“I named my computer model after Socrates because the oracle of Delphi had said that he was the smartest man in Greece. He tried to prove the oracle wrong and the process proved it to be correct. He was put on trial and sentenced to death because he knew too much. My computer has taught me a lot in geopolitics, we had a major bank in Lebanon in the 1980’s and they asked if I could create a model on the Lebanese pound. I put the data in the computer and it came out and said their country would fall apart in 8 days. I thought something was wrong with the data. When I told the client, they asked me what currency would be best, and I said the Swiss Franc. Eight days later the civil war begn. Obviously they saw the movement of money themselves and came to me for the timing. The same thing happened with a client in Saudi Arabia who was a big shipper. He called me asking me what gold would do tomorrow because Iran was going to begin attacking shipping in the gulf. So once again, there was advanced information about war. By 1998, I understood how the computer was forcasting such events. I warned in June at our London conference that Russia was about to collapse. The London financial Times had snuck into the back of the room and reported that forecast on the front of their newspaper on June 27th 1998. Russia collapsed about 6 weeks later.”
Posted originally on Apr 16, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
The year 2015 was not long ago, and yet the entire world economy has changed. Central banks mismanaged monetary policy through arbitrarily low interest rates and continuous printing to appease the bigger issue—fiscal policy. Fiscal policies are all but nonexistent in most of the modern world, and government spending has become one of the largest threats to the global economy. The COVID lockdown pushed these issues into overdrive, and world leaders usurped power that they have refused to relinquish.
This is a global issue. Canada’s opposition leader Pierre Poilievre has highlighted how much has changed within one ECM cycle, as the last major turning point hit in 2015, and asked Parliament to imagine they had awoken from an 8-year coma.
Eight short years ago, Canada boasted one of the strongest middle classes in the modern world, surpassing that of America. Taxes were actually declining in Canada, falling faster than at any other time in the nation’s history. Crime had decreased by -25%, and people felt safe in their hometowns. The immigration system was efficient, the borders were closed, and there was no migrant crisis. Housing was affordable, costing less than half of what it does today. The nation had a balanced budget.
Poilievre mentioned that there were global conflicts at the time in Syria, Afghanistan, and even Ukraine but none of them were causing inflation at home. Prime Minister Harper had much different policies in place.
Inflationis now rampant, and even after hitting a 40-year high in 2023, it remains 50% above the 2% central bank target. Canada’s economy is shrinking per capita and is expected to have the worst OECD growth of all 40 member countries for the next five years. There is a massive housing crisis in Canada, surpassing that of America, and homelessness is on the rise. The Canadian borders are open, migrants are encouraged to come to the nation despite the lack of housing, and millions of unvetted migrants are now within Canadian boundaries. Taxes are rapidly rising as Trudeau supports World Economic Forum initiatives like carbon taxes and reducing fossil fuels at the expense of the people. Canada has sent a fortune to Ukraineand continues recklessly spending on initiatives that in no way benefit Canadians.
Poilievre is on Trudeau’s tail. It is no wonder that nearly half of Canadians wish to elect a new leader in 2024 instead of 2025. Trudeau is losing his grip over the Canadian people who have become disgruntled with the unsustainable cost of living, rising crime, and increasingly tyrannical government.
It is incredible how much can change within one wave of the ECM. I can assure you that the world will be a very different place by the next one.
Posted originally on Mar 11, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
My January 2020 interview with Andrew McCreath from BNN Bloomberg came up in recent conversation, and I was asked how I knew then that we’d be where we were at now. My answer is the same — I just follow the models. Some unfamiliar with my work merely looked at the headline “DOW 40,000” and dismissed my forecast as if it were my personal opinion. The Dow was 29240 on the day of the interview and while many feared a correction was coming I explained any dip was likely short-term in nature that that it would need to drop below 19000 to be truly considered a bear market and – BUT that fell on deaf ears. Even with the notable COVID dip that soon followed this interview, the market bounced right back to new highs thereafter and the models stayed on track over the long term. We experienced one of the most HATED bull markets in history. Despite all of the turmoil over the years, The Dow consistently went up for over a decade but all the talking heads insisted it would go down.
Now, those same analysts are mad that they missed the entire bull market. The short-term forecast called for a dip in 2020 and a chance to get in on the action (and COVID provided that dip in spades), but I explained that there would not be a change in the long-term trend as my computer indicated we would enter a private wave that would peak in 2024 and go off into a half-8.6-year cycle into 2028. This was all indicated by the computer system as no individual could have foreseen the events that have unfolded over the past four years.
All of the models were heating up for 2024. This is why we focus primarily on the long-term, and closely monitor capital concentration – follow the money. There was trouble in Europe and Asia, so the capital needed to flee, and that safe haven happened to be the US. It is America’s final years as the leading financial capital of the world as historically it always changes. America dethroned Britain after World War II and China is on it’s way to dethrone America after 2032.
