New Study Islands are Growing not Sinking with Global Warming Conspiracy


This theory of Global Warming and the oceans will rise and places like New York City and Miami will sink beneath the waves is just so childish it is beyond contemplation that anyone coming up with such a theory would ever understand a complex system. They must have cut class during Physic probably because it was too far above their head. I have written before that the real experts on the oceans and how they function were at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University. It was in 1956 when they published A theory of ice ages by Maurice Ewing and William Donn, which these Global Conspiracy theorists obviously never read.  The stupid assumption that if the ice all melted the oceans would rise demonstrates they are incapable of understanding the planetary forces or are too corrupt to come up with a theory that is sufficient to convince weak-minded politicians.

These pretend scientists have been surprised by the recent findings, which show that some islands in the Pacific have actually grown by almost one-third in size over the past 60 years and have not sunk beneath the waves as predicted by the Global Warming conspiracy crowd. Indeed, the island chains to have increased in land mass such as Tuvalu and neighboring Kiribati. Both islands have attracted attention at last year’s Copenhagen climate summit. In this new study, researchers compared aerial photographs and high-resolution satellite images of 27 islands taken since the 1950s. There were only four islands which had decreased in size despite the local sea level rises of almost five inches in that time. These were mostly uninhabited. On the contrary, 23 islands remained the same or grew in mass. There were seven islands in Tuvalu group which actually grew as much as 30%. Melting ice will never result in the water rising for they simply do not understand how ice ages are even created. You need the ice to melt to create the evaporation that then comes down as snow and builds the glaciers.

Society was reborn from the Dark Ages BECAUSE of climate. This was the Medieval Warming period. However, the cycle of climate change turned downward and by the end of the 17th century, the climate turned bitterly cold. These Global Warming conspiracy crowd or con artists, also fail to correlate (or deliberately ignore) the impact of volcanoes as the one during the 17th century that created one of the greatest Russian famines in its history between 1601–1603. The weather began to turn against society again going into the end of the 17th century. The years 1693 and 1694 resulted in a major famine in France. The harvest of 1693 had been more than mediocre. The winter of 1694 was very hard, followed by a spring without rain. As of June, grain reserves were exhausted in most French cities and the registers of that period record a death toll of up to 35%.

1709 Deep FreezeEurope was rapidly turning colder much faster than expected during the 17th century. That sharp decline was a real global cooling period for Europe that culminated in what became known as the Deep Freeze of 1709. In the first few months of 1709 remained in a deep freeze that again wiped out food supplies. People were ice-skating on the canals of Venice, which again was highly unusual to see such cold that far south on the water. People could cross the Baltic Sea on horseback because it was completely frozen! You could not ring a church bell because it would shatter it was that cold.

We need to pay attention and at least prepare. We are in climate change, but it is not going to get warmer. The extreme volatility will produce draoughts with hot summers and extremely cold winters.

 

Winter Arrived Snowing in Rome – Climatic Change events result Historically in an increase in Violence


COMMENT #1: Mr. Armstrong; It is snowing here in Rome already. This looks like a bitterly cold winter this year as you said.

Roberto

COMMENT #2: Marty; I live just down the street from your old place in Kensington. It is snowing already. I have never seen it turn so cold so fast.

Cheers from the new Winter Wonderland.

PG

REPLY: It does not look good for weather again. Well, it was so hot during the summer creating a drought the Hunger Stones appeared, and now we have snow already. This is the same patterns historically that ended up resulting in the defeat of Napoleon. The crazy thing is this was easily predictable. I warned about the solar minimum back in 2015. This has been the fastest plunge into solar minimum that anyone has seen to date. Last year in 2017, there was extreme cold down all the way into Spain where food is grown for winter in Europe killing the crops.

The Atlantic current is slowing down dramatically. A team of scientists says it is the weakest in 1600 years. Naturally, they attribute it to humans who are driving their cars and heating their homes which is melting the ice in Greenland and that is fresh water which is lighter than seawater. They are predicting, of course, it could stop altogether in a few decades. The only problem is the classic one. They ignore cycles and assume whatever trend is in motion will stay in motion to the point it will stop completely. If that were the case, then we would probably go into a White Earth Effect and we should be all dead anyhow so perhaps the planet will heal itself when we are all gone. So they are predicting something that has no historical foundation since it has never happened before.

Here is a chart from an important study derived from the ice core samples in Greenland. A research team from Japan, France, Denmark, and the USA reconstructed the temperature history of the last 4,000 years in the center of Greenland with the help of ice cores and found that we are by no means creating any global warming that has never happened before in history. The basis of this chart was created from the air bubbles trapped in the ice. They were able to calculate the temperature at the snow surface by analyzing argon and nitrogen isotope ratios. This temperature has averaged -30.7 ° C over the past 4,000 years.

