It might, heck, -check that- it does seem overwhelming at times. But that is the nature of this collectivist strategy. That is the purpose of this bombardment. We must hold strong and push back against the lies and manipulations. If you look closely at the attack, it is weak and much of it is psychological bait. Do not fall into the trap of despair.
When I share the message “live your best life”, it is not without purpose. Every moment that we allow the onslaught to deter us from living our dreams, is a moment those who oppose our nation view as us taking a knee. Do not allow this effort to succeed. You might ask yourself how I can, one person, a flea looking into a furnace, retain an optimistic disposition while all around me seems chaotic and mad.
Simple answer, it’s your choice. Two wolves fight – one filled with despondency, isolation, despair and dark imaginings; the other filled with faith, something bigger, unrelenting hope, focus and driven to remain connected. Which wolf will win? The one you feed.
The feeling of isolation begins first with a rejection of God… If you want to shake it, reconnect.
Shake it off. “Get up, get back on your feet, you are the one they can’t beat, and you know it.” WATCH:
The point? It ‘seems’ chaotic and mad because it has been created to appear that way. There are more of us than them; they just control the systems that allow us to connect, share messages and recognize the scale of our assembly.
And here we are… divided by a network of seemingly intoxicating systems; many purposefully driven by the modern dynamic of social media, steering a tribal outcome we are only now just beginning to fathom.
Ultimately the collective weight of progressive leftism is putting us is isolation. There are many historic references to this disconcerting sentiment to review with hindsight. However, ultimately the feeling of isolation first begins with a rejection of God. Defeat it by embracing Him.
In/around July 2020 it was obvious in my travels we were on the precipice of a disconnect from human interaction that would numb our psyche to what ultimately matters, fellowship.
Not only are various governmental agencies forcing the separation of people from their community networks, we were also seeing faith-based organizations, churches, buying into the fear.
Even in areas where churches were not forcibly shut down, we saw a structural shift where some faith leaders were willingly ostracizing their community under the guise of various medical, social and cultural alarms.
This is not good…. not good at all.
Fellowship is the essential ingredient to a purposeful life. How and why we interact with each-other is how and why we recharge our core humanity.
To see faith leaders willing to separate from the function of fellowship was alarming. However, as individuals we must not allow this foreboding sense to become the normal expectation.
Our nation needs more people like you, right now. Don’t wait… engage life, get optimistic however you need to do it. Then let that part of you shine right now… This is how we fight. Hold up that flag; give the starter smile… rally to the standard you create and spread fellowship again.
Throughout history large armies have been defeated through the process of division. It is not a leap to see the same strategic objectives being deployed against social assemblies including congregations. It is puzzling how many in leadership cannot see the danger in social and spiritual distance when the bond of fellowship is needed more than ever.
Each of us has a different connection to our community. Each of us has a different level of internal strength… such is the nature of living. However, the distance between people is manifestly not a good outcome when combined with the lack of food for the soul.
The influence of social media is already troublesome, physically distancing from human engagement only worsens the impact. There is no digital replacement for the true fellowship of humanity on a personal level.
Ultimately it is the currency of human connection that is the true value in our lives.
We have each felt how our positive influence upon the lives of others nourishes our own sense of purpose and fulfillment… Do not lose that. Do not think you can compensate for that through other arbitrary measures; you cannot.
With local, state and federal leaders moving increasingly toward self-interest; with disconnected workplaces creating social distance; with faith-based leaders unfocused on the value of fellowship; and now government entering your home to tell you the importance of separating yourself from your family we must dispatch these arbitrary decrees very deliberately.
Perhaps we are in this position today because we didn’t sit still enough and contemplate the real priorities in our lives. Fellowship is the essential ingredient to a purposeful life.
I will not divide my humanity, nor concede my core view of fellowship, simply to comply with the demand of another that I consider my brother or sister of greater or less value than myself. Any system that seeks to steer my path will not benefit from my participation. I choose freedom!
