Apr 24 2023

The Great De-Dollarization

Armstrong Economics Blog/USD $ Re-Posted Apr 23, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

All we hear is the same claims that the dollar is dead and it will be totally worthless any day now. Over the last few weeks, all we hear from the majority now is that the dollar is finished. Virtually every page you turn or site you visit claims the death of the dollar. They are calling this the de-dollarization of the world economy and that the future of the US dollar as well as the American empire itself is now collapsing. The general claim is that the group of economically-aligned nations known collectively as BRICS is a major threat to the greenback. That was the same story we heard about the Euro back in 1997.

As their scenario goes, the BRICS [Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa] have moved to form an anti-dollar colation and Saudi Arabia is considering jumping on board. They insist that once that happens, the “petrodollar” will die and cease to be a reserve currency.

This is then followed by the forecast that the economy will suffer and that any bounce in exports will be short-lived simply because the dollar will be dead for the long term. Of course, this has been the favorite forecast that they keep putting out since Bretton Woods collapsed. They were wrong back then for the dollar rose between 1972 and 1976 against the British pound, with the collapse of Bretton Woods. To try to explain why the dollar did not collapse, that is when they claimed that the dollar was backed now by oil rather than gold. That was just an excuse as always to cover up their wrong forecast.

They sold that story to Newsweek and now the dollar rally was because of oil which replace gold. Suddenly the dollar became de facto backed by oil. They needed an explanation to explain why all the old theories were wrong. They sold this theory and it made the front cover of Newsweek. Everyone said YES! That must be the reason. OPEC priced oil in dollars! Naturally, everything was priced in dollars because, under the fixed exchange rate of Bretton Woods, everything from wheat and corn to copper and gold was all priced in dollars.

Now they are saying the American empire is threatened by the potential commercial real estate collapse and the BRICS anti-dollar venture. So they are forecasting a great depression-style crash is possible in the not-too-distant future. They spin this to forecast the end of the America Empire. The London FT, always anti-American/Pro WEF, reports that the dollar as a reserve currency has declined from 73% in 2001 to around 55% by 2021. Yet the FT did state an obvious fact:

“But if you are a reserve-rich central bank elsewhere that isn’t going to be a lot of comfort. Moreover, would you really feel more comfortable in, say, the renminbi? Even if it was fully convertible and liquid, would you honestly feel more sure that Beijing will behave lawfully than DC? The dollar still looks like the proverbial least dirty shirt in the closet.”

COVID actually has played a major role in shifting the world economy. In 2020, the US economy was 24.75% of the world’s GDP. By the start of 2022, it had fallen marginally to 24.15%. What these dollar-forecasting jockeys do not understand, is that if they were correct and the dollar collapsed, then the very BRICS would collapse even further. Economically speaking, when the United States gets a head cold, the rest of the world catches ammonia. You can’t have it both ways. The strength of the dollar is not gold or oil, it is the American consumer.

The risk to the entire world is runaway inflation thanks to Biden pouring untold amounts of money into the black hole known as Ukraine. The Neocons, who control Biden, are planning to launch a war against Russia and China before 2024. This will only continue to accelerate inflation. That reduces the spending power of the American consumer and in the process, the US economic growth declines in real terms and with it, the rest of the world plunges into recession.

While Macron has figured it out that the Neocons are in charge of US foreign policy and he is telling Europe to stop being the puppet of the USA, that all sounds nice but Europe is marching into war with Russia. NATO is firmly in control of the American Neocons and they need war or face losing power. With Trump in the lead, they must stop him at all costs for he is anti-war, would haul the Neocons out by the necks, and defund NATO, as well as stop the climate change agenda.

The US dollar in the global economy has been supported by the size and strength of the US consumer-based economy. Its stability and openness to trade and capital flows without restrictions and it has never been canceled, are the major foundation of the dollar in addition to strong property rights and the rule of law. That is why Russians and Chinese buy US property for they are secure in their ownership of US property which cannot always be guaranteed outside the US.

Consequently, the depth and liquidity of US financial markets remain unmatched. For institutions parking billions, the United States represents a large supply of extremely safe dollar-denominated assets. Are they really going to switch to China or buy debt from Brazil? Not a single institutional client will take that bait.

