QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; It is obvious that you have indeed been behind the curtain for your knowledge of even global politics is amazing. Kim Jong Un is here in Beijing. You said he would back down. You said the risk of war lies in the Middle East, not Korea. Your model calls the markets. You said the Dow would bounce for two days and then turn down. Even that took place today. Where do you begin and the computer ends?
UGH
ANSWER: That is a hard question to answer. The computer can show me the region for conflict. That is determined by cyclical trends for each region yet at times it is augmented by a combination of capital flows. Picking things like the fall of communism back in 1989 and picking when the Berlin Wall would fall were based cyclically on the outcome of that trend. That was 72 years from the Russian Revolution of 1917. That was the perfect target for the volatility models within the ECM. Both converged so it made it really a piece of cake.
The collapse of the Soviet Union came in 1991, that was a simple 2-year reactionary process all within a cyclical forecast. Now, the collapse of the Russian bond market which set in motion a major contagion and the Long-Term Capital Management debacle was determined from a capital flow and cyclical perspective. That came 8.6 years following the fall of the Berlin Wall. When that forecast made the front page of the second section of the FT, that is when even the CIA came. They suddenly realized that our model could forecast the rise and fall of nations. But that is also when the bankers began to complain to the CFTC and SEC that I was “manipulating” the world economy because they were all long Russian bonds and blamed me for their losses using the FT article as proof. They said I had too much “influence” rather than consider the possibility that just maybe we were able to forecast events that they thought bribing politicians would prevent.
The above chart is calculated from the day the Berlin Wall fell – November 9th, 1989. Our forecast for the fall of the Russian financial system in 1998 was 8,6 years from the fall of the Berlin Wall. But look at the dates beyond that 2002 (low in the US market post-DOT.COM Bubble), 2007 (the peak in the world economy & start of real estate meltdown), 2015 (Russia invade Syria, Refugees welcomed into Europe by Merkel, start of the rise in interest rates at the Fed), and the dates to come are 2019, 2024, 2028, and 2037.
This is the collapse of socialism which is the collapse of pensions and will result in a new monetary system. We will see 2019 as a financial crisis and 2024 as a rise in commodity prices.
Each domino is set in motion by the previous. Yes, my experience behind the curtain allows me to understand the real risks, but the model defines where they are and the computer will continue to write reports when I am gone.
Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross appears on Fox Business News for an extensive interview with Maria Bartiromo. The interview covers a wide spectrum of important topics attached to the U.S. economy and ongoing trade deals. Two great video segments for the interview will get you up to speed on ongoing initiatives:
♦Segment #1 outlines the upcoming announcement of KORUS, the South Korea and U.S. trade deal. Additionally, Secretary Ross discusses the steel and aluminum tariffs and how they enmesh in the larger objective of the ongoing trade negotiations with China:
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♦Segment #2 outlines more on the aluminum and steel tariffs; ongoing trade talks with Europe; efforts to renegotiate NAFTA, and the possibility of a deal being reached; Saudi Arabian investment in the U.S. and the Commerce Department plans to bring back a citizenship question in the 2020 Census.
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Worth noting the reaction to Maria Bartiromo at 02:45 of the video centered around the question of the “lefty winning in Mexico“, etc. It would appear, based on hidden grinning, the trade team is anticipating a socialist victory in the Mexican election which would likely end up with Mexico wanting to cancel NAFTA due to loggerheads with the U.S.
It is additionally likely Canada’s Chrystina Freeland would lose her NAFTA cohort Mexican Foreign Minister Ildefonso Guajardo. Through seven rounds of NAFTA talks Freeland and Guarjardo have tag-teamed against Ambassador Robert Lighthizer (U.S.).
National Trade Council Director Peter Navarro appeared on CNBC, prior to today’s massive U.S. stock market increase, to discuss ongoing trade initiatives.
U.S.T.R. Robert Lighthizer is currently conducting simultaneous bilateral trade negotiations with South Korea, Philippines, Vietnam, Australia, China (way-points), Japan, Mexico/Canada (NAFTA) and the European Union.
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; It appears that now the Bundesbank has adopted your view of rising interest rates. How fast do you see rates rising?
PY
ANSWER: Yes, the Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann has come out and warned that banks should start to make provisions for interest rate risks associated with rising interest rates. The normalization of the interest rates is essential and as always, it is now too little too late. The economic environment is changing much more rapidly than most suspect. It is true that the German banks have increased their equity significantly since the financial crisis. While the central banks are warning that rates are rising, they misjudge the fact that banks are by no means as resilient as they were before the 2007-2009 crisis.
