Merz is putting all of Germany in the crosshairs. His thirst for war with Russia makes him unfit to be in charge of parking meters for the government. Ask yourself if Germany were at war with Ukraine and Putin said Here are long-range missiles so that you can attack Berlin and Frankfurt, would Germany look to just Ukraine or to Russia orchestrating the whole war?
The tension will escalate starting next week. They will become more open by the week of 08/04, and then the week of 08/18.
To put this mildly, the Euro also has a Panic Cycle in 2026, as does our Cycle of War. Model. Merz is a traitor to the German people. The FIRST DUTY of any head of state is to protect his own people, not throw them into war on the directions of NATO and other warmongers. He should be dragged out of his office in chains. People often wondered if they could have stopped World War II if someone had assassinated Hitler. I fear they will one day hypothetically wonder the same about Merz.
Europe is pushing DESPERATELY for war. This is not going to end well. The third time will NOT be the charm for an attempted conquest of Russia. The EU will lose, and it will no longer exist. The target of 2026.03 will be the culmination of the 8th 8.6-year wave from the Treaty of Rome, signed in 1957.23. The final capitulation of the EU is expected by 2030.
QUESTION: After reading you for more than 10 years, I understand that you are the best at geopolitics because you honestly know history. Medvedev has called on Vladimir Putin to consider pre-emptive strikes against the US and its allies in response to Donald Trump’s ‘theatrical’ 50-day deadline. What would your advice be to Putin, since no leader can do what Trump has demanded and remain in power?
PD
ANSWER: I would give the West 31 days to (1) remove Zelensky & hold an election in Ukraine, (2) honor the Minsk Agreement as the West guaranteed, and let the Donbas vote on separation as took place in Czechoslovakia and the breakup of Yugoslavia. If that is not carried out, the Ukrainian people have 2 weeks to vacate Kiev, and it will be nuked.
NATO will claim that they will target Moscow, and I would then lock in every capital of Europe. If Trump intervenes, I would target Washington, NYC, Chicago, and LA without dropping leaflets. Maybe then the people will get off their ass and remove the leaders of Europe, and the American Neocons should be hauled out and imprisoned for a usurpation of power, and that would be using the West’s tactics of REGIME CHANGE in reverse.
Let us not forget that the Neocons of the US and Europe deliberately created this civil war in Ukraine. John McCain and Victoria Nuland overthrew the Ukrainian government and installed a puppet regime. They lied to the Ukrainian people, telling them this was their moment for peace and it was just about them. What bullshit!
Victoria Nuland decided who would run Ukraine, not the people. Her gaffe was “F the EU”, she was deciding the fate of Ukraine. She installed her UNELECTED puppet and instructed Turchynov to attack the Donbas. The Ukrainian people were lied to by Zelensky, who ran on a promise of peace.
Our press always condemns Putin and will never tell the truth because the Neocons pay them to drum up the war at all costs. WAR, WAR, WAR. Why? That leads to massive death, the destruction of our economic future, and war never ends as expected. The bulk of our national debt is the cost of the endless wars of the Neocons, which Trump promised to stop, so much for democracy.
The death toll was 130,000 when Zelensky was running, and he promised peace. It is now approaching 1.5 million, and over 8 million have fled the country. Russia was optimistic that Zelensky’s election would end the war. He has suspended the election, assumed a dictatorial role, and takes his orders from NATO. No major country suspended elections during World War I or World War II.
The Ukrainian people have been played as fools, denied any democratic process. What I hear behind the curtain is that nobody cares about the Ukrainian people, what the hell, they were all communists and Nazis before anyhow.
It was Boris Johnson who flew to Kiev and instructed Zelensky that he was not allowed to sign any peace deal. The Ukrainians I speak to ask, are they allowed to have peace without permission from London, Paris, Berlin, and Washington?
The Neocons only care about winning. They do not care about the cost, the people who die on the battlefield, nor the “collateral damage” to civilians. World War II was the deadliest conflict in history, with massive casualties on both the military and civilian sides.
Europe lied and signed a peace treaty, and Merkel admitted that they had no intention of honoring that agreement. It was only to buy time for Ukraine to raise an army to start World War III against Russia.
The West wants this War. There is no possible way for Putin to come to any peace terms with the West. They will not honor it, for the Neocons have spent their entire lives dreaming about the conquest of Russia. The West is infected with these warmongers. There is no dealing with them. It is up to us to get off our ass and demand their removal!!!!