I also pointed out that inflation would be the focal point for 2024, leading to interest rates changing and becoming a key factor for central banks globally. Volatility paired with the private wave, where capital must escape the public sector, would also lead to an uptick in the commodity cycle.
The business cycle cannot be manipulated, but it can be analyzed. However, that’s not how most market analysts work. Long-term, macro requires looking at every market throughout the globe, studying past behavior through historical patterns in price and time. The models do a tremendous job doing this.
Now, everyone is praising the rising Dow that will touch the 40,000 level. Of course, it is easier to say that now that we are almost there. Again, few believed me back in 2020, but here we are. Governments throughout the world are still in trouble and the money remaining on the grid is fleeing into the US. This is another reason why I watch the Dow a bit more closely than the S&P 500, as it provides a more accurate indicator of the big foreign money piling in from throughout the world.
For those who wrote in asking if I still stand by my claims – yes, the computer is still indicating that we are looking at a Dow that could rise to 65,000 by 2032, when we are likely to see a change in not just the markets but governments worldwide. I wish I could tell you something different.
Posted originally on Mar 7, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I know you knew my father. He had always been a big supporter of your work. He would do his part in homeschooling me part-time and show me your work on how the world functions. He passed, and I greatly appreciate your kindness in paying your respects. I’m sure he smiled from above, knowing you took the time to remember him.
I scanned this report of yours from June 1990, just a few months after you forecast the fall of Communism at the end of 1989. You have been teaching the world for a long time. I think it is time the world recognized you.
Thank you
HL
REPLY: Thank you so much. I have tried to collect all the reports issued over the last 45 years. I will always remember your father and hope he can see I am smiling back at him. Good people are hard to find these days.
Posted originally on Feb 29, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: You have been the only analyst who has been correct that there would be no recession that just about everyone had forecast for the last two years. A friend turned me on to you and said mainstream media will never quote you because you do not play by their rules.
I had to present to our board and explain why we needed to switch to your services. They were impressed with your track record. The number one question that arose was that you said there is no recession until after May 7th. The latest statistics from the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s real-time GDP tracker have climbed back up to 3.1% for February, confirming your model has been correct all along. There has been no retreat in consumer confidence in February.
Will consumer confidence contract because of war, which appears to be inevitable? I assume this will be the topic at your London conference in May.
Thank you for your objective model. The world needs your analysis.
FNK
ANSWER: The elite are on a fast train to create war. They think this will not be nuclear, but I fear the darker forces are looking at war as the means to reduce the population by 50% to save their precious planet and reduce CO2. They are honestly sick individuals. They never tell the truth. ALWAYS – more civilians die in war than soldiers,
With the prospect of war, UNCERTAINTY enters the equation. That results in consumer spending being reduced and savings increasing. I have warned that these people are desperate to create war to influence the 2024 election. The media is all on board, cheering war just as they did with COVID-19. You have Victoria Nuland calling anyone who is against war is now a Putin supporter. She has labeled the Republicans who are against war a “Putin’s wing of the Republican Party.” She is on a mission to create World War III before Trump might become president, who is anti-war and will fire her ASAP.
The mainstream media is all pushing for war. Just look at the stats. World War I saw 9 to 11 million military personnel dead, with civilian deaths of about 6 to 13 million. World War II was by far the deadliest military conflict in human history, with a total estimated death total of 70–85 million people. The civilian deaths totaled 50–55 million. Because you cannot grow food during such events, there were an additional estimated 19–28 million deaths from famine. That was 3% of the 2.3 billion at the time. Today, the world population is 8.1 billion. They used the COVID-19 vaccines to alter the herd. But war is always the best means to reduce the population. If they eliminate just 3%, that would be nearly 250 million. They want to reduce a lot more than that.
Posted originally on Feb 26, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
COMMENT #1: I was there at your 2011 WEC. I was dragged along by a friend. I remember well your forecast for war starting in 2014 and your forecast that the Dow would go to 40,000. I thought you were crazy. I bet my friend $100 you would be wrong. I had to pay up. Here we are at 40,000 and the Ukraine war started in 2014. I have to admit, I now see why institutions line up at your door and the government wanted your model.
You are a gift to mankind when we need clarity more than ever.
Thank you. It was the best bet I ever lost.
EP
COMMENT #2: everyone thought you were crazy years ago when you said dow 40000–here we are. it all came true.
ok see you soon
Brent
COMMENT #3: You are the only analyst who is consistent. I appreciate it is not your personal opinion like everyone else. That forecast the Dow would reach 40,000 is here and so is the war.
Stay safe. My whole family now listens to you.
