Category End of Fossil Fuel

Jun 18 2022

White House Solution to Gas Prices, Send Taxpayer Funded Gas Cards to Taxpayers Who Cannot Afford Gas


Posted originally on the conservative tree house June 17, 2022 | Sundance

Y’all saw this coming months ago.  The Biden administration is now considering sending taxpayer funded “gas cards” to taxpayers who cannot afford the gasoline prices created by the Biden administration energy policy.  Yes, murica’ it’s a circle of stupid.

WASHINGTON – […] Biden officials are taking a second look at whether the federal government could send rebate cards out to millions of American drivers to help them pay at gas stations — an idea they examined months ago before ruling it out. Aides had found that shortages in the U.S. chip industry would make it hard to produce enough rebate cards, two people familiar with the matter said. White House officials also fear there would be no way to prevent consumers from using them for purchases other than gasoline, according to another person familiar with the discussions.

[…] Biden aides have also looked in recent days at invoking the Defense Production Act to move diesel and other refined products should localized shortages materialize, two people familiar with the matter said.

[…] The revived brainstorming reflects how higher fuel costs have emerged as one of the Biden administration’s chief political threats and a serious hurdle for the economy overall. (read more)

Jun 17 2022

The Federal Reserve Cannot Combat Inflation Alone


Armstrong Economics Blog/Inflation Re-Posted Jun 17, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Fed Chair Jerome Powell was notably frustrated when pressured about the Fed’s role in inflation. During his Q&A session this Wednesday, Powell plainly stated that the Federal Reserve alone could not combat inflation. It is far more complex than simply raising rates and hoping for the best. The Federal Reserve cannot increase the supply to meet demand. They have no say over clogged ports and closed factories. The Federal Reserve cannot reverse Biden’s policies that have made America energy-dependent, nor can it reserve sanctions against countries that hold essential supplies. As an independent entity, the Federal Reserve has no control over tariffs or diplomatic relations with regard to trade. Notably, the Federal Reserve cannot combat excessive government spending.

The US just sent another billion to Ukraine and plans to continue funding another endless war that does not support any domestic policy objectives. Jerome Powell has no control over the promises politicians make on the campaign trail to distribute free money to the public in exchange for votes. At any moment, lawmakers can implement policies that completely throw the entire economy off track. They had no say in the lockdowns or restrictions that crippled the economy in 2020.

The Federal Reserve miscalculated the situation by artificially lowering rates for a long time. They failed to look at other clear examples, such as Japan, and realize what has and has not worked historically. Powell admitted long ago that he misjudged the severity of inflation and was wrong to call it “transitory.” Unfortunately, when people in power make mistakes, the repercussions cause global shockwaves. Although separate entities, the White House needs to help the Federal Reserve tame inflation by re-evaluating its policies that are directly causing prices to rise.

Jun 17 2022

Russia Gas to Europe to Stop


Armstrong Economics Blog/Energy Re-Posted Jun 16, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The Russian EU Ambassador has informed the EU that gas will stop through Nordstream because a turbine that was needed was stuck in Canada because of the sanctions. Then the biggest gas field in Siberia is now on fire. That can also provide an excuse to reduce gas delivery to Europe. This will also add to the reduction in gas supply to Europe This is making things very interesting. If Gas bottoms next week, we could be looking at much higher volatility thereafter. For now, a June closing above 625 will keep the market in a broader-term support position but a real breakout would require a close for June above 795.

Jun 16 2022

The New G8


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Jun 16, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Russia has created a new alliance that many are calling the “new G8.” Russia was expelled from the original Group of Eight in March 2014, following the annexation of Crimea. Russia stated that it did not care about the snub. “All the economic and financial questions are decided in G20, and G8 has the purpose of existence as the forum of dialogue between the leading Western countries and Russia,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated. There is no dialogue between the major Western superpowers in Russia at this point in time. Former President Obama’s ambassador to Russia, Michael McFaul, went as far as saying that the West must insure Russia has “no real allies.”

Due to backfiring sanctions, Russia certainly does have allies and has created a new G8 for good measure. Vyacheslav Volodin, head of the State Duma, stated the following:

“The economies of the United States, Japan, Germany, Britain, France, Italy, and Canada continue to collapse under the pressure of sanctions against Russia.

The breakup of existing economic relations by Washington and its allies has led to the formation of new points of growth in the world.

The group of eight countries that do not take part in the sanctions wars – China, India, Russia, Indonesia, Brazil, Mexico, Iran, Turkey – is 24.4 per cent ahead of the old group in terms of GDP per capita.”

Volodin said that the seven named countries are interested in developing “mutually beneficial relations with Russia,” and have already seen economic progress despite ongoing sanctions. Putin has also said that he would like to collaborate with emerging economies such as certain African nations that are “still sleeping, but about to wake up.”

The plan to divorce Russia from the world economy has backfired. Russia is increasing its international partnerships and trade as a direct result of the policies aimed at isolating it from the world.

Jun 16 2022

CNN Puts Inflation into a Political Context


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 15, 2022 | Sundance

The people controlling policy behind the Biden administration do not care about polling or political consequence.  Biden is the one-term disposable tool for their collective effort to fundamentally change the United States.  They have a singular focus on pushing the most destructive and consequential Green New Deal policy regardless of collateral damage.  For them, using Joe Biden is a one-way ticket.

That said, none of the current political officeholders within the Democrat apparatus are going to escape the blast radius from this chaos.  CNN runs a segment asking the question, how bad is the damage going to be from the Joe Biden economic policy?  WATCH (90 secs):

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Jun 16 2022

First American Mercenary Contractors Captured in Ukraine by Russian Military


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 15, 2022 | Sundance 

A contracted mercenary has no legal recognition or protection as a prisoner of war.  Two American mercenary soldiers have been captured by Russian forces and now present a rather unique issue for the Biden administration.   The traditional end result for captured mercenaries is execution; however, Russian President Vladimir Putin may not want to hang these two State Dept. conscripts.

(Via Telegraph) – Two former US servicemen have been captured during fighting with Russian forces in Ukraine, The Telegraph has been told. The pair were taken prisoner during a fierce battle outside the north-east city of Kharkiv last week, according to comrades who were fighting alongside them.

Alexander Drueke, 39, and Andy Huynh, 27, had been serving as volunteers with a regular Ukrainian army unit. They are believed to be the first US servicemen to end up as Russian prisoners of war. They join a growing number of Western military volunteers captured by Russian forces, including at least two Britons.

Aiden Aslin and Shaun Pinner have already been told they face the death penalty as “mercenaries”. The capture of the two Americans will be diplomatically sensitive as the Kremlin may seek to use it as proof that America is becoming directly involved in the war. Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, is likely to demand significant concessions to release them. (read more)

Jun 16 2022

Get Beyond the Gaslighting – Media Now Falsely Claim Biden Administration Underestimated Negative U.S. Economic Impact from Russian Sanctions


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 15, 2022 | Sundance

I am tired and weary of the bullshit from every side of the political continuum -particularly the professionally republican idiots- that continue to hide the reality of the situation.  We are adults, let us talk honestly in the framework of reality; that will allow prudent preparation for the massive crisis we are about to experience.

When the tenant realizes they have a leaking fish tank, they realize they are going to be financially responsible for the water damage.  The tenant concocts a plan to avoid responsibility. The tenant intentionally loosens a pipe in the bathroom creating water damage, thereby hiding the fish tank leak.

The owner is now on the hook for the repair. The tenant escapes liability.

The people behind Joe Biden knew their radical transformation of energy policy was going to create massive economic damage.

The people behind Biden used the opportunity of the Ukraine-Russia conflict to trigger economic sanctions they knew would worsen the global inflation damage they were creating through energy policy.

Economic sanctions against Russia were as used as the broken pipe in the bathroom to hide the energy policy fish tank leak.  All of the media discussing the situation are now pretending not to know this.  The conservative pundits are a combination of pretending and too stupid to actually see what is happening.

BLOOMBERG – […] There’s no sign that administration officials feel their sanctions policy was a mistake or that they want to dial back the pressure. If anything, officials have said a key US goal is to ensure Russia can’t do to other nations what it has done in Ukraine. 

But the collateral damage from the sanctions has been wider than expected. 

When the invasion began, the Biden administration believed that if penalties exempted food and energy, the impact on inflation at home would be minimal. Since then, energy and food have become key drivers of the highest US inflation rates in 40 years, a huge political liability for President Joe Biden and the Democratic party heading into November’s mid-term elections. 

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said that she “was wrong” in believing last year that inflationary pressures would pass. One of the results that she’s now seeing is related to the spike in prices due to unexpected self-sanctioning, according to one person familiar with her thinking.

So while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has urged US businesses to cease operations in Russia, telling a joint session of Congress that the Russian market was “flooded with our blood,’’ the Biden administration has been encouraging some commerce, including for agriculture, medicine and telecommunications. For instance, the US government is quietly encouraging agricultural and shipping companies to buy and carry more Russian fertilizer, according to people familiar with the efforts, as sanctions fears have led to a sharp drop in supplies, pressuring food costs. (read more)

Bloomberg is running this article as a distraction, directly implying the Biden administration did not realize how much additional damage the sanctions against Russia would create.  There are many articles of a similar nature by multiple outlets.  All of them are designed to ignore the reality of the situation.

