Monkeypox is Not the Next Pandemic


Armstrong Economics Blog/Disease Re-Posted Aug 12, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The Biden Administration declared a public health emergency over monkeypox. This is not an airborne virus, and it is fairly difficult to catch as skin-to-skin contact is the primary method of transmission. The woke media does not want this fact released, but the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has found that 99% of all cases were found in men, and 94% have had male sexual encounters.

Additionally, nearly 20% of gay men who fell ill admitted to having 10 or more partners in the three weeks before symptoms began. About 40% of those who fell ill reported having two to four partners, while 14% reported having five to nine partners. Around 38% admitted to participating in group sex.

This is more of a sexually transmitted disease and should be presented to the public as such. CDC guidance:

“Public health efforts should prioritize gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men, who are currently disproportionately affected, for prevention and testing, address equity, and minimize stigma, while maintaining vigilance for transmission in other populations.”

There is no need to stigmatize people for their sexual preferences or repeat problematic misinformation that spread during the 80s during the AIDS epidemic. However, there is no need to scare the general public into thinking that monkeypox is easily transmissible. If they care about health (they don’t), then they should be honest about the virus and educate the demographic mainly at risk.

Watch for Falling Anvils, The Washington Post Claims FBI Raid Was Looking for Super-Secret Nuclear Intel in Mar-a-Lago


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 11, 2022 | Sundance

They should have gone with the aliens angle.  I said earlier today after watching the frozen-faced, nervous teleprompter reading from AG Merrick Garland, that Main Justice and the FBI had completely embarrassed themselves and likely came up empty in their raid on Mar-a-Lago.

The reason is simple, when you put a tribe of rabid leftists together in a room long enough, they will collectively concoct the goofiest plans in an effort to advance their quests.  The DOJ and FBI lawfare tribe are no different.  The Washington Post is now claiming the FBI raid on Mar-a-Lago was connected to some “nuclear information” in Donald Trump’s possession.

As the theory is presented, Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un were speaking in coded language about rockets and missiles.  President Trump called Chairman Kim “little rocket man”, and said the USA had bigger missiles.

Contemplate that type of insufferably innocuous nonsense long enough and in desperation it evolves into a plan to claim a national security threat might exist.  Quick, grab Boris and Natasha and raid the estate…. but watch for dropping Acme anvils.

WASHINGTON – Classified documents relating to nuclear weapons were among the items FBI agents sought in a search of former president Donald Trump’s Florida residence on Monday, according to people familiar with the investigation.

Experts in classified information said the unusual search underscores deep concern among government officials about the types of information they thought could be located at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago Club and potentially in danger of falling into the wrong hands.

The people who described some of the material that agents were seeking spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss an ongoing investigation. They did not offer additional details about what type of information the agents were seeking, including whether it involved weapons belonging to the United States or some other nation.

[…] Material about nuclear weapons is especially sensitive and usually restricted to a small number of government officials, experts said. Publicizing details about U.S. weapons could provide an intelligence road map to adversaries seeking to build ways of countering those systems. And other countries might view exposing their nuclear secrets as a threat, experts said. (read more)

Yeah, yeah, that’s the ticket. Comrade Donald and Comrade Melania were building an atomic missile in the Mar-a-Lago basement in order to advance their insurrection efforts.

Good grief.  Can these Deep State stenographers even hear themselves as they type?

I am more convinced than ever they DOJ/FBI were on a fishing expedition, looking for something, anything, that could compromise Donald Trump legally.  They came up empty, and now the entire world is looking at the way the FBI acted.  The DOJ is stuck grasping for any justification -regardless of how silly it is- in order to extricate themselves from the mess they created.

It has to be something super serious in order to justify the extreme nature of the raid itself.   Probable cause likely came down to aliens or nuclear missile technology…  they chose the latter.

‘Quick Melania, before we go to New Jersey, put the nuclear missile plans in your sock drawer.’

[…] “If that is true, it would suggest that material residing unlawfully at Mar-a-Lago may have been classified at the highest classification level,” said David Laufman, the former chief of the Justice Department’s counterintelligence section, which investigates leaks of classified information. “If the FBI and the Department of Justice believed there were top secret materials still at Mar-a-Lago, that would lend itself to greater ‘hair-on-fire’ motivation to recover that material as quickly as possible.”

(WaPo Link)

Bidenflation Making Mexico Great Again, Retails Sales Up 30% in Mexico as U.S. Shoppers Cross Border to Save Money


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 11, 2022 | Sundance 

The price differential is remarkable.  In this report from NewsNation, they follow Americans who travel to Mexico for their essential purchases.  Not only is gasoline over a $1/gal cheaper, but everyday essential items are significantly lower.

