Category U. S. WOKE Culture

Dec 15 2021

US Producer Price Index Reaches 11-Year High


Armstrong Economics Blog/Inflation Re-Posted Dec 15, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) for November reached an 11-year high, according to the Labor Department. The PPI for final demand rose 0.8% in November, the index for final demand services increased 0.7%, and prices for final demand goods moved up 1.2%. Alarmingly, the final demand PPI soared 9.6% for the 12 months ending in November, marking the fastest 12-month advance since November 2020 when that data was first collected. Core PPI advanced 6.9%, marking the largest spike since August 2014. As a reminder, this measures the average price movement established by domestic producers for goods and services sold both domestically and internationally.

Companies are facing higher costs, and that cost is passed on to the consumer. As a result, the Consumer Price Index rose 0.8% in November, marking a 6.8% increase in inflation on an annual basis. The Labor Department noted that this was the fastest pace of inflation since June 1982.

These levels are unsustainable. The Fed’s 2% inflation target seems laughable considering prices in every area continuously rise with no end in sight. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has stated that the central bank would step in with a more aggressive policy if they saw runaway inflation. How high do prices need to rise for the central bank to take action?

Dec 15 2021

Make-A-Wish Denies Unvaccinated Boy’s Dying Wish – Don’t Donate to Them!


Armstrong Economics Blog/Vaccine Re-Posted Dec 15, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

The hatred toward the unvaccinated population has become so alarming that the risk of violence is imminent. Heartbreakingly, the Make-A-Wish Foundation has refused a 4-year-old child his dying wish because he is not vaccinated. Rocco, a terminally ill boy from Staten Island, New York, wanted to meet Mickey Mouse in Disney World, as many kids do.

Not to worry – Rocco will have a chance to meet Mickey and friends. Wigs and Wishes, a more ethical non-profit organization, will pay for Rocco and his family to visit Disney World in Orlando, Florida.

The Make-A-Wish Foundation quickly retracted its policy to deny end of life wishes to unvaccinated children. However, the company’s “vaccine policy” still prevents unvaccinated children from large gatherings or air travel. “Make-A-Wish’s recent decision regarding how to begin to lift some restrictions for wishes involving air travel and large gatherings was made to protect the health of children with critical illnesses in response to the COVID-19 pandemic […] There are many other wish options for children who do not currently meet the requirements for air travel and events involving large gatherings,” the company stated.

This child is terminally ill, under 5, and likely cannot risk any adverse reactions from the vaccine. This is not about preventing COVID from spreading but rather another attempt to punish those who chose not to be vaccinated.

Dec 15 2021

Fauci Actually For Once Spoke the Truth – Do Not Vaccinate Your Children


Armstrong Economics Blog/Vaccine Re-Posted Dec 15, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

These are experimental vaccines that have NEVER before been approved, nor tested on such a wide scale of human society. Fauci admits that they used vaccines just a few years ago that made children more likely to get the disease. Our problem is that the politicians have used this as part of the agenda to force Schwab’s Great Reset. I have spoken to others in the documentary film industry who also had information in advance that a “virus was coming.”

With the track record of vaccines, it takes 12 years normally to get approval from the FDA – not months or weeks. Do not experiment with your children. I have four grandchildren who got COVID as did their parents. The children had very mild symptoms compared to their parents who were sick for about 10 days. When they met others who were vaccinated and still got sick, they did not get sick thanks to their natural immunity.

Any doctor who tells you the political line, find another for they have surrendered all medical training for politics and peer pressure. This is not high school. CAUTION should be the wise decision of a parent. We do not know if these vaccines will still be considered safe 2 years from now. Independent analysis is already warning that these vaccines are not safe for humans. To think that politicians are mandating them with huge penalties without any understanding of the long-term impact is disgraceful and may prove to be a crime against humanity.

Dec 15 2021

The Sanctimonious, Insufferable and Clownish Liz Cheney Seeks Revenge for Republican Ridicule


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on December 14, 2021 | Sundance | 204 Comments

The intemperate Wyoming Representative Liz Cheney is on a hate-filled kamikaze mission to attack the base of the political party she abhors. {Direct Rumble Link Here}

Previously, Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski set the low bar for contempt against the Tea Party movement, however, this week Liz Cheney says ‘hold my beer’ and goes all in against the MAGA base.  Ugly is as ugly does – inside and outside.

