Tag Archives: ECM

Mar 20 2023

The Decline & Fall of the United States


Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption re-Posted Mar 20, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Hi Marty,

Seems to me the Democrats are following the time honored practice South American governments have resorted to in recent years when one party displaces another in a national election. In Brasil, the current president, Lula, spent 3 years in jail for charges of corruption. His successor was later removed from office. Now Bolsonaro has fled the country and is living in South Florida. In Ecuador, a past president, Moreno ,is under indictment and it appears he too will end up being arrested on trumped up corruption charges. In Bolivia, two term ex-president Evo Morales, after trying to run for an unprecedented third term, fled the country in 2019 when it appeared opposition to his run would potentially result in his being jailed. He fled to Argentina, then later got asylum in Mexico. The woman who replaced him was subsequently arrested on trumped up charges of conspiracy. IN Peru, which has gone through more presidents in recent years than most countries have experienced in a half century, has arrested the past 5 presidents. In Chile, the last president who served in office was run out of office for using the military to suppress protests. This was back in 2019.  The revolution that led to the country abandoning their old constitution has put the country in chaos.. The current president is extremely unpopular and one can imagine he won’t last another year in office. In Colombia, the country now is run by a communist/socialist who is now flirting with an ambitious spending program designed to buy time and slow down the opposition building against him. In Argentina, the former president, Christina Fernandez Kirchner, is dodging charges of corruption(and just avoided being assassinated by a lone gunman) after presiding over another series of IMF sponsored funding that has left the country in a perpetual state of default. The socialist in office today, Fernandez, is one of a long line of failed presidents who is destined to be pulled under by the corruption so deeply embedded in this country.

Now the Democrats appear to have imported South America’s tradition of imprisoning opposition leaders.It’s hard to imagine a party as corrupt as that of the Democrats. But nothing happens in a vacuum. With Republican support in Congress during Trump’s term when they opposed him and did everything they could to undermine him, the uni-party now operates without even the slightest effort to disguise their true intentions. An outsider like Trump is anathema to both parties. It reminds me of the PRI in Mexico. which put forth its candidate every year pretending people there actually had a choice, It took AMLO to break this tradition. Only because the drug cartels today are so powerful, the central government is virtually impotent to extend its reach outside of the capital.

We are watching the dying days of this republic. Biden’s “election” has assured that no serious challenger can ever emerge.Locking up your opponent now has become part of their playbook.  This is the tradition of the Sandinistas, the Peronists in Argentina, and now the Biden dictatorship.

MS

REPLY: People do not realize that Zelensky wants to imprison the former president indefinitely pending a rigged trial for corruption. This is the one man who could probably run against Zelensky and beat him with his high heel shoes. Zelinsky is so perverse and a disgrace to Ukraine when in fact it has been clearly established there is NO accountability for any money handed to Zelensky and any American politician who votes for this money for Ukraine should be removed from office for they are probably tainted as well.

It has been established that Zelensky has been stashing money offshore. When the last Ukrainian fall on the battlefield, the US will have him airlifted in style and he will flee to his mansion in Miami after destroying his own country. Zelensky has been caught. Who will prosecute him? Not the Biden Administration which owed him the Midterm elections for being the 2nd largest donor under the money laundering scheme of FTX which will also be swept under the rug to protect the corruption that has consumed governments.

The United States is NO LONGER the beacon of liberty to the world. We have descended to the lowest possible level of absolute duplicity and corruption. People are bearish about the dollar because of the quantity of money? Get real! The collapse in the dollar will not be because of such petty nonsense. it will collapse because these people are destroying the very foundation of confidence and respect the United States once had.

Mar 20 2023

This Just In – Western Nation Central Banks Organize to Provide Daily Liquidity of Dollars in The Event of Contagion Bank Collapse


Posted originally on the CTH on March 19, 2023 | Sundance 

This is rather remarkable and tells us something about the current status of the “western” financial system.  The last sentence in today’s announcement from the FED is particularly laughable.   Check this out [Source]:

That last sentence is nonsense.   When was the last time the ‘central banks’ worried about the supply of credit to households and businesses?  Total and complete nonsense. What they are worried about is the need to have readily available dollars, faster, to backstop banks that are supposed to be holding deposits.

