Hear Ye; Hear Ye;… it is officially announced, proposed, reactified and triggeringly proclaimed by the ICC that Froglegs vaccinations are once again available.
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Tag Archives: The Forecaster
Iran: Maybe This Time?
Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó Dispatches Insufferable BBC Pontificating Liberalism…
The BBC’s condescending Emily Maitlis demands support for the European Union and challenges the sovereign authority of Hungary to self-determination. Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó was having none of that nonsense, and pushed back against little Miss feelings.
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This occurs on the heels of Italy rebuking the EU immigration platform; and a weakened German Chancellor Angela Merkel having to beg political allies in Bavaria for support:
BERLIN (Reuters) – German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s political future rests in the hands of the Christian Social Union (CSU) on Sunday, when the Bavarian party’s leadership meets to decide whether to accept migration deals she brought back from Brussels.
Nine months after elections that saw her lose votes to the far right, a weakened Merkel was forced to turn to European Union neighbors to help resolve a conflict with her allies after they rebelled against her immigration policy.
The party’s leader, interior minister Horst Seehofer, threatened to turn migrants back from the Bavarian border, a move that would almost certainly precipitate a government collapse. (read more)
Apoplectic Trade Reactions From German Auto-Sector…
Within the German economy the auto-sector holds the largest political influence. Because of this dynamic all German politicians kneel at the knee of the big industrial auto manufacturers. It has been said that losing support from within the auto-sector is much worse on a German politician than losing support from party or parliament.
Because of this dynamic; and specifically because the German auto-sector is dependent on the United States as their biggest customer, President Trump holds leverage over German Chancellor Angela Merkel. This makes Fraulein Merkel unhappy.
President Trump wants three EU issues resolved: 1) Germany to contribute the minimum 2% of GDP for their own NATO defense. 2) Germany/EU to support enhanced sanctions against Iran; and 3) President Trump wants all German/EU protectionist trade barriers and tariffs lowered or eliminated – and new trade deals negotiated.
To gain momentum on these initiatives, President Trump is using the economics of trade as leverage. Trump has suggested a 20% tariff on all EU automobiles shipped into the U.S. [The same standard now likely proposed toward Canada] The German auto-sector, and as a consequence the German economy, simply cannot survive without low cost access to the U.S. market, their biggest customer.
Immediately following the election (December 2016), President Trump warned BMW (and others) about opening a manufacturing plant in Mexico; Trump suggested such a decision might backfire. BMW ignored the warning and contracted with Mexico for an auto plant with intentions to use NAFTA to bring the completed cars to market.
The plant is anticipated to be operational in 2019; however, it is now increasingly likely that NAFTA will be dissolved and President Trump is threatening a 20% auto-tariff to any imported cars. Accordingly, despite the prior warning, BMW is now going bananas:
BMW was planning on using the NAFTA loophole to assemble EU auto parts in Mexico for duty-free transport into the U.S. However, now there’s a likelihood the BMW sedans planned to be built in Mexico could be subject to U.S. tariffs and they cannot gain benefit from the NAFTA loophole.
BMW builds SUV’s in Spartanburg, South Carolina. The reason they build them there is due to a 25% pre-Trump existing tariff on imported SUV’s. It looks like BMW made a bad decision to build an car plant in Mexico; although their position as expressed within the Reuters article fails to mention this aspect at all. Obviously they don’t mention the 2016 warning from President-Elect Trump either. {{{snicker}}}
Meanwhile, President Trump just keeps applying more layers of winnamin leverage upon the desk of German Chancellor Angela Merkel:
Poland has offered to host a smaller contingent of U.S. forces; and Poland already fully meets their obligations to NATO defense spending. Funny how that happens.
The Pentagon is analyzing the cost and impact of a large-scale withdrawal or transfer of American troops stationed in Germany, amid growing tensions between President Trump and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, according to people familiar with the work.