Our computer has been correct all along. I stood up at the 2011 WEC in Philadelphia and warned that the war cycle turned up in 2014. That was correct, and it was the Ukrainian Revolution. In 2013, the year before, I warned that the computer had targeted Ukraine as the hot spot. These are NOT my personal forecasts. Nobody can be that correct from a “I think” perspective.
The computer has been forecasting World War III, and 2026 is a Panic Cycle. With Trump’s absurd 50-day ultimatum, we can expect that this will indeed start to heat up from August onward.
Canadians with a mortgage renewal in the near future are facing trouble ahead. The Bank of Canada released a new report detailing that around 60% of outstanding mortgages are set to renew in 2025 or 2026, and those homeowners are highly likely to see a rise in monthly payments.
Most borrowers went into a five-year, fixed-rate mortgage when rates were significantly lower. The average monthly mortgage payment for those renewing in 2025 is expected to rise by 10% compared to December 2024. Those set to renew in 2026 should anticipate a 6% monthly increase in comparison to the same time period. However, this is all dependent upon the type of product purchased. The central bank noted that those who selected a variable rate payment may actually see a decline of between 5% to 7%. Those with a five-year, fixed-rate payment could see an increase of up to 15% to 20%. Of the 60% of mortgage holders facing renewals, around 75% of those facing increases hold a five-year, fixed-rate mortgage.
Five-year, fixed-rate mortgages account for 40% of all outstanding mortgages in the nation. The central bank’s report notes that 20% of these holders with mortgages renewing in 2026 will experience an increase.
The variable rate surpassed its peak years ago, but the renewal rates vary drastically. At the top, 10% of those renewing in 2026 could experience an increase of over 40%, while at the bottom, around 25% may see a decrease of at least 7%. Principal payments made since origination is one of the primary factors. Those who chose or had the ability to increase monthly payments to cover principal and interest are less likely to experience a dramatic price increase at renewal compared to those in negative amortization. These loans face rising interest that is added to the principal when the monthly payment is unable to meet the initial interest.
Around 80% of those with variable loans who renewed prior to March 2022 have repaid beyond their contract, leading to only 5% of that group holding a higher principal balance in February 2025 compared to the previous renewal or origination.
The central bank has deemed that this will not cause severe stress to the Canadian economy. Yet, the central bank is counting on borrowers having a higher income at renewal.
“Overall, we do not expect upcoming mortgage renewals to lead to a severe worsening of financial stress for affected borrowers, holding everything else constant. Indeed, most borrowers will likely have higher income at renewal and should face interest rates below what they were stress-tested for. That said, some borrowers with higher payments at renewal will face challenges. Many of them will need to change their spending to manage higher mortgage payments. And some may struggle to meet their other financial obligations.”
This is an optimistic analysis that relies on the economy strengthening at a time when the indicators are not there. Households cannot necessarily absorb these rate hikes, as we are looking at around 60% of renewals experiencing an uptick in monthly payments. The models show rising tension across Canadian banks and mortgage-backed assets into Q1 2026. This is not about a bubble bursting. It’s about a slow, structural compression.
Italy has finalized a major energy deal with the United States, which will reform energy trade between the two nations. Unlike other European countries that are hesitant to rely on the US under Trump, Italy’s Giorgia Meloni has sought to strengthen ties with the world’s leading economy in mutually beneficial trade agreements. The $15 billion 20-year deal will provide two million metric tons of American natural gas to the European nation.
Venture Global and Italian energy giant Eni solidified the deal. State-controlled energy company Eni has never issued the US a long-term liquefied natural gas (LNG) contract, and stated that the portfolio will expand to 20 million tons of LNG annually by 2030. The United States is essentially replacing Russia as Italy’s energy supplier.
Energy exports to Italy from the US have dramatically increased in the years since the Russian war, followed by Russian sanctions. Over 20% of Italy’s total LNG imports came from the US in 2022, tripling the amount imported from 2021 prior to the Russia-Ukraine war. Two-thirds of Italy’s energy is provided through fossil fuels, with 35.7% coming from natural gas and 37% from oil. The notable distinguishing feature of this plan is the duration, as Italy is counting on the United States to remain a stable ally.
Venture Global announced in June that it would begin supplying additional US gas to a German-based distributor as well. In fact, the United States has essentially replaced Russia as the European Union’s largest energy importer. In 2024 alone, the US provided the EU with 45% of its LNG needs.
