Tag Archives: BREXIT

Jul 15 2017

Are We Mushrooms being fed Mountains of Manure by Bureaucrats?


Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes

Posted Jul 15, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

 

Government bureaucrats connive ways to gain power as they treat the people like mushrooms — they keep  us in the dark and feed us mountains manure and mainstream media conspire to make sure we remain buried so deep we cannot reach the surface for air. They foam at the mouth of the through of creating a cashless society. The abolition of cash would be absolutely “absurd” and it is interesting how they argue against creating voter ID requirements saying it will prevent minorities from voting because they are backward and do not live in the modern world. As stupid and racist as that argument really is by the left, can you imagine eliminating cash from people who are so backward according to their arguments?

The Bureaucrats love their slogan – “Cash is for Criminals” and will distort every possible instance to support the elimination of cash. There was terrorism and then there was drugs. Eliminate cash, they say, and you will eliminate all crime.

So on the one hand they are against any requirement to prove who you are to vote, but then they want to eliminate cash from people they also claim cannot even find where to get ID in a city. Interesting conflicts.

Jul 14 2017

True AI and Fake Neural Net Forecasting Programs


Armstrong Economics Blog/AI Computers

Re-Posted Jul 14, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Hello Marty,just came across an interesting project called Numerai

with the ambitious goal of creating a hedge fund to manage ALL the money in world(!) in an efficient manner using AI (machine learning, neural networks and whatever the data scientists can come up with).

At the core of this project is the historical data made accessible for free to the data scientists in encrypted form, but still usable since the structure is still there. The data scientists then compete with their AI methods against each other in auctions when evaluating their methods on a to them at auction time unknown validation set (latest data set).

The hedge fund will be the combination of the best AI methods driven in a purely evolutionary fashion with the purpose to allocate the money to where it is needed best. A nice feature is that the AI methods developed and put to use by a data scientist can be kept secret from the other data scientists and the hedge fund itself, The data scientist only needs to make the output of the AI algorithm available, pretty much like you do with Socrates :-).

The data scientist can always take his/her algorithm elsewhere if not happy with the hedge fund.

I think this sounds like a really innovative idea, but there might be some pitfalls that you would be able to highlight. For example I would expect your Socrates database to bigger than the Numerais at the moment.

Best Regards

/M

ANSWER: The problem with such a project is that the best of genius will fail. The complexity of the markets globally is far beyond description. Even the Global Market Watch is best in the financial main markets and less in agriculture and individual stocks. Why? It is all complexity. The GMW has now exceeded 150,000 possible patterns each day and counting. I just uploaded the latest 6 months of creation of patterns. It has blown my mind looking at what it has done. Moves greater than 40% on the upside it reclassified as phase transitions.
I have experimented with Neural Nets and other interesting attempts to recreate the structure of the human mind. Neural Nets are notoriously subject to complete failures. There is no such program that has been able to demonstrate consistency. This is all due to complexity.
The effort to create option models known as Black–Scholes completely broken down and resulted in the Long-Term Capital Management debacle. That was covered in the book – When Genius Failed. The failure took place because they did not have the database. They only tested the algorithm back to 1971.
There is no such computer model that can possible accomplish that and quite frankly anyone claiming to have some Neural Net Artificial Intelligence you should beware because it is just a sales pitch. Ask who wrote the code. You will find no real system other than a simple expert system based upon IF this THEN that ELSE expect this.
I was recently approached with a plea to buy into our technology by a very major company offering unlimited resources to help expand it to all sectors. I must admit, that is an interesting concept.
Anyone who claims to have such a system is pulling a sales promotion. You cannot rely upon a program to forecast the future on the cheap without a profound and in-depth database. The British Pound for example, all the data even in major data banks go back to 1971 and many only on a monthly closing basis. You cannot forecast trends without the full picture. A computer will not be able to learn all scenarios if the data does not cover all scenarios. Plain and simple. Just ask – SHOW ME THE DATA and WHERE DID YOU GET IT? 
Jul 14 2017

The Dow & the Future


Armstrong Economics Blog/Dow Jones

Re-Posted Jul 14, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong,

I am fascinated by what you have accomplished in this model. You mentioned in your post about the Orlando conference a sling shot and phase transition, and I am trying to comprehend what that would look like exactly. Is that to say the DJIA wont complete its advance from 2015.75 to 2018,but that the cycle inversion underlying this market and the ECM will extend the high into 2020? When will the special report on these issues be released?

Thank you for the invaluable education,

NE

 

ANSWER: Yes. We can see from the Global Market Watch that the current year if it closed right here would imply a temporary high. That can change since it is based upon a dynamic view assuming each day that passes were the last trading day of the year. Nevertheless, it warns that we must stay on point.

