I have told the story before that when I was doing my reach early on at Princeton University’s Firestone Library, I became friends with a professor who had known Einstein who taught there. He said to me that I reminded him of Einstein. I was shocked because I was not making new theories in Physics. He explained that the subject matter did not matter. It was my curiosity in trying to figure out how empires rose and fell that inspired me.
He said that Einstein always said we will discover nothing unless we are curious. I came to understand that was the very reason Communism collapsed. They tried to eliminate the business cycle under Marxism and, in the process, reduce humanity to zombie drones denied free thought and stripped of curiosity. Thus, Communism fell by its own weight. There are those spreading the same nonsense that always begins with “equality” and the great divide in wealth. If we all have the same wealth, you destroy the very essential element of how society advances through the ages.
In all my studies, that statement to me about curiosity opened the door to understanding how society advances and declines. Schumpeter saw the boom and bust of the economy as waves of creative destruction. The invention of the combustion engine and the car’s development destroyed the horse and buggy industry, allowing the suburbs around cities to expand. This is Henry Ford in his first car, built in 1903. If it were not for his curiosity, we would have been in 15-minute cities riding our chariots through the streets, and the climate zealots would be arguing to kill all the horses for they are causing climate change as if the climate is supposed to never change.
A Florida sixth grader, Lauren Arrington, has leaped into scientific fame with a startling discovery that could redefine our approach to invasive lionfish. She caught one in freshwater, where it was not supposed to survive. She conducted her own experiment, gradually reducing the salt in the water, and the fish survived. This has been a groundbreaking discovery that demonstrates how important curiosity truly is. We will discover NOTHING without it.
Encourage your children always to be curious.
That is the key to how society advances in the business cycle. Everything depends on it.
Congratulations Lauren. You will go far in life. Retain that Curiosity no matter what.
We Desperately will need it in this world of Equality.
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, We met when you came to lecture here in Poland. Everything you warned about has unfolded right down to a dollar high in 2022, followed by a low in 2023. The majority now are against the government. We, too, fear that the election may be rigged later this year. Putting all these troops on the border with Ukraine, which includes 40,000 Americans, has raised grave concerns that our government will cross the border in hopes of getting Russia to attack our troops to justify NATO invoking Article V. Some are starting to wonder if our government needs to get Russia to attack us to suspend elections as Zelensky has done in Ukraine.
What do you see for Poland ahead?
Aleksy
ANSWER: Yes, it has been quite a while. Thank you for recommending Krakow. It was beautiful. Loved the architecture and vast square. I know the concerns there about the upcoming elections. We have a Panic Cycle in November. I am also aware of the idea of Polish troops crossing the border and taking the Western portion of Ukraine, which used to be their territory. Putin has warned about this, but the Western press calls it misinformation and Russian propaganda. Then you have Yevgeny Prigozhin in Belarus with his eyes on Poland. Your government is indeed pushing the envelope.
The risk remains that the greenback will rise into 2027, which seems to be more on the threat of war. You have Poland, Lithuania, and Estonia with severe concerns about Russia retaking the region. The Russian people are not really interested in that. Much of that propaganda has been spread by the ISW and NATO, which is desperate to remain relevant.
I think Zelensky’s days are numbered. If he is assassinated, it will be for what he has done to Ukraine. The social media in Ukraine shows funerals and images of the dead. The kill ratio is 5 Ukrainian soldiers to even one Russian and that comes from Ukraine – not Russia.
Ukraine is losing badly. That is my concern that the Polish/American Troops will cross the border begging for Russia to attack them so they can indeed invoke Article V. The share market is going to roll over. Closing below last week’s low should spark a correction, and the volatility should start next week.
Insofar as this election being rigged, I appreciate the concern. Poland will reach a critical turning point on October 26th, 2023, which is now 34 years from the overthrow of communism on June 4th, 1989. There should be a shift in politics; ideally, the present government should lose. That remains to be seen.
We seem to be begging to start another proxy war against Russia in the middle of Africa. There was a coup overthrowing the government, and you have people chanting chanting “Wagner” and raising Russian flags. The whole problem has been the Neocons and their private propaganda machine, the ISW, keep projecting that Russia is weak and they can take it down. Russia can manufacture all the weapons it needs, and it is one of the wealthiest countries on the planet regarding natural resources. These people are putting out fake news to encourage war, telling everyone the West can win.
This is more akin to the US Civil War, where the North had all the capacity to manufacture weapons, and the South had been primarily an agrarian society. The South needed money and supplies from Europe.
Secretary of State William Henry Seward (1801–1872) for the North was deeply concerned that no foreign nation would intervene in the conflict on behalf of the Confederacy. Russia came to Seward’s aid to protect the US from a European invasion. Russia sent its warships to protect New York City and San Francisco in 1863 against the British and French, who perhaps considered the American Civil War an opportunity to conquer the United States.
