Biden Solution to High Retail Food Prices, Eat Generics and Store Brands


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 28, 2022 | Sundance

CTH has covered the origin of food inflation since we first raised the alarms in the spring of 2020.  A confluence of events starting with the fracturing of the food supply chain (shutting down restaurants, hospitality venues, schools, cafeterias, etc), created the initial major problem.  Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) sold at retail stores could not keep up with demand after 50% of the food supply system was shut down.

Within the U.S. retail food supply chain (350+ million people), manufacturing CPG products relies on a system of staying one to two harvest cycles ahead of demand.  However, when restaurants and fresh food venues were closed, very quickly frozen, bulk stored and siloed U.S. food storage systems, the storage needed for CPG products, were emptied.

Long after the time when all food distribution was reopened, the shortages of CPG products continued. You saw the result with empty shelves at the supermarket.  It takes a long time (years) for those inventories to refill.

We warned of this in 2020 and then followed the predictable outcome in 2021 and 2022.

When Joe Biden then shut down the U.S. energy production system in early 2021, the massive increases in energy costs -and the shortages of natural gas- became fuel on the inflationary fire of CPG goods.  Again, in October 2021 CTH noted that retail prices were going to rise quickly, and they did.

Throughout 2022 food prices have risen dramatically as the food distribution and processing system was now under pressure from all sides.  The shortage of inputs (to refill food storage and warehousing needs) combined with the much higher costs to generate those inputs -the direct result of the exploding energy costs- created massive inflation pressure.  The pricing result we are seeing now (third wave of food inflation) is exactly what we have stated, discussed and predicted for more than two years.

While all food costs are skyrocketing, the prices for manufactured or processed food are much higher than the price increases for fresh food.

While both fresh and CPG foods have risen in price due to energy costs, the processing of food uses more energy… and that energy comes at a higher price…. so the CPG inflation is much higher than the fresh half of the supply chain.

In essence, the CPG goods carry higher farming costs plus much higher manufacturing costs.

For those who say, ‘fresh food is healthier‘, you are correct.  However, let me also remind you that we cannot feed 350 million people with fresh food alone – and simultaneously export billions of tons of bulk food products like grain, corn and soybeans.

The U.S. food distribution system needs processed food for retail restaurants, cafeteria, lunchrooms and grocery stores.  [Ex. Italian restaurants will not start making pasta sauce from tomatoes, and if they did you likely couldn’t afford to eat there.]

So here comes Joe Biden, without a clue in the world of what I just described above.  And his food inflation solution?…. well, you just have to hear it yourself to see it.  WATCH (01:35, prompted): 

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[Wall Street Journal] – […]  The personal saving rate, a measure of how much money people have left over after spending and taxes, fell to 3.1% from 3.4% in August. It is down from 7.9% a year ago as consumers tap their rainy-day funds.

U.S. credit-card balances hit $916 billion in September, returning to prepandemic levels, credit-reporting firm Equifax Inc. said. Balances are up 9% from January and about 23% higher than their pandemic low in April 2021.

A closely watched reading of underlying inflationary pressures, meanwhile, picked up last month and remained near a four-decade high. When stripped of volatile food and energy prices, the PCE price index strengthened to a 5.1% year-over-year increase—the strongest pace since March.

Friday’s report comes on the heels of other data showing consumers’ momentum weakened in the summer months. Consumer spending accounts for roughly two-thirds of total U.S. economic output. (read more)

Nigel Farage on Britain


Armstrong Economics Blog/BRITAIN Re-Posted Oct 29, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Climate Change War – US v Russia


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Oct 27, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

As senior U.S. military officers deployed to NATO’s front line against Russia on the border with Ukraine have boasted that they are ready to join the fight. This provoked a response from Russia’s ambassador to the United States told Newsweek that such a move would bring about catastrophic ramifications. The commanders of the U.S. Army 101st Airborne Division who are now stationed just a few miles from the Romanian border with Ukraine are also making comments that they were ready to cross over in response to any escalation or attack on NATO.

This is all calling into question who the hell is the real commander and chief? President Joe Biden has repeatedly stated he was not going to send U.S. soldiers into Ukraine itself. The US has NOT sent troops to the borders of NATO since World War II. The National Security Council Strategic Communications Coordinator John Kirby rushed to then say that “nothing has changed about the commander-in-chief’s decision that there will be no American troops fighting inside Ukraine.” This is raising serious concerns about who is really in charge and do we have a military so eager to jump in that we end up in WWIII because of all of this nonsense.

