Monthly Archives: May 2019

May 29 2019

Steve Bannon Discusses EU Election Victories and President Trump’s Strategic Visit to Japan…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on May 28, 2019 by 

Steve Bannon is in Paris, France as the nationalist wins in the EU parliamentary election results fill the headlines.  Additionally, Bannon gives his opinion on the strategic importance of President Trump’s recent state visit to Japan.

.

“Economic security is national security“… I would emphasize the strategy within the multi-layered geopolitical economic reset is all President Trump.  The restoration of a sovereign U.S. economy, and the increases in Main Street American wealth, is Donald Trump’s primary agenda item.  The President listens to advisers on a variety of economic and trade matters, but the America-First policy strategy is all his.

May 29 2019

Trey Gowdy Discusses Sanctimonious James Comey…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on May 28, 2019 by 

Now that we are aware Trey Gowdy had written a letter to AG Eric Holder about the DOJ assembling research files on political targets in 2012, and then seemingly did nothing about it, his downstream commentary is even more, well, interesting.

In this interview, Trey Gowdy is discussing the current self-interested positioning of former FBI Director James Comey; and contrasts Comey’s current sanctimony against the reality of what FBI Special Agent Peter Strzok expressed.

May 29 2019

SSCI Vice-Chairman Mark Warner Tells Intelligence Community to Defy Barr and Democrats Will Protect Them…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on May 28, 2019 by 

All of the same deep state actors/manipulators keep surfacing and resurfacing, like a game of whac-a-mole, as sunlight gets closer to revealing their corrupt behavior.

In the most recent example the familiar Senate Intelligence Committee Vice-Chairman Mark Warner pops his head-up to write a letter to the intelligence community telling them to defy the executive branch declassification directive, and turn to democrats in the legislative branch to defend them:

(Via AP) […] Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia, in a letter obtained by The Associated Press, said he fears Trump is giving Barr “the right to selectively declassify certain information for purposes of political gain.” He asked that the leaders of the nation’s spy agencies contact lawmakers if Barr’s investigation threatens their work.  (read more)

Laughably, predictably, and certainly not coincidentally, former FBI Director James Comey jumps quick to the typeset and writes a supportive op-ed for the Washinton Post:

As director, I was determined that the work would be done carefully, professionally and discreetly. We were just starting. If there was nothing to it, we didn’t want to smear Americans. If there was something to it, we didn’t want to let corrupt Americans know we were onto them. So, we kept it secret. That’s how the FBI approaches all counterintelligence cases.

Blah, blah, blah… squeal, squeal, squeal.

[…] We investigated. We didn’t gather information about the campaign’s strategy. We didn’t “spy” on anyone’s campaign. We investigated to see whether it was true that Americans associated with the campaign had taken the Russians up on any offer of help. By late October, the investigators thought they had probable cause to get a federal court order to conduct electronic surveillance of a former Trump campaign adviser named Carter Page. Page was no longer with the campaign, but there was reason to believe he was acting as an agent of the Russian government.  (read more)

So the most ‘competent’ investigative unit in the U.S. apparatus, had “reason to believe” Carter Page was an agent of the Russian government (he wasn’t/isn’t) and yet couldn’t figure that out after six months of investigative review?

That’s his story and Comey is sticking to it…  “By-the-book” etc.

Ridiculous.

Embarrassing.

And let us not forget, the FBI -led by Christopher Wray- is still fighting to keep the memos written by James Comey hidden from public review:

(Source pdf)

Following the conclusion of the Mueller probe, FBI Agent David Archey was moved. Effective March 8, 2019, Archey became head of the Richmond, VA, FBI field office. (link) Due to the corrupt nature of the special counsel, this is somewhat concerning. I digress…

The first three pages of the filing consist of David Archey explaining to the court that some of the material can be released, but other material must be withheld. He then goes on to reference two prior sealed attachments outlined as “Exhibit A” and “Exhibit B”.

“Exhibit A” is a filing from the FBI on January 31st, 2018, essentially supporting an earlier “in camera ex parte declaration” requesting continuance of a prior court order to keep the background material sealed from public view. In essence, the FBI didn’t want the public to know what was/is contained within the Comey memos (including the scale thereof).