German 10-year rates will start to rise rapidly following a monthly closing above 0.79%. The next stop will be 2% and thereafter, we will see a test of the 4% level. Once we exceed the 2007 high of 4.67%, we will see a rapid rise to the 5.6% area and an annual closing above that will warn of a test of the 8.5%-11% zone and that can be easily by 2020.
One day soon, the world will suddenly discover that the European project is authoritarian because they believe the people as stupid and politicians know better. When that day dawns, the crisis in Europe will erupt in total shock and this will undermine the entire economy which has rapidly fallen to even behind China. At the core of this true European Crisis is the fact that individual human rights come behind the rights of politicians. Make no mistake about it, politicians in the West secretly admire China where some view the model for democracy in the West as crumbling before their eyes.
Germany has arrested the former Catalan Prime Minister Carles Puigdemont enforcing Spain’s dictatorship and anti-Democratic government to save the EU. Spain is by NO MEANS a democratic nation and evidence of that statement is the Spanish Constitution. It exempts all politicians and Judges holding them above the law and denies the right of the people to even disagree with the government. Puigdemont was arrested on the German-Danish border traveling from Finland to Belgium. The state police office in Kiel announced that Puigdemont had been arrested and the charge is advocating a democratic vote in Catalonia to separate from Spain. This is the most outrageous legal persecution that has taken place since the Communist Revolution in Russia who imprisoned or killed anyone who opposed them.
Puigdemont proclaimed Catalonia’s independence from Spain in October, that Madrid says violating the constitution. Their interpretation of their Constitution is permanent slavery no different from the positions of France and Britain that justified the French and American Revolutions. Then the Spanis judiciary began investigations into rebellion and charged Puigdemont and other leading separatists who were forced to then flee to Belgium into exile. Clearly, anyone one charges with a political crime MUST leave Europe for the governments will conspire to save the EU.
Puigdemont went to Finland to attend a conference and Spain submitted an application for the arrest of the deposed regional president. Finland then agreed to arrest Puigdemont so he fled to return to Belgium. Germany intercepted him and arrested him and he now faces 25 years in prison where he will certainly die. Spain’s Supreme Court opened criminal proceedings against Puigdemont and other regional politicians. Imprisoning people for their political ideas has been the hallmark of tyranny. It is a sad day to watch the ruthless behavior of the Spanish government and its Judiciary is a disgrace to the nation and the Spanish people.
The entire problem underlying this crisis exposes the Spanish Constitution that NEVER truly provided a democratic nation for it did not provide a workable transition from dictatorship to democracy. This Spanish Constitution is a contradictory document that denies any democratic resolution or process and maintains the Franco Dictatorship. In Spain, all members of parliament, including those in regional parliaments, enjoy immunity, judges cannot be dismissed. The Constitution defines political parties as “the main instrument of political participation” (Article 6), giving them a role that goes far beyond the process of public opinion-making, as understood in most democracies.
In Spain, the self-interest of government prevails over the rights of the individual. This is the plain reading of Article 155 (see below). The Franco regime organized the Society around its National Movement and the vertical, professional syndicates. Therefore, it was not even the people as a whole that was considered to be the nation but the party. Following the dictator’s death, Spain did open up to political and trade union pluralism, but there was no real redefining revision of Franco’s means of dictatorship. The citizens do not vote for deputies, but closed lists of a party whose candidates move into Parliament depending on the number of votes. MPs do not have offices in their constituencies.
There is no actual representative form of government when you look closely at the structure. There is no actual accountability for the political party itself and they are isolated from the public opinion and their own base. This is why political corruption runs ramped in Spain – there is no actual direct representation or accountability. The Spanish section of Transparency International called on the parties to abolish the closed lists and publish their campaign budgets no later than three months after the election back in 2014. Nothing has been done.
The entire Spanish Constitution contradicts the EuropeanConvention onHuman Rights (ECHR) is an international treaty to protect human rights and fundamental freedoms in Europe. Article 10 of the ECHR provides the right to freedom of expression and information, subject to certain restrictions that are “in accordance with law” and “necessary in a democratic society”. This right includes the freedom to hold opinions and to receive and impart information and ideas. However, the Spanish Constitution outright contradicts Article 10 by its Article 155. Clearly, the Spanish Constitution was no more than a compromise between democracy and Francoism. Above all, the fathers of the Spanish Constitution wanted to prevent a civil war by retaining an authoritative clause that allowed dictatorial action. The new constitution was therefore settled between an authoritarian, national Catholic leader system and a democracy and has never actually placed individual liberties in a role of importance violating the very idea of human rights.
