QUESTION: What is your opinion on Kondratieff Waves?
EH
ANSWER: All those investigating cycles within the economy made a simple mistake. Kondratieff followed agriculture/commodity prices when agriculture accounted for 70% of the GDP pre-19th century. That only began to decline from 1850 forward, dropping to 40% by 1900 as the Industrial Revolution emerged with the invention of the steam engine. Moreover, aside from climate impacting the food supply, there were also wars. So the Kondratieff Wave failed to take into account all of the external forces.
If we extend the K-Wave 54 years from the commodity high in 1919, that brings us to 1973 which was close to the end of Bretton Woods in 1971, and the OPEC Oil crisis. Another 54 years from there will bring us to 2027. Therefore, this may be based entirely on commodities, but they were impacted by weather and war. Note 2027 is the ideal target on our model for war derived from entirely different sources.
There is a cycle of industrialization as well. Rome began as an agrarian society and moved toward trade, which brought them into conflict with Carthage. Rome itself became more like New York and grain was imported from Egypt. As agriculture became more of an import, Rome blossomed like New York into the arts and culture. The shift toward industrialization also resulted in a decline in birth rates for children. Large families were needed in an agrarian society but not so much in a developed society – hence the family laws of Augustus.
The first known Clean Air Act occurred in 535 AD by Emperor Justinian in Constantinople. He proclaimed the importance of clean air as a birthright. “By the law of nature these things are common to mankind—the air, running water, the sea.” Even Cicero wrote about pollution in the ancient city of Rome. This went hand and hand with developed societies and urbanization.
Consequently, when you are looking at long-term cycles, a few hundred years is not enough data. If Kondratieff were alive today and based his study on just the current system, he would be focusing on services rather than commodity-based economies. Agriculture has fallen to just 1.41% of the civil workforce.
QUESTION: Hi Martin, the dollar’s performance bucks logic, especially with Federal Reserve officials spending all week to deny any speculation of a tapering soon in relief measures or an imminent hike in interest rates standing at near zero.
But what made the whole thing even more bizarre was the dollar’s defiance of the rocketing U.S. deficit and debt forecast from the Biden’s administration’s fiscal plans to fight Covid-19. Why is the dollar so strong? and why is Gold selling off? Are they being manipulated? When do you think we will see Gold go above 2k?
ANSWER: The CFTC data reflected the largest week-to-week turn against the dollar since early-Aug 2020 with the USD’s net short reaching its highest mark on record (in dollar terms) at USD35bn on the back of a USD3.7bn increase in favor of most of the currencies it would seem.
You must understand that we are dealing with a complete collapse in economic theories. This is why it may seem weird. That is why I released that book on Manipulating the World Economy. I am finishing a new chapter to add on COVID for the 5th edition. It keeps selling out in a matter of hours. There is a digital version available on our site.
What we are dealing with is the collapse in Keynesian Economics which held that an increase in the money supply would be inflationary which has proven to be false. The Goldbugs disagree with me but that is because they are so brainwashed but that rhetoric. The central banks have used that same theory and increased money supply hoping to create inflation without success. This is how Modern Monetary Theory has emerged saying after 6 years of QE and no inflation you can just print without impact. All of this ignored the bottom line. As long as people do NOT trust the future, they will hoard their money and not spend it even as the supply increases. You need to change that dynamic. They (1) suddenly believe that it will be more costly to wait to buy now, or (2) they lose confidence in the government and refuse to hold their money.
We are in a dangerous transition period and it will be confusing. You have to let go of your Keynesian indoctrination which centers around the Quantity of Money Theory that is what the central banks have continued to try to follow without any success. They do not understand the economy and the solutions are out of their control. They lie on the fiscal side and that has been totally corrupted by the World Economic Forum and Klaus Schwab.
Many people have written in asking what is the future of the markets. While in any election, it is presumed that the right to vote belongs only to the citizens who are alive, there has always been a second vote. That second vote is carried out by international capital. As I have explained many times, the DEFINITION of a bull market is one that rises in terms of ALL CURRENCIES!