There are two separate objectives – TIME and PRICE. With regard to PRICE, our three targets given back in 2011 were 18500, 23000, and 40,000. The minimum TIME objective was 2016/2017. Our next target in TIME becomes 2020 followed by 2022. This appears to be setting up for a major vertical move. This is why we will be reviewing how to trade a vertical market.

 

 

The markets are far more precise than anyone could have ever imagined. It is unfortunate that the analytical field is plagued by people pretending to be prophets or gurus like the old snake-oil medicine salesmen of the 19th century. Nobody can forecast anything from as personal opinion perspective on a consistent basis. Sure, everyone can make a single forecasting call based upon a gut feeling. But they cannot accomplish that on any consistent basis. This is all about a journey into a world of hidden order – the chaos theory. It is not being a prophet, guru or physic. Such titles reduce the analyst to a snake-oil salesman.

Jul 13 2017

Illinois Should Just Be Dissolved as the Solution


Armstrong Economics Blog/Sovereign Debt Crisis

Re-Posted Jul 13, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

John Kass of the Chicago Tribune has come out with a blunt article, yet it is the only possible solution since the government is effectively just bankrupt with no hope of recovery. He writes:

“Illinois is like Venezuela now, a fiscally broken state that has lost its will to live, although for the moment, we still have enough toilet paper.

But before we run out of the essentials, let’s finally admit that after decade upon decade of taxing and spending and borrowing, Illinois has finally run out of other people’s money.”

To comprehend what is happening, all we need do is understand that socialism has really been about government helping themselves to other people’s money for their personal benefit. Their constitution set that government pensions come before everything else. How is that helping the poor to paying their debts? The greed of the employees of Illinois has pushed the State to beyond the point of no return. The constitution can only be amended to deny future employees pension. It cannot be altered to deal with the quarter-trillion owed to state employee pension funds. There really is no way out and it because questionable if Illinois can even simply go bankrupt when it is constitutionally owed. So Kass’ solution may sound insane, but it is probably the only way to deal with the crisis – tear-up the state as a state and dissolve it entirely. Krass wrote:

Dissolve Illinois. Decommission the state, tear up the charter, whatever the legal mumbo-jumbo, just end the whole dang thing.

We just disappear. With no pain. That’s right. You heard me.

The best thing to do is to break Illinois into pieces right now. Just wipe us off the map. Cut us out of America’s heartland and let neighboring states carve us up and take the best chunks for themselves.

The group that will scream the loudest is the state’s political class, who did this to us, and the big bond creditors, who are whispering talk of bankruptcy and asset forfeiture to save their own skins.

This is the reality we face going forward. I have stressed get out of all government debt in the state and local level and buy NO MORE!!!!! The party is over!

Jul 13 2017

Germany Begins to Censor the Internet


Armstrong Economics Blog/Germany

Posted Jul 13, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Merkel’s attempt to silence any internet site that disagrees with her government seems to be the resurrection of the idea of East Germany where she grew up. Freedom of speech was outlawed. When I went behind the Berlin Wall, people would speak freely only when nobody else was close enough to listen. Today they have listening devices that can be pointed at you for 100 yards away. Trying to visit certain sites in Germany you will see this pop-up warning from the government. This is very disturbing and inconsistent as it seems to be a very desperate measure by a government that welcomed refugees.

Signs of this is what unfortunately we are facing. As government mismanagement comes to a boil, they become increasingly desperate to retain power. This is yet another sign of the times that what we are facing is the collapse of government. If everything was fine, they would not care what you have to say. The mere fact that we are looking at this crisis in government is why we suddenly see outright censorship now appearing on the internet.

Jul 13 2017

City of Seattle Runs Out of Things to Tax – Now Wants to Impose Income Tax


Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes

Re-Posted Jul 13, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The Seattle City Council has run out of things to tax so they have unanimously voted to impose an income tax upon the “rich”, and of course we all know that will eventually move to include everyone. The city claims it will raise $140 million and it will cost $10-13 million to set up, and you can bet that does not include pensions for the new employees. The slogan is “Time for the rich to pay their fair share.” Of course, what is fair? If someone does not use any public services, then paying incomes tax is still fair? Americans have to pay income taxes if they live overseas and use nothing. Fairness is never judges upon what someone uses from the government, but when other people want to rob those who have more then it is suddenly fair. To a homeless person, someone earning just $25,000 a year is rich. It is always relative.

Jul 12 2017

China & The Rule of Law


Armstrong Economics Blog/China

Re-Posted Jul 12, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I read your analysis of Country Risk. It was truly fascinating. You are correct. We do not consider investing in Syria or Iran no less North Korea because they are not safe places to do business. That is clearly the first decision which shuts down any further consideration.

So I must ask. What is your next advice to China? And will you be coming to Shanghai for a conference anytime soon?

Thank you

ANSWER: My advice to China is now to formalizing the Rule of Law, establish courts with true independent judges nominated only by the private sector, and their terms should be a maximum of 2 years and out – barred from ever holding any government job again. I am aware that Federal judges from New York went to China to explain how to establish the court system modeled on the USA. Do NOT listen to such advice. American judges cannot be trusted.