One thing to understand is that the peak in the Roman economy is regarded to have taken place with the Roman Emperor Marcus Aurelius (161-180AD). We see a huge spike down in temperature which corresponds to the peak in the Roman Empire which Edward Gibbons drew the line for the beginning of the Decline & Fall. It is clear from contemporary sources that the climate in Europe was turning extremely cold. By 170AD, Marcus Aurelius was battling the Germanic attempts to invade the south most likely due to this climate change. He wrote his Mediataions that he desperately needed to keep his mind distracted from the bitter cold at night. He even sent his children home to Rome to live with their great-great-aunt Matidia because Marcus thought the evening air was far too cold for them. He even asked his friend for “some particularly eloquent reading matter, something of your own, or Cato, or Cicero, or Sallust or Gracchus—or some poet, for I need distraction, especially in this kind of way, by reading something that will uplift and diffuse my pressing anxieties.” id/ Ad Antoninum Imperator 4.1 (= Haines 1.300ff), qtd. and tr. Birley, Marcus Aurelius, 120.

We know that from about 160 to 290 there was a period of climate cooling which dramatically impacted the northwestern provinces of the Empire and most likely inspired the initial invasions of the Germanic tribes. There was clearly dramatic swings in the climate. We have an extreme cold reported by Marcus Aurelius and this is accompanied by a drought, which is also like the patterns we are witnessing today. We also know that the Roman Emperor Elagabalus (218-222AD) during the third century just 50 years later ordered that snow was to be brought down from the mountains via donkey trains and placed in the garden next to his villa to keep cool during the summer. We have this period of extreme cold and extreme heat.

We also know from contemporary accounts that the ancient Egyptians hung damp reeds over windows and placed water-filled pots in hallways. As the water evaporated, it would cool the air. They also figured out that channeling air through stones resulted in the stones absorbing the heat and the air was cooled. I felt this myself when I climbed into the Great Pyramid and made it to the King’s Chamber. I thought it was air-conditioned at first and then realized it was an ancient system that still worked.

Dendrochronology, the science of dating events, environmental change, and archaeological artifacts by using the characteristic patterns of annual growth rings in timber and tree trunks, indicates that there was a severe drought which began in 338AD and persisted until 377AD. This event contributed to the fall of Rome after the recovery of the period of Constantine I (309-337AD) who died in 337AD.

 

Pope Leo in 452AD meets Attila the Hun

It was this severe drought that forced the nomadic pastoral federation of Huns to seek pastures and began to invade Europe to the west and south. Their attacks north of the Black Sea drove the Goths to flee into the Roman Empire and ultimately to attack Rome itself. Increased climate variability from coincided with the decline of the Western Roman Empire and its ultimate collapse in 476AD. For the Eastern Roman Empir,e there is an evidence for a regional prolonged drought in modern central Turkey also began in during the 5th century.

Hopefully, one day our approach to history will start a major exploration to understand history in a new way. What our computer has accomplished on correlating all of these trends is really unsurpassed. Looking at the global picture of climate and economic change provides a much greater precision in identifying some of the causal relationships underlying societal change that many did not quite understand. The issue of how climatic change cycles contribute to the disruptions affecting human societies and ultimately causing changes in the political system structures is something that has always attracted a great deal of attention in our research. What jumps out from the correlation is that climatic change events have resulted in an increase in violence over contested resources sparking great migrations and invasions

Trump Threatens to Cancel NAFTA If Congress Interferes


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Do you agree with Trump that if he canceled NAFTA, the United States would be better off?

SN

ANSWER: Ironically – YES from a jobs perspective, not the consumer. What you have to understand is that these trade deals are all nonsense. They are NOT Free Trade in the least. They are compromises so politicians can pretend they have accomplished something.

Take the deal with Europe. France’s position was that nothing can be called “Champagne” unless it comes from that region in France. Every trade negotiation is a compromise that maintains protectionism. In that regard, if Trump actually canceled NAFTA, his boast that the US would be better off is meant that all products would then be subjected to tariffs and all of the American industry would be protected.

Now, that said, this view is that of the worker – not the consumer. All of these trade negotiations are one-sided. They are always focused only on jobs and not producing the best price for the consumer which in turn raises our standard of living. I have never encountered even one politician who has EVER defended the consumer in trade deals. This violates the principle of Comparative Advantage put forth by David Ricardo. It’s true that Saudi Arabia could grow lettuce but the cost of irrigation in the desert would make the cost 10 times more than simply buying it from Europe or North America. It would cost the consumer far more to simply grow that product in the desert than importing so it is best to buy it elsewhere and focus on your productive capacity in which you have some comparative advantage over others.

