Category Stagflation

Jul 27 2022

Is Europe Sleepwalking into its Demise?


Armstrong Economics Blog/European Union Re-Posted Jul 27, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

When the Allies crossed the border to invade Germany as WWII came to an end, the German population hung white sheets from the windows to signify their surrender. Just a few years before, the German people were told to celebrate the prospect of dominating Europe as retribution for the punishment they endured because of the war waged by the leaders before. The Prince of Savoy, who inspired the 2nd Amendment to the US Constitution, warned that war was inevitable because kings held standing armies, and they wanted to use them to get their money’s worth.

Today, the people of Europe were told that the euro would cure all things, even gout, and would lead to Europe surpassing the United States economically. They said the euro would kill the dollar once and for all. How dare this upstart country think it could surpass the majesty of Europe with centuries of history to support it.

Yet today, there is growing bewilderment within Europe. Even Germany has slipped into a disoriented state, with its leaders sleepwalking into a dark fate for Europe. World leaders seem to have forgotten everything from history class, or perhaps they cut that one to smoke a joint outside on campus. They have turned the economic success of generations to rebuild Europe into a declining trend pockmarked with rising authoritarianism. These leaders lack any sense of future other than the raw power they seem to cling to.

Even the Germans settled into a comfortable life, climbing to the top of the economic status within the EU and rising from the ashes with hard work. They were told to believe in their own accomplishments and their superiority within Europe and that their economic system was working perfectly. Sadly, the people were induced with success into a trend of self-deception. Leaders preached changing everything to a new Green world with intoxicating visions of saving the planet as a noble deed. The future would be one of zero emissions and tempered population control.

The people are starting to awaken while their leaders are still sleepwalking into their own destruction. Klaus Schwab believes this is the Fourth Industrial Revolution of AI and technology. His 8 points for 2030 are all really about the end of the Financial Age of endless borrowing with no intention of paying it back. It takes curiosity for innovation, not dehumanizing authoritarianism. The very cornerstone of civilization is we come together because it is mutually beneficial to all. Once we enter the world of Marxist Socialism, those in power have used it to divide us into classes and proclaim they are saints. The powerful are always concerned about only our welfare, which justifies their exercise of brute force. The very purpose of civilization has ceased to exist, warning that cyclically, we must crash and burn until we remember once again what makes a civilization great.

It is true that Julius Caesar crossed the Rubicon on January 10, 49 BC (49.02) to purge the corruption in the Republic, but corruption resurfaced. Because he forgave his enemies, they conspired and assassinated him on the Ides of March 44 BC (44.20), just 4.82 years later (250.6 weeks, 62 months). That resulted in another civil war and then the defeat of Mark Antony and Cleopatra at the Battle of Actium in 31 BC. Octavian became emperor officially with the title Augustus on January 16, 27 BC (27.04). The Julian Claudian dynasty ended with the death of Nero on June 9, 68 AD (68.43), lasting 95.47 years. Thus, there is never a permanent new era. There are cycles to everything, and forming the EU was also not something that would endure for 1,000 years and more than the Julio-Claudian Dynasty of Rome.

So while fools really think this New World Order will unfold and the dreams of Schwab will be realized, this idea of perpetual borrowing and kicking the can down the road has already come to an end. This is what Schwab is really saying – you will own nothing and be happy. That is foretelling the end of debt-supported government. They are moving on to the Modern Monetary Theory — print what you need when you need it. However, the sudden rise in inflation currently has caused some to question even this new MMT theory.

So as the West thinks it can wage conventional war and defeat Russia to bring it under the new authoritarian control of the United Nations, they are well aware that Ukraine is the MOST corrupt government in the world. Already, weapons handed to them are being stolen and sold on the black market, as took place in Afghanistan. Instead of people cruising around for five-week holidays, the price of gas is at $10 a gallon in Europe. With the increasing threat of war, the future is anything from comfortable. Europe is awakening to realize that guns and soldiers are once again back in demand. The vast industrial production of Germany that sold its products to consumers is staring at its demise, battling with two foes — climate change and war. Germany can no longer rely upon the industriousness of its people as its leaders try to paint a fairytale version of the future.

We warned at the Europe Conference that those who believed that this New World Order would actually unfold were fools. The consolidation of the world under the authority of the United Nations will never succeed. Unfortunately, a lot of people will die trying to bring this dream to fruition as they did the last time Marxism was attempted.

