Category Minsk Protocol 2014 and Minsk II 3015

Mar 26 2022

China Backs Russia – they are All-In


Armstrong Economics Blog/China Re-Posted Mar 26, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty; I remember when the Chinese central bank said they were using capital flow analysis which is your model. You said China should buy US debt directly from the Treasury and not the NY bankers. They did that in a matter of weeks. So when they say they are on the right side of history, are they talking about your model forecasting they will replace the US as the financial capital of the world?

NH

ANSWER: You have to understand that Asians believe in cycles. They are part of their religion. Richard E. Nesbett wrote an interesting book entitled “The Geography of Thought, How Asians and Westerners Think Differently … and why.” He attributed his work to a Chinese student who said, “You know, the difference between you and me is that I think the world is a Circle, and you think it’s a line.” He goes on to quote him:

“The Chinese believe in constant change, but with things always moving back to some prior state. They pay attention to wide range of events; they search for relationships between things; and they think you can’t understand the part without understanding the whole. Westerners live in a simpler, more deterministic world; they focus on salient objects or people instead of the larger picture; and they think they can control events because they know the rules that govern the behavior of objects.”

In my 40 years of dealing with governments, I NEVER had to explain cyclical theory in Asia – only to American & European who do think always on a linear basis. They apply this to analysis like climate change. The temperature has risen say 5 degrees on years and they project that out and say we will all die in 7 years. NEVER does the West ever forecast cyclically – it is always linearly.

China understand cycles – we do not. They understand the rise and fall of empires, nations, and city states. They understand that Communism failed for it tried to defeat human nature. They see the future cyclically and that is what they are saying that they will be on the right side of history. They know the West is crumbing from within. The time that the US hands that title to China is upon the doorstep. The West has done nothing but try to force their ideas upon everyone abandoning freedom and they have introduced the cancelation culture. We have lost all the values that made America great. It is time for Europe and American to die the same way all empires die, by their own hand of suicide.

China being on the “right side of history” means they know the United States is declining and they will step into the void. They can “feel” it with or without my models.

Mar 26 2022

What is a Real Neocon?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Neocons Re-Posted Mar 25, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong:

I’ve been called a Neocon, before the 2016 election, and denied it. I’m not sure Wikipedia has a correct definition, and they sure don’t have one of you. What is a good definition of a Neocon?

I enjoy your articles.

TP

ANSWER: I looked up the term and you are right. It seems to be misused and certainly not understood. Neocons are NOT “conservatives” from an economic viewpoint for they exist in both parties for I have been solicited and have had deep discussions about the view.

Bill Kristol is a chief Neocon but he was out to overthrow Trump. A true Neocon is not really concerned about the economics and free trade theories. They are ONLY concerned with foreign policy and want to see their enemies defeated at all costs. Bill Kristol hated Trump because he would not wage war. Economics is out the window. Marxism is OK just as long as you wage war he can watch on TV like a football game and cheer when the people he hates are dead.

So “my” definition of a Neocon has NOTHING to do with the economics, free markets, or anti-socialism. There are Neocons who only see war and hatred who are on BOTH sides and exist be they LEFT or RIGHT.

Putin has been in power for over 20 years. He has NOT sought to expand Russia to the old Soviet Union nor has he sought to reestablish Communism as the Neocons have alleged. This as been their propaganda to stir up hatred against Russia which is their Archenemy. When they are finished with Russia, they will turn against China. They do not believe in peace.

Mar 26 2022

An Interview with Martin Armstrong


Armstrong Economics Blog/The Forecaster Re-Posted Mar 24, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Mar 26 2022

Zelenskyy Likely to Make Hollywood Oscar Appearance


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on March 25, 2022 

Showcasing what we have said from the outset, everything about the conflict in Ukraine is a case study in war propaganda as created by the U.S. State Dept, the intelligence apparatus and Hollywood {Go Deep}.

