Why is this game mentally and physically so hard to learn… normally every trade has a 50:50 chance but if I enter the market everything is going „different“. Just trade against me and you will become even much richer, its crazy!
I think my biggest mistake is to enter a trade way too early … when I read the market could turn (maybe in 2 weeks) my reaction was /is „going short immediately“ – its just so dumb – but that is what brought me the heaviest losses this year. Shorted the DOW from the 30k level again and again.
Socrates is like a market navigation – I know that – and when the navy says right I drove left – always in fear the market could crash like last February.
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maybe you can wright a bit more on your blog – what were your easiest secrets to become a successful trader. maybe a sample account which etf´s / stocks are promising for the rest of 2021 or some live trading sessions via chat on your socrates platform.
…
Sorry for disturbing you again and again – but I know you are the only man who really know how this game works and you might understand my „little“ problems. BTW: nice call for the top in Bitcoin !!!
THANK YOU
Have a good day and best wishes.
O
ANSWER: The most common problems in trading have been (1) over-trading and (2) anticipation.
Many think they are limiting their risk by trading too frequently. They do not want to risk, say $100, so they continually anticipate a trade and lose $20 ten times in a row. The real secret to trading is recognizing that your opponent is really yourself.
The problem with systems that require human judgment is that they expose your human frailties. Whether it is looking at technical patterns, candlesticks, or wave patterns, all of these forms of analysis require experience and whether you have a natural tendency to be artistic. Those who have an artistic eye can see patterns easier than those that do not. They will see a face in a cloud shape, but others will say they are nuts as it’s just a cloud.
The key is to try to eliminate that human judgment as much as possible. You only need to look at the setup when the price is reached, but during the time target. The monthly Array pinpointed April since the start of this year. Then you look at the Weekly, and it targeted last week with a Directional Change and higher volatility starting this week. Then look at the Daily level. This way, you are not looking at patterns yourself and acting on a hunch. Even the Global Market Watch came up with April as a possible important high, and that is just a pattern recognition model.
With every trade, you must always define where you are RIGHT and when you are WRONG. There are no DEPENDS once you put on a trade. We only have a DEPEND in the setup. Did it reach the time and the price? Other than that, once you are in, some people hate to take the loss because it is acknowledging they were wrong. If you have the setup, then selling against the high on that target week or day with a stop above that high makes sense, and it is a lower risk. If you think it will crash, so you keep selling on a hunch, you will lose.
Consequently, people who are into gold and just blame others because gold has not rallied as they expected are simply people who will never learn how to trade. Mistakes are important. We pay dearly for them, so pay attention. That is how we learn and advance in life. Every parent tells their child not to stick their finger in the flame of a candle. We all do. We have to learn for ourselves.
Remember, you are your real opponent. So make peace with yourself. Come to a truce.
While the jury found Derek Chauvin guilty on all charges, he faces a maximum of 75 years in prison but what he would face is probably the hardest time of all. Why? Being a cop, he will be a target in prison and highly likely to be killed. Thus, they will probably keep him in special housing – protective custody. He will probably wish he got the death sentence for death will be a far easier way to do your time.
Most people would have said guilty even if this were not a politically charged case. But the real problem is all the political comments such as Maxime Waters. With politicians commenting before the verdict and even Biden saying he hoped the jury would make the right decision, there is no way he actually had a fair trial under the law and that can keep the case alive for probably the next decade. In the real world, he would be entitled to a new trial. But this is such a national case, it is hard to expect judges to actually rule according to the law. They would run the personal risk of people claiming they are protecting a racist.
This of course has nothing to do with his actual guilt or innocence. It would have been such a simple matter for politicians to just refuse to comment before the verdict. Most politicians reacted AFTER the verdict which is the way it should have been. That would have killed any appeal concerning the denial of a fair trial. Often, in a high-profile case, the trial might be moved to another court outside the area. But this is a national case so that stands little hope of finding an area that would be unfamiliar.
While in any other case, a defendant would probably win a mistrial motion. But in this case, it is hard to see how a judge would rule in Chauvin’s favor for a new trial without risking their own lives and that of their family. It is not a question of being innocent. It is just a question when politicians do not understand they have to keep their mouths shut and let the jury decide the case – that is what the Constitution is all about. While there will be appeals, I doubt he will win a new trial.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house April 20, 2021 | Sundance | 226 Comments
Police officers were called to the 3100 block of Legion Lane, north of Chatterton Road, in Columbus, Ohio, just after 4:30 pm for a disturbance call. When police arrived 16-year-old Ma’Khia Bryant (black female) was in the process of attempting to stab one woman with a knife and then attempting to stab a second woman (see screengrab below). One officer opened fire, Ma’khia Bryant was shot and killed.