(WaPo) – Rep. Liz Cheney’s disclosures of intriguing Jan. 6 text messages between Mark Meadows and both Donald Trump Jr. and Fox News personalities are the big news in the committee’s investigation right now. But don’t lose sight of what Cheney said immediately after she read those texts aloud.” (more)

Deep State alum Ms. Liz Cheney is desperately trying to use her position on the ridiculous January 6th committee to gain position inside the DC system.  As a person with no redeeming qualities, the DC swamp is about the only place where her unlikable lawfare skills still have some marketing viability.

As the Washington Post notes, Cheney is desperate to attach some element of criminal lawbreaking to President Trump.   Cheney was pointing to a specific criminal statute — a felony, 18 U.S. Code § 1512 — that she suggests President Donald Trump violated.

Cheney’s comment matches the language of the statute. It states, “Whoever corruptly … obstructs, influences, or impedes any official proceeding, or attempts to do so, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than 20 years, or both.” That law defines an “official proceeding” as including “a proceeding before the Congress.”

Is there a more self-centered, arrogant, smug and narcissistic member of the current Republican Party?  I cannot think of one.

Dec 15 2021

Despite High Vaccination Rate Amtrak Suspends Vaccine Mandate, The Background Tells A Story


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on December 14, 2021 | Sundance | 226 Comments

Reuters is reporting on an interesting dynamic within the vaccine mandate as it pertains to Amtrak.  Reading between the lines tells us something very specific about this vaccine mandate that we have discussed here, and it’s starting to show.

The article itself points to how Amtrak is suspending their vaccine mandate as a result of the federal courts blocking enforcement of any mandate pending litigation.  From their perspective as a federal contractor, Amtrak is now in a position to cease the vaccine requirement until the legal issues are resolved.  However, there’s an element touched upon that needs to be considered.

First the article (the emphasis is mine):

WASHINGTON, Dec 14 (Reuters) – U.S. passenger railroad Amtrak said on Tuesday it will temporarily suspend a vaccine mandate for employees and now no longer expects to be forced to cut some service in January. In a memo seen by Reuters, Amtrak Chief Executive Bill Flynn said the railroad would allow employees who were not vaccinated to get tested.

Currently, fewer than 500 active Amtrak employees are not in compliance. Last week, the railroad told Congress it anticipated “proactively needing to temporarily reduce some train frequencies across our network” because of the mandate.

Flynn said 95.7% of Amtrak’s 17,000 employees are either fully vaccinated or have an accommodation — and including employees with one dose 97.3% of employees are in compliance.

Amtrak cited a U.S. district court decision that halted the enforcement of President Joe Biden’s executive order mandating vaccines for federal contractors by January. “This caused the company to reevaluate our policy and to address the uncertainty about the federal requirements that apply to Amtrak,” the memo said. (read more)

Let’s cut through some politically correct corporate speech and media spin, and instead focus on a few key aspects:

First, the cause of the operational change, a frequency change in Amtrak service, was specifically admitted to be due to the vaccine mandate.  This is EXACTLY the opposite of the White House claim earlier today (see below).  The vaccine mandate was the cause of the operational change.  Amtrak admits this – the White House refutes this.

Second, a reduction of 500 non-vaccinated people amid a company payroll exceeding 17,000, to the extent that the reduction actually changes the operational service of the company, tells us the unvaccinated people were specifically critical to the service the company provides.

This second point gets to the heart of a thesis we have proposed before.   It’s not an issue of how many people, or what percentage, quit over a vaccine requirement.  It’s a more specific issue of WHO those people are and what they do.

In any organization, there are people critical to the operation and people not so critical.

In a cumbersome top-heavy organization, that relies upon government largess and subsidy to operate, employment is bloated beyond what is efficient.  I have long stated that the key group of most productive people, the very critical group for efficient operation, are a small subset of the total company employment.

I would bet, and it is essentially admitted by the statement from Amtrak, that a much higher percentage of the critical workers are refusing the vaccine than exist in the total employment ranks.  The most productive and critical employees within any organization are independent minded, dependable and capable of a much larger influence than the average person.  It is inside that core group of highly critical employees where effects from a vaccine mandate refusal makes the biggest impact.

As a result, the issue for any mandate is not the percentage of compliance overall, but rather how those very critical employees respond to the mandate.