…”Strategic success in the 21st century is not about a physical land grab of territory; that’s what Putin has done.  In this century, strategic power is increasingly measured and exercised by economic strength, by technological sophistication and your story – who you are, what your values are; can you attract ideas and talent and goodwill? And on each of those measures, this will be a failure for Russia.”

~ Deputy National Security Advisor Daleep Singh

White House Deputy National Security Advisor Daleep Singh boiled down geopolitical power to a cultural issue of social likeability.   This is genuinely what the people running the State Dept., CIA and Biden administration believe.  To put a fine point on it:

(New York) – Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been in talks with the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences to make a video appearance during Sunday’s broadcast of the Academy Awards, The Post has learned.

Academy officials still are debating on whether Zelensky will indeed appear briefly on the show, sources said. It’s also not clear if he would appear live or in a taped message. Sources said the debate centers on whether the Oscars should remain apolitical as the Russian invasion of Ukraine rages on. (read more)

The relationship between the CIA and Hollywood is well established.   As a consequence, the award for best actor in a made for television drama or mini-series goes to….

Mar 26 2022

The Hypocrisy of Biden Speaking About Democracy vs Autocracy in Poland Is Choking When Contrast Against Western Govt Behavior During COVID


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on March 25, 2022

There comes a time when a person has no more tongue to bite.  Joe Biden speaking to U.S. troops in Poland about “democracies at an inflection” point in history, is jaw-dropping when you consider the behavior of every western government leader over the past two years.

Once again, Joe Biden, the same authoritarian who mandated that every American worker undergo a medical procedure in order to qualify as a person who might earn a living, sits atop his high-horse and pretends that western government leaders have some inherent claim to the protection of democracy.

Given their collective behavior over the past two years, the hypocrisy of this continued talking point is beyond outlandish.

[Transcript] …”We’re in the midst of — and I don’t want to sound too philosophic here — but you’re in the midst of a fight between democracies and oligarchs.  Xi Jinping — who I’ve spent more time with, they tell me, than any other world leader — points out to me that he believes, in China, that democracies can’t succeed in the 21st century.  The reason is things are moving so fast, change is happening so quickly that democracies require consensus, and we can’t put together consensus as quickly as autocrats can.

So, what’s at stake — not just in what we’re doing here in Ukraine to try to help the Ukrainian people and keep the massacre from continuing — but beyond that, what’s at stake is: What’s — what’s — what are your kids and grandkids going to look like in terms of their — their freedom?  What’s happening?  The last 10 years, there have been fewer democracies that have been formed than we’ve lost in the world. 

So, this is — what you’re engaged in is much more than just whether or not you can alleviate the pain and suffering of the people of Ukraine. 

We’re in a new phase — your generation.  We’re at an inflection point.  About every four or five generations, there comes along a change — a fundamental change takes place.  The world ain’t going to be the same — not because of Ukraine, but — not going to be the same 10, 15 years from now in terms of our organizational structures. 

So, the question is: Who is going to prevail?  Are democracies going to prevail on the — and the values we share?  Or are autocracies going to prevail?  And that’s really what’s at stake. 

So, what you’re doing is consequential — really consequential.  (read more)

I know Emmanuel Macron, Boris Johnson, Jacinda Ardern, Scott Morrison, Justin Trudeau and Joe Biden himself, would like to think that we do not remember the past two years of complete unilateral dictatorship they enjoyed while hiding behind the shield of “emergency authorizations,” but this is one website that will continue to document – for the historical record – the brutal reality of these pontificating liars.

Do they really think we have forgotten how they never once asked the representative government for authorization before triggering their unilateral fiats?  The economic lockdowns, the loss of liberty, the collapse of freedom, the shutting down of any form of petition for grievance, the use and weaponization of the regulatory system, the manipulation of courts, the unilateral mask and vaccination mandates, the demands for compliance to some of the most ridiculous rules and regulations, and yes, even the lies and double-standards they applied to the masses while they themselves ignored the rules they forced upon everyone else….  Do they really thing we have forgotten this?