Don’t Cry for Me Argentina – It’s a Global Debt Crisis


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Our government here in Argentina has told us we should expect more poverty and there is no hope for the future. Socrates has been amazing on its forecasts on our currency. There are enough of us down here who would sincerely ask would you consider advising Argentina to straighten out our economy and nation? You have forecast this emerging market crisis long before anyone else and your solution video on YouTube is very thought-provoking. If we can demand the government meets with you, would you do it?

KRD

ANSWER: The song maybe Don’t Cry for Me Argentina, but it applies to the entire world for what happens in Argentina is merely the beginning of the global debt crisis. We can see from the chart that the dollar has been soaring. However, the Array picked August as the Panic Cycle and that has been spot on. Unfortunately, it does not look like this is going to calm down. We may be headed into a real Emerging Market crisis by October.

The reason why we are able to forecast such events well in advance is rather common sense. As I have said before, every solution to a crisis sets the stage for the next crisis. The Emerging Market debt crisis is unfolding because central banks in the USA and Europe lowered interest rates to “stimulate” the economy and they have no idea about how an economy truly functions. This is all based upon Keynesianism which is in turn based upon an isolated theory of the economy. They never consider that you lower interest rates and there are pensions who simply need higher rates to break-even. Then emerging markets issued debt in dollars with higher yields for the pension funds bought it assuming there was no currency risk. Now we have Portuguese and Spanish banks who would not lend to their domestic economies for there were way too many nonperforming loans so they ran and bought Turkish debt.

What began in Argentina and Turkey has snowballed into broader collapse complete confidence in Emerging Market debt and the pension funds stopped buying and simply are now trying to get out as fast as they can. This now has officials in Indonesia, India, South Africa, and Brazil scrambling to protect their economies. The debt party is over! The ECB has created a global nightmare for so many European institutions ran into emerging markets because the ECB maintained NEGATIVE rates. Draghi has created a global debt crisis and now he himself is trapped. This is why Italy now wants to change the structure of the ECB so they can buy member debt directly rather than in the secondary market which they have destroyed. Draghi cannot stop Quantitative Easing for the 28 member states will be unable to sell their new-issue debt at rates that are similar to the current levels. Rates will soar in Europe if Draghi actually stopped buying and then we will see a global debt crisis you cannot imagine.

Left unchecked, more nations are going to be swept up in this debt crisis as their bond values collapse. This is threatening the entire world’s economic growth and confidence. As institutions begin to wise up for once, we will see the confidence in public debt collapse. This will become a game of musical chairs and the one left standing with government debt will lose everything!

The Turkish lira, which has been relentlessly setting new all-time lows and this is creating the contagion. Rumors are that Erdogan is such a tyrant, he will sooner turn to Russia and default on all Turkish debt just to retain personal power. Institutional Traders are the first to worry about countries with large current account deficits and a large stock of dollar-denominated debt in a world with rising interest rates and a stronger dollar. But their management often lags and do not listen to their trading desks because they tend to be more politically correct. The phones were actually ringing at the top and it was the ECB telling the banks to stop buying dollars because they were making the dollar rally. You can play those games only for so long before the whole house of cards comes crashing down.

I would be glad to fly to Argentina to help if the pain reaches their eyeballs so they will do as directed to save the country. Half-ass maybe’s are a waste of time. It is only worth it when they realize they have no choice

Napoleon was Defeated by Volcanoes


QUESTION: I recently read that the weather defeated Napoleon created by a Volcanic Winter in 1815. It seems to have lined up with your chart on the decline in the energy of the sun and sunspot activity. Would you agree with that?

PH

ANSWER: Oh yes. The theory that Napoleon lost at Waterloo was the result of weather because he delayed the use of his canons. I agree with that theory which has been reported by the BBC. However, that is Waterloo and its relation to the eruption of Tambora. Our computer also in correlating war and weather with the economy revealed that Napoleon also lost when he invaded Russia because of volcano eruptions.  Napoleon began his invasion of Russia on the 24th of June 1812. He was no fool. He waited for winter to be over. He was planning to take the city of Moscow in July. Instead, his army was devasted by winter and global cooling thanks to a volcano. The Russians abandoned Moscow and set it ablaze. When Napoleon entered Moscow, he assumed he would get an offer of peace. Nothing came. He eventually retreated and that was devastating. Napoleon had invaded with 680,000 men and retreated by November 1812 with only 27,000 effective soldiers remaining.

