Category Economic Confidence Model

Nov 17 2023

The 80-Year Cyclical Theory v. the Economic Confidence Model Re-Posted Nov 17, 2023 By Martin Armstrong 


Sixth Wave Economic Confidence Model ECM 309.6

The concept of cycles is becoming accepted in Western culture. Recently, people have been honing in on what they deem the 80-year cyclical theory that marks a major shift in humanity. While this may be true as it takes a few generations to change society, they are not incorporating the additional nuisances associated with the true Economic Confidence Model.

The 80-year theory, also called the Strauss–Howe generational theory, believes that there are four 20-year cycles or turnings that build up to a cataclysmic event. For example, some are using 2024 as the starting point, which brings us back to 1944 when America was at the cusp of World War II. Going back an additional 80 years would bring us to 1864 – the US Civil War. Taking it back even further we arrive at 1784 when the Revolutionary War ended.

Now, absolutely everything is connected, and to garner the most accurate forecasts requires peering out at society and the global economy. The problem with the 80-year theory is that it was developed from a solely American viewpoint as it was designed to explain the history and future of the United States.

1 ECM 2032 Pi Turning Point 1 Annotated

The Economic Confidence Model, at a basic level, sees waves of 8.6 years building in intensity amounting to six waves to construct a major long wave of 51.6 years. What you get at the end of these 51.6-year waves is very profound. After the 1774.95 peak, we end up with a revolution against the monarchy. The next wave peak in 1826.55 produced the Russo-Persian War, 1826-1828, Greek War of Independence, Battle of Monte Santiago between Brazil and Argentina, Mexican Constitution is formed, the Maryland Democratic Party begins creating the confrontation between the Democrats and Republicans (South v North) which sets the stage for the American Civil War in 1861, and even Thomas Jefferson and John Adams both died on the 4th of July 1826 (1826.50) marking the end of the generation of Enlightenment whereas the peak of the wave was July 19th. The next wave 1878 saw the Long Depression which was called the “Great Depression” until 1929-1932. The next wave peak of 1929,75 produced the takeover of the West by socialists. Then the next wave was 1981.35 which marked the peak in interest rates even to the day.

Each of these events shifted society as a whole. Capital concentration shifted in a profound way and changed nations. Nothing exists in isolation. The major wave will be 2032 and this will be followed by the shift from the West to the East in economic power.

Nov 12 2023

Armstrong on Watchdog.COM Re-Posted Nov 12, 2023 By Martin Armstrong


Nov 4 2023

Interview: World War Zeee with Maria Zeee ft. Martin Armstrong Re-Posted Nov 4, 2023 By Martin Armstrong


click here for “World War Zee: Maria Zeee – Martin Armstrong.”

Oct 26 2023

Did Socrates Forecast The Israeli Invasion?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Israel Re-Posted Oct 26, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Socrates appears to have picked the Hamas Attack. There was a double Directional change on the currency for the week of October 2nd and then two more directional changes for the following two weeks. There are rumors that people knew it was coming and were buying Northrop Gruman shares the week before. Am I reading correctly that Socrates picked this up in advance because people were positioning themselves in advance?

SF

ANSWER: This is how Socrates has been forecasting such events. As I have said many times at conferences, I began to understand this back in the 1980s. Those who know of such events start to move the money in advance. Socrates picked up a Double Direction Change the week of September 11th. The previous week was the lowest weekly closing on Northrop Gruman. The main turning point was the week of October 2nd. This showed up in the currency as well, confirming that the target zone was Israel. The same was true looking around at the surrounding economies.

We will address this complex tope at the WEC Nov 17-19th.

Oct 25 2023

The Unfolding Recession & The Coup


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics Re-Posted Oct 25, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mrt. Armstrong, Socrates has been a real lifesaver. It is refreshing not to have someone spinning their political views into everything. Socrates called for the high in GDP here in 2023 and that the high took place in May. Here, we have Biden creating money without regard for fiscal responsibility. Socrates has shown the economy peaked in May. This is truly remarkable. Is this strange situation our fate into 2024?