China has been divesting of dollar reserves because it KNOWS that the American Neocons want war. You do not fund your adversary who intends to wage war against you. China cannot shift reserve assets to Europe or Japan. They have been buying gold because it is geopolitically neutral territory. They are NOT buying gold as an investor thinking it will rally. That is irrelevant. If gold drops 25%, that does not translate into them becoming a seller.

The dollar in international reserves stood at 60+% at the start of 2022 against the US share of GDP at 24.25%. This comparison belittles the argument that the dollar is finished. Eventually, the US will lose the wars it is starting and the dollar will be replaced perhaps as soon as 2028. The IMF is already licking its lips and rubbing its hands together eager to get control of the reserve currency. But they too will collapse. We have a Directional Change next year and a Panic Cycle in 2025. So buckle up.!

Remember one thing, even with the debasement and collapse of the Roman Denarius between 260AD and 268AD, it still took 224 years for Rome to completely collapse. When war breaks out, capital flight will still be to the dollar. It will not be to public assets, but private. The United States is still supporting the entire world economy. The BRICS need the US consumer to keep their economies functioning. All this talk of the dollar being finished is really nonsense. That day will come, but when the US consumer no longer buys.

Remember 1997? The Euro was going to dethrone the dollar. They claimed the new EU will be a bigger economy than the US. The problem was, they lacked a consumer economy, and low taxes, and they routinely canceled their currency to force people to pay taxes. It is always the same story over and over again.

Apr 17 2023

Sunday Talks, EU Central Bank Lagarde Very Pleased with Compliant Citizens, the Proles, Accepting Economic Malaise as the New Normal

Posted originally on the CTH on April 16, 2023 | Sundance

Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, appears on Face the Nation to describe the current status of EU success in shrinking the economy to achieve parity with the shrinking of energy development. Ms. Lagarde is very happy with their ‘management of the transition’ so far, and sees slow economic growth combined with a citizenry happily accepting the lower standard of living, the new normal.

As Lagarde outlines, the lowered economic activity is helping the central banks support the objectives of the government officials and corporations who are giving the instructions. Overall, she is optimistic the common man and woman will continue accepting less ability to achieve personal economic and financial success, as the bankers and politicians continue managing the western transition. Things are going swimmingly. WATCH:

https://youtube.com/watch?v=xh8zqRWiQZ4%3Ffeature%3Doembed

MARGARET BRENNAN: We’re joined now by Christine Lagarde, former head of the IMF, now the president of the European Central Bank. Good morning.

PRESIDENT OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK CHRISTINE LAGARDE: Good morning, Margaret. Lovely to be back.

MARGARET BRENNAN: Good to have you here, and your recovery is going all right?

MADAME LAGARDE: Yes, in a couple of days, I think I’ll be fine.

MARGARET BRENNAN: I’m glad to hear that. You have a long list of things ahead of you. And I want to ask you about the global recovery. You were speaking a few days ago and you said the recovery for the economy is fragile and uncertain in this country. The Fed thinks we’ll see a mild recession later this year. What is it that you predict?

MADAME LAGARDE: First of all, there is recovery. That’s, I think, a point that was not really firm only six months ago where we all assumed that there would be a recession, if only a technical one. If you look at all the forecasts at the moment, it’s all positive. It’s been slightly downgraded. But overall, we have a recovery and we are faced with high uncertainty because of multiple factors, you know, from all corners of the world. It’s the war in Ukraine. It’s the financial stability that clearly has been shaken up a bit by the US and Switzerland development. It’s inflation that we are fighting. It’s all that which really create a hollow of uncertainty around a recovery that we want to embed. That’s pretty much where we are.

MARGARET BRENNAN: So there were those recent bank failures here in the United States, also one in Switzerland. Given that, it sounds like you’re saying you don’t see a hard landing, you’re seeing a positive trajectory for the global economy?

MADAME LAGARDE: I think we have a narrow path to navigate, which requires that both the governments and the central banks around the world adopt the right policies.

MARGARET BRENNAN: OPEC just cut output.