Nothing quite inspires ‘global banking confidence’ like the need to swap dollars rapidly, from country to country on a daily basis, because the amount of currency in bank, within any western nation, at any given time, might disappear.

Yesterday’s monologue from Neil Oliver, and the recent personal banking story that structures his comments, is standing as eerily prescient right now.  SEE BELOW:

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“This just in.  Everything is fine… the liquidity of the Western banking system has never been stronger”… “Look over there folks, Trump indictment, nothing to see here folks… move along now”…

Mar 19 2023

Interview with World Affairs Monthly


Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Mar 19, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Click here to listen to my interview on 3/16/23 with World Affairs Monthly (also published on Monitoring Risk).

Mar 19 2023

We Are in the COMPLEXITY & The Collapse of International Law


Armstrong Economics Blog/Banking Crisis Re-Posted Mar 18, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

We are in the middle of a convergence of so many crises it is hard to keep track. The SWAMP in Washington has always been out of control. There is even a bill being introduced to make it illegal for congressmen and their spouses or family members to be trading on inside information. It is titled: The Preventing Elected Leaders from Owning Securities and Investments (PELOSI) Act. We go to prison for 20 years for what they do routinely. The Biden money payments from China will be the foundation of an impeachment proceeding. With all the Democrats did against Trump and are still at it, they have opened the door to what goes around comes around. Trump has announced the New York Democratic prosecutors are desperate to indict him in hopes of preventing him from running for President and that they will arrest him perhaps this coming week. Now the theory, since the taxes did not work, paying “hush” money to Stormy Daniels the porn star. When you have Biden taking money from China and Ukraine and everyone turns a blind eye, paying hush money to a porn star is far more important to the country?

The political nonsense that dominates a lot of boards of directors should be outlawed as fraud. The people on the board of SVB had ZERO experience in finance no less economic trends. All they do is pay mountains of cash to the Democrats and get put on boards for their political contacts. So many boards are stacked with political people, lawyers, or accountants, who have no experience in the financial markets or economic trends. If these people have ZERO experience in running a company, then they should be liable for their decisions.

We were called in by a major public company in Australia on a project to hedge their foreign exchange exposure. The quote we gave them was somewhere between $1 and $2 million back in the 1980s. They rejected it and said they would not pay more than the CEO was paid. They were clueless. I explained that we had dealing desks in Asia, the USA, and Europe and their book would have to be passed around the world 24 hours a day. They did not understand anything. They hired a 23-year-old kid to hedge their risk, he bought a Porsche and got into an accident, and while in the hospital they lost $80 million. Regulators then realized that directors should be held responsible for making decisions in things they had no experience.

We are headed into such COMPLEXITY it is off the charts. We have a convergence of so much going into April, it’s hard to say which fundamental will be the top dog. Between arresting Trump, and the revelations coming out about the Biden Crime Family, all of this contributes to the collapse in confidence in the government. Then Biden’s failure to understand the serious nature of this banking crisis and that it is the Biden Administration that is directly responsible for the crisis as it continues into April just added to the COMPLEXITY. Biden’s handling of SVB will now be seen as political since the phones were melting down from all the Democrats in California who stood to lose. Even Ophrah Winfrey had a ton of money in SVB. NBow the failure to stand behind all deposits everywhere will only make this look like a Democratic bailout.

Add to all of this, the ICC has shown that it too is politically corrupt and has been usurped by the Neocons. The ICC issued the bullshit criminal indictment of Putin orchestrated by the Neocons when in fact they have no such jurisdiction. The ICC has lost all credibility. ICC has jurisdiction ONLY over member states and that does not include the USA, China, or Russia. I reported that my sources on October 14th, 2022, were warning that the ICC was being politically manipulated not much different than the SWIFT monetary system. A team of lawyers in the UK filed a complaint with the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court on behalf of the people. The report alleges that government officials, and pharmaceutical executives, have conspired with COVID. They did nothing.