HW
REPLY: Because my father was a lawyer who always hoped he would put “and son” on the door, I disappointed him in that regard. For whatever reason, I was always fascinated by what made the rise and fall of markets as well as empires, nations, and city-states. He did teach me about law from probably 7 years old. He handed me Aristotle to read for one summer. I handed that to my son in the family tradition when he became a teenager. Yet he also instilled an interest in history. I bought my first Roman coin for $10, probably when I was 10 to 12 years old. I could hold history in the palm of my hand. I saw the US take silver out of the coins in 1965, and I saw the parallel to Rome and how the same pattern emerged.
I also have to thank him for seeing the future of computers and pushing me into computer engineering, where in the ’60s, we had to study hardware design as well as software. I learned to code in machine language and connected the dots between programming and trading in the ’70s. Taking the family to Europe for the summer of 1964 opened my eyes to the world of currencies since we traveled all over from Sweden to Italy and everything in between.
That all set the stage for this journey I have been on, which I never set out to accomplish. Nevertheless, because of that worldview instilled in me by my father, I saw the world of finance, and that 1964 trip taught me, moving from one current to the next, that my home currency was really a mental language of value. I would have to listen to the price in whatever currency and then convert that in my head back to dollars. Only then could I rationalize if it was a fair price or not.
Visiting jail cell of Athens
Thus, I designed Socrates to look at the world and determine who will do what, for everyone will make a judgment call based upon their home currency, which is a language of value in their head. Here, you can see how the same market appears differently depending on your currency. I chose the name Socrates because he was really accused of knowing too much. They put him on trial for influencing the youth and executed him for sharing that knowledge.
All of that set me on the path to where I am today, but it also taught me a lesson that opinions are not the way to forecast. I probably have more experience than most. I have been to White House dinners, been on a board of a bank, met with board members of IMF and heads of state, addressed boards of the largest banks internationally, been an international hedge fund manager, and been called in by so many central banks as well as testified before Congress and been called in for just about every financial crisis around the world. That’s just the shortlist.
Because I specialized in currency, that has put me in the middle of almost everything since the 1970s. Currency was the mover and shakers behind the politics of the world. It was far more than simply trading buy here and sell there. It is why the CFTC had even subpoenaed me, demanding a list of all my clients worldwide so they could prove I manipulated the world because I was too influential in their view. I defended in court and won. They were always seeking to shut down the forecasting.
History repeats because humanity never learns. These people who push for war have no end game. Nobody ever seems to ask – what comes next. They took down Saddam Hussein and never once asked: What would happen if you overthrew a government?
They are doing that again with Russia. Victoria Nuland is highly dangerous. She personally hates Russians, and nobody has a view of what would happen if you overthrew the Russian government. Would you then have nukes for sale on the black market?
I have been behind the curtain. I have never witnessed such evil and incompetent people in charge. I suppose this is necessary as we head into 2032. I want to stress that these forecasts are NOT my opinion. They are not based on anything other than the raw economics and capital flows. They are not based on religious philosophy, nor did I introduce astrology. They are the objective view of the computer, the ONLY fully functioning AI system in the world monitoring the global economy with a track record of nearly 50 years.
Yes, people are saying I should float it now. It would be worth hundreds of billions. I don’t have the time or the energy to take that on now, and I have more than enough to support me until Scotty beams me up. Nobody respectful has been beating down my door who would maintain my dream to ensure it helps the world – not a small WEF billionaire click.
Posted originally on Feb 13, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
I do not advise governments to use sanctions for leverage due to the economic implications that may take time to materialize. In April 2020, I wrote, “Once you impose sanctions, you create a cold war. Look at Russia. Nixon opened China to divide and conquer. Are we really that stupid to close China and encourage them to join Russia in a cold war that will further destroy the world economy and most likely lead to real war?” The US and EU attempted to remove Russia from the global economy through sanctions and prohibiting them from the SWIFT network. Putin further explained in his interview with Tucker Carlson why this was a “grave mistake” for the future of the USD.
Using the dollar for political struggles dealt a blow to the USD that has not yet been felt. First, freezing the assets of Russians sent a signal to the whole world that the USD may not be the safest place to park your money if you happen to be in an “unfriendly” nation. Even our own allies have begun downsizing their dollar reserves.
The SWIFT system was never meant to be used as a political instrument. The West began looking into ways to remove Russia from this payment system back in 2014, and when they finally did, Russia began processing its payments elsewhere. Putin also correctly stated in the interview that China, not Russia, is the larger threat to the West in terms of size, population, manufacturing, and, most importantly, the growing power of the yuan.
The BRICS alliance is stronger than ever before as nations are collaborating without the need for the dollar. This does NOT mean that they are planning to replace the dollar, a myth that Putin termed the “BRICS boogeyman” as the Western media portrays the organization as a major threat to global security. However, this does mean that the yuan will grow in strength, as we have seen with the slow death of the petrodollar. The BRICS partnership means that members are no longer dependent on Western energy, and eventually, no one will be dependent on Western trade or debt. Only a fool would buy their enemy’s debt and expect to receive anything in return. Again, this will happen on target cyclically as nothing remains forever. The dollar overpowered sterling, and the yuan is next in line.
