Wharton Finance Professor Looks Deeper into June Jobs Data, Outlook Not So Good – Hours Worked Dropped Equivalent to 450,000 Lost Jobs


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 8, 2022 | sundance

University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School of Business, Finance Professor Jeremy Siegel, takes a closer look at the June jobs data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Professor Siegel notes a .01% drop in average hours worked is the labor equivalent of losing 450,000 jobs.

With factory demand dropping, and with inventories climbing, and with FTE’s (Full-Time Equivalents) dropping, the jobs report takes on additional context that aligns with the overall decline we feel in Main Street activity.  Essentially, regardless of how many jobs are “created” within the economy, the overall economic activity -as measured by the value of products & services generated- is declining.

Additionally, as noted by Professor Siegal, the current best estimate as reviewed by the several data points, is a current drop in overall GDP in the -2% range.   Seigal points this information out because the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates into an economy that has declining (demand side) consumer activity, which, correctly as he states, only makes the contraction more severe.  WATCH:

The core supply side costs (all based on energy policy) continue to increase and drive consumer prices upward.  Simultaneously, consumer demand is dropping because the goods and services impacted by the increased costs (most of which are unavoidable) are more expensive.  This creates a downward spiral.  Consumer prices are increasing on housing, energy, food and gasoline (supply side impacts), at the same time discretionary spending contracts.

In this scenario there is no way to avoid a steep recession.  However, the real priority of Joe Biden surrounds whether Jill will allow his favorite pudding, and if the shoes on the pancake mix keeps making sparkly rabbit noises.

COVID Came from a Lab Said Lancet Chairman


Armstrong Economics Blog/Disease Re-Posted Jul 9, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Interview: Prepare for War, Higher Energy Prices & Significant Civil Unrest


Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Jul 9, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Click here to read Greg Hunter’s summary of the interview and view other content on USAWatchdog.

Schwab’s Puppet Falls?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Humor Re-Posted Jul 8, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Former PM of Japan Assassinated


Armstrong Economics Blog/Japan Re-Posted Jul 8, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Japan’s former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has been assassinated in a rare violent attack in Japan. He was shot while delivering a speech in Nara. He was pronounced dead at 5:03 p.m. local time at the hospital. The assassin was captured, Tetsuya Yamagami, 41, who may have served in the Maritime Self-Defense Force back in the 2000s. He apparently used a homemade gun, which shows that in a country with some of the strictest gun laws in the entire world, it still does not prevent such acts.

Violent crime in the United States peaked in 1991 and bottomed in 2014 with our model on civil unrest and the war cycle. It appears that because of the lockdowns, this may have pushed many on-the-edge people over the edge for we are witnessing mass shootings and senseless violent crimes like people killing someone over a parking spot. This appears to be unfolding worldwide. In this case, the guy made his own gun. This is a trend that is starting to appear in the United States where guns are not traceable.

Elon Musk Terminates Twitter Purchase Deal, Citing Material Breach of Agreement by Company Refusing to Provide Access to Data


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 8, 2022 | sundance

Elon Musk has notified Twitter and the SEC [SEE LETTER HERE] that he is exercising his “right to terminate the merger agreement and abandon the transaction contemplated” due to the social media company not providing transparent access to background data that would allow authentication of “monetized daily active users” (mDAUs).

It appears that Twitter Inc did not want to reveal how Jack’s Magic Coffee Shop was able to sustain operations, at an extremely high cost, without making money.   That’s the essential source of the issue.

The social media company did not want anyone looking at the data stream inside the communication platform.   Musk was not allowed to authenticate the number of real users and identify the number of ‘spam’ or ‘bot’ accounts within the platform.

From the SEC Letter: […] ” Specifically, in the Merger Agreement, Twitter represented that no documents that Twitter filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission since January 1, 2022, included any “untrue statement of a material fact” (Section 4.6(a)). Twitter has repeatedly made statements in such filings regarding the portion of its mDAUs that are false or spam, including statements that: “We have performed an internal review of a sample of accounts and estimate that the average of false or spam accounts during the first quarter of 2022 represented fewer than 5% of our mDAU during the quarter,” and “After we determine an account is spam, malicious automation, or fake, we stop counting it in our mDAU, or other related metrics.”

Mr. Musk relied on this representation in the Merger Agreement (and Twitter’s numerous public statements regarding false and spam accounts in its publicly filed SEC documents) when agreeing to enter into the Merger Agreement. Mr. Musk has the right to seek rescission of the Merger Agreement in the event these material representations are determined to be false.