The ICC can ONLY prosecute member states. The United States refused to join the ICC so no American can ever be tried for a war crime. The same applies to Russia, yet the ICC is trying to politically indict Putin to create World War III. The ICC has lost all integrity no different than the New York Prosecutors going after Trump for anything they can possibly find. Next will be his parking tickets.

I had dinner with people from the ICC and they acknowledged that the United States used its legal system for political purposes. They were stunning in my case. They also said they would love to bring charges against the United States for they routinely violate international law and engage in torturing people – remember waterboarding and  Abu Ghraib.

In my case, I believe the banks told the CFTC to shut down our forecasting because they thought removing us would then allow them to manipulate markets. But they still blew up the world economy in 2007 and traders on the floor were calling it Armstrong’s Revenge. They never learn. They can bribe all the politicians, but that does not guarantee their trade. The CFTC refused to allow the forecasts to continue and insisted that all staff was to be fired worldwide. They rejected others offering to rent the Institute to keep it going. This was a FIRST AMENDMENT violation to shut down our forecasting to aid the corrupt banks.

The ICC told me at dinner that they would have loved to take my case, but since the US was not a member they could not bring charges against the US courts. That proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that this indictment of Putin is political and they have sold their soul to the Neocons. This was announced in hopes of threatening China with respect to their meeting with Russia to try to stop them from joining forces. The Neocons have now full control of the ICC and that prevents any peace negotiations going forward.

Then last November, the United Nations also surrendered its independence to the Neocons ensuring that we have no choice but to enter World War III. This is the agenda. The United Nations General Assembly has now adopted a resolution calling for Russia to pay war reparations for its invasion of Ukraine. This is to include the billions of dollars in damage and destruction, as well as reparations for the loss of life. The US refuses to provide any independent investigation into blowing up Nord Stream which was an act of international war. Instead, they attack the messenger. The UN simply wants to wash its hands in the blood of millions if not billions negative what it was entirely supposed to have been created for – world peace.

The world is now officially in control of the Neocons. Never in all my years did I ever expect looking at their long-range forecasts calling for a war that we would be the evil aggressors. We need the model to do its job here for we cannot even figure out on an opinion basis which fundamental will come out on top. We really desperately need members of Congress to recognize the real threat is within.

Mar 19 2023

Interview with World Affairs Monthly


Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Mar 19, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Click here to listen to my interview on 3/16/23 with World Affairs Monthly (also published on Monitoring Risk).

Mar 18 2023

Chaos & the Secret Order to Everything


Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM Re-Posted Mar 18, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Economics is the ONLY field where cycles are denied. Moreover, people do not even comprehend how COMPLEXITY emerges. Alan Turing was a brilliant mathematician who is probably the father of computers for he built the really first computer to break the German Enigma Machine. The man was Alan Turing. He invented the computer and broke the German Enigma Code. You can watch the movie The Imitation Game to get a general idea of his achievement.

But Turing did something even far more astonishing. He had a theory that within nature, what appears to be chaos was just a mask that hides a natural order. He was the first to think that there might be a mathematical order that defines nature. There is a mysterious aspect of Morphogenesis. All the cells in an embryo are identical. Then the cells begin to clump together and actually become different from each other. The mystery was how identical cells know to form different things such as skin, eyes, brain, or bone. There is no central command center.

Turing 1952 Morphogenesis

The phenomenon of Morphogenesis is what is the essence of mystery. This process becomes self-organization. Before Turning, absolutely nobody had any idea of how this process even worked. It was also a great mystery of life itself. It was Turning who published on March 15th, 1952, the Ides of March 3.14, his mathematical explanation of Morphogenesis. Turning’s formula was revealing for it uncovered a secret order behind the mask of chaos. Despite being one of the most brilliant minds ever and all his contributions even breaking the German code, because he was a homosexual, a judge order him to prison or subject him to hormone injections to cure him. He committed suicide on June 7th, 1954 because of the abuse of the government which ignored all his contributions.