In contrast, the Confederate diplomats desperately attempted to convince the stronger European countries to come to their aid and intercede on their behalf. These diplomats were successful in helping to convince Great Britain and France, two European countries that had much at stake in the outcome of the American conflict, to legally confer belligerent status upon the Confederacy, which recognized it as a nation engaged in war. In other words, they recognized the South as independent. In contrast, today, the West refuses to grant that to the Donbas in Ukraine despite the Minsk Agreement and the fact that the people there are Russian, while Ukraine outlaws their language and their religion.
In fact, Abraham Lincoln drew his Emancipation Proclamation taking the actions of Tsar Alexander II (b: 1818; 1855–1881), who issued his own Emancipation Manifesto on March 3rd, 1861, emancipating 23 million Russian serfs. American abolitionists cheered his action and pushed for Lincoln to do the same, which he finally did on January 1st, 1863. Russians were actually shocked when the American states descended into armed conflict over the issue. In Russia, the serf owned nothing, and they were not happy. They embraced Marxism, and the first Russian Revolution followed in 1905, 43 years later (8.6/2).
Martin Armstrong joins us today. We’ll talk about the real motivations behind the war in the Ukraine and the future of fiat (paper) currency and why tangible assets like gold and silver should be considered as part of your financial planning.
QUESTION: Hello Martin. I’ve been a long-time follower and one of the first subscribers to Socrates “Basic.” Your information is always valuable! I’d classify myself as a retired, middle class fellow, who has put away enough funds to be comfortable. But, I got very uncomfortable when you just posted “We cannot rule out the Biden Administration canceling the dollar before the 2024 election.” My fears for myself and my family are being caught offguard in investment, location, and security. I can’t afford going to your annual events; would you consider a large treatise or book on how to survive in the middle class?
LC
ANSWER: These are the next two books. The first, Modern Analysis for the 21st Century, dives into technical analysis and why fundamental analysis has been so wrong. I am trying to make an authoritative work that perhaps after I am dead will force academia to change the course of its methodology, particularly in economic analysis. The Geometry of Time will deal with cyclical analysis. I think we are all here for some purpose and then we get to leave. I hope this is what I leave behind.
COMMENT: Hi Mr. Armstrong, Here is the full version of that short video you posted about Pi. In it, he makes the statement “Where ever there is Pi, there is a hidden circle.” Interesting thought in regards to Pi and the ECM.
COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I have been impressed by your Economic Confidence Model. You said there would be no recession until after 2024. You were really the only one who said that. Now Bloomberg reported that the forecasters who “were first out of the box to predict a US recession” are now hedging their bets. They mention Deutsche Bank Vice Chair of Research Peter Hooper and Fannie Mae chief economist Doug Duncan. However, Nomura Securities International senior economist Aichi Amemiya still says a recession is coming, but “it’s getting to be a close call.”
Not one of the significant houses seems ever to get it right. I just wanted to say your model shines a light on the whole analysis field. I can’t wait for your Geometry of Time.
DF
REPLY: Thank you. It has been a most interesting experience. As I said, this is something I bumped into. I did not go looking for such a model. It was something that found me, as many say it was my destiny, even growing up in a house with the address of 314 South Lippincott Ave, in Maple Shade, New Jersey.
These are the books I am trying to get out this year. The Geometry of Time will be next year. The Mark Anthony book should be on Amazon and Barnes & Noble in a couple of weeks. That is, using the coinage to demonstrate what the real story is behind Cleopatra. She was certainly not black as NETFLIX presented to rewrite history for the WOKE agenda. This is very similar to the USA using Ukraine in a proxy war to destroy Russia. Here, Cleopatra funded a war that the coinage was so massive; it still accounted for 20% of the money supply 100 years later.
The Modern Analysis is nearly finished. This goes precisely to the subject you have brought up. This is a reference book on my version of technical analysis, which is different from the mainstream, but it goes into the whole problem of analysis used by academics, which is blinding us to the reality of our actions.
The De-Dolarization demonstrates how this entire nonsense that hyperinflation is caused by just increasing the money supply, which is like saying the Great Depression took place simply because the stock market went down. Here too, the lack of any real investigative analysis has doomed the Eurozone because of the distorted view of the real cause of hyperinflation.
The Geometry of Time will be the companion to Modern Analysis for the 21st Century. This will deal with cycles from the how to the why. It has been academia’s refusal to embrace cyclical analysis and any form of technical analysis that prevent any worthwhile forecasting. This is why people like Larry Summers admit they cannot forecast the economy’s future.
All we hear is the same claims that the dollar is dead and it will be totally worthless any day now. Over the last few weeks, all we hear from the majority now is that the dollar is finished. Virtually every page you turn or site you visit claims the death of the dollar. They are calling this the de-dollarization of the world economy and that the future of the US dollar as well as the American empire itself is now collapsing. The general claim is that the group of economically-aligned nations known collectively as BRICS is a major threat to the greenback. That was the same story we heard about the Euro back in 1997.
As their scenario goes, the BRICS [Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa] have moved to form an anti-dollar colation and Saudi Arabia is considering jumping on board. They insist that once that happens, the “petrodollar” will die and cease to be a reserve currency.