There can be a specific skillset or duty needed in an organization, even a massive organization, that is only being done by a handful of specifically skilled people.  If those people stop working, the effect on the entire organization is far beyond scale.   In some instances, even in large organizations, that handful of people can shut down the entire operation if they do not perform their job(s).

500 out of 17,000 is only 3%,… yet that 3% were obviously critical enough to the operation of Amtrak in such a scale as the organization was planning to modify it’s entire operation due to their absence.   This fact points as evidence to the theory that the most critical blue-collar people inside every organization carry a tremendous amount of clout when it comes to this vaccine mandate.

It’s not a matter of how many refuse the mandate, it’s an issue of who they are.

The blue-collar effort to bolster the resistance by these brothers and sisters in freedom, does not have to be too massive to have an impact. Remember, almost all of the leftists and elite-minded communists, who now operate as Democrats, have no capacity for self-sufficiency.  If the working class stops picking up their trash, stops mowing their lawns, shopping for them, doing their cleaning and essentially facilitating their lives, this entire group of people cannot function.

If the always dependable shift-worker who never misses a day of work; the person who is always dutiful, diligent, trustworthy and can solve problems independently; the person who goes the extra mile and is proactive in planning their responsibilities, does not show up with the keys to be the switch operator, well, then the switch doesn’t get operated.  And, that person is very hard to replace.

Remember, the part where Amtrak said the change in service schedules was due to the vaccine? Well, here’s the White House denying the change in Amtrak services was caused by the vaccine.  WATCH:

From a commonsense and logistical perspective, regardless of the federal outlook, there’s no way they can pull it off.  We are the quiet, and according to those who look down their noses – the “invisible” unwashed masses.  However, when it comes to keeping the gears turning, we are the majority.

We keep their shit working and just want to be left alone.   The system will not function if tens-of-millions of American workers stand united against the vaccine mandate. It really is that simple.

Dec 15 2021

EUREKA, Someone Finally Points Out The Obvious


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on December 14, 2021 | Sundance | 142 Comments

Finally!  Good grief, it’s been a long wait to see someone on the TV pointing out the obvious.

CNBC’s Steve Liesman points out what all the financial pundits keep ignoring.

The price of raw material at origination is still climbing…. which means the prices of intermediate manufacturing goods will keep climbing… which means the prices of finished goods (to wholesalers) will keep climbing…..  which means consumer prices will keep climbing.   WATCH:

♦Here’s the kicker.  The rate of raw material price increases are still higher than the rate of intermediate price increases, which are still higher than the rate of price increases in finished goods, which are still higher than the rate of price increases in consumer goods (retail).

As long as the rate of price increase for raw material, the very first step in the supply chain, remains higher than the rate of the price increase for the next step in the process, then you can guarantee future prices will go up.  It’s a simple and commonsense way to look forward when evaluating inflation.

If the stuff starts at a higher price (day one), the end product at day 90 will be at a higher price than today.  This is how you can tell that inflation is not slowing down.  The first sign of inflation easing is when the rate of inflation for raw material is lower than the rate of inflation in the next step.

Dec 15 2021

November Producer Prices Rise Record Breaking 9.6 Percent Year Over Year, Biggest Single Month in History, as Massive Inflation Builds Within The Supply Chain – Again, No Signs of Slowing Down


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on December 14, 2021 | Sundance | 280 Comments

We said it was happening {Go Deep}, and it is.  Last month CTH put the preparation window at 60 days +/- depending on region.  That window is now around 30 days before the next spike in inflation shows up from cumulative costs snowballing throughout the supply chain. The “producer price index” is essentially the tracking of wholesale prices at three stages: Origination (commodity), Intermediate and Final.

The final product inflation rate in July (reported in August) was alarming at 7.8%. However, we warned it would get worse. The Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) then released stunning price data for October [DATA Here], showing an even more dramatic 8.6% price increase in final demand. More intense warnings shared.

Today, we get the November BLS Result [DATA Here], and unfortunately the results are showing what was expected.  The cumulative costs of massive increases in energy prices are building into the supply at an astonishing rate.  The November data shows a rate of wholesale final goods inflation at 9.6%, the largest single month comparative rate increase in history.

The bureau even went back and revised/increased the August price index from 7.8 to 8.4 percent, and revised/increased the October figure from 8.6 to 8.8 percent.  The average monthly price increase is almost a full percent… every month.  It looks like the BLS backward revisions are an attempt to smooth down the rate of increase.