MADAME LAGARDE: Hm?

MARGARET BRENNAN: OPEC just cut output, but you don’t see that as a disruption?

MADAME LAGARDE: I know. And- and we have to be very attentive. But in the meantime, if you look at- I’ll have to look at Europe at the moment. We have reduced our overall consumption of gas energy, for instance, by more than 15 percent. So it’s not as if we negotiated here or there. We just cut down our energy consumption, number one. Number two, we have renegotiated with multiple partners ranging from Norway to the United States of America, which is a big supplier of our energy. And I think that our dependency, which we learned the hard way about, has significantly declined. So I think that we moved from the illusion of plenty of energy, free money, to a time of resilience and building buffers. This is what has happened.

MARGARET BRENNAN: It’s interesting to hear that optimism. I mean, given the bank failures we just saw, you hear from bank CEOs in this country, this idea that they’re getting more cautious about lending money, largely that there’s some contraction in credit there. How concerned are you and how does that complicate your planning?

MADAME LAGARDE: It’s funny you should ask, complication because in a way it facilitates my planning and it complicates the future as far as growth.

MARGARET BRENNAN: Because it slows down business activity so you don’t have to raise rates as much or as frequently.

MADAME LAGARDE: We don’t have to reduce. We’ll see. Because we need to really measure what will come out of this- this financial events that took place recently. What impact will it have? How will banks react? How will they assess risk and how much credit will they lend? But if they don’t lend too much credit and if they manage their risk, it might reduce the work that we have to do to reduce inflation, okay? But if they reduce too much credit, then it will weigh on growth excessively. So it’s a fine balance to have between credit risk, good management on the one hand, and on the other hand, financing the economy as is expected by- by the business community. The business community wants to invest at the moment. Some of them have big buffers and they can use those buffers, others are going to need credit financing from the banking sector and the markets, both of them.

MARGARET BRENNAN: I want to ask you about the U.S.. And it’s not a political question, it’s an economic one. But there are predictions that the U.S. could default in its national debt as soon as June, some say September, and we have a political standoff in this country, virtually no negotiation happening on how to resolve this. Does that undermine your confidence in the United States? And what message does that send to the world?

MADAME LAGARDE: I have huge confidence in the United States. You know, ever since my year in this country, and this city in ’73, ’74, I have had confidence in this country and I just cannot believe that they would let such a major, major disaster happen of the United States defaulting on its debt. This is not possible. I cannot believe that it would happen. But if it did happen, it would have very, very negative impact, not just for this country where confidence would be challenged, but around the world. Let’s face it, this is the largest economy. It’s a major leader in economic growth around the world. It cannot let that happen. I understand the politics, I’ve been in politics myself. But there is a time when the higher interest of a nation has to prevail. I’m sorry.

MARGARET BRENNAN: And you think that will happen?

MADAME LAGARDE: I have huge trust in this country yet again.

MARGARET BRENNAN: You’re bringing a lot of optimism to a show where we don’t have a lot of optimism.

MADAME LAGARDE: Oh. I’m sorry (laughs)

MARGARET BRENNAN: No, I like it. It’s interesting. It’s a change. I want to ask you, though, about what you just said in terms of U.S. leadership. You look to the other side of the globe and Xi Jinping has said he wants China to be the world’s leading power by 2049. And Beijing is very interlinked into so many economies, particularly in Europe. Is the U.S. losing global influence?

MADAME LAGARDE: There is clearly a competition between these- these large economies. The U.S. is the first economy in the world. China is clearly competing, and is putting all forces in that competition. I think competition is healthy. It has to stimulate innovation. It has to stimulate productivity. But it’s inevitable that these two large economies are facing each other. What I hope very much is that they can have a dialogue because, you know, all these relationships, whether it’s trade, whether it’s politics, whether it’s economic development, whether it is financial stability, it’s a two-way street. We cannot ignore each other, and trade should not be confrontational. It has to be careful. It has to identify the areas that are strategic for one country or the other- or all the others. But it shouldn’t be confrontational. I’m on the same page as Henry Kissinger on that, or Kevin Rudd, the new Australian ambassador. Conflict is not unavoidable.

