Posted originally on the conservative tree house on December 15, 2021 | Sundance | 112 Comments
To me, this is just jaw-dropping. The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made statements today akin to saying the emperor is wearing a beautiful coat. I can share examples, but to really encapsulate the issues, it’s actually easier to start by sharing a chart he presented when discussing inflation.
Do you notice anything missing in this chart? Look at it carefully.
If you look at it and say: “hey, where’s the actual 2021 data he is talking about“, give yourself a cookie.
The guy is talking about the issue of 2021 inflation and expressing his empathy that inflation is running “far ahead” of the federal reserve projections. Yet, the graphic Powell uses doesn’t even show the 2021 rate of inflation that he is expressing his concern about.
Why wouldn’t the graphic show the rate of inflation for 2021? Well, take one look at what the graph would look like, and you realize immediately why he would not want to put it in front of people.
This is in essence what the graphic would look like if Powell included the 2021 inflation he is concerned about:
The 6.8% inflation rate is just about where the dot in the “j” of the word projection would be located. That’s where we are currently.
Now, do you really think that scale of inflation is going to drop in a dramatic inverted V formation to where the Fed projects it will end up next year (the little red line in the thing that looks like a battery)? Pro Tip: It won’t.
The chairman even said he anticipates “strong inflation throughout next year” into 2023.
Worse still, are his remarks leading into the segment where he talks about inflation:
(1) Powell claims the Fed “can see no signs of weakening consumer demand“. Who in the Sam-hell is he talking to, and how can they not see a drop in consumer demand?
(2) Perhaps worse, the Fed Chairman says almost nothing about the largest ever drop in productivity last quarter (-5%), and instead is only slightly worried that the drop in productivity is larger than the increase in wages (+3%). Whiskey – Tango – Foxtrot. Does this guy not have anyone on Main Street who talks to him? If I’m an employer paying three percent more and generating five percent less, what do you think I’m about to do?
Watch his remarks from 03:23 to 05:13 of the video below (prompted), and you will see what I mean:
The key takeaway is this….
…. Take care of your family, this is only going to get worse.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on December 15, 2021 | Sundance | 154 Comments
Apparently living amid a city that is fraught with crime is comfortable for a lot of people in San Francisco, at least according to one of the most leftist Mayors in the nation. You know things are bad when the Mayor of San Francisco, who ran on a platform to remove cops from the streets, starts shouting about the “bull**it that has destroyed the city”, and proclaiming that rampant lawlessness needs to stop.
San Francisco Mayor London Breed delivered a statement yesterday that is the exact opposition of her social program message from the past few years. Apparently, the rise in random gangs of looters destroying the city and organized retail theft has become problematic for the politicians who hold power over the city.
Quite a remarkable shift in position, however, the transparency of motive is clear. Breed’s faux anger and conveniently new frustration over the crime surge in the city were on full display at her noon news conference where she changed the rules of the safari park. WATCH:
Democrats are worried about how their anti-police position has brought the criminal chickens home to roost. Politically, Democrats -writ large- are trying to distance themselves from the crime their policies have created. National polls show voters are correctly attributing the rise in crime to Democrats. Thus, they need to change direction quickly.
SAN FRANCISCO – After months of viral videos showing deteriorating conditions on the streets of San Francisco, including smash-and-grab robberies and open-air drug use, the city’s mayor has moved to implement a new public safety approach to curb criminal behavior. Her move could signal a recognition by the Democratic establishment that crime may prove a potent issue in upcoming elections.
Speaking at City Hall on Tuesday, San Francisco Mayor London Breed lamented “all the bullshit that has destroyed our city,” including thefts at high-end stores like Louis Vuitton, rampant vehicle break-ins and a seeming flood of the potent drug fentanyl. All of it has been captured on video, making for regular Fox News segments and rising consternation among Democrats who see crime as a potential weakness in next year’s midterm elections. (read more)
That last bullet point is a little funny, no?…
I mean what good were the city CCTV cameras if the police were not allowed to use them?
Were the cameras installed so the city could just randomly document criminals running amok for posterity?
Posted originally on the conservative tree house December 15, 2021 | Sundance | 89 Comments
WILDWOOD, Fla. – Today, Governor Ron DeSantis announced the Stop the Wrongs to Our Kids and Employees (W.O.K.E.) Act, a legislative proposal that will give businesses, employees, children and families tools to fight back against woke indoctrination.
