Florida Orange Trees Dying from Cold?


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Is it true that the Global Cooling has been creeping lower and lower into Northern Florida that the citrus crops are being affected to the point that they are starting to switch to olives?

DT

ANSWER: Yes, that is true. Florida here has not been devasted by the heat as up north. However, at the same time, during the winter it did get cold enough that some of the plant I have died. This is happening to the citrus trees. There has been a shift to planting olive trees which can withstand the cold. This seems to be part of the cycle behind climate change and global cooling

Tampa v St. Petersburg for Migration


QUESTION: Dear Mr. Armstrong:
I have a question in regards to your recommendation from last year’s WEC. You recommend to move to Tampa, FL and I have been following your recommendation. I have been wanting to move out of Stockton, California, which a bankrupted city in the late 2008 Financial Crisis. Stockton has been a mess and it never been recovered and plus the testing site of Universal Basic Income. I believe it will never recover.

I have been in Tampa and St. Pete lately, there are lots of newly constructed high rise and building. It seems booming here in Western Florida. My question is comparing Tampa between St. Pete, which city is good to move to. I asked the local St. Pete is a bigger city, lots to do and more finance companies located there. Could you clarify and give your two-cents thought?

Will the housing price correction effect in these cities so much while we enter into 2020? Either way to me, both cities are booming and beautiful.

Thank you in advance,
JC

ANSWER: In my opinion, St Pete is far better than Tampa. It is a city that is more like a village with better restaurants and things to do. You can drive to Tampa to go to Starz if you like Broadway Plays, they come here from New York and rotate. It’s a much nicer venue compared to New York. St Petersburg is a more lively town and more “artsy” and if you need to run to Tampa its 30 minutes. There is a lot of new construction going on for a lot more people are just leaving the states with high taxes. California and Illinois along with New Jersey have net migration leaving to other states. The prices for this area are still half that of Miami or California. I was considering buying a second house to entice my family to migrate but I had to run off to do the Singapore conference. I told the realtor when I got back I would put in a bid. By the time I got back, the house sold.

Another unpublished tidbit is that the “bugs” in Florida people hear about are inland. You will encounter them in Tampa, but they do not seem to make it across the bay to St Pete. There are a few high-rise condo buildings under construction in St Pete. Rush hour is minimal at worst 15 minutes compared to 45+ for Tampa. It’s a younger area, not one of the real retired areas like Marco Island where you can’t go to dinner at 9 pm since everything is closed down. Additionally, it has one of the top 10 beaches in the USA if not the world. The most fantastic sand you will ever feel – far better than the coarse Atlantic or Pacific. We get the sunsets rather than the sunrise. They really make every day a new experience. I took this picture myself.

Florida housing on the West Coast will do better than the East. The New Yorkers drove prices really high to the point they are twice as high if not more on the East Coast and the South American buyers bought up Miami. Tampa is also one of the best airports. You can get direct flights to Europe. If you need a direct flight to just about anywhere, even Moscow, then you go to Orlando and that’s 1:30 away. The drive is much better than to JFK in New York or LAX not to mention Chicago.

Cyclical Synchronization & the Global Economy Make Manipulation Impossible


 

A metronome is an instrument to measure the time and that the musicians use for their work. One of the most curious phenomena is observed when different metronomes that have a different frequency between themselves end up synchronizing perfectly. This symbolizes what I find so fascinating in the world economy. No nation stands alone. This is why even contagions appear in the world economy. However, it also makes my point that politicians can promise whatever to get elected, but they are indeed powerless to separate a nation from a global synchronize.
Below is another fascinating experiment with wave motion and frequencies. There is just a lot more behind the curtain than people realize and despite all the conspiracy theories, it is IMPOSSIBLE to manipulate anything and alter its trend. The best someone can do is move in within the range of “noise” but it cannot adopt a counter-trend move to the synchronization. The proof of this statement is the failure of Communism as well as Keynesianism. Any attempt to return to a fixed exchange rate will always fail for the same reason. You cannot eliminate the business cycle.

The US Share Market Reality Exposed


The US share markets are being driven up by two main factors. First, institutions have sold the market assuming there would be a major crash. In February at the lows, Goldman Sachs was forecasting that the market could plunge another 25%. In May, Goldman Sachs again was warning that the next crash will be worse because of computerized trading. Investopedia published an article last January: Why The 1929 Stock Market Crash Could Happen In 2018. Fox Business reported on October 18, 2017: Stock market crash inevitable, financial historian saysThe number of forecasts that keep calling for a major crash has been truly amazing. This has been one reason why I have said that this is the Most Hated Bull Market in History! For at least the final 18 months going into the high on September 3rd, 1929, the general consensus turned bullish. People were also bearish and in fact, the Wall Street Journal even accused Jesse Livermore of turning bullish to try to influence the presidential election. Strangely reminiscent of Russian hackers in 2016. As long as the major remain bearish calling for every top to be the last one, you know we are nowhere near the high yet.

