies dictated from within it, that each nation willingly accepted.

Sep 7 2022

Ukrainian Parliament Lines Pockets with Western Aid


Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption Re-Posted Sep 7, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The pro-war People’s Deputies of Ukraine Party are using Western funding to line their pockets. It has been reported that the average paycheck went from 28,800 to 49,600 hryvnia, and taxpayers in other countries will pay for their raises.

This news came out shortly after CBS attempted to release a documentary that claimed weapon shipments from the US were frequently missing. CBS was forced to redact parts of the documentary, “Arming Ukraine,” after Ukraine’s government threatened them. The first report stated that 70% of the weapon purchases had gone missing, while another piece said only 30% of aid had arrived. “Since that time, Ohman says delivery has improved,” CBS backtracked. “We are updating our documentary to reflect this new information and air at a later date.”

“The weapons are stolen, the humanitarian aid is stolen, and we have no idea where the billions sent to this country have gone,” an anonymous veteran originally told reporters. He went on to claim that soldiers are receiving less pay while those at the top are lining their pockets. Zelensky continually claims that his country needs endless funds for the endless war. Where is this money going? Since WE are paying for the war, we deserve to know the truth.

https://rumble.com/embed/v1cekpj/?pub=4#?secret=N3Xrpl0SVY

Sep 7 2022

Two More EU Aluminum Smelters Going Offline Due to Excessive Energy Costs, Aluminum Shortages Predicted


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 6, 2022 | Sundance 

On one hand losing the ability to manufacture aluminum is bad news for any economic activity that requires the use of aluminum.  However, on the other hand, this politically guided ‘new world’ we are going toward doesn’t need aluminum, because you cannot eat it.

Predictably 2023 is going to be the beginning of several ‘Build Back Better’ decades where the ownership of material things disappears.  When your wages are focused on sustaining yourself with housing, food and energy, all of those other purchases become mere indulgences.

Sustainable life in equity with the needs of the planet, means returning to the era when you received an orange or a piece of chocolate as a Christmas gift, and you are thankful. Cars, appliances, phones or other types of luxury durable goods are indulgences which become out of reach for the worker class.  Thus, removing smelters, iron works, factories and other heavy industrial machines only makes sense.

As meager wage earnings are focused on purchases to sustain life, there is little room for indulgences.  As the World Economic Forum has stated, we will own nothing and we will be happy.  Happiness experiences will be provided and the virtual metaverse will fill our needs.

LONDON, Sept 1 (Reuters) – Two more European aluminium smelters are powering down as the region’s energy crisis shows no signs of abating.

Slovenia’s Talum will reduce output to just a fifth of capacity and Alcoa (AA.N) will curtail one line at its Lista plant in Norway.

Close to 1 million tonnes of European primary aluminum capacity is now offline and more may follow as a notoriously power-hungry sector struggles to cope with soaring energy costs.  (read more)

Again, I return to the imagery surrounding our foundational questions, and hopefully things are starting to make sense.

Sep 7 2022

Russia Shuts Down Nord Stream 1 Gas Pipeline, Gasprom Sends out Eerie Video ‘Winter is Coming’


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 6, 2022 | Sundance 

Well, it looks like it’s official now. After several days of sporadic reporting on Russia’s decision to shut down the Nord Stream 1 natural gas pipeline into western Europe, it looks like the valves have been shut down until EU sanctions against Russia are removed.

Strategically the Nord Stream 1 pipeline is the major gas supply route into Germany, Europe’s largest economy. As noted by Reuters, “European gas prices, as measured by the benchmark Dutch TTF October gas contract, rose by as much as 30% on Sept. 5, amid growing fears of a total shutdown of Russian pipeline imports ahead of the European winter.”

Europe was already going into a deep economic recession due to inflation created by pre-existing green energy policy.  The Nord Stream shutdown will make things exponentially worse as energy prices skyrocket.  The Russian owned energy company Gasprom sent out a video that can be best described as psychological warfare.  WATCH:

https://youtube.com/watch?v=n2b_0gfV_4E%3Ffeature%3Doembed

.

Sep 7 2022

Wow, Europe Household Electric Bills Estimated to Jump by $2 Trillion Next Year, That’s 12% of Their GDP


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 6, 2022 | Sundance

What is predicted to happen in Europe is just stunning, literally stunning.

♦Context – According to official data from the World Bank, the combined Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the European Union was just over $17 trillion US dollars in 2021. That is the last calculated measure.  The combined GDP value of European Union represents roughly 12.78 percent of the world economy.