KL

ANSWER: I understand that Socrates has forecast what is the opposite of every economic theory out there. It shows a recession has been unfolding since May, but this is on the aggregate level. On top of that, we have a Panic Cycle next year in 2024 in GDP. When I drill down into its forecasts per state, what becomes painfully apparent is what I have been writing about. There is a massive migration from blue states to red states initiated by COVID-19 but accelerated by tax increases. Thus, real estate is declining in the blue states, and those who didn’t want to move because of the higher mortgage rates will find their houses unsalable regardless of the mortgage rates. This will be particularly true in New York, Chicago, San Francisco, Seatle, and Los Angeles, to mention a few. They had their chance. With the onslaught of migrants into those areas, those cities are raising taxes to cope with the aliens who pay no taxes.

Add to all of this chaos, Biden’s open border policy has let in terrorist cells, so nobody bothered to check anyone. Geopolitically, starting a war in the Middle East was insane. The Democrats should just admit that the real head of state in Blinkin and his VP is Victoria Nuland. They are the people running the country into the ground. We will see domestic terrorism thanks to the open border, and this time, World War III will be coming to a theater near you.

Then, we have a surge in diseases eradicated in the USA, like TB and malaria. We will also see a rise in diseases, including polio. Even Fed Chairman Powell has broken his silence in criticizing the Biden Administration. He has made it clear that this spending spree is unsustainable.

Climate Change zealots and the Neocons have usurped the Biden Administration. The Democrats are destroying the United States. Politics is so divided and polarized that they refuse to look at and stop the trend. This is not about Democrat v Republican. The United States has undergone a coup, and those in Washington are so caught up in hating each other nobody gives a dam about the country or the people.

The United States has become so divided – it is impossible to survive as one nation. The division is already starting. So, while the Democrats point fingers at the Republicans and they are so desperate to imprison Trump that they will ensure he dies mysteriously like Epstein and so many, there will be nothing left to fight over.

We are facing a recession because the consumer tends to spend less and save whenever there is UNCERTAINTY. Simple as that.

Then, if we end up with wars in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East, Foreign Capital Will Flee to the US

Hence – we have a Panic Cycle warning about two opposite trends.

Oct 21 2023

White House Asks Congress for $106 Billion – $61 Billion for Ukraine, $14 Billion for Israel, $9 Billion for Gaza and Humanitarian Relief


Posted originally on the CTH on October 20, 2023 | Sundance


The people behind Joe Biden have put together a single $106 billion request of financial support intended to force Congress to fund the priorities of the Obama/Biden U.S. foreign policy.

The supplemental appropriations request [SEE HERE] also includes funds to support the continued flow of illegal aliens at the southern border.

WASHINGTON – […] All told, the request includes $61.4 billion for Ukraine, including $44.4 billion to provide Department of Defense equipment for the country, to replenish weapons stocks and to continue providing other military support. The administration is also asking for $14.3 billion for Israel and $9.15 billion for the State Department to provide humanitarian assistance to Ukraine, Israel and Gaza.

[…] In addition to the funds for the two wars, the White House is also asking Congress for $13.6 billion to address migration at the southern border. That includes $6.4 billion for border operations, such as holding facilities, $3.1 billion for additional border agents, $1.4 billion for migrant shelters and services and $1.2 billion to counter fentanyl. (read more)

Oct 18 2023

Why Was the 1987 Crash Important Even for Today


Armstrong Economics Blog/Training Tools Re-Posted Oct 18, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: I watched a pretend analyst who claimed the 1987 Crash was nothing. It is amazing how these people claim to be analysts yet do not understand the first thing about what took place behind the chart. I was there at your WEC in Princeton the weekend of the crash. I don’t remember if it was videoed. If so, you should post that.

Dan

See you in Orlando.

REPLY: Your statement is a sad epitaph on analysis these days. The “pretend analyst” is a Fed watcher who never looks beyond the shore. There is nothing you can do with these people. If they cannot look beyond a domestic economy, they are not analysts – plain & simple. Because I warned them back in 1985 that they would create a crash within 2 years by manipulating the dollar down 40%, when the Crash Came in 1987, that is when they were forced to call me.

When they began to realize that lowering the dollar by 40% also created a bear market in US assets for foreign investors, including US debt, they held the Louve Accord.  Yet, look closely at the chart. The dollar had already bun its decline. It had nothing to do with the central banks. Those in charge know less than the average investor. They proceed, always assuming they have power – but over what they do not comprehend.