“Exhibit B” is where the action is.

This is the original declaration outlining to the court on October 13th, 2017, why the Comey memos must be sealed. It is inside this exhibit where we discover there are many more memos than previously understood, and the content of those memos is far more exhaustive because James Comey documented the FBI investigation.

In essence Comey created these memos to cover his ass. (pg 13):

FBI Agent Archey then goes on to explain what is inside the memos: It is in this section where we discover that Comey made notes of his meetings and conversations with investigators.

Along with writing notes of the meetings and conversations, apparently Comey also made notes of the sources and methods associated with the investigation. Why would Comey generate classified information in these notes (sources and methods) unless he was just covering his ass because he knew the investigation itself was a risk…

The content of the memos seems rather exhaustive; it appears Comey is keeping a diary for use in the event this operation went sideways. (page #14, exhibit B)

All of those investigative elements would likely be contained in official FBI files and notes by the investigative agents. There is no need for a contemporaneous personal account of meeting content unless Comey was constructing memos for his own protection. These memos appear to be motivated by the same mindset that caused Susan Rice to generate her email to self on inauguration day.

In the next section FBI Agent David Archey explains the scale of the memos. There are obviously far more than previously discussed or disclosed publicly. Additionally, look carefully at the way the second part is worded.

Archey is saying Comey’s written recollections should be withheld because it might affect the testimony of people familiar with the “memorialized conversations”. (page #15, Exhibit B)

This is an October 2017 filing, Comey was fired May 9th. FBI Agent Archey is outlining Trump as the target who might have adjusted his testimony. Again, more evidence of the special counsel focus being motivated by the obstruction case they were hoping to build. [Reminder, Comey was still FBI director at the time these memos were written]

The next section gets to the heart of why the FBI wants to keep the Comey memos hidden and not released.

In this section Archey outlines how FBI Director James Comey wrote down who the sources were; what code-names were assigned; how those confidential sources engaged with FISA coverage initiated by the FBI; what foreign governments were assisting with their effort; and what the plans were for the investigation.

Again, why memorialize all of this classified information unless the Comey memos were intended as CYA protection for himself?

The good news is that AG William Barr can declassify the Comey Memos.  We now know there is a set of documents, a diary of sorts, that could be released.

The Mueller investigation is over.  If the FBI was running an honest and genuine investigation; what do they have to fear from the release of the Comey Memos now that the investigation is over.

Here’s the full filing:

May 29 2019

Home Safe From Japan – Marine One Landing…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on May 28, 2019 by 

Excellent video of President Trump and First Lady Melania returning to the White House following a three-day state visit in Japan.   The video is even better if you play “Ride of the Valkyries” in the background:

May 29 2019

Christopher Steele Refuses to be Questioned by DOJ Investigator John Durham…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on May 28, 2019 by 

Reuters is reporting the DNC paid Dossier author, Christopher Steele, is refusing to be questioned by DOJ investigator John Durham.  This follows a pattern of Chris Steele refusing to talk to congress and also refusing to talk to Inspector General Michael Horowitz.  Obviously, he has multiple somethings to hide….

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The former British spy who produced a dossier describing alleged links between Donald Trump and Russia will not cooperate with a prosecutor assigned by U.S. Attorney General William Barr to review how the investigations of Trump and his 2016 election campaign began, a source with knowledge of the situation said.

Christopher Steele, a former Russia expert for the British spy agency MI6, will not answer questions from prosecutor John Durham, named by Barr to examine the origins of the investigations into Trump and his campaign team, said the source close to Steele’s London-based private investigation firm, Orbis Business Intelligence.

Trump has given Barr broad authority to declassify intelligence materials related to the investigations. Last week Trump ordered the heads of U.S. spy and law enforcement agencies to cooperate with Durham.  (read more)

May 29 2019

MAGAnomics – Consumer Confidence Jumps in May – Main Street Defies Wall St…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on May 28, 2019 by 

Despite the professional doomsayer predictions from the professional financial class of Wall Street investment punditry, Main Street is upbeat and consumer confidence is strong.

