Public confidence has plummeted. People across the world have lost faith in their governments, economy, and overall futures. The 2022 Edelman Trust Barometer surveyed 36,000 respondents from 28 countries in November 2021. Similar sentiments are being felt across the world as inflation, civil unrest, and war continues to wreak havoc on our lives with no signs of slowing.
Nearly half of all respondents stated that they viewed the government (48%) and media (46%) as divisive forces in society. “We find a world ensnared in a vicious cycle of distrust, fueled by a growing lack of faith in media and government. Through disinformation and division, these two institutions are feeding the cycle and exploiting it for commercial and political gain,” the poll found. The propaganda propelled by the media is so blatant that it cannot be ignored by anyone regardless of their political standing. Honest journalists are jailed while the others promote an agenda. The media quickly adverted our attention to the war in Ukraine and rapidly downplayed their coverage on COVID. Fauci’s face was an unavoidable daily presence in the press for years until the war began. Where is he now? The same thing happened when the Black Lives Matter riots dominated the news until Joe Biden was elected president as their mission was accomplished. The governments are responsible for changing the narrative provided to the public by the media who have become misinformation peddlers.
However, people are now looking at the private sector to solve societal problems. The private sector is not capable or responsible for doing the government’s job, but people worldwide would prefer it if it were. “We see an even greater expectation of business to lead as trust in government continues to spiral,” the survey noted. Around 49% of respondents want businesses to fix economic inequality, while 46% believe they are responsible for reskilling the workforce. A surprising 52% of respondents believe the private sector is responsible for cyclical climate change.
Conclusion: “Failure of leadership makes distrust the default.” Our model indicates that people will continue to seek refuge from the private sector, with the intensity increasing to a level not seen in our lifetimes.
QUESTION #1: Marty; Long-time reader, pro member. First of all, thank you for confirming suspicions from my youth that there are cycles everywhere and for expanding the ideas enabling me to see that everything is connected. I agree w/ you that the financial center of the world is headed back to China. My question, however, is this. China is currently undergoing its own economic problems in banking and real estate putting pressure on the populace and hence, upon the CCP. What does Socrates say China will look like come 2032+? How will the Chinese society change and how will this change influence the world at large post-2032?
VT
QUESTION #2: Marty, I am flabbergasted that you said in 2013 that Ukraine was the place this all begins. Your long-range forecasts are beyond what anyone has ever done. I find it appalling that these sites like ______ post everyone but you because they are closet gold bugs. This is about helping society understand how the world works for which you should get the Noble Prize. These sites ignore you because they too are no different than the people they claim to oppose. They only preach their own theories.
My question is, have you made any progress in understanding how your model makes these forecasts nobody else can do?
HF
ANSWER: I believe the world is so COMPLEX that there is no possibility of humans analyzing and forecasting the future from a personal gut feeling on a consistent basis. Yes, there are people who hate me because they do not like a forecast. They are just fools and you cannot ever win an argument with a fool. Life is all about keeping an open mind and learning everything we can. Perhaps that is what people call an old soul.
It is true that you see advertisements of some guy who claims he called some crash. One forecast can be nothing but dumb luck the same as a broken clock is still correct twice each day. I have been pursuing this phenomenon of trying to understand how the world REALLY works for decades. I too have found it fascinating how the model can make so many forecasts to the very day – not just one and it is all mathematical which cannot be fudged. I believe this simply reveals that there is a hidden order to everything. It reminds me of the conflict I saw in school between Physics class and Economics. The first said there is nothing random and the latter said everything was random so we can eliminate the business cycle and prevent depressions and recession. Physics was correct – economics was wrong.
“The War Cycle turns up next year. Because Kiev was the first capital of Russia, this is really important. Ukraine is between Russia and Europe and is being torn apart. Russia’s pride is on the chopping block and this is the real center of the struggle for Russia.”