(BLS) – “The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.8 percent in November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved up 0.6 percent in each of the 3 prior months. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index rose 9.6 percent for the 12 months ended in November, the largest advance since 12-month data were first calculated in November 2010.” (more)

I modified Table A (final demand product pricing), taking out some of the noise to make it a little easier to see the big picture of what is happening.

When you see the wholesale level of prices almost double the increase in consumer level inflation rate, you can predict that consumer prices will likely go even higher.  Future finished goods, at a retail level, will carry the current wholesale price increase.

Stuff costs a lot now… and because the inbound stuff to make the finished goods is still climbing in price…. stuff is about to cost even more.   You can see this in the inflation rate of intermediate goods which I have highlighted below.

You can see from Table A (above) that finished good prices are still climbing.  That’s the higher price inflation you are feeling when you buy a product.

More alarming is to look at the “intermediate demand” products [Table B below] as they flow through the manufacturing system.  Two types of products are at the intermediate wholesale level:  Processed Goods, and Unprocessed goods.

I have again modified Table B (above) to remove the noise.  Notice two key aspects:

(1) Prices for both types of products are still climbing in the manufacturing process.  Compare August, Sept., Oct., and now November, noticing how the prices are still climbing.  Some of that has to do with energy and fuel costs still climbing.  The increasing price for gasoline is built into each part of the transportation process.

(2) Notice the scale of the increase in the prices from prior months.  The trend line is not leveling off, instead it’s doing the opposite.  The rate of inflationary climb (price increase), at the intermediate level of goods coming into the system, is getting even more steep.  The stuff coming into the manufacturing process is not only costing more, it is costing much more than before.

The wholesale prices of products into the system that end up at the retail level are still through the roof. In a major way, this is being driven by massive increases in energy costs throughout the entire supply chain.

This is going to get even uglier. Even if wages jumped in price 5% overnight (single month), which would be a large increase in wages, those wage increases are nowhere near enough to deal with this level of price increase at a consumer level. A nickel more per dollar earned is futile against a loaf of bread costing $1 more, or gasoline at $4.00/gal.

Do what you can now to start preparing your weekly budget in ways you may not have thought about before. Shop sales, use coupons, look for discounts and products that can be reformulated into multiple meals or multiple uses. Shelf-stable food products that can be muti-purposed with proteins is a good start.

Consider purchasing the raw materials for cleaning products, and reformulate them yourself to avoid these massive increases in petroleum costs.

Remember, when inflation hits like this, you can NATURALLY expect an eventual demand side response.  People will stop purchasing things, because those things are just too expensive.  When that happens, the inflationary spike can/will start to level off as the demand slows and excess inventory builds, albeit with higher prices built into the unaffordable existing inventory.

Unfortunately this drop in demand, a contraction in the economy, is what’s known as a recession. That leads to layoffs and unemployment, which only exacerbates the problems and puts downward pressure on wages – while the prices remain high.

Joe Biden spending more to try and subsidize people through this inflationary economic cycle only makes things worse for the middle class.  More spending results in more inflation, which requires more subsidy, which requires more spending, which creases more inflation.

Your goal is to prepare yourself and your family for that moment when the economy starts contracting – yet prices remain high.   If you can avoid future expenses by taking action before the highest prices hit, you will be in a better position.  Be proactive with your household maintenance, and think about things that normally hit your monthly budget unexpectedly.

Try to avoid any unexpected expenses your memory provides you, by doing what you can do now.

Act or be acted upon.

Protect your family.  Even if, heck, especially if, your kids or grandkids cannot see what is coming.  Prepare yourself to help them even if they don’t know, or won’t admit, they will need the help. Be wise in your counsel, but do not alarm.  Do not distress yourself with dark imaginings. Fellowship is not only needed, it is critical.

It is empowering to be prepared for the storms of life, just as it is to be prepared in advance of storms from weather.

Dec 14 2021

The Ocean Shipping Reform Act


Armstrong Economics Blog/North America Re-Posted Dec 14, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

American farmers are struggling to send their goods overseas as the East simply does not want American exports. The Ocean Shipping Reform Act passed in the House last week due to Asian carriers “unfairly decimating against American cargo.” Five major Asian liners have been accused of offloading goods at American ports and returning empty-handed, refusing to take American cargo back with them. The US agriculture industry is highly reliant on California ports that are now described as cargo parking lots as there are not enough workers to offload boats. In addition to these supply chain delays, discrimination against American products is causing countless containers filled with agricultural goods to rot.