The effort follows Trump’s expression of interest in removing the troops, made during a meeting earlier this year with White House and military aides, U.S. officials said. Trump was said to have been taken aback by the size of the U.S. presence, which includes about 35,000 active-duty troops, and complained that other countries were not contributing fairly to joint security or paying enough to NATO.
Word of the assessment has alarmed European officials, who are scrambling to determine whether Trump actually intends to reposition U.S. forces or whether it is merely a negotiating tactic ahead of a NATO summit in Brussels, where Trump is again likely to criticize U.S. allies for what he deems insufficient defense spending. (read more)
Anyone noticing a pattern?
Interestingly, two Canadians are able to connect the dots very easily.
Ezra Levant of Rebel Media and Manny Montenegrino, President & CEO Think Sharp Inc. discuss the dynamic and obvious comparisons and parallels.
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“Complicated business folks,… Complicated business”
Reports: Justin From Canada Calls President Trump to Talk Tariffs and NAFTA…
Interesting how two different articles (Reuters HERE) and (CBC HERE) hit on the same issue; a call between Prime Minister Justin from Canada and U.S. President Trump. According to both reports Justin from Canada reached out prior to the listing of the counter tariffs to the U.S. Steel and Aluminum duties.
BEDMINSTER, N.J./OTTAWA (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump spoke with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau late on Friday to discuss trade and other economic issues, White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders said on Saturday.
During the call, Trudeau told Trump that Canada had no choice but to announce reciprocal countermeasures to the steel and aluminum tariffs, according to a separate statement issued by Canada late on Friday. The two leaders agreed to stay in close touch on a way forward, the statement added.
Separately, Trudeau also spoke with Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto on Friday to discuss the Mexican elections on July 1. The two leaders also discussed the North American Free Trade (NAFTA) negotiations and agreed to continue working toward a mutually beneficial outcome. (read more)
Note anything missing?
There’s no mention of any response, in any way, not even inferred, from President Trump. The report is uni-directional…. Justin is doing all the talking…. Meaning POTUS Trump is going silent and deep; which is his exact historic pattern. Not good news for Justin and Chrystia from Canada.
Portends a seismic hammer-blow on the next phase…. auto-tariffs.
Here’s the CBC version:
(Via CBC) Two days before Canada’s retaliatory tariffs against U.S. steel, aluminum and some consumer goods are set to take effect, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau spoke with U.S. President Donald Trump by phone explaining Canada had no choice but to act.
According to a readout of the call provided by the Prime Minister’s Office, Trudeau began the conversation by expressing his condolences for the victims of the mass shooting at an Annapolis, Maryland, newspaper before going on to talk about trade.
“As he has said in past conversations and in public,” the readout said. “The Prime Minister conveyed that Canada has had no choice but to announce reciprocal countermeasures to the steel and aluminum tariffs that the United States imposed on June 1, 2018.”
Trudeau also spoke by phone with President Enrique Peña Nieto of Mexico. Trudeau updated the president on Canada’s tariffs on U.S. imports, according to the readout, which also said the two leaders discussed “the North American Free Trade negotiations and agreed to continue working toward a mutually beneficial outcome.” (read more)
Same/Same…. only worse… note the absence of something like ‘President Trump thanked the Prime Minister for’; or “the two leaders plan to”… etc. blah, blah, blah.
Nothing.
Silence.
What you do speaks so loudly I cannot hear a word you’re saying.
Paris Treaty discussions… same/same.
Silence.
TPP discussions…. same/same.
Silence.
Now NAFTA… same/same.
Silence.
The absence of words in Trump-speak-strategy is a much more predictive indicator than a policy outline or interview. If Trump is talking, you’ve got a chance for a deal. When Trump stops talking, it’s over. Trump doesn’t bluff. Further words become annoying. Wastes time. POTUS Trump lets people read into the absence of words. When Donald Trump goes silent, POTUS Trump already knows what he is going to do, the rest is just timing of it….
Silence is deadly in negotiations with Trump. You would think people would catch on to that by now; however, thankfully they never do.
The Art of the Deal: Dishonesty. The fatal flaw.