Tariff-Man Winning

“Consumer Confidence posted another gain in May and is now back to levels seen last Fall when the Index was hovering near 18-year highs,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “The increase in the Present Situation Index was driven primarily by employment gains.

Consumers expect the economy to continue growing at a solid pace in the short-term, and despite weak retail sales in April, these high levels of confidence suggest no significant pullback in consumer spending in the months ahead.” (more)

Never is the disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street more visible than in the predictions -vs- reality for the growing/strengthening American middle-class.

The professional financial punditry can’t explain it.  Flummoxed academics run around bumping into walls amid economic numbers that continue to defy expectations.  All caused by a simple return to common sense ‘America First’ MAGAnomics.

Low unemployment (3.6%); wages growing (+3.2%); inflation stable (1.6%). These measures all have a cumulative impact on paycheck-to-paycheck Americans. Prices for durable goods are stable and wage growth is exceeding inflation. That means more disposable income in the middle-class…DUH. Which, when combined with the increased pay from lower middle-class tax rates, is exactly the intended outcome of MAGAnomics.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Consumer confidence jumped in May as households grew more upbeat about the labor market, suggesting the economy remained on solid ground despite signs that activity was slowing after being temporarily boosted by exports and a build-up of inventories.

The surge in confidence reported by the Conference Board on Tuesday came despite an escalation in tensions in the 10-month trade war between the United States and China, which sparked a sharp sell-off on Wall Street. It mirrors strength exhibited by another sentiment surveys in the middle of this month. (more)

May 29 2019

The “Secret Research Project” – an IRS List, an NSA Database, and Resulting “Files” on Americans…


Re-Posted from the conservative Tree House on May 28, 2019 by 

A carefully redacted footnote within a report by FISA Court Presiding Judge Rosemary Collyer has always appeared to be a clue to a domestic surveillance program.  Now details behind the redactions tell a concerning story.

A brief refresher is needed for those new to the story. In April 2017 Judge Collyer wrote a highly critical FISA Court opinion following discoveries by Director Admiral Rogers of government contractors accessing the NSA database, and extracting illegal search results from the electronic records of every American.

The scale of abuse was incredible [SEE HERE] and the surveillance issues had been covered up for years.  Collyer cited the Obama administration as having “an institutional lack of candor” in their responses to her and the FISA court.  The judge focused her criticism after a review of the period 2012 through April 2016.

Using the non-compliant admissions by NSA Director Mike Rogers and the results of the compliance audit, Judge Collyer used the period of November 2015 through April 2016 to gauge the scale of abuse at 85 percent. Eighty-five percent of all database search queries were unlawful, and she extended her analysis to say:

“while the government reports it is unable to provide a reliable estimate of [these non lawful searches] since 2012, there is no apparent reason to believe the November 2015 [to] April 2016 period coincided with an unusually high error rate”.

Also this very important:

“many of these non-compliant queries involved the use of the same identifiers over different date ranges.”

Eight-five percent of all use/extraction of the NSA database was unlawful; and they were searching many of the same Americans (“identifier”), repeatedly, over different dates. This means specific Americans were being targeted, tracked and monitored… unlawfully.

Within the 99-page opinion from Judge Rosemary Collyer  she noted none of this FISA-702 database abuse was accidental. In a key footnote on page 87: Collyer outlined the years of unlawful violations was the result of “deliberate decisionmaking“:

This specific footnote, is key to peeling back the onion.

Note the phrase: “([redacted] access to FBI systems was the subject of an interagency memorandum of understanding entered into [redacted])”.  This sentence exposes an internal decision; withheld from congress and the FISA court by the Obama administration; and outlines a process for access and distribution of surveillance data. Note: “no notice of this practice was given to the FISC until 2016“.

We feel confident we’ve now found the source of the “memorandum of understanding” that lies at the heart of the issue [Raw Doc Guidelines].

In March 2012 the Obama administration through Attorney General Eric Holder made changes to the exploitation of intelligence databases as noted in this Wall Street Journal article later in the year:

(December 2012 – WSJ) Top U.S. intelligence officials gathered in the White House Situation Room in March to debate a controversial proposal. Counterterrorism officials wanted to create a government dragnet, sweeping up millions of records about U.S. citizens—even people suspected of no crime.