This is then followed by the forecast that the economy will suffer and that any bounce in exports will be short-lived simply because the dollar will be dead for the long term. Of course, this has been the favorite forecast that they keep putting out since Bretton Woods collapsed. They were wrong back then for the dollar rose between 1972 and 1976 against the British pound, with the collapse of Bretton Woods. To try to explain why the dollar did not collapse, that is when they claimed that the dollar was backed now by oil rather than gold. That was just an excuse as always to cover up their wrong forecast.
They sold that story to Newsweek and now the dollar rally was because of oil which replace gold. Suddenly the dollar became de facto backed by oil. They needed an explanation to explain why all the old theories were wrong. They sold this theory and it made the front cover of Newsweek. Everyone said YES! That must be the reason. OPEC priced oil in dollars! Naturally, everything was priced in dollars because, under the fixed exchange rate of Bretton Woods, everything from wheat and corn to copper and gold was all priced in dollars.
Now they are saying the American empire is threatened by the potential commercial real estate collapse and the BRICS anti-dollar venture. So they are forecasting a great depression-style crash is possible in the not-too-distant future. They spin this to forecast the end of the America Empire. The London FT, always anti-American/Pro WEF, reports that the dollar as a reserve currency has declined from 73% in 2001 to around 55% by 2021. Yet the FT did state an obvious fact:
“But if you are a reserve-rich central bank elsewhere that isn’t going to be a lot of comfort. Moreover, would you really feel more comfortable in, say, the renminbi? Even if it was fully convertible and liquid, would you honestly feel more sure that Beijing will behave lawfully than DC? The dollar still looks like the proverbial least dirty shirt in the closet.”
COVID actually has played a major role in shifting the world economy. In 2020, the US economy was 24.75% of the world’s GDP. By the start of 2022, it had fallen marginally to 24.15%. What these dollar-forecasting jockeys do not understand, is that if they were correct and the dollar collapsed, then the very BRICS would collapse even further. Economically speaking, when the United States gets a head cold, the rest of the world catches ammonia. You can’t have it both ways. The strength of the dollar is not gold or oil, it is the American consumer.
The risk to the entire world is runaway inflation thanks to Biden pouring untold amounts of money into the black hole known as Ukraine. The Neocons, who control Biden, are planning to launch a war against Russia and China before 2024. This will only continue to accelerate inflation. That reduces the spending power of the American consumer and in the process, the US economic growth declines in real terms and with it, the rest of the world plunges into recession.
While Macron has figured it out that the Neocons are in charge of US foreign policy and he is telling Europe to stop being the puppet of the USA, that all sounds nice but Europe is marching into war with Russia. NATO is firmly in control of the American Neocons and they need war or face losing power. With Trump in the lead, they must stop him at all costs for he is anti-war, would haul the Neocons out by the necks, and defund NATO, as well as stop the climate change agenda.
The US dollar in the global economy has been supported by the size and strength of the US consumer-based economy. Its stability and openness to trade and capital flows without restrictions and it has never been canceled, are the major foundation of the dollar in addition to strong property rights and the rule of law. That is why Russians and Chinese buy US property for they are secure in their ownership of US property which cannot always be guaranteed outside the US.
Consequently, the depth and liquidity of US financial markets remain unmatched. For institutions parking billions, the United States represents a large supply of extremely safe dollar-denominated assets. Are they really going to switch to China or buy debt from Brazil? Not a single institutional client will take that bait.
China has been divesting of dollar reserves because it KNOWS that the American Neocons want war. You do not fund your adversary who intends to wage war against you. China cannot shift reserve assets to Europe or Japan. They have been buying gold because it is geopolitically neutral territory. They are NOT buying gold as an investor thinking it will rally. That is irrelevant. If gold drops 25%, that does not translate into them becoming a seller.
The dollar in international reserves stood at 60+% at the start of 2022 against the US share of GDP at 24.25%. This comparison belittles the argument that the dollar is finished. Eventually, the US will lose the wars it is starting and the dollar will be replaced perhaps as soon as 2028. The IMF is already licking its lips and rubbing its hands together eager to get control of the reserve currency. But they too will collapse. We have a Directional Change next year and a Panic Cycle in 2025. So buckle up.!
Remember one thing, even with the debasement and collapse of the Roman Denarius between 260AD and 268AD, it still took 224 years for Rome to completely collapse. When war breaks out, capital flight will still be to the dollar. It will not be to public assets, but private. The United States is still supporting the entire world economy. The BRICS need the US consumer to keep their economies functioning. All this talk of the dollar being finished is really nonsense. That day will come, but when the US consumer no longer buys.
Remember 1997? The Euro was going to dethrone the dollar. They claimed the new EU will be a bigger economy than the US. The problem was, they lacked a consumer economy, and low taxes, and they routinely canceled their currency to force people to pay taxes. It is always the same story over and over again.
I have created this site to help people have fun in the kitchen. I write about enjoying life both in and out of my kitchen. Life is short! Make the most of it and enjoy!
This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
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