Retailers in the video highlight an increase in sales of 20 to 30% from cross border shoppers. Biden’s economic plan is Making Mexico Great Again.  WATCH:

North Korea Asks to Join the War


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Aug 10, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The proxy war with Russia has strengthened the West’s enemies. North Korea is offering to send 100,000 soldiers – all volunteers – to fight alongside Russia. Despite being a small nation, North Korea boasts the fourth largest military in the world, with over 1.3 million active troops and 600,000 reservists.

North Korea is attempting to align closely with Russia and has even offered to help repair the Donbas region after the war. A spokesperson for the hermit kingdom announced full support for Russia in April. “We are sending our full support and showing solidarity to the justified struggle of the Russian people to protect the autonomy and security of the country and to defend national interests,” they stated.

In May, Russia blocked attempts by the UN and US to pass further sanctions on North Korea. In July, North Korea stated that they officially recognized the People’s Republic of Donetsk and the People’s Republic of Luhansk as Russian territories. Russia has responded favorably to North Korea’s vocal support.

“Highly qualified, hardworking, and ready to work in the most difficult conditions, [North] Korean builders will be an asset in the serious task of restoring social, infrastructure and industrial facilities [in the Donbas] destroyed by the retreating Ukrainian forces,” Russia’s ambassador to North Korea, Alexander Matsegora, said.

North Korea is a nuclear power with a military state. The tyrannical government indoctrinates children from a young age to hate the West. Kim Jong-Un can send cheap laborers to Russia at a moment’s notice, and he is certainly desperate for allies. This may entice China to step up its efforts as they have a monopoly on trade with their neighboring country and are increasingly growing frustrated with America after Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. As the cycle of war turns up, new players are joining the fight.

Second Quarter Productivity Drops Again, Companies Paying Workers More to Produce Less


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 9, 2022 | Sundance 

The previous first quarter productivity drop of 7.4% was the largest quarterly drop in 74 years.  Today the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports the second quarter productivity dropped another 4.6% [Data Here].

For July, companies are paying 5.7% higher wages and getting a 4.6% drop in output, resulting in a total unit labor cost increase of 10.8%.  That increase in final output cost will either result in higher prices or lower profits.

With weak consumer purchasing (low demand) already creating an inventory surplus, hence lower outputs, lower profit leads to cutbacks.  The largest company expenses are generally labor and energy costs. The more variable and controllable of those two expenses is labor.  You know what comes next.

(WSJ) – […] Rising productivity is the key to improving living standards; it allows companies to raise wages without raising prices and fueling inflation. Instead, businesses appear to be paying workers more to produce less. The higher unit labor costs suggest companies will either endure lower profits or pass on higher costs to consumers.

“The trend in productivity growth has worsened compared to prior to the pandemic, and the surge in unit labor costs makes the Fed’s challenge of getting inflation back down to its 2% target all the more challenging,” Wells Fargo economist Sarah House said in a research note.

The central bank has increased rates four times this year from near zero in March in an effort to raise borrowing costs, slow economic growth and bring inflation down.

The consecutive negative productivity readings are a reversal from earlier in the pandemic, when the economy was expanding rapidly and businesses appeared to be adopting new technology to cope with worker shortages and limits to face-to-face contact. (read more)

Meanwhile, “U.S. manufacturing output in June was down by 0.4% compared with March though it was still up by 3.6% compared with the same month a year earlier, estimates prepared by the Federal Reserve Board found. Three-month output growth was the weakest since early 2021, and confirms slackening momentum evident in other data on output, orders and jobs.” (Reuters)

This month’s inflation report (reflecting changes in July) will show a large decline in overall inflation. This will provide the White House with a false narrative of confidence that inflation has peaked.  However, food inflation (farm prices not yet realized) will combine with wage inflation (as noted above) sometime around October, and then we enter another round of rising prices.

The prices for durable goods have likely peaked.  If you are in the market for an expense item (appliance, furniture, etc) look for significant incentives to trigger in Sept/October; right around the same time when the layoffs start.  So, sit tight for a few more weeks.

However, the prices for highly consumable products will present a false plateau (Aug/Sept) until they go bananas again just before the Thanksgiving holiday season.

Prepare and time your affairs accordingly.

Civil Unrest in Panama Continues


Armstrong Economics Blog/Central America Re-Posted Aug 8, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The people of Panama have been protesting the obscene cost of living for weeks. President Laurentino Cortizo has promised to lower the cost of basic necessities such as food and energy, but the people are not satisfied. Teachers began protesting in July and went on an initial three-day strike. This act of defiance inspired other groups who also took to the streets to call for price reductions.