The Stop W.O.K.E. Act will be the strongest legislation of its kind in the nation and will take on both corporate wokeness and Critical Race Theory. Today’s proposal builds on actions Governor DeSantis has already taken to ban Critical Race Theory and the New York Times’ 1619 project in Florida’s schools. For more information about the Stop W.O.K.E. Act, click here.
“In Florida we are taking a stand against the state-sanctioned racism that is critical race theory,” said Governor Ron DeSantis. “We won’t allow Florida tax dollars to be spent teaching kids to hate our country or to hate each other. We also have a responsibility to ensure that parents have the means to vindicate their rights when it comes to enforcing state standards. Finally, we must protect Florida workers against the hostile work environment that is created when large corporations force their employees to endure CRT-inspired ‘training’ and indoctrination.” (read more)
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on December 15, 2021 | Sundance | 77 Comments
The Commerce Department November retail sales data was release today [DATA HERE] – [DETAIL pdf HERE]. The top line issue is a shocking drop in retail sales for November in key categories that align with previous discussion of inflation spending priorities for all U.S. consumers.
Before getting to the data, one point is critical to remember. The commerce department sales figures are based on dollars spent. This point is important, because the items being purchased have inflation within them. When prices are higher due to inflation, sales figures should be higher due to higher prices. Ex. If there is an 8% increase in retail price, but only a 4% increase in retail sales, that means less stuff is being sold. [Less units sold at a higher price gives the illusion of an increase in sales.]
Despite the start of the traditional holiday sales and shopping period, the total sales growth in November was 0.3% over October [Column A]. Factoring in inflation during the same month to month comparison at 0.9%, you can tell that overall in November there was a drop in units sold across the total of retail sales outlets.
A drop in sales at a time when holiday shopping should be taking place is concerning. However, the sales reality aligns with the employment data last week showing a drop of 20,000 workers in the retail sector for November. Put them together, and the picture shows retailers did not need employees, because consumers are not spending.
If we look deeper into the November sales figures, we can see that a contraction in discretionary spending is the primary issue. Electronics (-4.6%), Department Stores (-5.4%) and even online sales at ZERO. We can also see a direct correlation in comparative inflation impact within the sales data for November 2021 when compared to November 2020 [Column B].
You will note that column B is an almost identical data set to the rate of inflation in those categories. Example: the November 2021 sales data is showing an increase in gasoline station sales of 52.3% over November 2020. That’s because gas prices have gone up 58.1% over the same time period. The increase in sales at gas stations is because inflation is driving sales. [Remember, these comparisons are in dollars being spent.]
A comparison to 2020 for sales dollars in 2021 is useless when you look at the rate of inflation in those categories.
However, to see electronics, department stores, general merchandise and even online sales (Nonstore retailers) showing declines in sales over October, tells us that consumer spending is being squeezed and contracting.
In the electronic sector, sales dropped 4.6 percent versus October. However, the issue is larger. With inflation within the electronics sector around 8 percent (BLS Table-2), a contraction in overall sales of items that cost more means a lot less electronic units are being sold.
(Bloomberg) “U.S. retail sales rose by less than forecast in November, suggesting that consumers are tempering purchases against a backdrop of the fastest inflation in decades” (more)
Similarly, vehicles overall (new and used) are 20% higher in price this year {BLS DATA} and only achieved a net 13% increase in consumer sales for Nov 2021 -vs- Nov 2020. Far fewer vehicle units are selling.
This data should not be surprising to anyone who has been paying attention. Consumers overall, specifically the middle class and working class, are being squeezed hard by food, fuel, housing and energy inflation, and are cutting back their spending this Christmas. The media are blaming the soft sales on COVID and supply chains again, but that’s not really the issue.
WASHINGTON, Dec 15 (Reuters) – U.S. retail sales increased less than expected in November, likely payback after surging in the prior month as Americans started their holiday shopping early to avoid empty shelves.
[…] The modest retail sales gain did not change views that the economy was regaining steam after a slowdown in the third quarter that was triggered by the COVID-19 Delta variant and rampant shortages.
[…] Retail sales rose 0.3% last month after surging 1.8% in October. Sales have now risen for four straight months. They increased 18.2% year-on-year in November. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales rising 0.8%. Estimates ranged from as low as being unchanged to as high as a 1.5% increase.