According to analysts for Goldman Sachs, the current energy crisis in Europe has increased electricity prices at a rate that is increasing almost daily.  Within the data it is now estimated that households within the EU will pay an additional $2 trillion for electricity in the next year.

Put that $2 trillion into context with their GDP, and that scale of energy cost would be wiping out 12% of the purchasing strength within the total EU economy.  Forget about buying anything else, if this analysis is correct Europeans will be buying food and energy, nothing else.

If you consider what that means, it is bordering on full economic collapse of western Europe.

What is being described above is what we posited when we outlined the impact of the “Energy Economy” {Go Deep}.  When you suck 12% of the purchasing power out of an economic engine simply to maintain the status of current energy use, everything else starts to collapse.

Also keep in mind we are only talking about the direct impact of $2 trillion in electricity cost.  The downstream consequence is far greater because everything created, produced, or manufactured, including food, is dependent on electricity – which will drive the final cost to produce of all those products even higher.

The damage is almost unimaginable in scale.

[Fortune] – European households should brace for an expensive winter owing to the continent’s deepening energy crisis that will likely send electricity and heating bills soaring.

Energy affordability in Europe is reaching a “tipping point” that could peak next year, with total spending on bills across the continent growing by 2 trillion euros ($2 trillion), a Goldman Sachs research team, led by Alberto Gandolfi and Mafalda Pombeiro, said in a note published Sunday.

Many European households are already feeling the bite of a steadily worsening energy crisis, brought on by Russian natural gas producers intermittently pausing flows along the critical Nord Stream pipeline following Western sanctions this year.

Energy bills at some restaurants and coffee shops have already more than tripled this year, but with threats looming that natural gas supply from Russia could become even tighter as the Ukraine War rages on, analysts warn that Europe’s coming struggles are set to rival some of the worst energy crises on record.

“The market continues to underestimate the depth, the breadth, and the structural repercussions of the crisis,” the Goldman Sachs analysts wrote. “We believe these will be even deeper than the 1970s oil crisis.” (read more)

The economic contagion will not be isolated to Europe.

The impacts to the social fabric are also almost unquantifiable in scale.

Example: What happens to migration patterns when economic migrants are now considered a threat to scarce resources?

While the US is not quite in the same level of energy desperation, what we were discussing last week is an example of the problem we too may face.

Let’s say you are an average USA Main Street household with an income around $100,000/yr, and you now face an increase in electricity rates from $300 to $500 due to Joe Biden’s new national energy policy known as the Green New Deal.  That’s $200 more per month for this initial economic/energy “transition” moment.

That extra $200/month equates to $2,400 per year.

That $2,400 per year is static economic activity.  Meaning nothing additional was created, and nothing additional was generated.  The captured $2,400 is simply an increase in the price of a preexisting expense.

Take that expense and expand it to your community of 100 friends and family households.  The $2,400 now becomes $240,000 in cost that doesn’t generate anything.  $240,000 is removed from the community economy.  $240,000 is no longer available for purchasing other goods or services within this community of 100 households.

The economic purchasing power of the 100-household community is reduced by $240,000 per year.

Take that expense and expand it to your county of 10,000 households.  Now you are reducing the county economic activity by $24 million.  In this county of 10,000 households, $24 million in economic transactions have been wiped out.  Meals at restaurants, purchases of goods and services, or any other spending of the $24 million within the county of 10,000 households (approximately 25,000 residents) has been lost.

Now expand that expense to a larger county, quantified as a mid-size county, of 50,000 households.  The mid-sized county has lost $120 million in household economic activity, simply to sustain the status quo on electricity rates.  Nothing extra has been generated. $120 million is lost.  The activity within the county of 50,000 households shrinks by $120 million.

Expand that expense to a large county of 100,000 households, and the lost economic activity is $240 million.

Expand that expense to a small state of 1 million households (2.5 million residents), and the lost economic activity is $2.4 billion.

Expand that expense to a state with 5 million households (approximately 12 million residents) and the economic cost is $12 billion in lost economic activity unrelated to the expense of maintaining the status-quo on electricity use.   This state loses $12 billion in purchases of goods and services, just to retain current energy use.

These examples only touch on household expenses.  The community, county and state business expenses for offices, supermarkets, stores, etc. are in addition to the households quoted.