Jul 26 2022

EU Energy Panic Cycle to Begin


Armstrong Economics Blog/Energy Re-Posted Jul 26, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

On August 1, the European Commission will begin to reduce its demand for gas with no alternative in place. Unsurprisingly, our computer states that a Panic Cycle will begin in August or September and go into Q1 of 2023. Europe must reduce its gas consumption by 15% (45 billion cubic meters). In comparison, Russia delivered 150 billion cubic meters to the EU last year. Russia’s largest gas provider, Gazprom, has threatened to cut off Europe from gas entirely. Europe has no alternative solutions at this time. Therefore, they’re implementing a “Save Gas for a Safe Winter” plan in Brussels.

Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen claims that all member states will suffer from their proxy war with Russia, albeit some more than others (e.g., Germany). “It’s important that all member states contribute in the saving, the storing and are ready to share gas,” she said. Let us see how friendly this bloc really is when it comes to sharing an essential resource in limited supply.

Member states are now required to submit energy plans to the Commission by the end of September and update plans every two months until March 2023. There is proposed legislation that would allow the Commission the authority to declare a “Union alert” and impose mandator gas caps on member states.

The bloc plans to fill its gas storage capacities to 80% by November, but that may be a lofty goal. European Commissioner for Energy Kadri Simson expressed pessimism in interviews.  “We risk ending this winter with empty storage, which will be impossible to refill in time for the next heating season,” she warned, as this crisis is only beginning.  Simson and others are calling on the public sector to reduce demand.

This will fall back to the citizens, who will be asked to limit their consumption and abandon comforts for a proxy war they never voted on. Frans Timmermans, the Executive Vice-President of the Commission in charge of the European Green Deal, has already suggested people switch off lights and electrical appliances and reduce AC/heater usage. No one will stop these politicians from flying around on their jets, surrounded by bodyguards in numerous SUVs, while they make the people suffer for their poor policies.

Jul 26 2022

Worldwide Inflation in June 2022


Armstrong Economics Blog/Inflation Re-Posted Jul 26, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

There is a common misconception that the United States has the highest rate of inflation in the world. I see it questioned in numerous emails The United States does have a major problem when it comes to inflation, but its currency has not depreciated to the point where it is weak. Let us compare data on inflation from other nations.

According to data compiled by Trading Economics, the following countries are suffering the most from runaway inflation as of June 2022:

  1. Lebanon 210%
  2. Zimbabwe 192%
  3. Venezuela 167% (last compiled May 2022)
  4. Sudan 149%
  5. Syria 139% (last compiled in August 2021)
  6. Turkey 62%
  7. Argentina 64%
  8. Suriname 55.6% (last compiled May 2022)
  9. Sri Lanka 54.6%
  10. Iran 52.5%

These depreciated currencies are all but useless at the moment. As we have seen throughout history, the prospect of revolution rises when the people are unable to afford basic needs. Numerous countries on this list are already in the middle of ongoing civil wars and political turmoil. Barter becomes essential as trading goods and services are often the only available option.

Here is how the G20 nations rank as of June 2022:

  1. Turkey 62%
  2. Argentina 64%
  3. Russia 9%
  4. Brazil 89%
  5. Spain 2%
  6. United Kingdom 9.4%
  7. United States 9.1%
  8. Euro Area 8.6%
  9. Netherlands 8.6 %
  10. Canada 8.1%
  11. Italy 8%
  12. Mexico 99%
  13. Germany 7.6%
  14. South Africa 7.4%
  15. India 7.01%
  16. Singapore 6.7%
  17. South Korea 6%
  18. France 8%
  19. Australia 5.1% (compiled in March 2022)
  20. Indonesia 4.35%
  21. Switzerland 3.4%
  22. China 2.5%
  23. Japan 2.4%
  24. Saudi Arabia 2.3%

Turkey tried but failed to gain access into the EU and swap its lira for the euro. They would have been in insurmountable debt regardless, but their initial attempt failed. Is it any wonder that Turkey is trying its best to keep diplomatic relations with both the West and Russia amid the proxy war? They cannot afford to lose trading partners and have failed to impose tough sanctions on Russia. Turkey enjoys its NATO status but attempted to block Finland and Sweden from joining. They cited their reasoning as those countries supported Anti-Turkish terrorist groups, but part of the reason was not to anger Russia.