What Turning discovered in nature, was that there is a hidden order in which identical cells then change and become specific parts of the end result without any specific coding. What would appear to be simplistic formulas, suddenly emerged into a complexity that baffled the human mind. This is what I discovered in economics. A secret cycle that defines the complexity which we also cannot see with the naked eye.

This is why different cycles unfold in all the sectors such as metals, commodities, share markets, currency, bonds, etc, and when they align that is when we get the superposition events. I will explain more in my forthcoming book on the Economic Confidence Model. One bubble will be in the real estate markets, such as 1792 and 2007-2009. Other bubbles took place in commodities such as in 1919. Still, others took place in currency markets and capital concentration such as the 1989 peak in the Nikkei in Japan or the 1929 bubble in the USA.

In 2020, we warned that this cycle would be a debt crisis wave, but also a commodity wave with rising inflation and interest rates into 2024. We must understand that each bubble is different for it all depends upon the cyclical aspect of that particular sector and does that line up with others to produce a super-wave that becomes the bubble.

Right now, we have a crisis in banking because far too many banks have just listened to the mainstream media and failed to understand that interest rates would be rising – not declining. Since 2020 we have been warning that interest rates were at a 5,000-year low. A simple bounce to just 5% would be devastating. Many banks attend our conferences because they are sophisticated and do not make hedging decisions based on the latest headline on MSNBC.

I am working hard on having Socrates articulate the complexity. I hope to roll this out this year – ASAP. My personal interpretation is generally on point, but not always. What looked to be dominated by geopolitical events in April, appears to be combined with the banking crisis, and in all honestly, I could not imagine that the FDIC even considered not covering 85% of the deposits. I should not have had to even explain that doing that would mean that small businesses have systemic risk in all banks. I actually had to explain there would be a major banking crisis in April that would make the Great Depression appear like a dress rehearsal.

As such, this banking crisis does not appear to be finished. It will still move into April 10th or so. Then the ICC issued a criminal indictment for Putin when they have no such jurisdiction by their own authority. They have become yet another political tool of the Neocons determined to create World War III.

We have entered the period of COMPLEXITY where we are not looking at a single sector in a bubble. We are looking at a really dangerous contagion of COMPLEXITY and the Neocons could care less about the economics. They have control of the White House and this is their chance and they are NOT backing down.

God help humanity!

Mar 18 2023

Interview: Neocons, Global Warfare, Digital Currencies, Bitcoin


Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Mar 18, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Watch the video above or click here to listen to my latest interview: “Neocons, Global Warfare, Digital Currencies, Bitcoin.”

Mar 18 2023

Interview: The World According to Martin Armstrong Part 3, The Rise of the Neocons


Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Mar 18, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Summary:
Martin Armstrong joins us in this episode to give his perspective on what’s happening in the world—addressing topics like the war in Ukraine, gold, central bank currencies, cryptocurrency, and more. We discuss what’s in store for the war and whether there is an end in sight, noting the US’ tendency to get involved in endless wars with no strategic defense. Furthermore, Russell emphasizes that the market will eventually break to the upside, and that capital will move from the bond markets and into the private sector. Tune in to this episode for more expert insight. 

Press play on the audio player above or click here for my latest interview with Kerry Lutz: “The World According to Martin Armstrong Part 3, The Rise of the Neocons.”

Mar 18 2023

The International Criminal Court (ICC) Issues Warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin for Human Trafficking, Child Abduction and Other Heinous Misdeeds


Posted originally on the CTH on March 17, 2023 | Sundance

Before looking at the absurdity of the International Criminal Court (ICC) position, it is worth noting that Russia, Ukraine, Saudi Arabia, India, Iran, Iraq, Turkey, the United States and China do not recognize the jurisdiction of the ICC and are not member states in the organization {LINK}.