“Unfortunately because it’s an oligopoly…. you’ve got to take it or leave it if you’re an American shipper,” Rep. Dusty Johnson noted. “The terms often say that liquidated damages for you canceling a container is $100. Well there can be $100,000 of goods in each container.” Johnson pointed to an issue with a cheese manufacturer in South Dakota who has 2 million pounds of lactose awaiting shipment in a warehouse. That shipment sat on the dock for 75 days, spoiled, and over $25,000 was lost. Johnson also used the example of pork, which is a hot commodity in Asia. Non-frozen pork, in particular, goes for a premium. As a result, producers have been forced to freeze numerous pork shipments to Asia, diluting the profits.

The Ocean Shipping Reform Act will go to the Senate before being presented to President Joe Biden. “If you’re going to use this shared infrastructure, you’re going to play fair, and you’re not going to have unprecedented levels of rejection of American cargo – which is what we’re seeing actual rejection a refusal to take this cargo,” Johnson said.

Dec 14 2021

I will Survive Fauci


Armstrong Economics Blog/Humor Re-Posted Dec 14, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

GREAT SONG

Dec 14 2021

Senator Joe Manchin Not Convinced to Vote For Massive Build Back Better Spending Bill – Curiously WaPo Launches Investigation of Joe Manchin Finances


Posted originally on the conservative tree house December 13, 2021 | Sundance | 132 Comments

I’m not confident that Joe Manchin will ultimately hold the line on more spending; however, it is interesting that on the same day Manchin is reported to be casting doubt on more Joe Biden social spending {LINK}, the Washington Post published a hitjob on him around his family finances {LINK}.

Accepting there are no coincidences in politics, it would appear the intelligence agencies are firing a warning shot against Senator Manchin based on his financial connections to the West Virginia coal industry.

(New York Times) – WASHINGTON — Senator Joe Manchin III of West Virginia, the most prominent Democratic holdout on President Biden’s $2.2 trillion social safety net, climate and tax bill, cast fresh doubt on Monday on his party’s plans to speed the measure through the Senate before Christmas, saying he still had grave concerns about how it would affect the economy.

Mr. Manchin outlined his skepticism before speaking by telephone about the bill with Mr. Biden, a discussion that aides to both later characterized as positive. After the call, Mr. Manchin, who represents West Virginia, did not rule out the possibility of supporting the measure this month. He said that “anything is possible here” when asked about a vote before Christmas, and that he was still “engaged” in conversations with the White House.

But in a 50-50 Senate where Democrats would need all of their party’s votes to push through the legislation over unanimous Republican opposition, Mr. Manchin’s reluctance to embrace it has helped freeze the measure in place. (read more)

Every article written about the Build Back Better/Social Spending/Green New Deal bill, carries a totally different price tag.   The New York Times says $2.2 trillion.  Politico said $1.6 trillion, and other media like CBS have put the figure around $3 trillion. Regardless, Joe Manchin has reservations about it.

Those reservations have apparently triggered the ‘six ways to Sunday‘ deep state….

(Washington Post) – In Sen. Joe Manchin III’s hilly West Virginia home county, his family’s business has made millions by taking waste coal from long-abandoned mines and selling it to a power plant that emits air pollution at a higher rate than any other plant in the state.

That enterprise could have taken a hit under a key part of President Biden’s climate agenda, a $150 billion plan to push coal plants toward cleaner energy. One lawmaker, though, played a central role in killing that proposal: Manchin, who has earned hundreds of thousands of dollars annually from the family coal company while using his role as a Democratic swing vote in a 50-50 Senate to dictate Biden’s policies.

When pressed about whether he has a conflict of interest, Manchin bristles. “I have been in a blind trust for 20 years. I have no idea what they’re doing,” the senator told reporters in September, referring to his family’s coal firm. “You got a problem?”

But contrary to his public statements, documents filed by the senator show the blind trust is much too small to account for all his reported earnings from the coal company, as of his latest financial disclosure report, which covers 2020 and was filed in May. (read more)

Nice investment portfolio you have there Joe, it’d be a shame if something happened to it.