Take trust out of the deal, and no deal.
Now, take the worst case scenario you could ever fathom for Justin from Canada; and the Canadian economy….
Double it….
Double it again….
You still haven’t scratched the surface of how apex predators relish delivering consequences…. and how ‘killers’ is not just a campaign adjective; it’s also a policy verb.
Consider your business affairs accordingly.
Trump doesn’t bluff. Deal, or no deal; there’s no room to care about feelings.
ICE Director Thomas Homan Delivers Message To Congress and Media…
Retiring ICE Director Thomas Homan had a message for congress, politicians and media on his last day in office. Namely all need to get their facts straight.
President Trump Will Release Name of Supreme Court Nominee Monday, July 9th…
There has been a great deal of speculation about who President Trump will nominate to replace retiring Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy. Earlier today President Trump revealed he will announce the nominee on Monday July 9th:
Democrats and far-left activists have vowed to do everything possible to stop any nominee from being confirmed. All political opposition is beyond bananas on this issue.
President Trump has stated his intention to make the nominee from a previously compiled list, with a few additions. The potential nominees are:
- Amy Coney Barrett of Indiana, U.S. Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit
- Keith Blackwell of Georgia, Supreme Court of Georgia
- Charles Canady of Florida, Supreme Court of Florida
- Steven Colloton of Iowa, U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit
- Allison Eid of Colorado, U.S. Court of Appeals for the Tenth Circuit
- Britt Grant of Georgia, Supreme Court of Georgia
- Raymond Gruender of Missouri, U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit
- Thomas Hardiman of Pennsylvania, U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit
- Brett Kavanaugh of Maryland, U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit
- Raymond Kethledge of Michigan, U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit
- Joan Larsen of Michigan, U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit
- Mike Lee of Utah, United States Senator
- Thomas Lee of Utah, Supreme Court of Utah
- Edward Mansfield of Iowa, Supreme Court of Iowa
- Federico Moreno of Florida, U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Florida
- Kevin Newsom of Alabama, U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eleventh Circuit
- William Pryor of Alabama, U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eleventh Circuit
- Margaret Ryan of Virginia, U.S. Court of Appeals for the Armed Forces
- David Stras of Minnesota, U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit
- Diane Sykes of Wisconsin, U.S. Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit
- Amul Thapar of Kentucky, U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit
- Timothy Tymkovich of Colorado, U.S. Court of Appeals for the Tenth Circuit
- Robert Young of Michigan, Supreme Court of Michigan (Ret.)
- Don Willett of Texas, Supreme Court of Texas
- Patrick Wyrick of Oklahoma, Supreme Court of Oklahoma
My only hunch is that the nominee will be female.
What are Ancient Coin Hoard so Vital to History
Armstrong Economics Blog/Ancient Economies
Re-Posted Jun 30, 2018 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Sir; I have noticed that the Roman and Greek hoards of coins you have offered are silver. You do not offer hoards of bronze coins. I have two questions. First, are broze hoards less common? Second, why have you been a buyer of large hoards to begin with?
Thank you
LW
ANSWER: There are hoards of bronze coins from the 3rd century that are found. However, bronze corrodes easily. Therefore, the hoards that do exist are far too often not really salable because the condition is typically quit poor. I do have one small hoard from the early 3rd century that begins with Maximinus I (235-238AD) who really begins the major decline of the Roman Monetary System when he targeted the rich and simply declare that everything they owned belonged to the Empire, a very early version of Marxism. I will make this available, but there are only about 100 bronze sestertius that was the main unit of account. The condition is excellent for bronze since there are not corroded.
I also have a later 3rd century hoard of antoninianius which were once silver and had been debased to bronze silver plated. This was a hoard I purchased back in the late 1980s with over 10,000 coins. However, the salable coins were probably less than 3,000.
I have the other part of the Alexander the Great silver hoard. This was mostly drachms, but there are some tetradrachms as well perhaps about 100. Now, as to why I have purchased hoards over the decades is simply that they provide a snapshot of the economy at that point in time. This demonstrates what was in circulation and a hoard can be dated by the last coin included and this has correlated with periods of economic stress.