The Spanis government will undoubtedly fall. It will be 43 years and ripe for its complete collapse in 2021. The arrest of Puigdemont proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that the Spanish Constitution denies freedom of expression and human rights. Puigdemont did not engage in violence and thus is simply a political prisoner and Germany is endorsing the dictatorship of Spain.
No one in the EU leadership stand for public election either. No wonder they too support Spain.
The Spanish Constitution
PREAMBLE
The Spanish Nation, wishing to establish justice, liberty and security, and to promote the welfare of all who make part of it, in use of her sovereignty, proclaims its will to:
Guarantee democratic life within the Constitution and the laws according to a just economic and social order.
Consolidate a State ensuring the rule of law as an expression of the will of the people.
Protect all Spaniards and all the peoples of Spain in the exercise of human rights, their cultures and traditions, languages and institutions.
Promote the progress of culture and the economy to ensure a dignified quality of life for all
Establish an advanced democratic society, and
Collaborate in the strengthening of peaceful and efficient cooperation among all the peoples of the Earth.
Consequently, the Cortes approve and the Spanish people ratify the . . . Constitution.
ARTICLE 155
If a Self-governing Community [e.g., Catalonia] does not fulfil the obligations imposed upon it by the Constitution or other laws, or acts in a way that is seriously prejudicial to the general interest of Spain, the Government, after having lodged a complaint with the President of [that] Self-governing Community and failed to receive satisfactory response, may, following approval granted by the overall majority of the Senate, take all measures necessary to compel the Community to meet said obligations, or to protect the abovementioned general interest.
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With a view to implementing the measures provided for in the foregoing paragraph, the Government may issue instructions to all the authorities of the Self-governing Communities.
QUESTION: The Fed says it will raise rates two or three times more this year. My question is this: If the stock market is crashing, why are they still raising rates?
HW
ANSWER: The Fed is raising rates because they must be NORMALIZED given the pension crisis. They are trying to get then back up and if they could, they would jack them up to 8%. If you can imagine, a pension fund under normal conditions needs 8% annual. Even CalPERS came in at 7% and they were insolvent. Rates are rising because of the pension crisis, not because the economy is really heating up or the stock market is booming. The technical resistance stands at the Downtrend Line at the 3% level. Rates will double to reach that area faster than people suspect.
We have a Directional Change due in May and look at the August/September period where we also have a Panic Cycle. Things are not going to be as smooth-sailing as many believe. We have a very RARE Double Monthly Bullish Reversal at 2.25%. A monthly closing above that level and 5% will be seen in a matter of months.
The passage of the defense spending portion of the Omnibus bill ultimately means there will be increased demand for U.S. steel and aluminum within new defense equipment. The contracts within the procurement process will predictably require the use of U.S. parts.
Add the increase in defense spending with the pending global tariffs on steel imports, and the environment is created for foreign investment in domestic steel and metal manufacturing…. Then add into the mix the geopolitical economic relationship developed between India’s Prime Minister Modi and President Trump… And you discover the backdrop for this announcement from India owned JSW Steel:
(Reuters) – India’s JSW Steel Ltd said on Monday it would spend $500 million to build out its U.S. operations in Texas, amid heightened global trade tensions following U.S President Donald Trump’s decision to pursue steep import tariffs.
The company has signed an agreement with the Texas governor’s office, under which the governor has approved a grant worth $3.4 million to the company’s unit, the steelmaker said in a statement here.
The unit, JSW USA, sells high-quality carbon plates to the energy, petrochemicals, defense and other heavy equipment industries.
The company will use $150 million of the funds to improve and modernize its plant in Baytown, Texas, while the rest will fund a new facility, it said. (read more)
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Remember, a key part of MAGAnomics is changing the investment dynamic where the ‘best play’ is to invest in the U.S.
The entire landscape of modern geopolitics is an assembly of various nations specifically focused on their economic interests. Fundamentally, the economics of a nation is the cornerstone for their ability to hold, advance, influence and present their ideology.
Without the underlying economic capability to provide sustainability and stability, the nation, any nation, cannot maintain itself regardless of the underlying political outlook. In short, as the old verse presents: “money makes the world go ’round“. Everything boiled down to it’s essential core – is about economics.
The shock to the system of modern multinational financial interests was created by an earthquake known as Trump; which created a seismic shift via the 2016 U.S. presidential election outcome.