[…] The moderation in retail sales, which are mostly goods, was in part due to shortages and higher prices. Receipts at auto dealerships dipped 0.1% after accelerating 1.7% in October. Automobiles remain scarce because of a global semiconductor shortage. Sales at electronics and appliance stores fell 4.6%.
But sales at service stations increased 1.7%, lifted by higher gasoline prices. Receipts at food and beverage stores rose 1.3%, also reflecting rising inflation.
“Food and gas are forcing hard choices for consumers in other areas this holiday season,” said Tim Quinlan, a senior economist at Wells Fargo in Charlotte, North Carolina. “Consumers are no longer the price-takers they were when they were flush with cash from stimulus checks.” (read more)
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on December 15, 2021 | Sundance | 573 Comments
At first blush, this story seemed too bizarre to be true; alas it is not. [h/t Gateway Pundit] As noted by Jim Hoft at Gateway Pundit, a few weeks ago the Salvation Army stepped into the social justice arena and began promoting the premise of white guilt.
According to an “internal study guide” from the charitable organization intended to “foster positive conversations and grace-filled reflection among Salvationists“, the white members and donors to the Salvation Army were requested to reflect on their inherent racism. According to the Salvation Army’s “International Social Justice Commission“, this was presumably of some charitable value.
Obviously, this request stirred up some controversy. In an era where the toxic issues around Critical Race Theory being taught in schools has been in the headlines, there is likely not a worse time for a charitable group to join the social justice cause and push CRT toward the aggregate public.
Many people were surprised by the decision of the Salvation Army to push the divisive issue of racism in what appeared to be an effort by the organization to enter the orbit of wokeism.
Quite frankly, I cannot reference a more ridiculous organizational decision than this example in recent memory. However, that said, while the original decision was nuts, the effort to clean up the mess they created for themselves is exponentially more nuts. Amid the backlash, the Salvation Army released the following statement:
The first thought of ‘what were they thinking‘, becomes compounded by realizing the Salvation Army is a partner with something called the “International Social Justice Commission.” I mean, seriously, what the heck is this all about?
Mistake one might be taking the intent of a historic organization away from charitable giving and into the toxic and divisive world of racial politics. Mistake number two is doubling down on the decision to engage with race in some ill-fated effort to establish politically correct bona fides.
If you wanted to completely destroy the guiding mission of a charity, the Salvation Army is showing everyone exactly how to do it.
I’m not sure what qualifications or prisms others use, but myself, as a donor, I want to see my money used by a charity in such a way as to care for people who are in the most need – and that has absolutely nothing to do with race or any other qualification. I am literally stunned by the intent of the Salvation Army in this mess, and their cleanup effort is even worse.
This is one of the biggest disappointments of the year, and yet, again shows that organizations can lose their entire purpose by following leadership making stupid decisions.
Jim Hoft follows up the issue with a highlight showing the Salvation Army is in a crisis now, because people are not giving to the charity at the time of year when the Christmas Season Salvation Army kettles usually raise a lot of money.
(Fox-13) […] Not only is the nonprofit organization short on donations, they also are in desperate need of bell ringers to staff the red kettles seen at businesses around the country. (read more)
Well, DUH! What exactly did The Salvation Army expect to happen?
Armstrong Economics Blog/Inflation Re-Posted Dec 15, 2021 by Martin Armstrong
The US Producer Price Index (PPI) for November reached an 11-year high, according to the Labor Department. The PPI for final demand rose 0.8% in November, the index for final demand services increased 0.7%, and prices for final demand goods moved up 1.2%. Alarmingly, the final demand PPI soared 9.6% for the 12 months ending in November, marking the fastest 12-month advance since November 2020 when that data was first collected. Core PPI advanced 6.9%, marking the largest spike since August 2014. As a reminder, this measures the average price movement established by domestic producers for goods and services sold both domestically and internationally.
Companies are facing higher costs, and that cost is passed on to the consumer. As a result, the Consumer Price Index rose 0.8% in November, marking a 6.8% increase in inflation on an annual basis. The Labor Department noted that this was the fastest pace of inflation since June 1982.
These levels are unsustainable. The Fed’s 2% inflation target seems laughable considering prices in every area continuously rise with no end in sight. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has stated that the central bank would step in with a more aggressive policy if they saw runaway inflation. How high do prices need to rise for the central bank to take action?
