Posted originally on Jul 15, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
Confidence in the very structure of the nation has been shaken amid this private wave where all trust in the government has been lost. A new Pew Research Center poll found that 72% of Americans believe the United States – the land of the free – is no longer a good example of democracy.
Those 72% say that America was once a good example of a democracy for other nations to follow, with only 19% still trusting in its structure. Americans over 50 trust in democracy a bit more than younger generations (11% vs 4%) likely because they are less likely to face the new reality of our broken economy where the American Dream is no longer attainable.
Those most closely aligned to America in terms of economics are more likely to say the US is no longer a good example of democracy (Canada 67%, Japan 65%, UK 63%). Younger generations everywhere now believe America was never a good example of democracy as they have only seen the nation in a state of geopolitical upheaval.
A separate poll with information from Pew Research Center, National Election Studies, Gallup, ABC/Washington Post, CBS/New York Times, and CNN surveys, Americans were if they trust the government. Trust heightened, in line with the ECM, in 1964 under President Johnson with a trust rating of 77%. Trust plummeted when President Nixon became the first president to resign in 1974, with the moving average then standing at 36%. Individual polls then showed confidence moving to a new low of 25% by the end of President Carter’s administration, in line with the economy as always.
Trust in government then peaked at the beginning of George W. Bush’s term in office, with individual polls rising to 60% in 2001 and overall stats hitting 54%. Now, 2001 marked the 9/11 terrorist attack on the Twin Towers that shook the nation at its core, spreading a wave of patriotism across the United States. Everyone trusted that the government would seek revenge and keep the nation safe from future attacks. We permitted countless laws to pass, like the Patriot Act, because we trusted the government to protect us.
By the end of George W. Bush’s term, no one knew what we were doing in the Middle East and were questioning the “weapons of mass destruction” premise. Individual polls plummeted from 60% to a mere 17% in 2008, with overall sentiments not faring much better at 24%. Trust in government has never surpassed 30% on either poll since.
The moving average of trust in the US government now sits at 22%. Politics have never been more divided. The majority of the country questions in the president is mentally fit to serve. Congress is blatantly corrupt. The coronavirus pandemic changed everything and shook the nation as badly as 9/11, but the people ran from government rather than towards it.
Our computer indicates the American economy subtly slipped into a recession, and things will worsen until 2028. We find this same phenomenon of trust in government declining globally and it is all in line with the Economic Confidence Model. Distrust will only grow as economic conditions worsen. By 2032, as indicated by the models, we will have a chance to rebuild and regrow at the end of the Sixth Wave, which will be the equivalent to the fall of ancient Rome.
Posted originally on Jul 4, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
Back in 2008, I named a report after what Margaret Thatcher had told me about politics. I began that report by writing:
Time is but a dimension that we divide up to mark its passing. Western thought, unfortunately, is linear, not dynamic. This has been the curse of Western understanding and knowledge. Time is but a cycle – a circle. Asians are raised with the idea of cycles leading to a more dynamic thinking process. Some see and feel cycles, and some see it as necessary and instinctively understand them. Lady Margaret Thatcher once commented to me that the Conservatives would lose the elections in Great Britain when John Major was running, she said – “It’s just time.”
Lady Thatcher came and spoke at our conference on cycles. She said.
Today’s British election is underway, and we will see a sweep where Labour will replace Conservatives, who have acknowledged that Labour appears headed for victory and urged voters not to hand the party a “supermajority.” Britain’s Prime Minister Rishi Sunak insisted “the outcome of this election is not a foregone conclusion.” However, in a message to voters on Wednesday, Sunak said that “if the polls are to be believed, the country could wake up tomorrow to a Labour supermajority ready to wield their unchecked power.”He urged voters to back the Conservatives to limit Labour’s power. The Conservatives have been more concerned about appeasing Anthony Blinken and the American quest to conquer Russia. To hell with the economy or the people. Britain was fully on board with the Globalists, which was precisely OPPOSITE of all the positions to retain independence from Europe, which were the core policies of Lady Thatcher.