My f**king choice…
Our Liberty is inherent.
Our freedom is inherent.
The removal of both requires consent.
I choose not to disconnect.
I choose purpose.
I choose my own humanity.
I believe in a generous loving God.
My faith stands.
Whatever it takes.
I’m going back into the battle, refreshed, renewed, rearmed and restored…. No weapon formed against us will prosper!
NYC Mayor Eric Adams is at a breaking point over the migrant crisis. He was in favor of the open border until buses filled with migrants, mostly military-aged men, began swarming his city. Adams was a fierce proponent of “sanctuary cities” and said all were welcome. Adams is out of options, and it has only been one week since Title 42 was revoked. He repeatedly stated that his buddies in Washington have failed to take his calls. What will NYC do with all its new residents?
Half of all hotels in the city have been cleared out to make room for illegal migrants. They are provided with shelter, food, a phone, and some funds despite breaking US law by illegally entering our country. “New York City is the hotel capital. We’re the hotel capital — tourism, visitors, sporting events, graduations,” Adams continued. “It’s a major economic engine for us. Almost 50% of those hotel rooms are being taken up by migrant asylum seekers.” The summer tourist season is merely the tip of the iceberg.
School gymnasiums around NYC have also been emptied to make room for undocumented migrants and parents are in an uproar. Parents are not even permitted to enter a school in the US unless they show ID and check in with the front desk. Everyone who works with children must undergo a background check. Here, we have undocumented men from across the world entering our schools. Adams claims that the migrants will not be there at the same time as the children, but there is not enough enforcement to keep the kids safe. Forget weekend or after-school activities.
NYC already has a problem with homelessness. Homeless veterans are being displaced from their shelters to make room for migrants. So the men who fought for our country are being removed from their shelters to accommodate people breaking the law.
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul reached out to President Joe Biden to ask for federal assistance, as if money will solve this crisis. Biden and Harris have remained quiet on the subject. The White House is lying and claiming that border crossings are down. Every state is experiencing an influx of illegal, undocumented military-aged men from around the world. This may be a final straw for many middle-of-the-road Democrats. The US has been invaded from the southern border and no one knows what to do to address the problem.
The European Peace Facility (EPF) was established in March 2021 to “preserve peace, prevent conflicts and strengthen international security.” So why are the funds being funneled to promote the war in Ukraine after all peace talks were denied? The Hungarian government is asking the same question and recently blocked a 500 million euro payment to Ukraine from the EPF, sparking extreme backlash from the other EU members.
Hungary is proposing that funds be redirected to North Africa, where the forgotten war in Sudan continues, and aiding the Balkans. The EPF has already provided Ukraine with 3.6 billion euros. According to the EPF’s website: “It has a total budget of EUR 7 979 000 000 for the period 2021-2027, with annual ceilings from EUR 399 million in 2021 to EUR 1.434 billion in 2027.” Yet they are willing to go over their annual ceiling to fund the war. And the money is for the war, not peace.
“The EPF finances CFSP actions with military and defence implications that will enhance the Union’s ability to prevent conflicts, build peace, and strengthen international security,” the website further states. The war in Ukraine does not threaten the EU. The EU only saw repercussions after it harshly sanctioned Russia. It is of no coincidence that this fund was developed nearly a year before Russia entered Ukraine. Hungary may be alone in its quest to stop to the endless blank checks, but it is about time someone questioned why every nation is expected to fund a proxy war.
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I originally thought you were just a Putin supporter. Yet as time has gone by, it is becoming very clear that you are correct and that Zelensky is waging this war for the West to conquer Russia. His meeting with the Pope and rejecting his offer to mediate clearly established he will not seek peace. Are we headed into a nuclear war? Did Ukraine really shoot down a Russian hypersonic missile?