Columbus police released the bodycam footage from the shooting.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house April 20, 2021 | Sundance | 223 Comments
JoeBama injected the advance racial narrative today giving support and cover for rioters in Minnesota if the outcome of the verdict in the Chauvin trial is not the “right” one according to his own views. Biden stated during media remarks: “I’m praying the verdict is the right verdict, which I think is overwhelming in my view.”
To be clear, the intent of these remarks is to give cover to those who will take to the streets and riot if the jury does not “reach the right verdict”…
This is sociopathic level political manipulation by the Obama Chicago crew; the real team behind the administration. Continuing to push the ‘anger games’ in the United States is an ongoing effort of the Obama-minded leftists and communist activist groups who support them.
FULL ANALYSIS – In 2020 President Trump visited a vandalized St. John’s church in Washington DC. Democrats and national media immediately declared it a stunt, a “photo op”. However, at exactly the same time President Trump was visiting St. Johns’, candidate Joe Biden was visiting Bethel AME church in Wilmington, Delaware, and the media were very careful to avoid labeling this captured moment:
Like the organized riots, looting and subsequent media political constructs, the Biden (actually Obama team) strategy was heavily scripted and not organic. From the moment representative James Clyburn aligned his AME church network with Barack Obama’s Chicago machine there was a strategy at work.
Clyburn uses the old-fashioned racial playbook through the AME church network. The AME network includes Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton. Meanwhile Obama historically used the modern race-based network: the Nation of Islam and New Black Panther Party. The NoI and NBPP are also allied with DNC Chairman Tom Perez.
Tom Perez was the head of the DOJ Civil Rights Division… which is not coincidental because the election of 2020 is the second time both networks have merged upon, and attempted to activate, the Black Lives Matter crowd. The first time they merged was in Orlando and Miami during the 2012 “Justice for Trayvon” movement.
Black Lives Matter came out of the organization known as “The Dream Defenders”. The defenders were the younger generational version of the civil rights AME network.
In 2012/2013 President Obama and Tom Perez were able to blend the Dream Defenders into an alignment with Louis Farrakhan, the Nation of Islam, and the New Black Panther Party.
As an outcome of a more bitter ideology, the Dream Defenders became more antagonistic and combative when they launched the rebranded version, ‘Black Lives Matter’.
The newly blended Black Lives Matter network had their first heavy visibility with the “Justice for Mike Brown” movement that destroyed Ferguson, Missouri.
After the Mike Brown pretense collapsed the BLM group moved to Baltimore to exploit the false narrative that surrounded the death of Freddie Gray.
Baltimore was then set ablaze with the leadership of Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake who famously said it was important to give the riot crowd “space to destroy.”
While BLM was fulfilling their role as on-the-street activists, the parents of Trayvon Martin and Mike Brown were making financial trips through the AME church network.
AME holds the faith-based role while advancing an older and more traditional generational approach toward racial grievance. The BLM message targets a younger generation with guilt and influence to break windows and riots on behalf of ‘social justice’. To achieve their common goal each group agreed to, or should I say: ‘learned to‘, stay in their lane.
When Jesse Jackson and/or Al Sharpton made independent moves toward the younger BLM activists they were ridiculed and dispatched. Lessons were learned. The older race hustlers now stick to the AME crowd where there is a generational respect.
♦SLIGHTED – Despite Barack Obama leaning heavily on the AME network in ’07/’08, by the time you get to ’12/’13, without re-election needs, the AME was less valued. The open preference for Obama toward the BLM team was visible. After reelection in 2012 team Obama shifted toward expanding political influence through the Latino community.
Tom Perez and President Obama sought to assemble another race-based coalition with hopes they could merge Latinos (La Raza) with BLM. However, all of this focus on BLM and the “dreamers” created a problem. Without maintenance of the social network the AME connection to the Obama-controlled DNC started to fray.
Obama’s focus on a youth movement meant Democrats were taking AME support for granted. Worse yet, the older AME activists gained nothing from the modern Obama coalition; ‘gaining nothing’ means financial benefits were diminished.
Without their traditional/customary indulgence fees the national AME leadership network, the racial patriarchs of the democrat party, were not happy.
The financial disappointment shows up in many visible ways throughout 2015 and 2016, but the most visible way was in September 2016 during the all black Baptist Convention in Kansas City Missouri. (see here)
There were 25,000 participants at the KC Convention and Hillary Clinton was scheduled to deliver the keynote address. When it came time for her speech only around ten percent of the general session audience showed up.