The tectonic political and economic shift was so unsettling to the global elites -who created a decades-long system of global financial interests- they have been thrashing around desperate to regain footing ever since.
All modern political alliances are based on this economic reality, and every single action taken by every member within each grouping is based on their affiliated and interconnected self-interest in the underlying economic equation.
At first, every nation positioned themselves to push-back against a realignment in geopolitical power based on the nationalistic economic shifting created by U.S. President Donald J. Trump. However, as time progresses, and the clear strategy of President Trump begins to take shape, allies and adversaries have begun to accept that POTUS Trump is not going to retreat. Access to a $20 trillion U.S. market is the biggest economic leverage in the world.
It doesn’t matter which continent you point to. If you pull back to the larger view and overlay the economic maneuvering you will find the reason behind the strategic relationship always revolves around economics. War or peace, it’s all about the economics within the equation.
If you scale market economies on a linear continuum according to freedom (size of government in their economic market), and line up the individual nations as flags according to their political outlook on the same linear scale, you will quickly see how the groups cluster in both political ideology and similar economics. [Big government communist nations cluster together; big government socialist nations cluster together; and smaller government fair markets cluster together.] It has always been thus.
The scale of market freedom, in direct proportion to the wealth of the individual within each nation, is the one constant in an ever changing universe.
This is the essential issue with global trade agreements which seek to enjoin free/fair market nations within larger trade deals that also encompass more socialistic political forms of governance. It simply doesn’t work. Generally speaking the free/fair market nations get screwed because they are forced to acquiesce to the insufferable dictates -and rules- of the big government institutional nations. (TTIP and TPP examples)
President Trump has assembled economic SME’s (Subject Matter Experts)to deal with this geopolitical dynamic. Each person specifically skilled to navigate this complex network of internal interests. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, Trade Rep. Robert Lighthizer, AG Secretary Sonny Perdue, Energy Secretary Rick Perry, and more recently Trade Adviser Peter Navarro.
Each cabinet member has a role within the larger dynamic that is a policy of economic patriotism benefiting the U.S.A.
New trade deals are being negotiated; NAFTA (Canada and Mexico), Vietnam, South Korea, Australia, ASEAN nations, and then China and the EU [with U.K. coming as soon as Brexit negotiations are complete].
All of the currently visible political alliances, like those witnessed within the G20, are based on their positioning for these upcoming trade deals. Every supportive or antagonistic expression by each of these nation states is directly tied to their positioning for trade leverage and negotiation with the U.S.
The MSM will sell visible and spoken differences of opinion, differences of political ideologies, and newly formed alliances around a narrative of nations being anti-Trump. The media like to focus on the cult of personality to create their discussion segments; but that’s nowhere near the full measure of what’s behind international alliances. The actual motives are the underlying economic determinations within each nation.
It has been so long since U.S. economic power was used to the benefit of the U.S., there’s an entire generation that has no concept of this underlying reasoning for national friendliness, or lack thereof, toward each other. We have given away so much national economic wealth many people have forgotten how to accumulate or compete for it.
The ‘We-Are-The-World‘ type leftist globalism (fair share economics) has been pushed for so long, that many people have completely forgotten what it looks like when nations look out for their own unique economic best interests, and actually strive to achieve them.
Heck, many younger Americans may never have seen the competition at all.
Economic competition, territorial economics, is what drives each nation to excel and innovate. The unexpected aspect, buried by almost all media, is how President Trump is empowering all nations to reevaluate their trade status by confronting a global trade system that was diminishing sovereignty.
Perhaps as early as this week we should anticipate hearing about completion a significant trade agreement with South Korea. The deal is known as “KORUS” (KOR+U.S.), and has been in negotiations for over a year.
Part of the recent agreement within the auto-sector of the deal, between Moon Jae-in and President Donald Trump, via Lighthizer and Ross, is an exemption of U.S. steel tariffs for South Korea in exchange for a doubling of U.S. auto exports; from 25,000 to 50,000 American made cars, per U.S. automaker, per year. (link)
The results within KORUS exhibit the intended outcome of the global tariff proposal from President Trump as leverage to enhance the administration policy of reciprocity. The world is taking notice, and China is now beginning to signal their understanding of President Trump leading the international discussion of reciprocal trade.
The unspoken background is that all nations, who have acquiesced to the overwhelming demands of China’s trade position, are now beginning to reassess the value of President Trump confronting the equation head-on. Ultimately it is beginning to sink-in that all nations can benefit from correcting a trade imbalance within their own position. In essence, U.S. President Trump is moving the entire global trade dynamic.