Now, in the case of this Alexander hoard, intermixed you find contemporary imitations that are struck on the outskirts of the empire. Here are contemporary imitations that were inside the hoard. They are generally of the proper weight, but you will notice that there is some small parts that are corroded. This reflects that the silver was not properly refined.
Here is a jug I purchased also back in the early 1990s. It contained the small reduced bronze coins toward the collapse of the Roman Empire. Despite the fact that they were inside a jug, you will notice that they we covered in corrotion to varying degrees. Therefore, the find was more valuable as a snapshot of the economy rather than as a hoard of salable coins.
In 2007, there was a huge hoard disovered in England with over 50,000 coins. Again, they were bronze and it was a mixed find where some of the coins in the center were salable and others were interesting snapshots, but corroded.
These type of hoards from the 3rd century exist because of the stressful period both politically as well as economically. This is also when the barbarian invasions were beginning and as I have stated before, it was Aurelian who constructed the wall around Rome to protect it from the barbarians in 270AD, which was not needed previously.
Large hoards are typically found burried in pottery. In a southern Spanish park, construction workers dicovered a 1,300-pound hoard of Roman coins. A Viking hoard, the second such large hoard discovered in Sweden, has been unearthed revealing that the majority of the coins are from the Arab world. Hoard of this nature demonstrate how the trade routes fundctioned. Hoards are discovered in Asia and the Middle East. A hoard was disovered in Israel with Greek tetradrachms from the 2nd century BC. Roman coins have even been discovered in Japan. This has opened a lot of questions as to how did 4th century Roman coins end up in Japan.
Not all hoard have been because of economic stress. One of the most famous hoards was stashed away because of a volanic eruption. The Boscoreale Treasure/Hoard is the name for a large collection of Roman gold coins along with exquisite silver and gold Roman objects discovered in the ruins of an ancient villa at Boscoreale, near Pompeii, southern Italy. Consisting of about the 1,350 gold aurei, which included 637 gold coins of Nero alone. This one hoard was worth 135,000 sesterces, which was more than half the tolal value of coins discovered in Pompeii itself. There were also over 100 pieces of silverware, as well as gold jewellery. The disovery of objects is now mostly kept at the Louvre Museum in Paris, although parts of the treasure can also be found at the British Museum. The coins were sold over time to collectors.
The precious metal objects from the Boscoreale Treasure were illegally exported from Italy and were purchased on the black market by Baron Edmond de Rothschild (1845-1934), who donated it to the Louvre Museum in 1896. It appears that the objects were deliberally hidden in the storehouse prior to the eruption of Mt. Vesuvius. The name written on many of the containers was Maxima. A woman was found dead in the ruins, but we do not know if she was Maxima or a servant who stayed behind. The villa appears to have been owned by Maxima’s father L. Caecilius Jucundus, who was a banker from Pompeii. This one hoard was a substantial cash reserve of the banker. That makes sense given the vast wealth in coins discovered. He also seems to have inherited the wealth of the Julio-Claudian dynasty in Campania. Jucundus had a villa in Pompeii as well and his banking records have survived.
Boscoreale is well known to Roman numismatists as the find spot of a hoard of about 1,350 gold aurei, the latest of which dates to 78AD whereas the volcanic eruption from Mount Vesuvius on August 24, AD 79 burried the villa in ash. The villa remained undisturbed until 1876. The coin hoard lay undiscovered for almost another 30 years. Unfortunately, there was no formal study of the Boscoreale coins made before they were dispersed into the market. There was a list pubished 1909 which included material from other finds as well.
Nonetheless, thre three coins illustrated above all have a very distinctive feature that identifies them from Boscoreale. This is their deep-red toning. The Boscoreale Hoard was discovered in the water cistern of a villa, where the owner had hidden it fearing an impending catastrophe. Perhaps, the hoard was stashed when the eruption began. However, what killed the people was the deadly pyroclastic cloud which engulfed the region. It was the resulting intense heat of which imbued all the gold coins with the beautiful red toning that we now see almost 2000 years later.