If you watch Ukraine of Fire, it will help you better understand this critical crossroads that will bring the world to WWIII. Perhaps you will understand that there is a lot more to Ukraine than the fake news presents. We face a crisis where there are people who once again think they know better than everyone else and that they alone have the answer as to how the world should work. They are the typical academic economists who think that the business cycle is nonsense and that they can temper, control, and manipulate society into a perfect state of harmony.
What 2032 represents is the complete collapse in government precisely as we saw with the American Revolution which brought the downfall of the monarchy. This was the birth of republics once again and we will move back to a new form of government that may be hard to visualize. The current system of socialism is collapsing. Politicians only know how to bribe people for votes rather than present themselves as efficient managers of the state. Socialism has allowed the invasion of all of our rights. They can put in a billionaire’s tax and everyone will cheer. You then must file revealing your wealth to prove you are not a billionaire. Every regulative imposition on one group necessitates the same control on everyone else.
I hope that when the system falls like a tree being sawed off at its base, it will fall in the direction of democracy rather than a republic. But all forms of government will be confronted with a new wave of change.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on March 13, 2022
Mohamed El-Erian, the chief economic adviser for Allianz, got the inflation problem correct; states a forecast in line with CTH Main Street review, but then falls short on his political outlook for the solution.
Within the interview, El-Erian predicts inflation at the current CPI measure will increase from current 7.9% to over 10% this year. That aspect is in alignment with CTH review at ground level.
Current real inflation is more than 15% across the board, if you use the CPI methodology we were using in the 70’s and 80’s. Both the scale and the speed of the current price increases are historic. That is why you are seeing prices on retail items jumping so high, so fast. The price increases on highly consumable goods are in the 15 to 20% range. WATCH:
An increase to over 10%, using current CPI measures, equals an increase of 25 to 30% in actual price (using historic measures). Keep in mind, we have already passed through a wave of backward-looking inflation in the 25 to 30% range. El-Erian is predicting a duplication of that scale into the remainder of 2022, I agree. The 2020 $3 item became the 2021 $4 item, which will now become the 2022 $5.50 item. That is our reality. It will not get better.
Where we differ from El-Erian is on the wage side and the political analysis. Any political intervention to create govt subsidy with the goal to generate a higher workforce will backfire – bigly. Recent historic employment statistics have not yet reflected the demand side decline in goods. The employment data is skewed and useless because of the COVID mitigation impact on jobs.
The employment picture is only just now starting to reflect the demand side drop. Wages will not grow and will not provide fuel for inflation. The currently hidden workforce reductions are generating downward pressure on wages naturally. Adding subsidies (childcare etc), to generate a higher workforce into an environment with declining available jobs, will backfire.
Sector specific unions negotiating for higher wage contracts will find themselves trying to get wage increases while the top line of the organization is dropping due to lack of demand. Unfortunately, the AFSCME is generally immune to this problem – government spending can always expand.
This is where El-Erian’s connection to Wall Street is his blind spot. If what he suggests were carried out, govt will print money to cover even more deficit spending (the BBB agenda). That increased money supply will create even more inflation at the same time real life wage pressures are going down because the economy is contracting, and workers are getting laid-off.
The economy, quantified by the goods/services generated (minus imports), has been contracting since mid 2021. The govt COVID subsidies created artificial and unnatural demand for goods. If you take the massive COVID expenditures ($5+ trillion) out of the 2021 economy, the result is a recession that began mid 2021.
That bloated chicken, which carried the inflation created by the printing, is coming home to roost. There ain’t no way in hell to avoid it. The recession exists, regardless of our desire to ignore it or fill the hole with more QE printing.
The inflation problem is now magnified by the need for the Fed to raise interest rates and stop purchasing our own debt. Raising interest rates will lower investment and naturally create fewer jobs. The economy will contract further and faster. El-Erian accurately notes there is no positive way out of this scenario, there are bad options and worse options. The difference between them is how slow or fast we want to take off the bandaid.
$3 – $4 bread in 2020, became $4 – $5 bread in 2021, which will become $5.50 – $6.50 bread mid-summer 2022. Other food store averages will follow a similar rate of price increase. The processed food inflation is settling down, however, fresh foods inflation will now take over and has only just begun. Fresh fruits and vegetables will increase in price at roughly twice the rate of processed goods.