Inflation in Panama sits at 4.2% as of May, while the unemployment rate hovered around 10%. Fuel costs have soared nearly 50% since January of this year. The issue here is that despite the country’s economy growing, the benefits have not been passed on to the people in any way. Many highly-skilled professionals, such as doctors, left the country long ago for countries where they’re paid competitively and access to medical care has become increasingly difficult.

Protestors blocked the Pan-American highway, which is the main route for most of Panama’s food. Even the Catholic Church stepped in during June to mediate the battle between the people and government. The first round of discussions mediated by the Catholic Church resulted in the government freezing the cost of 72 products. Additionally, the government will now allocate 6% of GDP to education by 2024. The Inter-American Highway, connecting Panama to the rest of Central America, was cleared but the supply constraints and resulted in significant losses.

Panama’s economy grew 17.8% in 2021, and 13.6% in Q1 of 2022. There is no reason for Panamanians’ quality of life to decrease when their economy is in a surplus. The protests will continue as the people have realized that their corrupt government does in fact work for them

Sad Stephanopoulos Promotes Dick Cheney as Democrats Hope to Help Joe Biden


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 7, 2022 | sundance

George Stephanopoulos has a new hero not named Obama.  Skipping both the red and blue pills in favor of Xanax and whiskey, a visually verklempt Stephanopoulos uses Dick Cheney as the introduction to the 2022 midterm election victory map.  The last 3 seconds of this clip are funny as heck.

Pay no attention to the 67% of Americans who say things are getting even worse, and instead let’s cheer Dick Cheney and baby killing, after all – they are weirdly connected in a way.  Thus, George has figured the new DNC strategy.  Brilliant.

.

Sunday Talks, SF Fed Chair Sees Half of Inflation Driven by Excess Demand of Some Unknown Something


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 7, 2022 | sundance

The great pretending continues.  During a Sunday talk show appearance, San Francisco Fed Chair Mary Daley states, “what I see is supply and demand are just unbalanced. About 50% by my own staff’s estimates of the excess inflation we see is related to demand. The other 50% to supply.”  Note, she is not talking about energy.

Margaret Brennan, maintaining her position as the professional CBS narrative engineer, never thinks to ask: (a) where is this demand you speak of, and what exactly are they demanding? and/or (b) What is this 50% inflation on the supply side connected to?  Obviously, an actual probing of inflation wasn’t in the script. The great pretending continues.  [Transcript Here]

CTH has stated without reservation that August’s inflation report will show a significant –albeit temporary– drop in inflation as measured by the govt.  The drop in gasoline prices throughout July (created by a drop in demand) will allow the fiscal and monetary policy makers to falsely claim overall inflation peaked. However, after a brief respite the inflation now growing in the ground (massive increases in farm costs), will then launch into the food supply chain.  This delayed food inflation will overtake the energy inflation in the latter part of this year.  WATCH:

[Transcript] – MARGARET BRENNAN: We turn now to the state of the economy and the president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Mary Daly. Good morning to you.

FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO PRESIDENT MARY DALY: Good morning.

MARGARET BRENNAN: The San Francisco Fed said fiscal spending during the entirety of the pandemic, all the congressional funding contributed 3%- a 3% hike in inflation. Do you expect the congressional bill that’s about to pass to add to inflation as well?

DALY: Well, let’s remember that during the time that there was this fiscal relief during the pandemic, there was also monetary policy relief. And those were things necessary to get us through the pandemic. So that’s why that was such an important component in history, will be the judge, whether it was too much or too little. But right now, that’s where that was. And my staff have evaluated that. When I look forward, there are so many things going on in the economy right now, both domestically and globally. And we are struggling with high inflation. But the Fed is committed to bringing that down. And we’re looking at not only things that Congress passes, but also what happens across the entire world.

MARGARET BRENNAN: So do you think this bill will- will add to inflation? Has inflation peaked? Can you say that?

DALY: You know, I really can’t comment on pending legislation, and it’s really hard to tell because all the details haven’t been worked out yet and or the time frame in which those things will take place. So right now, I think the most important thing, Margaret, is that inflation is too high and the labor market is strong. The global economy is struggling with ongoing high inflation, and that’s what I’m focused on.

MARGARET BRENNAN: You are a labor economist. We had this surprisingly strong jobs number on Friday. Why was it so surprising? What was it that economists missed here? What was your takeaway?

DALY: You know, it’s super interesting. You know, it did surprise everyone who tries to figure out exactly what the number will be. And we were you know, a number of projections were well off. But, you know, frankly, if you’re out in the communities, if you’re you’re traveling anywhere, you’re you’re just going in your own community. I don’t think consumers are workers or businesses were that surprised. There’s help wanted signs all over the place. People are can find multiple jobs if they want them. Search times for jobs aren’t that long. So I think the labor market is continuing to deliver. It just tells me that people want to work and that people want to hire. But the universal truth is that inflation’s too high.