The timing for a U.S. leveraged KORUS deal could not be better. On the geopolitical stage President Trump, through his sheer will, has thrown open the doors to a denuclearized Korean peninsular and is about to engage in direct discussions with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
The ramifications for peace on the Korean peninsular, and the economic outcomes therein, are seismic for South East Asia. Thus we see today stunning reports of Kim Jong-un heading to Beijing for discussions of unknown substance.
There is no doubt both Kim Jong-un (DPRK) and Chinese President/Chairman Xi Jinping must engage in talks about the ramifications. China has long used the DPRK as a proxy province for their own geopolitical strategy against the U.S. and western interests.
POTUS Trump using economic leverage to break down the walls of totalitarian regimes is a stunning position for two nations (China and DPRK) who must have thought such an action would be unconscionable a mere eighteen months ago.
Incredible times of jaw-dropping consequence. Because, ‘His Excellency’ Trump.
The Era of the Economic Titan is Back!
PS. A U.S./South Korea trade deal enhances the backdrop, and leverage, of U.S. position toward NAFTA. Canada and Mexico have aligned with the TPP multilateral trade deal. POTUS Trump is negotiating bi-lateral deals with nations within TPP (Japan, Australia, Vietnam, South Korea all ongoing).
Omar Mateen was the Islamic terrorist who attacked the Pulse Nightclub in Orlando Florida in June of 2016 killing 49 people. Mateen’s wife Noor Salman is currently going through trial for assisting her husband leading up to the attack.
Previously it was disclosed Omar Mateen was on the radar of the FBI and interviewed prior to the attack for threatening Sheriff’s deputies. Stunningly, it is revealed today the shooter’s father Seddique Mateen was an FBI informant from 2005 through 2016.
ORLANDO – […] Mateen’s father was the subject of motion by Salman’s defense late Sunday, asking for the case against to be thrown out or declared a mistrial and arguing prosecutors failed to disclose that Seddique Mateen is a former confidential informant for the FBI.
Omar Mateen’s father was also investigated after agents assigned to the shooting case found receipts for money transfers to Turkey and Afghanistan, according to the motion filed by Salman’s defense. U.S. District Judge Paul Byron said he would consider the motion later today.
“I’m not going to address it right now,” he said. “It’s gonna take too much time.”
[…] Mateen’s father, Seddique Mateen, was on the government’s witness list but was never called to testify. His wife, Shahla Mateen, testified. According to the newly filed motion, Seddique Mateen acted as an informant at various points in time between January 2005 and June 2016.
However, he also was found to have made money transfers to Turkey and Afghanistan during the period between March 16, 2016 and June 5, 2016 — a week before the Pulse attack. (read more)
The Spanish government has shown to the entire world that it denies human rights and has absolutely no democratic principles whatsoever. The next step is for the pretend elected government to declare a perpetual state of emergency and suspend all elections nationwide to complete what is rapidly becoming a dictatorship. Thousands in Catalonia have now rise4n up in protest against the Spanish government once again as the arrested the five leaders of the independence movement. The mood in Catalonia is turning more anti-Madrid and based upon the emails we are getting from Spain, many are now beginning to see that how the Spanish government is treating those in Catalonia means that the government views them as well as having no rights.
Clashes with police are being reported with at least 24 demonstrators injured, according to rescue workers. Independent journalists are reporting that policemen in Barcelona were using batons against demonstrators approaching the regional government building. Some demonstrators in Barcelona were even burning pictures of King Felipe VI, which is a crime in Spain. They were also burning photographs of judge Pablo Llarena, who ordered the arrests. The protesters waved Catalan flags and shouted “freedom for political prisoners”.
Spain refuses to respect human rights and Brussels has refused to defend the people because they too seek a dictatorship. The irony here is they have the guts to point the finger at Putin and China as suppressing democracy?
I have created this site to help people have fun in the kitchen. I write about enjoying life both in and out of my kitchen. Life is short! Make the most of it and enjoy!
This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
ANSWER: That is a hard question to answer. The computer can show me the region for conflict. That is determined by cyclical trends for each region yet at times it is augmented by a combination of capital flows. Picking things like the fall of communism back in 1989 and picking when the Berlin Wall would fall were based cyclically on the outcome of that trend. That was 72 years from the Russian Revolution of 1917. That was the perfect target for the volatility models within the ECM. Both converged so it made it really a piece of cake.
Centinel2012 