Tag Archives: David Pristash

Oct 12 2018

Independent Audit Exposes the Fraud in Global Warming Data


Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate

RE-Posted Oct 12, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

An independent audit of the key temperature dataset that is being used by climate models has exposed more than 70 problems with the data which render it “unfit for global studies.” Problems include zero degree temperatures in the Caribbean, 82 degree C temperatures in Colombia and ship-based recordings taken 100km inland. The audit has concluded that the studies are deliberately exaggerating temperatures to support a theory of global warming utilizing global averages that are far less certain than what is being forecast.

The audit has revealed that “that climate models have been tuned to match incorrect data, which would render incorrect their predictions of future temperatures and estimates of the human influence of temperatures.” Furthermore, the Paris Climate Agreement adopted 1850-1899 averages as “indicative” of pre-industrial temperatures is “fatally flawed.” The entire Paris Climate Agreement has an agenda to eliminate effectively the advancement of society and attempt to reset the clock to the pre-Industrial Revolution. This entire theory that before the Industrial Revolution, our planet’s atmosphere was somehow pristine and uncontaminated by human-made pollutants has been also proven to be completely bogus.  Bubbles trapped in Greenland’s ice has revealed that we began emitting greenhouse gases at least 2,000 years ago. The Romans even constructed the first aqueduct was built in 312 BC because there was a serious problem with water pollution. Seneca (c 4BC-65AD), the adviser to Nero, wrote in 61AD: “No sooner had I left behind the oppressive atmosphere of the city [Rome] and that reek of smoking cookers which pour out, along with clouds of ashes, all the poisonous fumes they’ve accumulated in their interiors whenever they’re started up, than I noticed the change in my condition.”

This new audit argues even the most simple basic quality checks had not been done on the HadCRUT4 data which is managed by the UK Met Office Hadley Centre and the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia. The audit exposed that estimates were made of the uncertainties arising from thermometer accuracy, homogenization, sampling grid boxes with a finite number of measurements available, large-scale biases such as urbanization and estimation of regional averages with non-complete global measurement coverage.

The audit has exposed the dishonesty in this entire scheme and it appears to be directed at the goal of reducing the population. Anomalies it has identified include at St Kitts in the Caribbean, the average temperature for December 1981 was zero degrees, normally it’s 26C. For three months in 1978, one place in Colombia reported an 82 degrees Celsius average – hotter than the hottest day on Earth. Then in Romania, one September the average temperature was reported as minus 46°C, which has never happened. The data showed that supposedly ships would report ocean temperatures from places up to 100km inland. The paper also points out that the most serious flaws identified was the shortage of data. For the first two years, from 1850 onwards, the only land-based reporting station in the Southern Hemisphere was in Indonesia. Then there were ship observations at the time but Australian records had not started until 1855 in Melbourne, behind Auckland which started in 1853. This data appears to have been just made up.

According to the HadCRUT4 calculation of coverage, it was almost 1950 before there was data from even half of the Southern Hemisphere was available. Yet they claim global warming has taken hold for 100 years prior. Then the Paris Climate Agreement takes the HadCRUT4 average from 1850 to 1899 as an “indicative” temperature or pre-Industrial Revolution. There is absolutely no possible way the data set being used to support all this Global Warming is even valid for any forecast.

Oct 11 2018

The US Share Market – Dow Closes at 25,052.83


Armstrong Economics Blog/Stock Indicies

Re-Posted Oct 11, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

US stocks have plunged this week from the high of the week of 10/01 which has been the biggest rout since February. Meanwhile, investors remain jittery, to put it mildly, and confused as people try to attach a fundamental reason for the decline mixing in the recent jump in interest rates and the potential harm tariffs could cause tech companies. But our sources overseas are more concerned about politics. The Democrats are vowing to raise taxes and lower health care costs which they created in the first place.

The NASDAQ peaked in August and our model had called for an August high would be followed by a low into this period. So nothing unusual has transpired other than foreign buyers have backed off concerned about what happens if the Democrats take the House. The S&P500 peaks in September and the Dow peaked in October with the dollar illustrating once again the international capital flows are different from domestic.

The interest rates have been rising since the 4th quarter of 2015. To suddenly claim that is the reason for the decline merely reflects the problem that they need to point to something to explain a move that cannot be attributed to anything but the political uncertainty on the horizon.

We will update Tonight on the Private Blog with the specific numbers.