I have done some interviews in Britain where the host reluctantly put me on the air because of my connection with Lady Thatcher and their obstinacy about even trying to understand her policies. Many regard her as the most hated Prime Minister, all because they were used to handouts. They claim that she destroyed Britain’s manufacturing industry, and her policies led to mass unemployment. That was absurd, for the world was engulfed in the crisis at the time – not just Britain.
I advised companies that wanted to get into the EU and needed skilled labor to place them in Britain, while I placed those that needed the best tax deals, like airlines, in Ireland. Thatcher had heard that there was this guy rearranging companies and wanted to meet me. She asked me why I placed industries in Britain compared to other European countries. I explained that the cost per employee in other regulations was 40% less in Britain compared to Germany at the time.
Others argued that she presided over 15% interest rates. Again, that was not unique to Britain; it was a global trend. Most of the complaints about Thatcher were based on their ignorance of global trends. No single country can reverse a worldwide recession, no matter who the politician might be. The very best you can do is minimize the volatility and depth of the decline.
I did feel the public would never understand her reasoning regarding the poll tax. She felt that if people had skin in the game, this would limit government waste. But the people, I said, are like dogs. They are satisfied with the scraps from your table, not about jumping on your table and eating the whole meal. Others complain that she sowed the seeds of NHS Privatisation. I think Russia proved, as did ancient Byzantium, that the government is INCAPABLE of running anything efficiently. Those who hated Thatcher seemed to want to be taken care of and had no interest in their country.
What the self-centered haters of Thatcher refuse to understand, no less acknowledge, is that she SAVED Britain. I remember she said if she walked across the Thames River, they would say it was because she did not know how to swim. The coup staged against her by John Major and others was to take Britain into the fantasy land of the Euro. Major took Britain into the ERM and overvalued the pound, which led Soros to make his fortune thanks to John Major and others.
She knew that Tony Blair would win long before there were polls. When I asked why, she told me, “It’s Just Time.” She understood cycles better than any Western politician I have ever met. So while the ignorant still hate Margaret Thatcher, they will now get to see what voting for self-interest will do with promises of more money.
The one thing I have learned from our computer is that if you turn the economy around with these Economic Confidence Model turning points, you will get political change. What is sweeping the world is that 60% of it is going to an election, and WHOEVER is in power is just being thrown out. The Globalists have been trying to take over everything, creating their dream of a one-world government headed by the United Nations with the elimination of our right to vote on anything. Their dream is a global dictatorship. Democracy must end as part of their agenda. It is refreshing to see Macron in trouble, as is Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. World leaders like Trudeau in Canada, Biden in the USA, and Ursula in the EU have a common goal – war against Russia at all costs and the creation of this one-world government bringing Democracy to an end. The people are responding regardless if they call themselves conservative, liberal, labour, or communist. Whoever is in power is taking the brunt of this global political shift.
Posted originally on Jun 26, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Marty, they called you Mr. Yen for good reason. I remember in 1998 when you sold $1 billion at 14700 on an MIT order (Market if Touched), and the dollar declined for 11 years thereafter. That 147 was your Yearly Bullish Reversal, which we blew through here in 2024, also on schedule. I remember that trade very well, and you said that if 147 were exceeded, the next stop would be 262. OK. We just hit 161. Are those forecasts from back then still valid?
TP
REPLY: Wow. You are still at it. My hat is off to you, as they say. Oh, I remember that trade very well. It was during the liquidity crisis with the collapse of Russia. Here is the Yen chart back to 1900. The primary resistance stands at the 210-212 level. We need 2024 to close above that Yearly Bullish Reversal at 147. Then, resistance will be below the Yearly Bullish Reversal of 262. It will form between 246 and 260. It appears to be a war on the horizon. Once the 262 level is exceeded, this points to 363, followed by 397 by the time we reach 2032.