It was the first visible sign the AME network leadership was not at all happy with the modern DNC party apparatus as constructed by the new Obama coalition.
The AME network felt slighted and they literally left Clinton with tens-of-thousands of empty seats at the convention. CTH noticed but the media mostly ignored. Those of you around at the time will remember the CTH position after this convention optic was the 2016 election looked solid for Donald Trump.
LESSON LEARNED – Fast forward to just before Super Tuesday 2020. Bernie Sanders has momentum, and is about to become unstoppable. Bernie was a threat to remove DNC leadership power the same way Trump removed RNC party power in 2016.
Party power is money; billions from the big club at stake. Now we see why it was critical for Team Obama (BLM) and the AME team to unite quickly that Super-Tuesday weekend; which is exactly what they did.
While James Clyburn quickly notified the AME network, former President Barack Obama activated his control over the DNC network; and signaled to all other primary candidates they needed to drop out in a designed sequence. The DNC Club made offers they could not refuse. Remember, club rules.
James Clyburn delivered on his end (AME), and Obama delivered on his (DNC/BLM). The rest is history. However, within that history is also a realization that all the alignment means nothing if they don’t successfully activate the network. That unified activation is exactly what is happening now in the U.S.
The BLM team has been reactivated back onto the streets to create the Alinsky inspired chaos. Meanwhile the AME team openly embraced Joe Biden and push heavily for his election. As a result the optics of Joe Biden taking a knee at Bethel AME church were heavily scripted, carefully planned and ironically very appropriate.
The media narrative became “everyone must take a knee.” Note: the DNC network always use three-word phrases: “Hope and Change”, “Take A Knee” etc.
Without the AME network Joe Biden did not stand a chance. For all intents and purposes James Clyburn was/is calling all the shots. Clyburn was also the one to approve of Obama’s choice for Biden’s vice-president, Kamala Harris. The tone-deaf and arrogant lessons from Hillary in 2016 loomed heavy as leverage and as a stark reminder of just how important Clyburn was to Obama’s plan to install Joe Biden. The AME network will not let the DNC forget it.
The message from James Clyburn to DNC Chairman Tom Perez, and by extension to Barack Obama, was really simple: without me you would have been dealing with Bernie Sanders, and the DNC would be on the brink of disassembly… so ‘take a knee.’
Obama doesn’t care so long as the larger goals are achieved. Advance radical leftist policies, destroy the American capitalistic system and fundamentally change the United States by diminishing it, while simultaneously keeping all the wealth under the control of an elite group of aligned interests.
Ok, the Associated Press Stylebook has joined the woke crowd. They now have said that a “mistress” to a married man can no longer be called a “mistress,” but “companion, friend or lover.” I think many wives prefer “homewrecker” or just “bitch.” Meanwhile, realtors are told to no longer call the master bedroom “master” because that symbolizes slavery and it should be called the “primary” bedroom.
Kids in New York City schools have been told not to refer to their parents as “parents, mother, or father,” because that will offend some who is an orphan. I suppose the new title should be my “Thing One” and “Thing Two,” but perhaps that might offend those who have a thing in the box as in the “Adam’s Family.” So if you are married with a “mistress” on the side, she is now your “second companion,” and your wife is now your “first companion” in a divorce setting. Does this all change sexual harassment to unsolicited companionship? I guess next it will be wrong to call a politician corrupt. He is just someone who avoids responsibility! Perhaps we have to revise the entire legal system thanks to woke culture!
In addition to our War Index and our Paradigm Shift Index, we are creating a Food Index based upon selected stocks. For now, keep an eye on the closing this month in our War Index. That is hovering right at the Monthly Bullish Reversal.
We are trying to provide tools free of conflicts of interest since we are not brokers in these instruments nor are we allowed to hold positions in them while providing forecasting. Such conflicts of interest are why those with such conflicts cannot be taken seriously by global institutions.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house April 13, 2021 | Sundance | 333 Comments
The Bureau of Labor Statistics highlights some alarming inflation numbers today [Link Here] that are unfortunately, not unexpected…. unless you are a liberally trained economist (most of them) and so the results are surprisingly “unexpected”. But the actual JoeBama-nomic policy is even worse because wages increased less than inflation increased, so real wages (actual purchasing power) decreased. That spells trouble, Trouble.
Middle-class wage earners already know this problem; you are seeing it at the gas pumps and at the grocery store. Fuel prices are rapidly increasing and the amount of inflation in the ‘at home’ food industry (grocery store) is even more concerning.
