The Share Market & the Future


Curiousity-Question

QUESTION: As a small retail investor, what would Marty suggest to invest in if in fact we break the 23000 level on the DOW and we do in fact get the phase transition that he is talking about?  Furthermore, what would he use to profit from it?  Shares in particular stocks, futures contracts or options in the DOW index?  Lastly, if this phase transition does happen, what is the longest time frame that it would last, 12 to 18 months?

Thank Marty for all that he has done for us little guys.  He has really opened my eyes to what is going on in this world.

J

ANSWER: In 2017, I will publish a breakdown of sectors and the differences between them. Keep in mind that the bulk of the retail public are not yet back in the market. The majority keeps saying how overvalued the market is, yet a substantial amount of people are all looking to buy the dip. Trump will be very good for the US markets and economy. Reducing taxes will bring capital home and it has already resulted in a new 13-year high in consumer confidence. That is the key to the market going into 2018.

The reflection point that will tip the scales to extremely bullish will turn on confidence. What MUST BE UNDERSTOOD here is we have two possible patterns: (1) We leave 2016 as the intraday high temporarily and back off, moving to retest support into 2018, and then rally in a major breakout into 2020, or (2) we press immediately higher and complete the rally by 2018 followed by a harder crash and burn.

These are the two possible paths that are coming up and it will all depend upon the actions and tone we set in January. We will prepare a very important special report on this topic.

A Loser’s Malice: What’s Behind Obama’s Attacks on Putin


When your domestic policies are in total disarray and the voters have denounced your policies in the last election blame someone else like Putin, what else can you do when the voters don’t like what you have done.

Fanatic Muslims Are the Enemy: Investigate All Leaders!


We are not at war with all Muslims but we are at war with Islam; just like we were not at war with all Germans in WW II but we were at war with Germany. We have exactly the same situation today only with a ‘religion’ not a country so it makes it hard to combat unless the cause can be discussed.

The Real Crisis Trump Will Face With Trade


world-trade

The entire problem with trade and jobs has been its focus on only the job and not the consumer. David Ricardo developed his principle that nations should pursue their own competitive advantages. In other words, just because I might want to be a brain surgeon does not mean that (1) I might be very good at it, and (2) that I am entitled to state protectionism to prevent others coming into the field who could expose me as second-rate.

When the collapse of socialism is in motion, people demand state benefits and assume they can just legally take. Governments have been in serious trouble and are raising taxes to try to make ends meet, but at the same time, their economies are moving into sharp declines. The greater the instability in Europe and Asia, not to mention emerging markets, the stronger the dollar becomes.

282-total-us-bal-of-trade

348-b-us-bal-trade-usTrade has always been misunderstood for the two primary elements are jobs and currency. If you do not comprehend both elements, then you cannot properly manage trade. It is always a great topic to expose for votes during elections, but quite honestly, there is nothing any politician has ever been able to accomplish but confusion and chaos. The entire protectionism of the Great Depression was set off by (1) economic implosion in Europe reduced sales to Europe, and (2) the rise in the dollar reduced the competitiveness of US goods and lessened the cost of imports. The US entered a trade deficit with the rest of America because of the strong dollar.

$19002140

The dollar soared in value as European countries began to default on their sovereign debts. Trump will face the same crisis once again. One solution will be to index tariffs to the dollar. Thus, a 10% tariff across the board would be plausible on the trade issue. However, the danger of protectionism will emerge if you pick and choose between products and fail to understand the link to the currency.

The left socialists are out in force to say Trump’s 10% on time tax on foreign held money by U.S. corporations will do nothing for the economy. EBay was looking to take over two companies to expand domestically. They had to decline because the expansion meant they would have to bring cash in from overseas and the added tax would make the deal unattractive. Yes, some companies will bring back cash and pay out dividends and buy back their own shares. Trump should also eliminate the dividend tax; thus the money would go to shareholders who would pay their one-time tax on income. This will be a far better stimulus plan than the Fed handing money to bankers in hopes that they will lend it out, which never happens. Small businesses are turned down by the bankers for more than 80% of all loans. The banks do not invest in innovation that is the mother of jobs.

think-out-of-boxTrump should impose a 10% tariff on everything, and then index it to the US dollar index. That will avoid a protectionism crisis and deal with the largest influence being the currency. The entire reason why Germany wanted the euro was to eliminate currency risk for German companies so they would not need to worry about currency swings.