There is no question about it. When we correlate everything, you begin to see history in a whole new light. Napoleon was defeated by the Mini Ice Age. The Hunger Stones also marked the year 1811 as a drought. While this is one year prior to the eruption in the West Indies in 1812, there is what has been called the 1808/1809 Mystery Volcanic Eruption which seems to have set in motion a Mini Ice Age during the early 1800s. This was a monumental volcanic eruption in the VEI 6 range which appears to have taken place in late 1808. This event preceded the 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora (VEI 7) which produced the Year Without a Summer in 1816. Napoleon was defeated really by Volcanoes.This is my concern for the future going into 2024

Foreigners Selling UK Debt as Hard BEXIT appears


Foreign investors have been withdrawing on a large scale from British government bonds since July when the Conservatives seems to be splitting. Bank of England data released revealed a net outflow of £17.153 billion from foreigners in July, the largest since records began in 1982, Reuters reports. Even in June, there was still net capital investment from foreigners of 1.362 billion pounds. The decline in foreigners’ holdings is due to sales as well as to non-reinvested, expiring, bonds.  According to International Monetary Fund data, the UK has the largest current account deficit of the major industrial nations and is heavily dependent on foreign capital inflows. Theresa May’s refusal to stand firm and defend the people’s vote has seriously undermined the confidence in Britain.

We can see on our Capital Flow Map where we trace the net movement of capital that Britain has turned RED. We have been monitoring the significant net capital flight from Britain thanks to Theresa May. This is also one primary reason it appears that the British pound is still is a distinctive bear market trend with respect to the broader term.

 

While we did not elect any Monthly or Weekly Bearish Reversals, the pound is still is a broader bearish position at this time.

Cryptocurrency Scam?


There are way too many cryptocurrencies out there and even if we accept the theory that ONE will survive and become mainstream, what happens to the rest? This is the great unanswered question. You certainly cannot replace the dollar and central banks with thousands of currencies. We tried that once when Andrew Jackson revoked the Bank of the United States charter. We ended up with EVERY bank issuing their own paper money and we ended up creating the Great Depression of the 1840s that led to violence in the streets, defaults of State debts who tried to bail out failed banks, and eventually, a civil war that was not entirely over slavery. (You can buy catalogs of Broken Bank Notes that are published per state because there are way too many to be just one book).

There certainly is no possible viable economic system where there are thousands of cryptocurrencies. For the theory to even be viable aside from technology and every person being able to use computers or smartphones, In other words, the mere existence of a product does not necessarily mean that the product is working. After all, is a there has to be just one at least per nation. A single currency for the entire world will never work because not everyone has a current account and trade surplus. Someone must have a deficit. A single currency would result in exaggerated inflation and deflation globally in different regions. This is the problem with the dollar. If the Fed raises interest rates, it impacts the world because other nations are issuing debt in dollars. This is what results in losing DOMESTIC policy objective to INTERNATIONAL policy realities.

A recent study found that only 36 out of the top 100 cryptocurrencies has any working product. Most are just promises. Some people have gotten so caught up in this whole mess that they have lost a fortune. One borrowed $127,000 to invest in cryptocurrencies and lost 85%. Understanding that cryptocurrencies are no different from anything else. They are trading vehicles when you at least stick to the majors. Socrates picked the high in Bitcoin perfectly. How? Why? Very simple in fact. No matter what instrument you look at, the chart is not actually that instrument. It is a chart of HUMAN emotion relating TO THAT instrument.  The chart of silver from 1980 is similar to that of BitCoin. Back then, they were touting silver would go to $100. They swore it would do that any day for the next 19 years. We have people in Bitcoin swearing it is going to $100,000. That is such a joke for any currency to be worth that much would guarantee it cannot be used in commerce since most transactions are small.

 

No matter what bull market we look at, we find the same patterns. People get all emotional and rush in and buy the highs. The curious element is that they continue to believe the decline is only temporary. This seems to be standard human bias when people get caught up in the fever and lose all sight of history or reality.

This is why PROFESSIONAL traders have one PRIMARY RULE! ———–  Never marry the trade!

Trump Tries to Deal with the Pension Crisis


 

Most small businesses do not offer retirement plans because the excessive regulation which drives the costs significantly higher. Trump’s new Executive Order is primarily designed to reduce those costs by streamlining the excessive regulation. The order further makes it clear: “Within 180 days of the date of this order, the Secretary of the Treasury shall consider proposing amendments to regulations or other guidance, consistent with applicable law and the policy…”

The biggest problem with retirement plans has been the pretense that they should be “conservative” and that has meant they buy government debt. As the Fed lowered rates to “stimulate” the economy, they have remained well below 8% for more than a decade which has sharply reduced the ability to plan for retirement using bonds. Unless people begin to select more private investment into equities, they stand to lose a fortune and find themselves unable to retire. The sharp decline in the birth rate has also created a dangerous situation. For centuries, you had children to ensure you would be taken care of in your old age. Socialism has destroyed the family unit and taxation with student loans has drastically reduced the earning ability of children to save no less take care of their parents. The entire historical family structure has been undermined and the pension crisis poses a huge social threat in the years ahead