Category The ECM

Mar 17 2022

NATO Calls up Hundreds of Thousands of Troops Ready to Begin WWIII


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Mar 17, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The pressure to start World War III is on. NATO now expects that there will be a major war with Russia and the confrontation may come even in a few weeks. The NATO Secretary-General announced an increased war alert for hundreds of thousands of soldiers. Stoltenberg issued a joint statement with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, stating that hundreds of thousands of NATO troops were placed on high alert along with 100,000 US troops.

The problem with war is that BOTH sides lie and twist the facts to support their own agenda. They paint their adversary as evil to stir up the troops to go fight and risk their lives typically for fake stories and agendas.

The Press is deliberately trying to create World War III and is engaged in using photos of children hurt and others from events unrelated to Ukraine. This is all to beat the war drums to create World War III without any honest understanding of what that will mean.

Despite the hatred and demonization of Putin, he has been trying to take the high road. Zelensky has been following his orders and refusing to compromise on anything.

As a Young World Lead, he is showing the same authoritarian approach as Trudeau in Canada as well as Australia and New Zealand who are all on board with this Great Reset.

We may see this crisis turn into a confrontation as soon as the week of April 18th going into the first week of May based upon our computer models. I am glad I spent a fair portion of my life in Europe to see all the historical monuments before these people feel the need to destroy the world over two provinces in Ukraine. I fear this time, the monuments will not survive.

Pray for civilization for we have madmen leading the West into World War III all so they can Build Back Better as they did following World War II with Bretton Woods II, but this time we are facing a completely different war with biological weapons and nuclear war.

Unfortunately, the press will NEVER tell us the truth or explain just why people are expected to lose their lives for some noble cause that is always wrong in propaganda to support a political agenda. This time, the bombs will be wiping out American cities unlike World War I and II.

Mar 17 2022

The Scheme behind the Great Reset


Armstrong Economics Blog/Great Reset Re-Posted Mar 17, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

As the press covered Zelnensky’s professional speech carried out by his acting training, he continued to try to pull on the heartstrings of the American people to further the hatred of Putin and to wage World War III. He knows what he is asking for and he is not stupid. Zelensky said on March 16 that World War III may have already started amid the Russia–Ukraine conflict. He is desperately trying to create World War III. This will end up nuclear and he is no hero, and the press had better start doing some real investigative work before it is too late.

The National Hero of Ukraine in Zelensky’s mind is Stephan Bandera who was a Ukrainian Nazi in whose name they massacred hundreds of Jews, Poles, and Russians with the same philosophy of ethnic purity. The Ukrainian Nazis were protected by the CIA and the Neocons BECAUSE they also hated Russians. The German Nazis were put on trial but the US covered up the Ukrainian Nazis because they hated Russians and that warranted their partnership.

Bandera’s monument stands in Ukraine not as a Nazi war criminal, but as a national hero. The Jews who hunted down Nazis who fled never knew the full story about the Ukrainian Nazis who the US protected.

The money that was behind Zelensky for his career came from an oligarch linked to George Soros who did what he could to make sure Zelensky knows that his repeated call for the U.S. to enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine will not spare his country – it will result in its total destruction. That will be an all-out war between the United States and Russia which will drag in China and North Korea as well as in the Balkans from Serbia and Belarus just for starters. Iran will love to join the party against the West and you can bet that will result in bombs falling on Israel.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=N_gD9-Oa0fg%3Ffeature%3Doembed%26wmode%3Dopaque

Even the latest James Bond movie was about bioweapons that can target an individual or a specific ethnicity. This is why Macron refused to take a COVID test in Russia because that would give them his DNA. The Biolabs the US has been running on the border of Russia in Ukraine and China are alleged to be engaged in creating such bioweapons. The US denies that but they also refuse to allow international observers to inspect these facilities – 130 in total.

George Soros in fact acknowledged in an interview with CNN that he actively contributed to the overthrow of former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych in 2014. He said:

“I created a foundation in Ukraine before it became independent from Russia. The foundation has functioned since then and has played an important role in current events,”

Soros supported  Volodymyr Zelenskyy for President and his friend secretly financed Zelensky – the Ukrainian oligarch Igor Kolomoisky. It was Kolomisky whose name surfaced in the Pandora Papers investigation, which was uncovered tracing money laundering by more than 600 journalists. The worldwide probe by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ), included work by journalists from the Ukrainian as well. They connected the financial dealings of Zelensky’s television production company Studio Kvartal 95 to the Ukrainian oligarch Igor Kolomoisky. Today, Kolomoisky is a person of interest in investigations in Ukraine, Britain, and the United States. However, now that Zelensky is being portrayed as a hero standing against Putin, now of this will see the light of day.