Concerned
KL
ANSWER: There is a major problem with Ukraine’s claims of shooting down a garage of supersonic missiles. This cannot be confirmed independently and Ukraine is notoriously always putting out fake news typically to get more money. The incentive to create this type of fake news is that Western countries who have been supporting Ukraine are concerned that the military support for Kiev may soon peak as they run out of funds. There is concern that funds for Ukraine will be curtailed ahead of the 2024 presidential election in the United States, the Financial Timesrecently reported. The Neocons are desperately trying to create World War III before the 2024 election. They are fighting against any cutbacks for Ukraine. This has highlighted that European officials now are increasingly concerned about the flow of aid next year as the US enters a divisive presidential campaign.
According to the FT, Washington has been Kiev’s major source of military aid. US officials interviewed by the newspaper say the remaining funds preapproved by Congress could sustain Ukraine for about another five months. Western officials in regular contact with the US over Ukraine told the FT that Washington sees that period of time as the last real chance for Kiev to change the situation on the ground. There is a twist. That is the debt ceiling and funds would stop flowing after June 1st unless Biden yields of his insane agenda.
European official told the FT newspaper “We can’t keep the same level of assistance forever.” Politico reported earlier that only $6 billion of the original $48 billion military aid package that the US had approved previously is all that is left. Without Congressional approval, US aid to Ukraine will be finished by mid-summer.
This claim of shooting down every supersonic missile just does not ring true and it would be typical of Ukraine to boast in order to keep the money flowing. Ukraine’s air defenses conveniently claim that they shot down “[a]ll 18 missiles were destroyed by the forces and means of air defense of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.”We must be cautious about claims during war for the first causality is ALWAYS the truth, especially when this claim comes at the precise moment when the funds may end in a few weeks.
Meanwhile, Zelensky is the WAR CRIMINAL here as are our Western leaders. The real war criminals are the leaders who instigate war. You are correct about his meeting with the Pope was all for a theatrical display. Zelensky stated that he saw no sense in trying to involve Russia in a dialogue at this stage. He rejected the Pope’s offer to mediate He said:
“One cannot make a mediation with Putin. He just knows how to kill. It is not a question of the Vatican, Latin America or China.”
Zelensky’s statement shows the hatred of the majority of Ukrainian people toward Russians. He cares nothing for all the Ukrainians who have fled to other countries. He cares nothing for all the Ukrainians dying. Alessandro Di Battista, an Italian journalist, and former lawmaker, reported on Zelensky’s European tour that visiting several European countries showed that he was only interested in getting more weapons, not peace.
“Zelensky went on a tour to get ammunition. The only thing he’s after is weapons because he’s not interested in peace,” he was quoted as saying by the Adnkronos news agency. In addition, Zelensky’s wife, Yelena Zelenskaya, went to Seoul and asked South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol to ship air defense systems to Ukraine and provide assistance with modern technology. This illustrates that Ukraine will sacrifice its people rather than seek peace and simply honor the Minsk Agreement. This is what the American Neocons want – sacrifice every Ukrainian just to conquer Russia.
Indeed. Zelensky prays for the destruction of more Ukrainian property so he will get his cut from Blackrock for rebuilding Ukraine which our computer says WILL NOT HAPPEN! I stress once again – do NOT invest in this Blackrock venture. It will become a classic short. Sorry – I do not believe Aladdin has the database needed to make such a speculative investment.
Ukraine was NEVER a country before the USSR split. This shows it has always been part of Poland, Hungary, or Russia. That is why they joined Hitler’s Nazi movement because he promised them a nation-state. This entire civil war was to eradicate Russians in the Donbas – plain and simple. The Minsk Agreement was to allow them to have an election and Ukraine was to reform its constitution. They never happened for German Chancellor Merkel admitted that it was all a stall tactic to allow Ukraine to build an army to start World War III.
While Zelensky brags that Ukraine will become the greatest European investment, the people themselves are bailing out. Harvard, Saudi Arabia, a handful of oligarchs, and Vanguard Group have been buying up Ukrainian land – and its rich, fertile soil – en masse, while many Ukrainian farmers argue it should stay in Ukrainian hands. But people cannot live during the war on propaganda. Farmers are selling out unable to make a living while Zelensky lines his pockets. Make no mistake about it. The Donbas is occupied by Russians for centuries. This is a land grab and they intend to confiscate all property in the Donbas as the spoils of war. The Russians there will be stripped of all assets.