We have to start thinking out of the box. What politicians have been doing for decades is always listen to only academics who never think out the box as a rule.

An Irreversible Error: German Birth Rate Soars for the First Time in 33 Years from Impact of Muslim Women


refugees

The irreversible error of the refugee crisis has resulted in the birth rate suddenly soaring in Germany for the first time in 33 years. The refugees are altering Germany in a dramatic way. In 2015, the number of births per woman rose from 1.4 children to 1.5 children. One in five newborns had a mother who was born abroad, according to the Federal Statistical Office. The impact of this is now transforming refugees into migrants whose children are now German. This is altering everything within Germany. The Protestant Revolution transformed the majority from Catholic to Protestant. Will Germany, 30 years from now, be Muslim? Interesting evolutionary process.

Is 100% Of “US Warming” Due To NOAA Data Tampering?


Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Tony Heller via RealClimateScience.com,

Climate Central just ran this piece, which the Washington Post picked up on. They claimed the US was “overwhelmingly hot” in 2016, and temperatures have risen 1,5°F since the 19th century.

The U.S. Has Been Overwhelmingly Hot This Year | Climate Central

The first problem with their analysis is that the US had very little hot weather in 2016. The percentage of hot days was below average, and ranked 80th since 1895. Only 4.4% of days were over 95°F, compared with the long term average of 4.9%. Climate Central is conflating mild temperatures with hot ones.

They also claim US temperatures rose 1.5°F since the 19th century, which is what NOAA shows.

Climate at a Glance | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)

The problem with the NOAA graph is that it is fake data. NOAA creates the warming trend by altering the data. The NOAA raw data shows no warming over the past century

The adjustments being made are almost exactly 1.5°F, which is the claimed warming in the article.

The adjustments correlate almost perfectly with atmospheric CO2. NOAA is adjusting the data to match global warming theory. This is known as PBEM (Policy Based Evidence Making.)

The hockey stick of adjustments since 1970 is due almost entirely to NOAA fabricating missing station data. In 2016, more than 42% of their monthly station data was missing, so they simply made it up. This is easy to identify because they mark fabricated temperatures with an “E” in their database.

When presented with my claims of fraud, NOAA typically tries to arm wave it away with these two complaints.

  1. They use gridded data and I am using un-gridded data.
  2. They “have to” adjust the data because of Time Of Observation Bias and station moves.

Both claims are easily debunked. The only effect that gridding has is to lower temperatures slightly. The trend of gridded data is almost identical to the trend of un-gridded data.

Time of Observation Bias (TOBS) is a real problem, but is very small. TOBS is based on the idea that if you reset a min/max thermometer too close to the afternoon maximum, you will double count warm temperatures (and vice-versa if thermometer is reset in the morning.) Their claim is that during the hot 1930’s most stations reset their thermometers in the afternoon.

This is easy to test by using only the stations which did not reset their thermometers in the afternoon during the 1930’s. The pattern is almost identical to that of all stations. No warming over the past century. Note that the graph below tends to show too much warming due to morning TOBS.

NOAA’s own documents show that the TOBS adjustment is small (0.3°F) and goes flat after 1990.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/ushcn/ts.ushcn_anom25_diffs_pg.gif

Gavin Schmidt at NASA explains very clearly why the US temperature record does not need to be adjusted.

 You could throw out 50 percent of the station data or more, and you’d get basically the same answers.

One recent innovation is the set up of a climate reference network alongside the current stations so that they can look for potentially serious issues at the large scale – and they haven’t found any yet.

NASA – NASA Climatologist Gavin Schmidt Discusses the Surface Temperature Record

NOAA has always known that the US is not warming.

U.S. Data Since 1895 Fail To Show Warming Trend – NYTimes.com

All of the claims in the Climate Central article are bogus. The US is not warming and 2016 was not a hot year in the US. It was a very mild year.