MARGARET BRENNAN: But there is, it seems, increased political pressure to choose between the United States and China in many ways in some of these political capitals. Is that even practical from an economic point of view?

MADAME LAGARDE: It would lead to economic downside, the amount of which is uncertain. Is the global economy going to be affected by one or X percent? There are multiple forecasts, all of them are negative. So the decoupling and the sort of bipolarization of the world would lead to less economic growth, less prosperity in the world, more poverty across the world. So I think that this is something that should be by all means avoided.

MARGARET BRENNAN: Madame Lagarde, it’s always wonderful to have you here. Thank you. We’ll be right back.

Mar 23 2023

De-Banking Journalists

Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption Re-Posted Mar 23, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Honest journalism has become a crime. I have appeared numerous times on Maria Zaric’s program, Zeee Media. Maria is a professional journalist who asks thought-provoking questions to the experts that appear on her show. Her content goes against the grain and traditional narrative. The Australian-based journalist has been questioning COVID, the Great Reset, governments, globalists, the war in Ukraine, and many other topics that are completely taboo in the mainstream media. They attempted to shut down her channel in the past. Now, she has been de-banked with no explanation.

“Do you shut down peoples accounts due to their political views by any chance?” Maria asked the bank representative, only to be met with silence. Maria had been banking with ING Bank for numerous years without issues. Her account was suddenly shut down shortly after releasing a story on domestic terrorism in Australia. ING Bank has been unable to explain why her account was canceled.

Interestingly, ING is a partner of the World Economic Forum. Maria has extensively covered the WEF’s agenda to “enslave humanity.” Is Australia secretly keeping track of journalists’ “social credit scores” to silence skepticism?

The idea of eliminating someone’s ability to bank is essentially eliminating them from society. We saw Canada do the same thing to those protesting the Trucker Convoy. Trudeau took things a step further by also de-banking people who simply donated to the cause. The Canadian government used the premise of money laundering as a way to coerce the banks into reporting any activity that could have been intended to help the protestors. I know of numerous people who were frantically attempting to remove their funds from the bank during this time.

As if the public needed more reasons to lose trust in the banking system. This is not limited to one bank or country. I discussed how banks have the ability to “cancel” someone after JPMorgan Chase de-banked the rapper Kanye West for antisemitic remarks. The bank acts as the jury and judge. Epstein was permitted to hold funds at JPMorgan Chase despite an ongoing pedophile ring trial. Bernie Madoff banked with JPMorgan Chase. The bank has secret ties to the Third Reich and helped the group funnel money through South America during World War II. Again, the bank acts as the jury and judge; anyone can be de-banked anytime for any reason.

Most countries may not openly have social credit scores, but they’re keeping tabs on us. They are keenly aware that resistance to this New World Order is building. So they are now using professional journalists as examples hoping that people will stop asking questions to learn the truth. That is one of the reasons why this blog is free of charge – you deserve to know the truth.

Mar 22 2023

The Banking & Debt Crisis Continues

Armstrong Economics Blog/Banking Crisis Re-Posted Mar 22, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The banking crisis continues and it is impacting funds that have been buying bonds. Allianz, a subsidiary of Pimco, is writing off countless millions with Credit Suisse bonds. The banking crisis has been the result of artificially low-interest rates for far too long and banks were used to free money and buy long-term bonds all because they were making their money on the spread. Now that rates are rising, their risk management was effectively nonexistent, and thus the losses and widespread.

The Allianz subsidiary Pimco is one of the largest asset managers in the world. They have to now write off a loss in Credit Suisse bonds and it’s ain’t over yet as we head into April 10th.

Mar 17 2023

EU Central Bank Raises Rates Again Despite Weakened Banking Concerns – Supporting Climate Change and Assisting Central Bank Digital Currency Creation Most Important

Posted originally on the CTH on March 16, 2023 | Sundance

The European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates again today, while simultaneously promising to support further bank bailouts that might come as an outcome of raising the rates again. In the bigger picture there are two dynamics supported by the ECB playing out.