Although Twitter has not yet provided complete information to Mr. Musk that would enable him to do a complete and comprehensive review of spam and fake accounts on Twitter’s platform, he has been able to partially and preliminarily analyze the accuracy of Twitter’s disclosure regarding its mDAU. While this analysis remains ongoing, all indications suggest that several of Twitter’s public disclosures regarding its mDAUs are either false or materially misleading

First, although Twitter has consistently represented in securities filings that “fewer than 5%” of its mDAU are false or spam accounts, based on the information provided by Twitter to date, it appears that Twitter is dramatically understating the proportion of spam and false accounts represented in its mDAU count. Preliminary analysis by Mr. Musk’s advisors of the information provided by Twitter to date causes Mr. Musk to strongly believe that the proportion of false and spam accounts included in the reported mDAU count is wildly higher than 5%

Second, Twitter’s disclosure that it ceases to count fake or spam users in its mDAU when it determines that those users are fake appears to be false. Instead, we understand, based on Twitter’s representations during a June 30, 2022 call with us, that Twitter includes accounts that have been suspended—and thus are known to be fake or spam—in its quarterly mDAU count even when it is aware that the suspended accounts were included in mDAU for that quarter.

Last, Twitter has represented that it is “continually seeking to improve our ability to estimate the total number of spam accounts and eliminate them from the calculation of our mDAU…” But, Twitter’s process for calculating its mDAU, and the percentage of mDAU comprised of non-monetizable spam accounts, appears to be arbitrary and ad hoc. Disclosing that Twitter has a reasoned process for calculating mDAU when the opposite is true would be false and misleading. (more)

In April of this year the social media company Twitter said revenue for the first quarter totaled $1.2 billion (+16%). However, costs and expenses totaled $1.33 billion (+35%), resulting in an operating loss of $128 million (link).  Another unsustainable financial result for a company that doesn’t make a dime in profit, yet it continues to operate.

The metaphorical Jack had a great idea, open a coffee shop where the beverages were free and use internal advertising as the income subsidy to operate the business.  Crowds came for the free coffee, comfy couches, fellowship, conversation and enjoyment.

It didn’t matter where Jack got the coffee, how he paid for it, or didn’t, or what product advertising the customers would be exposed to while there.  Few people thought about such things.  Curiously, it didn’t matter what size the crowd was; in the backroom of Jack’s Coffee Shop, they were able to generate massive amounts of never-ending free coffee at extreme scales.

Over time, using the justification of parking lot capacity and township regulations, not everyone would be able to park and enter.  Guards were placed at the entrance to pre-screen customers. A debate began.

Alternative coffee shops opened around town.  It was entirely possible to duplicate Jacks Coffee Shop, yet no one could duplicate the business model for the free coffee.  Indeed, there was something very unique about Jack’s Coffee Shop.  Thus, some underlying suspicions were raised:

The only way Twitter, with 217 million users, could exist as a viable platform is if they had access to tech systems of incredible scale and performance, and those systems were essentially free or very cheap.  The only entity that could possibly provide that level of capacity and scale is the United States Government – combined with a bottomless bank account.  A public-private partnership.

If my hunch is correct, Elon Musk is poised to expose the well-kept secret that most social media platforms are operating on U.S. government tech infrastructure and indirect subsidy.  Let that sink in.

The U.S. technology system, the assembled massive system of connected databases and server networks, is the operating infrastructure that offsets the cost of Twitter to run their own servers and database.  The backbone of Twitter is the United States government.

FREE COFFEE:

♦ June 2013: […] “Cloud computing is one of the core components of the strategy to help the IC discover, access and share critical information in an era of seemingly infinite data.” … “A test scenario described by GAO in its June 2013 bid protest opinion suggests the CIA sought to compare how the solutions presented by IBM and Amazon Web Services (AWS) could crunch massive data sets, commonly referred to as big data.” … “Solutions had to provide a “hosting environment for applications which process vast amounts of information in parallel on large clusters (thousands of nodes) of commodity hardware” using a platform called MapReduce. Through MapReduce, clusters were provisioned for computation and segmentation. Test runs assumed clusters were large enough to process 100 terabytes of raw input data. AWS’ solution received superior marks from CIA procurement officials”… (MORE)

♦ November 2013: […] “Twitter closed its first day of trading on Nov. 7, 2013, at $44.90 a share. In the years since then, it briefly traded above $70, but more recently, it has struggled.”