There’s a lot of white-hot anger amid the citizenry of those aforementioned nations, righteous anger – yet these government creatures of entitlement stand on a soapbox today and decry autocracy and/or oligarchs.

Seriously?

Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping did not arrest moms in playgrounds in Michigan.  Russian police officers did not arrest paddleboarders off the beach in Malibu. The Chinese state police didn’t fill skate parks with sand, or shut down restaurants, or destroy the livelihoods of middle America.

It wasn’t the Kremlin police arresting people in New York City for going to restaurants without authorization papers.

It wasn’t the FSB firing bullets into the crowds in Melbourne, Australia, because the people refused to wear masks.  It wasn’t Moscow who created “bubbles” in New Zealand demanding a person apply for a permit before visiting their elderly parents, or arresting people for going to McDonalds and trying to navigate through police checkpoints and roadblocks.

It wasn’t the armed Chinese military who set up involuntary detainment facilities in Australia and then called them quarantine camps- where if you crossed the arbitrary yellow line painted on the porch, you would be arrested and thrown into solitary confinement.  It was “democratic” premiers and national democratic leaders of the Scott Morrison administration.

It wasn’t the North Korean army who monitored Facebook accounts in Canada and questioned people who dare speak about the concept of liberty, or raise concerns about totalitarian dictates.

It wasn’t Kim Jong-un who declared a national emergency, then arrested his political opposition for protesting in downtown Ottawa.  It wasn’t Chairman Xi who confiscated the bank accounts of dissident citizens who dared to raise their voices in support of truck drivers.  It was Justin Trudeau.

It wasn’t Beijing who hired state-sponsored hunters to track down unvaccinated citizens in Austria, fine them and confiscate their wages if they did not comply with vaccines.

It wasn’t Chairman Xi who blocked those citizens from shopping in supermarkets forcing citizens into a black-market just to scrounge for food and essential medicine.  It was the government of Austria.

It wasn’t the police in Pyongyang who set up vaccine checkpoints in Paris, and demanded formerly free citizens to show their authorization papers to sit outside at a cafe table.

If these Western leaders like Joe Biden think they have some credibility to stand in Poland and talk about the value of democracy, they would be well served if their handlers mentioned these insufferable protestations are falling on deaf ears.

Few things raise the anger of people to a level where foul language is the better option than the physical violence that might surface without it, but this level of hypocrisy and pretense is surely one of them.

To all the leaders of various “western democracies” who will now clutch their pearls as the backlash from the brutalized citizens starts to come full circle, you did this to yourself.

No one is to blame other than Biden, Trudeau, Ardern, Morrison, Macron, Johnson et al and the leaders of NATO who now suddenly need the support of the citizens they abused in order to fend off their new enemy, Vladimir Putin.

Western government leaders intentionally and willfully positioned themselves as the enemy of freedom.  They do not now get to grab back the torch of liberty and wield it as a talking point weapon against totalitarianism.

Mar 25 2022

NATO – UKRAINE- RUSSIA


Armstrong Economics Blog/Russia Re-Posted Mar 25, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Putin is a madman. He has invaded a sovereign nation and Russia has to pay for that.

SV

ANSWER: Obviously, you are believing the propaganda from the West. Putin has stated from the outset that he was NOT seeking to occupy or conquer Ukraine. Just look at the numbers. Estimates of Russian troop numbers in Ukraine have ranged from anywhere between 100,000 and 200,000 in recent weeks.  Now, if he was intending to really “invade” a sovereign nation, you would assumed that the standard military strength that you want is between 2 to 3 times your opponent.

OK. So the question becomes: What is the size of the Ukrainian Army? That is about 297,000 and they are NATO trained forces. They are not farmers and hicks – but professional soldiers. So the press that portrays that Putin is losing and this is taking too long are all based upon the idea that the objective is conquest. But Putin has stated from the outset, and he has NOT deviated, that he wanted Ukraine to be demilitarized and remains as “NEUTRAL” as according to the Belgrade Agreement.

