Study finds CO2 lags Temperature


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New Paradigm-Shifting Study Finds Annual CO2 Flux Is Driven By Temperature-Dependent Sea Ice Flux

By Kenneth Richard on 7. November 2022

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Annual carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) change rates lag behind changes in sea ice extent by 7 months and 5 months, respectively. This robust correlation is consistent with the conclusion that CO2 (and CH4) changes are responsive to temperature, not the other way around.

It is commonly believed that the annual “squiggle” of the Mauna Loa CO2 cycle variations are driven by hemispheric seasonal contrasts in terrestrial photosynthesis.

But scientists (Hambler and Henderson, 2022) instead find it is variation high latitude temperatures affecting sea ice extent changes that dominate as drivers of the CO2 (and methane) annual fluxes, not photosynthesis.

They affirm temperature (T) changes lead CO2 change rates by about 7-10 months, suggesting the causality direction is T→CO2, and not CO2→T.

Temperature also drives sea ice peak melt vs. accumulation rates. This cause-effect directionality can also be clearly seen in analyses of sea ice flux vs. annual CO2 rate changes.

“The phase relationship between temperature and carbon dioxide has been examined to help elucidate the possible direction of causality and the lags we find between timeseries are consistent with carbon dioxide being the response variable.”
“Carbon dioxide is very strongly correlated with sea ice dynamics, with the carbon dioxide rate at Mauna Loa lagging sea ice extent rate by 7 months. Methane is very strongly correlated with sea ice dynamics, with the global (and Mauna Loa) methane rate lagging sea ice extent rate by 5 months. Sea ice melt rate peaks in very tight synchrony with temperature in each Hemisphere.”
Image Source: Hambler and Henderson, 2022

2022 WEC: In the Dollar We Trust


Armstrong Economics Blog/World Economic Conference Re-Posted Nov 8, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

At the World Economic Conference in 2021, the Armstrong Socrates model predicted that 2022 was going to be volatile and chaotic featuring a strong US dollar, a huge move in interest rates, a major bond market decline, fertilizer and food shortages, as well as escalating geopolitical tensions in Ukraine.

What now? Socrates forecast that 2023 will be more volatile and chaotic, featuring violent moves across all markets as monetary and geopolitical tensions and debt problems intensify.

At this year’s World Economic Conference, November 11-13, Martin Armstrong will talk about what’s next for the US dollar and other currencies, the liquidity/credit crisis, as well as price targets for oil, gold, stocks, bonds/interest rates, and stocks.

Give yourself an “unfair” advantage over the markets by joining us at this year’s conference remotely or in person. Meet Martin Armstrong – have your questions answered and get the best roadmap for 2023 and beyond in the investment business.

Cooperate or perish – U.N. chief tells COP27


Reuters Published originally on Rumble on November 7, 2022

United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres told leaders gathered at the start of the COP27 summit in Egypt on Monday (November 7) they face a stark choice: work together now to cut emissions or condemn future generations to climate catastrophe.

No COVID Amnesty


Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption Re-Posted Nov 3, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The Atlantic wrote a piece about declaring pandemic amnesty. “We need to forgive one another for what we did and said when we were in the dark about COVID,” Emily Oster wrote. I will not forgive what was done and the permanent damage the COVID zealots caused to the global economy. This was not a simple misunderstanding – it was a deliberate plot to crush the economy and hand all power over to governments.

This goes for the right and left, although the right finally saw that what they were doing was wrong. Trump failed us by implementing Operation Warpspeed and distributing mass vaccines that were not properly tested. Big Pharma was granted full immunity because they knew the vaccines could present issues down the line. America had a strong economy before COVID lockdowns caused mass layoffs, supply shortages, and simply halted life as we once knew it.

Other countries had more severe restrictions, and many felt the need to flee their home country to avoid tyranny. I do not forgive the politicians who forced the masses to take a vaccine against their will simply to participate in society. The unvaccinated were demonized by the politicians who led the masses to believe that COVID was “a pandemic of the unvaccinated,” when that was a blatant lie. Those same politicians frequently broke their own rules because they knew they were baseless. I do not forgive the health agencies who promoted a false agenda and changed definitions and rules at whim. They forced us to cover our faces to simply walk outside despite knowing that masks did not work. I do not forgive the media who fueled the hysteria and banished anyone who questioned “the science.” The fear that spread across the globe was unwarranted.

There should be a trial to discover what actually happened in 2020. The virus’ origins remain a mystery, although it is widely accepted that it did not come about naturally. Children fell behind in school, small businesses closed forever, countless people lost their livelihoods, and mental health issues became more apparent. People were forced into quarantine camps like prisoners in some countries, while others diminished people to their QR codes that restricted their freedom of movement. People DIED.

Despite our current knowledge, governments have refused to let go of the emergency powers granted to them under COVID. How could they ask for forgiveness when this madness is ongoing?