Jack’s Magic Coffee Shot has been for sale, but there’s no viable business model in the private sector.  No one has wanted to purchase Twitter – it is simply unsustainable; the data processing costs, specifically the server data processing demand for simultaneous active users, exceeds the capacity of the platform to generate revenue – until now….

And suddenly, the people who work in the backroom of Jack’s Magic Coffee Shop did not want Jack to sell.

Twitter is not making a decision to decline the generous offer by Elon Musk because of stewardship or fiduciary responsibility to shareholders.  The financials of Twitter as a non-viable business model highlight the issue of money being irrelevant.  Twitter does not and cannot make money.  Growing Twitter only means growing an expense. Growing Twitter does not grow revenue enough to offset the increase in expense.

There is only one way for Twitter to exist as a viable entity, people are now starting to realize this.

What matters to the people behind Twitter, the people who are subsidizing the ability of Twitter to exist, is control over the global conversation.

Control of the conversation is priceless to the people who provide the backbone for Twitter.

Once people realize who is subsidizing Twitter, everything changes.

That’s the fight. (more)

♦ 2021, Public-Private Partnership – The modern Fourth Branch of Government is only possible because of a Public-Private partnership with the intelligence apparatus. You do not have to take my word for it, the partnership is so brazen they have made public admissions.

The biggest names in Big Tech announced in June their partnership with the Five Eyes intelligence network, ultimately controlled by the NSA, to: (1) monitor all activity in their platforms; (2) identify extremist content; (3) look for expressions of Domestic Violent Extremism (DVE); and then, (4) put the content details into a database where the Five Eyes intelligence agencies (U.K., U.S., Australia, Canada, New Zealand) can access it.

Facebook, Twitter, Google and Microsoft are all partnering with the intelligence apparatus. It might be difficult to fathom how openly they admit this, but they do. Look at this sentence in the press release (emphasis mine):

[…] “The Group will use lists from intelligence-sharing group Five Eyes adding URLs and PDFs from more groups, including the Proud Boys, the Three Percenters and neo-Nazis.”

Think about that sentence structure very carefully. They are “adding to” the preexisting list…. admitting the group (aka Big Tech) already have access to the the intelligence-sharing database… and also admitting there is a preexisting list created by the Five Eyes consortium.

Obviously, who and what is defined as “extremist content” will be determined by the Big Tech insiders themselves. This provides a gateway, another plausible deniability aspect, to cover the Intelligence Branch from any oversight.

When the Intelligence Branch within government wants to conduct surveillance and monitor American citizens, they run up against problems due to the Constitution of the United States. They get around those legal limitations by sub-contracting the intelligence gathering, the actual data-mining, and allowing outside parties (contractors) to have access to the central database.

The government cannot conduct electronic searches (4th amendment issue) without a warrant; however, private individuals can search and report back as long as they have access. What is being admitted is exactly that preexisting partnership. The difference is that Big Tech will flag the content from within their platforms, and now a secondary database filled with the extracted information will be provided openly for the Intelligence Branch to exploit.

The volume of metadata captured by the NSA has always been a problem because of the filters needed to make the targeting useful. There is a lot of noise in collecting all data that makes the parts you really want to identify more difficult to capture. This new admission puts a new massive filtration system in the metadata that circumvents any privacy protections for individuals.

Previously, the Intelligence Branch worked around the constitutional and unlawful search issue by using resources that were not in the United States. A domestic U.S. agency, working on behalf of the U.S. government, cannot listen on your calls without a warrant. However, if the U.S. agency sub-contracts to say a Canadian group, or foreign ally, the privacy invasion is no longer legally restricted by U.S. law.

What was announced in June 2021 is an alarming admission of a prior relationship along with open intent to define their domestic political opposition as extremists.

July 26, 2021, (Reuters) – A counterterrorism organization formed by some of the biggest U.S. tech companies including Facebook (FB.O) and Microsoft (MSFT.O) is significantly expanding the types of extremist content shared between firms in a key database, aiming to crack down on material from white supremacists and far-right militias, the group told Reuters.

Until now, the Global Internet Forum to Counter Terrorism’s (GIFCT) database has focused on videos and images from terrorist groups on a United Nations list and so has largely consisted of content from Islamist extremist organizations such as Islamic State, al Qaeda and the Taliban.