I just returned from a trip to Venice, Italy, and a local tour guide informed me of the following about the Venetian Republic, some of which is similar and some of which is slightly different than what you’ve mentioned in the past:
1. it was the longest-lasting republic in the history of the world, lasting about 1100 years, abolished only by Napoleon’s threat, to whom it surrendered
2. its longevity was attributed to its ability to keep corruption in check, which it did by several methods: its senators were given one term, and were chosen by randomly drawing names out of a bowl, which contained the names of all the eligible citizens of Venice; in summary, about 200 of those randomly drawn names were chosen to be in a pool of candidates, of which only about 50 of those were chosen to be senators for that term, based on a selection interview.
3. the Venetian mouth, which you have represented in the past, was only used to submit names of people who were committing crimes against the republic, and any accusation had to be signed by two witnesses; if the accusation was false, then the accusers would/could be put to death.
I found #2 above particularly interesting, as it would be akin to the US randomly selecting names out of a phone book to be representatives or senators. . .
Take care,
L
REPLY: Yes, there has always been a rivalry as to the longest-lasting Republic claimed by Venice. That is true only because Rome from 750 BC to 476AD went through being ruled at first by kings, then a republic in 509 BC, and Imperial Rome began eclectically with Augustud being granted that title in 27 BC.
The Mouth of Truth began with anonymous tips, which were obviously abused and eventually reformed. Venice had its corruption. The Dige was for life, not one year. After he died, his estate was seized and investigated, and any uncovered corruption saw whatever assets were given to the Treasury.
I’m sure you also saw the famous “Bridge of Sighs” because once convicted of any crime, you crossed that bridge and went directly from the court to the prison or from their dungeon (from the torture room) to the court. Venice did not turn the other cheek.
What he did not tell you is that Venice was a quasi-fascist State insofar as the entire fleet was owned by the government, but there was some private ownership.
I’m unsure if he also told you that the Venetians were notorious pirates. Venice engaged in trade beginning from the late 8th Century, but this was the slave trade. During this very early period, Venice was engaged in the selling of slaves to the Arabs from the Carolingian-Sclaveian wars. The name of the “Slavic” people means servitude or slave. In the pactum Lotharii of 840 between Venice and the Carolingian Empire, Venice was finally forced to reform and promised not to buy Christian slaves in the Empire and not to sell Christian slaves to Muslims.
Venice was also at the head of the Fourth Crusade, but instead of going after the Muslims, they laid siege to and conquered Byzantium. This is a painting of the “Latin Rulers” conquering Byzantium.
The Venetians even issued Their versions of Byzantine coins between 1204 and 1261AD.
Enrico Dandolo (c. 1107–1205) was the doge of Venice from 1192 until his death. He is remembered for his corruption and shrewdness. He is the Doge who killed Christians in the Sack of Constantinople. Dandolo died in 1205 in Constantinople and was buried at the Hagia Sophia, which today is the Blue Mosque.
You probably visited the Cathedral in St Mark’s Square. The Turks stole St Mark’s body from Egypt, and the four horses you see stood on a chariot of Constantine the Great in Byzantium. They also liberated them.
Nevertheless, Venice became a powerful maritime power. Thanks to its bankers, its coinage became the dominant coinage and was only eclipsed by Florence. The fact that its coinage was recognized in international trade much like the US dollar is today confirms that in India, after imitating Roman coins for hundreds of years, they imitated Venetian gold ducats as well.
We have an extensive database, and the debt crisis of Venice, which nobody seems to want to talk about, is included within it. The Venetian gold ducat, meaning the Duke’s coin, was probably the most famous, thanks to the commercial and maritime power of the Venetian Republic. However, before 1284, Venice used the coinage of Byzantium in trade – namely the Byzantine gold hyperpyra. The Venetians imported goods from the East and sold them at a profit north of the Alps.