Oct 11 2018

Global Warming – Court Orders – Pathetic Analysis


Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate

Re-Posted Oct 11, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

 

In the Netherlands, the high court has now ordered the Dutch Government to cut greenhouse gases by 25% before end 2020. The court called it a Violation of the duty of care pursuant to articles 2 and 8 ECHR. The state must now further reduce greenhouse gases. Then we have the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that now says coal-fired electricity must end by 2050 if we are to limit global warming rises to 1.5C. They have NEVER heard of cycles and they simply project whatever trend is in motion will stay in motion. They never take nature into account and ignore everything else in the entire world not to mention volcanoes.

Rather than actually outlaw anything, the governments prefer to PUNISH people, which is far more profitable, by raising taxes dramatically. Now a Harvard study shows that large-scale Wind Farms also raise the temperature.

The way you do research is you test EVERY connection – you do not start with a presumption and then go off and try to prove something. On top of that, there are cycles to absolutely everything. There is nothing void of a cyclical nature.

Indeed, the 20th century will be remembered for four scientific revolutions–Relativity, Quantum Mechanics, Chaos and Fractal Geometry. The Father of Chaos Theory is Edward Norton Lorenz (1917–2008) who was an American mathematician and meteorologist. Lorenz was certainly THE pioneer in Chaos Theory. A professor at MIT, Lorenz was the first to recognize what is now called chaotic behavior in the mathematical modeling of weather systems.

During the 1950s, Lorenz observed that there was a cyclical non-linear nature to weather yet the field relied upon linear statistical models in meteorology to do weather forecasting. It was like trying to measure the circumference of a circle with a straight edge ruler. His work on the topic culminated in the publication of his 1963 paper Deterministic Non-periodic Flow in the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, and with it, the foundation of chaos theory. During the early 1960s, Lorenz had access to early computers. He was running what he thought would be random numbers and began to observe there was a duality of a hidden repetitive nature. He graphed the numbers that were derived from his study of convection rolls in the atmosphere. What emerged has been perhaps one of the most important discoveries in modern time.

This illustration of the Lorenz Strange Attractor is incredibly important and was first reported in 1963. Lorenz’s discovery of a strange attractor was made during an attempt to create a model of weather patterns. The actual experiment was an attempt to model the atmospheric dynamics of the planet. It involved a truncated model of the Navier-Stokes equations. It is a visual example of a non-linear dynamic system corresponding to the long-term behavior in a cyclical manner revealing a hidden order we cannot otherwise observe. The Lorenz Strange Attractor is a 3-dimensional dynamical system that exhibits chaotic flow, noted for its interesting shape revolving around two invisible strange points in space-time we call Strange Attractors. The map shows how the state of a dynamical system with three variables of a three-dimensional system evolves over the fourth dimension time in a complex, yet non-repeating pattern. In other words, here is a visualization of duality – what appears to be randomness (chaos) yet simultaneously there is a broader clear pattern of order. The same identical structure appears in the light where it is both a waveform and particle, as we see in the economy where we retain our individuality yet at the same time we are part of a broader collective pattern. This is the very essence of the Invisible Hand – or in Lorenz terms, a Strange Attractor.

Lorenz also discovered in 1969, that very minor differences in a dynamic nonlinear system, which would include the economy, could trigger vast and often unsuspected drastic results. These observations ultimately led him to formulate what became known as the term Butterfly Effect in 1969 regarding this fascinating discovery. Very tiny changes in what might appear to be minor data at the outset had a ripple effect throughout the entire system creating a substantially different outcome. This term grew out of an academic paper he presented in 1972 entitled: “Predictability: Does the Flap of a Butterfly’s Wings in Brazil Set Off a Tornado in Texas?”

Chaos theory was thus born. The Butterfly Effect is the sensitive dependence on initial conditions whereby a very small change at one place in a nonlinear system can result in large differences to a later state. The effect derives its name from the theoretical example of a hurricane’s formation being contingent on whether or not a distant butterfly had flapped its wings several weeks before. Lorenz’s early insights marked the beginning of a new field of study that impacted not just the field of mathematics but virtually every branch of science–biological, physical and social. In meteorology, these discoveries have led some to presume that it may be fundamentally impossible to predict weather beyond two or three weeks with a reasonable degree of accuracy. However, such assumptions ignore the duality structure and the true importance of the Strange Attractor.