This is a PROXY war and Putin understand that now. Zelensky is unwilling to let Donbas go nore Crimea and his statement that he asked to join NATO was rejected, but he states the “door remains open” and NATO has trained the Ukrainian Army so they are up to NATO standards without formally being in NATO. Putin understand all of this. He has an army of 850,000 active personnel and 250,000 in reserve. China had 2,695,000.00 in 2018 and may be approaching 3 million right now.

The biggest NATO force in Europe is Turkey with about 445,000. The next is France with 208,000, Germany 1ith 189,000, Italy with 174,000, the UK with 156,000, Spain at 123,000, Poland 121,000, Greece 106,000, and everyone else under 100,000. The US has 1,352,000 and Canada 71,000. This means that in Europe, NATO has 1.3 million. If China assasited Russia, that would be a force of 3.7 million.

The problem this time is that the US has 1.3 million total, down from 2.2 million under Reagan. The US is clearly counting on non-conventional weapons. So have we reached the point where nukes are the ONLY line of defense?

You can see that Ukraine with 297,000 actually has the largest army in continental Europe that confronts Russia. Therefore, if Ukraine was part of NATO, it would have a conventional force of about 1.6 million including Turkey. That would outnumber Russia at about 1.1 million and that once again means a conventional attack on Russia would need to go nuclear to defend against Europe.

The risk of escalation here will be 8.6 weeks into this confrontation which will bring us to the week of April 18th, followed by the first week of May. The sanctions imposed on Russia are more than just insane, they have set in motion famine in Europe. Even French President Macron has been briefed on this real threat. He has urged an immediate emergency plan for food security at the G7 that has been triggered by the war in Ukraine. Moscow has urged that the longer the battle in Ukraine continues being the breadbasket of Europe, this war could result in “inevitable famine” as soon as 12 to 18 months from now. Because the bulk of the exports from Ukraine feed Northern Africa, he has warned this could be serious. Indeed, our model is pointing to rising civil unrest over food and corruption.

This DEMONIZING Putin is highly dangerous. All the Russian leaders see this as a proxy war and they will respond even much more aggressively if Putin was not there. My concern is the US keeps cheering on the Ukrainians and they NEVER have any strategy other than the immediate victory. The aftermath they seem to never consider. Remove Putin and this is an attack upon Russia and its culture, that pushes the world to the brink and we cannot rule out that it wo0uld be a warning to all of Europe by nuking Kyiv as a warning to all of Europe – is this what you really want?

Mar 25 2022

Biden Turns Unstable and Angry When He Receives One Non Preapproved Question During NATO Presser


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on March 24, 2022 

Within the background game we are supposed to ignore, the people behind Joe Biden pre-select and pre-approve the questions he receives.  The approved journalists and questions are written on a sheet for him to use; today was no exception.  However, during the NATO press briefing the importance and subject matter of the venue put pressure on him to answer one non-approved question.

That singular question ‘triggered’ the angry Biden disposition to surface, when he was asked to reconcile his current sanctions regime against previous statements about sanctions being a deterrent to Russian aggression.  Biden gets agitated easily. WATCH (prompted):

Mar 25 2022

Biden Briefs Media After NATO Summit Over Ukraine Crisis, Russia Status in G20 Challenged, Global Food Shortages Discussed


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on March 24, 2022

With less than a quarter of the U.S. population having any confidence in Biden’s ability to handle the Ukraine crisis [AP Poll], the installed White House occupant headed to NATO to discuss consensus opinion.

Cliff Notes from Presser – Biden was bullish about the NATO alliance, yet everyone essentially agreed to resist Ukraine’s call for them to enforce a no-fly zone in the country.  During the presser [VIDEO], Biden said he wanted Russia’s ouster from the G20 but conceded it likely won’t happen and deferred to the larger group. Biden unveiled new sanctions but acknowledged that they haven’t been and will not be a deterrent. Then said while his administration wants to get Europe to stop relying on Russian energy, he recognizes it can’t be done.