Now we have Soros out in force claiming that China in league with Russia will “destroy our civilization” when it fact Zelensky is the puppet pushing desperately for World War III so the Neocons can wage war against China and Russia and they think they will get to then usher in the Great Reset and restart the world monetary system all over again with the United Nations as the one-world governing body.

So while everyone cheers Zelensky, they have no idea what cost there will be is getting involved in Ukraine. Zelensky could have easily saved his country by just ending the idea of joining NATO, allowing the two provinces to vote on the separation as was in the Minsk Agreement of 2014, and end all claims to Crimea which was historically Russian territory that was simply assigned to Ukraine for governorship under the Soviet Union. Ukraine was never its own country before the Soviet Union.

This is all being well played and they are desperate for the people to plead for war and that will be the crowning glory for the Great Reset – a completely new world order.

Mar 17 2022

Energy Secretary Admits White House Using Ukraine Crisis as “Urgent Moment” To Transition US to Clean Energy


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on March 16, 2022 | Sundance 

Following the familiar pattern of never letting a crisis go to waste, the Biden administration has now admitted their intent, with the opportunity Ukraine represents, is to fundamentally change the U.S. energy program to Green New Deal objectives.

As they did with the COVID crisis, it is not the actual crisis that matters, but the government response to the crisis.  That response is what triggers the fundamental change.  As noted by Keeler, “there is no reason a contained conflict on the edges of Europe should be fundamentally altering the global financial system. The hysterical overreaction is doing that, as it was intended to.”

The same approach applies to oil and a totally new energy program. Jennifer Granholm claims that the crisis in Europe is an “urgent moment” to transition to “clean energy.”  Secretary Jennifer Granholm made the admission recently during remarks at a climate change discussion, while seated next to John Podesta {Direct Rumble Link}, WATCH:

Mar 16 2022

Poking the Panda


Armstrong Economics Blog/China Re-Posted Mar 16, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Japan has made the very same mistake just the following orders from Washington about seizing Russian assets. The Japanese government is freezing the assets of 17 more Russian politicians tycoons, and their relatives to step up sanctions and pressure Moscow to end its invasion of Ukraine. Russia froze, in turn, a list of US politicians which interestingly included Hillary Clinton because she was behind the whole 2000 attempt to blackmail Yeltsin which the American Press will never report no less investigate

Meanwhile, things are heating now around Taiwan as the US has for the first time in several years, sent an American aircraft carrier just outside China’s maritime waters demonstrating its’s read to launch World War III. China’s military leadership has put the country’s Armed Forces on alert for 12 days while they have now ordered the largest airborne and amphibious landing exercise in their military history.

China is moving rapidly to circumvent not just the SWIFT clearing system, but also to establish the Yuan as the next coming leading currency. The Euro has failed and China is negotiating even the purchase of oil from Saudi Arabia denominated in Yuan. The arrogance of the Neocons in really running the country has become well known outside the USA. They think they really can defeat both China and Russia and then Build Back Better with w new Bretton Woods. All I can say is they are seriously wrong and they will only create World War III, they will lose, and the financial capital of the world will shift to China. That has been the forecast of our computer for decades now and instead of listening, they try to defeat it.

The Chinese economy will peak in 2036 but the West in 2032. We are in the last three waves and 2023 does not look good around the world.

Mar 16 2022

Russia, India Exploring New Trade Payment Channels in Aftermath of Sanctions


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on March 15, 2022

The BRICS trade and economic partnership group is made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa {GO DEEP}.  The alliance was originated in part to explore alternatives to the dollar as a global trade currency.  They discussed several options in their prior meetings long before Russia took action into Ukraine.

With western sanctions against Russia now in place, there are increasing reports that China and India have developed alternatives.  This is one such example:

(Via LiveMint) – Russia, many of whose banks have been cut off from the Swift financial network, is exploring opening alternative payment channels with India, including linking Unified Payments Interface (UPI) with the Faster Payments System (FPS) of the Bank of Russia, to continue cross-border trade.

According to Dmitry A. Solodov, a spokesperson for the Russian embassy in New Delhi, his government has also asked Indian lenders to connect to the financial messaging system of the Bank of Russia to facilitate interbank transactions. In addition, the two sides are discussing accepting RuPay and MIR Cards within national payment infrastructures, Solodov said in an emailed statement.