Over the next few months, the group will add attacker manifestos – often shared by sympathizers after white supremacist violence – and other publications and links flagged by U.N. initiative Tech Against Terrorism. It will use lists from intelligence-sharing group Five Eyes, adding URLs and PDFs from more groups, including the Proud Boys, the Three Percenters and neo-Nazis.

The firms, which include Twitter (TWTR.N) and Alphabet Inc’s (GOOGL.O) YouTube, share “hashes,” unique numerical representations of original pieces of content that have been removed from their services. Other platforms use these to identify the same content on their own sites in order to review or remove it. (read more)

The influence of the Intelligence Branch now reaches into our lives, our personal lives. In the decades before 9/11/01 the intelligence apparatus intersected with government, influenced government, and undoubtedly controlled many institutions with it. The legislative oversight function was weak and growing weaker, but it still existed and could have been used to keep the IC in check. However, after the events of 9/11/01, the short-sighted legislative reactions opened the door to allow the surveillance state to weaponize.

After the Patriot Act was triggered, not coincidentally only six weeks after 9/11, a slow and dangerous fuse was lit that ends with the intelligence apparatus being granted a massive amount of power. The problem with assembled power is always what happens when a Machiavellian network takes control over that power and begins the process to weaponize the tools for their own malicious benefit. That is exactly what the installation of Barack Obama was all about.

The Obama network took pre-assembled intelligence weapons we should never have allowed to be created, and turned those weapons into tools for his radical and fundamental change. The target was the essential fabric of our nation. Ultimately, this corrupt political process gave power to create the Fourth Branch of Government, the Intelligence Branch. From that perspective the fundamental change was successful.

It’s all Connected FolksSEE HERE

[…] “The vision was first outlined in the Intelligence Community Information Technology Enterprise plan championed by Director of National Intelligence James Clapper and IC Chief Information Officer Al Tarasiuk almost three years ago.” … “It is difficult to underestimate the cloud contract’s importance. In a recent public appearance, CIA Chief Information Officer Douglas Wolfe called it “one of the most important technology procurements in recent history,” with ramifications far outside the realm of technology.” (READ MORE)

One job…. “take the preexisting system and retool it so the weapons of government only targeted one side of the political continuum.”

Say cheers for subsidized data processing through the cloud.  The only thing we ask in advance is for operational nodes to monitor and extract data that is within computing systems.

Cheers”… 

Joe Biden Pledges to Retain the Killing of Unborn Babies as National Priority, Signs Executive Order Saying Abortion “is essential to justice, equality, and our health, safety, and progress as a Nation”


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 8, 2022 | sundance

Earlier today Joe Biden held an official ceremony promoting the killing of unborn babies as a legacy initiative of his administration. Biden signed an executive order [View Here] stating that abortion “is essential to justice, equality, and our health, safety, and progress as a Nation.”

{Direct Rumble Link} – Executive Order Here – WATCH:

(Via Reuters) – […] Biden, [a member of the progressive death cult], has been under pressure from supporters, particularly progressives, to take action after the landmark decision, which upended roughly 50 years of protections for women’s reproductive rights.

The president’s powers are constrained, because U.S. states can make laws restricting abortion and access to medication, and the executive order is expected to have limited impact.

Biden will direct the Health and Human Services Department to take action to protect and expand access to “medication abortion” approved by the Food and Drug Administration, the White House said.

Experts have said a pill used to terminate early pregnancies is unlikely to become available without a prescription for years. States that already restrict the medication would not be affected by the presidential order.

He will also direct the department to ensure women have access to emergency medical care, family planning services, and contraception, including intrauterine devices (IUDs).

Biden’s attorney general and White House counsel will convene pro bono attorneys and other organizations to provide legal counsel for patients seeking an abortion as well as abortion providers.

“Such representation could include protecting the right to travel out of state to seek medical care,” the White House said in a statement. (read more)

June Jobs Report Shows Gains of 372,000, April and May Reports Revised Downward by 74,000


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 8, 2022 | sundance 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has released the June jobs report [Data Here] showing 372,000 job gains on the establishment survey of businesses.  However, the April and May reports were revised downward by 74,000 jobs, and there is an odd disconnect between the survey of businesses and the survey of households.

The survey of businesses (BLS establishment report) shows job gains of 372k for the month of June, but the survey of households (BLS household report) shows that fewer people are working.  The labor-force participation rate slipped to 62.2% from a previous high of 62.4%, fewer people are working.

This odd disconnect has many people wondering what is going on?