Lorenz demonstrated the profound realization that may be far more important than Einstein’s Relativity or even the discovery of Quantum Mechanics is matched only by Fractal Geometry. Lorenz demonstrated that the very idea of a deterministic system with formal predictability limitations does not actually exist; in other words, the Cartesian universe. I believe that Lorenz’s discoveries have overshadowed both relativity and quantum mechanics for they have truly opened the door to the Grand Unified Theory or the Theory of Everything if someone is willing to take that first step through the door.

Cyclical Analysis is the key to understanding the universe for it is the very essence of how all energy moves. It is the wave in light, but it is the attempt to predict where the particle will appear in the wave formation. If we look at the atomic structure it is the same design structure we see at the planetary level. The structural design and integrity are the same on all levels. In other words, it is fractal in composition. The same pattern repeated over and over again.

It is really pathetic how these charlatans ignore science on every level to produce a forecast that only puts money in their pockets. NOBDOY will fund anything to the contrary because governments are not interested unless it puts money in their pockets.

Oct 11 2018

When the Market Crashes The Scenarios Make No Sense


Armstrong Economics Blog/Stock Indicies

Re-Posted Oct 10, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

Interest Rates have been on the rise since 2015.75 4th quarter. All of a sudden, the headlines claim U.S. stocks took a dump to close sharply lower because investors spooked by rising bond yields sold equities in all sectors. The Nasdaq Composite Index (COMP) fell 315.97 points, or 4.1%, to 7,422.05, its biggest decline of 2018. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 800 points and the S&P 500 had its worst day since February as technology stocks went into a freefall.

This really begs the question – Did everyone suddenly notice interest rates? No, the market peak on the target week in the Array of 10/01 so it is simply all about the market getting tired. The vast majority are bearish and the most fascinating thing is what happened to the Flight to Quality? Normally, the stock market crashes and you run to bonds. But if the stock market is crashing and bonds are crashing, is this a completely new type of flight?

We will be providing an update tonight on the private blog.

Oct 10 2018

Interest Rates & the Long-Broad Trend


Armstrong Economics Blog/Interest Rates

Re-Posted Oct 10, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I cannot tell you how much I respect your work and your computer. It is so obvious that you have been correct on every market. Even last year at the WEC you warned that interest rates would continue to rise and the stock market would not Crash and Burn. My hat is off to you. My question is we are approaching that number —— you gave at the WEC for the breakout in interest rates. We should expect rates to rise despite the fact that Trump has said the Fed is raising rates too fast?

Thank you

See you in Orlando

UT

ANSWER: Everything is connected. You push on one domino and its forces all the others to fall in their time and place. This is the difference between a domestic analyst who forecasts based upon his opinion and a global perspective that is shaped by trends.

Treasury 10-year yields rose the most since February as stronger US economic data added to the case for reduced stimulus measures from the Federal Reserve. Trump’s tax breaks, despite what the Democrats say, are the reason behind the strength in the economy. In fact, a correlation of tax decreases with economic activity increases in growth is 100% spot on. Raise taxes and people have less to spend and then economic growth declines. It does not take a Nobel Prize to figure that one out.

Emerging-market stocks have tumbled 4.5% in the five days last week, which was their worst performance since February. The dollar has rallied despite everyone saying it was crash. Let me make this perfectly clear: The dollar’s rally will continue overall. The Fed will continue its policy of gradual interest-rate increases at least through the end of 2019 and probably into 2020. Meanwhile, the rise in US rates will FIRST cause tremendous problems in Emerging Markets and then in Europe, followed by Japan. There is no getting away from this trend.

Oct 9 2018

Is the Greatest Trade on the Century Knocking on the Door Yet?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Training Tools

Re-Posted Oct 9, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Hello Mr Armstrong
I have been following you now for a couple of years, since the movie the forcaster, it showed me exactly whats is happening in the world and how little I know about finaces and trading. I am a blue collar worker in Canada with a small pension, how can I or where should I go to learn how to trade? Better yet how to use Socrates or someone who can help me or invest for me?
Your work has opened my eyes and also scares the hell out of me for what is coming.
Please can you help me and the other little guys who not as educated?
Thank you

ANSWER: What you want is not to short-term TRADE but to be a position trader. People who try to trade back and forth usually get caught up in emotions and end up losing money. What you want is to POSITION TRADE for the long-haul.  Here is what happens just using the Long-term Reversals only – not even every single one. Sure, you leave some on the table. The important thing is to reduce the number of trades and your confidence will increase and you will actually make more at the end of the day.