Byzantine emperor Michael VIII Palaiologos (1261-1282) backed the revolt of the Sicilian Vespers in 1282, and the cost of that war forced him to debase the hyperpyron. This was just one more in a series of debasements, and the Great Council of Venice responded with its own coin of pure gold in 1284. The practice of debasement has preceded him.
The major debasement of the Byzantine coinage had begun under Constantine IX Monomachos (1042-1055), with the purity of the gold coinage falling from 24 carats to 18 carats during his reign. In 1041, the year before he came to the throne, the Histamenon Nomisma had a weight of about 3.96 grams with a gold content of about 90%. The very first year in 1042, the gold content was reduced to 87.5%. Constantine IX did not take his responsibilities as Emperor very seriously. He seems to have assumed that the wealth of the nation was his to spend as he desired. He squandered money profoundly and this appears to have been the initial reason for the beginning of the debasement. The gold nomisma fell to 87%.
Minted in Venice from 1284 onwards, the Ducat competed with the florin, the reference currency of Florence, minted since 1252, which until then had dominated financial exchanges in Europe. It weighed 3,545 grams and was 98.6% fine gold, a very high purity for the time.
We saw banking start to rise in Northern Italy, especially during the 13th century. In 1282, the Republic of Venice organized most public finance activities under its Grain Office, which subsequently did a banking business on behalf of the government. It was the start of what we might call a Treasury today. It accepted time deposits from wealthy citizens as well as foreigners. Like the US Treasury, the Grain Office advanced loans to government departments and private enterprises. It was not until 1587 that Venice established a public bank on the Rialto. It would take until 1619 before it created a public Giro Bank, where funds were paid between accounts. That is what Giro means. I can write you a check, and we both have accounts at the same bank. Venice was too attached to trade, and the government sought to monopolize it. Venice clearly did not rival Genoa or Florence in capital management matters because it was essentially a quasi-fascist state where the government sought to engage in trade business, and thus, entrepreneurship was lacking. Interestingly, the city of Venice won an exclusion from the Sin of Usury and was allowed to trade with the Arabs, including the slave trade.
Venice was not a Papal State, and it often opposed the Vatican. Venice, Tuscany, and Modena formed an antipapal league to protect Parma, and France intervened. Peace was concluded in Venice on March 31st, 1644, and Pope Urban died soon afterward.
So, while Venice is the longest Republic, the practice of one term of office and out was prevalent in Nothern Italy with republics in general. As far as the random selection of a representative, this was taken from Athens. Here is a Kleroterion where names would be selected at random to be a representative in government and even to serve on a jury.
This is actually the root of why the three major Athenian philosophers were anti-democratic. The real objection was that these people were selected randomly and lacked experience, intellect, or any skill to be in charge of anything, no less the welfare of the people.
Posted originally on Jun 21, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
Rather than being pesimistic, our future depends on understanding who is doing what. It has been the Neocons in the Biden Administration who have lived their entire lives hating Russians, and Victoria Nuland, Antony Bliken, and Merrick Garland are all Jewish who trace their roots to Ukraine and profess that their families suffered in the persecutions of Jews by the Russians. All three have weaseled their way to the top of the food chain, and with the absentee president, they have pushed the entire world to the brink of World War III. NOT A SINGLE member of Chongess will even dare to investigate what is happening. Nobody will stand up to defend our people or the future of our children and grandchildren.
The report is $35
The Democrats have flooded the country merely to retain power, and they do not charge about the people or the nation – it is just about retaining power. This 2024 will be a joke, and NOBODY will accept the outcome regardless of who wins. The days remaining in the like-expectancy of the United States are numbered. As I outlined in the special report on the Migrant Crisis, this will backfire on the Democrats, for the unskilled people they are flooding the country with will turn on Americans exactly as took place in ancient Rome when Emperor Valens did the same thing as Biden and opened the border. When they turned against the Romans, there was a huge battle, and even Emperor Vales was killed in that battle by the migrants.