Not everyone was on board. “This is a sea change in the way that the government interacts with the general public,” Mary Ellen Callahan, chief privacy officer of the Department of Homeland Security, argued in the meeting, according to people familiar with the discussions.

A week later, the attorney general signed the changes into effect.

The rules now allow the little-known National Counterterrorism Center to examine the government files of U.S. citizens for possible criminal behavior, even if there is no reason to suspect them. That is a departure from past practice, which barred the agency from storing information about ordinary Americans unless a person was a terror suspect or related to an investigation.

Now, NCTC can copy entire government databases—flight records, casino-employee lists, the names of Americans hosting foreign-exchange students and many others. The agency has new authority to keep data about innocent U.S. citizens for up to five years, and to analyze it for suspicious patterns of behavior. Previously, both were prohibited. Data about Americans “reasonably believed to constitute terrorism information” may be permanently retained.

The changes also allow databases of U.S. civilian information to be given to foreign governments for analysis of their own. In effect, U.S. and foreign governments would be using the information to look for clues that people might commit future crimes.  (more)

The 2012 changes, instituted by Eric Holder, permitted files of specific Americans to be generated under the auspices of potential terror threats.  The NSA databases could be exploited by the National Counterterrorism Center to extract content that would be contained within these files on targeted Americans.

Keep in mind this is early 2012, John Brennan is Deputy National Security Advisor and Asst. to President Obama for Homeland Security.

When Attorney General Eric Holder empowered the National Counterterrorism Center with this new authority, the office assigned to the data-collection was the Terrorist Threat Integration Center (TTIC).  The founder of the TTIC was John Brennan:

On 1 May 2003, the Terrorist Threat Integration Center (TTIC) opened its doors. Led by its first Director, John Brennan, TTIC filled its ranks with approximately three dozen detailees from across the US Government (USG) and was mandated to integrate CT capabilities and missions across the government. (link)

Also note the date of this DOJ Memorandum is March 2012:

Under the new rules issued in March, the National Counterterrorism Center, known as NCTC, can obtain almost any database the government collects that it says is “reasonably believed” to contain “terrorism information.”  (link)

The March 2012 date is right before the IRS scandal hit the headlines.

The IRS targeting scandal is where the term “Secret Research Project” originated as a description from the Obama team. It involved the U.S. Department of Justice under Eric Holder and the FBI under Robert Mueller. It never made sense why Eric Holder requested over 1 million tax records via CD ROM, until overlaying the timeline of the FISA abuse:

The IRS sent the FBI “21 disks constituting a 1.1 million page database of information from 501(c)(4) tax exempt organizations, to the Federal Bureau of Investigation.” The transaction occurred in October 2010 (link)

Why disks? Why send a stack of DISKS to the DOJ and FBI when there’s a pre-existing financial crimes unit within the IRS. All of the evidence within this sketchy operation came directly to the surface in spring 2012.

Here’s how it looks:

♦ In 2010 Eric Holder asked the IRS to send him the records of 501(c) non profit groups and individuals representing conservative voters. [LINK] Lois Lerner sent the DOJ 1.1 million pages of 501(c)(4) tax filing data. Including a very specific set of “33 Schedule B attachment files”. The Schedule B’s were specific to Large Conservative 501(c)(4) groups operating and organized to oppose the agenda of President Obama. The Schedule B’s include the donor lists of specific people and sub-groups attached to the 501(c)(4).

The IRS sent the FBI “21 disks constituting a 1.1 million page database of information from 501(c)(4) tax exempt organizations, to the Federal Bureau of Investigation.” The transaction occurred in October 2010 (link)

♦ In 2012 Eric Holder authorizes the use of government databases to search records of Americans and assemble “files” on potential targets. [Link] “The agency has new authority to keep data about innocent U.S. citizens for up to five years, and to analyze it for suspicious patterns of behavior.”