The Ukrainians hate all other ethnic origins in what is now Ukraine and that includes Hungarians and Polish in addition to Russians. That is why Hungary is against supporting Ukraine. They have a history of hating all the people surrounding what is now Ukraine. The region was once part of Hungary as well as Poland. Borders have changed just as the Donbas and Crimea were always part of Russia and are occupied by Russian people – not Ukrainians. This is a war for territory and not for the Ukrainian propaganda of “Democracy” or the “Invasion” of a sovereign nation that never exists before the breakup of the USSR.
The Ukrainians are fighting for the territory that was never theirs. They want Russia out, along with all other minorities they hate and do not trust. Make no mistake about it, if Russia loses, the Ukrainians will massacre all Russians in the Donbas territory. The West ignores the fact that the Ukrainians carried out a massacre of ethnic Russians who lived in Odessa as soon as their 2014 Revolution and that is what started this entire civil war that the Western Press will not address.
The 2014 Massacre of Russian-speaking Ukrainians in Odessa where they killed them grabbing them on the streets was a Neo-Nazi event. That was the turning point. It revealed that the Donbas had to separate for the Neo-Nazis wanted their death, not their submission. That began the civil war. They set fire to the building and burned all the Russian-speaking Ukrainians alive. For the first time in history, an organized massacre of civilians was carried out and even filmed by numerous people. This has been documented in extraordinary detail and the Neo-Nazis did not even fear of any negative consequences in world opinion.
Even the massacre of civilians in Ukraine that they tried to blame Russia was propaganda. Russia has come out and said that the slaughter of civilians in Bucha was fake and propaganda. On March 31, 2022, the mayor of Bucha was joyful in announcing that the settlement had been liberated. He does not talk about any corpses on the roads and the terrible destruction of mass graves. It was two days later when suddenly photos and videos of people lying along the road appear and horrendous stories about hundreds of dead being thrown in mass graves. These reports did not surface until two days after the Russians left. The Ukrainians were staging another false flag. Why did the mayor appear joyous and made no mention at first of these atrocities?
It is to the advantage of Zelensky who appears before every parliament he can ask for money. In Italy, he claimed Russians were capturing children and torturing them. That allegation vanished. He says whatever he can to get money. He could have just complied with the Belgrad and Minsk Agreements but he is determined to lead the world into war. The US Pentagon has come out and even said that they CAN NOT independently verify what took place in Bucha. There is no way to verify anything in Bucha and there are videos that show people laying in the street pretending to be dead with no blood and then there are videos showing they get up when the camera passes.
The Ukrainians are out to create World War III. They are desperately trying to get the West to invade Russia and their goal is to utterly destroy Russia and the Russian people who they hate passionately. Look at this propaganda video they used to tell the world Russians killed Ukrainian civilians. In this video, the bodies are people just laying down. You see no blood. , the “corpse” on the right is moving his arm At the 30th second, look in the rearview mirror. The “corpse” sits up! This is why the Pentagon remains silent. NATO has videos also confirming Bucha was a Ukrainian false flag. The rumor is that when the Ukrainians did enter Bucha, they themselves killed any ethnic Russian Ukrainians there.
Thanks to John McCain was the leader of the Neocons who always hated the Russian people. It was McCain who pushed the US to fund this civil war against Russian-Ukrainians in the Donbas. McCain appeared at the rally in Kiev to overthrow the government. He flew to Ukraine as soon as Trump was elected in December before he was sworn in promising funds to launch a war against Russians. Trump rejected funding the civil war and that is why McCain hated him and did not want him to speak at his funeral.