The Japanese bubble of 1989 was the same as the 1929 bubble in the USA. You can see that the Nikkei rose in value more so in dollars than in yen because the yen was rising. This is what made the bubble. Everyone was there. When the market broke, capital fled. This is now what we must sort out.
It really does not matter who you voted for, if you cannot look at the markets objectively regardless of what you think, then you will lose. All that matters is how capital will respond. Already people are looking at boycotting not just Facebook and Twitter in mass, but all companies that say they will stop all donations to any republican like Coke.
First came Obama driving a truck straight through the Constitution by calling for the Fundamental Transformation of America, when only he, a community organize-cum-president was making that clarion call.
Next came his 20-year-tenure pastor declaring “God damn America!”
During the 2008 election, Obama threw his pastor under the bus —a political necessity in getting himself elected as the most anti-American president in all of history.
Obama gets to operate from the safety of “Resistance” leader in hiding, with full Secret Service backup
Now that Obama gets to operate from the safety of “Resistance” leader in hiding, with full Secret Service backup, he’s now saying that the Rev. Jeremiah Wright is a “supremely gifted preacher”. “Trinity United Church of Christ, obviously, outside Chicago had an amazing ministry, still does.”
According to sanctimonious Obama, Wright was only taken out of context by the media.
How can “God damn America!” possibly be taken out of context?
The truth is that things have never been the same in America ever since a ribald lie in Christoper Steele’s dossier—financed by presidential candidate Hillary Clinton—including that “racist”, “bigoted” Donald Trump once had prostitutes urinate in the same bed once slept in by Barack and Michelle Obama was accepted as Gospel truth.
Now we come all the way up to Democrat Rep. Emanuel Cleaver who opened the Freak Show known as the first day of the 117th Congress with a prayer ending with “Amen” as “a-woman”.
A Missouri Rep., and former Kansas Mayor, “Reverend the Honorable Emanuel Cleaver was elected when a United Methodist pastor, Cleaver shares much in common with the Rev. Mr. Wright. While Wright is an advocate of Louis Farrakhan, Cleaver is an advocate of the Black Panthers movement?
Here is “a-Woman” Cleaver’s Wikipedia entry:
“Cleaver is a cousin to exiled Kansas City Black Panther leader Pete O’Neal. In 1997, Cleaver attempted unsuccessfully to obtain a pardon for O’Neal from President Bill Clinton. Cleaver is also a cousin to the late Eldridge Cleaver, another famous figure in the Black Panther Party.” (Wikipedia)
With no respect for God, country or family and now hideously drunk with power
With no respect for God, country or family and now hideously drunk with power, Inauguration-bound Democrats are playing not only fast and loose but “cutesy” these days.
Granny Nancy Pelosi, who just squeaked back into the House ‘Squeakership’ with the votes of 3 Covid-19 stricken or quarantined Democrats behind Plexiglass, is wiping out all forms of address she claims will reflect on gender neutrality.
In other words, you can no longer call the ‘person’ who carried you for nine months before bringing you to life on Earth, Mother anymore—and only Nancy Pelosi—but not anyone else can refer to her as “Granny”.
The first sheep to bleat in Pelosi’s pasture is Black Panther advocate the Rev. Mr. Cleaver, who replaced the word ‘Amen’ with “a-woman”.
A common English translation of the word “Amen” include “verily”, “truly”, and “so be it”. It’s not a gendered word.
“Missouri Rep. Emanuel Cleaver, a Democrat, delivered the opening prayer on the first day of the 117th Congress on Sunday that started with a hint of yearning for less political division. (Washington Examiner, Jan. 3, 2020)
“Eternal God, we bow before your throne of grace as we leave behind the politically and socially clamorous year of 2020,” Cleaver said. “May we model community healing, control our tribal tendencies, and quicken our spirit.”
But at the end, Cleaver injected a political statement.