The hatred toward the unvaccinated population has become so alarming that the risk of violence is imminent. Heartbreakingly, the Make-A-Wish Foundation has refused a 4-year-old child his dying wish because he is not vaccinated. Rocco, a terminally ill boy from Staten Island, New York, wanted to meet Mickey Mouse in Disney World, as many kids do.
Not to worry – Rocco will have a chance to meet Mickey and friends. Wigs and Wishes, a more ethical non-profit organization, will pay for Rocco and his family to visit Disney World in Orlando, Florida.
The Make-A-Wish Foundation quickly retracted its policy to deny end of life wishes to unvaccinated children. However, the company’s “vaccine policy” still prevents unvaccinated children from large gatherings or air travel. “Make-A-Wish’s recent decision regarding how to begin to lift some restrictions for wishes involving air travel and large gatherings was made to protect the health of children with critical illnesses in response to the COVID-19 pandemic […] There are many other wish options for children who do not currently meet the requirements for air travel and events involving large gatherings,” the company stated.
This child is terminally ill, under 5, and likely cannot risk any adverse reactions from the vaccine. This is not about preventing COVID from spreading but rather another attempt to punish those who chose not to be vaccinated.
These are experimental vaccines that have NEVER before been approved, nor tested on such a wide scale of human society. Fauci admits that they used vaccines just a few years ago that made children more likely to get the disease. Our problem is that the politicians have used this as part of the agenda to force Schwab’s Great Reset. I have spoken to others in the documentary film industry who also had information in advance that a “virus was coming.”
With the track record of vaccines, it takes 12 years normally to get approval from the FDA – not months or weeks. Do not experiment with your children. I have four grandchildren who got COVID as did their parents. The children had very mild symptoms compared to their parents who were sick for about 10 days. When they met others who were vaccinated and still got sick, they did not get sick thanks to their natural immunity.
Any doctor who tells you the political line, find another for they have surrendered all medical training for politics and peer pressure. This is not high school. CAUTION should be the wise decision of a parent. We do not know if these vaccines will still be considered safe 2 years from now. Independent analysis is already warning that these vaccines are not safe for humans. To think that politicians are mandating them with huge penalties without any understanding of the long-term impact is disgraceful and may prove to be a crime against humanity.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on December 14, 2021 | Sundance | 204 Comments
The intemperate Wyoming Representative Liz Cheney is on a hate-filled kamikaze mission to attack the base of the political party she abhors. {Direct Rumble Link Here}
Previously, Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski set the low bar for contempt against the Tea Party movement, however, this week Liz Cheney says ‘hold my beer’ and goes all in against the MAGA base. Ugly is as ugly does – inside and outside.
(WaPo) – Rep. Liz Cheney’s disclosures of intriguing Jan. 6 text messages between Mark Meadows and both Donald Trump Jr. and Fox News personalities are the big news in the committee’s investigation right now. But don’t lose sight of what Cheney said immediately after she read those texts aloud.” (more)
Deep State alum Ms. Liz Cheney is desperately trying to use her position on the ridiculous January 6th committee to gain position inside the DC system. As a person with no redeeming qualities, the DC swamp is about the only place where her unlikable lawfare skills still have some marketing viability.
As the Washington Post notes, Cheney is desperate to attach some element of criminal lawbreaking to President Trump. Cheney was pointing to a specific criminal statute — a felony, 18 U.S. Code § 1512 — that she suggests President Donald Trump violated.
Cheney’s comment matches the language of the statute. It states, “Whoever corruptly … obstructs, influences, or impedes any official proceeding, or attempts to do so, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than 20 years, or both.” That law defines an “official proceeding” as including “a proceeding before the Congress.”
Is there a more self-centered, arrogant, smug and narcissistic member of the current Republican Party? I cannot think of one.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on December 14, 2021 | Sundance | 226 Comments
Reuters is reporting on an interesting dynamic within the vaccine mandate as it pertains to Amtrak. Reading between the lines tells us something very specific about this vaccine mandate that we have discussed here, and it’s starting to show.
The article itself points to how Amtrak is suspending their vaccine mandate as a result of the federal courts blocking enforcement of any mandate pending litigation. From their perspective as a federal contractor, Amtrak is now in a position to cease the vaccine requirement until the legal issues are resolved. However, there’s an element touched upon that needs to be considered.