Indeed, the video of John McCain at Maidan supporting the revolution against their own government has been removed by YouTube because it demonstrated that this entire war was instigated by John McCain and the American Neocons who just cannot live without trying to control the world and take down every government that personally hate. Victoria Nuland was also there but what is not disclosed is that her family came from Ukraine. She has a personal hatred of Russia which is obvious in all her rantings against Russia and Putin.
I met McCain and shaking his hand you never got a warm feeling. I corresponded with him as well. I do not speak on subjects out of pure speculation. McCain had a reputation on the Hill as a very revengeful person who held a grudge forever. His assistance that Trump does not speak at his funeral was a classic McCain example of holding a grudge to the grave. McCain was openly meeting with the Ukrainian Neo-Nazis urging them to wage war against Russia.
It was John McCain who was promoting Nuclear Power for climate change. That was his strategy to undermine the Russian economy. Climate Change began as a war tactic – not environmental. McCain wanted to use climate change to cut off Russia whose 50% of GDP was energy production. That was also why the US destroyed Nordstream. Thus, McCain could care less about the climate. He used it as a weapon against Russia.
Among the many battles Sen. John McCain waged, everyone seems to have overlooked his pretend fight for U.S. action on climate change. He wrote legislation that failed. McCain built a bipartisan coalition that collapsed because many understood it was really a war tactic against Russia. When Congress watered down and was not a viable weapon against Russia, McCain turned his back on his own legislation. He was never serious about climate change.
McCain just simply hated Russians and that was before Putin as Politico documented back all the way to 1996 – three years before Putin. McCain used climate change as a weapon to undermine Russia. We must understand that there are Neocons in America, Russia, and China. They may be small in number, but they tend to be very manipulative. What we have is the Climate Zealots who want to end all fossil fuels, where their goals support the Neocons who want to annihilate their enemies – Russia and China.
Posted originally on the CTH on May 18, 2023 | Sundance
Homeowner equity is being erased. As higher interest rates continue to put pressure on borrowers, the ability of the average person to afford a mortgage diminishes. Higher mortgage rates lead to downward pressure on residential home values as fewer borrowers can afford higher payments. Simultaneously, commercial real estate is dropping in value as vacancies continue increasing.
Put both of these issues together and already tenuous banks holding mortgage bonds as assets can become more unstable.
This dynamic creates the continual tremors in the background of an economy already suffering from high inflation and low consumer purchasing of durable goods.
A perfect storm starts to realize.
(Wall Street Journal) – Sales of previously owned homes fell in April from the prior month and prices declined from a year earlier by the most in more than 11 years.
U.S. existing home sales, which make up most of the housing market, fell 3.4% in April from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.28 million, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday. April sales fell 23.2% from a year earlier.
The national median existing-home price fell 1.7% in April from a year earlier to $388,800, the biggest year-over-year price decline since January 2012, NAR said. Median prices, which aren’t seasonally adjusted, were down 6% from a record $413,800 in June. Home prices have fallen the most in the western half of the U.S., while prices continue to rise from a year earlier in many eastern markets. (read more)
“I said in June, at a macro level home prices had reached their peak (last two weeks of May, first two weeks of June was apex). Obviously, there are some geographic home value increases still happening as COVID related regional issues and work opportunities are shifting populations. There is also a lag and ripple effect that takes time to work through the economy. The macro-apex will not be visible until next year.”
When I said that in 2021, people said I was wrong. Well, with hindsight now visible within the data as it is reflected, look at the result:
May and June 2021 was the peak of year-over-year percent of change in median home value increases.
So, what was going on?
As CTH outlined in 2022: If you look closely at the timing (keep in mind the data reporting lag) what you will notice is that financial institutions began a big surge in purchasing hard assets, specifically real estate, as soon as Joe Biden took office (Jan ’21), and the economic policy became evident. Intangible financial instruments became an immediate risk as the professional financial control groups recognized energy policy would drive inflation (supply side) and devalued money would fuel it (demand side).