Chemical product price increases should level off mid-summer; however, with unleaded gasoline still on target for $7/gal [diesel $8/$9 (range)] the packaging, transportation and distribution costs will continue putting upward pressure on finished good prices.
All of these things were going to happen this year, regardless of Russia and Ukraine. The European conflict is now just a convenient excuse to avoid blame for outcomes of the underlying policies.
This economic reality is not exclusively a U.S. issue; however, the scale of the economic problem is exclusively a U.S. issue. The globe may drop into a recession, but our hole will be far worse.
In his USAWatchdog.com interview just two weeks ago, legendary financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong said, The New World Order’s so-called ‘Great Reset’ plan for humanity is ‘falling apart,’ and pointed out, “They are basically desperate at this stage. I don’t think they anticipated the amount of resistance they are getting.”
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is enormous resistance to the New World Order plans. Armstrong, who has new data from his Socrates computer analysis, is out with a fresh critical update. Armstrong explains, “It’s just total insanity. They are, really at this stage, completely collapsing the world economy. You have Apple and all these companies; there are over 300 American companies in Russia. Their assets are going to be seized. They are all now in a panic mode to get out, and you are going to see the same situation with China. This is insane. It really is insane, and you just don’t do this. I can’t believe these governments have listened to this sort of advice. It’s really, really disastrous. What creates world peace is not nuclear weapons. It’s economic, basically. As long as everybody benefits, then you are not going to bite the hand that feeds you. When you start cutting off trade on both sides, you are wiping out the global economy. That is what has provided world peace since WWII. . . . By 2023, I don’t see this backing off. Once you have undermined the global financial economy, you have removed the benefits and then it does turn to war.”
Armstrong sees a “serious problem with a war cycle in early 2023” but hopes it does not go full nuclear. The financial war has already gone nuclear.
Before the end of this year, Armstrong’s “Socrates” computer program sees a “panic cycle” for the 2022 mid-term elections, mainly for the Democrats. Armstrong explains more about this in the interview.
Armstrong says inflation is here to stay, and it’s going to be huge in some areas. Armstrong sees gasoline rising to $8 to $10 per gallon sometime in 2023. Armstrong says buy everything you think you will need because it will never be cheaper, and it may not even be there in the future at any price. Food is high on Armstrong’s list, and he says have good old fashion cash on hand because of cyber-attacks and power outages that he sees coming in some areas. Armstrong also sees an average of 25% inflation by 2024. This, again, is according to his “Socrates” computer program. Armstrong says “the commodity cycle will take off in 2024.” Armstrong sees everything going up in price, and that includes gold and silver. Interest rates will also be headed up, and the stock market is not going to do well in a trend that sees interest rates rising.
Armstrong says communism is what the New World Order really wants. Armstrong says, “The globalists want communism, but the problem with communism is it does not work—period.”
Armstrong blames the western world leaders for the mess the world is in today. Armstrong says, “It’s their fault. . . .This is the worst crop of world leaders I have ever seen, and I have been consulting governments for 40 years. . . . The level of stupidity on the world stage is stunning.”
Armstrong is also predicting the“civil unrest will not only continue, but “it will get much worse.”
“We are now in very active discussions with our European partners about banning the import of Russian oil to our countries while, of course, at the same time maintaining a steady global supply of oil,” Secretary of State Blinken said on “Meet the Press” on NBC last Sunday. Then we have Biden blaming the price rise of gasoline on Putin ignoring the fact that prices have been soaring before the Ukrainian crisis. This photo is from California months BEFORE the Ukraine manufactured crisis.
Now we have Congressional Democrats who are about to create an even worse shortage by proposing a new tax on large oil companies designed to “curb profiteering” by redirecting profits associated with higher crude oil prices to back drivers. The Big Oil Windfall Profits Tax Act, introduced by Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island and co-sponsored by 11 other Democratic senators on Thursday, would collect a portion of the profits companies are currently yielding with oil at its highest premium in more than a decade and return it to consumers as quarterly rebates. This is our problem. We have people in government with ZERO understanding of even how the economy works. Imposing such a tax of this nature will create shortages for it will act as price control.