MARGARET BRENNAN: But does it still or does it indicate that recession is not where we are or where we’re going?

DALY: If you’re out in the economy, you don’t feel like you’re in a recession. That’s the bottom line. The most important risk out there is inflation. And I think the job market just confirms that.

MARGARET BRENNAN: Okay. We’re going to take a break and come right back with you. Mary Daly, stay with us. We have more questions.

*COMMERCIAL BREAK*

MARGARET BRENNAN: Welcome back to Face the Nation. We continue our conversation now with the head of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Mary Daly. In that jobs number on Friday, we also saw that wages rose, but they’re not rising as quickly as inflation is. How concerned are you that that shows inflation is really becoming embedded in the economy in a way that is really going to force sure your colleagues at the Fed to continue to have to hike rates.

DALY: You know, I don’t see inflation is embedded in the economy, the kinds of things that we would worry about just not being able to correct easily. What I see is supply and demand are just unbalanced. About 50% by my own staff’s estimates of the excess inflation we see is related to demand. The other 50% to supply. The Fed is really well positioned to bring demand down, and we already see the cooling forming in the housing market and investment. So I do see signs that the economy is cooling. It just is going to take some time for the interest rate adjustments we’ve made to work their way through. And we are far from done yet. That’s the the promise to the American people. We are far from done. We’re committed to bringing inflation down and we’ll continue to work until that job is fully done.

MARGARET BRENNAN: So it would still be appropriate to raise rates in September by half a percent?

DALY: Absolutely. And we need to be data dependent. It could. We need to leave our minds open. We have two more inflation reports coming out, another jobs report. We continue to collect all the information from the context we talk to you to see how this is working its way through the economy. But you mentioned, you know, wage growth a little bit above 5% inflation. Last print at 9.1%. Americans are losing ground every day. So the focus has to be on bringing inflation down.

MARGARET BRENNAN: One of the things the Fed can’t control is geopolitical risk. How concerned are you about what is happening in the Taiwan Strait right now?

DALY: Well, there’s so much going on globally, and I think that’s really something that we need to think about. It’s just getting through COVID, making sure the new variants don’t derail economic activity. We have central banks across the globe raising interest rates to try to bridle their own inflation. And we have ongoing developments that take place geopolitically or just more generally among countries and all of those things. The war in Ukraine, all of those things create headwinds, if you will, for the US economy and we’re going to have to lean against those headwinds for growth while we bridle inflation.

MARGARET BRENNAN: The Fed has its work cut out and I know we’ll be talking again. Thank you very much, Mary Daly. (LINK)

Candidate Joe Kent Pulls to Within 257 Votes in Washington State, With 30,000 Ballots Remaining to Be Counted


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 5, 2022 | Sundance

As each batch of ballots is counted in Washington State’s 3rd congressional district, MAGA candidate Joe Kent has gained significant ground.

Republican Joe Kent is now within striking distance of primarying Jaime Herrera Beutler, with approximately 30,000 ballots remaining to be counted.

[New York Times Link]

Jamie Herrera Beutler, who voted to impeach President Trump and is one of the MAGA targets for 2022, now has 41,603 votes.  Trump-endorsed Joe Kent has moved from a several thousand vote deficit, into the latest result of 41,346 votes.  The difference is now down to 257 votes.

Washington State has that jungle primary voting system where the top two candidate’s face-off in the general election. According to Kent on Twitter, there are 30,000 ballots left to be counted.  Prayers up!!  Joe Kent might just pull off this victory.

If the next batch of 30,000 ballots, carries the same ratio as today’s batch of 22,000 ballots, Joe Kent will take the lead.

McDonalds Dumps Trial of Plant Meat Because Customers Would Not Purchase – Next up, Bug Meat


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 5, 2022 | Sundance

McDonalds has announced they are dropping their program testing plant-based meats because people didn’t like it.

As noted by the Washington Times, “other trials at Panda Express and Yum! Brands (KFC, Taco Bell, and Pizza Hut) have also ended without a subsequent product launch. Beyond Meat products at Dunkin’, Hardee’s, and A&W have been discontinued after launching.”

Apparently, American consumers do not want to eat fake meat; at least not fake meat made from plants.

Next up….  Bug meat.

…”The menus will feature items such as cricket tacos or a Thai larb salad and recipes that use an innovative cricket meat-alternative which packs about 30 per cent protein – and requires around 1800x less Greenhouse gas to produce than beef.”  (LINK)