The Tensions Between France & Germany


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; You commented briefly when you stepped off the stage at the door that the likelihood of war between France and Germany would rise again but not until 2032. Might you elaborate on that for a moment please.

KD

ANSWER: In modern times, there have been three times that war between France and Germany have erupted – 1870, 1914, and 1940. These were as follows:

  • The 1870 Franco-Prussian War, Prussians invaded France when tensions rose Prussia’s influence in central Europe.
  • The 1905 there was the Schlieffen Plan (German Empire’s plan for a two-front war against France and Russia).
  • The 1914 Battle of the Marne, the Schlieffen Plan  implemented at the outset of World War I.
  • The May 1940 Battle of France, Nazi Germany’s invasion of the Ardennes and the Low countries.

The cyclical forces of this conflict is building once again but it is not likely to reach a peak until 2032. The risk of war on this level will increase after 2032 and this may have more of a connection to the refugee crisis than anyone suspects. Keep in mind that Southern Germany still celebrates its war with Prussia as well.

The Phillips Curve No Longer Works


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Thank you for coming to Frankfurt. Nobody gets that big of an audience here ever. What you illustrate with the three faces of inflation means that the Philips Curve no longer functions. Was this something like Kondratieff’s Wave that it was based upon a period that is outdated?

Thank you once again. I hope you do more of these type events.

BC

ANSWER: Yes. The Phillips curve is a graph describing the relationship between wage changes and price level changes on the one hand and the unemployment rate on the other.  The basic assumption was a fixed exchange rate so there was no issue of currency inflation. The Phillips curve was published in 1958 by the English statistician and economist Alban William Housego Phillips in the magazine Economica. It has been modified several times since. Paul A. Samuelson and Robert Merton Solow in 1960 expanded the Phillips curve. They created a link between unemployment and the change in the inflation rate but this was again under Bretton Woods and a fixed exchange rate system. The Phillips curve  assumptions are simply irrelevant today and yet central banks have continued to try to manipulate society based upon these antiquated theories. Every assumption they make to manage the economy is dead wrong right down to the Quantity of Money Theory

The Month-End Closing for July 2017


The dollar correction for this Year from Political Hell is still in motion, but there is no major change in trend that is at hand. In the British pound, the Monthly Bullish Reversal stands at 13485 level on cash.  In the Euro, the Monthly Bullish remains up at 12885 with a Minor Monthly Bullish at 12570. In the Canadian dollar futures the Monthly Bullish stands at 88360 with a Minor Monthly Bullish at 80040.

In gold, the number has not change and is still 1362. We have a Minor Monthly Bullish at 1358. In Silver the Monthly Bullish remains at 2310 with a Minor Monthly Bullish at 2024.

In the Dow, support lies at 2099400 and only a monthly closing beneath that would signal a short-term correction is at hand of any importance. Meanwhile, our key resistance level remains intact at the 23000 level. Despite the reactionary rally in the Euro, the European share markets are in a bit of trouble. The high in the DAX took place on June 20th, 2017 at 1295154. Here we have already elected two Weekly Bearish Reversals and we look to 1185000 as the next critical weekly level for any support. On the monthly level, the DAX did an Outside Reversal to the Downside on a monthly level leaving the May target as indeed the highest monthly closing. This warns that the critical support lies at 1147975 on a monthly closing basis.

This Year from Political Hell has actually been extended probably into February 2018. The Italian elections should have come in during this September. However, if they took place then, the MPs who were elected would not be eligible for their pensions for the timing would be too short. Therefore, the elections will most likely be extended into February. It will be Italy that could still break with the Euro. The Italians do not share the same concerns about preventing European war as is the case in France and Germany. The Italians have been on both sides whereas the fight has been three times in a row between Germany and France. The Italians are more along the lines of what are you doing for me lately. The Greeks may have just given up all hope of breaking away right now and will have to suffer even more before they rise up. What may bring Greece to its knees is actually the Refugee Crisis. Where Greece was the popular spot for vacations for the Northern Europeans, because of the refugees the hot spot has shifted to Portugal. Greece needs tourism and so does Italy. In both cases, the refugees are deterring tourism which both countries need desperately.

The Monetary Crisis still seems ready for its turn, but most likely following the first quarter 2018. We intend to update the Monetary Crisis Cycle report in the months ahead.

The Refugee Crisis is now Causing Migration of Youth to America


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I read your report that the politicians we have here in Europe think they need these refugees to pay future pensions. I read that the IMF has also confirmed your reporting. I understand you also meet with government. Do they ever listen to you that they are destroying our countries here in Europe with high unemployment so the youth are leaving migrating abroad to find work and then all these refugees are supposed to help Europe when our own children are forced to leave. I do not understand how the elite in Brussels cannot see what they are doing to Europe. Will then ever listen to you?

ANSWER: No. Government will never change course until they are confronted with the crisis. This is the same worldwide. So it is not unusual. They will never change course and admit what they have done is seriously changing the history and culture of Europe just as the barbarians that took over Rome destroyed Roman values and culture. You are correct this view that they need the refugees to save socialism is indeed in a paper of the IMF. You are also correct that the youth in Italy are looking to migrate to America in particular hoping for careers and a future that they do not see in Europe.