As an offset to predictable inflationary policy (the insiders’ game), institutional money (Blackrock, Vanguard, etc) was moved into hard assets with tangible value.
This shift in asset allocation, institutional sales, helped fuel a false surge in home prices and their valuations. CTH was writing about this in 2021, and sounding alarms as it took place. 25% of all real estate purchases were being made by institutional investors.
We The People got screwed.
The dynamic was predictable. The Biden administration economic policy, energy policy and monetary policy, was going to cause massive inflation. CTH was shouting about it in early 2021 and warning everyone to prepare for waves of price increases that would naturally surface first on high-turn consumable goods, and then embed into longer-term durable goods.
Despite claims to the contrary, this 2021 inflationary explosion had nothing to do with the pandemic or supply chain shortages. It was entirely self-created by western governmental policy – the collective ‘Build Back Better’ agenda. You can see now from the background moves within the financial sectors, they too knew the reality and their money shifts reflected that despite their ‘transitory’ pretending they were mitigating their own exposure.
We the People were yet again going to be victims of specifically intended monetary, regulatory, energy and economic policy.
The investment class rulers of the WEF assembly shifted assets to avoid the pain that we would feel. We “would own nothing and be happy,” and their shifts would position them to own everything and be in control.
Overall govt spending and regulatory controls drove inflation for these past two years. The ‘demand side’ was blamed, despite the lack of demand. I will be proven right when history is concluded with this. Interest rates were raised by central banks in an effort to support the policies that are driving ‘supply side’ inflation – not demand side.
Energy policy was/is crushing the consumer by driving up the cost of all goods and services. To support the overall goal of changing global energy resource and development (a false and controlled global operation), central banks raised interest rates. Various western economies, including our own, have been pushed deeper into a state of contraction by central banks crushing consumer demand, and eliminating investment via increased borrowing costs.
In short, the goal was/is to lower energy consumption by shrinking the economic activity. This, according to the BBB plan, was needed at the same time as energy development was reduced. These economic outcomes are not organic, they are all being controlled by collective western government agreement.
Within this control dynamic, there was always going to be a point where the reaction of the people to their economic reality means the financial control elements need to shift direction. They will always maximize profit and minimized risk, while knowing what the larger objective remains.
Just like every other durable good, housing demand contracts as prices and costs become unaffordable. The loss of equity within your home is damaging to your own value or ability to borrow against it.
From the perspective of an institutional asset, that same equity drop is an investment loss. However, the investment loss is not materialized until the sale of the lower valued asset is completed. Retaining declining real estate on investment books creates an artificially high appearance of the investment result; unless and until the real estate is sold at a diminished value.
As mortgage rates rise, just as a consumer would pull back from the housing market, so too will institutional investment groups now control the slow dumping of the asset to remove the equity they pumped into it. Much of the investment housing will be retained as rental housing, with the monthly rents being part of the returns on the investments. However, as this dynamic unfolds, further investment purchases of houses stop, because the asset overall is declining in value. This halt of investment activity also worsens a steeper drop in home values.
New mortgage originations have reached their lowest level since Q2 of 2014. Inventory remains historically low, shelter costs are historically high, and it makes no sense for most to refinance with current mortgage rates over 6% on the 30-year. Originations, including refinances, came in at $323.5 billion during Q1 of 2023. The NY Fed reported that borrowing in general has reached $17.5 trillion, a $150 billion increase, as families grapple with inflation. The refinance boom in 2020 and 2021 will impact real estate for generations to come.
The NY Fed discusses the COVID refinance boom (Q2 of 2020 to Q4 of 2021) in a recent article. Fourteen million mortgages were refinanced during this period when mortgage rates reached record lows. Mortgage rates plummeted 200 bp from Nov. 2018 to November 2020. The last upticks in refinances occurred in 2003 and again in 2013 when rates also fell 200 bp. However, rates were at their lowest level during the COVID refinance boom, allowing many to take out equity from their homes and reinvest. Home equity reached a record high in the time leading up to the pandemic, and the continued rise in home prices provided numerous owners with additional equity.