All of the other G20 nations are experiencing high inflation, none at the common 2% target, but some are faring much better than others as they are not involved in the ongoing proxy war and have maintained strong trade. The US sitting at 9.1% is alarming. As I have warned, other nations will fold before the US as the dollar remains unchallenged.

Jul 26 2022

Weber Manufacturing Announces Layoffs Due to Collapsed Sales, U.S. Economy Shrinking, CEO Resigns


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 26, 2022 | Sundance

It is only one U.S. company; however, the makers of Weber Grills and products released their sales data, and the background shows a severe economic contraction that has resulted in their operating loss of $51 million in the quarter that ended March 31, 2022.  NOTE THE DATE.

July 25 (Reuters) – Weber Inc (WEBR.N) on Monday replaced top boss Chris Scherzinger with an insider and warned that mounting inflationary and supply chain pressures could hit the grill maker’s financials and workforce, sending its shares down 20% in premarket trading.

The company withdrew its fiscal 2022 net sales and core earnings forecasts, saying higher consumer prices and geopolitical uncertainty were squeezing store traffic as well as margins.

Weber, which also suspended its quarterly cash dividend, said it was pursuing a number of initiatives, which may include job cuts, reducing expenses and tightening its inventory levels.

The company also forecast a net loss for the quarter ending June 30, citing weak store traffic and higher discounting. In the quarter ended March 31, Weber’s net sales decreased 7% and net loss came in at $51 million compared with a net income last year. (read more)

Weber is a good company with strong fundamental products.  Unfortunately, the layoffs that are likely to soon surface are not going to be isolated to Weber.  The contraction of economic activity is going to start surfacing in the balance sheets of multiple companies this quarter.

We can expect to see a bloodbath of employment layoffs in this quarter (July, Aug, Sept) at the same time as the federal reserve continues to raise interest rates to support the new energy “transition.”

As noted in Weber’s financials, the consumer contraction started escalating more than six months ago.  Companies can only hide a severe drop in income for a short period, and then eventually cost-cutting decisions must be made.

Jul 24 2022

Interview: 2023 Will Be the Year from Hell


Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Jul 24, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

I’ve warned that 2023 will be the year from hell. Watch the video above to learn more, or click here to access USAWatchdog’s website.

Jul 24 2022

WHO Leader Declares Monkeypox Global Health Emergency, Despite Majority of WHO Panel Experts Saying No to Emergency


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 23, 2022 | sundance


World Health Organization Director-General, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, declared a global health emergency for monkeypox today despite a majority of the assembled panel of experts voting 9-6 not to declare a global health emergency.

July 23 (Reuters) – The rapidly spreading monkeypox outbreak represents a global health emergency, the World Health Organization’s highest level of alert, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Saturday.

The WHO label – a “public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC)” – is designed to trigger a coordinated international response and could unlock funding to collaborate on sharing vaccines and treatments.

Members of an expert committee that met on Thursday to discuss the potential recommendation were split on the decision, with nine members against and six in favour of the declaration, prompting Tedros himself to break the deadlock, he told reporters.

“Although I am declaring a public health emergency of international concern, for the moment this is an outbreak that is concentrated among men who have sex with men, especially those with multiple sexual partners,” Tedros told a media briefing in Geneva. (read more)

Jul 24 2022

Mysterious Missiles Strike Grain Facility at Ukraine Port One Day After Russia and Ukraine Sign Grain Export Deal


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 23, 2022 | sundance 

Let me say from the outset, with a degree of specific assurance we generally reserve for other matters, Russia had nothing to do with the targeting of a grain facility in the port city of Odesa.  Geopolitically and strategically, such an action would be against their interests.  These events have the smell of the U.S. State Dept and CIA all over them.

Start by first reviewing the agreement between Russia and Ukraine that was announced yesterday. July 22 (Reuters) – Russia and Ukraine signed a landmark deal on Friday to reopen Ukrainian Black Sea ports for grain exports, raising hopes that an international food crisis … can be eased.”   NATO country Turkey, specifically Recep Erdogan, brokered the deal between Russia and Ukraine.  Ignore the narrative engineering and WATCH:

Russia was particularly a geopolitical beneficiary from the agreement itself.  No longer could NATO and the western alliance blame Russia for the void in gobal food markets associated with the conflict in Ukraine.

