Tag Archives: 15 minute cities

Nov 4 2023

Jobs, Wages and Official Labor Reports Continue Showing Major Disconnects from Reality on Main Street


Posted originally on the CTH on November 3, 2023 | Sundance 

I have not written as much about the economic analysis coming from the official institutions of government because, well, quite frankly, none of it has made sense for several months.  In this era of great pretending, I am reminded of the official catchphrase which began in 2021, “managing the transition.”

When you contemplate that “managing the transition” can also equate to controlling public opinion, and when you overlap the dynamic of large U.S. institutions manipulating information in order to control that opinion, then suddenly the trust in the data evaporates.   When the reality of the economic situation you can measure, gauge, and sense on Main Street is increasingly detached from the government data about what’s happening on Main Street, things get weird.

EXAMPLE TODAY – Bureau of Labor and Statistics: “Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 150,000 in October, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.9 percent.” That’s the topline as announced.

Then you drop to the adjustments on the same report: “The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised down by 62,000, from +227,000 to +165,000, and the change for September was revised down by 39,000, from +336,000 to +297,000. With these revisions, employment in August and September combined is 101,000 lower than previously reported.”

September and October are generally significant upticks in labor, as the process for holiday preparation (shipping, transport, etc.) are underway.  However, that historic pattern is no longer applicable.  We see consumer trends in a downward direction, general uneasiness of the economic situation is relayed by businesses and consumers who are the key to reality, and yet the official reporting reflects something entirely different.  Thus, you must ask yourself if this is part of the aforementioned “managing the transition.”

Additionally, staying with the bigger (non-pretending) picture, the U.S. government intentionally imports 7.5 million illegal aliens.  Where are they in the data of employment conditions?   Is there a metric that can evaluate the impact of a non-skilled labor influx that takes place simultaneous to a negative economic reality of inflation and diminished wages felt by those traditionally measured.

When you look carefully at the data provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the Dept of Labor (DoL) and the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS), what you come away with is the data-driven impression of something that you cannot actually see in the reality of the economic world around you.  Quite simply, none of it makes sense.

If you begin talking about the disconnect, you enter a sphere of sounding like a conspiracy theorist.   Would the official institutions of economic analysis actually manipulate data as an outcome of the larger goal to “manage the transition”?  For me the answer is an emphatic, yes.   However, how do you quantify that disconnect when the people with a vested interest in hiding any conflict are the same people who control the release of the data?

It is a reality that 75% of the American people feel their economic situation has worsened and continues to be worse.  Many people are increasingly incapable of staying ahead of increases in cost of living.  Govt institutions say inflation has come under control, yet the prices continue skyrocketing and everyone can feel it.  Financial insecurity is the new normal amid a growing population, while the managers of the transition say, ‘all is well.’

The only thing that brings a person back from the world of crazy speak, is a review of actual ground reports on Main Street from people who are living their daily lives and trying to cope with the costs of maintaining that standard.  Almost everyone expresses having more difficulty keeping their financial head above water.  Yet the data released by government paints a different picture.   The distance between reality and ‘official data’ has never been wider than it is today.

Fewer goods are being manufactured.  Fewer goods are being shipped.  Fewer sales are taking place.   In a naturally contracting cycle this would mean less jobs.  However, the data shows job growth.

♦Health care added 58,000 jobs in October, in line with the average monthly gain of 53,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, employment continued to trend up in ambulatory health care services (+32,000), hospitals (+18,000), and nursing and residential care facilities (+8,000).
♦Employment in government increased by 51,000 in October and has returned to its pre-pandemic February 2020 level. Monthly job growth in government had averaged 50,000 in the prior 12 months. In October, employment continued to trend up in local government (+38,000).
♦Social assistance added 19,000 jobs in October, compared with the average monthly gain of 23,000 over the prior 12 months.
♦In October, construction employment continued to trend up (+23,000), about in line with the average monthly gain of 18,000 over the prior 12 months. Employment continued to trend up over the month in specialty trade contractors (+14,000) and construction of buildings (+6,000).
♦Employment in manufacturing decreased by 35,000 in October, reflecting a decline of 33,000 in motor vehicles and parts that was largely due to strike activity.
♦In October, employment in leisure and hospitality changed little (+19,000). The industry had added an average of 52,000 jobs per month over the prior 12 months.
♦Employment in professional and business services was little changed in October (+15,000) and has shown little net change since May. Employment in temporary help services changed little over the month (+7,000) but is 229,000 below its peak in March 2022.
♦In October, employment in transportation and warehousing was little changed (-12,000) and has shown little net change over the year. Over the month, warehousing and storage lost 11,000 jobs, while air transportation added 4,000 jobs.
♦Information employment changed little in October (-9,000). Employment in motion picture and sound recording continued to trend down (-5,000); the industry has lost 44,000 jobs since May, at least partially reflecting the impact of an ongoing labor dispute.