The barbarians eventually seized control of the army and once that took place, their leader Ricimer began to put puppet emperors on the throne starting with Majorian (457-461 AD) who he later arrested, tortured, and then beheaded installing the next more docile puppet emperor Severus III (461-465 AD). Ricimer kept a series of puppet emperors in place because he was not a patrician worthy of the Roman throne.

RomulusAug-AU2

Interesting, serious bear markets decline for 19 years as did gold from 1980 to 1999. The final fall of Rome was also 19 years from the first puppet emperor in 457 until the last to hold the throne – Romulus Augustus in 476AD.

They say when Rome fell, the people were still laughing. They did not pay attention to the trend that was unfolding just as many cannot see the trend today. This is just part of the process and it is an invasion and takeover, not an assimilation of people.

 

Britain to Raise Retirement Age to 68 to Try to Save Pensions


 

The Work and pensions secretary David Gauke have revealed that parliament proposes to raise the pension age to 68. The pension crisis that is brewing throughout Western culture reflects the insanity of lowering interest rates to try to “stimulate” the economy. This policy has set the stage for the next great crisis brewing, which will expose the postwar Socialism is just a total failure.

The rise in government on average to about 40% of GDP means that this is consuming the wealth of every nation and suppressing the economic growth. This is forcing people to work longer to survive and hence they do not retire quickly into the sunset holding on to jobs that then in turn cause higher unemployment in the next two generations. There is not much we can do about this because politicians will never act to prevent a crisis, they perfect to act only when a crisis emerges. Consequently, the Pension Crisis is simply unavoidable.

Schulz Warning if Italy is Not Given Aid by the EU The Refugee Crisis Will Explode Again


SPD chancellor candidate Martin Schulz has come out and warned that if Italy is not given support, then it will send the refugees to Germany which it can no longer afford to accept any more. Schulz is warning that the refugee crisis in Germany will explode, IF Italy is not provided support from the European Union. Schulz is saying that since 2015, over one million refugees had infiltrated Germany and it is just beyond control. The question becomes whether this will get much worse and disrupt the German elections in the come of September.

If the EU does not stop the refugee invasion, they are going to suffer a tremendous economic decline beyond imagination going into 2021.

Poland Suggests Using Refugees to Form an Army – Very Bad Idea


Nike-Riot

Poland’s foreign minister has proposed forming an army out of the refugee men arriving in Europe. His logic is that Poland could ill-afford to send its troops to the Middle East. That may sound good use of refugees, but there is a serious problem. If Europe creates an army out of refugees, Brussels will then have the power to defend itself from Europeans with an effective mercenary army. This is the most dangerous proposition ever for an army with no community ties to the people will easily be used to oppress the people. Just look at the history of the Nika Revolt in Byzantium as an example. The emperor used foreign troops to slaughter the protesters when the local army would not kill its own people.

Martin Armstrong ✹ Why The Next Major Economic Collapse Is Rapidly Approaching? (MUST LISTEN)- upda


Published on Jul 17, 2017

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China – A Different Central Bank Altogether


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I believe you once said at your conference that you were surprised when you were asked to fly to Beijing to meet with the central bank because you were not an academic, but a trader. I think you said when you got there they were traders working in the bank, not academics. Did I recall that story correctly?

ANSWER: Yes. The central bank had sent staff to work on trading desks around the world in Tokyo, New York, and London. They then returned to run the bank. When the 1997 Asian Currency Crisis hit, I was very surprised that they asked me to come and not some academic. When I got there, I discovered that they were traders and we spoke the same language.

When I returned to the States, people I knew in the Fed and in Treasury called to ask me my opinion after these meetings with the Chinese government. I responded: It was great. They only hired people with experience!

I understand so many people think China does whatever I say. I think the real story is they may take what I say, but they see it through the eyes of a trader rather than an academic. Hence, they adopt it quickly but never blindly. They have a good nose for trends themselves.

Google’s Antitrust Case in Europe


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Is Google really violating European antitrust laws to warrant such a huge fine or is this really a trade war?

KQ

ANSWER: It’s a trade war. Granted, the EU hit Google with a record-breaking fine of €2.4 billion ($2.7 billion, £2.1 billion) by European regulators who accused the California-based technology giant of abusing its dominant position and promoting its own shopping service in its search results over those of its competitors.

The European Union Commission claims this is the culmination of a multiyear investigation into Google’s business practices dating back nearly a decade. This in itself proves this is nonsense for the past decade has witnessed a dramatic change in how products are being sold. Amazon has been growing tremendously in sales putting many stores out of business like Sears.

Things are changing. The beginning of this whole antitrust violation took place with the Sherman Antitrust Act passed in the USA back in 1890. The theory was you had all these small railroad companies and they were merging into large regional railroads. The politicians called this a monopoly that put people out of jobs as companies merged and eliminate duplication.

Once again we have dramatic changes to the retail industry. The politicians behind this nonsense of fining Google are just (1) greedy and (2) ignorant. Amazon is already starting to create showrooms where you can go at look at products and then it will be delivered to you in days. This is the way retail is changing. Here is a search I entered for a Sony Laptop. Yes at the top it come up with Google shopping and it says sponsored. However, it shows competitive brands. At the bottom of the page is Amazon. Yes they are competing against Amazon. Does that warrant a huge fine or are politicians just trying to come up with creative means to get more money because they are dead broke?