When Biden was questioned about potential food shortages, he admitted the discussion did actually take place. “With regard to food shortage… it’s gonna be real,” Biden said, while admitting the price of the sanctions is not just going to surface in Russia and Europe but is likely to show up in other nations including the United States.

Don’t downplay the food shortage issue.  The absence of food can change things very quickly.  How the various national leaders respond to food shortages, and/or prices for food that makes food insecurity a very real issue, is an unknown.  However, a food crisis -and the subsequent solutions- could change the direction of many policies.

Call me crazy or whatever, but when you watch and listen to all of these NATO members either individually or collectively, you can get the distinct impression that they’re waiting on advice from some other organization and/or entity that usually provides them instructions.

Mar 24 2022

Should we Cheer for Putin to Lose?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Russia Re-Posted Mar 24, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

While the Neocon strategy of DEMONIZING an adversary as they have done to Putin, the very same strategy was used to get people to absolutely hate Donald Trump. The more someone hates Trump still, the more susceptible they are to simple techniques of mind manipulation. This has led many to cheer for the Ukrainians to defeat Russians and we have the White House calling Putin a War Criminal when you could say the same thing about the US leaders that started the endless saga of wars on false pretenses or took out civils with drones when they wrongly thought they were terrorists.

The White House appears to be under the influence of the Neocons who just always advocate war. Make no mistake about it, these Neocons are not confined to just the Democrats or Republicans. They share a love for war and the hatred of everyone they perceive to be an enemy. It’s tempting to think that Putin will suffer a defeat and democracy could revive in Russia, but a more likely scenario is total world chaos. Russia is also comprised of Muslims who number about 14 million or roughly 10% of the total population. Then there are different cultures and you will see internal chaos and separatist movements armed with nukes.

Putin is not a fool and he is actually honoring his word. He is not trying to conquer Ukraine. His column of tanks had stopped as a show of force and intimidation. He has not ordered just total annihilation. The US strategy is we go in and flatten everything targeting water and power grid. Put took the power station but did not turn off the power. The West portrays this as Putin is stalled and the Ukrainians could defeat the Russians. But this seems to be propaganda all designed to wear down the moral of the Russian troops and sway public opinion for Ukraine.

While the press also portrays that Putin’s nation has now been subjected to an isolation greater than any nation has ever experienced by any major power in history, it was US sanctions to cut off the fuel to Japan that caused them to attack Pearl Harbor. There were later even Congressional investigations into FDR and did he deliberately try to create a situation to get the USA into World War II. Congress simply said the allegations were inconclusive.

Since late February, Russia has been hit with punishing economic, trade and financial sanctions. Putin struck back and said all energy sales to unfriendly nations will now be in Rubles. Saudi Arabia also agreed with China to sell oil in Yuan. These are historically critical events that have torn the world economy asunder. There will NEVER BE A RETURN TO NORMAL.

So while the Western Press cheers and reports that Russia is careering toward a debt default, they forget that the default will be on the West. A very rapid technological decoupling is also underway dividing the world economy and that will threaten free trade and the end of economic growth. Indeed, US GDP Growth rate peaked in real terms.

The mass withdrawal of American firms from Russia will have a profoundly negative impact moving forward and the world economy is shrinking rapidly. Russia isn’t some weak power like Iraq. Russia is a major power whose population was, until recently, deeply connected to its larger global environment. The White House thinks that Russians will blame Putin rather than Biden. Eastern European states like Serbia and in the Middle East are looking at the United States as the problem being arrogant and interfering in everyone else’s affairs. It is without question that the United States has declare war on Russia. This is how World War II began with countries attacking one another in the financial markets.

So while the Neocons lick their lips at the thought of overturning Putin and controlling Russia before they turn on China, they are clearly not looking long-term. They took out Saddam Hussein who kept the religious zealots in their place. Once he was removed, the Middle East saw the rise of ISIS. The US has been covertly funding the Ukrainian Nazis to keep up their fight against Donbass.