They then announced that the dollar had fallen far enough. When the dollar continued to decline, that is when the market realized that the CENTRAL BANKS COULD NOT CONTROL THE WORLD ECONOMY. Once that took place, that is what unfolded as the 1987 Crash. My biggest accomplishment was to persuade the Brady Commission not to impose restrictions on the market when the formation of the G5 created the crisis. But the government will NEVER blame itself. The most significant accomplishment I was able to do was to get the Brady Commission to at least imply that foreign exchange had something to do with it.

The lesson of 1987 is NOT in the chart. It is behind the chart. Once the public realized that the central banks were not actually in control, that is when the panic took place. Today, when interest rates rise without the Fed’s actions because of the Neocons constantly threatening the world and China over Taiwan, that is when panic will strike. It all goes nuts once people realize that the government is just a ship of fools with ZERO sailing experience. That is when gold will break out. It is that CRACK IN CONFIDENCE that will cause the panic.

That is the Significance of the 1987 Crash

Oct 16 2023

History Repeating All Over Again


Armstrong Economics Blog/Europe’s Economic History Re-Posted Oct 12, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The 1848 Berlin Revolution

QUESTION: You have mentioned that the 1848 Communist Revolution that swept all of Europe was a political contagion. Am I correct in assuming this is what you suggest comes post 2024 going in 2032?

Paul

The French 1848 Revolution

ANSWER: Yes. We all have heard of the 1846 -1852 Great Hunger/Great Irish Potato Famine. This Great Hunger was not confined to Ireland. It hit all of Europe, and this was a significant influence in promoting the Communist Revolution of 1848 that swept Europe. The 1848 Revolutions in Europe were unique, for they were a contagion. Neither the French Revolution of 1789, the July Revolution of 1830, the Paris Commune Uprising of 1870, nor the Russian Revolutions of 1905 and 1917 sparked a comparable transcontinental cascade as that of 1848 that swept Europe, including Romania. What is often overlooked is that this came on the heels of a major famine that killed millions- the Great Hunger.

The parallel with prosecuting Trump also existed, where they executed a German politician for supporting the 1848 Revolution. Robert Blum (1807–1848) was a German democratic politician, a publisher, and a revolutionary spirit. He was also a member of the National Assembly of 1848. He fought for a unified Germany and opposed what was happening then, the same thing unfolding today. He argued that no people should rule over another – that is, Prussia. Back then, Prussia was protestant, and they sought to overrule the Catholics of Bavaria. Today, the LEFT assumes seizing power, and they get to force their agenda upon everyone else. That is neither how Democracy works, and it is specific against the very purpose of civilization, where everyone benefits by joining together.

Hence, Blum was also an opponent of the Prussian occupation of Poland.  Blum also was against the rise of this idea of an ancient Arian race, and as such, he opposed the movement toward antisemitism. He supported the Southern German Catholic sect of Bavaria. He even argued for the equality of the sexes, which was ahead of his time.

Blum claimed immunity as a member of the National Assembly who, under the law, could not be prosecuted for his political position. That principle should have applied to Trump on January 6th. They were clever and had him arrested during a stay in Vienna, Austria, and this being a German politician was not recognized as an immunity outside of Germany. They naturally found him guilty and ordered his execution for his role in the Revolutions of 1848 in the German states.

The ex-CIA Chief has called for the execution of Donald Trump. That would save the CIA from having to assassinate Trump if he wins the election and blame some Mexicans this time. Trump now knows the game. There is no way the Neocons, FBI, CIA, and institutionalized career politicians, including the uni-party RINOS, will ever follow any order of Trump. They are blocking even RFK because he is also an outsider. How dare these people think they can be voted in to change government?

This is this coalition of anti-American actors’ last stand, and they are not about to lose control in 2024. We are staring into the eyes of some of the most evil people on the face of the Earth. They can taste power and lick their lips over the thought of defeating Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, Syria, and the Palestinians. From their perspective, this is their time.

Welcome to how history repeats and the Revolutionary Cycle as we move into 2032.

This Will Be A Global Contagion as was 1848

Oct 14 2023

History Repeating All Over Again and Again


Armstrong Economics Blog/Europe’s Economic History Re-Posted Oct 12, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The 1848 Berlin Revolution

QUESTION: You have mentioned that the 1848 Communist Revolution that swept all of Europe was a political contagion. Am I correct in assuming this is what you suggest comes post 2024 going in 2032?