Besides the constant selling that has led to repeated short-covering, we also have the excuse that the rally is primarily being caused by massive buybacks by corporations of their own shares. They point out that corporate-buy-backs will also reach an all-time high in 2018. They present this as evidence that somehow these purchases are not legitimate. In truth, the excess cash has led companies to buy back shares which will have two interesting impacts. First, it actually creates a shortage of shares. This was one factor in creating the 1929 bubble.  Indeed, some of the last stocks to be floating going into the high of 1929 were Mausoleum companies.

Additionally, the US share market has benefited from the political-economic turmoil outside the USA – especially in Europe. Even IMF acknowledged that the European Central Bank’s pledge to buy government bonds set in motion a capital flight and the financial fragmentation of the eurozone back on October 9th, 2012 the return of global dollar capital to the US as a result of the central bank’s interest rate hikes also contributed to the positive trend. When we look at the Dow Jones Industrials, we can easily see that it continues to make new highs in Euro. This foreign buying has absorbed domestic selling.

The Significance of the Velocity of Money


QUESTION: Greetings Marty,

I have followed you since the old Money Radio days!

Can you help me understand the disparity between the declining velocity of money, the growth of the economy and what the natural consequence may be?

Thank you for your willingness to share your knowledge!

Regards,

MRM

 

ANSWER: Oh yes. Buzz Schwartz was a fantastic guy. I enjoyed doing his show there in California. The economic growth has been declining for decades as has the velocity of money, As the velocity declines, it shows that people are either saving more or they do not have disposable income after taxes to spend.  Normally, the velocity will decline and that is a sign of a recession. This is the normal reaction when people save and do not spend. However, if you are not in an economic recession/depression there is no FEAR FACTOR of what the future will bring, then the velocity declines because people really do not have the money after taxes to spend. This is one reason I keep harping on – it’s the taxes stupid!

In the USA, the velocity bottomed during the 2nd quarter of 2017 and has started to turn up with Trump lowering taxes. This is the first uptick since the decline began from the 3rd quarter of 1997 when the capital flows began to shift creating the 1997 Asian Currency Crisis. When Obama raised the tax rate from 35% to 39.6% in 2013, that began the real sharp decline.

The decline in the velocity of money and the rising burden of taxation is very alarming. That has been the worst combination which has suppressed the Euro zone economy. We see this with central banks setting targets for 3% inflation and they cannot reach that level.

Why are Robots Changing the Future?


QUESTION: Do you think that robots will eliminate a lot of jobs in the future?

EH

ANSWER: Yes. But you have to understand WHY are we even turning to robots. The answer to that question is TAXES & SOCIALISM! The bottom line is rather blunt. Any routine job that can be replaced by allowing the consumer to choose their own order to be it at a fast-food store or the internet will be at risk along with jobs that are easily be defined by a mathematical or logic equation will be at risk in the future. Many companies are now limiting workers to 33 hours per week or less to simply avoid having to provide benefits and pensions.

Health reform is ABSOLUTELY vital for the future. To be able to provide REASONABLE health care at a reasonable cost DEMANDS tort reform. This is what is driving the cost of medicine really high because the doctors have to pay huge insurance fees because of the lawyers. Turn on the radio and you hear ads for lawyers all the time. They are the NUMBER ONE occupation among those in Congress so you can bet they will NEVER provide tort reform against their own industry. This idea of universal health care is a real joke. They will make comparisons to Europe, but fail to explain that doctors work for the government in most cases.

Obamacare really escalated the entire problem. What Obama pulled off was the idea that forcing the youth to buy insurance would reduce the cost for those who really needed it. There were ZERO reforms and just more bureaucracy. You cannot get the benefits without reforming the system.

Then throw in the pension crisis. This is leading to growing part-time employment and makes robots VERY attractive to replace jobs because they do not require benefits and salaries. As for universal income, here we go again. This is another ploy where we keep trying to come up with schemes that support a system that is failing. Deal with the heart of the issue and just maybe we might get somewhere.

Let’s eliminate the income tax and adopt a new system which will not make labor outrageously expensive.

The Rumors are that Turkey Will Default


The rumors running around is that Turkey will default as Erdogan decides to move to align with Iran and Russia and leave the West behind. While there have been speculative attacks on the Turkish economy and US tariffs and sanctions have been detrimental, the initial causes of this growing monetary problem are really all internal. Erdogan’s management of the economy has been a disaster. He has pretended to borrow too much money from foreign investors to stimulate the economy. It is true that the total debt rose to over $450 billion, about half of GDP. Turkish exports and the current account deficit rose to $50 billion. This has led to rapid inflation that has been at least an annual rate of nearly 7% on average during the last ten years. In truth, Erdogan was really trying to build the economy to fulfill his dream of reestablishing the Ottoman Empire and emerge as at least the dominant power over the Middle East.

Unfortunately, Erdogan is stubborn and he really has no way out. He wants his cake and consumes it all at the same time. The rumors running around the trading desks is that he will pull the plug and turn his back on the West. By doing so, he can then justify defaulting on the debt of the “corrupt” West who wants to subjugate Turkey will be the justification spin of things. It looks like this will remain volatile into October.

Three Volcanoes Erupt at Same Time & New Evidence of Gamma Ray Intensity


 

A number of people have written in that they enjoyed the phrase I made up that we are like a pebble at the bottom of the ocean with no clue what lies above our heads. I have stressed that our computer correlated volcanoes with the decline in solar sunspot activity. What has also been strange is that further research has revealed that when we go into Solar Minimum, this is also simultaneously the maximum output of Gamma Rays. I offer no explanation as to why volcanoes tend to erupt more during solar minimum. My role here is simply to correlate everything to understand the trends set in motion behind the economy. Weather and shortage of food have been major factors in economic history setting off migrations and extinctions.

Gamma Rays are the most energetic form of light and are produced by the hottest regions of the universe. They are also produced by such violent events as supernova explosions or the destruction of atoms, and by less dramatic events, such as the decay of radioactive material in space. Things like supernova explosions (the way massive stars die), neutron stars and pulsars, and black holes are all sources of celestial gamma-rays. Interestingly very few gamma-rays actually make it through the atmosphere. Gamma-rays can strike the material and produce ‘secondary’ particles which are more penetrating and can go through the material. Consequently, the majority of the cosmic rays that actually reach the Earth’s surface are ‘secondary cosmic rays’, produced by gamma-rays. Primary cosmic rays are high energy particles (such are protons and the nuclei from iron atoms) that are moving at speeds very close to the speed of light. These primary cosmic rays are mostly deflected by the Earth’s magnetic field. If Earth didn’t have a magnetic field, there would be many more primary cosmic rays hitting the atmosphere, and many more secondary cosmic rays hitting us and penetrating .the Earth itself.

These waves are penetrating electromagnetic radiation of a kind arising from the radioactive decay of atomic nuclei. Gamma Rays are beyond X-rays and will obviously penetrate deep into the Earth. This may be pointing to the cause of an increase in volcanic activity. The Earth’s magnetic field serves to deflect most of the solar wind, whose charged particles would otherwise strip away the ozone layer that protects the Earth from harmful ultraviolet radiation. According to scientists’ best estimates, the Earth’s magnetic field is now weakening around 10 times faster than initially thought, losing approximately 5% of its strength every decade. But they don’t really know why, or what that means for our planet. This could be the precursor to the poles flipping.

 

 

Here we are in August 2018 and three volcanoes in Indonesia erupt all at the same time. The three volcanoes that are rumbling and spewing ash are Mount Sinabung (pictured here), Gamalama, and Rinjani. In fact, this year we now have 34 major volcanoes erupting worldwide compared to 12 last year and 11 back in 2015. In the Ring of Fire, we now have 6 volcanoes erupting this year with another 5 in Indonesia alone. There are now 4 erupting in South America, 5 in the Mexico/Carribean and Central America. In Africa and the Indian Ocean there are now 4 volcanoes erupting and in the Pacific Ocean, there are are another 6 erupting. In Europe, we have one in Italy erupting in the Eolian Islands – Mt Stromboli. Lastly, there is even one in Antarctica melting ice.

While we have had extreme heat in Europe, now there is early snowfall in Russia and in the Alps. Then Melbourne Australia is freezing. Meanwhile, we have Mexican farmers blaming German auto manufacturers for creating a drought. Perhaps when they figure out that this is a natural cycle they will file a lawsuit against the various churches, temples, and synagogs that represent God on Earth. Someone has to be blamed!

It certainly looks like we are headed to a commodity boom between 2020 and 2024

Flipping of the Poles Rapid of Gradual?


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I read your Mayan report and it was fascinating. Do you think that these strange anomalies of places that are cool experiencing hot summers and where it should be hot have been getting cool are a prelude to climate change that may be the preparation for the flipping of the poles?

EK

ANSWER: Nobody knows for sure. There are a number of scientists who are very concerned that we are overdue for the reversal of the poles. Nobody really knows the consequences since we are talking about a period beyond recorded history. One theory is that the magnetic field is what shelters us from the worse of the sun. The magnetic field has been declining in magnitude. This is what many fear is the real cause behind the appearance of climate change.

We were given the data to run it through our computer and it came up with a cycle of 720,000 years. We are clearly overdue and how do you measure that is hard to say – weeks, months, years, decades, or centuries? It has been postulated that such a flip will be devastating for our shield against harmful radiation from the sun will be diminished. Some have even raised the issue that this could be a factor in mass extinctions.

What I can say is that based upon our models, the pole flip will be rapid, not gradual. The prelude may appear gradual as we see now with a 5% decline per century. However, we will cross an invisible line and then it will flip instantaneous not gradual. It will act like a pot of boiling water. It will be no means be a linear progression.