Let me first walk through the data and then provide some forward analysis with tips to help you offset what is about to hit.
First, it is important to know that BLS price survey data lags actual prices as felt today. The prices you are seeing today/tommorrow at the store and gas pump will not show up in the rolled-up data for over a month…. So the data released today is unfortunately far behind what you are witnessing in real time.
Gas prices rose last month by 9.1%. The year-over-year inflation number is an alarming 2.6 percent last month. Keep in mind that retail grocery prices are not in the inflation number, and they generally follow the same price index as fuel; so it is safe to say monthly grocery store price increases are in the 8 to 10 percent range.
Part of the reason gas and food track together is fuel and energy prices are the #2 cost within the food sector. With packaging prices increasing; with fuel prices and distribution costs increasing; with energy prices increasing; all costs associated with food production, processing, delivery, warehousing and distribution, all end up in the final price at the grocery store.
This problem with inflation is only going to get worse as the FED gets more involved (that’s coming), because interest rates are already disconnected from the economic costs associated with business investment. [Note: the Fed said last year that it would hold its benchmark interest rate near zero, for some time, even if inflation were to rise above its preferred rate.] JoeBama is returning us to a “service driven economy”, and that is a problem for inflation.
President Trump’s MAGAnomic (USA First) increased wages and lowered prices (deflation) {Go Deep} but hurt Wall Street. JoeBama’s globalist policies lower U.S. wages and increase prices (inflation) but increase Wall Street (via multinationals).
Gas prices are going to keep rising because JoeBama is shutting down U.S. energy sources, blocking pipelines and using regulation to stall energy development (including refineries). We will be back to energy dependence soon. This process will continue driving up food prices which is really bad for the middle-class.
In the longer term, the impact of wages purchasing less means middle-class housing prices will drop as people struggle to afford mortgages. However, the Wall Street gains will keep the upper tier real estate market less impacted. You can see how the wealth gap is directly attributed to policy.
Trump decreased the wealth gap with policies that disproportionately (in a good way) helped the middle-class and blue-collar worker by increasing wages. JoeBama expands the wealth gap with policies that disproportionately (in a bad way) hurt the middle-class and blue-collar worker by decreasing real wages and increasing prices. Under JoeBama-nomics the rich get richer and the poor get more poor.
If you know that fuel and food prices are going to increase, you can take action now to plan out your home budget in an effort to offset or cope with the inflation. Example: buy bulk items that can last longer as ingredients. You can also save money by making your own laundry detergent, shop sales, cut coupons and be proactive in preparation for a period of large price increases at the supermarket. Use your freezer and eat out less.
Employment is going to be an issue again. While the current employment picture is good, it will not last into 2022. Make a safety net now (somehow) and start thinking about your longer term expenses and how you can take action now in preparation.
I am not a doomsayer… but I can see when supply chains start to fill up because overall demand begins to stall. We are exactly at that point.
The proposal is to create a global tax rate as world leaders move to create a one-world government. The United Nations, behind the curtain, is preaching that ONLY they can solve the world crisis in climate change, for it requires a single government to control the world. On top of that, Bill Gates has taken over the funding for studies by Ivermectin & Fluvoxamine Clinical Trial Targeting COVID-19. We can bet that given his monopoly over vaccines, taking over the funding of studies to show an alternative to vaccines will by no means be legitimate. The conflicts of interest are vast.
As I have warned, they desperately needed to remove Trump from office because they viewed him as an outsider and someone elected by “populism,” which threatened the world establishment of political control by elite career politicians. They are now moving in high gear to eliminate democracy by 2022, but certainly, their goal is by 2024.
As I have warned, our models of politics have NEVER shown Panic Cycles since the 1930s. It appears that some states are trying to fight back where the Democrats want mail-in ballots that are not secure and same-day registration to vote to ensure there can be no verification of who the people even are. The Supreme Court has abandoned its role to protect our constitution by refusing to hear any of the cases, which may not have overturned the election but would have dealt with changing the rules as they went.
People have no idea what is at stake. These people in power want ABSOLUTE control, and they never want another popular person to run for office anywhere that would dare to threaten their goal of eliminating democracy. Then they want worldwide taxation, and this has been the goal of the United Nations. They argued that climate change could not be combated by a single country. It will take a one-world government, UNELECTED, of course, to rule the world and make regulations that dictate everything right down to what you can and cannot do in your home.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house April 8, 2021 | Sundance | 151 Comments
All of JoeBama’s economic policies mirror the Obama-Biden economic issues. Underline it; emphasize it; note the pattern. The policies that intentionally held down the U.S. economy during the Obama administration are once again being duplicated. It’s Déjà vu all over again.
