Tag Archives: Understanding cycles

Apr 9 2020

Value of a Currency


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics

Re-Posted Apr 9, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Hi Mr. Armstrong,
You have said that money is not gold, or silver, or oil, or fiat currency, but rather represents the collective elbow grease and ingenuity of a people. From the work of Socrates, which country or countries best typify this concept and therefore will become the better countries to live in, so that we may guide our families and children in that direction?
As always best to you and your vision, and thank you.
MB

ANSWER: What made America great was not our resources. The Silver Democrats tried to force a higher silver to gold ratio and were bribed by the silver miners. When the world was on the gold standard, that dictated the value of a currency in international FOREX markets because the value of the currency was just the metal content. Napoleon attempted to create that standard and the idea, known as the Latin Monetary Standard, was used after his defeat where the coins were all of the same weight and purity.

However, great disruptions to this standardized system of metals repeatedly led to major economic upheavals. The economy of Florence suffered from the tremendous economic crisis and people were burning down the houses of bankers because they blamed them without understanding the real cause. Due to the war between France and England, the French debased the coinage. This drove the price of silver up dramatically where there had been a two-tier monetary system — gold for international transactions and silver for domestic. Since wages were paid in silver, as the price rose, employers could no longer afford to operate and the economy crashed with a vast rise in unemployment.

Only after World War I and II did modern society begin to see that the value of a currency was not simply the metal content. There was a premium even over gold’s value attributed to the Romans, as was the case with silver and the Greeks. This is proven by so many surrounding nations imitating their coinage with the same metal content and weight showing that there was a premium over the raw metal.

China, Japan, and Germany all rose from the ashes because their people were productive. Once the unions began and extorted higher sums of wages beyond competitiveness, the USA began to see its labor move offshore for it was overpriced relative to the world because of also taxes on labor — not merely the hourly wage.

Adam Smith in his “Wealth of Nations” saw that it was not simply metal. If a farmer or candlestick maker sold something from London to Paris, they both returned with gold. It was the value of their labor that mattered.

Unfortunately, the socialists are leading the charge and have conspired together to bring down the economy to force political change. They are also weakening the West and inviting war. Just as Rome saw its economy decline sharply within 8.6 years during the 3rd century, the barbarian invasions began. These socialists have no idea what they have unleashed. The world economy will NEVER be the same all because of a pretend virus that has a death rate of 10% of the annual flu.

Unfortunately, the baton will pass to Asia. The West will be engulfed in civil strife. The Socialists have killed the economy precisely as did the communists during their revolutions in Russia and China. We have a turning point in 2021 even for Russia.

Industrialization in the Soviet Union was a process of accelerating the industrial potential of the Soviet Union to reduce the economy’s lag behind the developed capitalist states, which was carried out from May 1929 to June 1941.

The official task of industrialization was the transformation of the Soviet Union from a predominantly agrarian state into a leading industrial one. The beginning of Socialist industrialization as an integral part of the “triple task of a radical reorganization of society” (industrialization, economic centralization, collectivization of agriculture and a cultural revolution) was laid down by the first five-year plan for the development of the national economy lasting from 1928 until 1932.

In Soviet times, industrialization was considered a great feat. The rapid growth of production capacity and the volume of production of heavy industry (4 times) was of great importance for ensuring economic independence from capitalist countries and strengthening the country’s defense capability

Apr 8 2020

Martin Armstrong Answers Questions — Q&A 4-7-2020


Blog/Q&A

Posted Apr 7, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION #1: Marty, you always said that gold and the dollar would rise during the monetary crisis cycle. I must admit, the fundamentals always seem to unfold to support your forecast. The article on the dollar shortage is really enlightening. The gold bugs hate you because you do not support their hatred for the dollar. You have taught me to see the world from a real hedge fund manager’s eyes. So do you see this dollar crisis taking down the IMF?

Thank you

DF

QUESTION #2: Martin, Why do you seem so surprised about the chaos Soros and Gates are creating? Didn’t your (ECM) model predict it? Some events or Some person(s) needed to be the catalyst. Change is inevitable.

Resistance is futile.