Right now, we are still in this consolidation phase, yet this is still a cycle inversion. We have not elected any Monthly Bearish Reversals at all so you just stay with the trade. The exit point keeps rising as the market rises. You can use the Weekly to Exit after a long bullish run. But for now, just hang tight. We may have the greatest trade on the century knocking on the door very soon.

Oct 9 2018

It’s the Inter-connectivity that is the Key


Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles

RE-Posted Oct 9, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Hello Mr Armstrong,
I read your blog since many years (i live in France) and i’m really impressed by Socrates … You have said that the $ will going to rise against the € and it’s exactly what’s happened !!
You have said that the Dow Jones will rise into 26 000 points and will go on into 40 000 points and the Dow rise since the elction of Trump and we are going to live what Socrates has predicted !!
INCREDIBLE because all the interview and news that i have seen were going to explain that it will be the contrary. Is it the slingshot which is going to happen ? Are we waiting the rise of the Gold before to have the final signal ?
You have always said that the Gold, the $ and the Dow will rise together when the slingshot will begin … are we to this moment ? or is it too early ?
Thanks Mr Armstrong and good things to you and your team.

LB

ANSWER: Absolutely everything is connected. If you get one right, then the rest must follow. It is really impossible to have one market moving opposite of everything else. It is sort of like the world is in a Great Depression and it is impossible for one politician in one country to reverse the trend of the world. So the world economy is very much like a set of dominoes. It is impossible to reverse the trend and it just has to play out. We are not yet ready on the gold. As you can see, gold has been declining in dollars as well as euros. The markets have been consolidating waiting as people are trying to figure out if this the big crash or not. The majority keep calling for the end of times. This has been the MOST hated Bull Market in history. They keep calling for the crash ever since 2009.

Oct 8 2018

Debt Soars, IMF warns


Armstrong Economics Blog/Sovereign Debt Crisis

Re-Posted Oct 8, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Do you concur with the IMF WARNING?

RKC

ANSWER: The IMF said: “No financial regulatory framework can or should aim to reduce the probability of crisis to zero, so regulators should remain humble.”  What the IMF is warning about is the risk of interest rates rising and countries who have borrowed in dollars are presenting a major Emerging Market Debt Crisis. Then we have the two-fold risk is the currency and the interest rates. Many others have borrowed but with floating rates. Our model is warning that rates are going to more than DOUBLE. In the face of that probability, we are looking at a very distinct and unique type of debt crisis.

Oct 8 2018

Napoleon – War – Sunspots & Human Excitability


Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles

Re-Posted Oct 8, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: I love when you educate us about the weather, especially the cycles. the NAPOLEON story killed me !!! I’m a french and believe me, nobody talked in school about the weather cycles when he tried to fight Russia and lost everything. I read 3 times your chart which plots the temperatures and the cycle initiated by the volcano a few years ago. you are enough smart to guess that French teachers NEVER talk this story under this angle of cooling temperatures…

REPLY: When you correlate everything you see the patterns. Sure, at Waterloo, the French used CANNONS while the British used CANISTERS. On the day of the battle, it rained a lot. The ground was very muddy, soft and wet mud. In that weather and ground conditions, cannons were not as effective.  It was more than just the weapons. In those weather conditions, Napoleon delayed and that cost him the battle. But had the weather been dry, things may have been different. The cold clearly beat Napoleon on his attempted invasion of Russia.

There is also the Human Excitability Study where war was correlated to sunspot activity. The sunspot cycle is roughly every eleven years. However, this time it’s different. The sun is headed for a very rare, super-cooling period that threatens to topple civilization itself as it has throughout history roughly following a 300-year cycle.

For most of its history, science believed the sun’s output was constant. They finally realized that a thermal dynamic cycle beats like your heart so the sun could not exist if it was a steady outflow of energy. One degree less and it would blow itself out. Hence, it is cyclical rising and falling in intensity.

The eleven-year cycle in sunspots itself builds in intensity like the Economic Confidence Model (ECM) reaching “grand maxima” and “grand minima” over the course of 300 years. The last grand maximum peaked circa 1958, after which the sun has been steadily quieting down. Today, the drop in activity is at its steepest in 9,300 years, which is being ignored by the Global Warming propaganda.