From the perspective of Russian President Putin, the grain movement through the port city of Odesa was a net benefit.  “Russia has taken on the obligations that are clearly spelled out in this document. We will not take advantage of the fact that the ports will be cleared and opened. We have made this commitment,” said Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

However, from the perspective of the Western alliance, the agreement mooted one of their biggest justifications for the upcoming global food shortage.   If Ukraine and Russia are exporting food, and yet food costs are still rising…. well, the food shortage impact from western energy disruption, the Build Back Better agenda, starts to become increasingly visible.

Suddenly, within hours of the trade agreement, the grain transportation system and the port city of Odesa come under fire from mysterious cruise missiles.

Europe – Missiles struck a key Ukrainian port Saturday, just one day after Kyiv and Moscow signed a breakthrough deal to unblock shipments of grain. Pointing the finger at Russia, Ukraine’s air force chief said the port — a key site for exporting Ukrainian grain — had been deliberately targeted.

“The port of Odesa, where grain is processed for shipment, was shelled. We shot down two missiles, and two more missiles hit the port territory, where, obviously, there is grain,” Ukrainian air force spokesman Yuri Ignat told reporters.

Russia has denied any involvement in the strikes, says Turkey’s defence minister.

The strike has been “unequivocally condemned” by the UN, alongside EU officials, such as European Commission vice president Josep Borrell, who said it “demonstrates Russia’s total disregard for international law.” (read more)

The origin of the mysterious missile attack becomes clear when you overlay the question of ‘who has motive’?

It wasn’t Russia.

We can be almost certain it was the U.S. State Department, and covert CIA operators, who used their operational control within Ukraine to target the exports.

Stopping the export of Ukrainian grain is in the interests of the western alliance.  After all, it was the United States who previously claimed, “Vladimir Putin is weaponizing food.”…

Apparently, Russian President Vladimir Putin has the ability to drive up U.S. inflation, explode U.S. energy costs, increase gasoline prices, influence global agriculture, weaken U.S. oil refining capability, disrupt availability of diesel fuel, impede the transportation of U.S. goods, force municipal energy companies to raise prices, cancel airline flights, stop the manufacturing of infant formula and now block the production -and increase the cost- of food in North America.

That’s their collective story, and they’re sticking to it.

Jul 23 2022

The LEFT is Violating the Foundation of Law


Armstrong Economics Blog/Human Rights Re-Posted Jul 23, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

There have been some bad decisions by the Supreme Court, such as Dread Scott and allowing the Japanese imprisonment during WWII. But never in the history of the nation has what is unfolding over abortion ever taken place, which is in itself, a confirmation that our computer is forecasting that the United States will separate. It has become impossible to live together. The left just hates the right, and it is always the LEFT, as in the Communist Revolutions, that end up waging war and justify the slaughter of anyone who they disagree with.

The ONLY way to secure the future is to divide the United States between LEFT and RIGHT. There are many who personally have no desire to be an economic slave for policies I do not agree with on an economic and RELIGIOUS basis. Even the progressive tax policies of the left violate the Ten Commandments, which is an affront to the religious beliefs of many.

Equal Rights is precisely that. They somehow are eliminated if it comes to material wealth. An A student should be reduced to a C student because it is not fair that an F student should fail. They should be given a C, so everyone is equal regardless of talent. That worked well for communism.

Ironically, the entire issue of legalizing gay marriage was because of the tax code. Any couple who lives together and contributes to a relationship should be treated the same as a married couple because it is economic equality, be they gay or just a common-law type marriage. It is always the hunt for taxes that creates inequality.

Jul 22 2022

Climate Engineering: 40 Million in US West Without Water in 2023


Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption Re-Posted Jul 22, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Our models have been indicating a decline in both the food and water supply, which go hand-in-hand. Other analysts are coming out to warn that the inevitable cycle is underway. Climate engineering researcher Dane Wigington believes the cycle has been propelled forward by manmade forces. “The mainstream media and official sources are doing their best to sweep it under the rug. We are talking about 40 million people that will be impacted by the drying out of the Colorado River basin and tributaries.”