The report is $10
I have laid out how the 2020 election was REALLY stolen – inside Congress, not by voting machines or people who counter votes twice. I have put this out for $10 because I fear they will do this again. Everyone would understand how it was really done using even COVID Rules that Pelosi imposed so not more than 53 people were allowed on the floor when any challenge must be debated before the full Congress. They may be preparing to use Bird Flu to support mail-in ballots, and the same scheme appears ready to replay.
The Global Positioning System (GPS) was launched on February 22nd, 1978. A nuclear explosion in the lower atmosphere would destroy all the satellites we use, even for targeting. Such a blast may even prevent future satellites from deploying for up to one year. The Neocons have their fake media out there saying Putin is desperate, and they have the audacity to say his nuclear weapons are old and would not operate. Everything they say is to make it sound that the West can easily defeat Russia.
Once upon a time, we had leaders who sought world peace. This book has a special place in my library. It was a great honor to have been called in by the Reagan Administration on economic concerns. I can tell you that the Neocons then OBJECTED to Reagan’s meeting with Gorbachev, and they advised him, “You can never trust a Russian.” If the Neocons ran the world, it would be in ashes by now. I have NEVER met people with hatred in their souls. They are consumed with hatred and should NEVER be allowed anywhere near the reigns of power.
All I can say – get off your ass. At least write to your PRETEND representative and ask why nobody is interested in peace anymore.
Posted originally on Jun 19, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I don’t mean to be disrespectful, but it certainly seems obvious just how many governments are using Socrates. The head of Serbia has come out and said we could be in World War III in three months. Orban came out and said NATO was “getting closer to war” every week, and he refused to participate in the alliance’s long-term plan to aid Ukraine, which Budapest has called a “crazy mission.
My question is, do you think Socrates influenced the time for this?
FD
ANSWER: I understand what you mean. That is actually the same theory as to why they put me in prison to shut me up. They always assume that events can be influenced by merely forecasting them. They believe in random walks because they are incapable of seeing the patterns. They try to manipulate society by themselves, attempting to steer us through their hoops just as they have lied to start every single war starting with Vietnam. Yet, when they have constantly been wrong, and their Keynesian Economic Models are failing, all I have ever heard is that I have manipulated the world economy only because the forecasts were correct. That proved it was not the model, but my influence.
I have paid the price for my discovery, and so has my family. There are those who want to force the world to respond as they desire, and all I do is say here is the cycle, and this will be the outcome. They do not like that. This is the secret cycle as the New Yorker called it, because they do not teach cyclical theory in universities because we have to be able to manipulate the future.
I was turned off by formal education because, in real science and physics class, they said there is nothing that is random, but in economics class, I was told everything is random so they can manipulate us to create their perfect world. I figured someone was a liar.
I went with Einstein rather than the Marxists. Yes, at this stage, many governments, companies, and individuals around the world subscribe to our services. It is not that they do as the forecast states. Many who disagree still want to know what we are saying.
Many have come to realize that the forecasts are NOT my personal opinion. Real, intelligent people have realized that LONG-TERM forecasts are infallible because a single factor does not change the course of the trend. We are headed into war because we have chronic fiscal mismanagement, and they need war as a distraction and to provide the excuse to default, and then a new government gets to start fresh all over again. That becomes inevitable, but the trend is set in motion, and the government will NEVER reform to save the nation when they must relinquish power.
Most people DO NOT comprehend how forecasting works or the global economy within which we live. There is the short-term NOISE, such as the share market may be up 300 points today and then down 500 tomorrow. Some wish to try to judge you based on that nonsense. The Global Market Watch has demonstrated that there are tens of thousands of patterns that make the short-term appear to be random – but nothing is random, and only a fool makes such an argument. All the numerous short-term trends combine into a single voice, and that resounds loudly through the hall of time and circumstance. It is like politics. Raise taxes, and you get civil unrest. Just look at most revolutions – they are over taxation. Yet politicians will increase taxes always to retain their position of power, and that inevitably leads to revolution. All of the daily ups and downs do NOT alter the long-term trend for that is set in motion that stretches back decades that cannot be altered.