Russian Ambassador Anatoly Antonov said, “we have already officially pointed out to high-ranking members of the US Government that such bravura statements by the U.S. Army commanders are inadmissible.” He further warned that Moscow would take these comments seriously. Behind the curtain, there is serious concern that Biden is just a puppet and has no idea that his administration is pushing the world to WWIII.

Antonov added: “We are not going to tolerate a situation where military threats are mounting on Russian borders… Direct participation of the U.S. military in the fighting will lead to disastrous consequences. I am convinced that further aggravation of the situation is not in Washington’s interests.”

There is absolutely no reason for the US to have troops stationed on the border. Russia is not interested in invading NATO and they too realize what that would mean. Stationing the Hard Rock Company, 1st Battalion, 502nd Infantry Regiment, 2nd Brigade Combat Team, 101st Airborne Division (Air Assault), only increases the chance of war just like in Vietnam. This has been the first time in nearly 80 years that troops have been sent in this manner.

The Russian ambassador Antonov warned that “Washington is becoming increasingly involved in the conflict in Ukraine, turning the country’s territory into a battlefield with Russia.” If Russia sent nukes to Venezuela or stationed troops in Mexico, I seriously doubt the US would stand by silently.

Our War Model globally turned up in 2014 as I laid out at the 2011 World Economic Conference. I have warned that history will call this the Climate Change War. The Biden Administration is being run by climate zealots telling us our pets have to eat bugs along with us and they want to impose a federal tax to even have a pet of several thousand dollars to reoccur annually no less. These zealots want to wipe out Russia because they produce energy and that is 50% of the GDP. Having Ukrainians die for climate change is no problem – there are too many people anyway.

Even the Cuban Missile Crisis on a 51.6-year calculation turned back up on May 4th, 2014. The next 8.6-year wave will be 2023.008 which will be January 3rd, 2023. The peak of that wave will then be 2027.308  which is April 9th, 2027. These people have reignited the U.S.-Russia rivalry intensifying to levels not seen since the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. Zelensky is sacrificing his country for money. You do not put your entire nation at risk for a strip of land that has always been occupied by Russians for centuries. He takes his orders from the Biden Administration and it is public knowledge that he was told not to negotiate for peace.

These Climate Change Zealots are bringing the world to complete disaster over total nonsense when Climate Change has been a natural cycle for millions of years. They ignore the history of the planet past 1850 because they want to simply blame everything on the Industrial Revolution. They have confused pollution with climate change and will not address that there have been warming periods and ice ages without people driving their SUVs.

The military always wants war. They get to play with all their cool stuff. They have been using Ukraine to study Russia’s tactics and weapons. This has been a fantastic learning experience for the military. The problem this time, one Russian nuclear sub can surface offshore and fire 60 nukes and we will not be able to shoot them all down.

Joe Biden Claims Current Gas Prices Lower Than When He Took Office, States Falsely Gas Was Over $5/Gal When He Was Inaugurated


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 27, 2022 | sundance 

Will big tech and social media remove Joe Biden for violations of misinformation, disinformation and malinformation?  Considering his remarks today, they should.

Reading from a teleprompter loaded with lies about the economy, Joe Biden stunningly states that gas prices are lower today than when he took office. Further claiming that gasoline was $5/gal.  {Direct Rumble Link} Nothing about any of his economic claims is true.  WATCH (1 min):

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Allowing people to return to work after the pandemic lockdowns is not “creating jobs.”  And gasoline was not $5/gal when Joe Biden took office.

U.S. GDP Grows 2.6% in Third Quarter Driven by Energy Exports and Declining Goods Imports, While Domestic Economy Shrinks


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 27, 2022 | sundance

The topline of a third-quarter GDP at +2.6% looks good [DATA HERE]. However, a look into the numbers shows alarm.  The domestic U.S. economy, as measured by Main Street creating goods and services for domestic consumption, contracted in the third quarter.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) calculation is a valuation of all goods and services created within the economy, minus the value of goods and services imported.  However, even a cursory look under the topline number shows how the import/export dynamic creates the illusion of economic growth.

In the third quarter we exported hundreds of billions worth of energy products, including massive liquified natural gas (LNG) sales to Europe, and oil sales to the global market from the strategic petroleum reserve.  We also sold billions in weapons to Europe. Those sales are calculated as exports, lifting the GDP number (Table 1).  At the same time, imports of durable goods into the United States collapsed; meaning less was deducted from the GDP.  The net import/export impact on the GDP dynamic was +2.77% (Table 2).