Absolutely no legal right should be subject to the oscillating wishes of a judge. Sir William Blacksone wrote in 1776: “That the king can do no wrong is a necessary and fundamental principle of the English constitution.” That is fundamentally at odds with what he also wrote: “It is better that ten guilty escape than one innocent suffer.”

We must be mindful that perhaps the most honest ruler to have have held power with respect to the Rule of Law was Julian II (360-363AD) known as the Apostate, because he rejected Christianity after he family, related to Constantine I the Great, were murder the night he died by his son to prevent any rival to the throne. When Julian II came to power, he was the most brilliant ruler ever. In the criminal trial of Numerius, governor of Gallia Narbonensis, who was accused of embezzlement, Numerius had successfully defended himself against the prosecutor Delphidius. The prosecutor did not like to lose and said anyone could be found guilty if they only denied the charges. Julian’s response, quoted in Book XVIII of Ammianus’s History, “Can anyone be proved innocent, if it be enough to have accused him?”

Julian said that not even the emperor was above the law. This should be fundamental to the Survivability of any society. We must understand that those in the judiciary call themselves “honorable” without ever having to demonstrate that they possess such as distinction.  For I think prosecutors and judges, act in their own little bubbles to the detriment of society, yet give very great pleasure to themselves in wielding power and always being correct.

Established the best UNBIASED Rule of Law and capital will pour into China fleeing the corruption of the West.

Jul 12 2017

The Destruction of Hamburg is Massive


Armstrong Economics Blog/Civil Unrest

Re-Posted Jul 12, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The destruction of Hamburg has been massive. There is much going on behind the scenes politically with the focus now on intensely monitoring and censorship to be imposed. The degree of violence many view as unprecedented since the raid on Jewish businesses during the Nazi era. Inquiries are now looking into the organizers behind the scenes and where this originated from.

If funding came from any group inspired to create political unrest, we will see some head perhaps roll, but if that head is Soros, it will be swept under the rug with a bunch of money. Someone had to pay for the banners “G20 Welcome to Hell” which clearly illustrates this was premeditated and not spontaneous.

Jul 11 2017

Gold


Armstrong Economics Blog/Gold

Re-Posted Jul 11, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

We have not yet broken gold for all the people writing in. So far we have elected three Weekly Bearish Reversals from the July 2016 high in gold and three Monthly Bearish Reversals. We have elected two Weekly Bearish Reversals from the high in June and fallen into the target week of July 10th and last week was the Panic Cycle. We now look to the week of July 24th for the next turning point.

We are getting ready to relaunch Socrates. This is what it wrote for the Detailed Analysis today:

“Focusing on a trading perspective, the market has declined after making its high back in July 2016 at 137750. We did elect 3 Monthly Bearish Reversals warning that we have a more serious bearish shift in trend in play. Subsequently, we have formed a low at 112430 during December 2016 from which we have seen a bounce for the past 6 months. We have also elected 2 Monthly Bullish Reversals from the reaction low of December 2016 and we have now dropped back penetrating last month’s low implying we will retest support. A month-end closing below last month’s low of 123650 will be a technical warning of weakness ahead. Any long position should use a protective sell stop on a monthly closing basis at 121420. Keep in mind this is just a trading suggestion given it is merely a trading observation rule. Buy or sell signals take place on Reversals and Cycles. “

Categories: Gold
Jul 11 2017

Catalonia to Move to Referendum October 1st to Break From Spain


Armstrong Economics Blog/European Union

Re-Posted Jul 11, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The Spanish region of Catalonia is preparing to hold a second referendum on separating from of Spain on October 1st, despite warnings from Madrid. Naturally, the EU is against any such separation. However, the regional tensions are historic and Catalonia is the rich and prosperous region of Spain with Barcelona being perhaps the most beautiful city in Europe. The separatist movement are generally small but rising on a global scale primarily because of governments going broke everywhere.

 

Spain was actually formed by the marriage of the Catholic Monarchs of Queen Isabella I of Castile (Spain) and King Ferdinand II of Aragon in general. Both regions were historically two separate nations. That distinction has lived on and it is economics that is driving the separatist movement as we see in Canada with Quebec and in the United States with movements building in Texas and California, albeit small minorities so far. Catalonia was not part of Aragon but to some degree much more isolated from Madrid as you can see on this map.

The government in Catalonia will immediately declare independence from Spain if the majority of the citizens vote for that result in a second referendum planned for October. However, if the majority of citizens voted against independence, new elections would have to be held in the region. Madrid opposes any separation for it would devastate their budget since they extract more revenue from Catalonia which is being forced to support the rest of the country, including the corruption and pension in Madrid.

The point is not whether or not the referendum votes to separate, The point is that such a separatist movement has risen to this level at all.