I bought this ancient gold Double Aureus of Emperor Gallienus (253-268AD) for 3,000 euros at an auction in Germany which weighs 5.38 grams and there are 31.1 grams per troy ounce. Even at $2,000, the gold content is $345.98. I had to give the purity to customs in order to clear it. The silver and bronze they did not care about.
Then from another auction, I purchased a rare coin of Nero from his invasion of Bosporus in the Black Sea. Because the “origin” of ancient Bosporus is Ukraine, FedEx has refused to ship it to me.
Welcome to the New World Order where anything of gold is to be tracked and even an ancient coin that was struck in the Ukraine region in 62-68AD is banned from shipping all thanks to Biden’s war against Putin.
You really cannot make up this level of stupidity.
Armstrong Economics Blog/Socrates Re-Posted Mar 11, 2022 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT #1: OK Marty, it is now becoming obvious that not only Trump reads your stuff but so does Obama. Trump bought a $19 million remote island and Obama bought one for $15 million. This is not a coincidence. Your war cycle goes nuts next year and we have the worst crop of world leaders pushing us into oblivion. I think it’s to fess up to all the elites who are your clients.
UT
COMMENT #2: I remember you said you don’t know how Socrates does it. Are you any closer to finding out how it is actually predicting events? Do you think it is connecting to a different dimension/realm? everything is possible! All the best M
ANSWER: Neither Trump nor Obama subscribe to our services, at least under their own name. Just about every government is tapping into our forecasts because the computer has called just about everything in my life to my own amazement. They held me in contempt and desperately tried to have me build it for them. I said we would run whatever study they wanted, but the CIA simply replied that they had to own it. It took many years for me to stand up against that, for it would have deprived my main objective to show that there may be a better way to manage society — living with the cycle instead of trying to suppress it. Fed Chairman Arthur Burns concluded that all the battles trying to defeat the business cycle always failed because of COMPLEXITY.
I believe that the success of Socrates is based upon COMPLEXITY that we as humans cannot fully comprehend, no less see. I believe the world economy is much like a rainforest where there are countless species of insects, animals, plant life, and different components of soil. Perhaps as Darwin theorized, it was survival of the fittest, and that same concept emerges within the global economy.
Like the rain forest, kill one species, and that may have been the food source for another which then dies off. The ripple effect is so complex that we have no idea what the true implications will be. But our arrogance is always reducing everything to a single cause and effect because we are incapable of understanding COMPLEXITY. We harm everything we touch with this primitive form of analysis just like these climate change zealots that hang everything on CO2 when CO2 is the life element behind all plant life. Reduce CO2 to zero, and they have no idea what will happen to the planet all because they think CO2 increases the temperature looking at data only back to 1850.
You cannot win an argument against a fool. Thus, it is impossible to convince these climate change zealots that they are wrong and the world is far more COMPLEX. As Julius Caesar once said: “In most cases, men willingly believe what they wish.”
I believe the success of Socrates is that it sorts out the COMPLEXITY that we as humans cannot see. It is monitoring everything and in the process, what emerges is the cycle of time itself. Indeed, every action causes an equal and opposite reaction. The sanctions imposed upon Russia and arbitrarily the Russian people for a corrupt regime in Ukraine set the stage for the inevitable what I call The Great Economic Destruction.
When Russia turned Communist, that ended world trade. The dissolution of the old Central European empires created twelve new states, and each put up trade barriers to protect their economies. That combined with Russia being isolated economically by the Communist Revolution was no longer connected to the world. It had been the main exporter of a large volume of raw materials and food in exchange for Eastern European manufactured goods. This contributed to the Great Depression as well as the food shortages.