Interviewer Greg Hunter plainly asked Wigington if this was a deliberate attempt to diminish the population. “Yes,” he replied without hesitation. “There is no speculation, no hypothesis or conjecture in any of this. Climate engineering is the primary cause for the protracted drought, and not just in the U.S. but in many other parts of the world. It also causes a deluge scenario, and all of it is crushing crops. We can speculate to the motives and agendas behind those who run these operations, but the fact that climate engineering is the primary causal factor for the western drought is inarguable.”

Wigington sees extreme water rationing coming as soon as 2023. Once Lake Mead reaches “dead-pool” status, crops will die out, water will be unavailable for irrigation, and there will be no electrical power generation. Drought is causing water to evaporate at levels beyond what is reported in the mainstream media.

“This is a runaway train of total cataclysm, and those in power are preventing anyone from even discussing this issue down to the point that there is an illegal federal gag order on the nation’s weathermen at the National Weather Service and NOAA,” Wigington stated. The government would only place a gag order on reporters if there were something to hide. Climate engineering may be one of the new tools to fight future wars and control the population.

I’m adding this note: Some of this is real the water levels are dropping. Some of the rest is also possible because Bill Gates was testing this idea a while back.

Jul 22 2022

China Banking Crisis & the Unsuspecting World


Armstrong Economics Blog/Interest Rates Re-Posted Jul 22, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

While authorities have accused a private financial group of misleading members of the public with promises of high-return wealth management products, what is not being said publicly is the fact that the rise in the dollar is a significant factor undermining emerging markets in which China participated. The Chinese government warned the provinces and private companies NOT to borrow dollars. Despite the fact that the Chinese government is portrayed as COMMUNIST still in the West, there would be no banking crisis if they were.

Many operations borrowed in dollars made the same fatal mistake I have witnessed since the 1980s. They sell these loans in a foreign currency with the expectation of saving money on interest. But the FX can be 20% to 40% within a 2-year period and there is NEVER any foreign exchange consideration. In addition to this FX crisis, the inexperience of people who think it is easy to be a money manager has discovered the reality of being inexperienced. This is why you find the standard clause in the West – past performance is no guarantee of future success.

Japan is once again the largest holder of US debt. This is NOT because they have been buying more, it is because China is selling off debt gradually because the dollar is high and the risk of war with the United States is rising by the day. Biden has already destroyed the world economy. It is now impossible to repair even if you vote for all Republicans 100%. The destruction of SWIFT has divided the world and has terminated Globalism. China is liquidating US debt gradually and rightly so. Beware of 2023 ahead. The people writing the scripts for Biden are ONLY concerned with climate change and have ZERO experience in geopolitics.

Henry Kissinger has been a critic of Biden on his war effort against Russia and China, or should I say the real president who is writing the scripts. EVERY President since Nixon has invited Henry to the White House EXCEPT Biden. Henry is the best geopolitical analyst I know of. I myself was called by my local Congressman asking me to fly to a meeting. I declined. But I asked why was I being called? I was told there is a serious lack of experience in Washington. I was stunned, to say the least. I have no desire to step into what has become a hateful confrontation in Washington that resembles a high school food fight in the cafeteria.

If you do not have eyes in the back of your head, you better learn how to use a rear-view mirror. The purpose of this blog is to help you to see that we are all connected. The old saying about Chaos Theory was that the flapping of a butterfly’s wings in Thailand can alter the weather cycle in Europe. The slightest alteration can produce a starkly different outcome. This is why I am often a critic with a different view when it comes to governments. Those at the helm are often LINEAR thinkers who see only one cause and effect that produces the future.

It is people like Klaus Schwab who think they are so intelligent that they can actually alter and shape the future. His entire premise of the 4th Industrial Revolution is that he can direct it and control it when creativity cannot be controlled or put on some schedule. A good trader learns from his mistakes. If he never made a mistake, then he will end up in a real crisis for he will assume he is always right and then lose it all.

Life is a learning process. We advance only as we learn and the mother of all invention is our mistakes. Learn well from them, if you wish to survive and stop blaming other people. That is the #1 problem with the goldbugs. They do not seek to understand, but just blame the bankers for why gold has not reached $10,000. They cannot advance because they look at the market objectively. That is a critical factor we learn in this journey we call life.