There is mixed sentiment over Europe becoming reliant on American energy. European institutions are still attempting to uphold the Green Deal and implement environmental and climate regulations. They expect the US to meet their asinine methane emission rules. Other nations with US-skeptic leaders are wary of trade leverage. Eliminating Russian energy was essentially Europe shooting itself in the foot. While cautious, European leaders know that they need a new source of energy, and the capitalists leading America will happily supply it to them.
Teens in the United Kingdom were recently deemed too irresponsible to use social media and user-generated online content. Yet, the government has deemed it appropriate to now permit teens to begin voting in elections at the age of 16.
The Labour Party has been pushing legislation to permit 16-year-olds to vote. Coupled with digital IDs, teens will be permitted to apply for proper credentials as the UK moves toward an “increasingly automated voter registration system.”
“For too long public trust in our democracy has been damaged and faith in our institutions has been allowed to decline,” Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner said. “We are taking action to break down barriers to participation that will ensure more people have the opportunity to engage in UK democracy, supporting our plan for change, and delivering on our manifesto commitment to give 16-year-olds the right to vote.”
Young voters are the least likely demographic to cast a vote. In the UK’s 2024 general election, voter turnout for the 18-24 year-old demographic was only 47%. Yet, the youth tend to favor the Labour Party, leading many to believe this measure is an attempt to buy votes. As Winston Churchill famously said, “If you’re not a liberal when you’re young, you have no heart; if you’re not a conservative when you’re old, you have no brain.”
The government forces this demographic to pay taxes on earnings over £12,570. They must pay into the National Insurance fund from age 16 if they earn above the limit, with the government currently taking £242 per week. Teens as young as 15 years and 7 months may join the Army, and those 16 years of age of older may begin basic training with parental consent. However, they cannot serve in active armed operations until they turn 18.
Are 16 and 17-year-olds responsible enough to vote? If the government deems they responsible enough to begin training to fight and pay taxes, then perhaps the youth should be permitted to select who will lead them into war and dip into their pockets. Better yet, stop sending kids off to die in foreign wars and dissuading the youth from seeking out entry-level roles with taxation. If they’re responsible enough to select the leader of their nation, they should be able to access the internet freely and be exposed to a wide range of voices and opinions, rather than what the government labels as information or misinformation.
While the world was distracted by the Epstein debacle, legislators introduced the GENUIS Act that would permit the US government to regulate stablecoins. The GENUIS (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act), primarily sponsored by Senator Bill Hagerty (R-Tennessee), permits the government to oversee, regulate, and define the $250 billion stablecoin market.
Now, stablecoins differ from cryptocurrencies as they are pegged to a stable asset such as a fiat currency or commodity. Cryptocurrencies are allegedly allowed to freely operate on the market based on supply and demand. The GENIUS Act will peg stablecoins to the US dollar and require issuers to maintain a 1:1 reserve ratio in short-term treasuries or cash.
Issuers holding over $10 billion in outstanding stablecoins will be subject to federal regulation under a newly created oversight agency. These issuers will now be deemed financial institutions and required to meet the traditional banking regulations as well. Stablecoins can no longer pay interest or act as an alternative to bonds. Perhaps most notably, issuers must not meet anti-money-laundering (AML) regulations, which are set to provide the government with unlimited access to payments.
So essentially, the government is turning the stablecoin into a digital dollar of sorts. The concern here is that this could delve into digitizing all currency and creating a CBDC. The act specifically provides the government with the authority to “block, freeze, and reject specific or impermissible transactions.”
“A permitted payment stablecoin issuer shall be treated as a financial institution [and]…shall be subject to all Federal laws applicable to a financial institution located in the United States including…policies and procedures to block, freeze, and reject specific or impermissible transactions that violate Federal or State
laws, rules, or regulations…”
This provision is not intended to protect the world against drug smugglers and thieves. This provision is intended to grant government unlimited control over how people spend stablecoins. The government could have easily frozen the accounts of those who refused the COVID-19 vaccination, for example, and the Biden Administration admittedly weaponized existing financial institutions to spy on Conservative Americans through their payment histories.
“Stablecoins are the bait and switch for direct-issued government CBDCs,” Bitcoin Magazine editor Mark Goodwin said, “Stablecoins can be programmed. Exactly like how we fear CBDCs will be programmed. They’re exactly the same tokenized mechanism… They can be taken out of your wallet. Your wallet can be blacklisted. A lot of the things that we fear about CBDCs are totally available within the tool set of Stablecoins.”