♦ In the period of 2012 through April 2016, According to FISA Judge Rosemary Collyer, there were tens of thousands of illegal (“non-compliant”) search queries of the NSA database targeting Americans.  The search results were unlawfully “extracted” to unknown entities.  Eighty-five out of every hundred searches were illegal (85% non-compliant rate).

Consider purposeful actions, as a political targeting operation, by weaponizing the systems of government.  Steps:

  • First, identify the targets (IRS Database).
  • Second, research the targets (NSA Database).
  • Third assemble files on the targets (DOJ Authorization).
  • Fourth use the files to leverage/destroy your opposition.

We now have evidence of the first three steps; and my hunch is if we apply hindsight a lot of unusual activity will now make sense.  We have been living inside the fourth step for a few years.  We noticed the consequences… but we only had suspicions, until now.

Fusion GPS was not hired to research Trump, the intelligence community was already doing surveillance and spy operations. The intelligence community needed Fusion GPS to give them a plausible justification for already existing surveillance and spy operations.

Fusion-GPS gave the Obama administration the justification they needed for a FISA warrant with the Steele Dossier. Ultimately that’s why the Steele Dossier is so important; without it, the DOJ and FBI are naked with their surveillance and database abuse.

At 12:15pm on January 20th, 2017, Obama’s outgoing National Security Advisor Susan Rice wrote a memo-to-self.  Many people have called this her “CYA” memo, from the position that Susan Rice was protecting herself from consequences if the scheme against President Trump was discovered.  Here’s the email:

On January 5, following a briefing by IC leadership on Russian hacking during the 2016 Presidential election, President Obama had a brief follow-on conversation with FBI Director Jim Comey and Deputy Attorney General Sally Yates in the Oval Office. Vice President Biden and I were also present.

President Obama began the conversation by stressing his continued commitment to ensuring that every aspect of this issue is handled by the Intelligence and law enforcement communities “by the book“.

The President stressed that he is not asking about, initiating or instructing anything from a law enforcement perspective. He reiterated that our law enforcement team needs to proceed as it normally would by the book.

From a national security perspective, however, President Obama said he wants to be sure that, as we engage with the incoming team, we are mindful to ascertain if there is any reason that we cannot share information fully as it relates to Russia.

[Redacted Classified Section of Unknown length]

The President asked Comey to inform him if anything changes in the next few weeks that should affect how we share classified information with the incoming team. Comey said he would.

Susan Rice ~ (pdf link)

May 28 2019

Two Great Songs about “Combat” the first from Sailor Jerri Hallelujah (two versions) and the second from Mitch Rossells A Soldier’s Memoir, if you haven’t been in Combat, and survived, you will not understand the power of this music.


The First from Sailor Jerri:

Hallelujah Veterans Version, Original

Published on Apr 4, 2017

It’s rough. But I wanted it up My rewrite of Hallelujah “Veterans Version” Yes we are working on getting it recorded for everyone who has asked. Thank you for your support and for supporting the men and women in uniform. **yes the lyrics are protected under copy-write

Hallelujah Veterans Version, Final

Published on May 10, 2017

Mitch Rossell – A Soldier’s Memoir (Official Music Video)

Mitch Rossell

Published on Jun 19, 2014
May 28 2019

World View v Domestic & Why It Has Been Always Wrong


Armstrong Economics Blog/Foreign Exchange

Re-Posted May 28, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Mr Armstrong, I want to thank you for I listened to the forecasts of analysts who said Europe and Emerging Markets were the best places to invest because the US was overpriced and would crash. I was introduced to you by a friend. I listened. I cut my losses and switched to the domestic market. Your analysis saved my future.

I cannot thank you enough.

HA

REPLY: I was a hedge fund manager. I used to manage a fund for Deutsche Bank (Track Record). The reason analysis is so bad is because of regulation. We have the SEC & CFTC and the regulations between them are incompatible. You could never have a fund domestically where you would actually hire a fund manager who made that decision for you. Because of the regulation, you had fragmentation. Funds that sold Munis, other tech, others IPOs, high growth, etc., etc. etc. There was no domestic fund that would make those decisions for you because there was no single entity that served as the regulator as is the case outside the United States. Too many chiefs and no Indians, as they say.