DATA

What do you see happening in/around your area?   How are the employment conditions nearest you?

Oct 30 2023

Sunday Talks, New Speaker Mike Johnson Discusses Israel Support Bill and Looming Budget Deadline


Posted originally on the CTH on October 29, 2023 

Within the budget process there are two different facets. Congress is charged by the Constitution with making decisions about how to spend public money. Those spending decisions are split into two parts: authorization and appropriations.  In the recent political era the “authorization” process has essentially been nulled; no one ever asks if the program (Ukraine, Israel, FBI, etc.) should be funded. 

“Authorization” is done by Congress via legislation that “can establish, continue, or modify an agency, program, or activity for a fixed or indefinite period of time,” per the Congressional Research Service. In other words, authorization is Congress saying that money can be spent on a given item — not that it necessarily will be spent on that item.

“Appropriations” are done by Congress via legislation that authorizes agencies to make payments from the federal Treasury (i.e. it allows them to spend the money that had previously been authorized). Appropriations bills are ordinarily passed each year, but in recent years it has been common for Congress to fund the government “on autopilot” via continuing resolutions that simply allow agencies to continue spending the same amount of money they were spending under the previous funding bill.

Matt Gaetz has been trying to change this dynamic because the external recipients of the appropriation spending, the lobbyists, are the ones driving the continuation of the CR approach. The lobbyists pay congress via campaign donations. Those donations come from congressional appropriation. The CR process maintains the largesse.

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Oct 27 2023

Business Deportations


Armstrong Economics Blog/World Trade Re-Posted Oct 27, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The world will become a more hostile place in the months ahead as we move toward 2024. Governments have identified their enemies that have embedded themselves within Western society. First, governments will ask businesses owned by unfriendly nations to leave, and next, they will target individuals.

Syngenta has owned 160 acres of farmland in Arkansas for three decades. Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders raised concerns over the company’s ties to China and the CCP. “Seeds are technology. Chinese-owned state corporations filter that technology back to their homeland, stealing American research and telling our enemies to target American farms,” Huckabee explained. The company is now being forced to leave America due to fears of national security. Additionally, they must pay a $280,000 fine for failing to disclose foreign ownership.

The state is providing Syngenta with a 30-day evacuation notice before they attempt to confiscate their land. A spokesperson for the company stated that they have been in operation since 1988 with no issue. “Syngenta’s work in the US — including in Arkansas — continues to benefit American farmers, strengthens American agriculture and makes the US a more innovative and competitive participant in the global agricultural marketplace,” the spokesman said, calling the move “shortsighted.”

However, the government knew this was a Chinese-run business years ago, as the US Department of Defense compiled a watchlist of companies connected to China in 2017. The growing fear of global warfare has gifted government the power to deport businesses on short notice. Slowly but surely, these companies will be asked to leave the US.

As a reminder, China is America’s largest trading partner. China is not currently at war with America. The government is opening Pandora’s box as this will lead to an exodus of foreign-run businesses and China will retaliate. We remember the ongoing trade war with China during the Trump administration with sanctions matched with sanctions. The globalists scream “Inclusivity!” left and right but plan on removing businesses simply because they’re connected to a foreign nation deemed unfriendly without a thorough investigation.

There are already discussions of deporting individuals for their religious and/or political beliefs. This will not be limited to the US. France’s Macron is attempting to deport those with “extremist beliefs.” Other countries will follow, especially with violently charged protests growing throughout Western nations that opened the doors to countless refugees since 2015 when Syrians were fleeing. The issue here is that the government has the sole discretion to decide who can stay and who must leave. If only those in charge would use history, recent history, as an example.