Let us may no mistake here. The Neocons pushed and funded through the CIS the Taliban for then they were the anti-Soviet resistance. The CIA Special Activities Division sent paramilitary officers to equip the Mujihadeen forces against the Soviet Army. The US therefore funded Taliban mainly to assist in ending the Soviet’s occupation in Afghanistan. However, the Neocons can never think past the end of their nose. They have no long-term strategies, only win what is immediately in front of them. The taliban benefited from expanded foreign military support from the United States. They then used that training against US troops who were in search of terrorists from 911.

The foolish view among the Neocons is they think bringing Democracy to the Middle East or now to Russia and China will somehow make them friends or stable is an absolute joke. The idea of creating a “Moscow Spring” by punishing the Russian people until they do what the CIS and Neocons demand does not make the costs of conflict lead worth it. Marx brought his ideas and it cost over 200 million lives to install communism. America is hated for its interference by the Neocons in many circles.

Both China and Russia have American arrogance as a common enemy and the Russian or Chinese people will not send them flowers and Xmas cards thanking them for destroy everything they have built since 1989. However, RELIABLE sources in the Middle East, the UAE, Egypt and even Israel are angry over Biden’s sanctions. Yet the Neocons claim that total isolation forced regime change in South Africa. However, they also had no military power to fight back. That is like claiming a fight is fair with one kid has a rubber band and the other a baseball bat.

Somebody in Washington needs to start thinking strategically and realistically about this endeavor to isolate Russia for all that is unfolding at a rapid rate is the disintegration of the world economy. In 1989, then President George H.W. Bush understood there were serious risks with the collapse of the Soviet Union and Communism. Russia is big and powerful enough that its role in the world economy is vital to the overall health of the international order . The US NEEDS Russia as an economic friend not and adversary for nobody will win with that result.

The Western propaganda is that Russia and China represent authoritarian rule. However, Western governments are no better. Sure, we have elections but then the candidate arrives in Washington and they are told they will vote according to the Party Agenda rendering the image of free elections only just that. In Europe, the people do not vote for the Commission which makes the laws nor for the head of state. We do not live in a Democracy for the people never are allowed to vote on an issue like war or peace.

The likelihood of Putin being overthrown and Democracy is sudden born has less than a zero change of ever being correct.

Mar 24 2022

Putin puts Biden’s King in Check


Armstrong Economics Blog/Euro € Re-Posted Mar 23, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The absolute stupidity of those in the Biden Administration will go down in history as probably the dumbest ever in the history of the world, not just the United States. Besides disrupting energy supplies, and subjecting the world to a shortage of wheat when Russia and Ukraine represent 30% of the world exports, Biden’s sheer stupidity in just reading what his staff of climate zealots tell him is beyond belief. There is a crisis unfolding even in base metals like nickel.

Removing Russian banks from SWIFT but leaving the energy intact so Europe has power, was so brilliant they obviously never played chess. Putin just put Biden’s king in check by ordering Europe to pay for gas now in Rubles. That will provide support for the Ruble, and undermine Europe and its Euro as well as the dollar in the long run.

First of all, when Biden freezes all of Russia’s reserves, why would you continue to get paid in dollars that Biden could freeze? That makes no sense. This is why I warned that using SWIFT as a political tool would destroy the world economy. There is no putting this back together again. The foundation of TRUST has been lost.

What I would do if I were Putin is to create a two-tier monetary system like South Africa once had with the Financial Rand and Domestic Rand. What I would do to put Biden in Checkmate would be to back ONLY the domestic Ruble with gold to restore confidence among the Russian people, but leave the Ruble float for international transactions – the opposite of what FDR did in 1934.

Biden has destroyed the world economy. This is so devastating going forward, that what comes post-2032 when the world economy finally crashes and burns because of these idiots, there will be a whole new regime change on a global scale.