JC

QUESTION #3: What do you think of Icke saying there is no virus?

HS

COMMENT #4: Even if Dow briefly touchs 28K I am done for the year:) 35% up in dollar terms , who cares what happens next:)) On a different note if the dollar shortage is as large as you have been writing I think Fed has done a decent job and kept DXY at 100 (so far) .

SM

ANSWER: There is a serious risk that like the ECB, the IMF is stepping into something they have no clue what is going on. The total outstanding private corporate debt from emerging markets is more than $2 trillion in size and denominated in US dollars. However, the total market is $15 trillion. This is astonishing and the goldbugs harp on the dollar debt and hyperinflation and the dollar must turn to dust. They remain clueless that ONLY a rise in the dollar will blow-up the world economy unleashing massive sovereign debt defaults.

Yes, the ECM has been projecting this would be a commodity wave of inflation, but I have stressed many times, this is not the traditional boom inflation. It is inflation on the back of a SHORTAGE, not speculative demand.

I appreciate the line from the Borg, “Resistance is Futile.” I think if we do not resist, I hate to see the world we leave behind. As I have also said many times, I thank God I am not 18 years old. The youth will never know the freedoms of the prior generations.

As far as claims there is no virus, sorry I do not buy that. My cousin is a nurse who has been attending to these people. She has been infected and was nowhere near 5G. The virus exists. We have many doctors who are readers and they share information. They are not the propaganda machine.

Apr 6 2020

Do Tall Buildings Signal a Recession or Depression?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles

Re-Posted Apr 6, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

Madison Square Garden was constructed in New York City and was opened on September 29, 1891. The 304-foot (92.66 m) building had been completed a year earlier and was the second-tallest in New York City, just in time for the Panic of 1893. It was named after James Madison, the fourth president of the United States. The first garden, leased to P. T. Barnum, had no roof and was inconvenient to use during winter.

It was demolished after 11 years and a new Madison Square Garden was designed by noted architect Stanford White. It was constructed by a syndicate which included J. P. Morgan, Andrew Carnegie, P. T. Barnum, Darius Mills, James Stillman, and W. W. Astor. The third version began construction in 1925 after it was demolished and that lasted until 1968. The fourth version began construction in 1968 and was completed in 1969. That too was timed with the Panic of 1968.

The Flatiron Building marked the Panic of 1903. This was a triangular 22-story building that became the landmark building at the time. Construction was completed in 1902, and it was one of the tallest buildings in the city at 20 floors high. For the Panic of 1907, it was the Singer Tower on Broadway. With 47 stories, it was the tallest building in the world from 1908-1909.

There is the well-known story of how the Empire State Building, which was 102 stories, became the symbol of the Great Depression in the 1930s. The design for the Empire State Building was changed fifteen times to make it the world’s tallest building as a symbol of hope during the Great Depression. Construction began on March 17, 1930, and the building opened thirteen and a half months afterward on May 1, 1931. Despite the publicity surrounding the building’s construction, its owners failed to make a profit until the early 1950s.

As you can see from the chart above, after the 45% correction in the Dow, the market began to bounce. The project of the Empire State Building went ahead. Many assumed that the market was recovering and new highs would come again. Little did they know that most of Europe, South America, and Asia permanently defaulted on their debts in 1931.

The original World Trade Center destroyed in 2001 was a large complex of seven buildings in the Financial District of Lower Manhattan. It opened on April 4, 1973. This became the symbol of the 1974 Crash and the beginning of Stagflation. Likewise, the Aon Center in Los Angeles opened in 1973 which also marked a peak in the economy.

The 1987 Crash was marked by One Liberty Place in Philadelphia, and then the SEC later destroyed Drexel Burnham with Michael Milkin because of their competition with New York City. The SEC never has destroyed any firm in New York City as they have done in Philadelphia and Chicago.

Petronas Towers in Kuala Lumpur became the symbol of the 1997 Asian Currency Crisis and the 1998 Crash due to Long-Term Capital Management. That was the mass liquidity crisis from the emerging market collapsed that began in Russia.