The coins were sold and there was often written tages noting their origin such as an aureus of Nero from the A. J. Fecht bequest to the American Numismatic Society from 1948 which had an original tag that noted: “ex Boscoreale find, Pompeii, 1898”. We should not underestimate the total currency stock or supply held by non-aristocrats living in the Pompei. The fugitives who died in room 10 of the Villa in Oplontis carried with them over 18,000 sesterces worth in cash. Life in Pompeii did not stop instantaneously when Vesuvius erupted. Fugitives took valuables and money with them. The coins found with skeletons are a mix of savings, daily earnings, and pocket money. The coins found in the shops and houses reflect what fugitives left behind. Looting and salvaging after the eruption further complicate the picture.
The average size of the hoards is six times the yearly subsistence for an adult at that point in time yet the number of persons depending on this money or the time span over which the hoards were formed is unknown. Therefore, the discovery of the hoards from pompei are more complicated than the hoards discovered elsewhere in times of economic and political uncertainty. These type of hoards reflect generally one person which is different from the hoards of Pompeii itself as distinguished from the banker’s hoard or cash reserves reflected in the Boscoreale discovery.
I will prepare some of the coins from hoards for clients to select. It just takes time to ensure which coins are of sufficient grade to offer in the first place.
Another Volcano Erupts in Indonesia
Armstrong Economics Blog/Nature
Re-Posted Jun 30, 2018 by Martin Armstrong
We now have another volcano erupting in the Pacific. The second one happened in Indonesia. Mount Agung on the Indonesian island began to erupt on Thursday forcing evacuations. More than 400 flights had to be cancelled because planes cannot fly through volcanic eruptions. I have been warning that simply correlating all the data illustrates that when the energy output of the sun declines moving into solar minimum, this is when we historically see a sharp rise in volcanic eruptions. The exact cause is not my job to figure out. It probably has some link to gravity.
Nevertheless, the greater the number of volcanic eruptions, the greater trend we will see toward global cooling and that can lead to crop failures and famine. This has NOTHING to do with my personal opinion or some theory I have concocted to support a predetermined conclusion. This is simply the correlation, plain and to the point. I will leave it to someone else to explain the cause. I am merely pointing out what has come out of our computer model that is tracking everything. This is NOT me making some opinion or lucky guess. It is what it is, not me personally. It is also NOT something I would enjoy being correct on. I just report what comes out of the computer.
People have tried to see if they can duplicate our model. I really get a chuckle out of that. They expect to do it on the cheap by getting free data. Good luck on that one. I had crews go to the Royal Newspaper Library in London to work for more than a year to collect price quotes back to inception because most of the data required for long-term forecasts does not exist in public databases. I had to assemble the massive collection of monetary history to actually track the economy back into ancient times. The scope of the data to even test such correlations is massive. This stuff cannot be accomplished by free downloads. I discovered what I have called a Waterfall Event by putting the Roman monetary system together to answer a simple question: How did Rome fall? Was it gradual or abrupt?
I have been fortunate in life. I was able to make enough money to fund a research project that no one else seems to have been willing to spend the same time or money on. It was simply a passion of mine because I enjoy history. I was also not married so I had the time to do what my passion inspired me to do. Everyone always asks when will I get married. I respond, 1) when I meet the right person, and 2) when I grow up.
Until then, I simply follow my passion. Life is a journey or a quest for the pursuit of knowledge. When there is nothing left to learn, it is time to be beamed up. Just my personal philosophy. So enjoy the pursuit of knowledge. You never know where it will lead us.
NEC Larry Kudlow: “The U.S. is the Hottest Economy in the World”…
With new spark plugs, Kuddles was thrilled to discuss the latest economic key performance indicators. National Economic Council Chairman Larry Kudlow talks about the health and growth of the U.S. economy with Maria Bartiromo.
Centinel2012 