Paul

The French 1848 Revolution

ANSWER: Yes. We all have heard of the 1846 -1852 Great Hunger/Great Irish Potato Famine. This Great Hunger was not confined to Ireland. It hit all of Europe, and this was a significant influence in promoting the Communist Revolution of 1848 that swept Europe. The 1848 Revolutions in Europe were unique, for they were a contagion. Neither the French Revolution of 1789, the July Revolution of 1830, the Paris Commune Uprising of 1870, nor the Russian Revolutions of 1905 and 1917 sparked a comparable transcontinental cascade as that of 1848 that swept Europe, including Romania. What is often overlooked is that this came on the heels of a major famine that killed millions- the Great Hunger.

The parallel with prosecuting Trump also existed, where they executed a German politician for supporting the 1848 Revolution. Robert Blum (1807–1848) was a German democratic politician, a publisher, and a revolutionary spirit. He was also a member of the National Assembly of 1848. He fought for a unified Germany and opposed what was happening then, the same thing unfolding today. He argued that no people should rule over another – that is, Prussia. Back then, Prussia was protestant, and they sought to overrule the Catholics of Bavaria. Today, the LEFT assumes seizing power, and they get to force their agenda upon everyone else. That is neither how Democracy works, and it is specific against the very purpose of civilization, where everyone benefits by joining together.

Hence, Blum was also an opponent of the Prussian occupation of Poland.  Blum also was against the rise of this idea of an ancient Arian race, and as such, he opposed the movement toward antisemitism. He supported the Southern German Catholic sect of Bavaria. He even argued for the equality of the sexes, which was ahead of his time.

Blum claimed immunity as a member of the National Assembly who, under the law, could not be prosecuted for his political position. That principle should have applied to Trump on January 6th. They were clever and had him arrested during a stay in Vienna, Austria, and this being a German politician was not recognized as an immunity outside of Germany. They naturally found him guilty and ordered his execution for his role in the Revolutions of 1848 in the German states.

The ex-CIA Chief has called for the execution of Donald Trump. That would save the CIA from having to assassinate Trump if he wins the election and blame some Mexicans this time. Trump now knows the game. There is no way the Neocons, FBI, CIA, and institutionalized career politicians, including the uni-party RINOS, will ever follow any order of Trump. They are blocking even RFK because he is also an outsider. How dare these people think they can be voted in to change government?

This is this coalition of anti-American actors’ last stand, and they are not about to lose control in 2024. We are staring into the eyes of some of the most evil people on the face of the Earth. They can taste power and lick their lips over the thought of defeating Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, Syria, and the Palestinians. From their perspective, this is their time.

Welcome to how history repeats and the Revolutionary Cycle as we move into 2032.

This Will Be A Global Contagion as was 1848

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Sep 25 2023

Sunday Trivia – Did You Ever Notice The Lyrics


Posted originally on the CTH on September 24, 2023 | Sundance 

R.E.M is a band from Georgia.  This song was written in 1987.  Did you ever notice the lyrics?

https://youtube.com/watch?v=Z0GFRcFm-aY%3Ffeature%3Doembed

That’s great, it starts with an earthquake,
Birds and snakes, an aeroplane
Lenny Bruce is not afraid.

Eye of a hurricane,
Listen to yourself churn
World serves its own needs,
Regardless of your own needs.
Feed it up a knock, speed,
Grunt no, strength no.
Ladder structure clatter with fear of height, down height.
Wire in a fire, represent the seven games
In a government for hire
And a combat site.
Left her, wasn’t coming in a hurry with the furries
Breathing down your neck.
Team by team reporters baffled, Trump, tethered crop.
Look at that low plane!
Fine then.
Uh oh, overflow, population, common group, but it’ll do.
Save yourself,
Serve yourself.
World serves its own needs,
Listen to your heart bleed. Tell me with the rapture and the
Reverent in the right
Right.
You vitriolic, patriotic, slam, fight, bright
Light, feeling pretty psyched.

It’s the end of the world as we know it.
It’s the end of the world as we know it.
It’s the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine.