Putin on Sanctions & the BRICS Boogeyman


Posted originally on Feb 13, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Tucker v Putin

I do not advise governments to use sanctions for leverage due to the economic implications that may take time to materialize. In April 2020, I wrote, Once you impose sanctions, you create a cold war. Look at Russia. Nixon opened China to divide and conquer. Are we really that stupid to close China and encourage them to join Russia in a cold war that will further destroy the world economy and most likely lead to real war?” The US and EU attempted to remove Russia from the global economy through sanctions and prohibiting them from the SWIFT network. Putin further explained in his interview with Tucker Carlson why this was a “grave mistake” for the future of the USD.

Using the dollar for political struggles dealt a blow to the USD that has not yet been felt. First, freezing the assets of Russians sent a signal to the whole world that the USD may not be the safest place to park your money if you happen to be in an “unfriendly” nation. Even our own allies have begun downsizing their dollar reserves.

SWIFT Banking Systems

The SWIFT system was never meant to be used as a political instrument. The West began looking into ways to remove Russia from this payment system back in 2014, and when they finally did, Russia began processing its payments elsewhere. Putin also correctly stated in the interview that China, not Russia, is the larger threat to the West in terms of size, population, manufacturing, and, most importantly, the growing power of the yuan.

The BRICS alliance is stronger than ever before as nations are collaborating without the need for the dollar. This does NOT mean that they are planning to replace the dollar, a myth that Putin termed the “BRICS boogeyman” as the Western media portrays the organization as a major threat to global security. However, this does mean that the yuan will grow in strength, as we have seen with the slow death of the petrodollar. The BRICS partnership means that members are no longer dependent on Western energy, and eventually, no one will be dependent on Western trade or debt. Only a fool would buy their enemy’s debt and expect to receive anything in return. Again, this will happen on target cyclically as nothing remains forever. The dollar overpowered sterling, and the yuan is next in line.

Putin Xi

There are boogeyman fables that cooperation with China will lead to the destruction of the West, yet that is happening as a result of our leaders abandoning all domestic policies for globalization. Every nation in the EU and North America has made decisions that directly hurt its own economy but are beneficial to the coming globalization that they wish to bring forth, as stated every year at Davos.

“You can’t choose your neighbors like you can’t choose relatives,” Putin stated in regards to China, “We have a centuries-long history of coexistence.” He correctly stated that China always looks for compromise. They are an independent nation that has not fallen to the globalist agenda and there are not neocons within the ranks looking to bring China into perpetual warfare. The media is afraid of the “no limits” alliance between Russia and China, but look at how China has remained relatively neutral since the war in Ukraine began when they could have easily aided their neighbor. Furthermore, Europe is now closer economically to China than Russia is, as Europe is desperate for solutions to its economic issues and sees China as an opportunity.

Solar_Cycles 22 23and24 1024x768

Putin stated numerous times that US analysts are the ones discussing these problems, and he is simply repeating what he has read. I have not personally advised Putin, but I do believe his people read our work as he was attempting to explain cycles. “It is like the rise of the sun. You cannot prevent the sun from rising. You must adapt to it,” he said as one analogy. Cycles, indeed, are the operating system behind absolutely everything. Civilization does not change; war and periods of economic decline are inevitable. We can merely observe and learn from the trends to adapt accordingly.

Surviving Nuclear War


Posted originally on Feb 3, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Seaweed Food

COMMENT: I just read Newsweek. I now know why you live on the beach. You can convert the water to fresh and live off of seaweed. Very interesting.

Paul

Beach Lovely

REPLY: Paul, I also like the fresh air, the white sand, blue water, and the sky is different every day.

Interview: Martin Armstrong’s Socrates 2024 Election and Economic Forecasts — Part 1


Posted originally on Jan 31, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Join Kerry Lutz and renowned economist Martin Armstrong for a captivating discussion centered around the Socrates computer model’s uncanny accuracy in predicting political and market trends since 1985. Discover the model’s compelling projection of a 61% chance for a Republican victory in the upcoming 2024 election and its implications for the political landscape.

Delve into the erosion of confidence in government, potential election irregularities, and the profound impact of deviations from historical election norms. Gain insights into the influence of various political agendas, including discussions about veiled threats and the involvement of influential figures like Klaus Schwab and George Soros in funding Democratic elections.

Transitioning to market forecasts, Martin Armstrong reaffirms his earlier prediction regarding the crucial turning point in January. Explore the far-reaching effects of global capital trends on stock markets, with a focus on how geopolitical events shape investment decisions and influence various stock market indexes.

The conversation also tackles pressing economic issues, such as the potential consequences of increased taxes and selective debt default, the dollar’s reserve currency status, and the challenges faced by farmers and migration trends within the United States. Despite technical challenges, Kerry Lutz and Martin Armstrong exhibit adaptability and resilience, making this discussion a must-watch for those seeking insights into the ever-evolving world of politics and finance.

New Video on Models


Posted originally on Jan 27, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Interview: Gold Surges Between War-Driven Inflation Dynamics


Posted originally on Jan 14, 2024 By Martin Armstrong |

Interview with GoldSeek Radio:

Head of Armstrong Economics, Martin Armstrong, reviews charts of the major indexes in real-time, noting “2024 could be a chaotic year.”

– Interest rates rise during boom periods.

“Yeah, I think people have to understand that the vast majority of analysis out there is all domestic. They’re just calling for the Fed and I think so many of them are talking about a major crash in 2024. What they never do is look outside the country. And honestly, if you look at the 3 indexes look at the Dow, the S&P, and then the NASDAQ, you’ll see the Dow leading.

And that is basically showing you that what’s going on here is international capital inflows. I mean, the more it’s getting crazy for wars just about everywhere. From Asia, you’re looking at the Middle East. You’re looking at Europe. We have probably more institutional clients than anybody in the world and they’re all starting to wake up a little bit and hedging their bets and they’re moving money to the States. That’s why the Dow has been rising, more so than you see. We have probably more institutional clients than anybody in the world and they’re all starting to wake up a little.

… but then again you have people just looking at the Fed and talking about ‘Oh, transparency.’ And is they only ever keep talking about old defense, going to ‘Lower rates, lower rates, lower rates.’

If you really look at it, objectively, interest rates always rise during boom periods, and they decline during recessions and depressions. We are looking at increased inflation, probably into 2028 caused by shortages and war. But you’re looking at a declining economic growth, so that ends up being more like the 1970s…and you’re looking there at what we call “Stagflation” where the inflation rate will be higher than economic growth.

– Increased inflation could erupt due to supply shortages and skirmishes.
– Stagflation similar to the 70’s could soon come to the domestic economy.

“That was basically caused by OPEC raising the price of oil dramatically and that created a cost-push inflation. So everybody’s costs were rising dramatically. Anything that had to do with plastic, went up dramatically and that created eventually the inflationary boom between 1976 going into 1980. As for gold rose to $875, etc…I think gold was about a $100 in 1976 and it rose to about $400 but that was by December 1979, the last six weeks of the rally, which peaked in 1980 on January 21st. So from December to January 21st, that’s when Russia invaded Afghanistan. So it was the geopolitical stuff that took gold from $400 to $875. So it’s important to understand inflation is not the major driving power but inflation when war is around – that’s what broke Bretton Woods…it was the Vietnam War.”

– Funds may be flowing into the blue-chip Dow Jones 30 stocks from global unrest.
– Geopolitical opinion and commentary.

Gold v Political Reform


Posted originally on Jan 14, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Dow Gold Ratio Y 1 13 24

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, My wife insists that I write to thank you for making me invest in stocks rather than gold. We split the money, and my wife invested in the Dow with your 2015 ECM turn, and I kept the gold. She beat me on the Dow since it closed in 2023, up about 250%. After reading your input into history, am I correct that this argument of fiat currency is erroneous? It seems like civilizations have risen and fallen, no matter the money system at the time. Could you elaborate on whether this is true or false?

Disappointed goldbug.

PismoBeach1933Clamshell

ANSWER: Not many men would admit their wives beat them in investments. Many things have been used for money, from bronze and clam shells to emergency paper currency. Those who insist that somehow gold is the only thing that is money do not know their history, and in the process, they have been misled seriously, which actually prevents them from seeing the real problem. Bitcoin is not money nor a medium of exchange because not everyone will accept it. A medium of exchange has to be something that everyone accepts.

There is a common theme that runs through ALL forms of money, and it has NOTHING to do with what is being used as the medium of exchange.

Minoan Ingot Sheep Skin

If we are objective, even metal has varied. Bronze was valuable because it could be used to make a tool or a weapon – hence the Bronze Age. It was first used in an ingot form. However, it was cast in the shape of an earlier form of money – sheepskins. Thus, the story of Jason is in search of the golden fleece.

Rome AesSignatum Bull
Lydia FirstCoins

The Romans cast bronze into ingots, and the value was equal to one head of cattle. The first coins of Rome are also bronze, beginning with just lumps and then taking the standardized weight and shape. In Turkey, they began with what was known as electrum, which was a natural alloy mixture of gold and silver found in the riverbeds.

The official first coins were struck in Lydia, modern-day Turkey. This was the first “fiat” money since it was declared a standard value by the king, who applied the image of a lion. This was his badge, certifying its value and weight.

Orichalcum

For example, there was a metal that was second to gold, which was really just brass. Orichalcum was the legendary metal of Atlantis, whose buildings were said to have been clad in this rare metal that looked similar to gold. Orichalcum was mined in Atlantis in ancient times, but by the time of Plato, this metal was unknown. Orichalcum was a legend by Plato’s time when he mentioned it in his story of Atlantis in the Critas of Plato. Critias (460–403 BC) says that Orichalcum had been considered second only to gold in value and had been found and mined in many parts of

NERO_AE_Dup AE As

Nero also experimented with issuing the traditional bronze coinage in Orichalcum (brass). In order to render the Dupondius distinguishable from its half-denomination, Roman As a radiate crown was added to this denomination, leaving the traditional laurel wreath style portrait for the Roman As. The Dupondius reform prevailed until the end of Dupondius’s regular issues, while the experiment in brass died out following Hadrian (117-138AD).

Common Theme

A gold standard will not solve the problem because it is NOT what is being used as money but the system. If governments issued platinum coins and claimed these are worth $100,000 each, that is also fiat, where the government decrees the value. This common thread that runs through everything is the trustworthiness of the government. As long as we have socialism, where politicians promise things, they will always create more money to accomplish that. DEBT = MONEY that pays interest. People also point to the Fed and overlook the fact that it is Congress that creates the money by issuing debt that can be used as an asset in a loan.

Gold will not solve the problem. We need political reform FIRST and then worry about constraining government thereafter.

Inversen Interviews Webb


Posted originally on Jan 8, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Mark Pittman & the Bankers


Posted originally on Jan 6, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

The late Mark Pittman was a journalist for Bloomberg when, once upon a time, there were still a few actual investigative reporters. Mark did a piece on my operation in Japan. He knew what we were doing, that the accounts were mine, not clients, and that I was buying distressed portfolios. Not one client ever signed a complaint, and there was NO DEFAULT. When they charged me. I met Mark at the Hyatt in NYC across from the Train Station. He knew it was a setup and said: “Marty, we are not going to allow them to do this to you.”

Trenton no Defaults 9 13 1999
HSBC Gag Cover

The law says that if you commit fraud, you MUST help the victims get their money back. Further proof of how New York City is a cesspool of corruption: when they realized I was helping my clients go after the bankers, they put a gag order on me to stop me from helping my clients against HSBC/Republic. They have been doing the same to Trump. The Special Prosecutor went as far as to demand a gag order on Trump so that he could not even criticize Biden while campaigning. You cannot make up this stuff. If you wrote a fiction novel with these maneuvers, they would say it is too far-fetched.

I think it is absolutely critical as Trump is put on trial in New York City. I was granted bail in New Jersey. Not a single NY journalist ever reported the Truth no less the courts. I was interviewed by a journalist who asked about the bank illegally trading in my accounts. She asked if they were using my accounts to “launder money for the Russian Mafia as they were doing in Madof?” The banks claimed in Madoff’s case not to have known. That is absolutely IMPOSSIBLE, for you have to know your client rules. They verified every account and the corporate documents behind each one. Madoff pled guilty to an information quickly. He was not indicted and could have defended for a few years. The only reason he did so was clearly to protect his family. Just as in my case, the bank claimed it had no idea where the money was. It is impossible to get $1 billion out of a bank, and nobody knows where it went. There is NO SUCH thing as a fair trial in New York City. Trump is doomed there, and this is all about interfering in the 2024 election.

Pittman Mark

Mark understood the bankers very well. Bloomberg removed Mark from covering my case and replaced him with David Glovin, who could never praise the government more. It was Mark at Bloomberg who battled in court for years to get the details of those bailouts released to the public. Mark was probably the most professional journalist I ever met. I was told after my case began that Bloomberg purged all the reports Mark had previously written about our firm from their terminals and certainly Japan. It was as if Bloomberg was in on the whole scam.

Mark’s wife, Laura, wrote to me about Mark’s death. It was a sad day, for there was NEVER anyone at Bloomberg I ever met who had the integrity of Mark Pittman.

Pittman lAURA lETTER

What Will the Fed do in 2024?


Posted originally on Jan 3, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Powell_Unsustainable_12 1 23

Everyone wants to know what the Federal Reserve will do in 2024. Of course, people want to believe that the Fed will slash interest rates in the New Year. The pundits cling to every word except when, at the start of the month of December, Powell boldly criticized the Biden Administration, saying that his outrageous spending is “unsustainable” and central banks do not criticize their governments. They certainly do not criticize each other. I have met with the boards of central banks worldwide because I understand their predicament. Unless you have been behind those closed doors, you will never comprehend the intricacies that are taking place.

Federal Reserve Bank

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held rates at the 5.25% to 5.5% range at their last meeting in December 2023. Additionally, the committee indicated the possibility of at least three rate cuts in 2024, as their favored gauges for inflation appear to be easing. The “dot plot,” which reflects individual members’ expectations, suggests the potential for four rate cuts in 2025 and three more in 2026, bringing the rate down to between 2% and 2.25%. Now, that is simply what the public has been led to believe.

The Fed’s last decision reflects a cautious approach to policy tightening, considering multiple factors unknown to the public before any further adjustments. The committee’s PUBLIC decision and future outlook are based on the evolving economic conditions in relation to inflation and the labor market.

The Federal Open Market Committee will meet in 2024 as follows:

  • Jan. 30-31
  • Mar. 19-20
  • Apr. 30 – May 1
  • Jun. 11-12
  • Jul. 30-31
  • Sept. 17-18
  • Nov. 6-7
  •  Dec.  17-18
2023 Year End Report

There are simply things I cannot publish on the public blog. I have posted articles on the Socrates private blog that explain the Fed’s direction for 2024 in further detail. Now, consider the dates above and consider what events align with them. Further details will be provided in the Year-End Report, which should be out by the end of this week.

Federal Reserve 1951 Accord

The Federal Reserve cannot criticize the federal government. The most significant issues facing our economy are simply out of the Fed’s hands: war, taxation, and government spending. Chairman Jerome Powell surprised everyone when he called current government spending “unsustainable.” While not a direct criticism, Powell issued a stark warning that aligns with our Revolution Cycle of 72 years. In 1951, the central bank defied the US government by refusing to purchase debt to prevent rate hikes amid the Korean War.

So, there is bad news for the perpetual bulls who insist rates must decline. There is a HUGE divergence unfolding between short and long-term rates. Institutions are buying up government debt without considering the potential that rates may not fall. Absolutely no one is factoring in the largest driver of inflation – WAR – nor are they factoring in the three main pillars of government debauchery (war, taxation, government spending) that the Fed cannot control.

Deep Dive Radio Interview Pt IV Trailer


Posted originally on Dec 30, 2023 By Martin Armstrong 

The full interview will be available around January 7.