Oct 26 2023

Mercantilism v Consumerism – China’s Direction


Armstrong Economics Blog/World Trade Re-Posted Oct 26, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Mercantilism is the economic theory that trade generates wealth and is stimulated by the accumulation of profitable balances, which a government should encourage by means of protectionism, according to the Oxford Dictionary. We see nations like Germany rely on this model as they produce various products to export through trade. German manufacturing has provided the nation with Europe’s strongest economy, but this is not the model China is following to become America’s successor as the financial capital of the world.

Italy may have a lower GDP than Germany, but the average Italian has a higher net worth than the average German. The average Italian has a household net of $295,020. In contrast, the average German household is worth $304,317. Yet Italy has half the GDP of Germany at 2.108 trillion compared to 4.26 trillion. A few short years ago, the average Italian or Spaniard had a higher net than the average German despite Germany having the strongest economy in the continent.

Germany has clung to inflationary fears in the aftermath of the hyperinflation that arose post-World War II. The government has kept taxes high as a result. What made America great was consumerism – people lined up to sell products to Americans. Germany, on the other hand, focuses on producing products to sell to someone else.

China understands what Germany does not. China is moving in the direction of the US to create a consumer-based economy. It will take time, but in 15-20 years, nations will line up to sell to the Chinese.

Oct 18 2023

Why Was the 1987 Crash Important Even for Today


Armstrong Economics Blog/Training Tools Re-Posted Oct 18, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: I watched a pretend analyst who claimed the 1987 Crash was nothing. It is amazing how these people claim to be analysts yet do not understand the first thing about what took place behind the chart. I was there at your WEC in Princeton the weekend of the crash. I don’t remember if it was videoed. If so, you should post that.

Dan

See you in Orlando.

REPLY: Your statement is a sad epitaph on analysis these days. The “pretend analyst” is a Fed watcher who never looks beyond the shore. There is nothing you can do with these people. If they cannot look beyond a domestic economy, they are not analysts – plain & simple. Because I warned them back in 1985 that they would create a crash within 2 years by manipulating the dollar down 40%, when the Crash Came in 1987, that is when they were forced to call me.

When they began to realize that lowering the dollar by 40% also created a bear market in US assets for foreign investors, including US debt, they held the Louve Accord.  Yet, look closely at the chart. The dollar had already bun its decline. It had nothing to do with the central banks. Those in charge know less than the average investor. They proceed, always assuming they have power – but over what they do not comprehend.

They then announced that the dollar had fallen far enough. When the dollar continued to decline, that is when the market realized that the CENTRAL BANKS COULD NOT CONTROL THE WORLD ECONOMY. Once that took place, that is what unfolded as the 1987 Crash. My biggest accomplishment was to persuade the Brady Commission not to impose restrictions on the market when the formation of the G5 created the crisis. But the government will NEVER blame itself. The most significant accomplishment I was able to do was to get the Brady Commission to at least imply that foreign exchange had something to do with it.

The lesson of 1987 is NOT in the chart. It is behind the chart. Once the public realized that the central banks were not actually in control, that is when the panic took place. Today, when interest rates rise without the Fed’s actions because of the Neocons constantly threatening the world and China over Taiwan, that is when panic will strike. It all goes nuts once people realize that the government is just a ship of fools with ZERO sailing experience. That is when gold will break out. It is that CRACK IN CONFIDENCE that will cause the panic.

That is the Significance of the 1987 Crash

Oct 15 2023

Ardern Aftermath – New Zealand Elects Conservative Prime Minister Christopher Luxon


Posted originally on the CTH on October 14, 2023 | Sundance

You might remember in the aftermath of the ridiculous COVID restriction, when New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced her resignation, the media downplayed the most likely reason, she -and her leftist Labor Party- was going to get crushed in the next election.   Well, exactly that just happened.

Ardern and the Labor Party previously won more than 50% of the New Zealand vote, today that result was 27%.  Jacinda Ardern, a favorite of the World Economic Forum and leftists in the globalist movement, led her party to lose half of their Kiwi support.  The Conservative Party in New Zealand, led by Christoper Luxon, have won the election.