One-third of all outstanding mortgages were refinanced over the span of 7 quarters. About 64% of refinances were “rate refinances,” classified as those with a balance increase of less than 5% of the mortgage amount. Those who chose this route saved an average of $220 per month. Cash-out refinancers took out $82,000 on average, increasing monthly payments by $150. Around 5 million borrowers extracted a total of $430 billion during the COVID refinance boom—a significant sum.
The 9 million who did not extract equity reduced mortgage payments by $24 billion annually. These figures are something I do not expect to see again in my lifetime. Those holding their breath for rates to drop under 3% again should come up for air. Homeowners are disincentivized to sell at current rates, not to mention home prices are AT LEAST 36% higher than before the pandemic. Everyone’s investment strategy is unique, but those who were able to use their home’s equity to invest during the bottom of the market made out well. The period between Q2 of 2020 to Q4 of 2021 will be a reference point for years to come.
Posted originally on the CTH on May 18, 2023 | Sundance
Those of you who are keen financially minded individuals will note exactly what is happening in these recent reports, HOME DEPT HERE – TARGET HERE. Those of you who are retail investors in the stock market might also see the bigger picture.
Home Depot and Target essentially share the same customer base or market audience. They service a larger segment of the American middle class. Both companies are reporting negative financial outcomes as a result of low comparable sales, or same store sales comparisons, to last year. This should not be a surprise, yet Wall Street is seemingly caught off guard.
Right now, we are on the tail end of the massive inflation cycle that took place in 2021 through 2022. Current inflation, as measured by the rate of price increase over the same period last year, is lower.
Now we are starting to see companies reporting sales comparable without the benefit of massive inflation to assist.
Example – when inflation is running at 10%, a company can report 8% sales growth, and everyone smiles. However, the sales growth was created by the inflation. The actual unit sales of goods have declined; the store is reporting higher sales because the prices are higher. When the sales cycle through to lower inflationary comparisons, the drop in unit sales shows up as drops in topline sales. This is the cause of both Target and Home Depot now reporting lower than expected comparable sales versus last year.
In real terms, this is why using sales data as a measure of economic growth is less valuable during periods of high inflation. Significant inflation hides the diminished sales of units, which should be the true measure of sales growth. I have been tracking unit sales as a measure of economic activity, and the truth is that unit sales have been declining since the fourth quarter of 2021.
Inflation was hiding the recession, and as the rate of price increase diminishes, the sales contraction will show the recession. This is what Target and Home Depot are reporting, and we can all expect to see the same over the next 90 days. Retail stocks will drop as the earnings and sales reports are revised down due to lower inflation.
Wall Street Journal – Target sales suffered in the most recent quarter as shoppers stopped splurging as frequently on trendy clothes, home goods and other items that make up the bulk of the retailer’s annual revenue.
Comparable sales, those from stores and digital channels operating for at least 12 months, came in flat for the quarter ended April 29 compared with the same period last year. That is slightly lower than the previous quarter’s 0.7% rise and lower than analysts’ expectations for a 0.2% sales rise in the most recent quarter, according to estimates from FactSet.
Sales of food and beverage, beauty and home essentials such as detergent rose, while demand for apparel, home goods and items such as toys and electronics fell sharply in the most recent quarter as shoppers further pulled back on discretionary spending, said Target executives on a call with analysts Wednesday. The latter discretionary categories make up around 54% of Target’s annual sales, according to financial filings. (read more)
Reuters – Home Depot Inc (HD.N) on Tuesday cut its annual sales forecast and projected a steeper-than-expected decline in profit, stoking fears about inflation-wary consumers trimming discretionary spending as a big earnings week for U.S. retailers rolls out.
Shares of the largest U.S. home improvement chain, which also blamed a wet start to Spring and falling lumber prices for a first-quarter sales miss, tumbled about 4%, while those of smaller rival Lowe’s Cos Inc (LOW.N) dropped nearly 3%.