The offshore hedge fund began, not a real hedge, but as a fund where the manager made the decision and could invest in anything. Today, hedge funds have lost their way. The idea that they would offer an alternative strategy that would move opposite to standard funds was really a sales job. Often, hedge funds have not performed because of biased domestic views. That was NEVER the way I managed the fund. I was named “Hedge Fund Manager of the Year” back in 1998 because my strategy was to make that decision on a global scale of what to be in and out of. I was not trying to lose money deliberately as a hedge when the market rallied and I saw its mirror image. I never got that idea of a hedge fund nonsense. My job was to pick the winners on a global scale and avoid the danger areas like Russian back in 1998.

If we look at the world in REAL VALUE terms, that means we MUST look at everything filtered through currency. Here is our index of the world. We take Europe and Asia, combine the indices and then replot them in dollars. This clearly shows that we ABSOLUTELY MUST include currency into the analysis. We can see that the US share market has dramatically outperformed everything else in the world.

I had to always consider geopolitical risks. Knowing when there was a risk of war or political uprising was important. Understanding the trends in weather was critical, as was evident from the Great Depression. Even keeping an eye on earthquakes and correlating that to the global economy was also obvious from hist – e.g. the 1923 Japan Earthquake and the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake that eventually contributed to the creation of the Federal Reserve. The realization that the world economy was dynamic meant we had to respect the various different influences each factor played in the outcome of the whole.

Yet, none of this would be possible without also considering capital flows and currency movements. The currency became the means for capital to vote on a global scale as to who it trusted and who it did not. Here we can see that the British pound reached $9.97 in 1864 against the dollar. It fell to $1.03 in 1985. The trend of the currency cannot be ignored.

Here are the share markets based in euros. All peaked in 1999 to 2000, except Spain which entered the euro late. How any analyst could recommend Europe two years ago was just nuts. This demonstrates that they do not understand international capital flows or the importance of the currency in making such forecasts.

 

Now, look at the European share markets that are NOT in the Eurozone. They have all made record highs. The difference has been the currency and regulations pouring out of Brussels with self-interest in maintaining the European Project, even though it has failed.

This is not my opinion v everyone else. This is simply looking at the facts, not propaganda, and letting the fact lead to the conclusion.

May 28 2019

Fannie & Freddie to go Public in 2020?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Interest Rates

Re-Posted May 28, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Hi Martin ! always wondered What would be the outcome of Fannie/ Freddie going private ? they have been trying this for years, but now looks like they are giving it another try and may be successful under the guise of ” protect the taxpayer ” …. what do you think will be the ramifications especially for real estate REITS and MREITS as well as homeownership going forward .

Thank you

JD

ANSWER: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are two companies that are in the longest conservatorship perhaps on record. Because the law governing these agencies is separate from banking conservatorship law, judges have largely done nothing about Fannie and Freddie shareholder complaints to date. The government’s 2012 net worth took all of the money that they said was worthless back in 2008-2011 that was on the balance sheets. Keep in mind that FHFA was acting as conservator when this was all agreed.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will be allowed to retain capital, but the Senior preferred securities purchase agreement will be amended and the lawsuits will be settled in order for the companies to go to the public markets and raise new money via selling new equity to investors. They would like to do an IPO by 2020. After the balance of the senior preferred gets written off, the warrants will be exercised and the junior preferred will likely equitize some or all of their shares to help facilitate the recapitalization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. There will be risks that include higher capital requirements, a shorter timeline to recapitalization, more CRT/STACR deals, more regulation and/or lower guarantee fees.

Moreover, we face a period where the interest rate is going to enter a major divergence. Central banks will be forced to create interest rate caps on sovereign debt, assuming people will buy them at these low rates of under 3%. This all hinges upon confidence. When we begin to see economic stress in the sovereign markets, such as in Europe with the ECB unable to stop QE, sovereign rates will become merely artificial and irrelevant. The ECB moved to negative interest rates but that did not lower private interest rates.

Expect divergences as we move forward into the next cycle which will peak in 2024. Expect wild movements ahead on the yield curve as well.