Meanwhile the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the community, county and state, remains static because the GDP is calculated on the total value of goods and services generated in dollar terms.  The appearance of a static GDP is artificial.  In real Main Street terms, $12 billion in economic activity is lost, but the price or increased value of electricity hides the drop created by the absence of goods and services purchased.

Fewer goods and services are purchased and consumed.  However, statistically the inflated price of electricity gives the illusion of a status quo economy.

Now expand that perspective to a national level and you can see our current economic condition.

All of this is being done under the justification of “climate change.”

Previously I would have said this level of economic impact in Europe would lead to a total revolt against the government.  However, with the backdrop of the recent COVID lockdowns and government control mechanisms in mind, and looking at the citizen compliance that took place in response to those government mandates, it is now more likely the citizens in Europe will simply bow to the energy control mechanisms of the governing authority.

It’s almost as if the COVID compliance effort was the test…

Sep 5 2022

UNREST BEGINS – Massive EU Protests Spiral Out Of Ukraine Crisis


The Dive With Jackson Hinkle Published originally on Rumple on September 4, 2022 

It begins first in the EU then America and then the world beware of the next three years

Sep 4 2022

Nuts, Biden Administration Plans to Ask Congress for Another $14 Billion For Ukraine


Posted originally on the conservative tree house September 3, 2022 | Sundance

This has become absurd.  According to an AP report, Joe Biden is planning to ask congress for an additional $13.7 billion for Ukraine within a budgetary request for $47 billion spending package.

According to the report the Ukraine spending request will be inside a package for additional COVID-19 spending, Monkeypox spending and other domestic relief.

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Joe Biden is asking Congress to provide more than $47 billion in emergency dollars that would go toward the war in Ukraine, the response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the ongoing monkeypox outbreak and help for recent natural disasters in Kentucky and other states.

The request, which comes as lawmakers are preparing to return to Washington and fund the government, seeks $13.7 billion related to Ukraine, including money for equipment, intelligence support and direct budgetary support. Shalanda Young, the director of the White House Office of Management and Budget, said that more than three-fourths of the $40 billion approved by Congress earlier this year has already been disbursed or committed.

“We have rallied the world to support the people of Ukraine as they defend their democracy and we cannot allow that support to Ukraine to run dry,” Young said in a blog post.

[…]  In Friday’s request, the White House is seeking $7.1 billion to procure additional vaccines and for replenishing personal protective equipment in the Strategic National Stockpile, among other measures. Another $8 billion would go to accelerate research for next-generation vaccines and therapeutics.

Biden is also seeking $2 billion to continue COVID-19 testing programs, including an initiative to distribute free at-home tests that ended on Friday as the government says it is running short on funds. White House officials say they have some tests left in the stockpile, but not enough to provide free tests if cases sharply increase. (read more)

Aug 31 2022

Mikhail Gorbachev Dies, Aged 91


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 30, 2022 | Sundance 

Mikhael Gorbachev was the leader of the Soviet Union from 1985 until its collapse in December 1991. As general secretary and president of the USSR/Russia, he helped forge historic weapons reduction deals with former U.S. Presidents Reagan and Bush and eventually removed the “Iron Curtain.”

According to Russian media, he died earlier today at the age of 91.

Aug 29 2022

Ukrainians Forbidden From Accepting Russian Aid


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Aug 29, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Ukrainians are not permitted to accept any humanitarian relief from Russian agencies. Civilians in a war zone could face life imprisonment for accepting relief, including food. Ministry of Internal Affairs Alyona Matveeva said each case would be analyzed separately.

“For example, if a person called to support the military of the Russian Federation or provided some information, took humanitarian aid (from the Russians – ed.) and distributed it – this is one punishment, if it is about some more serious actions of a person, for example, when a person’s collaborative activity had such an impact that someone died because of it – the term in this case can be more serious, even up to life imprisonment,” the spokeswoman said.

There are currently 815 ongoing criminal investigations for breaching national security, treason, and collaborationism. This is simply what is occurring in Ukraine, but anyone in a country that has joined the proxy war found aiding Russia could come under fire. I reported on the signs around Estonia’s border, asking people to report anyone suspected of collaborating with the enemy. We have not learned from history. This is another example of the government turning neighbors against one another. The Soviet Union once employed the same tactics, as did many other regimes. These measures simply cause distrust and paranoia to spread as the government expects the people to spy on their own family and friends. Your neighbor is now a potential enemy, and your own actions may be considered suspicious.