(Via UPI) New Zealand’s conservative National Party soundly defeated the ruling Labor Party in elections held Saturday, paving the way for Christopher Luxon to replace Chris Hipkins as prime minister.

Hipkins conceded defeat after results came in showing the National Party scoring historic gains even across some of the most reliable of Labor districts in the country.

With 99% of the vote counted, the National Party had garnered 39% of the vote, while Labor managed only 27% after getting 50% in the previous election. The Green Party, meanwhile, nabbed 11% and the small-government, libertarian ACT Party collected 9%.

The National Party will forge a governing coalition with the ACT Party, which between them total 61 seats, the barest possible margin to govern in New Zealand. (read more)

Ardern unexpectedly stepped down as prime minister in January, saying she no longer had “enough in the tank” to do the job justice.

Oct 11 2023

Solar forcing may have a 4 to 7 times greater effect on climate change than current climate models indicate


New Studies: Selection Bias In Datasets Advances A False Narrative The Sun Has No Climate Impact
New Studies: Selection Bias In Datasets Advances A False Narrative The Sun Has No Climate Impact
By Kenneth Richard on 5. October 2023
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Solar forcing may have a 4 to 7 times greater effect on climate change than current climate models indicate, which may mean modern climate change is predominantly natural rather than anthropogenic.
Anthropogenic global warming (AGW) attribution may be significantly dependent on the choice of dataset.
Advocates of AGW may only use Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) reconstructions that align with the perspective that the Sun has little to no impact on climate. Consequently, climate models may only use the PMOD’s model-based satellite data (which shows a declining trend since 1980) rather than the ACRIM (which shows an increasing TSI trend from the 1980s to 2000s).
The biased selection of long-term TSI reconstructions that show little to no variability are also preferred over TSI reconstructions with large variability. For example, the uncertainty in the estimate of the increase in TSI since the Maunder Minimum (1645-1715) ranges anywhere from 0.75 W/m² to 6.3 W/m² (Yeo et al., 2020). AGW advocates will, of course, select the lowest TSI change value (0.75 W/m²) and reject the higher values (6.3 W/m²), as then it is much easier to attribute modern warming to anthropogenic activity rather than to solar forcing.
The IPCC has selected one TSI dataset in the latest (2021) report for its global warming attribution assessments and climate models (GCMs). The dataset of course aligns only with the view modern warming is human-caused, and not natural, and thus it depicts a declining TSI trend since 1980 (PMOD) and almost no variability since the Maunder Minimum.
A new study (Connolly et al., 2023 with press release) identifies 27 other TSI estimates (purposely) ignored by the IPCC, several of which suggest modern warming may be up to 71-87% natural – especially if the temperature stations that do not show a strong artificial urban warming bias are used.
“Several of these different solar activity estimates suggest that most of the warming observed outside urban areas (in rural areas, oceans, and glaciers) could be explained in terms of the Sun.”


Image Source: Connolly et al., 2023 and press release
Another new study (Scafetta, 2023) suggests the Sun’s real climate impact may be 4-7 times larger than just from TSI (radiative) forcing alone, as the solar activity variations may mechanistically affect cloud albedo, which has been observed to drive 1-3 W/m² per decade changes in shortwave forcing (McLean, 2014).
“Thus, at least about 80% of the solar influence on the climate could be generated by processes other than direct TSI forcing.”
Climate models do not allow for any solar influence beyond the small, flat radiative forcing changes associated with TSI forcing, as this way it can be claimed that natural factors have little to no bearing on climate change.
Alternative solar activity records, as shown in TSI #2 Model below, have the Sun’s total impact directly linked to global temperature changes, including for recent decades.

Image Source: Scafetta, 2023
Oct 10 2023

Canada’s Governor General Spends Six-Figures on Dry Cleaning


Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption Re-Posted Oct 9, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The Office of the Secretary to the Governor General has managed to spend C$117,566 on dry cleaning services over the past five years. Rideau Hall spends around $1,800 monthly on dry cleaning and expenses it all so Canadian taxpayers foot the bill. There is an in-house staff on the payroll that takes care of chores such as laundry. How selfish as Ukraine could have used that money to put Zelensky back on the cover of Vogue.