In New York City, construction began on April 27, 2006, of the new One World Trade Center just in time for the Panic of 2007. It did not open until November 3, 2014.

The  Burj Khalifa, known as the Burj Dubai, also became the symbol of the 2007-2009 crash.

Like the wise tale that markets go up with women’s skirts and fall when then drop back to their ankles (i.e. Roaring 20s), the competition to create skyscrapers and always build the biggest in the world has also been an interesting correlation to major crashes in the world economy. The Jeddah Tower(Arabic: برج جدة‎), also known as the Mile-High Tower, was to begin construction in 2008. It was put on hold. This promised to be the tallest building in the entire world. It appears that plans for such buildings coincide with the boom days. All work was paused with the tower about one-third completed due to labor issues with a contractor following the 2017–19 Saudi Arabian purge. This too seems to be the symbol of this correction and the crisis in the Middle East.

Categories: Understanding Cycles
Apr 4 2020

Iran & War


Armstrong Ecomonic Blog/Energy

Re-Posted Apr 4, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, your forecast for Iran back in 2012 has been correct. It picked 2016 which in January the International economic sanctions on Iran were lifted after UN said it was satisfied with progress on fulfilling the nuclear agreement. President Rouhani then embarked on the first European state visit of an Iranian president for 16 years. But that same month is when the serious rift in relations took place after Saudi Arabia executed a leading Shia cleric Nimr al-Nimr. During May 2017,  Hassan Rouhani won re-election as president.= and by June that is when there was a co-ordinated attack on parliament and the shrine of Ayatollah Khomeini. That is when the Islamic State group claimed responsibility. That sparked major protests in December 2017 over economic grievances. The next year in 2018, President Trump announced the US withdrawal from the 2015 international deal on Iran’s nuclear programme. Iran in turn warned that it will begin increasing its uranium enrichment capacity if the deal collapses as a result of the US move.

I have followed your report and it has been truly remarkable for someone that is covering the entire world. My question is now, your array showed the 2016 turning point which was amazing, but it also showed 2020. There are increasing tensions once again. Do you have an update on this forecast?

Thank you

ABSR

ANSWER: There is a rising tide in Iran toward a confrontation. In February 2020, the hardliners scored big wins in parliamentary elections, but this was with a record low turnout of only 42.6% while any moderate would-be candidates were barred from running for not meeting strict eligibility criteria.

Back in 2013, the State Department blew everyone away after admitting that they officially and intentionally deleted several minutes of video footage from a 2013 press briefing to mislead the press over the Iranian nuclear deal under the Obama Administration. Then in 2o16, Iran also tried to sell oil in euros in a futile attempt to end oil’s link to the dollar. They clearly failed to understand this was not a SERIOUS blow to the USA, but in fact, they took on the currency risk of the euro and lost.

It appears that 2020 is the low for oil and we should see tension rise sharply with Iran which will help oil into 2024.

Apr 3 2020

Socrates & the Whole


Armstrong Economics Blog/Socrates

Re-Posted Apr 2, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong – as a subscriber to Socrates, I find it remarkable how prescient its analyses have been. (Wish I were a better trader to benefit more financially! But that’s another story – live & learn. At least Socrates has kept me out of trouble, so far.)

My observation/question is, now that Vermont has gone full-on Politburo, directing retailers to “CEASE IN-PERSON SALES OF NON-ESSENTIAL ITEMS”:  I wonder if the timeline for the dissolution of the Union has accelerated? When Government decides what is essential, we’re all in trouble.

Thank you again for your work.
N.A.

REPLY: Yes, Socrates has done something that no human could have ever foreseen. Even its forecast that unemployment would be like a slingshot I questioned myself since that has never taken place in history. Only something that can analyze and do so without passion, bias, or conflicts of interest would survive such an event. Not even during the Great Depression did we see unemployment rise so fast.

This has NOT been about merely forecast the collapse of the stock market. This is far greater than any single market forecast. If you cannot see the whole, you will never understand what is taking place within a single market.

Just so everyone understands, Socrates is not even in one location. It is monitoring the world from multiple locations around the globe to prevent it from being blocked at least by a single governmen