The last Maunder Minimum, during which the sun languished for seventy years, took place from 1645 to 1715 when the sun’s brightness declined and the number of sunspots collapsed to almost zero. We are seeing almost zero so far in 2018.

Alexander Leonidovich  Tchijevsky (1897-1964) did a study on sunspot and human activity. He found that humans responded even creating wars with the swings in sunspot activity. He may be most notable for his use of historical research (historiometry) techniques to link the 11-year solar cycle, Earth’s climate and the mass activity of peoples.  Just after World War I, Tchijevsky published a book on cycle theory. Perhaps the title was not destined to make the book a smash hit, but it might take a big breath away before you finish reading the last word. The title was: “Investigation of the Relationship Between the Sunspot Activity and the Course of the Universal Historical Process from the V Century B.C. to the Present Day.”

The title is a bit of a long-winded oddity suggesting that human nature becomes more excited during the increased periods of sunspot activity. Whether or not Tchijevsky proved his theory that we are all driven by sunspots, much in the same manner as the moon drives the tides of the seas is another subject which I am not too certain about. Tchijevsky’s work is an interesting collection of knowledge that does illustrate a pattern within human activity.

Tchijevsky did prove that man became more excited every 11 years which did correspond to the know 11-year cycle of sunspot activity. He gathered data from 72 nations from 500 B.C. to 1922. Throughout the 2,422 years, he included such factors of human excitability as war, riots, revolutions, expeditions, and migrations. He took into consideration the magnitude of the event, the size of the area affected, and the number of people involved. The charts that are reproduced here give a very interesting cyclical view of man’s activity which you can call emotion or excitability.

The Tchijevsky cycle clearly indicates that every 11 year cycle period can be broken down into four distinct periods. Period #1 has a duration of three years which is marked by peace, passiveness, and general rule by minorities. Period #2 has a duration of two years in which general excitability grows from political unrest. New ideas or concepts emerge which tend to challenge the party in controL These ideas become popular answers to present day problems but there is a definite lack of a uniting force. Period #3 again has a duration of three years. Under this period the public’s voice is heard. Under a dictatorship, this has been the strongest period of mass riots and revolutions in which major problems are solved. At times, anarchy does prevail but generally democratic reforms are gained. Period #4 has a duration again of about three years. The general excitability declines, and the people go along contented in a state of apathetic moods. Peace movements usually are generated during this period. The masses prosper and go about their normal course of life awaiting the sun to set and the new light of dawn which brings the beginning of a new cycle.

Reflect for a moment about these four distinct periods. Looking at our own recent political history, we see a similarity between this cycle and our preference towards political parties. For example. we had a cycle of peace and passiveness following World War II culminating in the peak of period #3 during the Johnson term. We entered period #4 bringing in President Nixon as everyone went about their business. Gradually we entered period #1 which brought about the Watergate affair resulting in the Ford administration and period #2 which has a duration of 2 years. Jimmy Carter arrived in town ushering in period #3 which is the peak on the 11-year cycle that normally contains revolution of political unrest. This brought about period #4 when we revolted against the Inflationary policies of the Democrats by voting in President Reagan with a sense of returning back to passiveness and old standards and goals.

Who knows if these events indeed were caused by sunspot activity? Perhaps the sunspots do affect our emotions in much the same manner as the moon can move the ocean from side to side. But the fact that remains is this: a cycle does exist. You can find no century on this chart that was ever lacking such human excitability. We are indeed “only human” to capture a saying normally invoked for human error. We have all heard that history repeats itself. Perhaps it is not history that repeats so much as human error. We are not immortal. We have not lived constantly throughout time. We die and are replaced by new generations. Each generation tends to believe that they are smarter than the last, failing to accurately study the errors made by previous generations; they will make the same mistakes.

Perhaps the events might differ but the result is always the same. Just as the Crusaders charged off to the Middle East to free the holy land from pagan Arabs, as they viewed it, we charged off into Europe to set the world free from the madness of Hitler; both resulted in worldwide wars so the events may have been different but the motives, passions, and outcomes were the same.

Tchijevsky’s attempt to relate man’s excitability to sunspot activity did accomplish one thing significant. His life’s work may not have proved or disproved his sunspot theory, however, it did provide us with evidence that man’s excitability, or emotions as I prefer to call it, moves within a cyclical pattern that can be identified