“When I spill half the Pizza Hut lunch buffet on my white work shirt, I don’t stick the company I work for with the dry-cleaning bill and neither should the governor general,” said Franco Terrazzano, CTF Federal Director. “This is another perk the governor general enjoys that struggling Canadians can’t afford.” Obviously, this money is going into his pockets. These politicians are known for living a luxurious lifestyle as public servants.

Canada’s elite certainly don’t look like fashionistas, yet this is common. Governors General Julie Payette and Mary Simon spent over C$88,000 on clothing using tax dollars. They earn around C$351,600 annually but somehow the people are responsible for their personal items. Payette used federal funds to purchase a C$3,000 black velvet dress lined with silk. She purchased several suits for over C$2,000 a piece, a special order vest for C$1,800, and new boots for over C$1,000. The Office of the Secretary to the Governor General (OSGG) is provided with a large budget of C$130,000 to spend on clothing every five years.

Why on Earth should Canadians be paying to dress politicians? Don’t get me started on the C$55,000 Trudeau expensed for groceries in 2022 when Canadians were facing record-high food prices. They already have a hefty salary and perks galore. These politicians feel entitled to spend your money on their personal shopping sprees. The average person will never have such an extensive closet, but the average person is paying for their elected officials to live lavishly. Rules for thee but not for me.

Oct 5 2023

Russia Tested the Alert System on the Same Day as US


Armstrong Economics Blog/International News Re-Posted Oct 5, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

It has come to my attention that both the US and Russia held emergency alert tests on Wednesday. Unlike the US, Russia performs these tests regularly. Russia is actively engaged in war, surrounded by NATO and neocons chomping at the bit to invade. Putin has been vocal about his concerns of nuclear war, and at that point, it’s likely too late. One must wonder why both nations chose the same day to run this test.

“Hearing the sound of a siren, you need to remain calm and not panic, turn on the TV—any publicly accessible channel or radio—and listen to the information message,” Russia’s Ministry of Emergency Situations (MCHS) said via its Telegram channel. The Russian government stated that the alerts are crucial “to be confident in the performance of all existing systems for the timely delivery of signals and information to the population in the event of emergency situations.” Remember that hackers managed to break into Russia’s system earlier this year. They issued a message to the public that a nuclear attack had happened and urged citizens to seek shelter.

Russia first tested its emergency alert system in 2020 and is required to hold tests biannually. They urge their citizens to keep their devices powered on to receive any relevant alerts. “The warning system is designed to timely convey a signal to the population in the event of a threat or emergency of a natural or man-made nature,” the Ministry of Emergency Situations said.

Most countries conduct this type of testing. It is peculiar that both Russia and America would plan their tests for the same day. Is it a coincidence or something more?

Oct 3 2023

Transnational Gangs – America is Under Attack


Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption Re-Posted Oct 3, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

America has been invaded; no one is safe. The media has stifled reports that groups of migrants are targeting upscale residents and burglarizing homes. Biden provided these people with entry under the Visa Waiver Program. These people are trained and committing these crimes on behalf of their respective gangs. Oakland County Sheriff Michael Bouchard is one of many sounding the alarm over these “transnational gangs.”

“They typically hit homes from 5 to 9 p.m., they seem to want houses where nobody’s home, and they usually come in through windows in the back,” the sheriff explained. “They do a lot of surveillance, we believe, before they commit a crime,” Bouchard continued. “Usually, it’s two or three people working together, with one of them stationed outside as a driver.” Bouchard said they are targeting individuals rather than communities, and watching their whereabouts before attacking. “They don’t recognize jurisdictions or borders of a country, a state or a county,” he confirmed.

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As if our tax dollars were not enough. The majority of people illegally entering America do not have good intentions. US Immigration and Customs Enforcement has also recognized these transnational gangs spreading the nation. “Gangs strike fear into our local neighborhoods, commit violent crimes against our citizens and facilitate criminal activity such as narcotics and firearms trafficking, sex trafficking, human smuggling and trafficking, and corruption,” the agency states on its website.

The enemy is within and the current administration deliberately invited them. Only the politicians in tune with the plans for the Great Reset understand why these illegal aliens are coming in droves. Hence why even Democrats are begging for border security now and wondering why nothing is being done. What will these people do when America is weakened after a government shutdown? The government can no longer be trusted to protect the people. Communities must ban together and protect one another from the enemy within.