Meaning the third-quarter import/export dynamic alone contributed 2.7% growth to the percentage of change for the prior period.  However, the total GDP only rose 2.6%, because the actual economic value created domestically got smaller.  We made less internally, sold less internally and consumers purchased less internally.

You can see the import/export dynamic in whole dollars within Table 1:

TABLE 1 – We exported 17.2% more goods in the third quarter than in the second quarter (that’s mostly energy sales and food sales to the global market).  We imported 8.7% less goods in the third quarter than the second quarter.  That’s mostly the drop in companies ordering products from overseas for sales in the United States.  Companies imported less because inventories climbed as consumers stopped purchasing durable goods and non-essentials.

Table – 2 (modified for clarity) shows us the impact or contribution from the import/export dynamic:

In Table-2 you can see the net impact of higher exports and lower imports lifted the GDP by 2.77%.  However, the total GDP only gained 2.6% due to the other dynamics inside the economy slowing down.  The import/export dynamic alone was enough to explain the entire gain in Q3 GDP and is a function of US support of the European war economy as the US exports record number of commodities (oil and gas), as well as Joe Biden’s massive multi-billion weapon sales to Europe.

The Biden administration will use the +2.6% GDP number to claim the U.S. “recession” never existed, despite two previously negative quarters.  However, while technically the talking point may be true, the domestic U.S. economy (Main Street) is making less stuff and consumers are buying less stuff.

The savings rate is also declining.  BLS: “Personal saving was $626.1 billion in the third quarter, compared with $629.0 billion in the second quarter. The personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 3.3 percent in the third quarter, compared with 3.4 percent in the second quarter.”  American households are saving less because essential purchases like housing, rent, food, fuel and energy, are costing much more.

When households evaluate their checkbooks, a Biden administration claim of a growing economy falls flat – because the only part of the economy that is growing is the part that fuels the energy needs of Europe.  Main Street USA is suffering through the massive inflation that Joe Biden has created, and purchases of anything other than necessities have come to a near halt.

Davos in the Desert


Armstrong Economics Blog/World Trade Re-Posted Oct 27, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Some of the biggest players have gathered in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, for the annual Future Investment Initiative (FII). The conference is often referred to as “Davos in the Desert,” as they are competing with the World Economic Forum to be the largest economic conference of the year. Washington’s relationship with Saudi Arabia is at a standstill, but that is not preventing Wall Street’s chief names from attending.

“American companies will make their own decisions about their presence and where to invest, taking into account a range of factors including legal constraints, the business environment, and reputational concerns that can arise from public policy choices made by host countries,” said Karine Jean-Pierre, the White House press secretary.

Former Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, who both run private funds backed by the Saudis, were in attendance. JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon and Goldman’s David Solomon spoke at the event along with Blackstone’s Stephen Schwarzman and investor Ray Dalio. FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried also spoke at the event. No one associated with the Biden Administration was in attendance as Washington is re-evaluating its relationship with Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia’s economy is rapidly growing. The event is Prince Mohammed’s opportunity to show that the kingdom is ready to be seen as a financial powerhouse beyond its energy sector. The private sector is making it known that they are willing to invest in Saudi Arabia despite Washington’s reluctance.

Fetterman v Oz – Another Case Against Mail-In Voting


Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption Re-Posted Oct 27, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The Pennsylvania Senate debate between John Fetterman and Mehmet Oz was a complete disaster for Fetterman. I think everyone felt secondhand embarrassment for John. Fetterman seemed incoherent for most of the debate. He struggled to form logical sentences or stay on topic.

His team is now in the midst of damage control. They claim that he was brave for speaking weeks after his stroke and that the closed captions provided were altered. “We are thrilled with John’s performance. He did remarkably well tonight – especially when you consider that he’s still recovering from a stroke and was working off of delayed captions filled with errors,” Fetterman’s team managed to say. The doctor who gave Fetterman the OK after his stroke also happens to be one of his campaign donors. Clearly, he was not healthy enough to be on that stage.

Some people would have voted for Fetterman even if he were in a coma simply because he is not a Republican. Others, however, are shocked at the candidate’s mental state. The problem is that close to a million people have already voted in Pennsylvania through mail-in ballots. There may be some sensible people left who are now regretting their vote after seeing his performance on Tuesday night.

Mail-in ballots are not tracked through the mail and open the door to fraud (see: 2020 US Presidential Election). Fraud aside, people did not have a full scope of knowledge before they voted. It would be akin to allowing students to take their final exams during the first few weeks of class.