JoeBama’s energy policy is crushing jobs in key regions where energy jobs are being lost in dramatic fashion. Simultaneously the costs of energy, including gas, are skyrocketing.
The longer-term costs have not yet hit the consumer, but they will soon as inflation will jump dramatically while employment will continue to struggle because consumer demand will drop… The issues create a cascading cycle.
The Biden administration is hiding their actual policy impact by blaming COVID, but that’s not the issue that will hurt blue-collar workers in the longest term. We are going back into the intentional disconnect I have talked about where the stock market (multinationals) will gain, but the U.S. worker economy will suffer lost jobs and lower wages. This dichotomy is by design and the corporate media economists never discuss it.
This reality is a big part of the reason why Pelosi and JoeBama needed to quickly pump money into the working class in order to avoid the pitchforks. However, that $2,000 injection will not last and will be eaten up quickly by the larger and longer term Biden economic policy.
The U.S. economy, which is 70% dependent on consumer spending, is going to contract. This contraction will be “unexpected” by the professional pundit class who check their stock holdings and smile. However, this contraction will not be unexpected by the blue-collar workers who watch their paychecks shrink and their costs to live (electricity, fuel, food prices) increase beyond their earnings.
If you are a blue-collar or white-collar worker in a BLUE region or state, you will feel the impact first. It is going to get very ugly, as noted by the disparity in the unemployment claims this week. Weekly unemployment claims [Dept of Labor pdf here] tell the story.
(CNBC) – […] First-time claims for unemployment insurance rose more than expected last week despite other signs of healing in the jobs market, the Labor Department reported Thursday.
First-time claims for the week ended April 3 totaled 744,000, well above the expectation for 694,000 from economists surveyed by Dow Jones. The total represented an increase of 16,000 from the previous week’s upwardly revised 728,000. The four-week moving average edged higher to 723,750. (link)
The negative results are continuing on a ‘Red State’ -vs- ‘Blue State’ dynamic as noted in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reporting: “In February, the highest unemployment rates among the divisions were in Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA, 10.9 percent, and New York-Jersey City-White Plains, NY-NJ, 10.8 percent.”
For the weekly jobless claims, here’s the breakdown by state:
Do not dismiss these results as just bad policy. There is also a strong ideological component as the Chicago Crew is driving the granular issues on a day-to-day basis. The Obama team intentionally work to diminish the economy of the United States because their “fundamental change” requires it. Joe Biden is an idiot and has no clue about what is structurally behind all the moves…. That’s why Obama installed Kamala Harris.
The professional republican class are corporatists; do not expect them to oppose any of these policies that undermine the U.S. economy and expand globalism. The GOP is paid by the corporations to act stupid and go along.
The road to serfdom is paved with fraudulent intentions….
The Archegos Capital was founded by the former Tiger Management equity analyst, Bill Hwang. Archegos Capital, the “home office” hedge fund owned by Bill Hwang, lost an unbelievable $110 billion in just five days. The strategy was the classic leverage using SWAPS. They never purchased shares of stocks in companies like ViacomCBS. Archegos Capital was entering into equity swaps with numerous different banks and investment banks in a similar manner to what would be called money laundering where we borrow from one bank to pay off another.
By engaging SWAPS, Archegos Capital never actually owned shares of the underlying stock. What they did was effectively leveraged themselves by as much as 500%, which would prove to be their undoing. The problem with such hedge funds is that they really take a personal view of the performance of the market going forward. This is ALWAYS the undoing of these hedge funds going back to Long-Term Capital Management which took a fundamental view that they would make a guaranteed fortune on the high interest of Russian debt and that bribes were being paid in the IMF that they thought would keep the loans going to Russia without end.
I cannot stress enough that ANY fund which is dominated by fundamental expectations that override quantitative models, should be AVOIDED like the plague. We are into a whole new world of finance which is moving in a counter-reaction to the Great Reset. There is NO QUESTION that the March 2020 crash was not only UNIQUE in history, it was clearly an assault that attempted to create another 2007-2009 economic contraction which would have made facilitated the Great Reset by the intentional destruction of the economy. They have had to rely upon the virus scare to accomplished what they had hoped would have be a far easier road.
I have created this site to help people have fun in the kitchen. I write about enjoying life both in and out of my kitchen. Life is short! Make the most of it and enjoy!
This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
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