This is why our model is divided by TIME. You can be a 7-day bullish trend on the daily level that is no more than a minor reaction on the Weekly level. The long-term trend cannot be altered by a single event. It is forged in the furnace of life where everything from climate and war to economics and politics combine to make the trend. As they say, such people cannot see the forest because they are focused on a single tree.
Back at the 2011 World Economic Conference in Philadelphia, which you can see in the video, I stood up and warned that the War Cycle would shift in 2014, and that was indeed on target with the Ukrainian Revolution – Maidan of 2014. But in 2013, still one year in advance, I warned:
So many wars have occurred in Crimea since ancient times that the sum of all the parts enabled the computer to pinpoint Ukraine, where this would all begin. Here is a coin of Nero issued for his intervention into Crimea – the Bosporus at the time.
The LONG-TERM forecasts are much easier to do than where the Dow closes tomorrow. When I die, they should play one of my favorite songs – Sinatra’s My Way!I was lucky to see him live once at the Latin Casino in Cherry Hill, New Jersey. Indeed, I did it my way, and I would not change the past, for that is what has taught me what I know today.
Posted originally on Jun 16, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
While we must first go through some hard times, we will NEVER reform until most people see that this is NOT going in the right direction. It is unbelievable. I was willing to give the benefit of the doubt to Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who rose to power from virtually nowhere. People were fed up with the BS of career politicians and the collapse of so many businesses and turned to a fresh face who was not a fascist or even a neo-fascist. She’s a right-wing populist-nationalist of a type who seems to be naive and has been conquered by the Neocon agenda. She is more likely to engulf Italy in World War III, but that seems to be the European Agenda as a distraction from the crisis unfolding, and the Euro is drowning in fiscal mismanagement.
The Italian share market began to crash one week after the turn in the Economic Confidence Model on May 7th. The major resistance stands at the 35000 level, and that is where the bounce effectively hits a wall of resistance. Meloni’s insane comment that Russia will be forced to surrender if the Kremlin does not agree to the terms of peace that the EU dictates to Russia is just unimaginable. According to Meloni, she made this comment during the broadcast of the second plenary session of the peace summit.
“Defending Ukraine means uniting all the efforts of the international community to protect Ukraine. If Russia does not agree to Ukraine’s terms, we will force it to surrender. We need to set the minimum conditions for this discussion.”
Her total lack of experience is precisely what the Neocons have counted on. She has joined the cheerleaders for World War III and the audacity, if not total ignorance, of the fact that it was the West and Kyiv that started this war intentionally to force Putin into World War III so they could conquer Russia and engage in genocide. Ukraine is the MOST disgusting, corrupt, and untrustworthy country on the face of this planet, and they WILL use whatever means to start World War III.
I apologize to those in Rome that I could not stay longer to meet with Meloni, which many wanted to arrange. But based on her recent comments, it is clear that the Neocons would have told her not to meet with me anyway. She has joined the warmongering crowd. I just hope this was not the last time I will ever see the Roman Forum.
These failed leaders, who are clearly incompetent to drive a taxi, are steering the world into World War III. This insane confrontation with Russia appears to be heating up in July. Putin is the ONLY adult in the room. He desperately keeps warning is this where you want to go?
I have always loved Rome. I was surprised at how many restaurants I used to go to have been closed and driven out of business thanks to COVID-19. Sorry to inform Italian readers, but you are headed into a recession, and with Giorgia Meloni taking directions from the Neocons instead of addressing the economic issues, we have the worst crop of leaders in modern history around the globe all hell-bent on creating war. Instead of being neutral, she has thrown Italy into the target zone.
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This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
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