Wage growth comes in at 5.1% on an annual basis, which is far below the current BLS calculated rate of inflation at 8.6%. Meaning wage growth is not keeping up with inflation despite workers entering the labor force at a higher entry level wage.

Economists overall are flummoxed as job gains would indicate a strong economy. However, the actual economic activity, the creation of goods and services, is not growing.  Quite the opposite appears.  Orders for factory goods have dropped, inventories of currently available goods are climbing, and sales figures across a broad spectrum of companies are negative.  The economy as measured by the creation of goods and services is stalled, but the economy as a measure of employment is firm.

Table B-1 of the BLS report shows where the jobs gains are being recorded.  Employment in professional and business services added 74,000 jobs in June, employment in leisure and hospitality added 67,000. Transportation and warehousing added 36,000 jobs, and manufacturing increased by 29,000. Simultaneously, retail ‘general merchandise’ stores lost 7,000 jobs, and residential building construction lost 4,500 jobs.

It would appear that as spending priorities are definitely taking place; the jobs growth is in the current maintenance of lifestyle and not the ‘moving up’ in lifestyle.  This would align with the general sentiment of the labor force that most people are just trying to get through the massive inflation impact and sustain their current rate of household expenses.

The decline in the labor force in June “is hard to explain,” said chief economist Aneta Markowska of Jefferies LLC, in light of the strong demand for labor. (link)

It’s really not that hard to figure out what is happening.  Well, I should say, not that hard to figure out, unless your job is to pretend not to know things.

Governor Ron DeSantis Delivers Remarks Following the Assassination of Shinzo Abe


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 8, 2022 | sundance 

Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was a bulwark against communist expansion in Asia.  Abe was a strong voice defending the independent rights of the people of Taiwan, and his assassination will have major reverberations around the world, specifically throughout southeast Asia.

No doubt Beijing is celebrating the assassination today, even while they retain their dragon grins behind the panda mask.  Losing Shinzo Abe is a very big deal in Japan akin to the United States losing JFK decades ago.

Earlier today, delivering remarks on new state healthcare initiatives during a visit to Cape Coral [full presser here], Florida Governor Ron DeSantis delivered remarks on the killing of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.  WATCH:

The Georgia Guidestones Destroyed


Armstrong Economics Blog/Conspiracy Re-Posted Jul 8, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Who is the mysterious R.C. Christian who erected the Georgia Guidestones in March 1980? These four nearly 20-feet monuments were mysteriously built decades ago before they were destroyed this week on July 6, 2022. After the initial bombing, the government destroyed the rest of the monument under the excuse of it being a structural hazard.

There is a theory that the structure was originally constructed during the Cold War to act as a guide to survivors of a nuclear disaster. Fears of impending nuclear war were widespread back then, and someone, likely a group, provided a guide for how to rebuild civilization. Let these be Guidestones to an Age of Reason,” are etched into the stone that contains writing in English, Russian, Mandarin, Arabic, Hebrew, Swahili, Spanish, and Hindi. Those responsible wanted to ensure that their message was read by whoever survived doomsday.

The 10 commands on the Guidestones seem eerily similar to the World Economic Forum’s current plans.

  1. Maintain humanity under 500,000,000 in perpetual balance with nature.
  2. Guide reproduction wisely — improving fitness and diversity.
  3. Unite humanity with a living new language.
  4. Rule passion — faith — tradition — and all things with tempered reason.
  5. Protect people and nations with fair laws and just courts.
  6. Let all nations rule internally resolving external disputes in a world court.
  7. Avoid petty laws and useless officials.
  8. Balance personal rights with social duties.
  9. Prize truth — beauty — love — seeking harmony with the infinite.
  10. Be not a cancer on the Earth — Leave room for nature — Leave room for nature.

(Image by Quentin Melson – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=118062388)

In the above documentary, there are numerous people who claim to have met the mysterious R.C. Christian, but this cannot be confirmed. The man did exist, however, and mysteriously disappeared shortly after the construction of the monument. He left behind a tablet explaining the astrological significance of where he placed the stones. The four giant granite tablets are aligned with the celestial poles, while the middle stone contains an eye-level hole that points to the North Star and aligns with sun solstices and equinoxes. There was a sundial calendar of sorts placed within the structure as the sun would shine through the slit at noon every day.

A lot of detail went into the placement and message placed on this structure that has remained an unsolved mystery for decades. There are deeper connections to this monument and ongoing globalist groups who also desire to unite a decreased population under one language in a one-world socialist government. Who destroyed the monument this week and why?