First the article (the emphasis is mine):
WASHINGTON, Dec 14 (Reuters) – U.S. passenger railroad Amtrak said on Tuesday it will temporarily suspend a vaccine mandate for employees and now no longerexpects to be forced to cut some service in January. In a memo seen by Reuters, Amtrak Chief Executive Bill Flynn said the railroad would allow employees who were not vaccinated to get tested.
Currently, fewer than 500 active Amtrak employees are not in compliance. Last week, the railroad told Congress it anticipated “proactively needing to temporarily reduce some train frequencies across our network” because of the mandate.
Flynn said 95.7% of Amtrak’s 17,000 employees are either fully vaccinated or have an accommodation — and including employees with one dose 97.3% of employees are in compliance.
Amtrak cited a U.S. district court decision that halted the enforcement of President Joe Biden’s executive order mandating vaccines for federal contractors by January. “This caused the company to reevaluate our policy and to address the uncertainty about the federal requirements that apply to Amtrak,” the memo said. (read more)
Let’s cut through some politically correct corporate speech and media spin, and instead focus on a few key aspects:
First, the cause of the operational change, a frequency change in Amtrak service, was specifically admitted to be due to the vaccine mandate. This is EXACTLY the opposite of the White House claim earlier today (see below). The vaccine mandate was the cause of the operational change. Amtrak admits this – the White House refutes this.
Second, a reduction of 500 non-vaccinated people amid a company payroll exceeding 17,000, to the extent that the reduction actually changes the operational service of the company, tells us the unvaccinated people were specifically critical to the service the company provides.
This second point gets to the heart of a thesis we have proposed before. It’s not an issue of how many people, or what percentage, quit over a vaccine requirement. It’s a more specific issue of WHO those people are and what they do.
In any organization, there are people critical to the operation and people not so critical.
In a cumbersome top-heavy organization, that relies upon government largess and subsidy to operate, employment is bloated beyond what is efficient. I have long stated that the key group of most productive people, the very critical group for efficient operation, are a small subset of the total company employment.
I would bet, and it is essentially admitted by the statement from Amtrak, that a much higher percentage of the critical workers are refusing the vaccine than exist in the total employment ranks. The most productive and critical employees within any organization are independent minded, dependable and capable of a much larger influence than the average person. It is inside that core group of highly critical employees where effects from a vaccine mandate refusal makes the biggest impact.
As a result, the issue for any mandate is not the percentage of compliance overall, but rather how those very critical employees respond to the mandate.
There can be a specific skillset or duty needed in an organization, even a massive organization, that is only being done by a handful of specifically skilled people. If those people stop working, the effect on the entire organization is far beyond scale. In some instances, even in large organizations, that handful of people can shut down the entire operation if they do not perform their job(s).
500 out of 17,000 is only 3%,… yet that 3% were obviously critical enough to the operation of Amtrak in such a scale as the organization was planning to modify it’s entire operation due to their absence. This fact points as evidence to the theory that the most critical blue-collar people inside every organization carry a tremendous amount of clout when it comes to this vaccine mandate.
It’s not a matter of how many refuse the mandate, it’s an issue of who they are.
The blue-collar effort to bolster the resistance by these brothers and sisters in freedom, does not have to be too massive to have an impact. Remember, almost all of the leftists and elite-minded communists, who now operate as Democrats, have no capacity for self-sufficiency. If the working class stops picking up their trash, stops mowing their lawns, shopping for them, doing their cleaning and essentially facilitating their lives, this entire group of people cannot function.
If the always dependable shift-worker who never misses a day of work; the person who is always dutiful, diligent, trustworthy and can solve problems independently; the person who goes the extra mile and is proactive in planning their responsibilities, does not show up with the keys to be the switch operator, well, then the switch doesn’t get operated. And, that person is very hard to replace.
Remember, the part where Amtrak said the change in service schedules was due to the vaccine? Well, here’s the White House denying the change in Amtrak services was caused by the vaccine. WATCH:
From a commonsense and logistical perspective, regardless of the federal outlook, there’s no way they can pull it off. We are the quiet, and according to those who look down their noses – the “invisible” unwashed masses. However, when it comes to keeping the gears turning, we are the majority.
We keep their shit working and just want to be left alone. The system will not function if tens-of-millions of American workers stand united against the vaccine mandate. It really is that simple.
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