“All these options are on the table and are being discussed by the two governments, the Reserve Bank of India and the Bank of Russia,” said a senior Indian government official, requesting anonymity. (read more)

Xi Jinping (China), Vladimir Putin (Russia), Jair Bolsonaro (Brazil), Narendra Modi (India) and Cyril Ramaphosa (South Africa), the BRICS group.
Mar 16 2022

Producer Price Inflation Sets New Record at 10 Percent, No Relief in Sight


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on March 15, 2022 | Sundance

The “Producer Price Index” (PPI) is essentially the tracking of wholesale prices at three stages: Origination (commodity), Intermediate (processing), and then Final (to wholesale). Today, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) released February price data [Available Here] showing a dramatic 10.0% increase year-over-year in Final Demand products at the wholesale level.  This is the highest rate of inflation in the PPI ever recorded.

The single month increase in wholesale prices of 2.4% was driven by inflation built into the supply chain at every level that shows up in the final wholesale price.  Those price increases then get passed along to consumers along with the additional costs for warehousing, transportation and delivery.  I modified Table-A to take out some of the noise.

The January, December and November data was also revised significantly upward, and a sketchy footnote is included in the data. “Some of the figures … in this release may differ from those previously reported because data for October 2021 through January 2022 have been revised to reflect the availability of late reports and corrections.”   Remember that temporary drop in December, yeah, that’s wiped out now.

The reason the total demand inflation number is 0.8% is only because inflation in the service sector is lower than inflation in the goods sector.  Two reasons: (1) energy costs embed in goods first before services; and (2) when inflation on goods squeezes budgeted consumers, less services are demanded.

Unfortunately, there is nothing upstream in the supply chain and manufacturing pipeline to suggest that higher prices at the retail level are not coming.  The price of raw materials, and the wholesale energy costs to process those materials into finished goods, are still rising.  Factually, the recent massive increase in fuel and transportation cost is not included in this data.

You can see clearly in Table-B (again, cleaned up) the wave of inflation that took place in April through October 2021.  Inflation is backward looking, so when prices have already doubled in the previous year and the compounding price goes up another 35% this year, well essentially that’s another doubling when compared to 2020.   Put another way, raw materials (unprocessed intermediate goods) have tripled in price in the last two years.

In my estimation, the massive price increases the bureau quantified through January were the end of the first wave of massive inflation that CTH warned about last October.

“Do what you can do now to start preparing your weekly budget in ways you may not have thought about before.   Shop sales, use coupons, look for discounts and products that can be reformulated into multiple meals or multiple uses.   Shelf-stable food products that can be muti-purposed with proteins is a good start. Consider purchasing the raw materials for cleaning products and reformulate them yourself to avoid these massive increases in petroleum costs.” [October Warning]

The recent announcement of price increases we have discussed, from food producers specifically (Kraft-Heinz, Proctor and Gamble, etc.), in combination with massive fertilizer and farming costs for future yield, is the second wave that has yet to be fully quantified.  The second wave of retail inflation, only just beginning to arrive now in the February results, will extend throughout the spring.

Next month, March data reported in April, the second wave of inflation data should carry the first big jumps in gas and diesel prices.  For ordinary people, this next round of food inflation will be focused predominantly in the ‘Fresh Foods‘ categories.  Fresh produce, vegetables and fruits have short life cycles, and rapid increases in transportation costs hit that segment fast and hard.

On the positive side, our victory gardens are going up in value, very quickly.   A few backyard growing boxes can generate an easy $200 to $500/month in fresh produce as the price of ordinary row crops at the store starts to double and triple.  Mature citrus trees are worth their weight in gold right now.

FJB!

https://youtube.com/watch?v=sujYdw_tJUc%3Ffeature%3Doembed
Mar 14 2022

Distrust is the Default


Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM Re-Posted Mar 14, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Public confidence has plummeted. People across the world have lost faith in their governments, economy, and overall futures. The 2022 Edelman Trust Barometer surveyed 36,000 respondents from 28 countries in November 2021. Similar sentiments are being felt across the world as inflation, civil unrest, and war continues to wreak havoc on our lives with no signs of slowing.

Nearly half of all respondents stated that they viewed the government (48%) and media (46%) as divisive forces in society. “We find a world ensnared in a vicious cycle of distrust, fueled by a growing lack of faith in media and government. Through disinformation and division, these two institutions are feeding the cycle and exploiting it for commercial and political gain,” the poll found. The propaganda propelled by the media is so blatant that it cannot be ignored by anyone regardless of their political standing. Honest journalists are jailed while the others promote an agenda. The media quickly adverted our attention to the war in Ukraine and rapidly downplayed their coverage on COVID. Fauci’s face was an unavoidable daily presence in the press for years until the war began. Where is he now? The same thing happened when the Black Lives Matter riots dominated the news until Joe Biden was elected president as their mission was accomplished. The governments are responsible for changing the narrative provided to the public by the media who have become misinformation peddlers.

However, people are now looking at the private sector to solve societal problems. The private sector is not capable or responsible for doing the government’s job, but people worldwide would prefer it if it were. “We see an even greater expectation of business to lead as trust in government continues to spiral,” the survey noted. Around 49% of respondents want businesses to fix economic inequality, while 46% believe they are responsible for reskilling the workforce. A surprising 52% of respondents believe the private sector is responsible for cyclical climate change.

Conclusion: “Failure of leadership makes distrust the default.” Our model indicates that people will continue to seek refuge from the private sector, with the intensity increasing to a level not seen in our lifetimes.

Mar 14 2022

Trying to Figure Out Why the World is So Precise


Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM Re-Posted Mar 13, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION #1: Marty;
Long-time reader, pro member. First of all, thank you for confirming suspicions from my youth that there are cycles everywhere and for expanding the ideas enabling me to see that everything is connected.
I agree w/ you that the financial center of the world is headed back to China. My question, however, is this. China is currently undergoing its own economic problems in banking and real estate putting pressure on the populace and hence, upon the CCP. What does Socrates say China will look like come 2032+? How will the Chinese society change and how will this change influence the world at large post-2032?

VT

QUESTION #2: Marty, I am flabbergasted that you said in 2013 that Ukraine was the place this all begins. Your long-range forecasts are beyond what anyone has ever done. I find it appalling that these sites like ______  post everyone but you because they are closet gold bugs. This is about helping society understand how the world works for which you should get the Noble Prize. These sites ignore you because they too are no different than the people they claim to oppose. They only preach their own theories.

My question is, have you made any progress in understanding how your model makes these forecasts nobody else can do?

HF

ANSWER: I believe the world is so COMPLEX that there is no possibility of humans analyzing and forecasting the future from a personal gut feeling on a consistent basis. Yes, there are people who hate me because they do not like a forecast. They are just fools and you cannot ever win an argument with a fool. Life is all about keeping an open mind and learning everything we can. Perhaps that is what people call an old soul.

It is true that you see advertisements of some guy who claims he called some crash. One forecast can be nothing but dumb luck the same as a broken clock is still correct twice each day. I have been pursuing this phenomenon of trying to understand how the world REALLY works for decades. I too have found it fascinating how the model can make so many forecasts to the very day – not just one and it is all mathematical which cannot be fudged. I believe this simply reveals that there is a hidden order to everything. It reminds me of the conflict I saw in school between Physics class and Economics. The first said there is nothing random and the latter said everything was random so we can eliminate the business cycle and prevent depressions and recession. Physics was correct – economics was wrong.

Yes, on December 3rd, 2013, I posted: “Ukraine Maybe The Most Important Country To Watch.” I wrote:

“The War Cycle turns up next year. Because Kiev was the first capital of Russia, this is really important. Ukraine is between Russia and Europe and is being torn apart. Russia’s pride is on the chopping block and this is the real center of the struggle for Russia.”

If you watch Ukraine of Fire, it will help you better understand this critical crossroads that will bring the world to WWIII. Perhaps you will understand that there is a lot more to Ukraine than the fake news presents. We face a crisis where there are people who once again think they know better than everyone else and that they alone have the answer as to how the world should work. They are the typical academic economists who think that the business cycle is nonsense and that they can temper, control, and manipulate society into a perfect state of harmony.

What 2032 represents is the complete collapse in government precisely as we saw with the American Revolution which brought the downfall of the monarchy. This was the birth of republics once again and we will move back to a new form of government that may be hard to visualize. The current system of socialism is collapsing. Politicians only know how to bribe people for votes rather than present themselves as efficient managers of the state. Socialism has allowed the invasion of all of our rights. They can put in a billionaire’s tax and everyone will cheer. You then must file revealing your wealth to prove you are not a billionaire. Every regulative imposition on one group necessitates the same control on everyone else.

I hope that when the system falls like a tree being sawed off at its base, it will fall in the direction of democracy rather than a republic. But all forms of government will be confronted with a new wave of change.