“Amen, and a-woman,” he said.
What “woman”? The word has just been totally wiped from the public lexicon!
“The inclusion of “a-woman” came as Democrats are proposing a rule change that replaces the use of words like father, mother, son, daughter, brother, sister, uncle, aunt, and more with gender-neutral words. Democrats defended the measure on Sunday amid Republican criticism. (Washington Examiner)
Meanwhile In the myriad of words cancelled by Democrats is the Latin one that best describes Democrats of the day.. That word is “ignoramus”.
“Calling someone an ignoramus is an insult — it’s a colorful way to comment on a person’s ignorance or stupidity. The word comes right from the Latin ignoramus, literally “we do not know,” which was a legal term in the 16th century that could be used during a trial when the prosecution presented insufficient evidence.” (Vocabulary.com)
QUESTION: Martin, Thanks for a great report on your private blog regarding population and cycles. These Great Reset people are killing the whole world! As an American who has lived in China since 1996, and has followed you since your incarceration, I am a huge believer in cycles and a student of Asian philosophy and martial arts.
I am however having problems reconciling your prediction of the center of Finance moving to China with what I am currently seeing. Please tell me what I am overlooking. Yes, I understand that the west is going to decline compared to its current state while China rises but there still needs to be certain structures in place.
To get the power to shift to a different country you need:
Stability (China has this)
Innovation; “the parent of prosperity” ( Money tends to follow innovation and this requires an environment where people are free to tinker and the government does not overly tax or try to assume too much control) It’s a bottom-up process that has not been part of China since the Song Dynasty. So if they are returning to the Innovative Song dynasty they need to rule like the Song did. China has been going away from this since Xi came to power. Locking up its entrepreneurs or stealing their innovations and giving them to their National Champions. If this idea of National Champions had happened in the US we would still be using rotary dialed phones and driving Edsels!
Rule of Law: i. Bankruptcy China asked AmCham and other chambers to help to rewrite its bankruptcy law to enable capital to be quickly redeployed. I have helped to take a few companies through bankruptcy and they still have a very long way to go before capital can be efficiently redeployed. ii. Contracts are enforced by the Chinese government on foreign companies but there is no practical way to enforce them on the government.
Markets i. Credit markets The markets are not open to the public ii. Capital Markets. For every sin, that we read about on Wall Street my contacts inform me that China is two to three times worse. Ponzi and Madoff are alive and well in China.
FX and convertibility of the Chinese Yuan (The capital account is currently not open to the capital markets)
What am I missing? Thanks in advance to you and your team for addressing this issue.
JB
ANSWER: This is not a personal forecast. But keep in mind that the time frame is post-2032, which will actually be after 2037. So a lot can change between now and then and Xi Jinping will be 84 in 2037. The most critical factor is the rule of law. If that is not definitive, you cannot write any contract because there is no way to enforce it. The culture of copyright infringement was prevalent in Hong Kong where people would come visit offices with knock-off Rolex watches to Gucci bags. A lot needs to change, but the decline from the West is critical. What we are witnessing with this Great Reset is the desperate attempt to keep the governments in power which will only lead to fragmentation. So China simply will become #1 because the West will break apart.
The tyranny of this Triumvirate is to rule the world from the United Nations. China will not surrender to this absurd tyranny. But in the process, they will indeed destroy the very consumer-based economy that was so critical to world peace. Neither China nor Russia will surrender to this tyranny.
Moreover, China moving to a digital currency is also to bypass SWIFT. They will create their own financial network that in the years ahead will be an alternative to the West rather than subordinate to the West. China is well aware that the core of the US economy is the consumer market. They are intent on developing that and this is how they surpass the USA as it stupidly allows the Triumvirate to destroy the foundation of the Western economy. They will surpass the USA in e-commerce.