Additionally, I doubt the countries of Kiribati and Malawi are going to launch a military offensive against Russia; so, one has to ask, exactly what is this latest production about – amid the theater of World War Reddit.

The essential accusation is that Vladimir Putin took orphans out of orphanages in the Ukraine war zone and moved the children to safety in Russia.  Ergo, Putin is guilty of human trafficking and abducting children.

THE HAGUE (AP) — The International Criminal Court said Friday that it has issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin for war crimes, accusing him of personal responsibility for the abductions of children from Ukraine.

It was the first time the global court has issued a warrant against a leader of one of the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council.

The ICC said in a statement that Putin “is allegedly responsible for the war crime of unlawful deportation of (children) and that of unlawful transfer of (children) from occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation.”

The move was immediately dismissed by Moscow. […]  Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia doesn’t recognize the ICC and considers its decisions “legally void.” He called the court’s move “outrageous and unacceptable.”  Peskov refused to comment when asked if Putin would avoid making trips to countries where he could be arrested on the ICC’s warrant.

[…]Lvova-Belova, who was also implicated in the warrants, reacted with dripping sarcasm. “It is great that the international community has appreciated the work to help the children of our country, that we do not leave them in war zones, that we take them out, we create good conditions for them, that we surround them with loving, caring people,” she said. (read more)

Mar 18 2023

Chairman Xi Heading to Russia Next Week For State Visit with President Putin – NATO, Ukraine and U.S. Going Bananas


Posted originally on the CTH on March 17, 2023 | Sundance 

U.S. government officials are not happy as China confirms Chairman Xi Jinping visit to Russia next week to meet with President Putin.

In the background of the Ukraine conflict, smiling Panda has been happy to see distracted western nations bleeding their resources and treasury in support of Ukraine.  Meanwhile, happy Panda negotiates and brokers increased relationships between Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, India and China.

There is no downside to Chairman Xi visiting Russia and advancing a position that ‘peaceful negotiations’ should begin between Russia and Ukraine, unless a resolution to the conflict is against the geopolitical usefulness of the war – which appears to be the unfortunate current status.

“The U.S. on Friday said it would oppose any effort by China at the meeting to propose a ceasefire in Ukraine“…

Think about that.  Remember, Ukraine is to Washington DC as North Korea is to Beijing.

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Chinese President Xi Jinping plans to visit Moscow next week, offering a major diplomatic boost to Russian President Vladimir Putin on the same day the International Criminal Court announced it wants to put the Russian leader on trial for alleged war crimes.

Xi’s visit was the latest sign of Beijing’s emboldened diplomatic ambitions, and came amid sharpening East-West tensions over the war in Ukraine, now in its 13th month.  The U.S. on Friday said it would oppose any effort by China at the meeting to propose a ceasefire in Ukraine as the “ratification of Russian conquest.”

White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby encouraged Xi to reach out to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to get his country’s perspective on the war and avoid any “one-sided” proposals.

China has sought to project itself as neutral in the conflict, even while it has refused to condemn Moscow’s aggression and declared last year that it had a “no-limits” friendship with Russia. Beijing has denounced Western sanctions against Moscow, and accused NATO and the United States of provoking Putin’s military action.

Throughout the conflict, China has said the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries should be respected. It remains unclear, however, whether it sympathizes with Moscow’s claims to seized Ukrainian territory.

[…] Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Friday that Putin and Xi would have a one-on-one meeting over an informal dinner Monday. Broader talks involving officials from both countries on a range of subjects are scheduled for Tuesday.

Putin’s foreign policy adviser, Yuri Ushakov, suggested the talks could yield new approaches to the fighting in Ukraine. “I’m sure that our leader and the Chinese leader will exchange their assessments of the situation” there, he said. “We shall see what ideas will emerge after that.”  (read more)

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