We are rapidly assembling data now that will allow us to give CTH readers a real-world estimate of just how damaging things are going to be.

Tracking raw materials, supply chain costs, distribution limits, advanced and sequential purchase orders, as well as inbound costs associated with the supply chain for essential goods and services, we are nearing enough data to make a prediction.

In the fall of 2021 CTH was able to provide a 100-day countdown window to the first major wave of inflationary impacts.  Purchase orders cycling in net terms of 30, 60, 90 or 180 days allowed us to see the increases in product costs that were aggregating in the supply chain.  Readers watched in real time as those weeks and months passed giving us the exact outcome we expected.

While we still need a little more data to make the best possible prediction for the next 120-day forecast, I am relatively certain we can give an advanced estimate today.

A current shopping cart of traditional staple items at the supermarket (full basket) is roughly $300 representing about a $75 increase in price since early January 2022.   The $300 typical basket is essentially enough product to create 10 days of multiple purpose meals for the average family (4 people).

Using that $300 basket as the new baseline, I can predict the next wave of price increases will drive that single basket cost to $500 by late fall.  This is the scale of inbound inflation that is going to arrive at approximately the same time as the mid-term election.

As you can tell, the next wave of price increases is significantly larger than the two that preceded it.  The $300 shopping cart is going to cost around $500 when all of the increased costs are fully matriculated in the retail supply chain.  This is the scale of food store inflation you should be preparing for now.  Offsetting this cost increase is the challenge you should be considering right now.

More details will follow, but the final numbers are going to be close to this scale.

Jun 15 2022

Russian Oil Boycott Fails


Armstring Economics Blog/Energy Re-Posted Jun 15, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The West thought they’d cripple Russia’s economy when they stopped buying Russian oil. Gas prices in the West are on the rise and at unsustainable levels. Meanwhile, Putin is having the last laugh as he is now selling more oil at a higher price point.

In April, Russian oil exports rose by 620,000 b/d to 8.1 million b/d. India (+730,000 b/d) and Turkey (+180,000 b/d) helped to offset the international embargo, while the EU remained the largest importer despite a sharp reduction in shipments. The IEA reported that Russian oil exports rose over 50% YoY during the first four months of the year.

Oil jumped in price last week from $92 per barrel to $122. Gas in the US was $2.10 under Trump. Biden took office and prices rose to $2.37 within the first two months due to a series of decisions that prevented America from remaining energy independent. Before Russia even invaded, gas reached $3.51 per gallon, and now the national average is surpassing $5.00. The boycott has completely backfired on the West and has helped strengthen the Russian economy.

Jun 15 2022

Joe Biden is Yelling at Everyone Again


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 14, 2022

June 14, 2022 | Sundance | 261 Comments

Earlier today, angry Joe was channeling his inner thug as he harkened back to the good old days when labor unions were cracking skulls on behalf of the communists and socialists.  Giving the pretense of connection to the working class is a performance technique Biden has used throughout his career, but it holds absolutely no basis in reality.

Appearing at the AFL-CIO convention today, Biden began yelling at the brotherhood.  In his mind anger, violence and conflict is what he believes organized labor is all about, so his performance is designed to convey that connection.  It’s more than a little weird, it’s creepy. WATCH:

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Jun 14 2022

Credit Card Debt on the Rise


Armstrong Economics Blog/USA Current Events Re-Posted Jun 14, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The various handouts and moratoriums during the pandemic drove the personal savings rate down to World War II levels. Everything was closed – there weren’t many opportunities to spend. US consumers paid off a record $83 billion in credit card debt during the pandemic, but that has all come crashing down.

The Federal Reserve reported that revolving credit card debt in April reached $1.103 trillion, surpassing pre-pandemic levels and spiking 20% from the year prior. Credit card balances reached an alarming $841 billion in the first three months of this year alone, and the Fed expects that figure to continue rising due to the unsustainable price of living. In addition, household debt is now close to $16 trillion after consumer debt spiked 1.7% in Q1.

Unfortunately for those already behind, the rising interest rates will only cause them to carry a higher balance of debt. Once the prime rate rises, credit card companies will follow. The APR on credit cards is already 16.61%, nearing the high of 17.87%, on average, but is expected to rise. Debt can easily become a vicious cycle from which there is little escape for the average person. Those who budgeted in the belief that Biden would actually cancel their student debt were misled if not gullible. As housing, food, gas, and other necessities rise, those who are already void of liquid assets will find themselves in a dire situation.