We have issued a special report on the Sovereign Debt Crisis and why we even have this Great Reset and where we are headed. This report provides also a historical review of previous sovereign debt defaults and what was the outcome. Some people try to claims that this is the precursor to revolution. That only reveals that they are engaging in sophistry for that is by no means the routine outcome. There have been serial defaults by many nations even in Europe such as Spain and Greece. The Roman Empire never had a national debt. So those claiming the debt default produces revolution is just not true. Historically, there were no pension funds and rarely were there social programs before the Great Depression. We have to set the record straight in order to truly understand what lies ahead.
QUESTION: Are the central bankers really behind this digital currency? Will that end the dollar as the reserve currency?
Thank you for sharing your experience.
HV
ANSWER: No the central bankers are NOT the instigators. It was Christine Lagarde who when at the IMF was threatening counties they would be blocked from Swift if they did not give up all those who had accounts in these tax havens. Germany went as far as to violate Swiss law and paid bribes to bankers to leak the records of the firms they worked for, which not even Hitler went that far. The entire digital currency idea was pushed by Christine Lagarde while at the IMF. But look closely, she is also a board of trustee member of Schwab’s World Economic Forum along with the new head of the IMF Kristalina Georgieva. It was Schwab who got Legarde put into the IMF and then he put her in the central bank. He then had Georgieva put into the IMF.
People who always point to the central bankers really do not know what is going on behind the curtain. Schwab is in league with Bill Gates and George Soros. Gates was pushing the digital currency at the United Nations. Melinda Gates was pushing the digital currency at the G20. It was Gates directing Modi to cancel the currency in India and he did so without ever telling the central bank in advance!
All this nonsense that we are moving to this digital currency system that will dethrone the dollar is just laughable. The three main elements that are the reason why the dollar is the reserve currency has been
the US never canceled the currency,
there are no capital-controls so anyone can issue bonds in dollars worldwide, and
the US has the world’s largest consumer economy which has funded the rise of China, Russia, Japan, and Germany along with all of Europe.
A digital currency does not override any of that. China knows what is unfolding and they are doing two main strategies that will impact the dollar long-term – not short-term.
They are building their own consumer economy to reduce reliance on the West
They are developing their digital currency to REPLACE the Swift system
This conspiracy against the central banks has been going on a long-term and to me, it just seems to be a diversion to keep people looking in the wrong direction. I have worked with more central banks around the world than probably any independent analyst/adviser. I do not talk about theory – it comes from experience!
A number of people have asked for a confirmation of the array analysis. Here you can see that the Turning Point was November, and then we have Jan/Feb. Not that we have back-to-back Directional Changes in November and December. Whenever the Directional Change aligns with the Turning Point, that is a very important combination indicating a significant target. Volatility will start to rise in December and scale into a Panic Cycle by next June.
Many people have asked WHAT is behind the fact that gold declined and Bitcoin rallied. It appears to be the same trend that we saw coming out of China. It is not that Bitcoin is better than gold, as many are asking, but it seems to be a means to move money across borders outside of simple bank wires. With the world in absolute chaos, forget hyperinflation. There is a far greater risk of the government canceling currencies and they want to cancel the debt. They have reached the end of the rope and what is left is about to break. This wild theory of hyperinflation is just not plausible. They cannot keep finding by borrowing. This is what the Great Reset is all about — altering the entire system because it is about to collapse anyway.
Global debt is exploding thanks to the deliberate COVID-19 manufactured crisis. It is approaching $280 trillion going into year-end. We should no longer call it even debt because at this point, they are just creating the money and the central banks are buying it. Moreover, there is ABSOLUTELY no intention whatsoever to pay back anything.
Here is Trudeau, PM of Canada, who completely misrepresents the debt, and refuses to answer the question simply saying interest rates are at historic lows. They have created this crisis in order to default on the debt using the Coronavirus scam as their excuse. I cannot stress enough, GET OUT OF ALL GOVERNMENT DEBT ON ALL LEVELS – PERIOD!
Meanwhile, Trudeau has committed Canada to the World Economic Forum’s Agenda 2030.
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This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
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