There are boogeyman fables that cooperation with China will lead to the destruction of the West, yet that is happening as a result of our leaders abandoning all domestic policies for globalization. Every nation in the EU and North America has made decisions that directly hurt its own economy but are beneficial to the coming globalization that they wish to bring forth, as stated every year at Davos.
“You can’t choose your neighbors like you can’t choose relatives,” Putin stated in regards to China, “We have a centuries-long history of coexistence.” He correctly stated that China always looks for compromise. They are an independent nation that has not fallen to the globalist agenda and there are not neocons within the ranks looking to bring China into perpetual warfare. The media is afraid of the “no limits” alliance between Russia and China, but look at how China has remained relatively neutral since the war in Ukraine began when they could have easily aided their neighbor. Furthermore, Europe is now closer economically to China than Russia is, as Europe is desperate for solutions to its economic issues and sees China as an opportunity.
Putin stated numerous times that US analysts are the ones discussing these problems, and he is simply repeating what he has read. I have not personally advised Putin, but I do believe his people read our work as he was attempting to explain cycles. “It is like the rise of the sun. You cannot prevent the sun from rising. You must adapt to it,” he said as one analogy. Cycles, indeed, are the operating system behind absolutely everything. Civilization does not change; war and periods of economic decline are inevitable. We can merely observe and learn from the trends to adapt accordingly.
Join Kerry Lutz and renowned economist Martin Armstrong for a captivating discussion centered around the Socrates computer model’s uncanny accuracy in predicting political and market trends since 1985. Discover the model’s compelling projection of a 61% chance for a Republican victory in the upcoming 2024 election and its implications for the political landscape.
Delve into the erosion of confidence in government, potential election irregularities, and the profound impact of deviations from historical election norms. Gain insights into the influence of various political agendas, including discussions about veiled threats and the involvement of influential figures like Klaus Schwab and George Soros in funding Democratic elections.
Transitioning to market forecasts, Martin Armstrong reaffirms his earlier prediction regarding the crucial turning point in January. Explore the far-reaching effects of global capital trends on stock markets, with a focus on how geopolitical events shape investment decisions and influence various stock market indexes.
The conversation also tackles pressing economic issues, such as the potential consequences of increased taxes and selective debt default, the dollar’s reserve currency status, and the challenges faced by farmers and migration trends within the United States. Despite technical challenges, Kerry Lutz and Martin Armstrong exhibit adaptability and resilience, making this discussion a must-watch for those seeking insights into the ever-evolving world of politics and finance.
Posted originally on Jan 23, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Dear Martin – you often speak of CONFIDENCE in the government and there are many arrays you share that indicate confidence or lack thereof (Interest rates, Gold, Bonds, Indexes, Forex and others). All of these are open to interpretation by Socrates subscribers, and of course your respective, priceless commentary you share with us. What I’ve always wondered is if there is a Socrates array specifically called ‘Confidence in the Government’? That would indeed be the array of arrays! Kind regards. GS
REPLY: That is an idea. I warned that the peak 2015.75 of the previous wave was the PEAK IN GOVERNMENT. Ever since then, the confidence in government has been declining. We had Hillary calling everyone who voted for Trump a deplorable. Merkel opened the gates to allow the “refugees” from Syria to flood in, and they came from everywhere, which undermined the stability of the governments in Europe and prompted the vote on BREXIT. BY 2016, we learned about Hillary’s emails and the private server she set up to sell influence so that it would not be subject to the Freedom of Information Act discovery. Then she launched the fake dossier claiming Trump was a puppet of Putin, beginning the whole Russian Conspiracy scandal. Within a year, the US banned Russia Today (RT), claiming it was a foreign agent thanks to Hillary.
We monitor sentiment, and there is no question about it. Ever since COVID-19, trust in the institutions of Democracy has been visibly declining. In the past five years, the European Union’s official research bureau found that less than 30% of Europeans had faith in their national parliaments and governments. This has produced the lowest figures in years and indicates what we face heading into 2032. This means that 70% of the people distrust Brussels and their own governments. Typically, the danger of civil unrest and even revolution emerges when this falls below 30%.
When we look objectively around the world, in the West, political parties are the least trusted compared to Russia or China. Traditionally, the cornerstone of a free society is the fundamental right to remain a skeptic of government and those in power. When that is stifled, society is no longer considered to be a free society.
Revolution unfolds as people’s interest in politics grows because of events while trust in politics continues to decline. This is reflecting the very stability of a nation is being undermined by the sheer attempt to manipulate society and impose dictates from a central authority, which is precisely the same tactic under Communism that caused its collapse.
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This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
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