Today, the sanctions against Russia will be permanent, for this will only harden Russia’s resolve and bind Russia and China together. Biden has singlehanded destroyed the world economy in just a few weeks. Economically, this will seriously unhinge the European economy in particular. After the stupidity of COVID restrictions that disrupted the world’s supply chain, sending inflation already to test the 8% level without Russian sanctions, we will see nothing but higher prices and economic decline all because our world leaders act out of hatred are ignorant of COMPLEXITY. The sanctions against Russia are much more devious than most suspect. They have the same fingerprints as the COVID Scam and that is to end the use of fossil fuels. The problem, is Germany has no alternative – but they cannot think or see beyond the end of their nose.
Putin has announced that he endorses a plan to nationalize foreign-owned businesses that flee the country over its invasion of Ukraine. This is signaling to the West that he can also play the same game. Putin’s approval of the plan is scheduled to be discussed in Russia’s parliament Friday. Now even Goldman Sachs said it was “winding down” its business in Russia, following hundreds of other Western firms that have closed or suspended operations. Since the West is confiscating private assets, all is fair in love and war as they say.
I have been in serious discussions with key people around the world. Many people are deeply concerned that this is all a political game – not military. This has the same fingerprints all over it as the COVID scam and the end objectives are the same. These sanctions are really intended to shut down fossil fuels and by driving the price higher, it is believed that the people will consume less and work virtually. There are money trails that are revealed in such documents as the Panama Papers.
The World Economic Forum Young Global Leaders program included Zelensky who graduated in 2000, as did Trudeau. In July 2019, Zelensky credited the Canadian Prime Minister with “inspiring him to get into politics.” The funding for Zelensky’s TV series was put up by an oligarch friend linked to George Soros. Zelensky will not compromise as Trudeau acted against the tuckers. Meanwhile, Zelensky keeps trying to drag NATO and the US which he knows fully well will unleash World War III. There is another agenda here from the start, something was just not right. I have friends in Kyiv and just as in Canada, NOT all Ukrainians see Zelensky as a hero. Both China and Russia can also follow the money trail and it does not lead to the military.
The West has clearly begun WWIII in the financial markets which will inevitably spill over into outright warfare as was the case the last time governments acted this irrational. The Biden Administration, joined by some lunatic Republicans, is moving to carry out the next step in this Financial War which, like WWII, began in the Financial markets that led to outright war. For those who do not know the real history behind the Great Depression because of the fake news even back then, Germany could not meet the reparation payments that were demanded by France. There was a proposal that Germany and Austria should combine in order to be able to make the reparation payments. Everyone agreed except France. The French’s hatred of the Germans began WWII by shorting the Austrian bonds, then turned on Germany, and when Britain tried to defend Germany, the French turned on the Brits. In 1931, everyone defaulted because of the financial war, and that drove the dollar to record highs. President Hoover remarked how crazy the financial markets became in 1931.
Because these financial sanctions being imposed on Russia are dangerously similar and now have torn the world economy apart, once imposed they will never be lifted. Putin knows that the companies that have left will NEVER return and confiscating all their assets is now fair game since the West is confiscating private citizens’ assets. The financial crisis that erupted in 1931, was followed by 1933 which was a political Panic Cycle Year on our model. That is the year when FDR came to power in the USA, Hiter in Germany, and Mao Zedong in China. The elections were in general from Novemb er 1932 into 1933. From this year on our model has been a Political Panic Cycle and 2023 is a War Cycle target, this is NOT going to end nicely. It certainly looks that we will have at best one year before a similar crisis in 2023.
There is no backing out of this mess now. The objective is to create World War III and then expect to be able to stop short of nuclear, but weaken all the governments so that the United Nations will emerge as the great peacemaker and one-world government. I personally think their objectives are totally insane. The computer does not show that it will be successful. But they are ending the dominance of Western culture. The financial capital of the world has ALWAYS migrated. It is just going to be China’s time to come up to bat.
I have created this site to help people have fun in the kitchen. I write about enjoying life both in and out of my kitchen. Life is short! Make the most of it and enjoy!
This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
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