The GENIUS Act has received bipartisan support. Although Republican Hagerty championed the bill, he had bipartisan co-sponsors, including Senators Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD), Tim Scott (R-SC), and Cynthia Lummis (R-WY).
I warned that governments would NEVER allow any cryptocurrency or stablecoin to compete with their own currency. I long warned that government was merely tolerating these alternative currencies in the past as they posed no real threat. But now the government needs the ability to tax everything to support its perpetual spending. Every digital transaction is traceable. Every digital currency is controllable—the ultimate power grab.
One of Donald Trump’s main campaign promises was the prevention of CBDC. The headlines are enraged over his failure to release the Epstein files, but the GENUIS Act is a far deeper betrayal of the American people that has the ability to usher in a new monetary system.
The European Union has just proposed a staggering €2 trillion budget over seven years, with a major focus on military defense spending. Once again, Brussels is proving that when governments face internal collapse, they do not turn toward reform. Rather, they turn toward militarism.
The war cycle is intensifying. The proposal would allocate 2 trillion euros ($2.31 trillion USD) over the next seven years into 2028—a pivotal year on the war cycle. Of that figure, 131 billion euros will go toward militarization. This budget is five times the current amount the EU is spending on defense.
“This is a budget for the realities of today, as well as the challenges of tomorrow,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said during a press conference. Around 35% of the budget will go toward climate and biodiversity projects, she said.
The “challenges” von der Leyen is referencing are the looming sovereign debt crisis. They are not actually concerned about Russia invading Europe. Militarization is a political too,l and climate initiatives are the most lucrative tax grab. Brussels sees that it is failing amid a rising wave of nationalism. The net-zero climate change agenda has failed, along with the attempted globalization from the World Economic Forum. The people have lost confidence in their government, and as history goes, leaders will arm up before they step aside.
Socrates has been forecasting this exact shift. The war cycle is peaking into 2027–2028, with the effects being truly felt in 2028. Europe should be more concerned about internal conflict among EU member states than foreign enemies. Brussels forced members to abandon domestic objectives. They’re feeling it now with the energy crisis, migrant crisis, and looming military conscription. Taxes must rise to pay for these failing policies, and member nations must continually contribute more to both the EU and NATO. Confident leaders are beginning to realize that they’ve lost control of the reins on this runaway horse, but those are the leaders who are being silenced and demonized. Civil unrest, separatist movements, and loss of confidence in government will erupt across the continent.
March 2028 marks the beginning of a major shift in the Economic Confidence Model that may signal the start of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe. From 2028 to 2032, confidence in Western governments will completely collapse. The European Union will fragment once the debt crisis hits and it becomes clear that the unity was an illusion.
One company has been looking to one of the world’s oldest professions to gauge the state of the economy—sex work. “The ‘stripper index’ is an unconventional economic indicator that correlates changes in sex work revenue, such as escort pricing, strip club tips, and related search interest, with broader economic cycles,” Erobella states on its website. “It operates on the premise that sex work, being a discretionary luxury, is among the first sectors to feel the pinch during economic downturns.”
Now this is a bit tongue-in-cheek, but everything does, in fact, operate on a cyclical basis. We have those who look at the pizza index for signs of geopolitical turmoil in Washington, and lo and behold, there is some form of a correlation.
Oddly, the creators believe that “economic confidence” is directly tied to the price men are willing to pay for these services. They claim that there was a downturn in searches for sex work ahead of the 2022 downturn, and yet another downturn in searches for “escort” around New York City ahead of the 2008 crash. “Sex work is the ultimate discretionary spend,” it notes. They also stated that cash payments are the primary driver of this industry, causing the industry to be particularly sensitive to downturns ahead of the headlines.
The creators of this unconventional gauge believe that June’s data indicates signs of trouble ahead, with all sex worker-related metrics declining. They found that escort pricing across the UK has declined, and Google searches for “escort” are notably down. Sadly, there is an increase in new hires in the industry as well.
The New York Post also noted that websites such as OnlyFans experienced a decline in revenue during 2022 at the height of inflation.
I would not use this index as a gauge for the economy; it’s more of an interesting concept. Indeed, discretionary spending is the first item to decline ahead of economic downturns. This is one of countless signs that confidence is declining, and consumers are not willing to spend frivolously on extracurricular items to say the least.
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