The first issue is the ideological effort to change the economic models based on climate change. The Build Back Better (Green New Deal) policy, a traditional energy production control effort, is being supported by the ECB effort to shrink the EU economy to meet the rate of diminished energy production. Make the economy smaller to meet the lower energy production rate.

Lowered energy production (oil, coal and natural gas) has raised energy prices; this is the fuel behind supply side inflation. The Western policy created energy inflation is hitting every aspect of the EU, US and western global economy. The prices of all downstream goods and services have risen dramatically as a result. The European banks are not going to stop trying to make the economy smaller just because banks are failing. That brings us to the second issue.

Like the first issue with BBB controls, the World Economic Forum action plan for government also includes the creation of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). The collapsing of the traditional banking system supports the agenda to create CBDCs. Raising interest rates puts more pressure on already weak banks. This is a feature not a flaw of the intent.

Shifting the economy from traditional oil, coal and natural gas is one aspect (climate change). Shifting the banking system from traditional currency to central bank digital currencies is the second aspect (total govt financial control). The banking instability is the crisis that facilitates the CBDC solution. Ergo, continue raising rates and continue making the crisis more useful.

In the bigger picture, this is an ideological quest to fundamentally change the western economic model. Support for that change is what we are witnessing as the EU central banks continue raising rates. Ultimately, banks being controlled by government is the necessary step to achieve the second phase of the larger plan.

(Via Wall Street Journal) – FRANKFURT—The European Central Bank raised interest rates by a half-percentage point while promising emergency support for eurozone banks if needed, showing the policy makers’ balancing act as they seek to combat high inflation without aggravating strains in the financial system.

The ECB said in a statement that it would increase its key rate to 3%, following consecutive half-point rate increases in February and December. The 50 basis-point rise surprised analysts who had expected a smaller uptick given the tense market situation after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.

At a news conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde signaled the bank would be cautious about further rate increases, while stressing it stood ready to provide fresh liquidity to banks. Policy makers will make future rate decisions based on coming economic data, she said, a change from previously announcing plans for rate increases months in advance.

“It’s not business as usual,” Ms. Lagarde said. “It is not possible at this point in time…to determine what the path will be going forward.” (read more)

Meanwhile in the U.S., the Fed/Treasury plan is to do essentially the same thing by supporting the big banks with over $2 trillion in available backstop funding. The Fed is celebrating the big banks supporting the smaller banks. Ultimately, this is the banking system downsizing and getting more control with less players.

Washington, DC — The following statement was released by Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen, Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell, FDIC Chairman Martin J. Gruenberg, and Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael J. Hsu:

Today, 11 banks announced $30 billion in deposits into First Republic Bank. This show of support by a group of large banks is most welcome, and demonstrates the resilience of the banking system. (LINK)

The implementation of a U.S. digital currency will become easier if there are fewer players in the banking system. WATCH:

https://youtube.com/watch?v=Bcvl104tyRY%3Ffeature%3Doembed

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Category ECB President Christine Lagard

EU Central Bank Raises Rates Again Despite Weakened Banking Concerns – Supporting Climate Change and Assisting Central Bank Digital Currency Creation Most Important

Posted originally on the CTH on March 16, 2023 | Sundance

Washington, DC — The following statement was released by Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen, Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell, FDIC Chairman Martin J. Gruenberg, and Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael J. Hsu:

Today, 11 banks announced $30 billion in deposits into First Republic Bank. This show of support by a group of large banks is most welcome, and demonstrates the resilience of the banking system. (LINK)

Armstrong Economics Blog/USD $ Re-Posted Apr 23, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

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Posted originally on the CTH on April 16, 2023 | Sundance

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Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption Re-Posted Mar 23, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

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Armstrong Economics Blog/Banking Crisis Re-Posted Mar 22, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

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Posted originally on the CTH on March 16, 2023 | Sundance

Washington, DC — The following statement was released by Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen, Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell, FDIC Chairman Martin J. Gruenberg, and Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael J. Hsu:

Today, 11 banks announced $30 billion in deposits into First Republic Bank. This show of support by a group of large banks is most welcome, and demonstrates the resilience of the banking system. (LINK)

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