[…] Demand was weak for discretionary items like patio furniture and grills, as well as appliances, flooring, kitchen and bath, said William Bastek, executive vice president of merchandising at Home Depot.
[…] Home Depot now expects fiscal 2023 comparable sales to fall between 2% and 5%, compared to its prior outlook for nearly flat sales. (read more)
The end of Title 42 has been an absolute disaster. There is no telling how many migrants entered the border last week. These are not simply women and children seeking a new life. The majority of those entering are military-aged MEN who feel entitled to enter America illegally. These are not struggling individuals. American Door Dash drivers were sending food deliveries to the border as over 60,000 migrants lined up around the immediate border area in anticipation of midnight on May 11.
One extremely troubling issue is El Salvador’s recent crackdown on gang crime. The nation locked up all affiliated gang members and saw a drastic decrease in crime. The gang members who escaped had nowhere to go, and no one wanted to infringe on Mexico’s feared cartels. Neighboring Honduras was forced to follow suit after declaring a state of emergency over violent crime in November 2022. Guatemala would be wise to go this route as well, but gangs will be more successful when selling to people using the USD.
Haiti is in ruin and people have been attempting to flee for years. Venezuela’s economy is a glimpse at how well socialism works. Nicaragua and Cuba are also unfortunate examples. There is a reason people want to leave their home countries for a better life. Yet, there are no checks and balances. Every border state has said they’ve been overrun and overpowered by the huge influx of migrants.
An Afghan terrorist on the FBI’s wanted list was recently caught trying to cross the border near San Diego. Do people think this man was alone? On the days leading up to the end of Title 42, 30% of apprehended migrants escaped border custody. These are merely the people who were caught. Chairman Mark Green, R-Tenn. Admitted “we have no idea who is entering this country and being released into the U.S. interior.” Green commented that it is “chilling” to think of the 1.4 million migrants who already evaded Border Patrol under Biden before Title 42 ended.
The US has been compromised. The border is wide open and those who wish to come in without respecting the nation’s asylum laws may do so with little pushback. Our nation is already facing a housing shortage crisis, and cities with leaders who claimed to be refugee friendly are desperately trying to find a way to house and feed all of these people who cannot legally work in America. The problem is going to worsen in the coming weeks once cities realize what they have done by ignoring America’s border and permitting an invasion.
COMMENT: Hello Mr. Armstrong. Thank you for my daily dose of reality. Your blog is one of the last sources of untainted news. I would like to show these pictures my daughter sent me last week. We live in an affluent neighborhood in New Jersey where petty theft does not occur. The news outlets have not mentioned baby formula shortages. I do not believe they are locking up the baby formula to prevent crime. What is going on here?
Thanks — C.G.
REPLY: The supply chain issue has never been resolved. It improved from the days of bare shelves in the grocery stores, but many essentials are stuck in the pipeline. Products that expire will see additional shortages naturally. The supply shortage is fueling inflation and raising rates will not solve the problem.
The Fed thinks that raising rates will curb inflation by raising the cost of borrowing. That is not the problem here. Part of the inflationary crisis we are witnessing is due to demand outweighing available supply across industries. The Fed cannot control government spending nor the money supply. People are viewing the crisis today from the perspective of the ‘60s when it was NOT possible to borrow on T bills. After the collapse of Bretton Woods in ’71, you COULD trade off government debt and that eliminated the idea that it was less inflationary to borrow rather than spend. Artificially low rates that created a borrowing addiction among institutions who believed it was safe to do so.
Powell cannot come out and criticize Congress for their spending. These rate hikes are not good for the supply chain shortages. Inflation went up two years before the Fed even addressed rates due to the supply chain crisis. The central bank only began to hike rates after the war in Ukraine began. Notice how at the last meeting, the FOMC incorporated that they will monitor “international events.” WAR is the primary driver of inflation and there is nothing that the central bank can do to prevent the destruction caused by government and years of poor monetary policy.
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This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
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